Preprint Communication Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Modification of the Logistic Model for Epidemics and Application to the COVID-19 Epidemic of 2020 in the United States

Version 1 : Received: 24 May 2020 / Approved: 24 May 2020 / Online: 24 May 2020 (18:19:02 CEST)

How to cite: Roberts, D.H. Modification of the Logistic Model for Epidemics and Application to the COVID-19 Epidemic of 2020 in the United States. Preprints 2020, 2020050395 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0395.v1). Roberts, D.H. Modification of the Logistic Model for Epidemics and Application to the COVID-19 Epidemic of 2020 in the United States. Preprints 2020, 2020050395 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0395.v1).

Abstract

We present a modification of the logistic model of epidemics that takes into account the possibility that an epidemic can develop from multiple physically-distinct hot spots with a range of starting times. This produces an improved understanding of the time evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic taking place in the United States in the spring of 2020.

Subject Areas

epidemic; coronavirus; COVID-19; logistic

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