Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19

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Version 1 : Received: 13 July 2023 / Approved: 13 July 2023 / Online: 14 July 2023 (09:53:40 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Luo, L.; Lv, J. Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19. Viruses 2023, 15, 1788. Luo, L.; Lv, J. Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19. Viruses 2023, 15, 1788.


A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the spreading dynamics of COVID-19. By using the parameters of the model, namely the basic reproduction number (R0) and the attenuation constant (k), the daily number of infections (DNI) and the cumulative number of infections (CNI) are deduced and shown to be in good agreement with experimental data. This model effectively addresses three key issues: explaining the waveform pattern of DNI, predicting the occurrence of the second wave of infection, and understanding the competitive spread of two viruses in a region. The findings demonstrate that these significant challenges can be comprehensively tackled using a simple mathematical framework. The theoretical insights derived from this model hold potential in guiding the estimation of the severity of an infection wave and formulating effective strategies for the control and mitigation of epidemic outbreaks.


virus spread; COVID-19; mathematical model; daily number of infections; cumulative number of infections


Biology and Life Sciences, Life Sciences

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