Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

# Pandemic and the Dynamics of SEIR Model: Case COVID-19

Version 1 : Received: 20 April 2020 / Approved: 21 April 2020 / Online: 21 April 2020 (08:11:52 CEST)

How to cite: Kamrujjaman, M.; Ghosh, U.; Islam, M.S. Pandemic and the Dynamics of SEIR Model: Case COVID-19. Preprints 2020, 2020040378 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0378.v1). Kamrujjaman, M.; Ghosh, U.; Islam, M.S. Pandemic and the Dynamics of SEIR Model: Case COVID-19. Preprints 2020, 2020040378 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0378.v1).

## Abstract

Rapidly spreading disease, COVID-19 is classified as the human-to-human transmission-able disease and currently is a pandemic in the Globe. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models for COVID-19 outbreak and it's control measurement; quarantine, hospitalization and the effect of panic and anxiety. In this situation, mathematical models are a important tool to employ an effective strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Italy from $15^{th}$ Feb to $13^{th}$ April 2020. In a series of graphical map, we have presented the comparative study to estimate the current scenarios and to predict the control measurement time boundary of the outbreak.

## Subject Areas

coronavirus; SEIR model; stability analysis; COVID-19; numerical analysis