Version 1
: Received: 17 April 2020 / Approved: 19 April 2020 / Online: 19 April 2020 (02:21:53 CEST)
How to cite:
Xavier Jr, A. Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model. Preprints2020, 2020040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
Xavier Jr, A. Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model. Preprints 2020, 2020040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
Xavier Jr, A. Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model. Preprints2020, 2020040313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
APA Style
Xavier Jr, A. (2020). Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Xavier Jr, A. 2020 "Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
Abstract
This note applies the Logistic model approximation to determine the suitable start and end dates for the observed epidemic curves in the total number of cases for different countries. The Logistic model is presented and explicit relations for the beginning and end dates are obtained together with the total epidemic duration. Using data from Brazil, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the extreme dates are calculated. Since the epidemic onset time is found, a fair comparison of the epidemic curve for these countries is obtained. The result does not depend on the poor statistics available in the early phase of the epidemic when the initial number of infectives is unknown. In fact, the total duration depends only on the characteristic time parameter of the LM model.
Computer Science and Mathematics, Mathematical and Computational Biology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
