Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model​

Version 1 : Received: 17 April 2020 / Approved: 19 April 2020 / Online: 19 April 2020 (02:21:53 CEST)

How to cite: Xavier Jr, A. Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model​. Preprints 2020, 2020040313 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1). Xavier Jr, A. Estimating the Beginning and End Dates of Covid-19 for Several Countries Using the Logistic Model​. Preprints 2020, 2020040313 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1).

Abstract

This note applies the Logistic model approximation to determine the suitable start and end dates for the observed epidemic curves in the total number of cases for different countries. The Logistic model is presented and explicit relations for the beginning and end dates are obtained together with the total epidemic duration. Using data from Brazil, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the extreme dates are calculated. Since the epidemic onset time is found, a fair comparison of the epidemic curve for these countries is obtained. The result does not depend on the poor statistics available in the early phase of the epidemic when the initial number of infectives is unknown. In fact, the total duration depends only on the characteristic time parameter of the LM model.

Subject Areas

covid-19; forecast; epidemic; logistic model; pandemic

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