Preprint Review Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options

Version 1 : Received: 12 April 2020 / Approved: 20 April 2020 / Online: 20 April 2020 (06:18:33 CEST)

How to cite: Machanick, P. Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options. Preprints 2020, 2020040361 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0361.v1). Machanick, P. Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options. Preprints 2020, 2020040361 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0361.v1).

Abstract

Background: Early-stage interventions in a potential pandemic are important tounderstand as they can make the difference between runaway exponential growththat is hard to turn back and stopping the spread before it gets that far. COVID-19 is an interesting case study because there have been very different outcomesin different localities. These variations are best studied after the fact if precisionis the goal; while a pandemic is still unfolding less precise analysis is of value inattempting to guide localities in the early stages to learn lessons of those that pre-ceded them. Methods: I examine three factors that could differentiate strategy: asymptomaticspread, differences in use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) tuberculosis vac-cine and cloth face masks.Results:Differences in disease progression as well as the possibility of alternativestrategies to prevent COVID-19 from entering the runaway phase or damping itdown later can be elucidated by a study of asymptomatic infection. A study todemonstrate not only what fraction are asymptomatic but how contagious they arewill also inform policy on universal mask wearing. Conclusions: While a COVID-19 outbreak is at a level that makes accurate trace-and test possible, investigation of asymptomatic transmission is viable and shouldbe attempted to enhance understanding of spread and variability in the disease aswell as policy options for slowing the spread.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; pandemic; asymptomaticspread; early-stage COVID-19 mitigation

Comments (3)

Comment 1
Received: 20 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: I corrected a typo in the Abstract: obviously, COVID-9 should be COVID-19. That should reflect once the revision I posted appears.
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Response 1 to Comment 1
Received: 23 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: The typo is now corrected.
Comment 2
Received: 20 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: One more thing: here is where I graph herd immunity vs. $$R_0$$.
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