Preprint Review Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

# Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options

Version 1 : Received: 12 April 2020 / Approved: 20 April 2020 / Online: 20 April 2020 (06:18:33 CEST)

How to cite: Machanick, P. Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options. Preprints 2020, 2020040361 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0361.v1). Machanick, P. Revisiting Early-stage COVID-19 Strategy Options. Preprints 2020, 2020040361 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0361.v1).

## Abstract

Background: Early-stage interventions in a potential pandemic are important tounderstand as they can make the difference between runaway exponential growththat is hard to turn back and stopping the spread before it gets that far. COVID-19 is an interesting case study because there have been very different outcomesin different localities. These variations are best studied after the fact if precisionis the goal; while a pandemic is still unfolding less precise analysis is of value inattempting to guide localities in the early stages to learn lessons of those that pre-ceded them. Methods: I examine three factors that could differentiate strategy: asymptomaticspread, differences in use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) tuberculosis vac-cine and cloth face masks.Results:Differences in disease progression as well as the possibility of alternativestrategies to prevent COVID-19 from entering the runaway phase or damping itdown later can be elucidated by a study of asymptomatic infection. A study todemonstrate not only what fraction are asymptomatic but how contagious they arewill also inform policy on universal mask wearing. Conclusions: While a COVID-19 outbreak is at a level that makes accurate trace-and test possible, investigation of asymptomatic transmission is viable and shouldbe attempted to enhance understanding of spread and variability in the disease aswell as policy options for slowing the spread.

## Subject Areas

COVID-19; pandemic; asymptomaticspread; early-stage COVID-19 mitigation

Comment 1
Received: 20 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: I corrected a typo in the Abstract: obviously, COVID-9 should be COVID-19. That should reflect once the revision I posted appears.
+ Respond to this comment
Response 1 to Comment 1
Received: 23 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: The typo is now corrected.
Comment 2
Received: 20 April 2020
Commenter: Philip Machanick (Click to see Publons profile: )
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: One more thing: here is where I graph herd immunity vs. $$R_0$$.
+ Respond to this comment

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Views 0