Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Analysis and Prediction for the Spreading of Covid-19 Pandemic in India Using Mathematical Modeling

Version 1 : Received: 18 June 2020 / Approved: 19 June 2020 / Online: 19 June 2020 (10:31:02 CEST)

How to cite: Poddar, N.; Dhar, S.; Mondal, K.K.; Saha, G. Analysis and Prediction for the Spreading of Covid-19 Pandemic in India Using Mathematical Modeling. Preprints 2020, 2020060238 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0238.v1). Poddar, N.; Dhar, S.; Mondal, K.K.; Saha, G. Analysis and Prediction for the Spreading of Covid-19 Pandemic in India Using Mathematical Modeling. Preprints 2020, 2020060238 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0238.v1).

Abstract

In the present time, the biggest problem of the world is the outbreak of novel coronavirus. Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), this one name has become a part of our daily lives over the past few months. Beyond the boundaries of medical science, coronavirus is now the main subject of research in all fields like Applied Mathematics, Economy, Philosophy, Sociology, Politics upto living room. The epidemic has brought unimaginable changes in our traditional habits and daily routines. Thousands of people in our country are fighting with the rest of the world to survive in various new situations. There are different kinds of coronavirus appeared in different times. In this time, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). This virus was first identified towards the end of 2019 in the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei in China. Within very short duration of time and very fast, it has spread throughout a large part of the world. In this study, the main aim is to investigate the spreading rate, death rate, recovery rate due to corona virus infection and to study the future of the coronavirus in India by using mathematical modeling based on the previous data. Mathematical models, in this situation, are the important tools in recruiting effective strategies to fight this epidemic. India is at high risk of spreading the disease and is facing many losses in socio-economic aspects. With current infection rates and existing levels of personal alertness, the number of infected people in India will increase at least in the next three months. Proper social awareness, maintain of social distance, large rate of testing and separation may break the chain of the Coronavirus-2.

Subject Areas

Corona Virus; Covid-19; India; Pandemic; Mathematical modeling

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