Wireless communication has proliferated due to the colossal augmentation of smart phones, mobile phones, tablets and laptops etc. Multimedia applications such as live videos, audios, still images, animated graphics and live communications all requires accompaniments of quality of service (QoS) as well as reliable end-to-end transfer of data. Information about the availability of resources in channel is must in order to improve the QoS. QoS can be determined in terms of capacity of channel, available bandwidth (ABW), and bulk transfer capacity (BTC). Bandwidth availability is a key check for improving the QoS in a network. The performance of a multimedia application is directly affected by the bandwidth availability. One of the most important QoS characteristic is ABW at a wireless route and it can be demarcated as least unused capacity of links instituting a network route. Since now there have been many bandwidth estimation techniques are available in the literature to increase the network performance. Bandwidth estimation techniques have been arranged into three leading classifications: i) Active probing bandwidth estimation techniques, ii) Passive bandwidth estimation technique and iii) Model based bandwidth estimation techniques. Each of these techniques are briefly discussed in this paper.

The most common index for representing structural condition of the pavement is the structural number. The current procedure for determining structural numbers involves utilizing falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar tests, recording pavement surface deflections, and analyzing recorded deflections by back-calculation manners. This procedure has two drawbacks: 1. falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar are expensive tests, 2. back-calculation ways has some inherent shortcomings compared to exact methods as they adopt a trial and error approach. In this study, three machine learning methods entitled Gaussian process regression, m5p model tree, and random forest used for the prediction of structural numbers in flexible pavements. Dataset of this paper is related to 759 flexible pavement sections at Semnan and Khuzestan provinces in Iran and includes “structural number” as output and “surface deflections and surface temperature” as inputs. The accuracy of results was examined based on three criteria of R, MAE, and RMSE. Among the methods employed in this paper, random forest is the most accurate as it yields the best values for above criteria (R=0.841, MAE=0.592, and RMSE=0.760). The proposed method does not require to use ground penetrating radar test, which in turn reduce costs and work difficulty. Using machine learning methods instead of back-calculation improves the calculation process quality and accuracy.

Estimation of core and surface temperature is one of the crucial functionalities of the lithium-ion Battery Management System (BMS) towards providing effective thermal management, fault detection and operational safety. While, it is impractical to measure core temperature using physical sensors, implementing a complex estimation strategy in on-board low-cost BMS is challenging due to high computational cost and the cost of implementation. Typically, a temperature estimation scheme consists of a heat generation model and a heat transfer model. Several researchers have already proposed ranges of thermal models having different levels of accuracy and complexity. Broadly, there are first-order and second-order heat capacitor-resistor-based thermal models of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for core and surface temperature estimation. This paper deals with a detailed comparative study between these two models using extensive laboratory test data and simulation study to access suitability in online prediction and onboard BMS. The aim is to guide whether it’s worth investing towards developing a second-order model instead of a first-order model with respect to prediction accuracy considering modelling complexity, experiments required and the computational cost. Both the thermal models along with the parameter estimation scheme are modelled and simulated using MATLAB/Simulink environment. Models are validated using laboratory test data of a cylindrical 18650 LIB cell. Further, a Kalman Filter with appropriate process and measurement noise levels are used to estimate the core temperature in terms of measured surface and ambient temperatures. Results from the first-order model and second-order models are analyzed for comparison purposes.

Objective: This paper aims to build an Effort Estimation Model for design, coding and testing Web Applications Based Fuzzy and Practical Models, which will help in optimizing the efforts in software development. Methods/Analysis: Soft computing approach is adopted and applied in the effort estimation and then compared with practical efforts in the development process with interpreting the historical data available for the existing functionalities. Findings: The effort estimation model presented in this paper focuses on the first level estimates published by Project Managers and the second level estimates presented by Project Leaders or Developers for any new requirement or enhancement for a web application built on 3-tier architecture using Microsoft technologies. The model considers the classification of each task as either Low or Medium or High complexity. These tasks pertain to the lowest level parts in bottom-up estimation. Efforts are estimated for designing, coding and unit testing of these tasks and the efforts are summed up to get the effort estimation for the higher level which is a feature to be implemented. Novelty/Improvement: The paper also discusses about the application of the effort estimation model by taking a new requirement as a case study. The first level estimates calculated using the effort estimation model has a variance of about 25% when compared with the actual effort. This variance is very much acceptable considering the fact that the first level estimates can be tolerable up to 35%. The proposed effort estimation tool would help the project managers to efficiently control the project, manage the resources effectively, and improve the software development process and also trade off analyses among schedule, performance, quality and functionality. Fuzzy logic is used to verify the claims made in efforts estimation. It is proposed a new relation between the number of data and efforts value membership for actual data. And converts it into crisp value in the range [0…1] which helps to classify the complexity of the task and subtask in the design, coding and testing phases.

The success of a software product depends on several factors. Given that different organizations and institutions use software products, the need to have a quality and desirable software according to the goals and needs of the organization makes measuring the quality of software products an important issue for most organizations and institutions. To be sure of having the right software. It is necessary to use a standard quality model to examine the features and sub-features for a detailed and principled study in the quality discussion. In this study, the quality of Word software was measured. Considering the importance of software quality and to have a good and usable software in terms of quality and measuring the quality of software during the study, experts and skilled in this field were used and the impact of each factor and quality characteristics. It was applied at different levels according to their opinion to make the result of measuring the quality of Word software more accurate and closer to reality. In this research, the quality of the software product is measured based on the fuzzy inference system in ISO standard. According to the results obtained in this study, it is understood that quality is a continuous and hierarchical concept and the quality of each part of the software at any stage of production can lead to high quality products.

In this study, we present different methods of estimating fuzzy reliability of a two-parameter Rayleigh distribution via the maximum likelihood estimator, median first-order statistics estimator, quartile estimator, L-moment estimator, and mixed Thompson-type estimator. The mean-square error MSE as a measurement for comparing the considered methods using simulation through different values for the parameters and unalike sample sizes is used. The results of simulation show that the fuzziness values are better than the real values for all sample sizes, as well as the fuzzy reliability at the estimation of the Maximum

Calculating hydrocarbon components solubility of natural gases is known as one of the important issues for operational works in petroleum and chemical engineering. In this work, a novel solubility estimation tool has been proposed for hydrocarbon gases including methane, ethane, propane and butane in aqueous electrolyte solutions based on extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Comparing the ELM outputs with a comprehensive real databank which has 1175 solubility points concluded to R-squared values of 0.985 and 0.987 for training and testing phases respectively. Furthermore, the visual comparison of estimated and actual hydrocarbon solubility leaded to confirm the ability of proposed solubility model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis has been employed on the input variables of model to identify their impacts on hydrocarbon solubility. Such a comprehensive and reliable study can help engineers and scientists to successfully determine the important thermodynamic properties which are key factors in optimizing and designing different industrial units such as refineries and petrochemical plants.

The hyperspectral vegetation index was defined based on the distinctive features of the spectral curve. In alignment with the growth and development characteristics of cotton, the spectral reflectivity of the cotton canopy was computed at different growth stages. The aim of this study was to clarify the association between cotton yield and canopy spectral indices and to develop yield estimation models utilizing hyperspectral imaging. The ASD Field Spec Pro VNIR 2500 spectrometer radiometer was employed to collect spectral reflectance data from cotton canopies at various growth stages. Using spectral analysis techniques, quantitative models were developed based on hyper-spectral vegetation indices, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (NDVI) and Radar Vegetation Index (RVI) to extract characteristic information from the cotton canopies. Following thorough testing and precise monitoring of the estimation models, the most optimal models representing cotton canopy structure parameters were identified. Results demonstrate that the power function model, relying on NDVI, provides the most accurate forecasting for Leaf Area Index (LAI)). Additionally, the exponential function model based on RVI proves to be the most effective for predicting cotton unit area above-ground fresh biomass, while another exponential function model based on RVI is identified as the best for predicting cotton unit area above-ground fresh biomass. Clearly, the application of hyper-spectral remote sensing technology enables the analysis, simulation, assessment, and providing scientific basis for precision cotton planting and cotton field management strategies.

With the focus of great concern of the sustainable development, its evaluation system has become an important operational strategy and practical values. For the purpose of obtaining the stronger indicators and the larger contribution ones, evaluation indicators screening is carried out using interval estimation model, which takes location of production and service facilities of company A as an example. And the weight value of each indicator is further explored, which can provide an direction of decision-making. The result shows that this screening method provides a more scientific evaluation method for enterprise location, decision-making basis for sustainable development of enterprises, and a solid foundation for the construction of the post-evaluation system. The present work implies that this screening method is affected, to different degrees, by the ability, knowledge reserve of the evaluators, which should be more systematic and standardized, and the concept of sustainable development should be strengthened.

In systems biology, biological phenomena are often modeled by ODE and distributed in the de facto standard file format SBML. The primary analyses performed with such models are dynamic simulation, steady-state analysis, and parameter estimation. These methodologies are mathematically formalized, and libraries for such analyses have been published. Several tools exist to create, simulate, or visualize models encoded in SBML. However, setting up and establishing analysis environments is a crucial hurdle for non-modelers. Therefore, easy access to perform fundamental analyses of ODE models is a significant challenge. We developed SBMLWebApp, a web-based service to execute SBML-based simulations, steady-state analysis, and parameter estimation directly in the browser without the need for any setup or prior knowledge to address this issue. SBMLWebApp visualizes the result and numerical table of each analysis and provides a download of the results. SBMLWebApp allows users to select and analyze SBML models directly from the BioModels Database. Taken together, SBMLWebApp provides barrier-free access to an SBML analysis environment for simulation, steady-state analysis, and parameter estimation for SBML models. SBMLWebApp is implemented in Java™ based on an Apache Tomcat® web server using COPASI, the SBSCL, and LibSBMLSim as simulation engines. SBMLWebApp is licensed under MIT with source code available from https://github.com/TakahiroYamada/SBMLWebApp. The program runs online at http://simulate-biology.org.

The Rasch model is one of the most prominent item response models. In this article, different item parameter estimation methods for the Rasch model are compared through a simulation study. The type of ability distribution, the number of items, and sample sizes were varied. It is shown that variants of joint maximum likelihood estimation and conditional likelihood estimation are competitive to marginal maximum likelihood estimation. However, efficiency losses of limited-information estimation methods are only modest. It can be concluded that in empirical studies using the Rasch model, the impact of the choice of an estimation method with respect to item parameters is almost negligible for most estimation methods. Interestingly, this sheds a somewhat more positive light on old-fashioned joint maximum likelihood and limited information estimation methods.

Exploring the effect of the sample size on the estimation accuracy of airborne LiDAR forest attributes in a large-scale area can help in optimizing the technical application scheme of operational ALS-based large-scale forest stand inventories. In our study, sample datasets composed of different sample plots were constructed by repeated sampling from 1003 sample plots in a subtropical study area covering 2376 × 103 km2. Sixteen multiplicative power models were built in each forest type consisting of four forest attributes. Through these models, the variations of standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) of R2 and rRMSE of forest attribute estimation models for different quantity levels of sample plots were also analyzed. The results showed that, first, when the sample size increased from 30 to the top limit, the SD of the forest attributes and LiDAR variables showed a decreasing trend. Second, as the sample size increased, the rRMSE of the 16 forest attribute estimation models gradually decreased, while the R2 gradually increased. Third, when the sample size was small, both the SD of R2 and rRMSE of the models were large, and the SD of R2 and rRMSE gradually decreased as the sample size increased. In 50 models conducted for each attribute at the same sample size, for the mean standard deviations of forest attributes, the ten best performing models were lower than those of the total 50 models, and the worst ten models were the opposite. When the sample size increased, the accuracy of each forest attribute estimation model for each forest type gradually improved. The variation of forest attributes and the LiDAR variable of the construction model are critical factors that affect the model’s accuracy. To efficiently apply airborne LiDAR in order to survey large-scale subtropical forest resources, the sample size of the Chinese fir forest, pine forest, eucalyptus forest, and broad-leaved forest should be 110, 80, 85, and 70, respectively.

The induced draft (ID) fan is important auxiliary equipment in the thermal power plant. It is of great significance to monitor the operation of the ID fan for safe and efficient production. In this paper, an adaptive warning model is proposed to detect early faults of ID fans. First, a non-parametric monitoring model is constructed to describe the normal operation states with the multivariate state estimation technique (MSET). Then, an early warning approach is presented to identify abnormal behaviors based on the results of the MSET model. As the performance of the MSET model is heavily influenced by the normal operation data in the historic memory matrix, an adaptive strategy is proposed by using the samples with a high data quality index (DQI) to manage the memory matrix and update the model. The proposed method is applied to a 300 MW coal-fired power plant for early fault detection, and it is compared with the model without an update. Results show that the proposed method can detect the fault earlier and more accurately.

The state estimation for lithium-ion battery cells has been the topic of many publications concerning the different states of a battery cell. They often focus on a battery cell’s state of charge (SOC) or state of health (SOH). Therefore this paper introduces a, on one hand, a new lithium-ion battery data set with dynamic validation data over degradation and on the other hand a model-based SOC and SOH estimation based on this dataset as a reference. An unscented Kalman filter-based approach was used for SOC estimation and extended with a holistic ageing model to handle the SOH estimation. The paper describes the dataset, the models, the parameterisation, the implementation of the state estimations, and their validation using parts of the dataset resulting in a SOC and SOH estimation over battery life. The results show that the dataset can be used to extract parameters, design models based on it and validate with dynamically degraded battery cells.

Given the high number of vehicle-crash victims, it has been established as a priority to reduce this figure in the transportation sector. For this reason, many of the recent researches are focused on including control systems in existing vehicles, to improve their stability, comfort and handling. These systems need to know in every moment the behavior of the vehicle (state variables), among others, when the different maneuvers are performed, to actuate by means of the systems in the vehicle (brakes, steering, suspension) and, in this way, to achieve a good behavior. The main problem arises from the lack of ability to directly capture several required dynamic vehicle variables, such as roll angle, from low-cost sensors. Previous studies demonstrate that low-cost sensors can provide data in real-time with the required precision and reliability. Even more, other research works indicate that neural networks are efficient mechanisms to estimate roll angle. Nevertheless, it is necessary to assess that the fusion of data coming from low-cost devices and estimations provided by neural networks can fulfill the reliability and appropriateness requirements for using these technologies to improve overall safety in production vehicles. Because of the increasing of computing power, the reduction of consumption and electric devices size, along with the high variety of communication technologies and networking protocols using Internet have yield to Internet of Things (IoT) development. In order to address this issue, this study has two main goals: 1) Determine the appropriateness and performance of neural networks embedded in low-cost sensors kits to estimate roll angle required to evaluate rollover risk situations. 2) Compare the low-cost control unit devices (Intel Edison and Raspberry Pi 3 Model B), to provide the roll angle estimation with this artificial neural network-based approach. To fulfil these objectives an experimental environment has been set up composed of a van with two set of low-cost kits, one including a Raspberry Pi 3 Model B, low cost Inertial Measurement Unit (BNO055 - 37€) and GPS (Mtk3339 - 53€) and the other having an Intel Edison System on Chip linked to a SparkFun 9 Degrees of Freedom module. This experimental environment will be tested in different maneuvers for comparison purposes. Neural networks embedded in low-cost sensor kits provide roll angle estimations very approximated to real values. Even more, Intel Edison and Raspberry Pi 3 Model B have enough computing capabilities to successfully run roll angle estimation based on neural networks to determine rollover risks situation fulfilling real-time operation restrictions stated for this problem.

The Schelling model of segregation allows for a general description of residential movements in an environment modeled by a lattice. The key factor is that occupants change positions until they are surrounded by a designated minimum number of similarly labeled residents. An analogy to the Ising model has been made in previous research, primarily due the assumption of state changes being dependent upon the adjacent cell positions. This allows for concepts produced in statistical mechanics to be applied to the Schelling model. Here is presented a methodology to estimate the entropy of the model for different states of the simulation. A Monte Carlo estimate is obtained for the set of macrostates defined as the different aggregate homogeneity satisfaction values across all residents, which allows for the entropy value to be produced for each state. This produces a trace of the estimated entropy value for the states of the lattice configurations to be displayed with each iteration. The results show that the initial random placements of residents have larger entropy values than the final states of the simulation when the overall homogeneity of the residential locality is increased.

The accurate monitoring of state of charge (SOC) and state of health (SOH) is critical for the reliable management of lithium-ion battery (LIB) systems. In this paper, the online model identification is scrutinized to achieve high modeling accuracy and robustness, and a model-based joint estimator is further proposed to estimate the SOC and SOH of LIB concurrently. Specifically, an adaptive forgetting recursive least squares (AF-RLS) method is exploited to optimize the estimation alertness and numerical stability, so as to achieve accurate online adaption of model parameters. Leveraging the online adapted battery model, a joint estimator is proposed by combining an open-circuit voltage (OCV) observer with a low-order state observer to co-estimate the SOC and capacity of LIB. Simulation and experimental studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed data-model fusion method. Results suggest that the proposed method can effectively track the variation of model parameters by using the onboard measured current and voltage data. The SOC and capacity can be further estimated in real time with fast convergence, high accuracy and high stability.

Flood Management remains a major problem in many urban environments. Commonly, catchment models are used to generate the data needed for estimation of flood risk; event-based and continuous-based models have been used for this purpose. Use of catchment models requires calibration and validation with a calibration metric used to assess the predicted catchment response against the recorded catchment response. In this study, a continuous model based on SWMM using the Powells Creek catchment as a case study is investigated. Calibration of the model was obtained using 25 selected events from the monitored data for the catchment. Assessment of the calibration used a normalised peak flow error. Using alternative sets of parameter values to obtain estimates of the peak flow for each of the selected events and different accuracy criteria, the best datasets for each of the accuracy criteria were identified. These datasets were used with SWMM in a continuous simulation mode to predict flow sequences for extraction of Annual Maxima Series for an At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis. From analysis of these At-Site Flood Frequency Analyses, it was concluded that the normalised peak flow error needed to be less than 10% if reliable design flood quantile estimates were to be obtained.

Fetal weight estimation before delivery is important in obstetrics, which assists doctors diagnose abnormal or diseased cases. Linear regression based on ultrasound measures such as bi-parietal diameter (bpd), head circumference (hc), abdominal circumference (ac), and fetal length (fl) is common statistical method for weight estimation but the regression model requires that time points of collecting such measures must not be too far from last ultrasound scans. Therefore this research proposes a method of early weight estimation based on expectation maximization (EM) algorithm so that ultrasound measures can be taken at any time points in gestational period. In other words, gestational sample can lack some or many fetus weights, which gives facilities to practitioners because practitioners need not concern fetus weights when taking ultrasound examinations. The proposed method is called dual regression expectation maximization (DREM) algorithm. Experimental results indicate that accuracy of DREM decreases insignificantly when completion of ultrasound sample decreases significantly. So it is proved that DREM withstands missing values in incomplete sample or sparse sample.

In many research fields, statistical probability models are often used to analyze real-world data. However, data from many fields, such as the environment, economics, and health care, do not necessarily fit traditional models. New empirical models need to be developed to improve their fit. In this paper, we explore a further extension of the quasi-Lindley model. Maximum likelihood, least square error, Anderson-Darling algorithm, and expectation-maximization algorithm are four techniques for estimating the parameters under study. All techniques provide accurate and reliable estimates of the parameters. However, the mean square error of the expectation maximization approach was lower. The usefulness of the proposed model was demonstrated by analyzing a dynamical systems data set, and the analysis shows that it outperforms the other models in all statistical models considered.

Precision farming, a labor-saving and highly productive management, is gaining popularity as the number of farmers declines in contrast to the increasing global food demand. However, it requires more efficient crop phenology observation and growth monitoring. One measure is the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which is essential for estimating biomass and yield, but its validation requires destructive field measurements. Remote sensing offers a non-destructive and effective method for ground- and UAV-based field observations. Thus, in this study, a method for indirect estimation of LAI was investigated using ground and UAV observation data. A weekly plant survey was done to measure the plant height, above-ground biomass, and light intensity. Furthermore, images from ground-based and UAV-based cameras were acquired to generate NDVI and the canopy height (CH), respectively. Using the canopy photosynthetic model, derived from Lambert-Beer’s law, the daily biomass was estimated by applying the weekly estimated LAI using CH, and the observed light intensity data as input. The results demonstrated the possibility of quantitatively estimating the daily growth biomass of rice plants, including its spatial variation. The near-real-time estimation method of rice biomass by integrating observation data at fields with numerical models can be applied to the management of major crops.

In econometrics and finance, volatility modelling has long been a specialised field for addressing a variety of issues pertaining to the risk and uncertainties of an asset. This study presents a robust framework, through a step-by-step design, that is relevant for effective Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with empirical verifications to estimate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model. The framework describes an organised approach to the MCS experiment that includes "background (optional), defining the aim, research questions, method of implementation, and summarised conclusion". The method of implementation is a workflow that consists of writing the code, setting the seed, setting the true parameter a priori, data generation process, and performance assessment through meta-statistics. Among the findings, it is experimentally demonstrated in the study that the GAS model with a lower unconditional shape parameter value can generate a dataset that adequately reflects the behaviour of financial time series data, relevant for volatility estimation. This dynamic framework is intended to help interested users on MCS experiments utilising the GAS model for reliable volatility calculations in finance and other areas.

Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System are recognized as crucial instruments for conducting geographical and geospatial research. RS and GIS technology was employed to assess the morphological Characteristics of the Kasura River Watershed situated within the Parbhani and Jalna Districts of Maharashtra, India. The entire drainage area of the Kasura River basin measures 490.13 square kilometers (km²). Various morphometric characteristic were calculated and examined, encompassing linear features such as stream number, stream order, mean stream length, stream length, and stream length ratio, areal attributes including elongation ratio, circularity ratio, form factor, constant of channel maintenance, drainage density and drainage texture and relief characteristics such as relief, relief ratio, maximum relief, ruggedness number, relative relief, and length of overland flow. These findings underscore the significance of employing morphometric analysis in watershed assessment, offering a quantitative method for characterizing the surface attributes of a drainage pattern and yielding valuable insights into the topography and runoff dynamics of the region.

In this paper, the problem of autonomous optimal absolute orbit keeping for a satellite mission in Low Earth Orbit using electric propulsion is considered. The main peculiarity of the approach is to support small satellite missions in which the platform is equipped with a single thruster nozzle which provides acceleration on a single direction at a time. This constraint implies that an attitude maneuver is necessary before or during each thrusting arc to direct the nozzle into the desired direction. In this context, an attitude guidance algorithm specific for the orbit maneuver has been developed. A Model Predictive Control scheme is proposed, where the attitude kinematics are coupled with the orbital dynamics in order to obtain the optimal guidance profiles in terms of satellite state, reference attitude, and thrust magnitude. The proposed control scheme is developed exploiting Formation Flying techniques where the reference orbit is that of a virtual spacecraft that the main satellite is required to rendezvous with. In addition to the controller design, the closed loop configuration is presented supported by numerical simulations. The efficacy of the proposed autonomous orbit keeping approach is shown in several application scenarios.

Building energy demand impacts a myriad of interconnected economic, societal, and environmental aspects. As a result, Buildings Energy Models (BEM) play an important role in the process of urban design and planning. While previous studies have investigated the effects of building interventions on energy efficiency, their applicability may be limited due to the BEM’s high computational complexity. This limits their ability to systematically study important aspects of energy demand on a large scale. The development of Machine Learning Models (MLM) allows to design the required detailed analysis and solutions, while reducing the computational burden, making MLM attractive for urban designers. The capability of MLM to generalize well for multiple contexts (in our case, multiple buildings) is a crucial contributor to their applicability. However, the validation process in a wider context is often overlooked, therefore its generalization capabilities are not quantified. In this paper, we present a framework to train and validate a surrogate model derived from a physics-based BEM. Our method employs a Multiple Linear Regression model to predict Energy Use Intensity (EUI) for office buildings in Singapore using 36 input parameters (covariates), based on a training dataset of 23,000 samples. Model validation is performed by comparing the results of the Surrogate Model (SM) to a widely used BEM for a sample of 120 buildings. Our results indicate that the SM has an accuracy of NRMSE of 13%, NMBE of −3.56%, and R2 of 0.92, which suggests it can effectively and accurately predict building EUI. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis, which indicates that the parameters associated with internal loads and internal space usage are the most influential. Additionally, we present a reduced order model trained with only the 11 most influential parameters, which exhibits negligible loss in accuracy compared to the full SM while providing reduced complexity. Finally, we demonstrate an application of our SM to evaluate energy efficiency under uncertainty scenarios. The analytically derived results indicate a potential reduction of EUI of offices in Singapore from 227kWh/m2 to 99kWh/m2 by altering the building parameters that were identified as most influential.

Audio classification using deep learning models, essential for applications like voice assistants and music analysis, faces challenges when deployed on edge devices due to their limited computational resources and memory. Achieving a balance between performance, efficiency, and accuracy is a significant obstacle in optimizing these models for such constrained environments. In this investigation, we evaluate diverse deep learning architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for audio classification tasks on the ESC 50, UrbanSound8k, and Audio Set datasets. Our empirical findings indicate that Mel Spectrograms outperform raw audio data, attributing this enhancement to their synergistic alignment with advanced image classification algorithms and their congruence with human auditory perception. To address the constraints of model size, we apply model compression techniques, notably magnitude pruning, Taylor Pruning, and 8-bit quantization. The research demonstrates that a hybrid pruned model achieves a commendable accuracy rate of 89 percent, which, although marginally lower than the 92 percent accuracy of the uncompressed CNN, strikingly illustrates an equilibrium between efficiency and performance. Subsequently, we deploy the optimized model on Raspberry Pi 4 and NVIDIA Jetson Nano platforms for audio classification tasks. These findings highlight the significant potential of model compression strategies in enabling effective deep learning applications on resource-limited devices, with minimal compromise on accuracy.

Background. The treatment of coronary stenosis relies on invasive high risk surgical assessment to generate the fractional flow reserve diagnostics index, a ratio of distal to proximal pressures in respect of coronary atherosclerotic plaque causing stenosis. Non-invasive methods are therefore a need of the times. This study proposes an extensible mathematical description of the coronary vasculature that permits rapid estimation of the coronary fractional flow reserve. Methods. By adapting an existing closed loop model of human coronary blood flow, the effects of large vessel stenosis and microvascular disease on fractional flow reserve were quantified. Several simula-tions generated flow and pressure information which was used to compute fractional flow re-serve under a spectrum of conditions including focal stenosis, diffuse stenosis, and microvascular disease. Sensitivity analysis stratified the influence of model parameters on the index. The model was simulated as coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations and numerically solved us-ing an implicit higher order method. Results. Large vessel stenosis affected fractional flow re-serve. The model predicts that the presence, rather than severity, of microvascular disease affect coronary flow deleteriously. Sensitivity analysis revealed that heart rate may not affect the index. Conclusions. The model provides a computationally inexpensive instrument for future in silico coronary blood flow investigations as well as clinical-imaging decision making. A combination of focal and diffuse stenosis appears to be essential in reducing the index. In addition to pressure measurements in the large epicardial vessels, diagnosis of microvascular disease is essential. The independence of the index with respect to heart rate suggests that computationally inexpensive steady state simulations may provide sufficient information to reliably compute the index.

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modelling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive explicit solution. The present work demonstrates that this is a non-trivial task. Notably, it is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function. The present manuscript reports new analytical results and numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. The manuscript introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The numerical approach is exemplified with data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for several European countries in the period Jan 2020 -- Jun 2020.

Cloudburst is one of the most devastating and frequently occurring natural hazardous events in Indian Himalayan region. Localized deep cumulus convective clouds have a capability of giving enormous amount of rainfall over a limited horizontal area, within a short span of time. Whenever, such events occur, lead to flash floods causing landslides, house collapses, dislocation of traffic, and human casualties on a large scale. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the cloudburst inundation zones accurately to avoid damage associated with them. For this, high resolution Digital Elevation Model generated from CartoSat-1 (Stereo pair) were integrated in MIKE 11 Hydrodynamic 1D model to generate longitudinal profile of the study area and to find water level, peak discharge, flow velocity, flow width at different reaches along the Asi ganga and Bhagirathi river, to know the Cloudburst flood inundation scenario. On 3^rd August 2012 one of the major Cloudburst event occurred in Asi Ganga Valley in Indian Himalayan region which was considered for simulation of hydrodynamic model. For a Cloudburst event, 100 mm/hr rainfall was considered for the simulation of the hydrodynamic model. It is observed that the discharge rise from 50 m³/s to 549.164 m³/s (an abrupt increase of about 10 times) within 1 hr at Sangamchetty in Asiganga river and at Joshiyara area rise from 600 m³/s to 3378.69 m³/s (an abrupt increase of about 5 times) within 4 hr in Bhagirathi river. Similarly the water level rises around 3 m and 6m in Asi Ganga and Bhagirathi rivers respectively. Flash Flood inundation areas due to Cloudburst on 3^rd August 2012 were demarcated from the simulation results in GIS environment.

. In this article, a search for a calculation method and an analysis of performance indicators of mutual investment funds is carried out. Many factors can influence the return on investments in portfolio investments, which makes the choice of the fund incredibly difficult. However, in addition to the fact that it is difficult to determine which indicators should be given more attention and which should be omitted, it is not so easy to get these data. Some of them are publicly available on the Internet, while others can only be found in trading systems that are not accessible to people outside of this area. The article proves that a well-trained neural network can easily find existing patterns between risk and expected return on investment. It is a well-trained neural network that provides the ability to use the "what-if" function to justify your choice on real factors, as well as the ability to download available data and calculate the estimated income and its changes. This makes it much easier to choose a Fund, especially for inexperienced investors. The article also presents the results of a study of the dependence of estimated income on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility using a trained neural network. According to the theory, higher values of these three factors correspond to a higher amount of income. The obtained graphs of the calculated income dependence on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility confirmed the correctness of the neural network training and compliance with the relations described in the theory. The paper presents graphs of the dependence of the estimated income on the beta and alpha coefficients. The higher the beta and alpha indicators, the higher the expected return on investment. This corresponds to the dependency accepted in the model. When the values of the beta and alpha coefficients increase, the income also increases, which is completely consistent with the theory.

In this article, a search for a calculation method and an analysis of performance indicators of mutual investment funds is carried out. Many factors can influence the return on investments in portfolio investments, which makes the choice of the fund incredibly difficult. However, in addition to the fact that it is difficult to determine which indicators should be given more attention and which should be omitted, it is not so easy to get these data. Some of them are publicly available on the Internet, while others can only be found in trading systems that are not accessible to people outside of this area. The article proves that a well-trained neural network can easily find existing patterns between risk and expected return on investment. It is a well-trained neural network that provides the ability to use the "what-if" function to justify your choice on real factors, as well as the ability to download available data and calculate the estimated income and its changes. This makes it much easier to choose a Fund, especially for inexperienced investors. The article also presents the results of a study of the dependence of estimated income on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility using a trained neural network. According to the theory, higher values of these three factors correspond to a higher amount of income. The obtained graphs of the calculated income dependence on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility confirmed the correctness of the neural network training and compliance with the relations described in the theory. The paper presents graphs of the dependence of the estimated income on the beta and alpha coefficients. The higher the beta and alpha indicators, the higher the expected return on investment. This corresponds to the dependency accepted in the model. When the values of the beta and alpha coefficients increase, the income also increases, which is completely consistent with the theory.

In the face of escalating cybercriminal sophistication, an innovative approach to network anomaly detection has been pursued in this longitudinal study, integrating computational data analytics in a geographic, organizational, and behavioral context. A data-driven scoring mechanism was employed to systematically analyze and correlate source countries of IP addresses and organization-associated Autonomous System (AS) Numbers (ASN) with network anomalies. Significant correlations between certain countries, specific organizations, and high behavior scores were identified through the data analytics. An increase in connection requests was also found to be linked with elevated behavior scores. Validated by cross-validation techniques, these findings emphasize the necessity for continuous model recalibration. The transformative role of integrative data analytics in cybersecurity is underscored, paving the way for the development of more sophisticated, context-aware anomaly detection systems. Specifically, the analysis underscores the need for organizations to adopt a proactive and adaptive approach to cybersecurity that can keep pace with the evolving threat landscape.

In South Korea, landslides are caused by localized heavy rainfall and typhoons, which often occur in the summer season at natural slopes in mountainous areas and artificial slopes in urban surroundings. Flow-type landslides frequently occur in mountainous areas. To evaluate flow-type landslides, it is essential to identify the physical characteristics of soil, giving focus to the soil on the top layers of various types of slope. This study conducts a survey and an analysis of the characteristics of landslides that occurred in the study area with different geological conditions of granite and gneiss. The characteristics of soil in the area and its surroundings that have or have not undergone landslides for every geological condition is also evaluated. Based on these characteristics and a statistics method, it extracts the triggering factors, permeability coefficients (k), and shearing strength with cohesion (c) and internal friction angel (φ) of soils that are highly related to landslides around weathered soil layers. As a result, the permeability coefficients show significant relevance with void ratio (e), the effective size of grains (D10), and uniformity coefficient (cu), while the shearing strength with the proportion of fine-grained soil (Fines), uniformity coefficient (cu), degree of saturation (S), dry weight density (rd), and void ratio (e). By obtaining this result, the study uses the regression analysis to suggest models to estimate the permeability coefficients and shearing strength. For the gneiss area, the statistics-based estimation model (SEM) is proposed as k_gn = (1.488 × 10^-02 × e) + (1.076 × D₁₀) + (-1.629 × 10^-04 × c_u) - (1.893 × 10^-02) for permeability coefficients; cgn = (-0.712 × Fines) + (-0.131 × c_u) + 15.335 for cohesion; and φgn = (27.01 × r_d) + (-12.594 × e) + 6.018 for internal frictional angle of soils. For the granite area, the statistics-based estimation model (SEM) is proposed as kgr = (8.281 × 10^-03 × e) + (0.639 × D₁₀) + (-2.766 × 10^-05 × c_u) - (9.907 × 10^-03) for permeability coefficients; c_gr = (-0.689 × Fines) + (-0.0744 × S) + 18.59 for cohesion; and φ_gr = (33.640 × r_d) + (-0.875 × e) - 9.685 for internal frictional angle of soils. The use of statistics-based estimation models (SEMs) for landslide-triggering factors that trigger landslides will support the simple calculation of permeability coefficient and shearing strength (cohesion and internal frictional angle), only requiring information about the physical properties of soil at the natural slopes that have different geological features such as gneiss and granite areas.

Mostly populous city like Chennai is subjected to frequent flooding due to its complex nature of natural and man-made activities. From the analysis of the past records of flood events of 1943,1976,1985,2005 and 2008,it has been observed Adayar watershed is subjected to cataclysmic flooding in low-lying areas of the city and its suburbs because of inoperativeness of the local drainage system, rainfall associated with cyclonic activity, topography of the terrain, encroachments along the floodplain, hugh upstream flow discharge into the river and the highly impervious area which blocked the runoff to flow into the storm water drainage. After looking into these problems of flooding, a study have been conducted on Adayar watershed to develop a 2D hydrodynamic model for the two scenarios of existing condition of storm water drainage network and revised conditions of storm water drainage network using high resolution Lidar DEM to assess the volume of runoff with respect to time and duration on flood peaks for the two flood events of 2005 and 2015.Secondly to develop a 1D flood model to predict the river stages during peak floods using MIKE 11 for the Adayar watershed. Thirdly to integrate the coupled 1D and 2D model using MIKEFLOOD for assessing the extent of inundation in the floodplain area of Adayar river. Finally results from the integrated model have been validated and the results found satisfactory. As a part of mitigation measures, two flood mitigation measures have been adopted. One measure such as revised storm water drainage system which enhances the flood carrying capacity of the drains and results in less inundated area which solves the problem of urban flooding and second measure such as regrading the river bed which reduces the floodplain inundation around the adjacent area of the river. After adopting these measures, the river is free to flow into the sea without any blockades.

Human Pose Estimation (HPE) is a technique in computer vision and AI for detecting and tracking human body parts and poses from images or videos. Widely used in augmented reality, animation, fitness applications, and surveillance, HPE methods using monocular cameras are highly versatile due to their applicability in standard video and CCTV footage. These methods have evolved from 2D to 3D pose estimation. However, current 3D HPE methods trained on laboratory-based motion capture data encounter challenges such as limited training data, depth perception ambiguity, left/right switching, and issues with occlusions when applied in real-world environments. This study compares two representative 3D HPE methods by assessing their strengths and weaknesses with real-world videos. Then, we propose data processing techniques to eliminate and correct anomalies like left/right inversion and false detections of joint positions in daily life motions. Finally, we obtain joint angle trajectories using an optimization method based on a 3D humanoid simulator, taking as input the joint coordinate data corrected by applying the proposed human joint data processing technique. The efficacy of the proposed 3D HPE method is verified by applying it to three-dimensional freehand gymnastics exercises and comparing the joint angle trajectories during the motion.

Rotational jumps are crucial techniques in sports competitions. Estimating ground reaction forces (GRFs), one of the components constituting jumps, through a biomechanical model-based approach enables analysis even in environments where force plates or machine learning training data cannot be utilized. In this study, rotational jump movements involving twists on land were measured using inertial measurement units (IMUs) and estimated GRFs and body loads using a 3D forward dynamics model. Our estimation method, based on forward dynamics and optimization calculations, generated and optimized body movements using cost functions defined by motion measurements and internal body loads. To reduce the influence of the dynamic acceleration in the optimization calculation, the 3D orientation using sensor fusion composed of acceleration and angular velocity data obtained from IMUs and an extended Kalman filter was estimated. As a result, by generating movements based on the cost function, it was possible to calculate biomechanically valid GRFs while following the measured movements even if not all joints are covered by IMUs. This estimation method allows for 3D motion analysis independent of measurement conditions or training data.

In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to 23 March 2020 restrictions. To do that, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model which estimated unreported cases and infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by reporting biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that R0 was 2.43 (95%CI= 2.42 – 2.44) at the beginning of the epidemic, and that 92.9% (95%CI= 92.5% - 93.1%) of total cases were not reported. Similarly, the proportion of unreported new infections by day ranged from 52.1% to 100%, with a total of 91.8% (95%CI= 91.6% - 92.1%) unreported infections. Agreement between our estimates and those from previous studies proved that our approach was reliable to estimate prevalence and incidence of undocumented SARS-CoV2 infections. Once tested on Chinese data, our model could be applied on other countries with different surveillance and testing policies.

Reliable quantification of pulmonary arterial pressure is essential in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of a range of cardiovascular pathologies including rheumatic heart disease, yet an accurate and routinely available method for its quantification remains elusive. This work proposes an approach to infer pulmonary arterial pressure based on scientific machine learning techniques and non-invasive, clinically available measurements. A 0-D multicompartment model of the cardiovascular system was optimized using several optimization algorithms, subject to forward-mode automatic differentiation. Measurement data were synthesized from known parameters to represent the healthy, mitral regurgitant, aortic stenosed and combined valvular disease situations with and without pulmonary hypertension. Eleven model parameters were selected for optimization based on 95 % explained variation in mean pulmonary arterial pressure. A hybrid Adam and limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno optimizer yielded the best results with input data including valvular flow rates, heart chamber volume changes and systematic arterial pressure. Mean absolute percentage errors ranged from 1.8 % to 3.78 % over the simulated test cases. The model was able to capture pressure dynamics under hypertensive conditions with pulmonary arterial systole, diastole, and mean pressure average percentage errors of 1.12 %, 2.49 % and 2.14 %, respectively. The relatively low errors highlight the potential of the proposed model to recover pulmonary pressures for diseased heart valve and pulmonary hypertensive conditions.

Spatial regression models have garnered significant attention across several disciplines, including functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis, econometrics, home price analysis, and many other domains. The phenomenon of sparsity is often found in nature, when a limited number of factors contribute significantly to the overall variation. Spatial regression models frequently use sparsity to indicate less complex computational and more superficial covariance structures. The spatial error model is a significant spatial regression model that focuses on the geographical dependence present in the error terms rather than the response variable. This study proposes an effective approach for estimating the vector of regression coefficients in the spatial error model, taking into consideration of the prior knowledge that some coefficients are insignificant and there is multicollinearity among the regressors. It also introduces pretest and shrinkage ridge estimators for spatial error regression models, evaluating their performance compared to traditional maximum likelihood estimators. It also assesses their efficacy using real-world data and bootstrapping techniques for comparison purposes.

The main objective of this work is the assessment of the annual number of hospital admissions for respiratory disease (HARD) due to the exposure to in-healable particulate matter (PM10), within the greater Athens area (GAA), Greece. Towards this aim, the time series of the particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10μm (PM10) recorded in six monitoring stations located in the GAA, for a 13-year period 2001-2013, is used. Initially, a descriptive statistical treatment of PM10 concentrations took place. Furthermore, the AirQ2.2.3 software developed by the WHO was used to evaluate adverse health effects by PM10 in the GAA during the examined period. The results show that, during the examined period PM10 concentrations present a significant decreasing trend. Also, the mean annual HARD cases per 100,000 inhabitants ranged between 20 (suburban location) and 40 (city centre location). Approximately 70% of the annual HARD cases are due to city centre residents. In all examined locations, a declining trend in the annual number of HARD cases is appeared. Moreover, a strong relation between the annual number of HARD cases and the annual number of days exceeding the European Union daily PM10 threshold value was found.

The interest on the use of renewable energy resources is increasing, especially towards wind and hydro powers, which should be efficiently converted into electric energy via suitable technology tools. To this aim, self--tuning control techniques represent viable strategies that can be employed for this purpose, due to the features of these nonlinear dynamic processes working over a wide range of operating conditions, driven by stochastic inputs, excitations and disturbances. Some of the considered methods were already verified on wind turbine systems, and important advantages may thus derive from the appropriate implementation of the same control schemes for hydroelectric plants. This represents the key point of the work, which provides some guidelines on the design and the application of these control strategies to these energy conversion systems. In fact, it seems that investigations related with both wind and hydraulic energies present a reduced number of common aspects, thus leading to little exchange and share of possible common points. This consideration is particularly valid with reference to the more established wind area when compared to hydroelectric systems. In this way, this work recalls the models of wind turbine and hydroelectric system, and investigates the application of different control solutions. The scope is to analyse common points in the control objectives and the achievable results from the application of different solutions. Another important point of this investigation regards the analysis of the exploited benchmark models, their control objectives, and the development of the control solutions. The working conditions of these energy conversion systems will be also taken into account in order to highlight the reliability and robustness characteristics of the developed control strategies, especially interesting for remote and relatively inaccessible location of many installations.

Natural language Processing (NLP) has significantly transformed in the last decade, especially in the field of Language Modeling. Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved SOTA performances on Natural Language Understanding (NLU) and Natural Language Generation (NLG) tasks by learning language representation in self-supervised ways. This paper provides a comprehensive survey to capture the progression of advances in Language Models. In this paper, we examine the different aspects of Language Models, which started with a few million parameters but have reached the size of a trillion in a very short time. We also look at how these LLMs transitioned from task-specific to task-independent to task-and-language-independent architectures. This paper extensively discusses different pre-training objectives, benchmarks, and transfer learning methods used in LLMs. It also examines different fine-tuning and In-Context learning techniques used in downstream tasks. It also explores how LLMs can perform well across many domains and datasets if sufficiently trained on a large and diverse dataset. Next, it discusses how, over time, the availability of cheap computational power and large datasets have improved LLM’s capabilities and raised new challenges. As part of our study, we also inspect LLMs from the lens of scalability to see how their performance is affected by the model’s depth, width, and data size. Lastly, we provide an empirical comparison of existing trends and techniques and a comprehensive analysis of where the field of LLM currently stand.

In recent years, remote sensing technology has been widely used to predict forest stand parameters. In order to compare the effects of different features of remote sensing images and topographic information on the prediction of forest stand parameters, multivariate stepwise regression analysis method was used to build estimation models for important forest stand parameters by using textural and spectral features as well as topographic information of SPOT-5 satellite images in northeastern Heilongjiang Province in China as independent variables. The study results show that the optimal window to predict forest stand parameters using textural features of SPOT-5 satellite image is 9×9; the ability of textural features was better than that of spectral features in terms of predicting forest stand parameters; with the inclusion of topographic information, the accuracy of prediction of all models was improved, of which elevation has the most significant effect. The highest accuracy was achieved when predicting the stand volume (SV) (R²_adj=0.820), followed by basal area (BA) (R²_adj =0.778), accuracy of both above models exceeded 75%. The results show that models combined use of textural, spectral features and topographic information of SPOT-5 images have a good application prospect in predicting forest stand parameters.

This study investigated the ability of a HYDRUS 1D model for predicting the vertical distribution of potassium iodine (200 ppm) in soil columns after amendment with five different common remediation materials (gypsum, lime, fly ash, charcoal and sawdust) at a rate of 2.5% (w/w), relative to an unamended control soil. Results shows that relative to the unamended soil, iodine leaching was decreased by all amendments but that the magnitude of the decreases varied with the soil amendment applied. Iodine content was highest in the upper layer of the soil columns and decreased progressively with soil depth. The model was evaluated via comparison of the model simulated values with measured values from the soil column studies. The results showed that the HYDRUS 1D model efficiency was near to 1, indicating that the stimulated results were near to the measured values. Therefore, this study showed that iodine leaching through a soil could be ascertained well using a HYDRUS 1D model. The model over predicted iodine leaching, resulting to a weak correspondence between the simulated and the measured results for iodine leaching. This suggests that the HYDRUS-1D model does not explain accurately different organic and inorganic amended soil and the preferential flow that occurs in these columns. This may be due to the fact that Freundlich isotherm, which is part of the transport equations, does not sufficiently describe the mechanism of iodine adsorption onto the soil particles. This study would help to select amendments for an effective management strategy to reduce exogenous iodine losses from agro-ecosystems. This would also improve understanding of iodine transport in soil profile.

Safety management assessment systems for national level units’ in South Korea focus on responding capacity to cope with impending accident occurrence and danger occurrence. Since the four stage systems for prevention-preparation-response-recovery, which are core elements of national disaster management, assess the capacities by item such as those of individuals, disaster management departments, institutions, and management networks, there is no assessment function for the organic operation states of the entire systems. Therefore, for efficient disaster management, systematic evaluation indices that will enable active pre-checks in departments in organizations should be developed in place of the existing simply checking methods. In this study, an assessment model that will enable active disaster management centered on practice was developed using resilience engineering techniques. This model consists of disaster management items from the viewpoint of proactive responses instead of prevention. A total of 56 items that constitute four capacities; which are prediction (13 items), monitoring (14 items), proactive response (15 items), and safety learning (14 items) capacities were adopted in this model through Delphi analysis. Institutional capacities for infectious disease disaster management were evaluated based on this model and the resultant scores were prediction 4.41, monitoring 4.63, proactive response 4.69, safety learning 4.56 out of the full score of 5.0 points with an overall average of 4.51. This is an excellent capacity management score comparable to the score 4.57 of diagnosis of similar capacities by the WHO\_JEE (The Joint External Evaluation) in 2017. In fact, in 2015, when infectious disease capacity management was poor, in case of MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) infectious disease spread in South Korea, 36 patients died and 6,729 patients were isolated. However, through capacity reinforcement, in the case of MERS occurrence in South Korea in September 2018, a management capacity that prevented spread was shown as one confirmed case was completely cured in 10 days and 21 contacts were isolated and tested negative. Therefore, this capacity management assessment model is judged to be usable in enhancing disaster response and management capacities.

This research paper is about to obtain new soliton solutions to the M-fractional (1+1)-dimensional nonlinear Westervelt model by utilizing $\exp_a$ function and modified simplest equation techniques. The gained solutions involving dark, bright, periodic, dark-bright and other solitons. These results have many applications in wave propagation of sound waves, high amplitude in medical imaging and therapy. Achieved results are verified by Mathematica tool and the effect of M-fractional derivative on the solutions is explained through 2-Dimensional, 3-Dimensional and contour plots. At the end, these techniques are simple, fruitful and effective to deal with nonlinear FPDEs.

As the application of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) becomes more and more widespread, its security is becoming a focus of attention. Currently, there has been much research on the security defense of the physical layer of the CPS. However, most of the research only focuses on one of the aspects, for example, attack detection, security state estimation or recovery control. Obviously, the effectiveness of security defense targeting only one aspect is limited. Therefore, in this paper, a set of security defense processes is proposed for the case that a CPS containing multiple sensors is subject to three kinds of stealthy attacks (i.e., zero-dynamics attack, covert attack, and replay attack). Firstly, the existing attack detection method based on improved residuals is used to detect stealthy attacks. Secondly, based on the detection results, an optimal state estimation method based on improved Kalman filtering is proposed to estimate the actual state of the system. Then, based on the optimal state, internal model control (IMC) is introduced to complete the recovery control of the system. Finally, the proposed methods are integrated to give a complete security defense process, and the simulation is verified for three kinds of stealthy attacks. The simulation results show that the proposed methods are effective.

With data for SARS-CoV-2 and with many countries entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Model Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Peak Contagion (MESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the MESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. It is possible to use MESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.

Gas Path Analysis and matching turbine engine models to experimental data are inverse problems of mathematical modelling which are characterized by parametric uncertainty. This results from the fact that the number of measured parameters is significantly lower than the number of components’ performance parameters needed to describe the real engine. In these conditions, even small measurement errors can result in a high variation of results, and obtained efficiency, loss factors etc. can appear out of the physical range. The current methods of engine model identification have developed considerably to provide stable, precise and physically adequate solutions. Presented in this work is an estimation method of engine components’ parameters based on multi-criteria identification which provides stable estimations of parameters and their confidence intervals with the known measurement errors. A priori information about the engine, its parameters and performance is used directly in the regularised identification procedure. The mathematical basis for this approach is the fuzzy sets theory. Forming objective functions and scalar convolutions synthesis of these functions is used to estimate gas-path components’ parameters. A comparison of the proposed approach with traditional methods showed that its main advantage is high stability of estimation in the parametric uncertainty conditions. Regularization reduces scattering, excludes incorrect solutions which do not correspond to a priori assumptions, and also helps to implement the Gas Path Analysis at the limited number of measured parameters. The method can be used for matching thermodynamic models to experimental data, Gas Path Analysis and also adapting dynamic models for the needs of the engine control system.

Water depth estimation holds paramount importance in various domains including navigation, environmental monitoring, and resource management. Traditional depth measurement methods such as bathymetry can often be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming, especially in remote or inaccessible areas. This study delves into the application of machine learning techniques, with a specific focus on the Baidu Easy DL model, for water depth estimation leveraging satellite imagery. Utilizing Sentinel-2 satellite data over Rushikonda Beach in India and processing it into remote sensing reflectance using the ACOLITE software, the research compares the performance of several machine learning algorithms, including the Stumpf Model, Log-Linear Model, and the Baidu Easy DL Model, for accurate depth estimation. The results indicate that the Easy-DL model outperforms traditional methods, particularly excelling in the 0-11 meter depth range. This study showcases the substantial potential of machine learning in the realm of remote sensing, offering robust water depth estimates, even in complex coastal environments. Furthermore, it underscores the critical role of comprehensive training datasets and ensemble learning techniques in enhancing accuracy. This research not only opens avenues for further exploration of machine learning applications in remote sensing but also highlights the promising prospects of online model APIs in streamlining remote sensing data processing.

The interest on the use of renewable energy resources is increasing, especially towards wind and hydro powers, which should be efficiently converted into electric energy via suitable technology tools. To this aim, data--driven control techniques represent viable strategies that can be employed for this purpose, due to the features of these nonlinear dynamic processes working over a wide range of operating conditions, driven by stochastic inputs, excitations and disturbances. Some of the considered methods, such as fuzzy and adaptive self--tuning controllers, were already verified on wind turbine systems, and similar advantages may thus derive from their appropriate implementation and application to hydroelectric plants. These issues represent the key features of the work, which provides some guidelines on the design and the application of these control strategies to these energy conversion systems. The working conditions of these systems will be also taken into account in order to highlight the reliability and robustness characteristics of the developed control strategies, especially interesting for remote and relatively inaccessible location of many installations.

Studies employing Arellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond GMM estimation for single linear dynamic panel data models are growing exponentially in number. However, for researchers it is hard to make a reasoned choice between many different possible implementations of these estimators and associated tests. By simulation the effects are examined of many options regarding: (i) reducing, extending or modifying the set of instruments; (ii) specifying the weighting matrix in relation to the type of heteroskedasticity; (iii) using (robustified) 1-step or (corrected) 2-step variance estimators; (iv) employing 1-step or 2-step residuals in Sargan-Hansen overall or incremental overidentification restrictions tests. This is all done for models in which some regressors may be either strictly exogenous, predetermined or endogenous. Surprisingly, particular asymptotically optimal and relatively robust weighting matrices are found to be superior in finite samples to ostensibly more appropriate versions. Most of the variants of tests for overidentification restrictions show serious deficiencies. A recently developed modification of GMM is found to have great potential when the cross-sectional heteroskedasticity is pronounced and the time-series dimension of the sample not too small. Finally all techniques are employed to actual data and lead to some profound insights.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

In this paper we describe a nonparametric maximum likelihood (NPML) method for estimating multivariate mixing distributions. Given $N$ independent observations, convexity theory shows that the NPML estimator is discrete with at most $N$ support points. The original infinite NPML problem then becomes the finite dimensional problem of finding the location and probability of the support points. The probability of the support points is found by a Primal-Dual Interior-Point method; the location of the support points is found by an Adaptive Grid method. Our method is able to handle high-dimensional and complex multivariate mixture models.An important application is discussed for the problem of population pharmacokinetics and a non-trivial example is treated.Our algorithm has been successfully applied in hundreds of published pharmacometric studies. In addition to population pharmacokinetics, this research also applies to empirical Bayes estimation and many other areas of applied mathematics.

The first case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, COVID-19 has quickly spread out to all provinces in China and over 150 countries or territories in the world. With the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) launched over the country, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China is achieving under control in China. We develop a mathematical model based on epidemiology of COVID-19, incorporating the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and close contacts. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers 2.5 in China (excluding Hubei province) and 2.9 in Hubei province with the initial time on January 30 which show the severe infectivity of COVID-19, and verify that the current isolation method effectively contains the transmission of COVID-19. Under the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and close contacts, we find a noteworthy phenomenon that is the potential second epidemic of COVID-19, and estimate the peak time and value and the cumulative number of cases. Simulations show that the isolation of close contacts tracked measure can efficiently contain the transmission of the potential second epidemic of COVID-19. With isolation of all susceptible people or all infected people or both, there is no potential second epidemic of COVID-19. Furthermore, resumption of work and study can increase the transmission risk of the potential second epidemic of COVID-19.

This paper aims at achieving optimal rotor speed estimation for an induction motor using the Extended Kalman filter (EKF). Speed estimation is essential for fault diagnosis in Motor Current Signature Analysis (MCSA). The estimation accuracy is obtained by exploring the noise covariance matrices estimation of the EKF algorithm. The noise covariance matrices are determined using a modified subspace model identification approach. In order to reach this goal, this method compares an estimated model of a deterministic system, derived from available input-output datasets, with the discrete-time state-space representation used in the Kalman filter equations. This comparison leads to the determination of model uncertainties, which are subsequently represented as noise covariance matrices. Based on the 5th order nonlinear model of the induction motor, rotor speed is estimated with the optimized EKF algorithm and the used algorithm is tested experimentally.

Predicting ground reaction forces (GRFs) and ground reaction moments (GRMs) through a biomechanical model-based approach offers advantages for biomechanical analysis, particularly in situations where the application of a statistical model is limited by insufficient training data. However, the current prediction method is unsuitable for clinical applications due to its long computational time. The present study developed a new optical motion capture (OMC)-based method to predict GRFs, GRMs, and joint torques. The proposed approach performed the estimation process by distributing external forces, as determined by the equation of motion, between the left and right feet based on foot deformations, thereby predicting the GRFs and GRMs without relying on machine learning or optimization techniques. We investigated the prediction accuracy during walking by comparing a conventional analysis using a force plate with the OMC results. The comparison revealed excellent or strong correlations between the prediction and measurement for all GRFs, GRMs, and lower limb joint torques. The proposed method, which provides practical estimation with low computational cost, facilitates efficient biomechanical analysis and rapid feedback of analysis results, thereby increasing its applicability for kinetics estimation in clinical settings.

This paper presents an approach to the application of the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and Model-Based Systems Architecting (MBSA) principles to develop a Model-Based Pattern Language (MBPL). It takes too long for systems engineers and architects to develop a new system from scratch, particularly new space-based systems derived from the existing space systems architectures. A pattern language is a holistic view of reusable logical model artifacts; many are interdisciplinary and introductory, if at all. The results are mostly a combination of the application-specific logical solution, which further results in the best possible overall solution. The main benefit of the pattern language is reducing the time and validation required to generate a new space-based system architecture; this approach will develop top-level requirements in the initial phase of the system development. The rationale of the methodology proposed by the paper is as follows, collect, and decompose published literature and other open-source information available on space system architectures and system models; develop SysML models for systems, subsystems, products, assembly, subassembly level, and mission-specific requirements using CAMEO SysML software. Arrange these patterns to develop a functional ontology and construct a logical architecture pattern library. This approach created, updated, and managed SysML pattern language, which evaluated the expedited new model construction. Again, our objective is to develop a logical pattern language using public domain information and evaluate patterns by constructing a new space mission concept—for example, planetary surface habitat.

The deployment of Electro-Mechanical Actuators plays an important role towards the adoption of the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) philosophy. On the other hand, a seamless substitution of EMAs in place of more traditional hydraulic solutions is still set back due to the shortage of real-life and reliability data regarding their failure modes. One way to work around this problem is providing a capillary EMA Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system, capable of recognizing failures before they actually undermine the ability of the safety-critical system to perform its functions. The authors have developed a model-based prognostic framework for PMSM based EMAs leveraging a metaheuristic algorithm: Evolutionary (Differential Evolution (DE)) and swarm intelligence (particle swarm (PSO), grey wolf (GWO)) methods are considered. Several failures (dry friction, backlash, short circuit, eccentricity and proportional gain) are simulated thanks to a Reference Model, acting as a Numerical Test Bench, then detected and identified thanks to the envisioned prognostic method, which leverages a low fidelity Monitoring Model. The employed algorithms showed good results and prove that this strategy could be executed in pre-flight checks or during the flight at specific time intervals, with positive impacts on system safety and availability.

Understanding surface water evaporation in tropical catchments is pivotal for effective water management, but limited research exists on stable isotopic (δ2H and δ18O) assessment of water evaporation losses. Our study bridges that gap, examining stable isotopes in meteoric water and surface waters across tropical regions, both humid and semi-arid. Using the Craig-Gordon model, we calibrated evaporation-to-inflow (E/I) ratios, identifying distinct E/I variations between seasons and regions. Notably, the semi-arid region consistently exhibited higher E/I ratios due to climatic characteristics. By integrating the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and the No-U-Turn Sampler, we were able to quantify uncertainties in isotopic and meteorological parameters, resulting in E/I estimates within 68% and 95% confidence intervals. Our Bayesian model insights are critical for freshwater resource optimization and hydrological modeling in tropical regions.

Unhealthy diet is an important health problem in the region of the Americas, and Uruguay does not escape this reality. Nutritional problems in Uruguayan school-age children are overweight and obesity. Caloric intake is excessive for 60% of children and 28% of calories come from ultra-processed products (UPP) [CODICEN 2021] [MIDES 2020) (Köncke, Toledo, 2021). In 2018, an evaluation of food intake was conducted in a representative sample of public schools in the city of Montevideo. Food and preparations were categorized according to the NOVA system, later they were analyzed according to the Pan American Health Oganization nutrient profile model (PAHO NPM). Only 0.52% of children consumed exclusively natural foods, unprocessed, minimally processed or culinary ingredients. Twenty-five percent of children consumed ≥ 4 products categorized with excessive content of free sugars, total fat or saturated fat according to the PAHO NPM; in the case of excessive sodium this was 40%. In general, children who included products with excessive free sugars, sodium or saturated fat in their diet exceeded the limits established by PAHO and as a result their diet is of poorer nutritional quality compared to children who did not consume such products.

In recent years, the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in accounting has grown in many domains, including auditing. AI permits auditors to evaluate large data sets and rapidly identify discrepancies and sequences in audit. This means auditors can review all of a client's transactions via a low time and effort. This entails auditing firms investing heavily in technological infrastructure as well as training their human resources to use cutting-edge AI technologies. Thus, this research sought to investigate the impact of the use of AI techniques by Jordanian external auditors in fraud risk assessment, the moderating effect of auditor size. The descriptive analytical method was used by distributing 280 questionnaires electronically to auditors employed in auditing firms operating in Jordan, The result reveals that AI techniques are extremely beneficial in fraud risk assessment at all levels, and the relationship between the use of AI techniques and the assessment of fraud risk has improved as auditor size has increased.

Abstract: Self-regulated Learning has become one of educational psychology's most critical research areas. Contemporary research indicates that student creativity is crucial to the success of arts education. However, there is limited research on creativity in arts education in Self-regulated Learning. Therefore, this study aims to define the creativity characteristics that determine the quality of students’ work. This study implemented a creative competition in painting and composition for first-year undergraduates. It evaluated the characteristics of creativity during the three main phases of the task: planning, execution, and completion. We discovered through semi-open questionnaires (n=178)，and using the content analysis method. According to the competition results, the students with the highest scores in Flow, Inspiration, and Idea Generation in the Performance phase had the best quality work. In the Forethought phase, Analogical Thinking and Idea Generation worked best for most students, while in the Performance phase, Flow Sense, Idea Generation, and Idea Manipulation worked best.Data on creativity characteristics at different work phases and final quality might adequately guide and organize educational procedures. These findings can serve as a theoretical foundation for quantifying the creativity phase in Self-regulated Learning and offer arts educators a reference for creativity instruction.

We estimated the daily intakes of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin via ingestion of indoor dust and outdoor soils using the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model on a probabilistic approach for Taiwan’s homes. Variable information for the daily intake estimation, such as concentration, ingestion rate, body weight, was adopted from previous studies. Monte Carlo simulation was performed with 1,000,000 iterations to simulate a single daily intake, which was shown in terms of percentage of the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of either insecticide. The daily intakes were minimal with a 99% probability; at 99.9th percentile, however, the total intakes leaped to 13.1% and 20.0% of the respective ADIs of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin. The sensitivity analysis indicated that concentration was the most determinant variable. Compared to the data of daily intakes via dietary ingestion of vegetables derived from a previous study, the estimated intakes by this study were considerable at the highest percentile, which referred to insecticide residues few days after insecticide application. Consequently, the non-dietary ingestion exposure to either insecticide was negligible in most cases; nevertheless, for those with indoor insecticide applications, the daily intakes for young children could be of concern. Frequently home cleaning is recommended to reduce the exposure.

In this paper, new types of M-fractional wave solutions of mathematical physics model named as truncated M-fractional (1+1)-dimensional non-linear simplified Modified Camassa-Holm model are achieved by applying the modified simplest equation (MSE), Sardar sub-equation and generalized Kudryashov techniques. The gained solutions containing dark, bright, periodic and mixed wave solitons. Effect of fractional order derivative is also discussed. Achieved wave solitons are verified by Mathematica tool. Few of the gained wave solitons are also described through 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional and contour graphs through Mathematica tool. The gained solutions are helpful for the further development of concerned model. Finally, these techniques are simple, fruitful and effective to deal with non-linear FPDEs.

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

With the rapid development of Earth observation and information technology, people are increasingly able to access geospatial models. Geospatial models, based on principles of geography, utilize mathematical, statistical, as well as computer science methods to interpret and predict geographic phenomena. These models can be applied in the fields such as urban planning, environmental protection, traffic management to help decision-makers solve geography-related problems. However, integrating different geospatial models to collaboratively solve complex geographic problems still faces significant obstacles due to heterogeneity in model structure, dependencies, and running modes. In this study, we propose a containerized service-based integration framework for heterogeneous geospatial models (GeoCSIF). GeoCSIF consists of three main components: (1) Model encapsulation. It breaks down complicated geospatial models into independently manageable model units, and builds as unified service packages with a templated constraint method. (2) Model orchestration. It achieves an optimal combination of large-scale models with complex dependencies using a prioritization-based orchestration method. (3) Model publication. It incorporates heuristics into the model scheduling process, which can provide adaptive deployment for different model runs. Finally, a prototype system was developed to validate the effectiveness and progressiveness of GeoCSIF by the integrating process of heterogeneous flood disaster models.

p-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD) is not only the useful molecular target in treating life-threatening tyrosinemia type I, but also an important target for chemical herbicides. A combined in silico structure-based pharmacophore and molecular docking based virtual screening were performed to identify novel potential HPPD inhibitors. The complex based pharmacophore model (CBP) with 0.721 of ROC used for screening compound showed remarkable ability to retrieve known active ligands from decoy molecule. The ChemDiv database was screened using CBP-Hypo2 as a 3D query, and the best-fit hits subjected to molecular docking with two methods of LibDock and CDOCKER in Accelrys Discovery Studio 2.5(DS 2.5) to discern interactions with key residues at the active site of HPPD. 4 Compounds with top rank in HipHop model and well-known binding model were finally chosen as identification of lead compounds with potentially inhibitory effects on active site of target. The results provided powerful insight to the development of novel HPPD inhibitors herbicides using computational techniques.

The human ankle is a complex joint, most commonly represented as talocrural and subtalar axes. It is difficult to locate and take in vivo measurements of the ankle joint. There are no instruments for patients lying on a bed or the floor; that can be used in outdoor or remote sites. We have developed a "Turmell-meter" to address these issues. We started with the study of ankle anatomy and anthropometry, then we used the product of exponentials’ formula to visualize the movements. Furthermore, we built a prototype using human proportions and statistics. For pose estimation, we used a trilateration method by applying tetrahedral geometry. Additionally, we computed the axis direction by fitting 3D circles, plotting the manifold and chart as an ankle joint model. We presented the results of simulations, a prototype comprising 45 parts, specifically designed draw-wire sensors, and electronics. Finally, we tested the device by capturing positions and fitting them into the bi-axial ankle model as a Riemannian manifold. The Turmell-meter is intended to be a hardware platform for human ankle joint axis estimation, it is adjustable and has an easy setup. The proposed model has the properties of a chart in a geometric manifold, we provided the details

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

Large lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles and energy storage systems demonstrate different performance and lifetime compared to small LIB cells, owing to the size effects generated by the electrical configuration and property imbalance. However, the calculation time for performing life predictions with three-dimensional (3D) cell models is undesirably long. In this paper, a lumped cell model with equivalent resistances (LER cell model) is proposed as a reduced order model of the 3D cell model, which enables accurate and fast life predictions of large LIBs. The developed LER cell model is validated via the comparisons with results of the 3D cell models by simulating a 20-Ah commercial pouch cell (NCM/graphite) and the experimental values. In addition, the LER cell models are applied to different cell types and sizes, such as a 20-Ah cylindrical cell and a 60-Ah pouch cell.

In era of ever-expanding data and knowledge, we lack a centralized system that maps all the faculties to their research works. This problem has not been addressed in the past and it becomes challenging for students to connect with the right faculty of their domain. Since we have so many colleges and faculties this lies in the category of big data problem. In this paper, we present a model which works on the distributed computing environment to tackle big data. The proposed model uses apache spark as an execution engine and hive as database. The results are visualized with the help of Tableau that is connected to Apache Hive to achieve distributed computing.

We present a finite element model updating technique for soil-structure system identification of the Millikan Library building using the seismic data recorded during the 2002 Yorba Linda earthquake. A detailed finite element (FE) model of the Millikan Library building is developed in OpenSees and updated using a sequential Bayesian estimation approach for joint parameter and input identification. A two-step system identification approach is devised. First, the fixed-base structural model is updated to estimate the structural model parameters (including effective elastic modulus of structural components, distributed floor mass, and Rayleigh damping parameters) and some uncertain components of the foundation-level motion. Then, the identified structural model is used for soil-structure model updating wherein the Rayleigh damping parameters, the stiffness and viscosity of the soil subsystem (modeled using a substructure approach), and the foundation input motions (FIMs) are estimated. The identified model parameters are compared with state-of-practice recommendations. While a specific application is made for the Millikan Library, the present work offers a framework for integrating large-scale FE models with measurement data for model inversion. By utilizing this framework for different civil structures and earthquake records, key structural model parameters can be estimated from the real-world recorded data, which can subsequently be used for assessing and improving, as necessary, state-of-the-art seismic analysis and structural modeling techniques. This paper presents an effort towards using real-world measurements for large-scale FE model updating in the soil and structure, uniform soil time domain for joint parameter and input estimation, and thus paves the way for future applications in system identification, health monitoring and diagnosis of civil structures.

This paper describes a new approach that can be used to determine the mechanical properties of unknown materials and complex material systems. The approach uses inverse finite element modelling (FEM) accompanied with a designed algorithm to obtain the modulus of elasticity, yield stress and strain hardening material constants of an isotropic hardening material model, as well as the material constants of the Drucker-Prager material model (modulus of elasticity, cap yield stress and angle of friction). The algorithm automatically feeds the input material properties data to finite element software and automatically runs simulations to establish a convergence between the numerical loading-unloading curve and the target data obtained from continuous indentation tests using common indenter geometries. A further module was developed to optimise convergence using an inverse FEM analysis interfaced with a non-linear MATLAB algorithm. A sensitivity analysis determined that the dual Spherical and Berkovich (S&B) approach delivered better results than other dual indentation methods such as Berkovich and Vickers (B&V) and Vickers and Spherical (V&S). It was found that better convergence values can be achieved despite a large variation in the starting parameter values and / or material constitutive model and such behaviour reflects the uniqueness of the dual S&B indentation in predicting complex material systems. The study has shown that a robust optimization method based on a non-linear least-squares curve fitting function (LSQNONLIN) within MATLAB and ABAQUS can be used to accurately predict a unique set of elastic plastic material properties and Drucker-Prager material properties. This is of benefit to the scientific investigation of properties of new materials or obtaining the material properties at different location of a part which might be not be similar due to manufacturing processes (e.g. different heating and cooling rates at different locations).

The main objective of this work is the design and implementation of self-adaptive capabilities in wireless sensors by applying control engineering and model-based design methodologies. It has been addressed the problem related to the changes in the flow of data packets through the network connection and the excess energy consumption that this causes in these devices. To design the solution, a systemic characterization of the scheduling and execution process of embedded tasks on the device has been carried out. This means defining cause-effect relationships in the system and its modelling theoretically and/or experimentally. In turn, these models facilitate the design of control strategies to improve the dynamic behavior of the system. As a solution, a self-adaptation strategy based on feedforward control algorithm has been designed and developed, which has been applied to improve the dynamic behavior and resource consumption. The developed solution has been satisfactorily evaluated experimentally.

Social recommendation is almost as the integration of the business platform and social platform, and gradually become a top in recommendation system. Social recommendation algorithm solves the problem of cold start and data sparseness for traditional commodity, while the internal structure of the relationship graph in social relations has not been fully excavated. This paper proposes two models of Micro Relation Transfer Model and Macro Relation Transfer Model of social relations, and applies the social relations transfer models into the social recommendation system. A relationship graph is built from the relationship between customers on the Internet. Micro Relation Transfer Model establishes the transfer activation function by calculating the relationship between the two customers using the similarity of interests set. Micro Relation Transfer Model spreads the relationship of friends by calculating the proportion of common neighbors held by the customer's social relations. In order to effectively control the transmission range and effect of social relations graph, we introduce pruning algorithm based on Monte Carlo Decision Tree convergence algorithm. The experimental results show that SRRTC algorithm enhances the success rate and stability significantly.

Modelling and presenting mathematical relationships for human behaviour is one of the most complex issues that researchers have always dealt with. In this article, a bottom-up framework for calculating agricultural needs is presented using the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers (such as education level, age, and dependence on income on agriculture) and how their lands are located concerning each other (interactions between neighbours). The objective function of this framework is to maximize the profit of individual farmers based on the amount of water received. Two scenarios, ABM1 (not considering neighbourhood effects) and ABM2 (all cases of farmers' placement and feeling neighbourhood effects), were investigated. In the first scenario (ABM1), there was a noteworthy reduction in water deficit volumes by approximately 35%, accompanied by a 20% increment in farmers' profits. Interestingly, higher risk-taking tendencies correlated with reduced profit margins. The second scenario (ABM2) underscored the significant role of neighborhood dynamics in cultivating diverse behavioral patterns among farmers, subsequently affecting their profitability. A granular examination revealed that farmers with a higher propensity for risk-taking generally accrued lower profits. Additionally, the study facilitated the calculation of total annual profits and average water consumption for each farmer, offering valuable insights for optimizing water resource management and allocation strategies. These findings are instrumental for planners and water resource managers aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water use.

Industrial process control systems commonly exhibit features of time-varying, strong coupling, and strong nonlinearity. Obtaining accurate mathematical models of these nonlinear systems and achieving satisfactory control performance is still a challenging task. In this paper, data-driven modeling techniques and deep learning methods are used to accurately capture a category of smooth nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal features. The operating point of these systems may change over time, and their nonlinear characteristics can be locally linearized. We established the LSTM-CNN-ARX model by utilizing a fusion of long short-term memory (LSTM) network and convolutional neural network (CNN) to fit the coefficients of the state-dependent exogenous variable autoregressive (SD-ARX) model. Compared to other models, the hybrid LSTM-CNN-ARX model is more effective in capturing the nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal characteristics due to its incorporating the strengths of LSTM for learning temporal characteristics and CNN for capturing spatial characteristics. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategy, namely LSTM-CNN-ARX-MPC, is developed by utilizing the model's local linear and global nonlinear features. The control comparison experiments conducted on a water tank system (WTS) show the effectiveness of the developed models and MPC methods.

For the emerging autonomous swarm technology, from the perspective of systems science and systems engineering, there must be some novel elements and methods to aggregate multiple systems into a group, which distinguish with the general components with specific functions, and we expect to provide the presentation of their existence in the swarm development processes. The inspiration of our methodology origins from the integration of swarm ontology, multi-paradigm modeling, multi-agent system, cyber-physical system, etc. Therefore, we choose the model-driven technology as a framework to acquire an approach of model representation across the multiple levels of abstraction and composition. The autonomous strategic mechanism is defined and formed in parallel with ConOps analysis and systems design, so as to effectively solve the cognitive problem of emergence caused by the nonlinear causation among individual and whole behaviors. This approach highlights to use the MBSE processes and their artifacts to embed the meso mechanism to integrate the operational and the functional, and which means to connect the macro and micro aspects in formalism and so to become a whole with its expected goals, and then to verify and validate within a L-V-C simulation environment.

Infrared sensors are applied more and more widely in industrial production applications. Based on the theory of thermal radiation, this paper discusses the system design principle, temperature calibration method and thermal image analysis method in detail. The system has passed the measurement unit certification, showing that the field of view is 180°, the number of scanning points is 2048, the linear velocity is 10-100Hz, the spatial resolution is 2.5mrad, and the precision is ±1℃. On-line monitoring test has been done in the steelmaking plant of Bao Steel. The results show that the system has strong anti-interference ability, stability and reliability, and meets the application requirements of online monitoring.

Archie model is the basis of calculating oil saturation, but there are some limitations when using this model to calculate oil saturation in water-flooded layer. The main reason is that the main parameters, such as rock resistivity and formation water resistivity, are constantly changing dynamic parameters in the underground with the influence of injected water. Considering that water-flooded layers changes with injection waters, influence factors of rock resistivity and formation water resistivity of primary parameters are analyzed. Considering the dynamic data of water cut is the most reactive underground fluid characteristics of real information, combined with dynamic and static, and the “double ratio” model of later development by the same sedimentary layer is established, which realizes the inversion of rock resistivity and formation water resistivity, then modified Archie model relating to water-flooded layers of the same sedimentary explaining formation. The explanation of actual data indicates that the “double ratio” model well considers the dynamic variation of production data, which makes the inversion of the flooded rock resistivity relatively accurate, besides, the modified Archie model can accurately calculate the oil saturation of water-flooded layers with a reasonable result, which offers scientific basis for the predicting of remaining oil distribution rules.

Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrology impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. Nash coefficient (NSE) for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed was improved by bias correction from 0.69 to 0.84. The standard deviations among the 8 GCM rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.13 to 0.03. Increasing rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for all GCMs used in this study under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

Densely urbanized areas, with a low percentage of green vegetation, are highly exposed to Heat Waves (HW) which nowadays are increasing in terms of frequency and intensity also in the middle-latitude regions, due to ongoing Climate Change (CC). Their negative effects may combine with those of the UHI (Urban Heat Island), a local phenomenon where air temperatures in the compact built up cores of towns increase more than those in the surrounding rural areas, with significant impact on the quality of urban environment, on citizens health and energy consumption and transport, as it has occurred in the summer of 2003 on France and Italian central-northern areas. In this context this work aims at designing and developing a methodology based on aero-spatial remote sensing (EO) at medium-high resolution and most recent GIS techniques, for the extensive characterization of the urban fabric response to these climatic impacts related to the temperature within the general framework of supporting local and national strategies and policies of adaptation to CC. Due to its extension and variety of built-up typologies, the municipality of Rome was selected as test area for the methodology development and validation. First of all, we started by operating through photointerpretation of cartography at detailed scale (CTR 1: 5000) on a reference area consisting of a transect of about 5x20 km, extending from the downtown to the suburbs and including all the built-up classes of interest. The reference built-up vulnerability classes found inside the transect were then exploited as training areas to classify the entire territory of Rome municipality. To this end, the satellite EO HR (High Resolution) multispectral data, provided by the Landsat sensors were used within a on purpose developed "supervised" classification procedure, based on data mining and “object-classification” techniques. The classification results were then exploited for implementing a calibration method, based on a typical UHI temperature distribution, derived from MODIS satellite sensor LST (Land Surface Temperature) data of the summer 2003, to obtain an analytical expression of the vulnerability model, previously introduced on a semi-empirical basis.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

We introduce the Concept-Model-Graph-View Cycle (CMGVC). The CMGVC facilitates coherent architecture analysis, reasoning, insight, and decision-making based on conceptual models that are transformed into a generic, robust graph data structure (GDS). The GDS is then transformed into multiple views of the model, which inform stakeholders in various ways. This GDS-based approach decouples the view from the model and constitutes a powerful enhancement of model-based systems engineering (MBSE). The CMGVC applies the rigorous foundations of Category Theory, a mathematical framework of representations and transformations. We show that modeling languages are categories, drawing an analogy to programming languages. The CMGVC architecture is superior to direct transformations and language-coupled common representations. We demonstrate the CMGVC to transform a conceptual system architecture model built with the Object Process Modeling Language (OPM) into dual graphs and a stakeholder-informing matrix that stimulates system architecture insight.

Traditionally, studies on freeze–thaw erosion have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of evaluation factors, however, this method cannot accurately depict the fuzziness and randomness of the problem. To overcome this disadvantage, the present study has proposed an improved AHP method based on the cloud model to evaluate the impact factors in freeze–thaw erosion. To establish an improved evaluation method for freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet, the following six factors were selected: annual temperature range, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, vegetation coverage, and topographic relief. The traditional AHP and the cloud model were combined to determine the weight of the impact factors, and a consistency check was performed. The comprehensive evaluation index model was used to evaluate the intensity of freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet. The results show that freeze–thaw erosion is extensive, stretching over approximately 66.1% of Tibet. The problem is the most serious in Ngari Prefecture and Nagqu. However, mild erosion and moderate erosion, accounting for 37.1% and 25.0%, respectively, of the total freeze–thaw erosion are the most widely distributed. The evaluation results for the freeze–thaw erosion was confirmed to be consistent with the actual situation. In brief, this study provided a new approach to evaluate the conditions of freeze–thaw erosion quantitively in Tibet.

Patient value is an important factor in clinical decision-making, but conventionally, it is not incorporated in the decision processes. In this paper, a value-based therapy recommendation comprehensive model is proposed. A literature analysis is conducted to collect value-based evidence. Categorized values and candidate therapies are used in combination as filtering keywords to build this evidence. Then a formalism model is put forward to integrate the value-based evidence with clinical evidence. The relative importance of two evidence can be adjusted dynamically by decision-makers during the decision-making processes. A prototype system was implemented using a case study for breast cancer and validated for feasibility and effectiveness.

Resource pricing in cloud computing has become one of the main challenges for cloud providers. The challenge is determining a fair and appropriate price to satisfy users and resource providers. To determine a fair price, it is necessary to consider the conditions and needs of both parties: provider and user. This research tries to provide a pricing mechanism for cloud computing based on game theory. The proposed mechanism takes into account three factors including fault possibility, interaction between virtual machines, and energy consumption to reach a fair price. In the proposed game, the provider decides on the price of the virtual machine which can be offered to the user on each physical machine and the user decides between the virtual machines offered to run its application. The whole game is implemented as a function of the resource broker component. The proposed mechanism is simulated and evaluated using the CloudSim simulator. Its performance is compared with several previous recent mechanisms. According to the results, the proposed mechanism has been able to determine a more reasonable price for the user and the provider which increases the overall profitability of the cloud system.

This study considers an application of the first-order Grey Markov Model to foresee the values of Italian power generation in relation to the available energy sources. The model is used to fit data from the Italian energy system from 2000 to 2022. The integration of Markovian error introduces a random element to the model, which is able now to capture inherent uncertainties and misalignments between the Grey model predictions and the real data. This application provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the energy sector and future developments. The results show good accuracy of the predictions, which provides powerful information for the effective implementation of energy policies concerning the evolution of energy demand in the country. Despite advancements, Italy’s 2032 energy mix will still significantly rely on fossil fuels, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts beyond 2032 to enhance sustainability.

In order to master the structure state of subway shield tunnel, reduce the diseases and avoid the potential safety hazards, the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnels should be predicted. For the non-stationarity small sample size of subway shield tunnel lateral convergence deformation value, the existing prediction models have poor performance in terms of accuracy and stability. In this paper, a lateral convergence model of subway shield tunnel based on Kalman algorithm is constructed based on Kalman filtering theory. The model is efficient, adaptive and robust, and can accurately predict the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnel. Taking the horizontal diameter of 200 rings shield segment in the interval section of a subway tunnel as an example, it is proved that the residuals of the Kalman prediction model are small, the residual distribution conforms to the normal distribution, and the prediction effect is great. The model is suitable for the prediction of more than 5 periods of data, and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved with the increase of the number of data periods. In addition, the Kalman model is compared with GM(1,1) model and GM-Markov model, and RMSE and MAPE are introduced as evaluation indexes. The results show that the Kalman model has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for predicting the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnel.

This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.

The article proposes a mathematical model for creating playlists based on the emotional utility of the consumer, aiming to maintain high user interest in music streaming platforms (Lugos Abarca, 2024). The proposed method follows these steps: first, it calculates the MEEPE of Songs on the digital platform; subsequently, it quantitatively defines the Consumer's MEEPI before exposure to music; then, it operates the MEEPE of the Songs with the consumer's initial MEEPI using the known resolution process (Lugos Abarca, 2023); finally, it employs an emotional utility function to determine possible levels of emotional satisfaction and establish the playback order. This results in the creation of an efficient theoretical model. It is recommended to expand the computational study of the model in future research by using a broader set of songs and considering various initial MEEPI of the consumer. The article's originality lies in its ability to predict, quantitatively and theoretically, the level of satisfaction a music consumer could experience when listening to a playlist.

An appearance model plays a crucial rule in multi-target tracking. In traditional approaches, the two steps of appearance modeling i.e visual representation and statistically similarity measure are modeled separately. Visual representation is achieved either through hand-crafted features or deep features and statically similarity is measure through a cross entropy loss function. A loss function based on cross-entropy (KL-divergence, mutual information) find closely related probability distribution for the targets. However, if the targets have similar visual representation, it ends up mixing the targets. To tackle this problem, we come up with a synergetic appearance model named Single Shot Appearance Model based on Siamese neural network. The network is trained with a contrastive loss function for finding the similarity between different targets in a single shot. The input to the network is two target patches and based on their similarity, a contrastive score is output by the network. The proposed model is evaluated on accumulative dissimilarity metric on three datasets. Quantitatively, promising results are achieved against three baseline methods.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

Analysis of Fatigue Strain, Fatigue Modulus and Fatigue Damage for the modeling of concrete plays a vital role in the evolution material behaviour which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature. In this paper, the Level-S nonlinear fatigue strain curve, fatigue modulus curve, residual strain curve of concrete in compression, tension, flexure and torsional fatigue loading were proposed using strain life approach. The parameters such as physical meaning, the ranges, and the impact on the shape of the curve were discussed. Then, the evolution model of fatigue modulus was established based on the fatigue strain evolution model, fatigue modulus evaluation model, residual strain evaluation model, secondary strain evaluation model. The hypothesis of fatigue modulus is inversely related with the fatigue strain amplitude. The fatigue evolution of concrete damages the bond between material grains, changed the orientation of structure of molecules and affects the elastic properties resulting in the reduction of material stiffness and modulus by utilizing strain life analysis, regarding stiffness degradation and inelastic deformation by formation of microcracking, macro cracking, cracking which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature . This paper presents the Fatigue Strain Life Model and analyses of fatigue strain, fatigue modulus and damage parameters of concrete which is capable of predicting stiffness degradation, inelastic deformation, strength reduction under fatigue loading. Hence, the obtainable results were compared with experimental results for the validation of the proposed model.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.

Background. We created agent-based model for short- and longterm forecasting of COVID-19 and for evaluation how the actions of the regulator affected the human and material resources of the healthcare system. Methods. The model was implemented in the AnyLogic software. It includes two state charts – social network and disease transmission. The COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-ESFT, version 2.0) was used to determine healthcare resources needed. Results. Satisfactory results were obtained with long-term (up to 50 days) forecasting in the case of a monotonous change in total cases curve. However, if periods of relative stability are accompanied by sudden outbreaks, relatively satisfactory results were obtained with short-term forecasting, up to 10 days. Simulation of various scenarios showed that the most important place for the spread of infection are families. Wherein the maximum number of cases of COVID-19 is observed in the age group of 26-59 years. Due to a set of measures taken by government agencies, the number of cases in Karaganda city was 3.2 times less than was predicted in “no intervention” scenario. Economic effect is estimated at 40 %. Conclusion. Performed model is an attempt to consider as much as possible the peculiarities of the socio-demographic situation in the country. In the future, we will be prepared to some extent for challenges like those we have experienced in the past three years.