Version 1
: Received: 30 March 2020 / Approved: 31 March 2020 / Online: 31 March 2020 (10:20:25 CEST)
How to cite:
Song, H.; Liu, F.; Li, F.; Cao, X.; Wang, H.; Jia, Z.; Zhu, H.; Li, M.; Lin, W.; Yang, H.; Hu, J.; Jin, Z. The Impact of Isolation on the Transmission of COVID-19 and Estimation of Potential Second Epidemic in China. Preprints2020, 2020030456. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202003.0456.v1
Song, H.; Liu, F.; Li, F.; Cao, X.; Wang, H.; Jia, Z.; Zhu, H.; Li, M.; Lin, W.; Yang, H.; Hu, J.; Jin, Z. The Impact of Isolation on the Transmission of COVID-19 and Estimation of Potential Second Epidemic in China. Preprints 2020, 2020030456. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202003.0456.v1
Song, H.; Liu, F.; Li, F.; Cao, X.; Wang, H.; Jia, Z.; Zhu, H.; Li, M.; Lin, W.; Yang, H.; Hu, J.; Jin, Z. The Impact of Isolation on the Transmission of COVID-19 and Estimation of Potential Second Epidemic in China. Preprints2020, 2020030456. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202003.0456.v1
APA Style
Song, H., Liu, F., Li, F., Cao, X., Wang, H., Jia, Z., Zhu, H., Li, M., Lin, W., Yang, H., Hu, J., & Jin, Z. (2020). The Impact of Isolation on the Transmission of COVID-19 and Estimation of Potential Second Epidemic in China. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202003.0456.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Song, H., Jianghong Hu and Zhen Jin. 2020 "The Impact of Isolation on the Transmission of COVID-19 and Estimation of Potential Second Epidemic in China" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202003.0456.v1
Abstract
The first case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, COVID-19 has quickly spread out to all provinces in China and over 150 countries or territories in the world. With the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) launched over the country, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China is achieving under control in China. We develop a mathematical model based on epidemiology of COVID-19, incorporating the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and close contacts. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers 2.5 in China (excluding Hubei province) and 2.9 in Hubei province with the initial time on January 30 which show the severe infectivity of COVID-19, and verify that the current isolation method effectively contains the transmission of COVID-19. Under the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and close contacts, we find a noteworthy phenomenon that is the potential second epidemic of COVID-19, and estimate the peak time and value and the cumulative number of cases. Simulations show that the isolation of close contacts tracked measure can efficiently contain the transmission of the potential second epidemic of COVID-19. With isolation of all susceptible people or all infected people or both, there is no potential second epidemic of COVID-19. Furthermore, resumption of work and study can increase the transmission risk of the potential second epidemic of COVID-19.
Keywords
COVID-19; mathematical model; basic reproduction number; potential second epidemic; isolation; close contacts
Subject
Public Health and Healthcare, Health Policy and Services
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
