Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

An Investigation of Modelling Accuracy Needs for Urban Design Flood Estimation

Version 1 : Received: 12 October 2020 / Approved: 13 October 2020 / Online: 13 October 2020 (09:46:03 CEST)

How to cite: Ball, J.E. An Investigation of Modelling Accuracy Needs for Urban Design Flood Estimation. Preprints 2020, 2020100269 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0269.v1). Ball, J.E. An Investigation of Modelling Accuracy Needs for Urban Design Flood Estimation. Preprints 2020, 2020100269 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0269.v1).

Abstract

Flood Management remains a major problem in many urban environments. Commonly, catchment models are used to generate the data needed for estimation of flood risk; event-based and continuous-based models have been used for this purpose. Use of catchment models requires calibration and validation with a calibration metric used to assess the predicted catchment response against the recorded catchment response. In this study, a continuous model based on SWMM using the Powells Creek catchment as a case study is investigated. Calibration of the model was obtained using 25 selected events from the monitored data for the catchment. Assessment of the calibration used a normalised peak flow error. Using alternative sets of parameter values to obtain estimates of the peak flow for each of the selected events and different accuracy criteria, the best datasets for each of the accuracy criteria were identified. These datasets were used with SWMM in a continuous simulation mode to predict flow sequences for extraction of Annual Maxima Series for an At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis. From analysis of these At-Site Flood Frequency Analyses, it was concluded that the normalised peak flow error needed to be less than 10% if reliable design flood quantile estimates were to be obtained.

Subject Areas

urban; flood; calibration; model; SWMM; continuous

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