Version 1
: Received: 5 January 2021 / Approved: 6 January 2021 / Online: 6 January 2021 (11:37:37 CET)
How to cite:
Ayugi, B.; Dike, V.; Ngoma, H.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections. Preprints2021, 2021010112. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
Ayugi, B.; Dike, V.; Ngoma, H.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections. Preprints 2021, 2021010112. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
Ayugi, B.; Dike, V.; Ngoma, H.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections. Preprints2021, 2021010112. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
APA Style
Ayugi, B., Dike, V., Ngoma, H., Babaousmail, H., & Ongoma, V. (2021). Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Ayugi, B., Hassen Babaousmail and Victor Ongoma. 2021 "Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.
Keywords
CMIP6; extreme precipitation; model evaluation; east Africa
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
