Version 1
: Received: 30 August 2023 / Approved: 31 August 2023 / Online: 31 August 2023 (09:37:07 CEST)
How to cite:
Koichubekov, B.; Korshukov, I.; Takuadina, A.; Sorokina, M.; Turmukhambetova, A. The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling. Preprints2023, 2023082129. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.2129.v1
Koichubekov, B.; Korshukov, I.; Takuadina, A.; Sorokina, M.; Turmukhambetova, A. The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling. Preprints 2023, 2023082129. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.2129.v1
Koichubekov, B.; Korshukov, I.; Takuadina, A.; Sorokina, M.; Turmukhambetova, A. The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling. Preprints2023, 2023082129. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.2129.v1
APA Style
Koichubekov, B., Korshukov, I., Takuadina, A., Sorokina, M., & Turmukhambetova, A. (2023). The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.2129.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Koichubekov, B., Marina Sorokina and Anar Turmukhambetova. 2023 "The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.2129.v1
Abstract
Background. We created agent-based model for short- and longterm forecasting of COVID-19 and for evaluation how the actions of the regulator affected the human and material resources of the healthcare system.
Methods. The model was implemented in the AnyLogic software. It includes two state charts – social network and disease transmission. The COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-ESFT, version 2.0) was used to determine healthcare resources needed.
Results. Satisfactory results were obtained with long-term (up to 50 days) forecasting in the case of a monotonous change in total cases curve. However, if periods of relative stability are accompanied by sudden outbreaks, relatively satisfactory results were obtained with short-term forecasting, up to 10 days.
Simulation of various scenarios showed that the most important place for the spread of infection are families. Wherein the maximum number of cases of COVID-19 is observed in the age group of 26-59 years. Due to a set of measures taken by government agencies, the number of cases in Karaganda city was 3.2 times less than was predicted in “no intervention” scenario. Economic effect is estimated at 40 %.
Conclusion. Performed model is an attempt to consider as much as possible the peculiarities of the socio-demographic situation in the country. In the future, we will be prepared to some extent for challenges like those we have experienced in the past three years.
Public Health and Healthcare, Health Policy and Services
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
