Submitted:
24 June 2020
Posted:
29 June 2020
You are already at the latest version
Preprints on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2
Abstract
The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. I used ARIMA Model, Diffusion Model, SIRD Model and Prophet Model to forecast the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Results depicts that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases between June 2020 and July, 2020.
Keywords:
COVID-19
; Epidemiology
; COVID-19 Analysis and Forecast in Pakistan
; Forecasting
; Estimation
; ARIMA
; Prophet
; SIRD
; Diffusion
; Analysis
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
