ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0741.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Risk attitude, farmers, multiple price list, climate change.
Online: 31 October 2018 (08:24:07 CET)
Risk attitudes are relevant factors affecting the production and investment decisions at farm level. They are key factors that are related to farmers’ attitudes towards environment and climate change. Several methodological approaches are available to measure the level of stated risk of an economic agent. The Multiple Price List (MPL) method is one of the methods that is gaining relevance. In this study we apply the MPL and relate the risk outcomes with farmers’ characteristics and their perception towards environment and climate change. Data was collected using a face to face survey carried out for a group of 370 agricultural producers of the irrigation district located in northwest of Mexico. Results showed an average risk of about 0.32, locating the agricultural producers of the region in a group with risk aversion, according to the MPL scale. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the socioeconomic factors and the perceptions towards climate change are related to the farmers´ stated risk level. Farmers who are young women with propensity to use public support to invest were shown to be greater risk lovers. Farmers in the region have perceived climate change to a greater extent like floods, hail, diseases and pests, and changing vegetation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0092.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: climate adaptation; flexibility; flood risk management; urban adaptation
Online: 20 January 2017 (04:25:55 CET)
Adaptation to climate change is being addressed in many domains. This means that there are multiple perspectives on adaptation; often with differing visions resulting in disconnected responses and outcomes. Combining singular perspectives into coherent, combined perspectives that include multiple needs and visions can help to deepen the understanding of various aspects of adaptation and provide more effective responses. Such combinations of perspectives can help to increase the range and variety of adaptation measures available for implementation or avoid maladaptation compared with adaptations derived from a singular perspective. The objective of this paper is to present and demonstrate a framework for structuring the local adaptation responses using the inputs from multiple perspectives. The adaptation response framing has been done by: (i) contextualizing climate change adaptation needs; (ii) analyzing drivers of change; (iii) characterizing measures of adaptation; and (iv) establishing links between the measures with a particular emphasis on taking account of multiple perspectives. This framework was demonstrated with reference to the management of flood risks in a case study Can Tho, Vietnam. The results from the case study show that multiple perspective framing of adaptation responses enhance the understanding of various aspects of adaptation measures, thereby leading to flexible implementation practices.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0289.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: adaptation failure; adaptation planning; economic interests; climate change; ecosystem spillovers; policy; risk perception; transformation
Online: 27 October 2019 (02:54:10 CET)
The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy and programming spaces exercabates the risk of ecological degradation, more so, degradation of land. In particular use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, little if any policy assessments and research effort has been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. The findings from small-scale farmers, Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy and information support, as well as, poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such Human-Environment system interactions have the potential to exercabate existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have significant effect on behaviour about mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritises proactive mitigation of slow onset disaster risks and broadens decision support systems, such as, risk information dissemination integration into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0284.v1
Subject: Keywords: Climate change; Scientific uncertainty; Moral uncertainty; Deep uncertainty; Risk; IPCC; Storylines; Probability; Expected utility
Online: 13 August 2021 (08:26:29 CEST)
While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Climate change risk; carbon dioxide; asset pricing modeling
Online: 12 July 2021 (12:01:49 CEST)
In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0304.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: climate change; econometric analysis; insurance; resilience; risk; tropical cyclones
Online: 30 January 2019 (07:10:54 CET)
Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0172.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Coastal Disasters; Vulnerability; Disaster Risk.
Online: 21 March 2017 (16:41:53 CET)
This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0352.v1
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: climate change; wheat quality; risk assessment; irrigation; CERES-Wheat; yield
Online: 26 December 2019 (10:40:01 CET)
The effects of climate change on yield and quality for different climate regions had high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. The modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and Statistical Down Scaling Model was used for downscaling. CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk of wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions of Shaanxi combined with two climate change scenarios of CanESM2 were assessed. Temperature increased 0.22-3.34 °C and precipitation increased 10-60 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on yield in all regions. The yield risk of most regions with climate change decreased 3.8%-25.1%. The GPC risk of all regions with climate change decreased 7.3%-27.2%. Irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, while had totally different effects for the three climatic regions. Yield risk with irrigation decreased 37.7%-52.1% in different climate. In contrast to previous studies, GPC risk with irrigation increased greatly 25.8%-28.9% in humid region, 3.9%-8.8% in sub-humid region, and decreased 37.7%-52.1% in semi-arid region. Climate change decreased yield risk and GPC risk together. While irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, had totally different effects for the three climatic regions.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0105.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: Climate change; disaster risk reduction; participatory scenario planning; pastoralism; Ethiopia
Online: 10 August 2016 (10:14:00 CEST)
Climate change is a major development challenge to Ethiopia. Unless adaptation measures are widely implemented, climate change can set back development efforts and achievements by years. Recognizing this, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and civil society organizations have since recently been making considerable efforts to tackle the climate change problem. This paper documents the experience of CARE International in Ethiopia in facilitating bottom-up approaches to promote community-led disaster risk management and climate change adaptation planning through a participator scenario planning (PSP) methodology. PSP is a coordinated approach which leverages a variety of stakeholders' skills and mandates to explore potential climate change risks and their impacts, and then develop locally relevant and shared adaptation action plans that support livelihoods, social capital and ecosystem resilience. The approach has facilitated timely access to and communication of seasonal climate advisories which in turn is empowering communities to take advantage of opportunities that climate presents, which is a key part of adapting to climate change. The institutionalization of the approach by district and regional disaster prevention and food security coordination offices in the southern pastoral regions of Ethiopia encouraged integration of PSP into community livelihood adaptation and local government development planning, hence continuity of the process. Sustainability is expected to be fully achieved when local government planning processes recognize the importance of and provides resources for the participation of meteorological services and community forecasting experts to help refine plans on a seasonal basis, and for systems for dissemination of advisories. Key words: Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction, Adaptation, Pastoralism, Ethiopia,
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0045.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: railway infrastructure; high-speed rail; tracks; risk; management and monitoring; climate change; global warming; adaptation; operational readiness
Online: 5 August 2016 (05:11:02 CEST)
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over five decades to millennia. Globally the atmosphere and ocean is increasingly getting warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the total increasing temperature globally averaged combined land and surface between the average of the 1850-1900 period and the 2003 to 2012 period is 0.78 °C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such the relatively small change? The importance is not the mean of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the difference in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays to train services. During the period of flood, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration, high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion on to the infrastructure as well as additional quasi-static burden exerted. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0020.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: longevity risk; s-forwards; pricing; risk margin; solvency II
Online: 1 May 2017 (11:39:12 CEST)
Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0097.v1
Subject: Keywords: conservation practice, ecosystem, impact, IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, monitoring, risk assessment
Online: 7 December 2018 (17:50:24 CET)
In 2014, the International Union for Conservation of Nature adopted the Red List of Ecosystems (IUCN RLE) criteria as the global standard for assessing risks to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems. Identifying and quantifying the impacts of biodiversity assessments on the status of nature is key to justifying continued investment in assessments and enabling strategic planning to maximize future impact. In this policy perspective, we use an established impact evaluation framework to identify the impacts of the IUCN RLE since its inception. To date, 1,397 ecosystem units in 100 countries have been assessed following the IUCN RLE protocol. Systematic assessments are complete or underway in more than 25 countries and two continental regions (the Americas and Europe). Countries with established ecosystem red lists have already used them to inform legislation, land-use planning, protected area expansion, monitoring and reporting, and ecosystem management. IUCN RLE indices based on systematic assessments have high potential to inform global biodiversity reporting for the Aichi Targets and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Expanding the coverage of IUCN RLE assessments, building capacity to undertake them, and establishing stronger policy instruments to manage red-listed ecosystems will be key to maximizing conservation impacts over the coming decades.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Organizational Economics & Management Keywords: Economic risk assessment, capital-based framework, six-capital framework, climate response, climate adaptation, urban resilience
Online: 2 March 2021 (15:47:00 CET)
Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0439.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Dentistry Keywords: KAP; Dental professionals; COVID-19; Pandemic; risk of infection, SARS-CoV-2
Online: 18 September 2020 (12:15:24 CEST)
Background: Dental professions are at high risk of contracting novel corona virus (COVID-19) infections during the dental procedure due to the droplets and aerosols generated during various dental procedures on infected patients. To prevent and avoid the cross-infection of the infection to dental professionals or the patients attending the dental clinic, good knowledge of the infection and its prevention mechanisms is mandatory among the professionals. Until to date, there is no pooled estimate on the knowledge,attitude and practice (KAP) of dental professionals to COVID-19 in the globe. Hence, this study aimed to determine the pooled estimate of KAP of dental professionals in this pandemic disease. Methods: Article search was done electronically using Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE, SciELO and Google Scholar from June 1, 2020 to August 20, 2020. All studies that assessed the KAP of dental professionals to COVID-19 were searched and included in this review after passing the inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis of their knowledge (sign and symptom, mode of transmission and prevention mechanisms), attitude (their concern, intention to treat suspected patients) and practice (face mask usage, hand washing and alcohol based hand rub usage, handshaking practice, deferred procedures and checkup of patients temperature) was computed using RevMan 5.3 and random effect model was used. The presence of publication bias was assessed using the funnel plot. Results: Twelve articles with a total of 5,362 study participants were included in this study. The pooled estimate revealed that 59.91% of the dental professionals had good knowledge of the signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Two-third of dental professionals know the prevention mechanisms of the infection, and 70.13% had enough knowledge of the transmission modalities of the infection. The professional attitude revealed that only 36.43% of the participants had intention to treat a patient with cough or suspected COVID-19 (36.43%, 95%CI: 8.57, 64.29). Moreover, 47.85% of the dentists were concerned about their life, and the fate of their profession due to this pandemic disease (47.85%, 95%CI: 26.74, 68.97). The pooled analysis showed only 50.86% (95%CI: 18.64, 83.09) of the study participants worn face mask and 52.63% (95%CI: 10.54, 94.71) had avoided handshaking practice during this pandemic period. Non-emergency dental procedures were canceled by 83.98%. Conclusion: The dental professional KAP is not optimal. Thus, dental professionals should be aware of the recently updated knowledge about COVID-19 and practice according to the standards of treatment guidelines, and the recommended infection control measures in dental settings. Moreover, as saliva and droplets are the major sources of infection, dentists should follow essential protocols to regulate droplet and aerosol contamination in the dental practice
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0058.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: climate risk; climate change; public perception
Online: 6 August 2016 (04:59:47 CEST)
Even though Greece is considered a vulnerable region in terms of climate hazards, public perception and attitude do not always identify climate change as an important environmental area of concern, especially when compared to socio-economic issues. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this paper analyses trends that exist, peoples’ opinion and awareness with regards to climate risk and how willing they are to change current lifestyle, to pay or to act to minimize or to prevent the risk. Conventional wisdom of this paper is to highlight factors that influence individual perception and point out drivers of behavior change that can support efficiently future adaptation plans.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0166.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: Climate information services; pilot projects; climate risk management, systematic literature review
Online: 18 February 2019 (16:53:45 CET)
Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0337.v1
Online: 15 July 2020 (12:27:50 CEST)
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused mankind serious confusion, economic havoc and psychological distress. This study evaluated the level of knowledge, attitude and perception about COVID-19 pandemic, infection control and impact among veterinarians in Nigeria. A cross-sectional online survey was used to collect data from consenting respondents during implementation of lockdown in the country (April 23 - May 31, 2020). Purposive and chain referral sampling techniques were used to recruit 368 respondents from various sectors of the profession. The proportion of respondents surveyed 197/368 (53.5 %) were from the public sector, 35.3 % from private sector, 1.1 % were unemployed and 0.8 % retired. Majority of the respondents were males (72.8 %), within 30 – 39 years (39.7 %) and had 1 – 10 years work experience. Respondents displayed good level of knowledge about COVID-19 (72.4 % ± 9.9 %, range 44.1-91.2 %), with information mostly derived from TV/Radio (81.5%) and social media (81.0 %). The overall attitude level was poor and various determinants for good attitude among respondents were if they were above 60 years (p = 0.013), possessed postgraduate qualification ( p = 0.031), worked over 30 years post DVM (p = 0.001), had household members between 5 and 10 (p = 0.012), and were resident in states on total lockdown (p = 0.024). There was no correlation between the knowledge level score and respondents’ attitude towards the pandemic (p = 0.12). With increasing rate of COVID-19 transmission, research data are needed to develop evidence-driven strategies, policies and eﬀective risk mitigations to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impacts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0241.v1
Subject: Materials Science, Biomaterials Keywords: tribotechnical diagnostics; engine oil; wear out; oil change interval; risk analysis
Online: 12 October 2020 (12:44:36 CEST)
This article focuses on the issue of motor oils used in the engines of off-road mobile machinery (NRMM), more specifically tractors. The primary goal of the paper is to determine the appropriate replacement interval for these oils. The physical properties of the examined samples were first determined by conventional instruments. Furthermore, the concentration of abrasive metals, contaminants, and additive elements were measured using an optical emission spectrometer. Lastly, the content of water, fuel, glycol, and the products of oxidation, nitration, and sulphation were determined by using infrared spectrometry. The measured values were compared to the limit values. Based on the processing and evaluation of these analyses, the overall condition of the oils was assessed and subsequently the optimal exchange interval of the examined oils was determined. In addition, a risk analysis of the outage was performed. Due to the high yields of crops, farmers can lose a significant amount of product when a tractor is not functioning during the harvest period. This loss for calculated in the paper.
Subject: Keywords: water saving; resistance to change; perceived risk; intentions; Sustainable Development Goal 12
Online: 19 April 2021 (14:25:22 CEST)
Both academic literature and global organizations have emphasized the need for responsible water consumption, as stated in the Sustainable Development Goal 12. However, individuals’ water-saving behaviors in their current state are not enough. This situation entails a resistance to change (RC) in consumer habits and a lack of perceived risk of scarcity. The novelty of this study lies in examining the influence of RC (through its emotional, cognitive, and confidence components) and perceived risk on water-saving intention. Interviews (n = 384) were conducted in the southeast Mediterranean area of Spain by interviewers using a paper-and-pencil questionnaire. The results of the structural equation modeling show that the perceived risk and the components of cognitive rigidity and negative emotions exert a direct influence on water-saving habits and an indirect influence on water-saving intention. None of the components of RC directly influence intention, and a lack of confidence in the outcomes of water saving does not influence water-saving habits or water-saving intention. In addition to the results obtained, the novelty of the work lies in the idea that in order to influence the perception of the risk of water scarcity through awareness campaigns, it is better to use an emotional message rather than showing facts or information, because this does not drive water saving behavior.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0084.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Genetics Keywords: Donkey; breeding; twinning; heritability; REML; risk factors
Online: 5 November 2018 (04:13:35 CET)
Multiple births or twinning in equids are dangerous, undesirable situations that compromise the life of the dam and resulting offspring. However, embryo vitrification and freezing techniques take advantage of individuals whose multiple ovulations allow flushing more fertilised embryos from the oviduct to be collected, increasing the productivity and profitability of such techniques. Embryo preservation is especially important in highly endangered populations such as certain donkey (Equus asinus) breeds; for which conventional reproductive techniques have previously failed. For instance, becoming an effective alternative to artificial insemination with frozen semen to preserve the individuals’ genetic material. The objective of this study was to examine the historical foaling records of Andalusian donkeys to estimate genetic parameters for multiple births, assessing the historical foal number born per animal, maximum foal number per birth and multiple birth number per animal. We designed an Animal Model with single records considering the fixed effects of birthyear, birth season, sex, farm, and husbandry system, and age as a linear and quadratic covariate. Restricted maximum likelihood reported heritability estimates ranging from 0.18±0.01 to 0.24±0.01. Genetic and phenotypic correlations ranged from 0.01±0.01 to 0.83±0.01 and 0.12±0.01 and 0.53±0.01, respectively. These estimates enable the potential for selection against/for these traits, offering a new perspective for donkey breeding and conservation.
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; ambient temperature; risk level; mortality
Online: 6 July 2020 (10:25:09 CEST)
COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through affecting microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Ambient temperature (AT) has been roughly associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To translate into a feasible practice in controlling COVID-19 pandemic, in-depth and implementable knowledge of AT role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be unveiled. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 30, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 26.89 ºC (25.18 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.81. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 5.05 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June, respectively. MDPM low-risk rates (<2) in countries with AT >25 ºC were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 52.46%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Ventilation and sanitizing the air with ultraviolet light in nonbusiness hours may be additionally effective. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0477.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: Merapi Volcano; Indonesia; Natural Hazards; Disaster Risk and Point-cloud technology
Online: 29 August 2022 (08:34:39 CEST)
Spatial approach based on the deformation measurement of volcanic dome and crater rim is key to evaluate the activity of a volcano, such as Merapi volcano where associated disaster risk is regularly taking lives. Within this framework, this study aime to detect localized deformation and change in the summit area that has occurred concomitantly with the dome growth and explosion reported. The methodology was focused on two sets of data, one LiDAR-based dataset of 2012 and one UAV-dataset of 2014. The results show that during the period 2012-2014, the crater walls are 100 m to 120 m high above the crater floor at its maximum (North to East-South-East sector), while the West and North sector presents a topographic range of 40 to 80 m. During the period 2012 – 2014, the evolution of the crater rim around the dome is generally stable (no large collapse). The opening of a new vent on the surface of the dome has displaced an equivalent volume of 2.04 E+04 m3 corresponding to a maximum -9 m (+/- 0.9 m) vertically. This concludes that during the period 2012 – 2014 when the dome of Merapi experienced phreatic or phreatomagmatic explosions, the topography around the dome rose. This rise does not seem to be related to large wall collapses, and it is likely that modification in the subsurface have triggered those changes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0186.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: urban rainstorm disasters; risk assessment; information diffusion method (IDM); variable fuzzy sets (VFS); Jiangsu province
Online: 16 April 2019 (12:19:34 CEST)
A new model for risk assessment of urban rainstorm disasters, based on information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-VFS) was proposed. In addition, an integrated index system of urban rainstorm risk was established. In the proposed model, IDM was employed to calculate the classification standards of urban rainstorm risk levels, then the VFS was adopted to assess the dangerousness, sensitivity, vulnerability and comprehensive risk of urban rainstorm disasters. In the present study, the urban rainstorm risk of Jiangsu province was evaluated with the proposed model. The results show that Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou have higher dangerousness, due to sustained rainfall and strong rainfall intensity in short duration; Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing have higher sensitivity because of lower disaster resistance ability; and Wuxi and Suzhou have higher vulnerability because these cities have higher potential losses in face of urban rainstorm disasters. The comprehensive risk zoning map of urban rainstorm shows apparent regional characteristics: the northwestern cities have lower risk than the southern cities. Moreover, most cities of the Jiangsu province are of the moderate urban rainstorm risk level. The results are consistent with the actual situation of Jiangsu province, and the study can provide some decision-making references for the urban rainstorm management.
Subject: Life Sciences, Molecular Biology Keywords: body shape index; body roundness index; metabolic risk factors; Southern China adults
Online: 24 May 2020 (16:44:12 CEST)
This purpose was to compare the ability of body shape index (ABSI) and body roundness index (BRI) with waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and body adiposity index (BAI) to predict metabolic risk. The cross-sectional study was conducted in 17,360 Chinese subjects (were aged 18-95 years old) who escaped cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes. Biochemical and anthropometric variables were measured by trained staff. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and optimal cutoff values of obesity indices were recruited to compare the predictive ability for metabolic risk factors. The mean age of subjects was 53.7(13.1) years, 41.6 % were males. Within young group (<60 years), the areas under the curve (AUC) demonstrated that WC, BMI, WHR, WHtR and BRI were able to similarly predict high metabolic risk in males (0.74 vs. 0.74 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.73) and in females (0.73 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.71 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.73), while the approximate predictive ability were only acquired in males (0.73 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.73 vs. 0.73) within elder group (≥60 years). The optimal cut-off values of BRI for high metabolic risk were calculated in males (<60 y: 3.49 vs. ≥60 y: 3.46) and females (<60 y: 3.47 vs. ≥60 y: 3.60). Meanwhile, BRI displayed a strong prediction to elevated BP and elevated TG in males (AUC = 0.64; AUC = 0.70) and to elevated BP, elevated TG and elevated SUA in females (AUC = 0.67; AUC = 0.69; AUC =0.70). BRI was able to similarly predict high metabolic risk compared to WC, BMI, WHR, WHtR and BAI, while ABSI was not. Moreover, BRI revealed specific predictive ability for elevated BP, elevated TG and elevated SUA.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0072.v1
Online: 6 August 2019 (09:03:58 CEST)
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a critical factor for enhancing the soil erosion risk and land degradation process in the Wabi Shebelle Basin. Up-to-date spatial and statistical data on basin-wide erosion rates can provide an important basis for planning and conservation of soil and water ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to examine the magnitude of LULCC and consequent changes in the spatial extent of soil erosion risk, and identify priority areas for Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) in the Erer Sub-Basin, Wabi Shebelle Basin, Ethiopia. The soil loss rates were estimated using an empirical prediction model of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) outlined in the ArcGIS environment. The estimated total annual actual soil loss at the sub-basin level was 1.01 million tons in 2000 and 1.52 million tons in 2018 with a mean erosion rate of 75.85 t ha–1 y–1 and 107.07 t ha–1 y–1, respectively. The most extensive soil loss rates were estimated in croplands and bare land cover, with a mean soil loss rate of 37.60 t ha–1 y–1 and 15.78 t ha−1 y−1, respectively. The soil erosion risk has increased by 18.28% of the total area, and decreased by 15.93%, showing that the overall soil erosion situation is worsening in the study area. We determined SWC priority areas using the Multi-Criteria Decision Rule (MCDR) approach, indicates that the top three levels identified for intense SWC account for about 2.50%, 2.38%, and 2.14%, respectively. These priority levels are typically situated along the steep slopes in Babile, Fedis, Fik, Gursum, Gola Oda, Haramaya, Jarso, and Kombolcha districts that need emergency SWC measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0202.v1
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: groundwater salinization; soil salinization; salinization risk assessment; climate analysis; water balance; salinity balance; salt leaching; processing tomato; crop yield decrease.
Online: 11 September 2018 (15:29:31 CEST)
Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0261.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: Risk management; Laos; livelihood; swidden; upland rice; rice bank; NTFPs; market economy; livestock
Online: 28 January 2018 (16:32:52 CET)
In areas with strongly seasonal climates, local people often use complex strategies to manage agricultural production shortages, including diverse activities such as hunting, selling and consuming non-agricultural products, and wage labor. We surveyed all the households in a village in northern Laos to evaluate how such livelihood activities varied during years with differing agricultural production conditions. We compared two years with normal rice production conditions (2010, 2012) and one year with a severe rice shortage (2011) due to a rodent outbreak. Earning wages inside and outside the village was the most important activity for mitigating rice shortages, followed by selling livestock and using/selling non-timber forest products. Villagers also borrowed rice from a village rice bank. Most cash income was earned from selling rice. We concluded that a balance of traditional risk management activities under the swidden system (e.g., raising livestock) with the more recent rice bank system and wages from the market economy will be critical for the sustainable development of mountain villages in northern Laos. Permanent crops and monocultures tend to make local livelihoods more dependent on a single crop, but maintaining the traditional swidden system will help local people to manage agricultural production shortages.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social representations; natural hazard risk; Alpine hazards; risk communication; risk management; qualitative risk research;
Online: 16 November 2018 (13:35:01 CET)
The term “risk” is connoted with divergent meanings in natural hazard risk research and the practice of risk management. Whilst the technical definition is accurately defined, in practice, the term “risk” is often synonymously used with “danger”. Considering this divergence as a deficiency, risk communication often aims to correct laypersons’ understanding. We suggest in reference to Breakwell (2001) to treat the variety of meanings as a resource for risk communication strategies instead. However, there is no investigation so far, of what laypersons’ meanings of risk actually comprise. To address this gap, we examine the meanings of risk applying a social representations approach (Moscovici, 2001) in a qualitative case study design. Results of the study among inhabitants of Swiss mountain villages show that differences in meanings were found according to hazard experience and community size. We found commonly shared core representations, and single peripheral ones. We conclude with suggestions on how to make usage of the knowledge on SR in risk communication.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0128.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: large scale systems; risk assessment; risk management techniques; risk mitigation
Online: 10 December 2019 (07:14:12 CET)
Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0551.v1
Subject: Biology, Ecology Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, biological invasions, regulations, policy, risk management
Online: 22 November 2018 (14:44:57 CET)
This report presents a framework for analysing the risk of alien taxa under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, and the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of 2014. While the report was initially designed to meet a specific South Africa need, the risk analysis processes developed can, we believe, be transferred to any specified geographic region. In outlining a series of questions related to a taxon’s likelihood of invasion and the consequences thereof, i.e. the potential impacts, the report provides a structure for collating data relevant to the process of listing taxa as well as a process for developing recommendations that is both mathematically sound, transparent, and that explicitly takes uncertainty into account. The framework is based on collating information according to international standards in biological invasions (specifically the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa Scheme, the CBD's scheme for classifying invasion pathways, and the Unified Framework for Biological Invasions proposed by Blackburn et al. 2011). The risk analysis framework is currently being implemented in South Africa in an effort to underpin national regulatory lists of invasive species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0030.v1
Subject: Arts & Humanities, Architecture And Design Keywords: green building; risk management; risk factors, risk mitigation measures; architect
Online: 2 May 2018 (16:55:58 CEST)
The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0104.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: cyber risk; Internet of Things; cyber risk impact assessment; cyber risk estimation; cyber risk insurance
Online: 8 March 2019 (08:50:49 CET)
In this paper we present an understanding of cyber risks in the Internet of Things (IoT), we explain why it is important to understand what IoT cyber risks are and how we can use risk assessment and risk management approaches to deal with these challenges. We introduce the most effective ways of doing Risk assessment and Risk Management of IoT risk. As part of our research, we also developed methodologies to assess and manage risk in this emerging environment. This paper will take you through our research and we will explain: what we mean by the IoT; what we mean by risk and risk in the IoT; why risk assessment and risk management are important; the IoT risk management for incident response and recovery; what open questions on IoT risk assessment and risk management remain.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0119.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Credit Risk Testing; Evaluation of Credit Risk; Credit Risk Management; Organizational Management
Online: 7 October 2021 (13:44:12 CEST)
The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0346.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: environmental health; risk communication; risk management; particulate matter; risk analysis; mass event
Online: 27 April 2018 (05:15:54 CEST)
Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m3 to 580 µg/m3, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m3 at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO2 pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0041.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: uncertainty management; risk management; safety; ISO 31000:2009; ISO 31010:2009; risk management framework; risk-sentience; safety culture; risk culture; enterprise risk management
Online: 19 June 2018 (12:58:28 CEST)
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0134.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: risk; resilience; pandemic; prioritization; risk management; Arctic
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:40:38 CEST)
The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0422.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: transformation; flood risk reduction; Jakarta; risk governance
Online: 29 May 2018 (09:32:27 CEST)
Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0109.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Organizational Economics & Management Keywords: Information Technology, Risk Primary Market, Secondary Market Risk, Non-Financial Risks, Risk Management
Online: 11 January 2019 (10:45:25 CET)
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0332.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social risk; risk management; urban renewal; collectivism; China
Online: 18 August 2022 (07:41:22 CEST)
Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0202.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Seismic vulnerability; Urban areas; Objective risk; Perceived risk
Online: 14 July 2022 (03:25:12 CEST)
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0169.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset allocation; risk factor; risk exposure; macro-factor
Online: 12 May 2022 (10:44:13 CEST)
Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0218.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geology Keywords: risk perception; geo-hydrological risk; education; Southern Italy
Online: 26 March 2018 (14:17:57 CEST)
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0047.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: cancer risk; risk assessment; volcanic soils; Santiago Island
Online: 14 August 2017 (09:11:20 CEST)
The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0109.v2
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Cyber risk; Internet of Things cyber risk; Digital Economy Risk Assessment; Economic Impact Assessment.
Online: 9 April 2019 (12:26:13 CEST)
We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: cardiovascular risk assessment; postmenopausal women; cardiovascular risk factors; emerging risk factors; hormone replacement therapy
Online: 8 June 2018 (12:46:31 CEST)
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0110.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: IoT Cyber Risk, IoT risk analysis, IoT cyber insurance, IoT MicroMort, Cyber Value-at-Risk
Online: 8 March 2019 (15:24:59 CET)
This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0091.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: risk prediction; prediction models; risk of bias; PROBAST; melanoma
Online: 7 May 2022 (03:50:41 CEST)
Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0132.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: risk perception; coronavirus; covid-19; risk communication; global health
Online: 7 May 2020 (15:12:32 CEST)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0132.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: fall risk assessment; risk of falling; force platforms; inertial sensors.
Online: 12 August 2016 (09:32:28 CEST)
Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.
Subject: Keywords: Mitigation; Risk Reduction; Global Catastrophic Biological Risk; Epidemics; Disease X; Literature Review; Pandemics; Value of Information; Existential Risk
Online: 28 February 2020 (12:32:33 CET)
There are potentially promising mitigation activities for epidemic and pandemic scenarios that are not currently the subject of significant research effort. Large epidemics and pandemics pose risks that are important to mitigate, even if the likelihood of the events is low and uncertain. While some efforts are the subject of extensive funding and consideration, other approaches are neglected. Here, we consider such neglected interventions which could significantly reduce the impact of such an epidemic or large-scale pandemic. These are identified via a narrative literature review of extant literature reviews and overviews of mitigations in epidemic and pandemic situations, followed by consideration of the economic value of information of further study of heretofore neglected interventions and approaches.Based on that analysis, we considered several classes of mitigations, and conducted more exploratory reviews of each. Those discussed include mitigations for (1) reducing transmission, such as personal protective equipment and encouraging improved hygiene, (2) reducing exposure by changing norms and targeted changes for high-risk or critical professions and activities, (3) reducing impact for those infected, and (4) increasing large scale resilience using disaster and infrastructure continuity planning.Some proposed mitigations are found to be of low marginal value. Other mitigations are likely to be valuable, but the concepts or applications are underdeveloped. In those cases, further research, resources, or preparation are valuable for mitigating both routine and extreme disease outbreak events. Still more areas of research are identified as having uncertain value based on specific but resolvable uncertainties. In both of the latter cases, there is no guarantee that mitigations identified as worthy of further consideration will be valuable, but the argument for further research is clear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0011.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Global risk factors; Credit Default Swaps; Sovereign credit risk; Copulas approach
Online: 1 November 2021 (11:50:02 CET)
This study examined the tail dependency structure of sovereign credit risk and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using copulas approach, which is known for its ability to provide the “true” tail correlation based on the correct marginal distribution. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events, with Brazil having the highest co-dependency followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with sovereign CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa while exchange rate risk exhibits very small co-dependence with sovereign CDS spreads under extreme market conditions dominated by tail events. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s sovereign CDS spreads while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence to CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia where exchange rate risk is largely dominant. These results suggest that BRICS policymakers might consider financial sector regulations that mitigate risks spill-over such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0066.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: cyber physical systems; cybercrime; risk mitigation; risk management; industrial control systems
Online: 5 April 2018 (06:10:06 CEST)
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) is the integration of computation and physical process that makes a complete system such as the physical components, networked systems, embedded computers and software and linking together of devices and sensors for information sharing. Cyber Physical Systems are Smart Systems that comprises of the merging and integration of Industry Control Systems, Critical Infrastructures, Internet of Things (IoT) and Embedded Systems. Major industries such as the Chemical and Industrial Plants, Aviation Systems, National Grid, the Stock Exchange, Military Systems, and others depends heavily on these Cyber Physical Systems for financial and economic growth. The benefits of CPS nationally and globally are in the areas of Manufacturing, Energy, Transport, Healthcare and Communication. Cyber Physical Systems incorporates Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements on network infrastructures to provide interactive systems. However, these three key components the Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements may have inherent threats and vulnerabilities on them that may run the risk of being compromise, exploited, attacked or hacked. Cybercriminals in their quest to bring down these systems and may cause disruption of services either for fame, revenge, political motive, economic war, cyber terrorism and cyber war. The study seeks to review the risks that are associated with these three key components Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements. The study considered four main risk mitigation goals for this purpose, and these are Business Value, Organizational Requirements, Threat Agent and Impact based on the review results. We used Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these goals that contributes to developing cybercrime and rich in CPS. For the results, the prioritized goals are then used to assess the risks using a semi-quantitative approach to determine the net threat level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0035.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: inflation risk; investment returns; life annuity; longevity risk; post-retirement benefits
Online: 7 December 2016 (10:27:23 CET)
Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0028.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: VOC; technological risk; exposure to risks; DRI; risk mapping; SIG; BTEX
Online: 13 September 2016 (03:42:52 CEST)
The population’s mobility in urban areas is a necessary variable in the modeling of risk scenarios caused by atmospheric contamination. The inclusion of this concept makes static models more dynamic while considering people within a city to be an entity with complex mobility processes. We propose a conceptual and methodological tool to make the representation of the social, economic and territorial components, as well as the patterns in the population´s mobility to delimitate risk areas for human health by exposure of contaminants. In the volatile organic compounds (VOC), benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene and xylene (BTEX) are amongst the most dominant substances in fugitive vapor emissions in gas stations (GS). In urban areas, the exposure to BTEX by residential proximity and proximity to other facilities, which cause intra-urban agglomeration, can impact and affect human health. This model seeks to facilitate the focalization, identification and prioritization of risk areas by BTEX environmental contamination. This article goes beyond de conceptual framework. It suggests methodological and instrumental aspects to be applied in other cities. The government agencies must consider these results when establishing rules, permissions and procedures to reduce environmental pollution for managing the risk in a complex urban environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0197.v1
Subject: Engineering, Construction Keywords: construction; safety; risk; hazard; critical control risk management; critical control; fatality prevention
Online: 13 July 2022 (09:18:21 CEST)
Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0023.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: perturbation expansion; Green’s function; model risk; model uncertainty; credit derivatives; CVA; correlation risk
Online: 4 January 2018 (03:24:24 CET)
We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0071.v1
Online: 6 January 2022 (10:35:42 CET)
The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0713.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: combinatorics, risk analysis, decision analysis.
Online: 27 April 2021 (12:33:23 CEST)
Let us assume that defence mechanisms are so strong that the average outcome of a hacking attack is unsuccessful. How to calculate the costs arising from false positives and false negatives in intruder detection? Is it better for the hacker to make fewer but more effective attacks rather than several but less effective attacks? How to calculate the difference between these alternative strategies?
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0410.v1
Online: 31 December 2019 (11:14:44 CET)
In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0224.v1
Online: 17 April 2018 (11:17:49 CEST)
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work we create a model that modifies the BCBS's five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and applies these measures of systemic stress to governments. The original application of the model is to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0584.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: Parkinson’s disease; parkinsonism; LRRK2; neuropathology; modifier; genetics; GWAS; environmental risk factors; polygenic risk score
Online: 23 December 2020 (10:49:22 CET)
Missense mutations in the LRRK2 gene were first identified as a pathogenic cause of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in 2004. Soon thereafter, a founder mutation in LRRK2, p.Gly2019Ser (rs34637584), was described, and it is now estimated that there are approximately 100,000 people worldwide that carry this risk variant. While the clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism has been largely indistinguishable from sporadic PD, disease penetrance and age at onset can be quite variable. In addition, its neuropathological features span a wide range from nigrostriatal loss with Lewy body pathology, lack thereof, or atypical neuropathology including a large proportion of cases with concomitant Alzheimer’s pathology, hailing LRRK2 parkinsonism as the "Rosetta stone" of parkinsonian disorders. These differences may result from interactions between LRRK2 mutant protein and other proteins or environmental factors that modify LRRK2 function, and thereby influence pathobiology. This review explores how potential genetic and biochemical modifiers of LRRK2 function may contribute to the onset and clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism. We review, which genetic modifiers of LRRK2 influence clinical symptoms, age at onset, and penetrance, what LRRK2 mutations are associated with pleomorphic LRRK2 neuropathology, and which environmental modifiers can augment LRRK2 mutant pathophysiology. Understanding how LRRK2 function is influenced and modulated by other interactors and environmental factors –either increasing toxicity or providing resilience- will inform targeted therapeutic development in the years to come. This will allow developing disease-modifying therapies for PD and LRRK2-related neurodegeneration.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0263.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: utility; uncertainty; risk averse; wellness output; treatment inputs; coronavirus; psychological risk attitude; dynamic interactions
Online: 16 May 2020 (15:42:42 CEST)
A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0038.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset pricing; credit risk modeling; unilateral; bilateral; multilateral credit risk; collateralization; comvariance; comrelation; correlation
Online: 3 October 2019 (04:49:57 CEST)
This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: risk measure; value at risk; tail conditional expectation; expected shortfall; bank capital; Basel accords
Online: 16 April 2019 (10:48:48 CEST)
The use of risk measures such as the Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE) is required by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in determining a bank’s risk profile. However, both measures can be shown to have shortcomings in the information that they provide to regulators and investors. In this paper we present an introduction to risk measure calculations before demonstrating the weaknesses of these measures. Through the exploration of specific cases we show how familiar yet differing risk profiles have identical values for combinations of these measures. From this evidence we recommend that a sequence of several risk measures should be used to give a more accurate representation of the risk contained on banking balance sheet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0215.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: street dust; PAHs; source evaluation; incremental lifetime cancer risk; cancer risk assessment; coastal city
Online: 10 October 2018 (10:49:21 CEST)
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust pose a serious problem threatening both environment and human health. Street dust were collected from five different land use patterns (traffic areas TRA, urban area URA, residential areas REA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SUA) in a Saudi coastal city, Jeddah, and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. This study aimed to investigate the status, profile, sources of PAHs and estimate their human health risk. The results revealed an average concentration of total PAHs of 3320 ng/g in street dust of Jeddah and 223 ng/g in RUA dust. PAHs with high molecular weight represented 83.38% of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah, while the carcinogenic PAH compounds accounted 57.84%. The highest average concentration of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah was found in TRA (4980 ng/g) and the lowest in REA (1660 ng/g). PAHs ratios indicated that the principal source of PAHs in street dust of Jeddah is pyrogenic, mainly traffic emission. Benzo(a)anthracene/ chrysene (BaA/CHR) ratio suggests that PAHs in street dusts of Jeddah come mainly from emission of local sources, while PAHs in RUA might be transported from the surrounding urban areas. The estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with exposure to PAHs in street dusts indicated that both dermal contact and ingestion pathways are major contributed to cancer risk for both children and adults. Based on BaPequivalence concentrations of total PAHs, ILCRIngestion, ILCRdermal and cancer risk values for children and adults exposed to PAHs in street dust of different areas in Jeddah were found between 10−6 and 10−4, indicating potential risk. The sequence of cancer risk was TRA > URA > MCRA > SUA > REA. Only exposure to BaP and DBA compounds had potential risk for both children and adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0080.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Internet of Things; Micro Mart model; Goal-Oriented Approach; transformation roadmap; Cyber risk regulations; empirical analysis; cyber risk self-assessment; cyber risk target state
Online: 6 March 2019 (11:47:04 CET)
The Internet-of-Things (IoT) enables enterprises to obtain profits from data but triggers data protection questions and new types of cyber risk. Cyber risk regulations for the IoT however do not exist. The IoT risk is not included in the cyber security assessment standards, hence, often not visible to cyber security experts. This is concerning, because companies integrating IoT devices and services need to perform a self-assessment of its IoT cyber security posture. The outcome of such self-assessment needs to define a current and target state, prior to creating a transformation roadmap outlining tasks to achieve the stated target state. In this article, a comparative empirical analysis is performed of multiple cyber risk assessment approaches, to define a high-level potential target state for company integrating IoT devices and/or services. Defining a high-level potential target state represent is followed by a high-level transformation roadmap, describing how company can achieve their target state, based on their current state. The transformation roadmap is used to adapt IoT risk impact assessment with a Goal-Oriented Approach and the Internet of Things Micro Mart model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccinations; vaccine doses; pre-existing condition; high risk; low risk
Online: 26 April 2021 (11:00:59 CEST)
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0184.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: flood disaster risk; vulnerability to flood disaster risk; arc-geographical information system (arcgis); geo-mapping
Online: 15 November 2019 (16:54:51 CET)
Flood is identified as one of the major disasters in the world; it destroys both human and properties across the world, where lives are lost, properties, public infrastructure, farmlands and agricultural produce with farm crops carted away as a result of flood disaster. Studies revealed that the flood in itself is not the danger, but the level of human vulnerability to flooding disaster risk, which enhances its destructive capabilities. However, based on the challenges poses by flood disaster risk, this research identifies Ala river in Akure as a potential cause of flood, considering its location and other human activities around the river. Therefore, the research used Ala-river a case study to identify and mapped out areas susceptible to flood disaster risk. The research made use of both literature review and conducted goe-data gathering with the application GIS-computer database to retrieve georeferencing relevant data from the fieldwork in the study area of Ala-river basin to mapped out locations vulnerable to achieve the research aim. The research adopted a Geo-mapping of the vulnerable area to Ala-River basin using arc-GIS tool in combination with other software such as IKONAS and OLI (Operation Land Imager) for the production of the study area imagery, ER-ITERIM was used for the collection of rainfall data and FAO was applied for digital soil mapping. These applications produced; the land use/land cover map, digital elevation map, buffer map using 30 meters setback, annual rainfall map, soil types map, vulnerability map and soil textural table for the study area. Analysis of the produced and generated maps shows 316 buildings vulnerability to flood disaster risk; the soil texture and types, and alternative use to which the soil types can be useful. The research recommends that demolition of the identified 316 buildings prone to flood disaster and compliance of building construction to 30 meters setback by developers. Others are the conversion of the future land setback for urban agricultural purposes and preservation of water retention areas for agricultural activities during the dry season among others. The study concludes that relevant government agencies in the State and in particular in Akure South Local Government should ensure prompt compliance and implementation of the recommendations to avoid potential flood disaster risks.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0135.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Sporadic Parkinson’s disease. Drosophila, genetic risk factor, environmental risk factor,Serendipity, dopamine, neurodegeneration, animal model
Online: 7 September 2018 (12:40:50 CEST)
Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common cause of movement disorder characterized by the progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. It is increasingly recognized as a complex group of disorders presenting widely heterogenous symptoms and pathology. Except for the rare monogenic forms, the majority of the PD cases result from an interaction between multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. The search for these risk factors and the development of preclinical animal models are in progress hand in hand, providing mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of PD. This review summarizes the studies that capitalize on modeling sporadic (i.e. non-familial) PD using Drosophila melanogaster and discuss their methodology, new findings and future perspective.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0566.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: Risk; resettlement; governmentality; development; river communities
Online: 31 January 2023 (02:36:54 CET)
Based on ten months of ethnographic fieldwork in marginal, low-income, Belenino river communities located in Iquitos, a fluvial city in the Amazon basin. By using ethnographic methods and semi-structured interviews, this article traces how risk is associated with life in Belenino communities and how the identity of Beleninos and the river at the heart of a resettlement project are politically constructed rather than empirically constructed. In this case study of resettlement, understandings of risk and development by Belenino river communities and the government both conflicted and overlapped, I identified three elements that help to shape the concept of risk in both groups that highlight the disjunctive meanings provided by culture and demonstrate the complexity of the analysis of both populations. Finally, by putting the state’s weak presence after a developmental project failure under ethnographic approximation, the article reveals an imbalance in validity and power in terms of the perspectives of the river and Belen.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0405.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Behavioral Neuroscience Keywords: Suicide; risk factor; polymorphism; CYP46A1; depression.
Online: 23 January 2023 (09:37:54 CET)
Background: Currently, completed suicide, suicide ideation, suicide behavior, and suicide attempts are major public health problems worldwide. Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is one of the most common mental disorders associated with an increased risk of suicide. Since the relationship between suicide and cholesterol levels is still controversial, in this study, we explore the association between SNPs rs754203 and rs4900442 of CYP46A1 with suicide risk in Mexican patients with major depressive disorder. Methods: We evaluated 188 unrelated suicide completers and compared them to 144 non-suicidal individuals (controls) and 126 MDD patients. Genotypes were analyzed using the Real Time-polymerase chain reaction method and two allele-specific probes to detect specific SNP targets. A chi-square test was used to identify a possible risk genotype or allele type for suicide. Results: Statistical analysis showed significant differences between completed suicide and controls in their allelic and genotypic frequencies in rs754203 SNP. The genotype G/G of CYP46A1 rs754203 was significantly associated with suicide. Also, the G allele was associated with an increased risk of suicide (OR= 1.370, 95% CI= 1.002-1.873). No differences in either genotype distribution or allele frequencies of CYP46A1 rs4900442 were observed. Conclusions: The results of the current study report the first association between G allele carriers (A/G + G/G) of rs754203 and increased risk for suicide, especially in males.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0277.v1
Online: 16 January 2023 (08:36:33 CET)
Human perception of nature and God have always been inextricably linked. In order to understand nature and its inherent processes, including various natural hazards, the reasons for their origin were often attributed to God's will, suffering for sin and the similar. Fear of material and human losses prompted a man to pray and offer sacrifices/gifts and other rituals to appease the "wrath of the gods". The progress of civilization and technology has not alleviated the destruction and trauma that natural disasters inflict on all aspects of social life. A major obstacle to this is the exponential population growth in vulnerable areas. The frequency of natural disasters and the fatalistic attitudes that limit the effective fight against them have motivated religious communities and individuals to cooperate with international and international organizations and institutions to reduce the risk of local disasters. Believers thus receive the necessary psychological and financial assistance and support from religious communities during all phases of disaster management. Therefore, the subject of this paper is a comprehensive examination relationship between the degree of religiosity of the population and how this connection impacts the policy of reducing disaster risk. The aim of the research is to scientifically describe the nature of the relationship between the degree of religiosity of citizens and different segments of disaster risk reduction.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0022.v2
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: monkeypox; risk; elimination; epidemiology; outbreak; prediction
Online: 14 November 2022 (09:43:24 CET)
Human monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men outside Africa) and the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection with monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios for the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0174.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Clinical Psychology Keywords: apolipoprotein; suicide; biomarker; psychiatry; risk factor
Online: 9 August 2022 (05:10:32 CEST)
Every year around 800 000 people commit suicide, this represents one death every 40 seconds. In the search for possible biological biomarkers associated with suicide and/or psychiatric disorders, serum cholesterol levels have been extensively explored. Several studies have indicated that cholesterol and associated proteins, especially apolipoproteins (Apos), may play an important role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and susceptibility of suicide. Here, we describe the current knowledge and findings in the relationship between apolipoproteins and suicide.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0005.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Durability; Reinforced concrete; Automated visualization; Risk
Online: 1 August 2022 (05:09:38 CEST)
Reinforced Concrete (RC) durability is a crucial feature to estimate the long-term quality and structural performance. Since life span estimation is vital for maintenance resource planning, a degradation model of RC component extracts by updating the status of structures and trending the components’ state over time in terms of durability. Surface erosion, spalling, cracks, and other expose defects on the RC component lead to increase factors adversely affecting concrete durability in structures. This research presents an approach based on automated visualization for extracting quantitative indexes beside or instead of visual inspection without subjective interspersion of humans or probable human errors during the inspection. The durability index (D_i) will extract based on damage probability and its growth in order to extract the severity of failure and risk. Measurement operation by automated software has been double-checked by manual measurement tools, and data will verify randomly in this method. The result shows damage growth in this load-bearing component by 24 percentages over the definite time. According to degradation models, it shows this component may pass the relative thresholds as a limit state of operation to fail. This significant difference between expected time and designing time determines the D_i equal to 5 out of 10.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0343.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: resilience; communication; systemic risk; systemic recovery
Online: 25 March 2022 (09:02:49 CET)
This work reviews three frameworks for responding to economic disruption: risk mitigation, systemic recovery, and economic resilience. Specifically, by reviewing extant literature in economics, communication, and other disciplines, we argue that current approaches to understanding resilience in economics largely fail to address ongoing and emergent disruptions to the economic and social world. In response to these issues, we work to synthesize economic frameworks and the communication theory of resilience to forward a new way of examining the overlapping questions of economic resilience related to metatheoretical commitments, analytic contexts, and implications for theory, method, and practice.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0148.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Pneumonic plague; transmission; risk; frequency; epidemic
Online: 9 December 2021 (10:32:40 CET)
Pneumonic plague outbreaks are relatively infrequent in modern times but in the early part of the 20th century, they were commonplace including several well-documented epidemics responsible for the deaths of thousands. The transmissibility of this disease seems to be discontinuous since in some outbreaks few transmissions occur, while in others, the progression of the epidemic is explosive. Modern epidemiological studies explain that transmissibility within populations is heterogenous with relatively few subjects likely to be responsible for most transmissions and that ‘super spreading events’, particularly at the start of an outbreak, can lead to a rapid expansion of cases. These findings concur with outbreaks observed in real-world situations. It is often reported that pneumonic plague is rare and not easily transmitted but this view could lead to unnecessary complacency since future risks such as the spontaneous incidence of anti-microbial strains, climate change leading to a disruption of natural cycles within plague foci and use of plague as a bioweapon cannot be discounted. Carers and first responders are vulnerable, particularly in poorer countries where access to medicines may be limited, out-breaks occur in inaccessible areas or where there is a lack of surveillance due to a paucity of funds.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1
Online: 27 October 2021 (10:53:56 CEST)
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0178.v1
Online: 6 April 2021 (13:30:25 CEST)
Background Pregnancy is a process of maturity for women that requires adaptation to the changes in their new roles. Adjustment to a new role is not easy, especially if the pregnancy is accompanied by risks, so it is necessary to get treatment to minimize complications. Dyad models that optimize husband or family support are very important to prevent the risk of complications and adapt mothers to their new roles. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the dyad model on high-risk pregnancies. The method used with a literature review is through the collection of articles from Scopus, ebsco, ProQuest and PubMed. The results obtained were articles from Scopus 9, Ebsco 107, PubMed 214 and ProQuest 85 which carried out identification, screening and eligibility for 25 articles. Overall results mention. Journals are categorized into 4 groups, Dyad Model and social support, high-risk pregnancy, maternal role and Self Efficacy. Conclusion, there is an effect of the dyad model on care for high-risk pregnancies.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0679.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Syncope; Emergency Department; Diagnosis; Risk stratification
Online: 29 March 2021 (10:44:36 CEST)
Background and Objectives: Overuse and inappropriate use of testing and hospital admission are common in syncope evaluation and management. Though guidelines are available to optimize syncope care, study suggested that the current clinical guidelines have not significantly impacted resource utilization surrounding emergency department (ED) evaluation of syncope. Matching implementation strategies to barriers and facilitators and tailoring strategies to local context hold significant promise for a successful implementation of clinical practice guideline (CPG). Our team applied implementation science principles to develop a stakeholder-based implementation strategy. Methods and Materials: We partnered with patients, family caregivers, frontline clinicians and staff, and health system administrators at four health systems to conduct quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews for context assessment. The identification of implementation strategies was done by applying the CFIR-ERIC Implementation Strategy Matching Tool and soliciting stakeholders’ inputs. We then co-designed with patients and frontline teams, developed and tested specific strategies. Results: 114 clinicians completed surveys and 32 clinicians and stake-holders participated in interviews. Results from the surveys and interview indicated low awareness of syncope guidelines, and communication challenges with patients, lack of CPG protocol integration into ED workflows, and organizational process to change were recognized as major barriers. Thirty-one patients and their family caregivers participated in interviews and ex-pressed their expectations: clarity regarding their diagnosis, context surrounding care plan and diagnostic testing, and a desire to feel cared about. After identifying change methods to address those barriers, the multilevel, multicomponent implementation strategy, MISSION, included pa-tient educational materials, mentored implementation, academic detailing, Syncope Optimal Care Pathway and corresponding Mobile App, and Lean quality improvement methods. The pilot of MISSION demonstrated feasibility, acceptability and initial success on appropriate testing. Con-clusions: Effect multifaceted implementation strategies that target individuals, teams, and healthcare systems can be employed to plan successful implementation and promote adherence to syncope CPGs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0551.v1
Online: 27 January 2021 (10:24:09 CET)
The data for the study on the epidemiology of bovine mastitis were collected fromNovember 2015 to February 2016 to investigate the prevalence of mastitis in administrative towns of three selected districts of Arsi zone, Oromia Regional State, namely Iteya, Sagure, and Asella, Ethiopia; and to analyze the association between the risk factors and mastitis occurrence. Sample cows were selected and examined for clinical mastitis and at the same time, milk samples were evaluated both clinically and using the California Mastitis Test (CMT). Some parameters of the cows which have biological relation with this disease together with other potential risk factors were collected along with primary data collection. The analysis of the primary data showed that overall mastitis prevalence in the locations covered by the study was 28.6% of which 83.3% was subclinical, while 16.7% were clinical mastitis cases. Analysis related to the investigation of the existence of an association between risk factors and mastitis revealed that there was a significant association between the occurrence of mastitis and two of the risk factors evaluated, breed and age of the cow. The other risk factors investigated (i.e. parity, location, and lactation stage had no significant association with mastitis occurrence). Since mastitis is a complex disease that results from the interaction of different factors, it may be difficult to limit it to only some given factors. Environment and management factors and their combination may also have an additional impact on the epidemiology of the disease. A prevalence with the indicated magnitude together with the added effect of a lower level of awareness of the society about milk-associated zoonoses implies that this disease causes significant public health problems. In addition, mastitis may cause silent economic loss through unnoticed production loss along with reduced milk yield from subclinical and clinical (e.g. blind teats) cases. Due to a lack of awareness about mastitis and/or negligence, farmers in all corners of the country are suffering from economic and public health problems imposed by mastitis. This lack of awareness about mastitis-associated problems and/or negligence could be a possible reason for the use of raw milk which is a common scenario particularly in pastoral areas and the selling of adulterated milk which is becoming increasingly practiced in Ethiopia which is also true in these specific localities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0371.v1
Online: 15 December 2020 (10:35:17 CET)
Abstract: The study aimed to determine the factors associated with the avoidance of dental preventive care in adolescents and their parents in the framework of The Youth and Parents Risk Factor Behavior Survey in Slovakia has been initiated during the years 2015/2016. The data were collected using two separate standardized questionnaires: (i) the questionnaire for adolescents (n=515) and (ii) the questionnaire for parents (n=681). The study group consisted of 57 adolescents (54.4% males) who did not visit the dentist for preventive care in the previous year. The control group consisted of 458 adolescents (35.8% males) who visited a dentist for preventive care at least once in the previous year. A significantly higher number of males (54.4%), older adolescents (21.4%) were not visiting dental preventive care regularly. Incomplete family (56.1%), stressful situations at home (17.5%), and feeling unwell were observed as the factors contributing to the avoidance of dental preventive care. More than 34.5% of adolescents were not visiting either dental preventive care but also pediatric preventive care (AOR=5.14; 95%CI=2.40, 10.99). Divorced mothers and mothers with household income lower than 900 € had significantly higher dental care avoidance in their children. A significantly higher percentage of fathers from the exposed group were not visiting dental preventive care regularly (47.8%; p< .05). The results of the study can be used as an educational intervention steps focusing on the influence of parental and adolescent behavior in dental preventive care.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0391.v3
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; risk analysis; heuristic; probability; ascertainment; vaccination
Online: 12 January 2021 (12:26:41 CET)
This paper provides a framework for the assessment of household-level risk, incorporating both a individual social risk perspective and a location-based perspective. We use this framework as a heuristic to explore the effect of social reintegration choices individuals face, which are not be addressed by current policies. For example, we explore how integrating extended family households during COVID-19 without social distancing may affect household and community risk. The goal is to aid individual decision makers, who are seeking to maintain quality-of-life while navigating local policy, with nuance relating to location-specific behavior and disease prevalence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0433.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: COVID 19; Risk Zone; Empirical parameters
Online: 26 May 2020 (13:21:57 CEST)
All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020. For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis. Maximum number of day’s data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0280.v1
Online: 25 September 2019 (09:09:06 CEST)
This paper models and estimates the volatility of nonfinancial, innovative and hi-tech focused stock index, the Nasdaq-100, using univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We employ GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH using daily data over the period January 4, 2000 through March 19, 2019. We find that the volatility shocks on the index returns are quite persistent. Furthermore, our findings show that the index has leverage effect, and the impact of shocks is asymmetric, whereby the impacts of negative shocks on volatility are higher than those of positive shocks of the same magnitude.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0210.v1
Online: 21 February 2019 (13:30:48 CET)
Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0135.v1
Online: 14 February 2019 (11:30:03 CET)
Based on a rich data set of recoveries donated by a debt collection business, recovery rates for non-performing loans taken from a single European country are modelled using linear regression, linear regression with Lasso, beta regression and inflated beta regression. We also propose a two-stage model: beta mixture model combined with a logistic regression model. The proposed model allows us to model the multimodal distribution we find for these recovery rates. All models are built using loan characteristics, default data and collections data prior to purchase by the debt collection business. The intended use of the models is to estimate future recovery rates for improved risk assessment, capital requirement calculations and bad debt management. They are compared using a range of quantitative performance measures under K-fold cross validation. Among all the models, we find that the proposed two-stage beta mixture model performs best.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0020.v1
Online: 1 October 2018 (17:07:21 CEST)
Contract between grower and integrator has been used extensively in broiler industry all over the world. One important advantages of contract is risk management, in which contract shifts a portion of grower risk to integrator. Thus, this paper attempted to measure the amount of risk shifted from grower to integrator and the consequences of this benefit to grower. Using a panel data of actual production records of 46 Indonesian broiler growers for the period of January 2014 through December 2017, we systematically measure the amount of risk shifted to integrator and its consequences to grower. The results showed that 78.43% grower risk is shifted to integrator. However, to acquire this benefit grower receive 15% less income. Furthermore, grower face the possibility of losing their asset and stopping their production as the consequences of entering contract.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0155.v1
Online: 19 March 2018 (10:45:19 CET)
The effects of buckwheat intake on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have not been systematically investigated. The aim of the present study was to comprehensively summarise studies in humans and animals evaluating the impact of buckwheat consumption on CVD risk markers and to conduct a meta-analysis of relevant data. Thirteen randomised, controlled human studies, two cross-sectional human studies and twenty-one animal studies were identified. Using random effects models, the weighted mean difference of post-intervention concentrations of blood glucose, total cholesterol and triglycerides were significantly decreased following buckwheat intervention compared with controls [differences in blood glucose: -0.85 mmol/L (95% CI: -1.31, -0.39), total cholesterol: 0.50 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.80, -0.20) and triglycerides: 0.25 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.49, -0.02)]. Responses of a similar magnitude were seen in two cross-sectional studies. For animal studies, nineteen of twenty-one studies showed a significant reduction in total cholesterol of between 12 and 54%, and fourteen of twenty studies showed a significant reduction in triglycerides of between 2 and 74%. All exhibited high unexplained heterogeneity. There was inconsistency in HDL cholesterol outcomes in both human and animal studies. It remains unclear whether increased buckwheat intake significantly benefits other markers of CVD risk, such as weight, blood pressure, insulin, and LDL-cholesterol, and underlying mechanisms responsible for any effects are unclear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0089.v1
Online: 14 December 2017 (11:06:18 CET)
The current study aimed to: i) Monitor levels of PM10, at Shebika, Haram, Masfala, Azizia, Awali and Mina in Makkah city, KSA during the period of 01 Shawwal 1436H – 27 Rabi Al-Awwal 1437H, by using LVS instruments; and; 2) assess health risk (non-cancer and cancer risks) on humans (children and adult) exposed to PM10 in ambient air of Makkah city.The results showed that: the high PM10 levels were found in Haram site, while the lower levels were found in Awali site. These levels were lower than that set for PM10 by PME (Daily limit of 340 µg/m3). Vehicles emissions and constructions sources may be the main source of PM10 levels in Makkah city. The human health risk assessments showed that: the daily exposure doses of PM10 were ranked in the order: Ding > Ddermal > Dinh for children and adult in Makkah city. Ingestion of PM10 particles was the main exposure pathway for both children and adults. The HIs and cancer risk values were within the safe level, indicating that (non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic) risks for humans exposed to PM10 in Makkah city were negligible.
DATA DESCRIPTOR | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0088.v3
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: pesticide dissipation; risk assessment; environmental fate
Online: 28 August 2017 (16:51:22 CEST)
Data relating to the rate at which pesticide active substances dissipate on or within various plant matrices are important for a range of different risk assessments; however, despite the importance of this data, dissipation rates are not included in the most common online data resources. Databases have been collated in the past, but these tend not to be maintained or regularly updated. The purpose of the exercise described herein was to collate a new database in a format compatible with the main online pesticide database resource (the Pesticide Properties Database, PPDB), to validate this database in line with the Pesticide Properties Database protocols and thus ensure that the data is maintained and updated in future. Data was collated using a systematic review approach using several scientific databases. Collated literature was subjected to a quality assessment, and then data was extracted into an MS Excel spreadsheet. The outcome of the study is a database based on data collated from 1390 published articles covering over 400 pesticides and over 200 crops across a wide variety of different matrices (leaves, fruits, seeds etc.) for pesticide residues on the crop surface, as well as residues absorbed within the plant material. This data is now fully incorporated into the PPDB.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: Risk assessment; Evidential reasoning; Fire/explosion
Online: 9 November 2016 (10:29:29 CET)
This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0005.v2
Online: 3 November 2016 (08:39:30 CET)
Severe early childhood caries remains the most common chronic disease affecting children. Its multifactorial etiology has established a controversy about which risk factors were more significant to its development. Therefore our study aimed through meticulous statistical analysis to arrange the “well agreed upon” common risk factors in order of significance, to aid the clinician in tailoring an adequate preventive program for this affected age group. The study reshuffled the risk factors contributing to severe early childhood caries and placed them in the order of their significance as follows: snacking of sugary food several times a day, increased number of siblings to 3 or more, night feeding, child self-employed brushing, mother caries experience, 2 siblings, on demand feeding, once/day sugary food, sharing utensils, 1 Sibling, male gender, father’s education, late first child dental visit, brushing time, mother’s education, no dental visit, decreased brushing frequency & no night brushing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0226.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Analysis Keywords: Supply Chain Management (SCM); Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM); risk modelling; time-series analysis; machine learning
Online: 20 January 2020 (10:21:00 CET)
Risk modelling along with multi-objective optimization problems have been at theepicenter of attention for supply chain managers. In this paper, we introduce a datasetfor risk modelling in sophisticated supply chain networks based on formal mathematical models. We have discussed the methodology and simulation tools used to synthesize the dataset. Additionally, the underlying mathematical models are discussed in granular details along with providing directions to conducting statistical analyses or neural machine learning models. The simulation is performed using MATLAB ™Simulink and the models are illustrated as well.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0024.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: contextual risk factors; gender; individual risk factors; life-work interference; self-employed; wellbeing; work-life interference
Online: 3 July 2018 (05:56:36 CEST)
This study explores individual and contextual risk factors for the onset of work interfering with private life (WIL) and private life interfering with work (LIW) among self-employed men and women across European countries. It also studies the relationship between interference (LIW and WIL) and wellbeing among self-employed men and women and the effect of macro level risk factors. Data from the fifth round of European Working Conditions Survey was utilized and a sample of self-employed men and women with active businesses was extracted. Applying multilevel regressions, results show that though business characteristics are important for level of WIL, time demand is the most evident risk factor for WIL and LIW. There is a relationship between wellbeing and WIL and LIW respectively, and time demands is the most important factor in this relationship. Gender equality on the labor market did not relate to level of interference, nor did it mediate the relationship between interference and wellbeing. However, the main and most important risk factor for experiencing WIL and LIW and for how interference relate to wellbeing is gender relation processes in work and life, both on individual and contextual level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0194.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: tsunami; risk communication; risk perception; local knowledge; media; scientific communication; 1908 Reggio Calabria - Messina Earthquake and tsunami
Online: 11 January 2023 (03:41:55 CET)
In the Mediterranean, the probability of tsunamis is lower than in other coastal areas such as the Pacific Ring, where tsunamis are more familiar and memory of past events and anticipatory signals and protective measures is preserved by local culture, along with media and scientific sources, therefore tsunami risk is more likely to be downplayed or neglected. Past research identified socio-demographic and spatial factors that may affect tsunami risk perception. This research is based on a sample of 5842 CATI interviews to investigate whether and how risk perception and risk knowledge were affected by a major event such as the 1908 Reggio Calabria Messina tsunami, by making a comparison between areas hit by that event and unaffected areas, also providing some explanatory hypotheses. Despite differences between Calabria and Sicily, data anyway show higher levels of tsunami risk perception in the area affected by the 1908 event, along with a major role of interpersonal sources, playing a relevant role in information gathering and understanding. Research also suggests the need to better integrate different sources of knowledge to improve people’s understanding as to effectively cope with tsunami risk.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0757.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: food security; global catastrophic risk; resilience; pandemic; existential risk; COVID-19; soybeans; agriculture; chickens; rabbits; distributed production
Online: 28 April 2021 (15:42:45 CEST)
To safeguard against meat supply shortages during pandemics or other catastrophes, this study analyzed the potential to provide the average household’s entire protein consumption using either soybean production or distributed meat production at the household level in the U.S. with: 1) pasture-fed rabbits, 2) pellet and hay-fed rabbits, or 3) pellet-fed chickens. Only using the average backyard resources, soybean cultivation can provide 80%-160% of household protein and 0%-50% of a household’s protein needs can be provided by pasture-fed rabbits using only the yard grass as feed. If external supplementation of feed is available, raising 52 chickens while also harvesting the concomitant eggs or alternately 107 grain-fed rabbits can meet 100% of an average household’s protein requirements. These results show that resilience to future pandemics and challenges associated with growing meat demands can be incrementally addressed through backyard distributed protein production. Backyard production of chicken meat, eggs, and rabbit meat reduces environmental costs of protein due to savings in production, transportation, and refrigeration of meat products and even more so with soybeans. Generally, distributed production of protein was found to be economically competitive with centralized production of meat if distributed labor costs were ignored.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0153.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pharmacology & Toxicology Keywords: unrecorded alcohol; home-produced fruit spirits; metals; lead; cadmium; ethanol; health risk; risk assessment; margin of exposure
Online: 10 March 2020 (02:44:16 CET)
Unrecorded alcohol comprises all types of alcohol that is not registered in the jurisdiction where it is consumed. In some countries in Central and Eastern parts of Europe as well as the Balkan, the major amount of unrecorded alcohol consumption may derive from homeproduction of fruit spirits. Some studies found a high prevalence of lead and cadmium in such spirits. This article provides a quantitative comparative risk assessment using the margin of exposure (MOE) methodology for lead and cadmium, compared to ethanol, for unrecorded fruit spirits. For average concentration levels, the lowest MOE (0.8) was calculated for ethanol (alcohol itself). For lead, the MOE was 13 for moderate daily drinking and 0.9 for the worst case. For cadmium, the MOE was 1982 for moderate daily drinking and 113 for the worst case. The results of this study are consistent with previous comparative risk assessments that ethanol itself comprises by far the highest risk of all compounds in alcoholic beverages. Regarding the metal contaminants, the risk of cadmium appears negligible, however, lead may pose an additional health risk in heavy drinking circumstances. Strategies to avoid metal contamination in settings of artisanal homeproduction of spirits need to be developed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0022.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Tuberculosis; HIV; coinfection; Risk factors; Luanda; Angola
Online: 1 November 2022 (07:13:56 CET)
TB and HIV continue to increase and constitute major public health concerns worldwide, mainly in resource-limited countries, showing that we are not going to end HIV if we do not also end TB. Herein, we investigated the risk factors related to HIV infection among TB patients in Luanda, the capital city of Angola. This was a retrospective cohort study conducted on the medical records of 117 TB patients from January to September 2016. Overall, the HIV/TB co-infection rate was 12%. The mean age of coinfected patients was 37.7±10.1 years. No statistically significant relationship was observed between sociodemographic or clinical features with HIV/TB co-infection (p>0.05). TB patients aged 30 years or older (OR: 4.13, p=0.072), female (OR: 1.08, p=0.898), residing in urbanized areas (OR: 1.90, p=0.578), with a history of treatment abandonment (OR: 3.74, p=0.083), with polyresistance (OR: 1.62, p=0.603), and MDR-TB (OR: 2.00, p=0.454), were more likely to have HIV/TB co-infection, while latent TB infection (OR: 0.63, p=0.559) and treatment-susceptible TB patients (OR: 0.56, p=0.616), presented a lower chance of HIV/TB coinfection. Our finding showed a slightly high HIV/TB coinfected rate, which suggests that the dual HIV/TB epidemic keeps evolving and poses a huge concern to the public health in Angola. Further studies on features related to HIV/TB coinfection and its impact on disease progression and clinical outcome in adults from high-risk Angolan communities, should be carried out to intensify and strengthen collaborative activities between national TB and HIV programs in Angola.