Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Risk Assessment of Possible Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Wheat Yield and Quality

Version 1 : Received: 23 December 2019 / Approved: 26 December 2019 / Online: 26 December 2019 (10:40:01 CET)

How to cite: Liu, J.; Yao, W.; Peng, Z.; Wang, H. Risk Assessment of Possible Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Wheat Yield and Quality. Preprints 2019, 2019120352 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201912.0352.v1). Liu, J.; Yao, W.; Peng, Z.; Wang, H. Risk Assessment of Possible Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Wheat Yield and Quality. Preprints 2019, 2019120352 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201912.0352.v1).

Abstract

The effects of climate change on yield and quality for different climate regions had high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. The modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and Statistical Down Scaling Model was used for downscaling. CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk of wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions of Shaanxi combined with two climate change scenarios of CanESM2 were assessed. Temperature increased 0.22-3.34 °C and precipitation increased 10-60 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on yield in all regions. The yield risk of most regions with climate change decreased 3.8%-25.1%. The GPC risk of all regions with climate change decreased 7.3%-27.2%. Irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, while had totally different effects for the three climatic regions. Yield risk with irrigation decreased 37.7%-52.1% in different climate. In contrast to previous studies, GPC risk with irrigation increased greatly 25.8%-28.9% in humid region, 3.9%-8.8% in sub-humid region, and decreased 37.7%-52.1% in semi-arid region. Climate change decreased yield risk and GPC risk together. While irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, had totally different effects for the three climatic regions.

Subject Areas

climate change; wheat quality; risk assessment; irrigation; CERES-Wheat; yield

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