Land cover refers to the combination of various material types and their natural characteristics on the Earth. Accurately mapping the spatial distribution and temporal changes of the earth's land cover is of great significance for studying the energy balance and carbon cycle of the earth system. However, there is still a high degree of human participation in the production of multi-temporal land cover products. Developing an automated method for multi-epoch land cover mapping has become a key research focus. To this end, an automatic training sample extraction method was first employed using multi-source prior land cover products. Then, based on the generated training dataset and the Random Forest classifier, local adaptive land cover classification models of the reference year were developed. Finally, by migrating the classification model to the target epoch, the multi-epoch land cover products were generated. Yuli County in Xinjiang and Linxi County in Inner Mongolia were used as test cases. The classification models were first generated in 2020 and then transferred to 2010 to enable automatic classification of multi-temporal land cover. The mapping results showed high accuracy in both regions, with Yuli County achieving 92.52% in 2020 and 88.33% in 2010, and Linxi County achieving 90.28% in 2020 and 85.28% in 2010. Additionally, uncertainty analysis of the model migration method revealed that land types such as water bodies, wetlands, and impervious surfaces, which exhibit significant spectral changes over time, are less suitable for the model migration. Our research can offer valuable insights for fine-resolution land cover mapping. Furthermore, the approach provides a scalable solution for multi-period land cover monitoring, which could facilitate more efficient and accurate environmental assessments.

During deep-sea mining, the heavy metals pollutants can cause contamination in the marine environment. In this paper, the multiphasic coupling model is established to describe the heavy metal migration process during deep-sea mining, which takes the effects of convection-diffusion, adsorption-desorption and sedimentation-resuspension of heavy metals in the aquatic environment into full consideration. Due to the advantages of Lattice Boltzmann method, it is adopted to numerically solve the multiphasic coupling model and achieve the simulation for heavy metal migration process during deep-sea mining. In addition, taking Cadmium as an example, the concentration variations are discussed and analyzed in detail. Based on the established model and Lattice Boltzmann method, the concentration distribution of heavy metals can be accurately described to provide the reasonable bases for the evaluation of marine environmental protection.

With the intensification of population aging in rural areas, it becomes increasingly important to analyze the post-retirement migration intention of rural residents and the variables influencing these intentions. In this study, we focus on rural residents aged 45 to 60 and investigate the main variables that influence the post-retirement migration intention of rural residents, using survey data collected from 164 households in three different rural areas and the logistic regression model. From the result of this study, we found that gender, part-time employment, savings level, children's residence and occupation stability, and interest in urban living positively affect migration intention. In contrast, the number of rural companions, relationships with others in rural areas, and evaluation of rural living have a negative effect. In addition, we employ age and the proportion of mobile income as control variables to examine the variables that influence the post-retirement migration intention in different age groups and mobile income groups. The analysis reveals that, the variables influencing post-retirement migration intention varied across age groups and mobile income groups, and this variation can be attributed to the differences between groups' characteristics.

The traditional bored pile technology has some arduous problems, such as the sediment at the pile tip, the mud skin along the pile shaft, and the stress release due to borehole construction. The post-grouted technology at the pile tip of bored pile has emerged because of demand. The grouting migration height (GMH) is of great significance to the strengthen and reinforcement of the pile foundation. This paper derives the calculation formula of the GMH based on the theory of the column hole expansion and Herschel-Bulkley model. The influence of relevant parameters on the GMH is discussed. Aiming at the problem of the grouting migration along the pile shaft in layered soils, the iterative calculation method of the GMH is proposed. The correctness of the GMH is verified by an engineering case, which can guide the engineering practice. The result shows that the GMH increases with the increase of the grouting pressure, the pile diameter and the thickness of the mud skin, and the grouting pressure is positively correlated with the GMH. The GMH decreases with the increase of the buried depth, the consistency coefficient and the rheological index. On this basis, the correctness of the GMH is verified by an engineering case.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

This paper describes the E-Sense Artificial Intelligence system. It comprises of a memory model with 2 levels of information and then a more neural layer above that. The lower memory level stores source data in a Markov (n-gram) structure that is unweighted. Then a middle ontology level is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information. Each phase re-structures from an ensemble to a tree, where the information transposition may be from horizontal set-based sequences into more vertical, typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be stored in the calling module. The success of the ontology typing is open to question, but results produced answers based more on use and context. The third level is more functional, where each function can represent a subset of the base data and learn how to transpose across it. The functional structures are shown to be quite orthogonal, or separate and are made from nodes with a progressive type of capability, including unordered to ordered. Comparisons with the columnar structure of the neural cortex can be made and the idea of ordinal learning, or just learning relative positions, is introduced. While this is still a work in progress, it offers a different architecture to the current favourites and may be able to give different views of the data from what they can provide.

Machine unlearning is a critical process designed to allow machine learning models to forget or remove specific data upon request, particularly for privacy protection. While the primary objective of unlearning is to safeguard sensitive information, it introduces substantial privacy and security risks. This paper explores the two major categories of threats to machine unlearning: privacy attacks and security attacks. Privacy attacks, such as membership inference and model inversion, exploit residual information to infer or reconstruct sensitive data that should have been erased. Security attacks, particularly specific data poisoning, involve the injection of malicious data into the training process, which may leave lingering effects even after the unlearning process. In this paper, we provide an in-depth examination of these threats and propose several defense mechanisms. Differential privacy, adversarial training, and query limitations are highlighted as key defenses against privacy attacks, while data validation, adversarial examples, and post-unlearning audits are critical in mitigating security risks. Additionally, we discuss emerging methodologies like data provenance tracking and fine-tuning as crucial for ensuring unlearning processes are thorough and effective. Through these analyses, we aim to provide a comprehensive framework for strengthening the security and privacy of machine unlearning systems, enabling their broader adoption across industries such as healthcare, finance, and AI-driven technologies.

In this paper, we integrate the Finite Element Method (FEM) with orthogonal polynomial approximation in high-dimensional spaces to innovatively model the Moon’s surface gravity anomaly. Our aim is to approximate solutions to Laplace’s classical differential equations of gravity, employing classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions. Using classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions, the least-squares approximation was used to approximate discrete samples of the approximation function. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. The first application of this project is to substitute the globally-valid classical spherical harmonic series of approximations with locally-valid series of orthogonal polynomial approximations (i.e. using the FEM approach). With an error tolerance set at 10−9ms−2, we use this method to adapt the gravity model radially upwards from the lunar surface. The results showcase a need for a higher degree of approximation on and near the lunar surface, with the necessity decreasing as the radius increases. Notably, this method achieves a computational speedup of five orders of magnitude when applying the method to radial adaptation. More intrinsically, our second application involves using the methodology as an effective tool in solving boundary value problems. Specifically, we implement this approach to solve classical differential equations involved with high precision, long-term orbit propagation. This application provides a four-order of magnitude speedup in computational time while maintaining an error within the 10−10ms−2 error range for various orbit propagation tests. Alongside the advancements in orthogonal approximation theory, the FEM enables revolutionary speedups in orbit propagation without compromising accuracy.

This study systematically addresses the challenge of accurately modeling memristors, focusing on four distinct types doped with tungsten, tin, chromium, and carbon, fabricated by Known Inc. A comprehensive characterization was performed by subjecting the devices to sinusoidal excitations with varying frequencies and amplitudes, followed by data averaging and high-frequency filtering. The resulting measurements were fitted using three prominent memristor models: VTEAM, MMS, and Yakopcic, with additional bespoke modifications assessed. These models, typically formulated as coupled algebraic-differential equations integrating electrical quantities (voltage and current) with internal state variables governing device dynamics, were optimized using two robust approaches: (1) interior-point optimization with gradient-based search, and (2) Nelder-Mead gradient-free optimization, both with box constraints applied. A thorough comparison and discussion of the optimized model parameters ensued, accompanied by an examination of sensitivity to diverse frequency and amplitude ranges. The findings inform conclusions and provide a foundation for future refinements, underscoring the importance of multi-model evaluation and advanced optimization strategies in precise memristor modeling. The presented methodology offers a valuable framework for elucidating optimal modeling paradigms tailored to specific memristor architectures and operating regimes, ultimately enhancing their integration in emerging neuromorphic and computational applications.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Hydroelectric power is one of the most essential renewable energy sources in the world. In addition to generating electricity, hydropower offers other benefits such as flood control, irrigation assistance, and clean drinking water. In this study, we examine the evolution of hydropower in the context of energy transition with a forecasting analysis. We analyze time series data of hydropower generation from 1965 to 2023 and apply Innovation Diffusion Models as well as other models such as Prophet and ARIMA for comparison. The models are evaluated for different geographical regions, namely the North, South, and Central American countries, the European countries, and the Middle East with Asian countries, to determine their effectiveness in predicting trends in hydropower generation. The models' accuracy is assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Through this analysis, we find that, on average, the GGM model outperforms the Prophet and ARIMA models, and is more accurate than the Bass Model. This analysis underscores the critical role of precise forecasting in energy planning and suggests further research to validate these results and explore other factors influencing the development of hydroelectric generation.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

The volatility of global energy markets, particularly electricity prices, plays a crucial role in influencing international economic activities. With the ongoing global energy transition and the push for low-carbon development, predicting electricity prices has become increasingly important for policymakers and market participants. This paper explores the forecasting capabilities of the ARIMA and LSTM models in analyzing electricity prices in the United States, drawing from data spanning 2001 to 2024.ARIMA, a traditional time series model, is valued for its simplicity and effectiveness in capturing linear trends, while LSTM, a deep learning-based model, excels at handling long-term dependencies in complex datasets. This study reveals that while both models offer valuable insights, each exhibits limitations. ARIMA struggles with non-linear patterns and volatility, whereas LSTM tends to underestimate extreme price values. The findings highlight the potential of hybrid models that combine traditional and machine learning approaches to enhance forecasting accuracy in the increasingly dynamic energy market. This research provides essential guidance for improving decision-making processes in the context of the global shift towards clean energy.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

Deep-learning-based convection schemes receive wide attention due to its impressive im-provement on precipitation distribution and tropical convections of earth system simulation. But they cannot represent the stochasticity of moist physics, which will degrade the simulation of large-scale circulations, climate mean, and variability. To solve this problem, a stochastic pa-rameterization scheme based on probabilistic diffusion model named DIFF-MP is developed. The cloud-resolving data from GRIST model is coarse-grained into resolved-scale variables and sub-grid contributions due to moist physics to form the training data. DIFF-MP’s performance is compared against generative adversarial network and variational autoencoder. Results show that DIFF-MP is consistently better than the other two models on prediction error, coverage ratio, and spread-skill correlation. The standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of subgrid contributions generated by DIFF-MP is also closer to the testing data than the others. Interpretability experiment shows that DIFF-MP’s parameterization of moist physics is physically reasonable.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

Nowadays, network simulators are very useful to model a communications system. In this technical note we will focus in the creation of a new error model in NS-3 network simulator. This note describes the main steps to create or modify an Wi-Fi error model in this network simulator. In our case, we have created a new error model to included the approach of [1] to compute PER (Packet Error Rate) for vehicular environments.

Aiming at the defects of low precision and time cumulative error, an external wireless signal weighted centroid localization algorithm aided inertial positioning method is designed in this paper. According to the signal strength of each anchor node received at the test point, the distance between the anchor node and the anchor node is obtained by using the attenuation model of the wireless signal. Three anchor nodes are used to measure the distance between the anchor node and the measured point. We can obtain the area to be measured according to the actual situation, the position of the measured point is obtained by the weighted centroid localization algorithm and a combined model of wireless signal aided inertial navigation system is established. The simulation results show that the method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and restrain the divergence of the longitude error and latitude error.

A new two-dimensional nanomaterial – Titanium Carbide MXene (Ti₃C₂-MXene) – was reported in 2011. In this work, the microscale models of Ti₃C₂-MXene nanomaterial are considered with polymer matrix. The nanocomposites are modeled using nacre-mimetic brick-and-mortar assembly configurations due to enhanced mechanical properties and interlocking mechanism between the Ti₃C₂-MXene (brick) and polymer matrices (mortar). The polymer matrix material (Epoxy-resin) is modeled with elastic and viscoelastic behavior (Kelvin-Voigt Model). The Finite Element Method is used for numerical analysis of the microscale models with the multi-point constraint method to include Ti₃C₂-MXene fillers in the polymer matrix. Ti₃C₂-MXenes are considered as thick plate elements with transverse shear effects. The response of elastic and viscoelastic models of polymer matrix are studied. Finally, a tensile and compressive load is applied at the microscale and the effective load transfer due to nacre-mimetic configuration is discussed. This paper provides nacre-mimetic models to pre-design the nanocomposite for optimal performance with damage resistance and enhanced strength.

For over a decade, endoscopic hemostatic powders have been used to manage upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Various preclinical benchtop and animal models have been developed to evaluate these devices. Multiple companies have released hemostatic powders to market, assessing their safety and efficacy using an established porcine gastric vessel bleed model. This model simulates an aggressive arterial bleed, allowing prototypes to be tested under challenging conditions. It requires a surgeon to insert an artery segment into the gastric lumen and puncture it to produce a bleed. In our study, we tested a control group not included in prior research. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between intragastric pressure and bleed severity by injecting gas used to deliver hemostatic powder to the bleed site, without administering hemostatic powder. Our results indicate that elevated intragastric pressures alone can cause bleed cessation. Additional findings suggest that other factors in the model can lead to false positive hemostasis. This study highlights flaws in the porcine gastric vessel bleed model and underscores the need to develop more robust models for testing hemostatic devices, as no valid endoscopic bleed model currently exists. These experiments stress the importance of vetting preclinical models before acquiring efficacy data.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

Constructing the fundamental principles of intelligence and consciousness has become a significant scientific challenge. The literature indicates that current theories of intelligence and consciousness have yet to provide comprehensive answers regarding the unified structure, objectives, and significance of the entities generating intelligence and consciousness, the driving forces, the relationship between intelligence and consciousness, and the distinctions between different types of consciousness.This study extends von Neumann architecture to establish Standard Agent Model as an axiom, proposing that any system (agent) possesses five essential capabilities: Information input, output, storage, creation, and control over the use of these capabilities. By taking the maximum and minimum values for each of these five capabilities, two extreme states and two types of intelligence forces of the agent are derived. Inspired by the principles of flight, the above elements are combined to establish the “Flight Model (FM)” of intelligence and consciousness. Intelligence is defined as the agent’s ability to utilize the five capabilities comprehensively to evolve between the two extreme states under the influence of intelligence forces. Consciousness is defined as the agent’s ability to control the use of intelligence under the influence of the two types of intelligence forces. Based on the relationship between control and being controlled, consciousness is further subdivided into self-consciousness, other-consciousness, mix consciousness, and unconsciousness.This study evaluates the intelligence levels and self-awareness of various agents based on the FM theoretical framework through designed experiments. The results show that current artificial intelligence systems exhibit intelligence close to adult human levels but have not yet demonstrated self-consciousness. This study constructs a theoretical system of intelligence and consciousness, providing a theoretical basis for determining the timeline for achieving AGI and addressing AI self-consciousness issues.

EIMIs face the challenge of adapting to the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal to achieve carbon neutrality. This change is being driven by consumer interest in low-carbon products, regulatory requirements from climate agreements and investors prioritizing sustainability. This pressure is pushing companies to go beyond short-term financial gains and integrate sustainability into their business. The growing awareness of the environmental impact of business models (BM) has fueled the development of Sustainable Business Models (SBMs). This study aims to link the discussion on the role of SBMs in the drivers of decarbonization, to improve the understanding of how the drivers can be integrated and enable new BMs for EIMIs. Based on a structured literature review, semi-structured interviews were conducted in the EIMIs. The study identifies BM-components that are influenced by these drivers and require sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). The results show that decarbonization drivers have a significant impact on all BM components. Experts emphasize the importance of collaborative approaches and cooperation throughout the value chain. This research elaborates on the importance of systematic analysis to understand how companies can effectively manage decarbonization drivers and suggests in-depth exploration within BM-research to uncover potential SBM design options.

River flood routing computes changes in shape of a flood wave over time as it travels downstream along a river. Conventional flood routing models, especially hydrodynamic models require high quality and quantity of input data such as measured hydrologic time series, geometric data, hydraulic structures and hydrological parameters. Unlike physically based models, machine learning algorithms, which are data driven models, do not require much knowledge about underlying physical processes and can identify complex nonlinearity between inputs and outputs. Due to the higher performance, less complexity, and low computation cost, novel machine learning methods as a single application or hybrid application were introduced by researchers to achieve more accurate and efficient flood routing. This paper reviews the recent application of machine learning methods in river flood routing.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

In this work, we study the dynamical behaviors of the electromagnetic fields and material responses in the hyperbolic metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged metallic and dielectric layers. The thickness of each unit cell is assumed to be much smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves, so the effective medium concept can be applied. When electromagnetic (EM) fields are present, the responses of the medium in the directions parallel to and perpendicular to the layers are like that of Drude and Lorentz media, respectively. We derive the energy density of the EM fields and the power loss in the effective medium based on Poynting theorem and the dynamical equations of the polarization field. We also show that the Lagrangian density of the system can be constructed. The Euler-Lagrangian equations yield the correct dynamical equations of the electromagnetic fields and the polarization field in the medium. The canonical momentum conjugates to every dynamical field can be derived from the Lagrangian density via differentiation or variation with respect to that field. We apply Legendre transformation to this system, and find that the resultant Hamitonian density is identical to the energy density, up to an irrelevant divergence term.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

In this paper we will present a simplified approach for extracting the ground level – a digital terrain model (DTM) – from the surface provided in a digital surface model (DSM). Most existing algorithms try to find the ground values in a digital surface model. Our approach works the opposite direction by detecting probable above ground areas. The main advantage of our approach is the possibility to use it with incomplete DSMs containing much no data values which can be e.g. occlusions in the calculated DSM. A smoothing or filling of such original derived DSMs will destroy much information which is very useful for deriving a ground surface from the DSM. Since the presented approach needs steep edges to detect potential high objects it will fail on smoothed and filled DSMs. After presenting the algorithm it will be applied to a test area in Salzburg and compared to a terrain model freely available from the Austrian government.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

This paper reviews recent works related to applications of reinforcement learning in power system optimal control problems. Based on an extensive analysis of works in the recent literature, we attempt to better understand what is the gap between reinforcement learning methods that rely on complete or incomplete information about the model dynamics, and data-driven reinforcement learning approaches. More specifically we ask how such models change based on the application or the algorithm, what are the currently open theoretical and numerical challenges in each of the leading applications, and which reinforcement-based control strategies will rise in the following years. The reviewed research works are divided to ``model-based'' methods and ``model-free'' methods, in order to highlight the current developments and trends within each of these two groups. The optimal control problems reviewed are energy markets, grid stability and control, energy management in buildings, electrical vehicles and energy storage.

The emphasis in the automotive industry towards sustainable mobility has led to a significant interest in hybrid-electric propulsion systems with high energy density batteries. Addressing the needs of this strategy, the battery market is exploring new technologies to improve the safety and lifespan of electric vehicles. To this end, there is a focus on the all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology for its cycle capabilities. Filling the current void in the literature pertaining to accurate ageing models for ASSBs, in this work, we present an enhanced version of the numerical ageing model, originally developed for liquid electrolyte based batteries, to forecast the development of the solid electrolyte interface layer that is the major cause of battery capacity fading. The model has been tested on prototype batteries and reveals an accuracy of 99%. The capacity fade in ASSBs has been investigated under different conditions, and the enhanced ageing model has been validated using experimental data from these batteries. The findings suggest that there is potential for solid-state batteries to be commercialized, although significant work is needed to match the manufacturing level of lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes.

In order to study the adsorption process and adsorption characteristics of shale oil at the macro scale, the isothermal adsorption experiments of illite and kerogen on heptadecane (oil phase) solution were carried out by infrared spectrophotometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The reaction mechanism of alkane solution concentration and temperature in the adsorption process was investigated. The adsorption characteristics of heptadecane on the surface and pores of illite and kerogen were elucidated by adsorption isotherm model and adsorption thermodynamic model. The results show that: The concentration of alkane solution contributes to the adsorption of illite and kerogen. As the concentration of the solution continues to increase, the adsorption rate gradually slows down. However, the temperature hardly affects the adsorption rate. At 25℃, 50℃ and 60℃, the adsorption process of illite on alkane solution is more consistent with Langmuir model and Freundlich model, respectively. The difference is that Langmuir model is suitable for describing the whole adsorption process of kerogen on alkane solution. 3) The adsorption process of illite and kerogen to heptadecane solution is an endothermic reaction. Heating helps to accelerate the migration rate of alkanes, which is conducive to the adsorption reaction. The research results clarify the adsorption characteristics of shale oil heavy components from the macro level, and fill the research gap in the application of solid-liquid isothermal adsorption physical experiments to the adsorption and occurrence of shale oil.

Colleges and universities play a crucial role in fostering innovation, making it essential to explore effective strategies for promoting innovation at the institutional policy level. This paper focuses on the establishment of intellectual property (IP) model cities as a starting point and conducts an empirical analysis using innovation data from 234 cities and 942 colleges and universities between 2007 and 2017. By constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model, this study reveals that the establishment of IP model cities effectively fosters innovation in colleges and universities. Further analysis demonstrates that this promotion effect is particularly significant in the western region, key cities, key colleges and universities, as well as in the fields of invention and utility model patents. These conclusions withstand a series of robustness tests, confirming their validity. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, it is found that the national IP pilot city policy has a substantial impact on university innovation by promoting research and development (R&D) investment and strengthening innovation cooperation. The insights provided by this study offer valuable policy recommendations for leveraging the innovation potential of the IP model city policy, thereby driving economic transformation, upgrading, and fostering innovation development in China.

While considering the sensitivity over the parameter optimization, it is essential to determine which parameters have the most significant implications on model performance. This study focuses on the baseflow recession constant as one of the independent basin parameters to forecast low flows, perform hydrograph analysis, and calibrate rainfall-runoff models for significant improvement. Prior studies examined that the optimization of data adjustment parameters can improve the hydrological model performance and determine the minimum acceptable data length for data scarce regions using the Xinanjaing model. However, it is essential to pay special attention to the sensitivity of the recession constant, which can also impact the model performance during the data scarcity. Therefore, this study extends the research to comprehend the recession constant sensitivity over data adjustment parameters in the shorter datasets leading to more reliable parameter estimation. In terms of that, this study explores how recession constant affects hydrological parameter estimation on annual scale while keeping data adjustment parameters constant in continuous hydrological modeling, employing the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model as a case study. This study considered two approaches of recession constant (cg); (i) assessing the relationship between cg and the data adjustment parameter (Cep), for the 28-year datasets, (ii) investigating the significant impacts of the sensitivity of cg over Cep in shorter datasets which can affect the estimation of the acceptable minimum data length in the data scarce basins. The study underscores the importance of the recession constant sensitivity for reliable continuous hydrological model predictions, especially in data-scared areas. The study’s outcomes enhance the understanding of the importance of parameter sensitivity and its relationship in conceptual hydrological modeling during the data limitations.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

In this paper, a novel strategy is adopted in a degradation model to affect the implied lifetime distribution. The multiplicative degradation model is utilized as a postulate in the model. It will be established that the implied lifetime distribution forms a classical mixture model. In this mixture model, time-to-failure is lying with some probabilities between two first passage times of the degradation process to reach two specified levels. Stochastic comparisons in the model under a change in the probabilities are studied. Several examples are provided to highlight the applicability of the results in the cases when typical degradation models are candidate.

During the dry season, glaciers contribute significantly to the water supply downstream, especially in areas with seasonal rainfall. It is important to have physical-based glacier models, which are more advanced in quantifying the future dynamics of glaciers and melt distribution. Toward this purpose, an investigation of different numerical modeling tools and their approach is conducted and planned further to incorporate a glacier module into a spatially distributed model called mHM (Mesoscale Hydrological Model, mhm-ufz.org). An open-source tool called MATILDA (Modeling Water Resources in Glacierized Catchments) is used beforehand to implement the glacier entities to the application catchment Maipo Basin in Chile. Due to limited time availability and source of data, the glacier melt of the MATILDA model is integrated into the mHM model to see what the implications would be if the glacier module was implemented from scratch in mHM. The analysis of the glacier hydrology resulting from the Maipo-Glacier model was carried out by comparing the modeled glacier flows with the total observed flows. To assess the credibility of the models, the results are compared based on three goodness-fit measures, specifically r^2Coefficient of Determination), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), and KGE (Kling-Gupta Efficiency). Application of the mHM model in the Maipo basin in Central Chile is performed by using prepared input datasets, showing that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.80 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70 from the starting periods of 1950 to 2020. Overestimation by the mHM model occurs during the late summer season, particularly when temperature decreases. The MATILDA model is used on glacier melt distribution, forcing data is prepared from regional datasets, and a glacier profile is constructed from ice thickness datasets. According to the model, the average KGE result for the years 2012–14 and 2015–18 was respectively 0.44 and 0.41. Glacier melt produced by Matilda is in the range of 58-68 % of the total runoff and the glacier area decreased by 22-23% during the simulation period from 2012-14 and 2016-2018. A pilot sub-basin Olivares is used in the coupling mHM model with initializing MATILDA glacier melt. The new model is underestimated during the seasonal transition in the initial days of the simulation. A considerable portion of the ablation period might be missed as a result of the initial storage quality, true glacier extent, and height distribution being understated. As a conclusion, the mHM Model was capable of predicting runoff well in a mountainous region and could also serve as a monitoring tool for watershed management. There are differences in results between the two models because of the different spatial resolutions and methodologies. MATILDA have a glacier retreat routine that gives better result for the glacier characteristics such as. A new glacier dynamics model needs to be implemented in the future to develop intermediate complexity, bridge catchment, and glacier scales after using the mHM, MATILDA, and mHM with MATIDLA model for analysis of glacier and highlighting the model's deficiencies in the initial period of simulative assessments.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of the development of an over-the-counter (OTC) screening model using machine learning for breast cancer screening in the Asian women population. Data were retrospectively collected from women who came to the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia. Five screening models were developed based on machine learning methods; random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), elastic-net logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features used for the development of the screening models were limited to information from the patients’ registration form. The model performance was assessed across the dense and non-dense groups. SVM had the best sensitivity while elastic-net logistic regression had the best specificity. In terms of precision, both random forest elastic-net logistic regression had the best performance, while, in terms of PR-AUC, XGBoost had the best performance. Additionally, SVM had a more balanced performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity across the mammographic density groups. The three most important features were age at examination, weight and number of children. In conclusion, OTC models developed from machine learning methods can improve the prognostic process of breast cancer in Asian women.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

In this paper, the seven traditional models of PV modules are reviewed comprehensively to find out the appropriate model to be reliable. All the models are validated using the Matlab code and make a graphical comparison. The accuracy and convergence of each model are evaluated using data of manufactured PV panels. Then, a novel model is proposed showing its consistent performance. The most three key parameters of single-diode model are self revised to adapt to various type of PV modules. This new method is verified in three types of PV panels' data measured by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US. The validated data show promising results when the error RMSEs' range of the proposed model is under 0.36.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

The aim of this study has been to develop a novel two-level multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize time series forecasting data for fans used in road tunnels by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). Level 1 is for the process of forecasting time series cost data, while level 2 evaluates the forecasting. Level 1 implements either a multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model or a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. Level 2 utilises a multi-objective GA based on different forecasting error rates to identify a proper forecasting. Our method is compared with using the ARIMA model only. The results show the drawbacks of time series forecasting using only the ARIMA model. In addition, the results of the two-level model show the drawbacks of forecasting using a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. A multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model produces better forecasting results. In level 2, five forecasting accuracy functions help in selecting the best forecasting. Selecting a proper methodology for forecasting is based on the averages of the forecasted data, the historical data, the actual data and the polynomial trends. The forecasted data can be used for life cycle cost (LCC) analysis.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

A unified critical state model has been developed for both clean sand and silty sand using the modified Cam-clay model (MCC). The main feature of the proposed model is a new critical state line equation in the e-ln(p) plane that is capable of handling both straight and curved test results. With this feature, the error in calculating plastic volumetric strain is eliminated in theory. Another crucial feature of the model is the transformed stress tensor based on the SMP (spatially mobilized plane) criterion, which takes into account the proper shear yield and failure of soil under three-dimensional stresses. Additionally, the proposed model applies the intergranular void ratio with the fines influence factor for silty sand. Only eight soil parameters are required for clean sand, and a total number of twelve soil parameters are needed for silty sand.

Dyadic data contains co-occurrences of objects, which is often modeled by finite mixture model which in turn is learned by expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Objects in traditional dyadic data are identified by names, causing the drawback which is that it is impossible to extract implicit valuable knowledge under objects. In this research, I propose the so-called attributed dyadic data (ADD) in which each object has an informative attribute and each co-occurrence of two objects is associated with a value. ADD is flexible and covers most of structures / forms of dyadic data. Conditional mixture model (CMM), which is a variant of finite mixture model, is applied into learning ADD. Moreover, a significant feature of CMM is that any co-occurrence of two objects is based on some conditional variable. As a result, CMM can predict or estimate co-occurrent values based on regression model, which extends applications of ADD and CMM.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario1), ecological development priority(Scenario2), and cropland development priority(Scenario3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low stress (SSP119), medium stress (SSP245), and high stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) Water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) By 2030, the water yield of Scenario1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing ecological development priority by 0.5%; (4) Climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 67% higher water production than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.

Background: The key objective of this research was to identify the dominant parameters and determine the patient status of pediatric patients with congenital heart disease in the ICU. The data we collected from the Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) Surgery Unit (ICU) in the National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data from 300 ICU patients was collected and analyzed. We choose patients who are less than 12 years old at the time of ICU admission and whose ICU stay is longer than 24 hours. (2) Methods: According to the doctor’s advice, the dependent and independent variables are selected. The relationship between these parameters in the ICU was selected by linear modeling, which is associated with mortality risk. These parameters are used in the linear regression model and the ARIMA model for prediction. The prediction model is used for pediatric congenital heart disease patients in the ICU. (3) Results: The relation between CVP and BP (95% CI=0.2113,0.353 r=0.2841249), PEEP, and FiO2 (95% CI=0.6992,0.770 r=0.7367744) is statistically significant (p value&lt;0.001). pH and PO2 were statistically significant, but there were correlations (95% CI=0.161,0.308 r=0.2362575). The statistically significant (p &lt; 0.001) parameters were selected for prediction. In this study, BP, FiO2, and PO2 parameters were used in the linear regression model and the ARIMA model for prediction. We predict the next-hour patient’s status. The ARIMA model was found to have less error than the linear regression model. (4) Conclusions: This study helps identify the important parameters that are measured in the ICU to monitor patient status and predict the future value of those parameters, with the ultimate goal of providing physicians with an early signal of future patient conditions.

The research develops and validates new decomposition models for DNI estimations from Southern African data. The results demonstrated improved DNI estimation accuracy compared to the baseline models across all testing and validation datasets. These outcomes suggest that utilising a localised model can significantly enhance DNI estimations for Southern Africa and potentially for developing similar models in diverse geographic regions worldwide. Furthermore, clustered models highlighted the potential advantages of grouping data based on shared geographical and climatic attributes. This clustering approach could enhance decomposition model performance, particularly when local data is limited or data is available from multiple nearby stations. The Southern African decomposition model, which encompasses a wide spectrum of climatic regions and geographic locations, exhibited notable improvements over the baseline models despite occasional overestimation or underestimation. The overall metrics affirm the substantial advancement achieved with the Southern African model. This study focused on validating the model for hourly DNI in Southern Africa within a range of clearness index-intervals from 0.175 to 0.875. Implementing accurate decomposition models in developing countries can accelerate the adoption of renewable energy sources, diminishing reliance on coal and fossil fuels.

The paper presents a simplified laminar model with which the deformation of soil layers (base, subbase and subgrade courses) under flexible pavements due to repeated traffic load can be determined. In the first step, the cyclic strain amplitude is calculated using a nonlinear material model that is based on particle size distribution parameters (d50 and CU) and dependent on the mean normal stress, relative density and actual strain level. In the second step, the HCA (High Cycle Accumulation) model is used to calculate the residual settlement of each sublayer as a function of the number of cycles. It is shown that the developed model is suitable for describing different types of subgrades and pavement cross-sections. It is also demonstrated with finite element calculations that the developed model describes both the elastic and plastic strains sufficiently accurately. The developed model can predict the settlement and rutting of pavement structures with sufficient accuracy based on easily available particle size distribution parameters without the need of complex laboratory and finite element tests.

Industrial process control systems commonly exhibit features of time-varying, strong coupling, and strong nonlinearity. Obtaining accurate mathematical models of these nonlinear systems and achieving satisfactory control performance is still a challenging task. In this paper, data-driven modeling techniques and deep learning methods are used to accurately capture a category of smooth nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal features. The operating point of these systems may change over time, and their nonlinear characteristics can be locally linearized. We established the LSTM-CNN-ARX model by utilizing a fusion of long short-term memory (LSTM) network and convolutional neural network (CNN) to fit the coefficients of the state-dependent exogenous variable autoregressive (SD-ARX) model. Compared to other models, the hybrid LSTM-CNN-ARX model is more effective in capturing the nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal characteristics due to its incorporating the strengths of LSTM for learning temporal characteristics and CNN for capturing spatial characteristics. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategy, namely LSTM-CNN-ARX-MPC, is developed by utilizing the model's local linear and global nonlinear features. The control comparison experiments conducted on a water tank system (WTS) show the effectiveness of the developed models and MPC methods.

Pancreatic cancer represents one of the difficult problems of contemporary medicine. The development illness evolves very slowly, takes place in special sake (stroma) and manifests clinically close to a final stage. Another feature of this pathology is a coexistence (symbiotic) effect between cancer cells and normal cells inside stroma. All these aspects make it difficult to understand the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer and develop a proper therapy. The emergence of pancreatic pre-cancer and cancer cells represents a branching stochastic process engaging populations of 64 cells differing in the number of acquired mutations. In this study we formulate and calibrate the mathematical model of pancreatic cancer using the quasispecies framework. The mathematical model incorporates the mutation matrix, fineness landscape matrix and the death rates. Each element of the mutation matrix presents the probability of appearing a specific mutation in the branching sequence of cells representing the accumulation of mutations. The model incorporates the cancer cell elimination by effect CD8 T cells (CTL). The down-regulation of the effector function of CTLs and exhaustion are parameterized. The symbiotic effect of coexistence of normal and cancer cells is considered. The computational predictions obtained with the model are consistent with empirical data. The modelling approach can be used to investigate other types of cancers and examine various treatment procedures.

The use of cobalt-iron (VaCoFe) core is investigated as an alternative to silicon-iron (FeSi) on the design of interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM). A spoke-type IPMSM geometry is optimized considering FeSi and VaCoFe cores for a torque range up to 40 N.m, providing a general comparative analysis between materials, considering the application of a 4-motor competition vehicle’s powertrain. A genetic optimization algorithm is applied over a hybrid analytical/finite-element model of the motor to provide sufficiently accurate electromagnetic and thermal results within a feasible time. VaCoFe can result in an estimated increase of up to 5 % in efficiency for the same torque, or up to 64 % torque increase for the same efficiency level. After optimization, and using a detailed time-dependent model, a potential 3.2 % increase in efficiency, a core weight reduction of 4.1 %, and a decrease of 9.6 % in the motor’s core volume was found for the VaCoFe at 20 Nm. In addition, for the same motor volume, the VaCoFe allows an increase of 51.9 % of torque with an increase of 1.1 % of efficiency, when compared with FeSi.

The cellular model we teach and have theorized assumes that the cell is the basic unit of multicellular living beings. This fundamental element has been the subject of many theories concerning its properties and the exchanges that exist with its environment. In this article, we demonstrate that certain functional aspects, in particular the electrical aspects related to diffusion, have not been correctly assumed or that certain initial conditions have been purely ignored and are in contradiction with physics, chemistry and thermodynamics.

Trachsummaroma is an eye infectious disease caused by Chlamydia Trachomatis bacterium, which may lead to irreversible blindness. The disease is spread directly or indirectly by contacting a contaminated material. It can also be transmitted through the disease vector known as “Musca sorbens” or “Bazaar fly”. To curtail the spread of the disease in a population, a meaningful information on the spread and possible control of the disease is required. Mathematical modeling provides efficient tools that can be used to understand and analyze the dynamics of the disease and its control. Several compartmental epidemic models have been proposed in the literature to study the dynamics of trachoma; including SI, SIR and SEIR. However, majority of the existing trachoma models consider only person to person transmission. Thus, the information provided by such models is insufficient since they did not capture the disease vector transmission. The current study proposed a novel SEIR-SEI model that consider both person-person and vector transmission dynamics. The threshold quantity, basic reproduction number R0 is obtained using the next generation matrix, and it was proved that the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Some simulation results with the aid of mesh plots for the reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters were obtained. Furthermore, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the influence of the individual parameters on the R0. Numerical results show that the vector contact rate has the highest sensitivity with respect to R0, and the value of R0 increases with increase in, hence, the disease can be controlled by decreasing the vector contact rate. Similarly, improving the rate of environmental hygiene and facial cleanliness will decrease the size of R0 and result in the declination of the disease transmission. Moreover, a detailed parameter estimation of the model parameters and model fitting was presented with the use of field data cases from Northern Nigeria using least-square fitting method. The study provides alternative tools that can be used for planning trachoma control program to achieve global eradication of trachoma as a public heath challenge as targeted by WHO in 2030.

Mistrust between scientists and non-scientist stakeholders is a key challenge in fishery management. This problem is exacerbated with the use of complex models to support management: these models suffer from difficulties in communicating their results and a lack of confidence from end users. The European eel is an illustrative example; its complex life cycle raises problems of coordination and discussion among the multiple actors involved in the management of the species. The GEREM model has been proposed as a tool for estimating recruitment, but its complexity, which is essential for addressing the characteristics of the species, makes it difficult to understand and accept by all stakeholders. In the context of the SUDOANG project, we proposed a co-parametrization of this assessment model to tackle this mistrust. Through the use of various questionnaires and appropriate statistical analyses, stakeholders were involved in two important choices for the model (zone definition and prior construction). Regular workshops and presentations were organised to explain the model rationales and to gather feedback and expectations. The results show that stakeholders have very similar perceptions of the potential definitions of sub-areas of recruitment in south-western Europe, and these perceptions are consistent with the underlying environmental conditions. On the other hand, the stakeholders have contrasting opinions about the exploitation rates of fisheries in different river basins, and the use of their knowledge currently has little effect on GEREM estimates. More importantly, the overall approach of this study is thought to have reconstructed the trust and confidence among participants.

The Rasch model is one of the most prominent item response models. In this article, different item parameter estimation methods for the Rasch model are compared through a simulation study. The type of ability distribution, the number of items, and sample sizes were varied. It is shown that variants of joint maximum likelihood estimation and conditional likelihood estimation are competitive to marginal maximum likelihood estimation. However, efficiency losses of limited-information estimation methods are only modest. It can be concluded that in empirical studies using the Rasch model, the impact of the choice of an estimation method with respect to item parameters is almost negligible for most estimation methods. Interestingly, this sheds a somewhat more positive light on old-fashioned joint maximum likelihood and limited information estimation methods.

Karst wetlands are being seriously damaged, and protecting it has become an important matter. Karst vegetation is the essential component of wetland and plays an important role in in the ecological functions of wetland ecosystems. Classifying karst vegetation is important for karst wetlands protection and management. This paper addressed to classify karst vegetation in Huixian National Wetland Park, located in China using the improved SegNet Deep-Learning Algorithm and UAV images. This study proposed a method to fuse single-class SegNet models using the maximum probability algorithm for karst vegetation classification, and compared with object-based RF classification and multi-class SegNet classification, respectively. This paper evaluated the performance of multi-class SegNet model and fusion of single-class SegNet model with different EPOCH values for mapping karst vegetation. A new optimized post-classification algorithm was proposed to eliminate the stitching traces caused by SegNet model prediction. The specific conclusions of this paper include the followings:(1) fusion of four single-class SegNet models produced better classification for karst wetland vegetation than multi-class SegNet model, and achieved the highest overall classification accuracy (87.34%); (2) The optimized post-classification algorithm was able to improve prediction accuracy of SegNet model, and it could eliminate splicing traces; (3) The karst wetland vegetation classifications produced by single-class SegNet model outperformed multi-class SegNet model, and improved classification accuracy(F1-Score) between 10%~25%;(4)The EPCOH values and textural feature important impact on karst wetland vegetation classifications. The SegNet model with EPCOH 15 achieved greater classification accuracy(F1-Score) than the model with EPOCH 5 or 10. The textural feature improved improves the capability of the SegNet model for mapping karst vegetation;(5) Fusion of single-class SegNet models and object-based RF model could provide high classifications results for karst wetland vegetation, and both achieved greater 87% overall accuracy.

Essential oils (EO) are a great antimicrobial resource against bacterial resistance in public health. Math models are useful describing the growth, survival, and inactivation of microorganisms against antimicrobials. We evaluated the antimicrobial activity of M. armillaris EO obtained from plants placed in the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) against Staphylococcus aureus. Minimum Inhibitory and Bactericidal Concentrations were close and decreased slightly acidifying the medium from pH 7.4 to 6.5 and 5.0. This result was also evidenced by applying a sigmoid model, where the time and EO concentration necessaries to achieve 50% of the maximum effect decreased when medium was acidified. Moreover, at pH 7.4, applying the Gompertz model, we found that subinhibitory concentrations of EO decreased the growth rate and the maximum population density, and increased the latency period respect to the control. Additionally, we established physicochemical parameters for quality control and standardization of M. armillaris EO. Mathematical modelling allowed us to estimate key parameters in the behavior of S. aureus and Melaleuca armillaris EO at different pHs. This is interesting in situations where the pH changes are relevant, such as the control of intracellular infections in public health or the development of preservatives for food industry.

The COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the corona-virus strain SARS-CoV-2, is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We define the positivity, boundedness of solutions and basic reproduction number. Then, we study local and global stability and bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Djibouti from 23th March to 10th June, 2020.

p-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD) is not only the useful molecular target in treating life-threatening tyrosinemia type I, but also an important target for chemical herbicides. A combined in silico structure-based pharmacophore and molecular docking based virtual screening were performed to identify novel potential HPPD inhibitors. The complex based pharmacophore model (CBP) with 0.721 of ROC used for screening compound showed remarkable ability to retrieve known active ligands from decoy molecule. The ChemDiv database was screened using CBP-Hypo2 as a 3D query, and the best-fit hits subjected to molecular docking with two methods of LibDock and CDOCKER in Accelrys Discovery Studio 2.5(DS 2.5) to discern interactions with key residues at the active site of HPPD. 4 Compounds with top rank in HipHop model and well-known binding model were finally chosen as identification of lead compounds with potentially inhibitory effects on active site of target. The results provided powerful insight to the development of novel HPPD inhibitors herbicides using computational techniques.

This study aimed to assess the predictive performance of first and second-order regression models in optimizing bedaquiline (BQ) solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) formulations. Employed a central composite design and graphical optimization process using three steps. A design of experiments to evaluate the impact of BQ, Tween 80 (T80), polyethylene glycol (PEG), and lecithin on the formulations' response variables: Z-average (PSD), polydispersibility index (PdI), and Zeta potential (ZP). Secondly, quantified the relationship between experimental variables using the regression model coefficients. Lastly, predicted the responses and verified the models’ adequacies to ensure accurate representation and effective optimization. First-order polynomial showed poor model adequacy that required further refinement. The second-order models provided superior fitness, sensitivity to variability, complexity, and prediction consistency. The optimized formulation achieved a desirability value of 0.9998 indicating alignment with the desired criteria. Specifically, the levels of BQ (19.4mg), T80 (25.2mg), PEG (39.2mg), and Lecithin (200mg) corresponded to PdI (0.41), PSD (250.99 nm), and ZP (-25.95 mV). Maintaining BQ concentration between 10-20% and T80 between 15-18% is vital for maximizing ZP and minimizing PdI and PSD, ensuring stable SLN formulations. The study underscores significance of precise model selection and statistical analysis in pharmaceutical formulation optimization for enhanced drug delivery systems.

Large lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles and energy storage systems demonstrate different performance and lifetime compared to small LIB cells, owing to the size effects generated by the electrical configuration and property imbalance. However, the calculation time for performing life predictions with three-dimensional (3D) cell models is undesirably long. In this paper, a lumped cell model with equivalent resistances (LER cell model) is proposed as a reduced order model of the 3D cell model, which enables accurate and fast life predictions of large LIBs. The developed LER cell model is validated via the comparisons with results of the 3D cell models by simulating a 20-Ah commercial pouch cell (NCM/graphite) and the experimental values. In addition, the LER cell models are applied to different cell types and sizes, such as a 20-Ah cylindrical cell and a 60-Ah pouch cell.

Este estudio empleó el algoritmo MaxEnt para evaluar la distribución potencial de la serpiente de cascabel de cola larga, Crotalus stejnegeri , una especie amenazada endémica de México. Los resultados demuestran una buena fiabilidad del modelo, alcanzando un AUC de 0,879. Destacan una distribución potencial concentrada en las estribaciones de la Sierra Madre Occidental, principalmente en el centro-sur de Sinaloa, suroeste de Durango y norte de Nayarit, caracterizada por bosque seco tropical. La temperatura durante el trimestre más seco y la estacionalidad de la precipitación se identifican como factores determinantes, mientras que la baja idoneidad en Chihuahua sugiere una afinidad tropical de la especie. La variabilidad en las precipitaciones durante el trimestre más frío enfatiza la importancia de ampliar el número de registros de ocurrencia de la especie mediante una mayor exploración de campo dentro de su área de distribución. Estos hallazgos proporcionan información valiosa para los esfuerzos de conservación y subrayan áreas clave para futuras investigaciones.

A modified Nambu{Jona-Lasinio Model with lattice structure is very instructive. It shows several similar problems and their solutions as the Lattice QCD. We study the limits of the large box size, small cell size and realistic pion mass. In particular, we study the relation of the discrete (bound state) solutions to the physical scattering states, for example the pion-pion scattering.

Simple Learning Motivations Hierarchy Model (SLMHM) is a theory that attempts to structure the path of learning “growth” with 16 levels where each next level corresponds to higher aims, motives, results, and satisfaction of needs. The SLMHM has been developed to simplify design, control, and evaluate the learning processes. The SLMHM was first presented at IES-2020 Conference (Gakh, 2020). More detailed research including analysis of internal structure shows that the model should be corrected. The “Plan-Do-Check-Act” cycle (PDCA Cycle) is popular in management. This paper describes the SLMHM improvements based on analyses of its similarities with the PDCA Cycle. The description of this research makes SLMHM more comprehend.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.

Exoskeleton robots have become a promising tool in neurorehabilitation, offering effective physical therapy and recovery monitoring. The success of these therapies relies on precise motion control systems. Although computed torque control based on inverse dynamics provides a robust theoretical foundation, its practical application in rehabilitation is limited by its sensitivity to model accuracy, making it less effective when dealing with unpredictable payloads. To overcome these limitations, this study introduces a novel model reference computed torque controller that accounts for parametric uncertainties while optimizing computational efficiency. A dynamic model of a seven-degree-of-freedom human lower limb exoskeleton is developed, incorporating a realistic joint friction model to accurately reflect the physical behavior of the robot. To reduce computational demands, the control system is split into two loops: a slower loop that predicts joint torque requirements based on input trajectories and robot dynamics, and a faster PID loop that corrects trajectory tracking errors. Coriolis and centrifugal forces are excluded from the model due to their minimal impact on system dynamics relative to their computational cost. Experimental results show high accuracy in trajectory tracking, and statistical analyses confirm the controller’s robustness and effectiveness in handling parametric uncertainties. This approach presents a promising advancement for improving the stability and performance of exoskeleton-based neurorehabilitation.

This article systematically studied the A-optimal designs of a high-order mixture central polynomial model, which is an advancement of the research results for the A-optimal design of the most recent third-order mixture central polynomial model and a more accurate response surface model. This article is based on the simplex center design, obtaining measurement values at various design points, and verifying them through the A-optimal equivalence theorem. We also compare the A-efficiency of designs through examples, which can be applied to the A-optimal precise design of the fourth-order mixture model.

Traumatic Brain Injury represents a significant public health concern due to its role in traumatic death and disability, often caused by head impacts or rapid accelerations. Despite advancements in Finite Element Head Models, existing models primarily represent adult males, neglecting anatomical and physiological differences between genders and age groups. Additionally, the mechanistic roles of specific intracranial tissues, such as the dura mater, have conventionally been overlooked. To better understand the mechanical behavior of the brain and its injured regions in the context of TBI, including the dura mater, this study proposes the development of a Female Finite Element Head Model. This model, representative of a middle-aged female subject, was developed using medical image-derived geometry and finite element modeling techniques. The validation results demonstrate a similarity between the numerical displacement curves and those obtained experimentally. In the model with dura mater, the numerical results show analogous behavior to the experimental results, despite minimal variations in the amplitude of the curves. These advancements highlight the significance of including the dura mater in biomechanical brain modeling. Incorporating the dura mater in Finite Element Head Models produces more realistic results than models without it. This emphasizes the importance of enhancing biomechanical models to better represent anatomical complexity.

Predictions of mean values of statistical variables of large scale turbulent flow by the widely used basic k-ϵ model and a new fundamentally based model are verified against published results of Direct Numerical Simulations DNS of the Navier-Stokes equations. The verification concerns turbulent channel flow at shear Reynolds numbers of 950, 2000 and 104. The basic k-ϵ model is largely based on empirical formulations accompanied by calibration constants. This contrasts with the new model where descriptions of leading statistical quantities are based on the general principles of statistical turbulence at large Reynolds number. Predicted values of major output variables such as turbulent viscosity, diffusivity of passive admixture, temperature, and fluid velocities compare well with DNS in case of the new model. Significant differences are seen in case of the basic k-ϵ model.

In this paper, we consider an epidemiological Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the individuals cured from the infection return back into the group of people endangered by the infection. Delay differential equations were introduced to create more realistic models since many processes depend on past history. Many different mathematical methods, including the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model as well as derivatives thereof, can be used to prognose the spread of many various infectious diseases, including Covid-19.We use a nonlinear differential system with time delay as a mathematical formulation of this model. It is examined by the existence of a positive solution which is bounded by two functions $k_1, k_2\in C([t_0,\infty),(0,\infty))$ with constants $\lambda_1 > 0,\,\lambda_2 > 0$ where $0<\lambda_1\leq \lambda_2$. The conditions are put in place for existence of a positive solution that approaches zero in infinity, if $t\to\infty$. Infectious diseases accompany a person throughout their entire life, and in the history of mankind often appeared in frequent epidemics caused high mortality. The occurrence of infectious diseases in the population represents a serious health, social and economic problem. There is a lot of ambiguity concerning the time span and final spread of the epidemic thus making it very demanding for the governing bodies, healthcare institutions, and economic sector to precisely judge the future development.Several examples are shown at the end of this paper.

Optimal operation of petroleum production is important in a transition from energy systems based on fossil fuel to sustainable systems. One sub-process in petroleum production deals with transport from the (subsea) well-bore to a topside separator. A simple model in [] of Electric Submersible Pump [ESP] lifted production was previously streamlined into a dynamic model suitable for illustration of the dynamics of oil transport, as well for control studies, with some comparison of two popular modeling languages: Modelica, and ModelingToolkit for Julia, []. Here, the discussion on dimensionless equipment models goes into more detail, and the comparison between Modelica and ModelingToolkit is significantly expanded upon with code comparison, numerical performance, and more experiments. Some added possibilities with ModelingToolkit and Julia wrt. sensitivity analysis and control design is included.

Fires are a significant threat to people, property, and environment. One of the requirements for the buildings during fires is ensuring the safe evacuation of persons. The evacuation assessment has usually been based on a comparison of the Required Safe Egress Time (RSET) and the Available Safe Egress Time (ASET). One of the important factors influencing the safe evacuation of persons is smoke, which is an important accompanying phenomenon in the burning of polymers. The smoke layer interface is one basic barrier for effective evacuation. The current calculation technique for assessing the smoke layer interface in the Czech Republic is unsatisfactory. For this reason, a calculation technique CSN has been derived, which has been compared with the selected simple calculation techniques, the zone fire model Consolidated Model of Fire and Smoke Transport (CFAST) and the field type model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The CSN technique was also compared with a real large-scale experiment. The data were also subjected to statistical evaluation using the root mean square error method (RMSE). The deviations between the NFPA, ISO and CSN calculation techniques, the CFAST and FDS fire models and the implemented experiment ranged from 0.05 to 2.41. The established deviations indicate that the calculation technique CSN will be practically usable.

People are drawn to woodcut-style designs due to their striking visual impact and strong contrast. However, traditional woodcut prints and previous computer-aided methods have not addressed the issues of dwindling design inspiration, lengthy production times, and complex adjustment procedures. We propose a novel network framework, the Woodcut-style Design Assistant Network (WDANet), to tackle these challenges. Notably, our research is the first to utilize diffusion models to streamline the woodcut-style design process. We've curated the Woodcut-62 dataset, featuring works from 62 renowned historical artists, to train WDANet in absorbing and learning the aesthetic nuances of woodcut prints, offering users a wealth of design references. Based on a noise reduction network, our dual cross-attention mechanism effectively integrates text and woodcut-style image features. This allows users to input or slightly modify a text description to quickly generate accurate, high-quality woodcut-style designs, saving time and offering flexibility. As confirmed by user studies, quantitative and qualitative analyses show that WDANet outperforms the current state-of-the-art in generating woodcut-style images and proves its value as a design aid.

Seepage erosion is one of the main reasons for the local collapse or instability of embankments. To investigate the characteristics and mechanism of seepage erosion for cohesionless soils, the model tests by using an independently developed seepage erosion device and the numerical simulations based on the Discrete Element Method-Computational Fluid Dynamics (DEM-CFD) coupling model were carried out. The results show that the seepage erosion process of the cohesionless soil can be characterized by four stages: stable seepage stage, fine particles upward migration stage, sand samples boiling stage, and erosion damage stage. The skeleton structure of soil sample under seepage flow is continually changed due to the loss of fine soil particles, which results in a significant decrease in the sample strength and may ultimately lead to the failure of the sample. The results of this study can provide references and bases for the design, construction, and long-term service of embankments or earth dams under the complex seepage condition, reducing the risk of seepage erosion.

This study evaluates the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 using the DEA-SBM model. The nexus between endogenous and exogenous variables is estimated using the Tobit model. The findings reveal an overall increasing trend in agricultural carbon emissions, with significant variations in efficiency values among different cities, leading to a severe polarization. Spatial evaluation shows a high distribution trend in the central region and low in the eastern and western regions of Shandong Province. The empirical tests conducted for Shandong Province and its three regions indicate that urbanization plays a major role in sup-porting the growth of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, while the education level of the la-bor force has a suppressive impact. Economic development and crop cultivation structure, how-ever, have no significant influence. The impact of these variables varies across the eastern, central, and western regions. The proposed countermeasures include improving planting structure and reducing brain drain in the eastern region, strengthening agricultural and rural inputs and in-creasing the added value of agricultural products in the central region, and intensifying the link-age between urbanization and industrial layout in the western region to reduce agricultural car-bon emissions efficiency in Shandong Province.

Is it possible to develop a meaningful measure for the complexity of a simulation model? Algorithmic information theory provides concepts that have been applied in other areas of research for the practical measurement of object complexity. This article offers an overview of complexity from a variety of perspectives and provides a body of knowledge with respect to the complexity of simulation models. Key terms of model detail, resolution, and scope are defined. An important concept from algorithmic information theory, Kolmogorov complexity, and an application of this concept, normalized compression distance, are used to indicate the possibility of measuring changes in model detail. Additional research in this area can advance the modeling and simulation body of knowledge toward the practical application of measuring simulation model complexity. Examples show that KC and NCD measurements of simulation models can detect changes in scope and detail.

Guessing effects frequently occur in testing data in educational or psychological applications. Different item response models have been proposed to handle guessing effects in dichotomous test items. However, it has been pointed out in the literature that the oftenemployed three-parameter logistic model poses implausible assumptions regarding the guessing process. The four-parameter guessing model has been proposed as an alternative to circumvent these conceptual issues. In this article, the four-parameter guessing model is compared with alternative item response models for handling guessing effects through a simulation study and an empirical example. It turned out that model selection for item response models should be rather based on the AIC than the BIC. However, the RMSD item fit statistic used with typical cutoff values was found to be ineffective in detecting misspecified item response models. Furthermore, sufficiently large sample sizes are required for sufficiently precise item parameter estimation. Moreover, it is argued that the criterion of statistical model fit should not be the sole criterion of model choice. The item response model used in operational practice should be valid with respect to the meaning of the ability variable and the underlying model assumptions. In this sense, the four-parameter guessing model could be the model of choice in educational large-scale assessment studies.