Semi-arid Namibia is marginal for agricultural production. Low soil fertility combined with low and variable rainfall restrict the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who often struggle to produce enough food. Although historically communities have adopted a number of coping mechanisms, climate change threatens to further reduce agricultural production. There are many additional options available to smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change, but they are not necessarily adopting these measures despite having noticed increasing temperatures and declining rainfall. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in three villages in Onesi constituency to examine what agricultural practices smallholder crop farmers use, perception of changes in their yields, their perspective on future yields and whether they are planning on changing their agricultural practices. The results suggest that to sustain the livelihoods of rural communities in north-central Namibia support is needed from local and regional authorities, as well as traditional and religious leaders to assist with enhancing access to information, enabling information sharing on adaptation options, and increasing awareness on climate change, it’s impacts and what can be done about it. In addition to this the implementation of adaptation action also requires demonstration sites and building capacity to enable the development of self-help groups.

Statistical mechanics investigates how emergent properties of macroscopic systems (such as temperature and pressure) relate to microscopic state fluctuations. The underlying idea is that global statistical descriptors of order and variability can monitor the relevant dynamics of the whole system at hand. Here we test the possibility of extending such an approach to psychotherapy research investigating the possibility of predicting the outcome of psychotherapy on the sole basis of coarse-grained empirical macro-parameters. Four good-outcome and four poor-outcome brief psychotherapies were recorded, and their transcripts coded in terms of standard psychological categories (abstract, positive emotional and negative emotional language pertaining to patient and therapist). Each patient-therapist interaction is considered as a discrete multivariate time series made of subsequent word-blocks of 150-word length, defined in terms of the above categories. Static analysis (Principal Component Analysis) highlighted a substantial difference between good-outcome and poor-outcome cases in terms of mutual correlations among those descriptors. In the former, the patient’s use of abstract language correlated with therapist’s emotional negative language, while in the latter it co-varied with therapist’s emotional positive language, thus showing the different judgment of the therapists regarding the same variable (abstract language) in poor and good outcome cases. On the other hand, the dynamic analysis, based on five coarse-grained descriptors related to variability, degree of order and complexity of the series, demonstrated a relevant case-specific effect, pointing to the possibility of deriving a consistent picture of any single psychotherapeutic process. Overall, the results showed that the systemic approach to psychotherapy (an old tenet of psychology) is mature to shift from a metaphorical to a fully quantitative status.

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to evaluate the impact of urbanization, climate change, and implementation of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) at the Mahabad Dam watershed, Iran. Several scenarios of urbanization, with and without climate change impacts, in different locations were defined, including near outlet, middle, far end, and whole watershed. Climate change was considered to change the intensity of rainfall and increase evaporation. Vegetative swales were implemented as LIDs to evaluate their applicability to reduce pollutant loads. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the area was input into ArcGIS, and the watershed was delineated using the ArcSWAT extension to identify topographic features. Water quality properties were defined in the software, and each scenario was run for a twelve-hour simulation. The results indicated that urbanization affects the imperviousness of sub-catchments, and location of urbanization affects the amount and timing of runoff and pollutant yields. Fifty-percent urbanization near the watershed outlet resulted in 23.1% and 27.4% increases in runoff and pollutant loads, respectively. Fifty-percent urbanization in the middle resulted in 28.8% and 35.4% increases in runoff and pollutant loads; and, at the far end, 23.1% and 3.9% increases in runoff and pollutant loads were the result; Fifty-percent urbanizing the whole watershed gave 58.6% and 66.3% increases in runoff and pollutant loads, respectively; Under climate change scenarios (higher intensity, shorter duration rainfall) peaks occurred earlier. Moreover, results showed LIDs decreased pollution loads up to 25%.

Cloth wearing seems so natural that everyone is self-deemed knowledgeable and has some expert opinions about it. However to clearly explain the physics involved, and hence to make predictions for clothing design or selection, turns out as demonstrated below to be quite challenging even for experts. Cloth is a multiphased, porous and anisotropic material system and usually in multilayers. Unlike ordinary engineering heat transfer problems, the human body acts as an internal heat source in a clothing situation, thus forming a temperature gradient between body and ambient, and the sign of this gradient often changes as the ambient temperature varies. Our body also perspires and the sweat evaporates, an effective body cooling process via phase change. To bring all the variables into analysis quickly escalates into a formidable task. This work attempts to unravel the problem from a physics perspective, focusing on several rarely noticed yet critically important mechanisms involved so as to offer a clear and accurate depiction of the principles in clothing thermal comfort.

1) Background: Climate change may subject forests to climate conditions to which they are not adapted. Elevated temperatures reduce net photosynthesis by increasing respiration rates and increasingly long droughts dramatically increase morbidity. CO₂ enrichment enhances productivity, but it is not clear to what extent CO₂ enrichment can offset the negative effects of elevated temperatures and longer droughts. 2) Methods: We used a mechanistic landscape model to conduct controlled simulation experiments manipulating CO₂ concentration, temperature, drought length and soil water capacity. 3) Results: We found that elevated CO₂ stimulates productivity such that it dwarfs the negative effect caused by elevated temperature. Energy reserves were not as strongly mitigated by elevated CO₂, and mortality of less competitive cohorts increased. Drought length had a surprisingly small effect on productivity measures, but had a marked negative effect on mortality risk. 4) Conclusions: Elevated CO₂ compensated for the negative effect of longer droughts in terms of productivity measures, but not survival measures.

The hybrid personal cooling system (HPCS) consisted of ventilation fans and phase change materials (PCMs) covered with insulation pads is a promising wearable cooling system to mitigate heat strain and heat-related illnesses of occupational workers with heavy labor in hot environments. Effects of clothing characteristics (e.g., thermal resistance of insulation pads, latent heat and melting temperature of PCMs) on the thermal performance of the HPCS have been investigated in detail in our previous study. Apart from the aforementioned factors, environmental conditions, i.e., environmental temperature and relative humidity, also significantly affect the thermal performance of the HPCS. In this paper, a numerical parametric study was performed to investigate the effects of the environmental temperature and relative humidity (RH) on the thermal management of the HPCS. Five levels of air temperature under environmental RH=50% were chosen (i.e., 32, 34, 36, 38 and 40 ºC) to study the impact of environmental temperature on the HPCS’s cooling performance. In addition, four levels of environmental RH at ambient temperatures of 36 and 40 ºC were selected (i.e., 30, 50, 70 and 90%) to examine the effect of RH on cooling performance of the HPCS. Results show that high environmental temperatures could accelerate the PCM melting process and thereby weaken the cooling performance of HPCS. In the moderately hot environment (36 °C), the HPCS presented good cooling performance with the maximum core temperature at around 37.5 °C during excise when the ambient RH≤70%, whereas good cooling performance could be only seen under RH≤50% in the extremely hot environment (40 °C). Thus, it may be concluded that the maximum environmental RH for the HPCS exhibiting good cooling performance decreases with the increase in the environmental temperature.

Abstract: Changes in forest landscapes have been connected with human activity for centuries, which can be considered as one of the main driving forces of change in the global perspective. The spatial distribution of forests changes along with the geopolitical situation, demographic changes, intensification of agriculture, urbanization or changes in the land use policy. However, due to the limited availability of historical data, the driving forces of changes in forest landscapes are most often considered in relation to recent decades, without taking into account long-term analyzes. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of natural and socio-economic factors on changes in forest landscapes within the protected area – Ślęża Landscape Park and its buffer zone in the aspect of long-term analyzes covering the period of 140 years (1883-2013). The comparison of historical and current maps, demographic data on 4 different periods as well as natural and location factors by using the ArcGIS software allowed analyzing selected driving forces of forest landscape transformations. We took into account natural factors like altitude, slope, exposure of the hillside and socio-economic drivers like population changes, distances to centers of municipalities, main roads and built-up areas.

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

The micropaleontological study (radiolarians and foraminifera) of the sediment core AMK-340, Reykjanes Ridge, North Atlantic, combined with the radiocarbon dating and Oxygen/Carbon isotopic record, provided data for the reconstruction of the summer paleotemperature on the water depth of 100 m, and paleoenvironments during the Termination I in the age interval of 14.5–8 ka. The response of the main microfossil species on the paleoceanographic changes within the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warming, the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event, and final transition to the warm Holocene was different. The BA warming was well reflected in the radiolarian and benthic but not planktic foraminiferal record. The high abundances of the cold-water radiolarian species Amphimelissa setosa as the Greenland/Iceland Sea indicator marked a cooling at the end of the BA and within the start of the YD at 13.2–12.3 ka. The micropaleontological and isotopic data together with the paleotemperature estimates for the Reykjanes Ridge at 60° N document that, after the warm BA, the middle YD ca. 12.5–12.2 ka was the next significant step toward the Holocene warming. Start of the Holocene interglacial conditions was reflected in abundant occurrence of the microfossils being indicators of the open boreal North Atlantic environments and lower oxygen isotope values indicating increasing warmth.

General characteristics of K changes together with their fine structure associated with ground flashes in Sri Lanka in the tropics are presented. It is found that on average there are about 2 K changes associated with each return stroke. Analysis of the fine structure of the K changes shows that the K change is a chaotic pulse burst. Some of these chaotic pulse bursts start and the others end as a regular pulse bursts. Sometimes the chaotic part occurs in between two regular pulse bursts. This is in agreement with the recent published results that claim that chaotic pulse bursts are a random superposition of regular pulse bursts. The results show that the small step fields identified in the literature as K changes are the static fields associated with these pulse bursts.

Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings expand knowledge about innovation-urban climate mitigation as understood by Dhaka-based entrepreneurs: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and competing understandings of vulnerability. Third, even the most technical climate adaptation measures were inherently political in their application. We discuss how to better position urban climate innovation infrastructures in Bangladesh and beyond, including developing a better recognition of innovation lifecycles for urban climate adaptation and widening our definitions of ‘innovation’ to better incorporate more effective and inclusive climate adaptation solutions.

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

Land degradation a serious and nationwide environmental concern in Ethiopia. The problem is its iterative relationship between land degradation, climate change, and agriculture, exacerbating one another via negative and positive feedback loops. Due to the need for an efficient response to land degradation in the country, different sustainable land management practices have been implemented since the late 1980s. The objective of this study was to analyze land degradation neutrality status using remote sensing data in the study area. We have studied the land degradation neutrality conditions of the North Wello Zone by using indicators data, namely land cover change, land productivity dynamics, and soil organic carbon stock. The result shows that the settlement areas consistently expanded at the fifth speed (2010-2018) from 1995 to 2010. Between 1995 and 2010, forestland declined by 18 percent, while an increasing trend of 26.8 percent from 2010 to 2018. The assessment results also indicate that 52.8 percent of the total area is stable and characterized by less stressed land productivity. The soil organic carbon is comparatively abundant in the high and midland vegetation areas but very thin in lowland areas. Most of the highland and midland parts of the study areas are in the conditions of stable and increasing land productivity with high biomass and soil organic content. However, most lowland areas showed a decline in land productivity conditions.

In contrast to animals, adult organs in plants are not determined during embryogenesis but gen-erated from meristematic cells as plants advance through development. Plant development in-volves a succession of different phenotypic stages and the transition between these stages is termed phase transition. Phase transitions need to be tightly regulated and coordinated to ensure they occur under optimal seasonal, environmental conditions. Polycarpic perennials transition through vegetative stages and the mature, reproductive stage many times during their lifecycles and, in both perennial and annual species, environmental factors and culturing methods can re-verse the otherwise unidirectional vector of plant development. Epigenetic factors regulating gene expression in response to internal cues and external (environmental) stimuli influencing the plant’s phenotype and development have been shown to control phase transitions. How develop-mental and environmental cues interact to epigenetically alter gene expression and influence these transitions are not well understood and understanding this interaction is important considering the current climate change scenarios, since epigenetic maladaptation could have catastrophic con-sequences for perennial plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Here we review studies focussing on the epigenetic regulators of the vegetative phase change and highlight how these mechanisms might act in exogenously induced plant rejuvenation and regrowth following stress.

The Residential and Industrial zones as is, rely heavily, if not exclusively, on Hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon thermal machinery such as Spark Ignition-Compression Ignition engines, Gasoline-Diesel generators, Coal-Lignite gasifiers, residential diesel-powered heating systems, Pyrolysis units and so on, are commonly met all around the planet. Such technology practically oxidizes Hydrocarbons to produce either heat, steam or useful mechanical work depending on the application, though energy losses are not, by any means, insignificant. Advanced material processing is an industrial sector who’s energy demand is significant and it is important for the general public to come to terms with the fact that by implementing Hydrogen technology to power such plant while at the same time improving the energy equilibrium of houses(advanced materials), communities would be taking major steps towards Climate Change effects debilitation. The downside of Hydrocarbon thermochemical exploitation can be described by the limited resources-reserves and the gaseous pollutant emissions (CO2, CO, NOx, SOx). In recent years, the Industrial zone as a whole has began taking a turn towards Electrification without having established the necessary infrastructure to support such a transition. Indicatively, at current rate of production, dead Lithium-Ion batteries are projected to reach as high as 11,000 metric tons by 2030, yet there is no recycling scheme in place, not to mention the prospect of that number rising even more, given the recent e-mobility trend. As it pertains to Electrification, such powertrains-machinery require electricity and a battery. Electricity production is mainly achieved through Coal-Lignite gasification, Batteries require metals, among others, for manufacturing, meaning that up-on mining, local water resources are contaminated, another very important ‘aspect’ of Lithium(per say) mining is that child labor is often associated with such processes, a truly despicable act. All of the above paint a crystal-clear picture as to how ‘environmentally friendly’ reckless-rushed Electrification really is. Climate Change is up-on us and it’s effects on the planet are obvious, the most important of which is glacier melting due to rising of the global Temperature. The COVID-19 crisis is a sign of what could come from glacier melting could as ice contains potentially harmful-toxic to humans, biological entities that are sure to be introduced to the general public if we were to continue exploiting mineral resources. Purpose of this paper is to provide a general overview of the technology around Hydrogen.

Leclère et al.¹ have outlined the possibility of a biodiversity transition for the 21^st century, a line of thinking equivalent to the Forest Transition theory and what it says about forest cover globally². The authors use a suite of global models to explore the impacts on global biodiversity of interventions on land-use, consumption and production patterns. They outline six strategies that have the potential to stop the downfall of global terrestrial biodiversity by 2050 and redress it to a pre-1970 level by 2100. Although robust, sophisticated and well-illustrated, the conclusions of this paper cannot alone be used to frame a post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Land use/cover (LULC) change is one of the most important environmental phenomena that have affected the earths’ systems and its ecosystem services. Hence, this study was conducted with the main objective of assessing LULC change, its drivers andimpactson ecosystem services in Jimma Rare district for the year 1974–2019. In order to understand the spatial and temporal changes of LULC and its drivers four satellite images for the year1974, 1991, 2005 and 2019 were obtained and respondent interviews, focus group discussions (FGD) and field observations were employed. Moreover, the ecosystem service value coefficients developed at a global level were used to assess the impacts of LULC on ecosystem service provision of the study area. The results of the study revealed that grass land and forest land decreased from 4518.87ha (13.09%) to 902.42ha (2.61%) and 3287.79ha (9.52%) to 2506.63ha (7.26%) from 1974-2019 respectively. Similarly, wetland declined from1182.08ha (3.42%) to 562.37ha (1.63%) in the stated period.The greatest expansion of cultivated land and settlement area occurred during the year 1974-1991. Agricultural expansion, deforestation, overgrazing and expansion of rural and urban settlement were among the major proximate causes. Likewise, the major underlying drivers of LULC dynamics include population increase, the presence of weak policy and institutions, poverty and lack of awareness were identified by respondents and focus group discussants. The total natural capital value reduced from 662.75 (million $/ha/yr) to 577.03 (million $/ha/yr) in the study period indicating the impacts of LULC on ecosystem services. From this study, it is possible to conclude that Jimma Rare District has experienced a significant change in LULC and ecosystem service values over the past 45 years. Hence, appropriate policy packages of land use are required to curb the negative impacts of such changes in the study district in the provision of the required services for sustainable development.

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

The goal of Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme is to support sustainable development through effective management, innovative technologies, policy suggestion and governance. Today, the concept of Biosphere Reserves plays an important role in scientific investigations, generating knowledge, and experiences to link socio-economic development and biodiversity conservation for human well-being. This research, through an independent study which takes place in the Hungarian Biosphere Reserves of Pilis and Kiskunság aims at identifying practical sustainable business models which are suitable for supporting livelihood of locals. In this research, the two Biosphere Reserves serve as the learning sites under the light of global principles and state-of-the-art-of knowledge on sustainable development and sustainable business models. To do so, the state-of-the-art-of sustainable business model has been investigated through a comprehensive academic research. The lessons that learned from this investigation are used to support the data gathering method and planning the field trips to identify the sustainable business models currently in use at the Biosphere Reserves. This research particularly had been interested in small-sized sustainable business models practiced by small communities or families in various zones of Biosphere Reserves. First set of interviews and questionnaires designed to identify the business models in practice. The results identify foraging the wild plants in the buffer zone and transition areas as a potential sustainable business model in practice. Further interviews and surveys were conducted with foragers shows the beneficial of their practice on the local ecosystem and in increasing awareness on the deep connection with the ecosystems. The sustainable business model of foraging in addition to providing a sustainable livelihood for the locals maintains a spiritual connection between people and land. The identified sustainable business model can further be educational and practical for other 685 biosphere reserves.

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

Timely and accurate identification of change detection for areas depicted on nautical charts constitutes a key task for marine cartographic agencies in supporting maritime safety. Such a task is usually achieved through manual or semi-automated processes, based on best practices developed over the years requiring a substantial level of human commitment (i.e., to visually compare the chart with the new collected data or to analyze the result of intermediate products). This work describes an algorithm that aims to largely automate the change identification process as well as to reduce its subjective component. Through the selective derivation of a set of depth points from a nautical chart, a triangulated irregular network is created to apply a preliminary tilted-triangle test to all the input survey soundings. Given the complexity of a modern nautical chart, a set of feature-specific, point-in-polygon tests are then performed. As output, the algorithm provides danger-to-navigation candidates, chart discrepancies, and a subset of features that requires human evaluation. The algorithm has been successfully tested with real-world electronic navigational charts and survey datasets. In parallel to the research development, a prototype application implementing the algorithm was created and made publicly available.

Lake Chapala is a natural ecosystem of Mexico, declared Ramsar site, currently, is an area with importance in the agricultural sector, tourism, and important source of drinking water in the Metropolitan area of Guadalajara, considered as a thermo regulatory body. This study used tools such as Rhtest, as well as analyzing extreme climate indices using RClimdex. In addition, the relationship with the change in water surface of Lake Chapala was assessed through the NDWI index, using Landsat images, between 1985 and 2018. According to the obtained results, the signs of climatic variability are detected in the study region, which, directly affects the basin runoff and water levels in the lake, as well as, the factor of water overexploitation in the basin, so it is considered that the lake conditions mostly depend on the type of management that is given to the resource. Finally, the results will help the understanding of climate variability and its water resources influence of the Lerma Chapala basin, which will assist in future research.

The polynomial functional specification is widely used in environmental and ecological economics. When different powers of the same variable enter to the specification the elasticity of explained variable with respect to that variable should be obtained using the elasticity formula. Since, in this case the elasticity itself is a function, one need to calculate it at a certain point, to have a general idea about the response of explained variable to the change in explanatory variable. The mainly used point is mean of the variables entering to the elasticity formula. Sometimes, the minimum and maximum points also used for comparison purposes. One should careful in interpreting the response of explanatory variable to the change in the variable entering to the specification with its different powers. This study revisits some methodological points regarding the calculation and interpretation of responses in the above-mentioned cases.

In the last decades droughts, deforestation and wildfires have become recurring phenomena that have affected both human activities and natural ecosystems in Amazonia. The time an ecosystem requires to recover from carbon losses is a crucial metric to evaluate disturbance impacts on forests. However, the factors influencing and controlling the recovery time and its spatiotemporal patterns at the regional scale are still poorly understood. In this study, we combined forest growth model, remote sensing and field plots, to map Amazonia-wide (300-ha resolution) impact and recovery time of aboveground biomass (AGB) after drought, fire and a combination of logging and fire. Our simulated results indicate that AGB decreases by 4%, 19% and 46% in forests disturbed by drought, fire and logging + fire, respectively, with an average AGB recovery time of 27 years for drought, 44 years for burned and 63 years for logged + burned areas and with maximum values reaching 184 years in areas of high fire intensity. Our findings provide two major insights in the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and wildfire in the Amazon: 1) the recovery time of the forests takes longer in the southeastern part of the basin, and, 2) as droughts and wildfires become more frequent – since the intervals between the disturbances is getting shorter than forest regeneration – potentially causing a long-lasting damage in these fragile ecosystems and a permanent degradation.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

Frequent flooding from sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the immediate climate change impacts affecting low-lying and exposed coastal communities. These communities rely upon the delivery of three-waters services for wastewater, stormwater and water supply. Due to ongoing SLR, managing these networks will increasingly be a challenge. This raises the issue of how local government can reconcile maintaining levels of service as the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties worsen over the coming decades (and beyond). Can they be adapted over time to retain levels of service or will they eventually require retreat and if so at what adaptation threshold? This paper explores managed retreat of two-waters infrastructure (wastewater and stormwater) as an adaptation option using a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) approach. In the study, we use DAPP to frame the retreat of two-water networks, developing a combination of an area specific retreat strategy, pathway portfolios, retreat phases, land use change signaling and identify pathway conflicts and synergies. Repurposing retreated areas by utilizing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) options was found to extend retreat thresholds for adjacent areas. A systematic ’routine’ developed in this study provides a structured approach for managed retreat of two-water infrastructure with the aim to reduce future disruption from flooding, signal land use changes early and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies to manage expenditure over time. This approach helps inform and improve the decision-making process for the agencies and the communities they serve, by providing a stepwise process that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat adaptation option more manageable.

Climate change has emerged as one of the defining issues of the early 21st century. It is now more certain than ever and poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development. Climate change has many destructive effects on cities. Land subsidence, rising air pollutants, severe storms, dust and water scarcity are just some effects of this phenomenon in the urban area of ​​Tehran. Urban management must be prepared to deal with these effects and adopt policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. One of these tools in urban planning is urban development plans. The plans can have a great impact on controlling and counteracting with the effects of climate change. In this research, using content analysis method, 6 dimensions and 31 indicators have been used to evaluate 8 city and region development plans of Tehran from the view of reflecting the effects of climate change. Indicators were scored after studying the content of the plans. Findings indicate that among the reviewed plans, the second and third five-year development plans of Tehran with 61.9% and 61.3% as the highest rate and plan to reduce air pollution in Tehran and the transportation master plan with 20.6% and 23.2%, respectively have the least attention to the effects of climate change. Also, among the indicators, the urban transportation sector with 54.3% as the highest and the energy sector with 20.5% have the least attention to mitigation and adaptation policies.

The negative implications of climate change for human health are now well-established. Yet these have not been fully considered into climate change communication strategies. Research suggests that reorienting climate change communication with a health frame could be a useful communication strategy. We conducted a long-term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in order to summarize the state of research activity in this area, by extent and by nature. The methodology is based on a scoping review of scientific articles published on climate change communication and health between 1990 and mid-2016 indexed in the PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science databases. The screened citations were reviewed for inclusion and data were extracted and coded in order to conduct quantitative (e.g. frequencies) and qualitative (i.e. content analysis) analyses.Out of 2,866 identified published papers, only 24 articles were eligible for analyses. The main themes identified were effective communication of climate change (n=10, 41.7%), the role of health professionals (n=10, 41.7%) and the perception of climate change (n=4, 16.7%). We identified a large proportion of secondary research articles (n= 15, 62.5%) including reviews (n=5, 20.8%) and opinion articles (n=10, 41.7%). A significant share - 37.57% (n=9) - of the identified articles were classified as original research articles, suggesting that the number of publications in this area - particularly original research - has not grown rapidly.This scoping review identified several themes including effective communication of climate change, the role of health professionals, and the perception of climate change in the selected articles on the subject. The research literature on the communication of climate change and health is relatively recent and emerging: the first articles on the subject were published from 2008 onward only.

Students are often portrayed as future leaders. Their participation in climate change mitigation would improve when they access climate information and gain a high level of climate change awareness. This study was initiated to assess the Congolese students’ awareness of climate change by focusing on their sources of information on climate change, knowledge about the causes and impacts of climate change and activities that can raise awareness on climate change. Using a convenience sampling technique, we collected data through individual interviews conducted among 1,278 students from 13 universities across the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The interview results showed that all students irrespective of their disciplines were concerned about climate change, a phenomenon strongly driven by human activities, such as deforestation (78%), urbanisation (30%), agriculture activities (30%) and transport services (26%). The students’ perceptions of climate change impacts included increase in temperature (82%), decrease in the number of rainy days (66%), proliferation of pests (60%) and increase in the number of malaria patients (39%). The primary sources of information that significantly affected students’ awareness of climate change included environment-related university courses and television broadcasts. The awareness-raising and mitigation actions related to climate change recommended by the students included educating people about good waste management (56%), planting trees (65%) and using the taxes paid by mining companies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems. The students believed that in DRC, all layers of the society (educational institutions, civil society organisations, community members and businesses) are important in building resilience to climate change. This study can guide teachers to focus their educational efforts on shaping pro-environmental behaviour in students.

To assess the presence of organochlorine pollutants (OCP) in Alaskan sub-Arctic latitudes, we analyzed ice core and meltwater samples from Jarvis Glacier, a polythermal glacier in Interior Alaska. Jarvis Glacier is receding as atmospheric warming continues throughout the region, increasing opportunity for OCP transport both englacially and into the proglacial watershed. Across all meltwater and ice core samples we identify the pesticides DDT, DDE and DDD, α- HCH and ϒ-HCH. OCP concentrations in ice core samples were highest at the 7-14 m depth (0.51 ng/L of DDT) and decreased gradually approaching the bedrock at 79m. Meltwater concentrations from the proglacial creek slightly exceeded concentrations found in the ice core, potentially indicating aggregate OCP glacial loss, with peak OCP concentration (1.12 ng/L of DDD) taken in July and potentially associated to peak melt. Ongoing use of DDT to fight Malaria in Asia, and the extended atmospheric range of HCH may account for concentrations in near-surface ice, correlating with use and atmospheric transport. The opportunity for biota bioaccumulation of OCPs, or human uptake of OCPs from glacial meltwater, may increase as glacial melt continues.

Accompanied by increasing population growth and urban sprawl, most coastal cities are unprecedentedly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts, such as sea level rise, increasing extreme storm events, and coastal flooding. Coastal resilience and sustainable development are antidotes to vulnerability; they aim to enhance the adaptive capability of absorbing disturbances and resisting uncertainty. This study explores building a quantitative assessment framework to measure resilience and provide an objective and comparable method to understand the strengths and weaknesses in a given region. The proposed 25 resilience indicators incorporate the aspects of essential livelihood protection, infrastructure and natural resource maintenance, emergency facilities and institutions, floodplain management regulations, and adaptive planning process. Each indicator is assigned the resilience quality that includes robustness, resourcefulness, redundancy, and rapidity. The aggregated resilience quality scoring reflects the systematic performance of the city to cope with the coastal hazards. The innovative part of this framework is combining hazard mitigation measures, climate adaptation strategies, and sustainable development goals together to achieve a comprehensive assessment method. In the case of New Haven, the resilience assessment is taken as a practical monitoring tool and decision-making support.

We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States to provide spatially-explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981-2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040-2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect & disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100km² hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21^st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.

Abstract: A large number of collecting expeditions were launched in regions of ‘centers of diversity’ and hundreds of thousands of sample have been collected and stored in gene banks as ‘genetic resources’. So far, only a small number of the samples have been evaluated for their biotic and abiotic stress tolerance. Now, their time to become useful has come. A new global phenomenon has arisen – climate change. The crop genetic resources and their wild progenitors that have survived countless years of changing environment during the last 11,000 years could harbor genes that may be useful under the new growing conditions and environmental factors thrown up by climate change and global warming. With the deployment of modern bio-engineering techniques selected genes or gene fragments can be transferred from genetic resources to modern varieties of crop plants to make them well-prepared to mitigate the effects of global warming and climate change. The latter is the most serious issue facing plant breeders today. New pests and diseases could affect crop production. These review paper discusses various impacts and issues as a result of this phenomenon and suggest ways to safeguard our most important crops through better management of crop plant genetic resources in the near future.

An opinion dependent cross sectional survey was conducted among charland peoples of Noakhali, Bangladesh with a view to identify the factors that affect green economy. Nijhumdwip Island and Tamaruddi union are highly affected by cyclone and soil salinity. Unpredictable rainfall is the most acute in Nijhumdwip. Lack of information the main problem in Nijhumdwip Island. Farmers are found less interest in integrated farming and crop diversification. Few farmers from Sonadia Union are involved in homestead gardening. Regression analysis have shown a negative relationship (p<0.001) between education of stockholders and decrease of crop production. On the other hand education level of stockholders is to be found positively (p<0.05) varied with decrease of food insecurity. So it can be said that educated farmers are more adaptive against climate change.

The TanDEM-X mission is acquiring a new dataset to provide a temporally independent DEM, called "TanDEM-X Change DEM". This set of acquisitions taken between 2017 and 2020 has a clear temporal separation to the TanDEM-X global DEM data which were acquired between 2010 and 2015. Therefore, this new DEM aims to enable the characterization of terrain changes. Improvements in the acquisition planning and the data processing were necessary to generate this Change DEM with fewer acquisitions but still very high accuracy. For this, the use of an edited TanDEM-X DEM as a "starting point" for the interferometric processing is mandatory.

Remote sensing/GIS techniques are a versatile tool for x-raying serial forest structural changes in retrospect. It would be impossible to evaluate past occurrences and changes in forest extents in past decades at Effan Forest Reserve without non-conventional means. Therefore, we adopted remote sensing technology using Landsat images to evaluate land-use change and degradation rates in the area with a view to ascertaining causal factors for possible minimization of forest degradation in Effan Forest Reserve. Land-use/land-cover changes were analyzed using USGS-Landsat TM and ETM images of 1987, 2002, 2014 and 2019. Field-data were collected using handheld GPS receiver and spatial statistical analyses were conducted using the ground control points (GCPs). For inventory data, a systematic sampling technique was adopted using ten 1.05 km-transects at 500 m intervals. A total of 50 sample plots of 50 × 50 m were used. All tree species with Dbh ≥10 cm were enumerated. Nineteen tree species in ten families were encountered with Vitellaria paradoxa as the most-frequently occurring species in the area. IUCN-listed endangered Pterocarpus erinaceus, hitherto abundant in the area, was rarely encountered during the survey, while Vitellaria paradoxa is gradually shrinking, going the relative abundance in the area. The result further showed that primary and secondary forests decreased considerably by 258.03 ha (46.72%) and 9.18 ha (3.63%), respectively, with a total forest loss of 50.3% in 32 years (8.4 hayr-1, 1.6% per annum). While forest plantation size doubled by 369.72 ha within the period. This is worrisome as the remaining fragmented forests appeared to be on the decline, except the riparian vegetation, due to inaccessibility to the riparian by loggers. It thus appeared that forest protection approaches were ineffective. Increased protection efforts could save this forest reserve, and the concerned authority should consider a focused-enrichment planting involving indigenous species for ecosystem-repair.

The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961‒1990, using a gridded observational data (E-OBS), and, subsequently, for the periods 2011‒2040 (short-range) and 2041‒2070 (medium-range) using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong(weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing(increasing) trends for precipitation(temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041‒2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.

The impact of ponds on basins has recently started to receive its well–deserved scientific attention. In this study, pond–induced impacts on soil erosion and sediment transport were investigated at the scale of the French Claise basin. In order to determine erosion and sediment transport patterns under current conditions, the CORINE erosion and SWAT models were used. The impact of ponds on the studied processes was revealed by means of land cover change scenarios, using ponded versus pondless inputs. Results show that under current conditions (pond presence), 12.48% of the basin corresponds to no–erosion risk zones (attributed to the dense pond network), while 65.66% corresponds to low–erosion risk, 21.68% to moderate–erosion risk and only 0.18% to high–erosion risk zones. The SWAT model revealed that ponded sub–basins correspond to low sediment yields areas, in contrast to the pondless sub–basins, which yield appreciably higher erosion rates. Under the alternative scenario, erosion risks shifted to 1.12%, 0.52%, 76.8% and 21.56% for no, low, moderate and high–erosion risks, respectively, while the sediment transport pattern of the Claise completely shifted to higher sediment yield zones. This approach solidifies ponds as powerful man–induced modifications to hydro/sedimentary processes.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

Lettuce is a salt-sensitive crop and has a threshold electrical conductivity of 1.3–2.0 mS cm-1 and above that is considered detrimental. As there has been very little information on the physio-logical response of different critical stages of lettuce under different salt stress (SS), the current study is focused on investigating the effects of SS on the critical physiological traits influencing the carbon assimilation in different growth stages of lettuce. The experiment was conducted in deep-water culture hydroponic system in a greenhouse condition. Four levels of sodium chloride salt treatments (EC: 20, 16, 8, and 1.8 mS cm-1) were applied. During both growth stages (day 11 (GS1) and day 19 (GS2) after salt treatment), the leaf transpiration rate, stomatal conductance, and intercellular CO2 were severely decreased. However, the carbon assimilation rate remained unchanged under SS. Similarly, the water use efficiency increased under the SS. It is concluded that the increasing SS increased stomatal and non-stomatal limiting factors during GS1 suggesting the enhanced limitation in photosynthetic activity while no such trend was observed during GS2. The decreased gm with increased SS at GS1 and GS2 suggested that SS induced the irreversible decrease of gm, which in turn can be responsible for the transient reduction in the Vcmax and Jmax during GS2. Taken together, the evidence from this research recommends that varying the SS levels can significantly affect the physiological performance of lettuce at both growth stages.

Weeds are among the major constraints to any crop production system, reducing productivity and profitability. Herbicides are among the most effective methods to control weeds, and reliance on herbicides for weed control has increased significantly with the advent of herbicide-resistant crops. Unfortunately, over-reliance on herbicides leads to environmental-health issues and herbicide-resistant weeds, causing human-health and ecological concerns. Crop diversification can help manage weeds sustainably in major crop production systems. It acts as an organizing principle under which technological innovations and ecological insights can be combined to manage weeds sustainably. Diversified cropping can be defined as the conscious inclusion of functional biodiversity at temporal and/or spatial levels to improve the productivity and stability of ecosystem services. Crop diversification helps to reduce weed density by negatively impacting weed seed germination and weed growth. Additionally, diversified farming systems are more resilient to climate change than monoculture systems and provide better crop yield. However, there are a few challenges to adopting a diversified cropping system, which ranges from technology innovations, government policies, farm-level decisions, climate change, and market conditions. In this review, we discuss how crop diversification supports sustainable weed management, the challenges associated with it, and the future of weed management with respect to the diversification concept.

Due to rising global warming and climate change, biodiversity protection has become a critical ecological concern. The rich biodiversity zones are under threat and are deteriorating, necessitating national, regional, and provincial efforts to safeguard these natural areas. The effective conservation of National Parks and Nature-protected Areas helps to improve biodiversity conservation, forest, and urban air quality. The continuous encroachment and abuse of these protected areas have degraded the ecosystem over time. While exploring the geophysical ecology and biodiversity conservation of these areas in West Africa, Kainji National Park was selected for this study because of its notable location, naturalness, rich habitat diversity, topographic uniqueness, and landmass. The conservation of national parks and nature-protected areas is a cornerstone of biodiversity conservation globally. This study is aimed at the target of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13, 2030- Climate Action, targeted at taking urgent action towards combating climate change and its impacts. The study captures both flora and fauna that are dominant in the study area. The 15 identified tree species were selected from over 30 species with 563,500,000 (an average of 3,700,000 in each sample frame) trees for every tree species/type with a total of 63% tree green canopy cover. The study areas divided into three zones were randomly sampled within a stratum of 25x25km frames divided into 150 sample frames for proper analyses using the i-Tree Eco v6.0.23. The following microclimatic data were captured and analyzed; photosynthetically active radiation, rain/precipitation, temperature, transpiration, evaporation, water intercepted by trees, avoided a runoff by trees, potential evaporation by trees, isoprene and monoterpene by trees. This study also further discusses the tree benefits of a green, low carbon, and sustainable environment within the context of biodiversity conservation considering carbon storage, carbon sequestration, hydrology effects, pollution removal, oxygen production, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). There is a quick need for remotely-sensed information about the protected areas at regular intervals and government policies must be strict against illegal poaching, logging activities and other hazardous human impacts.

The agricultural sector provides employment and income to the majority of Myanmar's population. The sector, however, is extremely susceptible to severe weather, rising temperatures, and changes in precipitation. This paper aims to analyze how vulnerable Myanmar's agricultural sector is to climate change and highlights the key sectors that are most at risk. This report also examines historical climate information, and the anticipated effects of climate change on Myanmar's agricultural sectors. In-depth literature reviews and summaries of Myanmar's climate change adaptation efforts are included in the report, along with recom-mendations for targeted, locally appropriate actions to strengthen the country's agricultural sector's resilience. Additionally, the study reviews Myanmar's in-stitutional framework for climate action and government priorities for adaptation measures, emphasizes the urgent need for climate action in Myanmar's agricul-ture sectors and calls for more research and development efforts on the effects of climate change on rural livelihoods and agriculture.

The investigation of submerged speleothems for sea level studies has made significant contributions to the understanding of the global and regional sea level variations during the Middle and Late Quateranry. This has been especially the case for the Mediterranean Sea, where more than 300 submerged speleothems sampled in 32 caves have been analysed so far. Here, we present a comprehensive review of the results obtained from the study of submerged speleothems since 1978. The studied speleothems cover the last 1.4 Ma and are focused mainly on Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 2, 3, 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 and 7.5. Results reveal that submerged speleothems represent extraordinary archives providing accurate information on former sea level changes, also considering that the Mediterranean Sea is devoid of any tropical corals since the Miocene. New results from a stalagmite collected at Palinuro (Campania, Italy) characterized by marine overgrowth are also reported. The measured elevations of speleothems are contaminated by the local response to glacial- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA), and thus might significantly deviate from the global eustatic signal. Age and altitude comparation between Mediterranean speleothems, flowstone from Bahamas with local GIA provide a new scenario for MIS 5 and 7 sea level reconstrutions.

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin, under conditions of climate change. The modeling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low streamflow conditions, compared to a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of surface water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region: maximum licensed withdraw, 50 % authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increase of water use, and maximum water withdraw year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increase of water use, to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modeling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand.

To understand lung damage caused by COVID-19, we deduced two-phase lung damage mechanisms. After the lungs are infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus, the affected lung tissue swells and surface properties of pulmonary capillaries change, resulting in an increased flow resistance of affected capillaries. If a sufficient number of capillaries are affected by the infection, the swelling and increased cell wall adhesion collectively raise pulmonary vascular resistance. The increased vascular resistance further increases the dwell times of WBCs in affected capillaries and nearly capillaries. When pulmonary pressure is sufficiently higher, WBCs are forced to squeeze into interstitial spaces or alveolar spaces when local pressures are higher than what the capillaries can withstand. When more and more WBCs are dynamically retained, the flow resistance of more capillaries rises, pulmonary vascular resistance rises, and pulmonary pressure rises. The rise in the pulmonary pressure in turn results in elevated capillary pressures. When capillary pressures around the alveoli are sufficiently high, they cause interstitial pressures to change from normally negative values to positive values. The positive pressures cause fluid leakage to the alveolar space and thus degrade lung function. Tissue swelling, and occupation of WBCs in interstitial spaces and alveolar spaces further reduce compressible volume, and thus cause further rise in the pulmonary vascular resistance and pulmonary pressure. When the pulmonary pressure has reached a critical point as in the second phase, the blood breaks capillary walls and squeezes through interstitial spaces to reach alveolar spaces, resulting in irreversible lung damages. The available free volume in the thorax cage, organ usable capacities, temperature and humid are expected to have great impacts on degree of lung damages. The free volume in the thorax cage, lung usable surplus capacity, and other organ usable capacities determine the arrival time of last-phase irreversible damage. The mechanisms imply that the top priority for protecting lungs is maintaining pulmonary micro-circulation and preserving organ functions in the entire disease course while controlling viral reproduction should be stressed in the earliest time possible. The mechanisms also explain leukecytes are recruited and migrated into inflamed tissues by increasing their dwell times caused by increased local flow resistance.

Daily rainfall data was collected for the arid district of Ananthapuramu, Andhra Pradesh state, India from 1981 to 2016 at the sub-district level and aggregated to monthly, annual and seasonal rainfall totals and the number of rainy days. The objective of this study is to evaluate the homogeneity, trend, and trend change points in the rainfall data. After quality checks and homogeneity analysis, a total of 27 rain gauge locations were considered for trend analysis. A serial correlation test was applied to all the time series to identify serially independent series. Non-Parametric Mann-Kendall test and Spearman’s rank correlation tests were applied to serially independent series. The magnitude of the trend was calculated using Sen’s slope method. For the data influenced by serial correlation, various modified versions of Mann-Kendall tests (Pre-Whitening, Trend Free Pre-Whitening, Bias Corrected Pre-Whitening and two variants of Variance Correction Approaches) were applied. A significant increasing summer rainfall trend is observed in 6 out of 27 stations. Significant decreasing trends are observed at two stations in the south-west monsoon season and at two stations in the north-east monsoon season. To identify the trend change-points in the time series, distribution-free Cumulative SUM test and sequential Mann-Kendall tests were applied. Two open-source library packages were developed in R language namely, ‘modifiedmk’ and ‘trendchange’ to implement the statistical tests mentioned in this paper. The study will benefit water resource management, drought mitigation, socio-economic development and sustainable agricultural planning in the region.

The Greenland ice sheet is a major contributor to sea level rise, adding an estimated 0.47 +/− 0.23 mm/yr to global mean sea level between 1991 and 2015 (van den Broeke et al., 2016). Making sea level rise projections for the future and understanding the processes controlling current observed rates of sea level rise are crucially dependent on understanding the present-day state of the ice sheet. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of the mass budget of Greenland based on satellite gravimetry and remote sensing observations of surface elevation change, ice sheet velocity and calving front positions. We also combine these essential climate variables with a regional climate model (RCM) output from an ice sheet model (ISM) to gain insight into poorly understood ice sheet dynamical and surface mass processes. On average from 1992 to 2017 the ice sheet in some locations has lost up −2.65 m/yr in elevation based on ESA Radar altimetry analysis. Calving fronts have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. The locations of grounding lines at 5 key glaciers with floating ice tongues have remained stable over the observation period. However a detailed case study at Petermann glacier with an ice fracture model shows the sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future climate change. GRACE gravimetric mass balance (GMB) data allows us to tie together disparate lines of evidence showing that Greenland has lost about 265 +/− 25 Gt/yr of ice over the period 2002 to 2015. RCM and ISM simulations show that surface mass processes dominate the overall Greenland ice sheet mass budget except for areas of fast ice sheet flow but marked differences between models and between models and observations indicate that not all processes are captured accurately, indicating areas of greater uncertainty and directions of future research for future sea level rise projections.

Risk attitudes are relevant factors affecting the production and investment decisions at farm level. They are key factors that are related to farmers’ attitudes towards environment and climate change. Several methodological approaches are available to measure the level of stated risk of an economic agent. The Multiple Price List (MPL) method is one of the methods that is gaining relevance. In this study we apply the MPL and relate the risk outcomes with farmers’ characteristics and their perception towards environment and climate change. Data was collected using a face to face survey carried out for a group of 370 agricultural producers of the irrigation district located in northwest of Mexico. Results showed an average risk of about 0.32, locating the agricultural producers of the region in a group with risk aversion, according to the MPL scale. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the socioeconomic factors and the perceptions towards climate change are related to the farmers´ stated risk level. Farmers who are young women with propensity to use public support to invest were shown to be greater risk lovers. Farmers in the region have perceived climate change to a greater extent like floods, hail, diseases and pests, and changing vegetation.

Climate change poses a major threat to development in most low and middle-income countries, especially the sub – Saharan Africa. Wurompo is a small farming community in the Wenchi Municipality of the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana that depends on rain-fed agriculture activities for livelihood. In recent years, droughts, unpredictable rainfall pattern and crop failure have become common in the area. The study assessed knowledge and awareness, effects of climate change on female farmers, and their adaptation strategies. A case study in design, qualitative methods were used to collect data from 50 purposefully selected participants. Data were analyzed using themes and sub-themes generated from the research questions. Findings showed lack of adequate information and knowledge on climate change and its effects. Climate change has impacted negatively on these farmers stemming from decline in crop production and unavailability of adequate water supply in due season. Challenges to climate change adaptation are poverty, poor basic infrastructure, and modern farming practices. Farmers must be educated on climate change and its effects, with training on the necessary adaptation strategies to build their resilience. Policies that target rural farmers to adapt to climate change, and device modern agricultural techniques and practices are also necessary.

This study was conducted to investigate the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on rainfall distribution and productivity of major Agricultural crops in the Kembta Tembaro Zone of Southern Ethiopia over the past 30 years. Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the National Meteorology Agency, crop data from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia, and the Sea Surface Temperature data from the NOAA website. The rainfall trend had shown decreasing trend with high variability at all the stations (p<0.05). Over the same period, El Niño and La Niña event were observed and highly affected rainfall distribution. It was found that Coefficient Variation was greater than 30%, which indicates the area was prone to drought episodes. The impacts of the ENSO events on the yield of Maize, Wheat, Barely, Sorghum and Enset were assessed. Wheat and Maize were highly affected by the ENSO events. Enset was found to be more resistant crop to the influence of ENSO. Barely and Sorghum were affected at varying magnitude. Among the five chosen crop for this investigation two of the crops were seriously affected during the two extremes, i.e. El Niño and La Niña. From this investigation it is conclude that the overall cereal crop productivity was decreased and precipitation variability was noticed. So, having the information about ENSO phase in advance can be used to forecast ENSO and select crop types and varieties to maximize agricultural rain fed cereal crop productivity while minimizing the crop risk associated with seasonal rainfall and ENSO phases.

Results-Based Funding (RBF) for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has become an important instrument for channeling financial resources to forest conservation activities. At the same time, much literature on conservation funding is ambiguous about the effectiveness of existing RBF schemes. Many effectiveness evaluations follow a simplified version of the principal-agent model, although in practice the relation between aid providers and funding recipients is much more complex. As a consequence, intermediary steps of conservation funding are often not accounted for effectiveness studies. This research paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of conservation funding by analyzing the allocation of financial resources for one of the largest RBF schemes for REDD+ in the world: the Brazilian Amazon Fund. As part of this analysis, this study has built a dataset of information on Amazon Fund projects at unprecedented detail in order to accurately reconstruct the allocation of financial resources across different stakeholders (i.e. governments, NGOs, research institutions), geographies and activities. The results show that stakeholders seem to hold preferences with respect to the type of activities that they support, thereby suggesting that project owners exert much influence on how deforestation reduction is to be attained. There are evidences that governmental organizations lack financial additionality of their projects, which renders the growing share of funding to this type of stakeholder particularly worrisome. By contrast, the geographical distribution of financial resources seemed to follow a more focused rationale as financial support tends to concentrate in areas where deforestation threats are highest. Overall, the allocation of the financial resources from the Amazon Fund reflects an arbitrary support of different projects that adopt very diverging theories of change that are not primarily concerned with attaining further deforestation reductions. As projects owners exert influence on funding effectiveness to some extent, the Amazon Fund may either seek to regulate the allocation of financial resources more actively or adopt funding effectiveness evaluations that account for this influence more comprehensively.

We examine the mass balance of the glaciers in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, located in the Russian High Arctic using time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, laser altimetry data from the NASA Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission, and radar altimetry data from the ESA CryoSat-2 mission. We present a new algorithm for detecting changes in glacier elevation from these satellite altimetry data and evaluate its performance in the case Novaya Zemlya by comparing the results with GRACE. We find that the mass loss of Novaya Zemlya increased from 10±5 Gt/yr over 2003-2009 to 14±4 Gt/yr over 2010-2016, with a brief period of near mass balance between 2009 and 2011. The results are consistent across the gravimetric and altimetric methods. Furthermore, the analysis of elevation change from CryoSat-2 indicates that 60\% of the mass loss occurs at low elevation, where thinning rates are highest. We also find that marine-terminating glaciers in Novaya Zemlya are thinning significantly faster than land-terminating glaciers, which indicates an important role of ice dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. We posit that the glacier changes have been caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. We find that the increase in mass loss after 2010 is associated with a warming in air temperatures, which increased the surface melt rates. There is no enough information on the ocean temperature at the front of the glaciers to conclude on the role of the ocean, but we posit that the temperature of subsurface ocean waters must have increased during the observation period.

This paper explores how the medicinal plant knowledge of the Waorani indigenous society in Ecuador varies in accordance with both socio-economic and demographic factors. Medicinal plant knowledge was compared at both individual and community levels. Fifty-nine semi-structured interviews (men n = 30, women n = 29) were performed with people between fifteen and seventy years old in five Waorani communities located within the Yasuní Biosphere Reserve. Results show a positive correlation between an individual’s medicinal plant knowledge and age, a negative correlation between medicinal plant knowledge and the years of schooling, and differences among isolated and easily accessible communities. Reasons behind these findings are seen in the rapid socio-cultural changes of the Waorani society due to globalization processes. Increased accessibility to health centers, improved transportation infrastructure and changes in how knowledge is transmitted to young people all result in a loss of ethnobotanical knowledge. Policymakers need to take action in order to ensure the maintenance of ethnoecological knowledge among the Waorani.

This paper addresses the issues of how we can quantify structural information for nonparametric distributions and how we can detect its changes. Structural information refers to an index for a global understanding of a data distribution. When we consider the problem of clustering using a parametric model such as a Gaussian mixture model, the number of mixture components (clusters) can be thought of as structural information in the model. However, there does not exist any notion of structural information for nonparametric modeling of data. In this paper we introduce a novel notion of {\em kernel complexity} (KC) as structural information in the nonparametric setting. The key idea of KC is to combine the information bias inspired by the Gini index with the information quantity measured in terms of the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length. We empirically show that KC has a property similar to the number of clusters in a parametric model. We further propose a framework for structural change detection with KC in nonparametric distributions. With synthetic and real data sets we empirically demonstrate that our framework enables us to detect structural changes underlying the data and their early warning signals.

Climate change poses a serious threat to global agricultural activity and food production. To address this issue, plant genome editing technologies have been developed to provide an alternative solution for crop improvement. Unlike conventional breeding techniques (e.g., selective breeding and mutation breeding), modern genome editing tools offer more targeted and specific alterations of the plant genome to produce crops with desired traits, such as higher yield and/or stronger resilience to the changing environment. In this review, we discuss the current development and future applications of genome editing technologies in mitigating the impacts of biotic and abiotic stresses on agriculture. We focus specifically on the CRISPR/Cas system, which has been the center of attention in the last few years as a revolutionary genome-editing tool in various species. We also conducted a bibliographic analysis on CRISPR-related papers published from 2012 to 2021 (10 years) to identify trends and possible gaps in the CRISPR/Cas-related plant research. In addition, this review article outlines the current shortcomings and challenges of employing genome editing technologies in agriculture with notes on future prospective. We believe combining conventional and more innovative technologies in agriculture would be the key to optimizing crop improvement beyond the limitations of traditional agricultural practices.

Crop domestication and breeding considerably increased productivity over centuries, but simultaneously involved unconscious selection against ‘selfish plant behavior’. Paradoxically, modern-day crop breeding largely enhances individual plant-fitness. As agriculture relies on community performance, embracing an “Agroecological Genetics and Genomics” viewpoint might maximize communal yield by matching crop genotypes to target environments.

Water scarcity is a key challenge to global development. In Brazil, the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB) has experienced water scarcity problems because of decreasing streamflow and increasing demands from multiple sectors. However, the drivers of decreased streamflow, particularly the potential role of surface-groundwater interaction, have not been yet investigated. Here, we assess long-term trends in baseflow, quickflow, and streamflow of the SFB during 1980–2015 and constrain the most likely drivers of observed decreases through trend analysis of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and terrestrial water storage change (TWS). We found that over 82% of the observed decrease in streamflow can be attributed to a significant decreasing baseflow trend (< -20 m3 s-1 y-1) along the SFR with spatial agreement between decreased baseflow, increased ET, and irrigated agricultural land. We also noted a decrease in TWS across the SFB with trends exceeding -20 mm y-1. Overall, our findings indicate that decreasing groundwater contributions (i.e., baseflow) is providing the observed reduction in total SFR flow. A lack of significant P trends indicates that only P variability likely has not caused the observed baseflow reduction, mainly in the Middle and Sub-middle SFB. Therefore, groundwater and surface withdrawals may be likely a driver of water scarcity over the SFB.

Plants thriving in desert environments are suitable for studying mechanisms for plant survival under extreme seasonal climate variation. Zygophyllum dumosum Boiss, like many other Zygophyllaceae species, displays a unique epigenetic mechanism whereby the repressive markers di- and tri-methyl of H3K9 do not exist. We studied epigenetic mechanisms underlying seasonal growth cycles in Z. dumosum and their association with factors regulating basic cell functions. We showed strong association between rainfall and seasonal growth and the epigenetic marker of dimethyl H3K4, which disappears on entry into the dry season and the acquisition of dormant state. DNA methylation is not affected by lack of H3K9 di and tri methyl and changes in methylation pattern are apparent on entry into the dry season. Proteome analysis of acid soluble fractions revealed extensive reduction in ribosomal proteins and in proteins involved in chloroplasts and mitochondria activities during the dry seasons concomitantly with up-regulation of molecular chaperone HSPs. Our results highlight mechanisms underlying Z. dumosum adaptation to seasonal climate variation. Particularly, summer dormancy is associated with loss of the permissive epigenetic marker dimethyl H3K4, which might facilitate genome compaction, concomitantly with significant reduction in proteins involved in basic cell functions (i.e., protein synthesis, photosynthesis and respiration).

Studies comparing provider and patient views and experiences of self-management within primary healthcare are particularly scarce in disadvantaged settings. In this qualitative study, patient and provider perceptions of self-management were investigated in five socio-economically disadvantaged communities in Stockholm. Twelve individual interviews and three group interviews were conducted. Semi-structured interview guides included questions on perceptions of diabetes diagnosis, diabetes care services available at primary health care centers, patient and provider interactions, and self-management support. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. Two overarching themes were identified. These were characterized by inherent dilemmas representing confusions and conflicts that patients and providers experienced in their daily life or practice respectively: adopting and maintaining new routines through practical and appropriate lifestyle choices (patients); and balancing expectations and pre-conceptions of self-management (providers). Patients found it difficult to tailor information and lifestyle advice to fit their daily life. Healthcare providers recognized that patients were in need of support to change behavior, but saw themselves as inadequately equipped to deal with the different cultural and social aspects of self-management. This study highlights patient and provider dilemmas that influence the interaction and collaboration between patients and providers with respect to communication and uptake of self-management advice.

In this research paper, change detection based methods were considered to find collapsed and intact buildings using radar remote sensing data or radar imageries. Main task of this research paper is collection of most relevant scientific research in field of building damage assessment using radar remote sensing data. Several methods are selected and presented as best methods in present time, there are methods with using interferometric coherence, backscattering coefficients in different spatial resolution. In conclusion, methods are given in end, which show, which methods and radar remote sensing data give more accuracy and more available for building damage assessment. Low resolution Sentinel-1A/B radar remote sensing data are recomended as free available for monitoring of destruction degree in microdistrict level. Change detection and texture based method are used together to increase overall accuracy. Homogeneity and Dissimilarity GLCM texture parameters found as better for separation of a collapsed and intact buildings. Dual polarization (VV,VH) backscattering coefficients and coherence coefficients (before earthquake and coseismic) were fully utilized for this study. There were defined the better multi variable for supervised classification of none building, damaged and intact buildings features in urban areas. In this work, we were achieved overall accuracy 0.77, producer’s accuracy for none building is 0.84, for damaged building case 0.85, for intact building 0.64. Amatrice town was chosen as most damaged from 2016 Central Italy Earthquake.

Fossil-based emissions can be avoided through using wood in place of non-renewable raw materials as energy and materials. However, increasing wood harvest influences forest carbon stocks. This effect may reduce the overall climate benefit of wood use significantly but is widely overlooked. We carried out a systematic review of simulation studies and compared differences in forest carbon and amount of wood harvested between more and less intensive wood harvest scenarios for three different time perspectives; short (1-30 years), mid (31-70 years) and long (71-100 years). Out of more than 450 reviewed studies 44 provided adequate data. Our results show that increased harvesting reduced carbon stocks over 100 years in temperate and boreal forests roughly 1.6 (stdev 0.9) t_C per t_C harvested. The value proved to be robust when outliers explicitly influenced by other factors than change in harvest rate, such as increase in fertilization or forest area, were removed. Interestingly, no significant difference in carbon impacts was found for average values of boreal and temperate forests or between short and long time-horizons. However, impacts tend to be greatest in the mid-term. This carbon balance indicator that we estimated can be interpreted as carbon debit of wood harvest in forests. It is significant compared with the typical GHG credits in technosphere generated by avoiding fossil emissions in substitution and increase in carbon storage in harvested wood products, and should not be ignored. Our estimates provide default values that can directly be included in GHG balances of products or assessment of mitigation policies and measures related to wood use. However, more systematic scenarios and transparent data in which different factors influencing forest carbon stocks are separately studied are clearly required to provide better constrained estimates for specific forest types.

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are highly pronounced in African countries, as they are characterized by an agriculture-based economy and a rapidly growing population. Understanding how land use/cover change (LULCC) influence watershed hydrology will enable local governments and policymakers to formulate and implement effective and appropriate response strategies to minimize the undesirable effects of future land use/cover change or modification and sustain the local socio-economic situation. The hydrological response of the Ethiopia Fincha’a watershed to LULCC happened during the last 30 years was investigated comparing the situation in three reference years: 1994, 2004 and 2018. The information was derived from Landsat sensors, respectively Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS. The various LULC classes were derived via ArcGIS using a supervised classification system, and the accuracy assessment was done using confusion matrixes. For all the years investigated the overall accuracies and the kappa coefficients were higher than 80%, with 2018 as the more accurate year. The analysis of LULCC revealed that forest decreased by 19.99% between the years 1994-2004, and it decreased by 11.85% in the following period 2004-2018. Such decline in areas covered by forest is correlated to an expansion of cultivated land by 16.4% and 10.81%, respectively. After having evaluated the LULCC at the basin scale, the watershed was divided into 18 sub-watersheds, which contained 176 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), having a specific LULC. Accounting for such a detailed subdivision of the Fincha’a watershed, the SWAT model was firstly calibrated and validated on past data, and then applied to infer information on the hydrological response of each HRU on LULCC. The modelling results pointed out a general increase of average water flow, both during dry and wet periods, as a consequence of a shift of land coverage from forest and grass towards settlements and build-up areas. The present analysis pointed out the need of accounting for past and future LULCC in modelling the hydrological responses of rivers at the watershed scale.

The most extensive urban growths in the next 30 years are expected to occur in developing countries. Lagos, Nigeria - Africa’s second most populous megacity- is a prime example. To achieve more sustainable and resilient cities, there is a need for modeling the urban growth patterns of major cities and analyzing their implications. In this study, the urban growth of Lagos state was modeled using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for the transition modeling and the Markov Chain analysis for the change prediction, achieving a model accuracy of 81.8%. An innovative visual validation of the model results using the ArcGIS was combined with kappa correlation statistics. The results show that by 2031, built-up areas will be the most spatially extensive LULC class in the study area with percentage coverage of 34.1% as opposed to 9% in 1986. The coverage of bare areas is also expected to increase by 53% between 2016 and 2031. Conversely, 24.9% and 68.3% loss of forestlands and wetlands respectively, are expected between 2016 and 2031. In view of the 11^th goal of SDGs which focuses on achieving sustainable cities and communities, the objectives of African Union’s Agenda 2063, and based on the urban growth trends observed, the study recommends a prioritization of vertical expansion as opposed to the current horizontal urban growth trends in the study area.

2-Hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin (HPβCD) has unique properties to enhance the stability and the solubility of low water-soluble compounds by inclusion complexation. Understanding of the structural properties of HPβCD and its derivatives based on the number of 2-hydroxypropyl (HP) substituents at the a-D-glucopyranose subunits is rather important. In this work, replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations were performed to investigate the conformational changes of single- and double-sided HP-substitution called as 6-HPβCDs and 2,6-HPβCDs, respectively. The results show that glucose subunits in both 6-HPβCDs and 2,6-HPβCDs have lower chance to flip than in βCD. Also, HP groups are occasionally blocking the hydrophobic cavity of HPβCDs, thus hindering the drug inclusion. We found that HPβCDs with high number of HP-substitutions are more likely to be blocked, while HPβCDs with double-sided HP-substitution are even more probable to be blocked. Overall, 6-HPβCDs with three and four HP-substitutions are highlighted as the most suitable structures for guest encapsulation based on our conformational analyses such as structural distortion, radius of gyration, circularity and cavity self-closure of the HPβCDs.

Abstract Depending upon altitudinal gradient in the Himalayas, the rate of climate change varies from lowland to upland. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones. Analysis of time series data (1970-2019) of temperature and precipitation was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trend, which was quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. Out of seven bioclimatic zones, four zones showed a decreasing precipitation trend (lower tropical, upper tropical, upper subtropical, and alpine bioclimatic zones)at the rate of 1.8, 1.98, 2.06, and 1.80 mm/year, and in lower sub-tropical, temperate, and lower subalpine bioclimatic zones, increasing at the rate of 0.45, 1.81 and 1.28mm/year, respectively. Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is significantly increasing more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone(UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone(USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone(TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051oC/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999-2009. The average temperature was found as 24.1, 21.8, 19.7, 17.5, and 13.3oC in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, and TBZ, respectively, and the average annual precipitation in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, TBZ, LBZ, and ABZ was 2002.1, 2613.1, 2223.9, 3146.9, 1447.2, 952.1, and 361.7mm/year, respectively, in CHAL. With the impact of climate change site and region-specific, this information highlights the need to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones.

Milkfish (Chanos chanos) locally called Bangus in the Philippines, is a popular food fish in terms of production and consumption in the Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan. This study characterized a typical grow-out milkfish farm in the Davao region in terms of socioeconomic profile, farming practices, and simple costs and returns. Three sites were chosen to conduct this study, mainly in Mati, Pantukan and Panabo in Davao region where N=43 farm workers provided information on their daily farming practices. Farms are commonly stocked with 16,000 fingerlings, harvesting occurs after every 6 months with six feeding times in a day. Moreover, workers were paid an average of Php 10,000 per month while the company had a gross income of Php 930,000 per cropping cycle. The feed cost shares 76% of the overall operational cost with a 27% return on investment for the first year of operation. Climate change impacts (e.g. higher sea surface temperature, unpredictable weather and flooding) and deteriorating water quality conditions were seen as bigger threats. Other results showed a positive relationship between stocking density and volume harvested (df=1, MS=0.0907, F=40.13, P=0.000) and income (df=1, MS=0.048, F=21.22, P=0.000). The study also showed the need for cheaper feed substitute and better benefits to farm workers.

Strategies implemented worldwide to contain COVID-19 outbreaks varied in severity across different countries, and established a new normal for work and school life (i.e. from home) for many people, reducing opportunities for physical activity. Positive relationships of physical activity with both mental and physical health are well recognised, therefore the aim was to ascertain how New Zealand’s lockdown restrictions impacted physical activity and mental health and wellbeing. Participants (n=4007; mean±SD: age 46.5±14.7y, 72% female, 80.7% New Zealand European) completed (10–26 April 2020) an online amalgamated survey (Qualtrics): International Physical Activity Questionnaire: Short Form; Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-9; World Health Organization-Five Well-being Index; Stages of Change Scale. Positive dose response relationships between physical activity levels and wellbeing scores were demonstrated for estimates that were unadjusted (moderate activity OR 3.79, CI 2.88-4.92; high activity OR 8.04, CI 6.07-10.7) and adjusted (confounding variables: age, gender, socioeconomic status, time sitting, co-morbidities) (moderate activity 1.57, CI 1.11-2.52; high activity 2.85, CI 1.97-4.14). The study results support previous research demonstrating beneficial effects of regular physical activity on mental health and wellbeing. Governments may use such results to promote meeting physical activity guidelines in order to protect mental health and wellbeing during the ongoing COVID-19 and future pandemics.

The expansion of concrete subjected to extreme elevated temperature is linked with intricate micro-structural variations, such as the transformation of the constituent phases. This study proposes a model to predict the thermal expansion of cement paste and concrete considering micro-structural changes under elevated temperatures ranging from 20°C to 800°C. The model presented can consider characteristics of various aggregates in the calculation of thermal expansion for concrete. The model is a combination of a multi-scale stoichiometric model and a multi-scale composite model. At the cement paste level, the model satisfactorily predicted a test result. At concrete level, upper bounds from the model were matched relatively well with test results by previous researcher. If the mechanical properties, such as elastic modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (ν), and thermal deformation, of the aggregates used in concrete are given, it is likely that the model will reasonably predict experimental results.

Biodiversity conservation planning is highly important in the current context of global change. Biodiversity conservation can be achieved by understanding changes in land use at the landscape scale. Such understanding is needed to reverse the unprecedented pressure on natural resources that has been reported by many studies conducted on biodiversity conservation within the Oti-Keran-Mandouri protected areas. Land cover maps reflecting different dates (1987, 2000, and 2013) and depicting different management systems, with overall accuracy ranging from 73% to 79%, were analyzed to understand the processes that lead to habitat degradation within these protected areas. The nature of change, within a given land cover class, was determined by comparing land cover maps on different dates using a decision tree algorithm that compares the number of patches, their areas, and their perimeters at different time periods (T₁ and T₂). Specifically, two time-periods were considered for this analysis: 1987–2000 and 2000–2013. Croplands and settlements increased at an average of 108.13% and 5.45%, respectively, from 1987 to 2000. From 2000 to 2013, croplands gained from all other land categories and continued to increase at a rate of 11.77% per year, whereas forests and savannas decreased at an annual average rate by 5.79% and 2.32%, respectively. The dominant processes of habitat change from 1987 to 2000 were the creation of forests, dissection of savannas, attrition of wetlands, and creation of croplands. Meanwhile, from 2000 to 2013, there was attrition of forests, as well as attrition of savannas, dissection of wetlands, and aggregation of croplands. In general, from 1987 to 2013, natural habitats regressed and were replaced by croplands; forests, savannas, and wetlands decreased at an average annual percentage 5.74%, 3.94%, and 2.02%, respectively, whereas croplands increased at an average annual rate of 285.39% of their own area. Aggregation, attrition, dissection, and creation were the main habitat change processes identified for the overall period from 1987 to 2013. There was habitat loss in forests and savannas and habitat fragmentation in wetland due to attrition and dissection, respectively. Identifying and understanding habitat change processes would enable the taking of appropriate biodiversity conservation actions.

Loess was deposited in the Negev during the Pleistocene, but such sediments seem to be missing for the Holocene. This could be due to erosion unless structures such as ruins offered protection. We studied soils developed on archaeological hilltop ruins in the Negev and the Petra region and compared them with local soils, paleosols, geological outcrops, and current dust. The ruin soils in both regions were found to consist of similarly complex mixtures of local and remote sediment sources. They differ from sediments deposited during current dust storms. This seems due to fixation processes: average accretion rates are estimated to ~0.14 mm/a, suggesting that only ~3% of the current dust that can be trapped with dry marble dust collectors is stored in the soils. Vegetation, biocrusts, and/or clast pavements associated with vesicular layers seem to act as sediment-fixing agents. As well, climate might play a role: rain, and in particular one snowstorm in the Petra region brought a high amount of sediment that was more similar to the ruin soils. Wet deposition and snow might catalyze dust deposition and enhance fixation by fostering vegetation and crust formation. Frequent snow during the Pleistocene might be one explanation of enhanced loess deposition.

Among the array of structurally and toxicologically diverse mycotoxins, aflatoxins have attracted the most interest of scientific research due to their high toxicity and incidence in foods and feeds. Despite the undeniable progress made in various aspects related to aflatoxins, the ultimate goal consisting of reducing the associated public health risks worldwide is far from being reached due to multiplicity of social, political, economic, geographic, climatic, and development factors. However, a reasonable degree of health protection is attained in industrialized countries owing to their scientific, administrative, and financial capacities allowing them to use high-tech agricultural management systems. Less fortunate situation exists in equatorial and sub-equatorial developing countries mainly practicing traditional agriculture managed by smallholders for subsistence, and where the climate is suitable for mould growth and aflatoxin production. A situation that worsens by the climatic change being increasingly suitable for aflatoxigenic mold growth and toxin production. Accordingly, it is difficult to harmonize the regulatory standards of aflatoxins worldwide, which prevents agri-foods of developing countries from access to the market of industrialized countries. To tackle the multi-facetted aflatoxin problems, actions should be taken collectively by the international community involving scientific research, technological and social development, environment protection, awareness promotion, etc. International cooperation should foster technology transfer and exchange of pertinent technical information. This review presents the main historical discoveries leading to our present knowledge on aflatoxins and the challenges that should be addressed presently and in the future at various levels to ensure higher health protection for everybody. In short, it aims to elucidate where we come from and where we should go in terms of aflatoxin research/development.

The literature on contract farming and climate change in Zimbabwe has blind spots in relation to the study of contract farming as a climate change response. While the literature on contract farming and climate change abounds, such literature is lacking when it comes to the exploration of how contract farming can facilitate climate change coping and adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers. This paper fills this gap. It draws on in-depth interviews with 10 contracted and 10 non-contract farmers who were engaged through face-to-face in-depth interviews in the Chipinge South Constituency. It found that contract farming does not only boost productivity, but it also enables farmers to positively respond to the ravages of climate change, and therefore, it should be supported and encouraged. Future research should explore more viable and sustainable way through which the state, instead of private sector actors, should be at the centre of contract farming.

This review examines from a services perspective strategies for preparedness and response to mental health impacts of three types of climate-related events: 1) acute climate-related events such as hurricanes, floods and wildfires, 2) sub-acute or long-term changes in the environment such as drought and heat stress; and 3) the existential threat of long-lasting changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels and a permanently altered and potentially uninhabitable physical environment. Strategies for acute events include development and implementation of guidelines and interventions for monitoring and treating adverse mental health outcomes and strengthening individual and community resilience, training of non-mental health professionals for services delivery, and the mapping of available resources and locations of at-risk populations. Additional strategies for sub-acute changes include advocacy for mitigation policies and programs and adaptation of guidelines and interventions to address the secondary impacts of sub-acute events such as economic loss, threats to livelihood, health and well-being, population and family displacement, environmental degradation and collective violence. Strategies for long-lasting changes include implementation of evidence-based risk communication interventions that address the existential threat of climate change, promoting the mental health benefits of environmental conservation, and promoting positive mental health impacts of climate change.

This study assessed stakeholders’ perception on the prospects and challenges of practising Climate–Smart Agroforestry in the Asunafo North Municipal Assembly in the Ahafo Region in Ghana. Interviewer administered questionnaires were used to collect cross-sectional data from 250 cocoa, food and cash crop farmers drawn from four (4) communities using simple random sampling. And nine (9) in-depth interviews were also conducted to elicit key stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholders also held the view that Climate-Smart Agroforestry encourages the use of stress-tolerant crop varieties, increase income, improve soil productivity, diversify farm produce, urges the reduction of input supply and recommends the timely usage of the inputs, ensures better market system for farm produce, cost of production decreases during the practice of Agroforestry, agro-ecological functions and Climate-Smart Agroforestry can best help adapt to the threats of climate change in the agriculture sector. The challenges included insecure tree ownership right, fast-declining soil fertility and long maturity period of Agroforestry trees, land tenure issues, illegal tree logging (chainsaw operators) on farms, lack of practical understanding of the approach, inadequate knowledge and information and inadequate supportive facilities in the study area. The study recommends further studies on the existing forest policy and legislations and its implications on the practice and adoption of Climate-Smart Agroforestry in respond to climate change in the area.

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods of time that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across the centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have permanent effect in growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and it becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

In recent years in Bangladesh, there has been regular cyclonic event, flooding and erratic pre-monsoons precipitation that has hampered production greatly and forced Bangladesh to import salt from abroad to manage market deficiency. There is much uncertainty about the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of small-scale, sudden onset weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and subsequent loss and damage (L&D). But, several studies indicate that an obvious strong relationship exists between irregular rainfall and associated L&D. Nowadays, severe changing rainfall patterns are observed in Bangladesh, which is rapid-onset in nature, but low exposed in terms of response. The current study explored a ‘double-exposed’ burden combined of both climatic (e.g., uneven rainfall) and non-climatic governance factors (e.g., imperfect trade policy, the absence of risk transfer mechanisms) which are hindering salt production and pushing the country from the aspiration of salt exporting to the net buyer. This chapter mainly assesses the impacts of L&D due to climatic events that are causing overwhelming effects on the well-being of marginal salt farmers at Kutubdia Upazila of Bangladesh. Data were mainly collected through Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA), Key informant interviews (KII), and Sample Surveys (SS). This study would provide insights for improved disaster management policy and an appropriate adaptive measure to address such extreme events as well as to initiate a further study for understanding the nexus of ‘nature and market’ in building resilience among the marginal salt farmers.

The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but such a target needs to be coupled with a further constraint on the cumulative greenhouse gases released along the path to 2050. The aim and the novelty of this study are to propose, for the first time, a carbon budget for the European Union, which represents the most significant physical characteristic to assess the feasibility of current EU-28 greenhouse gas reduction objectives under the goals of the 2015 Paris treaty

The implementation of One Health/EcoHealth/Planetary Health approaches has been identified as key (i) to address the strong interconnections between risk for pandemics, climate change and biodiversity loss, and (ii) to develop and implement solutions to these interlinked crises. As a response to the multiple calls of scientists in that direction, we have put forward seven long term research questions regarding COVID-19 and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that are based on an effective integration of environmental, ecological, evolutionary, and social sciences to better anticipate and mitigate EIDs. Research needs cover the social-ecology of infectious disease agents, their evolution, the determinants of susceptibility of humans and animals to infections, and the human and ecological factors accelerating infectious disease emergence. For comprehensive investigation, they include the development of nature-based solutions to interlinked global planetary crises, addressing ethical and philosophical questions regarding the relationship of humans to nature and regarding transformative changes to safeguard the environment and human health. In support of this research, we propose the implementation of innovative multidisciplinary facilities embedded in social-ecosystems locally: the “ecological health observatories” and the “living laboratories”. This work has been carried out in the frame of the EC project HERA (www.HERAresearchEU.eu) that aims to set the priorities for an environment, climate and health research agenda in the EU by adopting a systemic approach in the face of global environmental change.

Climate change and the overall increase of seawater temperature is causing a poleward shift in species distribution, which includes a phenomenon described as tropicalization of temperate regions. This work aims at reporting the first records of four species off the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, namely oceanic puffer Lagocephalus lagocephalus Linnaeus, 1758, Madeira rockfish Scorpaena maderensis Valenciennes, 1833, ornate wrasse Thalassoma pavo Linnaeus, 1758, and bearded fireworm Hermodice carunculata Pallas, 1766. These last three species, along with other occurrences of aquatic fauna and flora along the Portuguese coast, reveal an ongoing process of poleward expansion of several species for which a comprehensive survey along the entire Iberian Peninsula is urgent. The putative origins of these subtropical and tropical species off continental Portugal are discussed, as well as the urgent need of public awareness due to potential health risks resulting from the toxicity of two of the four species reported in this paper.

The reduction of biodiversity loss is one of the targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The protection of endangered species is critical for conserving global biodiversity. Asian elephants，as one of the last few mega-herbivores on Earth, are currently threatened by climate changes and anthropogenic modifications. The modelling of their living habitats is of top priority to the conservation of Asian elephant. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to identify the current and potential future habitats of Asian elephants in South and Southeast Asia. We performed analyses for future projections with 17 scenarios by using the present results as baseline. To optimise the modelling results, we delineated the core habitats by using the Core Mapper Tool and compared them with existing protected areas (PAs) through gap analysis. The results showed that the current total area of core habitats is 491,455 km2 in size and will be reduced to 332,544 km2 by 2090 under SSP585 (the shared socioeconomic pathway). The projection analysis under differential scenarios suggested that most of the core habitats in the current protected areas would remain stable and suitable for elephants in the future. However, the remaining 75.17% of the core habitats lay outside the current PAs, and finally we mapped approximately 219,545 km2 of suitable habitats as priority protected areas in the future. Although our model did not perform well in some regions, our analyses and findings still could provide useful references to the planning of protected areas and conservation of Asian elephant.

In order to explore the grassland ecosystem productivity and landscape ecological patterns of main pastoral grasslands in China, it provides a theoretical basis for the efficient implementation of ecological engineering and rational management of grassland resources in the region. This study analyzed the changes in grassland area, landscape index (LSI), and net primary productivity (NPP) in seven major pastoral areas in China in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015. Results showed that (1) the sizes of the grassland study area in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015 were 248.34, 243.93, 245.80, and 244.660 km2 respectively. (2) The dominance of grassland in the landscape pattern increased from 2005 to 2015 as compared with that in 1985–1995 and 1995–2005. The degrees of spatial heterogeneity were reduced. (3) The grassland NPP showed spatial and temporal differences. The average NPP of grassland increased by 21.30%, 16.47%, and 36.17% during 1985–1995, 2005–2015, and 1985–2015, respectively. From 1995 to 2005, the average NPP decreased by 5.05 gC/m2, which is equivalent to -3.61% of the average NPP in 1995. The total amount of grassland NPP in the study area was the greatest in 2015, showing increments of 36.37% and 16.61% compared with those in 1985 and 2005, respectively.

We show that an exponential income distribution will emerge spontaneously in a peer-to-peer economic network that shares the publicly available technology. Based on this finding, we identify the exponential income distribution as the benchmark structure of the well-functioning market economy. However, a real market economy may deviate from the well-functioning market economy. We show that the deviation is partly reflected as the invalidity of exponential distribution in describing the super-low income class that involves unemployment. In this regard, we find, theoretically, that the lower-bound u of exponential income distribution has a linear relationship with (per capita) unemployment compensation. In this paper, we test this relationship for the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2015. Our empirical investigation confirms that the income structure of low and middle classes (about 90% of populations) in the United Kingdom exactly obeys exponential distribution, in which the lower-bound u is exactly in line with the evolution of unemployment compensation.

Corresponding to the principles of biological synapses, an essential prerequisite for hardware neural networks using electronics devices is continuous regulation of conductance. We implemented artificial synaptic characteristics in a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM with a superlattice structure under optimized identical pulse trains. Based on atomically controlling the Ge switch in the phase transition that appears in the GeTe/Sb2Te3 superlattice structure, multiple conductance states were implemented by applying the appropriate electrical pulses. Furthermore, we found that the bidirectional switching behavior of a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM can achieve a desired resistance level using the pulse width. Therefore, we also fabricated a Ge2Sb2Te5 PCM and designed a pulse scheme based on the phase transition mechanism to compare to the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM. We designed an identical pulse scheme that implements linear and symmetrical LTP and LTD based on the iPCM mechanism. As a result, the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM showed relatively excellent synaptic characteristics by implementing gradual conductance modulation, a nonlinearity value of 0.32, and LTP/LTD 40 conductance states using identical pulses trains. Our results demonstrate the general applicability of the artificial synaptic device for potential use in neuro-inspired computing and next generation non-volatile memory.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

The contextual and risk perception of climate change plays a critical role in an individual’s decision-making process. It could also help people to respond appropriately to the consequences of global climate change and eventually take necessary adaptation actions. However, the perceptions of climate change are often gendered and vary among men and women. Therefore, this study explores different perceptions of climate change and its local adaptation options among ultra-poor vulnerable women, particularly in highly vulnerable flood-prone regions of Bangladesh. The research followed an empirical research methodology to collect primary and secondary information using qualitative and quantitative research tools. The study findings reveal that climate change perceptions at the individual level are relatively low (63%). Still, they have been observing significant changes in various climatic variables over the past 30 years. Moreover, this study identified some major adaptation options such as plinth raising (100%), livestock rearing (100%), homestead gardening (82%), seasonal migration (82%), and using indigenous knowledge (69%), and so on to tackle the adverse impacts of climate change-induced extreme events including flooding at the local level. For implementing these adaptation measures, the respondents spent a significant amount of financial resources from individual sources in the study area. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used in addition to the statistical analyses to understand any connections between the climate change perceptions and other variables associated with the community under study. The SEM result shows that climate change will be a long–term problem, which offers a strong predictor in this model, considering standardized regression weight β= 0.56. It means, despite inadequate knowledge on climate change of the respondent’s, climate change is occurring and becoming the worst factor limiting cultural, economic, and environmental development in the study area.

Fundamental principles of modern cities and urban planning are challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the advantages of large city size, high density, mass transport, free use of public space, unrestricted individual mobility in cities. These principles shaped the development of cities and metropolitan areas for more than a century, but currently, there are signs that they have turned from advantage to liability. Cities Public authorities and private organisations responded to the COVID-19 crisis with a variety of policies and business practices. These countermeasures codify a valuable experience and can offer lessons about how cities can tackle another grand challenge, this of climate change. Do the measures taken during the COVID-19 crisis represent a temporal adjustment to the current health crisis? Or do they open new ways towards a new type of urban development more effective in times of environmental and health crises? We address these questions through literature review and three case studies that review policies and practices for the transformation of city ecosystems mostly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic: (a) the central business district, (b) the transport ecosystem, and (c) the tourism-hospitality ecosystem. We assess whether the measures implemented in these ecosystems shape new policy and planning models for higher readiness of cities towards grand challenges. And how, based on this experience, cities should be organized to tackle the grand challenge of environmental sustainability and climate change.

The province of Macerata, Italy, is a topographically complex region which has been little studied in terms of its temperature and precipitation climatology. Temperature data from 81 weather stations and precipitation data from 55 rain gauges were obtained, and, following quality control procedures, were investigated on the basis of 3 standard periods: 1931-1960, 1961-1990 and 1991-2014. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and temperature were analysed on the basis of six topographic variable (altitude, distance from the sea, latitude, distance from the closest river, aspect, and distance from the crest line). Of these, the relationship with altitude showed the strongest correlation. Use of GIS software allowed investigation of the most accurate way to present interpolations of these data and assessment of the differences between the 3 investigated periods. The results of the analyses permit a thorough evaluation of climate change spatially over the last 60 years. Generally, the amount of precipitation is diminished while the temperature is increased across the whole study area, but with significant variations within it. Temperature increased by 2 to 3°C in the central part of the study area, while near the coast and in the mountains the change is between about 0 and 1°C, with small decreases focused in the Appennine and foothill belt (-1 to 0°C). For precipitation, the decrease is fairly uniform across the study area (between about 0-200 mm), but with some isolated areas of strong increase (200-300 mm) and only few parts of territory in which there is an increase of 0-200 mm, mainly in the southern part of the coast, to the south-west and inland immediately behind the coast. The monthly temperature trend is characterized by a constant growth, while for precipitation there is a strong decrease in the amount measured in January, February and October (between 25 and 35 mm on average).

While the scientific community has focused on documenting environmental degradation and developing scenarios that help identify the operational margins for system Earth, less attention has been given to the mental models of decision-makers that underpin environmental policies. We suggest that global efforts to stop deforestation and biodiversity loss are failing in part due to a critical blind spot in the analysis—human agency. To address this weakness, we propose to formulate mental models and translate them into strategy games. This will increase the representation of agency in scenario development and create spaces for deliberation between different worldviews. We claim that personal transformation can be achieved through transparent democratic dialogues that identify, challenge, and respond to the human and social limitations inherent to decision-making and we present empirical examples that validate that claim. Their transformation through gaming gives decision-makers access to the experience of consciousness: “what is it like being a stakeholder?”. Such experience will help to break free of established norms in science and political processes.

Climate change is likely to have a complex effect on the growth of plants, their phenology, plant-pollinator interactions, and reproductive success. Therefore, we tested the impact of three key factors (temperature, water, and nitrogen supply) on traits, pollination, and seed production in Sinapis alba (Brassicaceae). We grew the plants in different combinations of temperature, water, and nitrogen supplementation, measured multiple vegetative and floral traits, and assessed the response of pollinators in the field. We also evaluated the effect of growing conditions on seed set in plants exposed to pollinators and hand-pollinated plants. Our results show that water stress impaired vegetative growth, decreased flower production, reduced visitation by pollinators and seed set, while nitrogen availability played an important role in nectar production. Temperature modulated the effect of water and nitrogen availability on vegetative and floral traits and strongly affected flowering phenology and flower production. We demonstrated that changes in temperature, water, and nitrogen availability induce changes in plant vegetative and floral traits which impact flower visitation and consequently plant reproduction. Climate change, particularly increasing temperature combined with reduced precipitation, thus may impact plant-pollinator interactions with negative consequences for the reproduction of wild plants and insect-pollinated crops.

Cities worldwide are facing ever-increasing pressure to develop mitigation strategies for all sectors to deal with the impacts of climate change. Cities are expected to house 70% of the world’s population by 2050 and developing related resilient health systems is a significant challenge. Because of their physical nature, cities’ surface temperatures are often substantially higher than that of the surrounding rural areas, generating the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Whilst considerable emphasis has been placed on strategies to mitigate against the UHI-associated negative health effects of heat and pollution, the World Health Organization estimates that one of the main consequences of global warming will be an increased burden of such vector-borne diseases. Many of the major mosquito-borne diseases are urban and thus the global population exposed to these pathogens will steadily increase. Mitigation strategies beneficial for one sector may, however, be detrimental for another. Implementation of inter-sectoral strategies that can benefit many sectors (such as water, labour and health) do exist and would enable optimal use of the meagre resources available. Discussion among inter-sectoral stakeholders should be actively encouraged.

There is high confidence that climate change has increased the probability of concurrent temperature-precipitation extremes, changed their spatial-temporal variations, and affected the relationships between drivers of such natural hazards. However, the extent of such changes has been less investigated in Australia. Daily weather data (131 years, 1889-2019) at 700 grid cells (1◦ × 1◦) across Australia was obtained to calculate annual and seasonal mean daily maximum temperature (MMT) and total precipitation (TPR). A nonparametric multivariate copula framework was adopted to estimate the return period of compound hot-dry (CHD) events based on an ‘And’ hazard scenario (hotter than a threshold ‘And’ drier than a threshold). CHD extremes were defined as years with joint return periods of larger than 25 years. Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests was used to analyse trends in MMT and TPR as well as in the frequency of univariate and CHD extremes. A general cooling-wetting trend was observed over 1889-1989. Significant increasing trends were detected over 1990-2019 in the frequency and severity of hot extremes across the country while trends in dry extremes were mostly insignificant (and decreasing). Results showed a significant increase in the association between temperature and precipitation at various temporal scales. The frequency of CHD extremes was mostly stable over 1889-1989, but significantly increased between 1990 and 2019 at 44% of studied grid cells, mostly located in the north, south-east and south-west. Spatial homogeneity (i.e. connectedness) and propagation of extreme events from one grid cell to its neighbouring cells was investigated across Australia. It can be concluded that this connectedness has not significantly changed since 1889.

Oncology clinical pharmacists are uniquely positioned to make interventions to increase patient activation and engagement. To accomplish this goal, pharmacists can target health system-related, provider-related, and patient-related factors to help enhance patient-centered care and drive behavioral health changes. Interventions that pharmacists must tackle include educating team members and patients on the medication acquisition process, communicating urgency of treatment, optimizing workflows, facilitating guideline recommendations, preventing, and managing treatment toxicities, and promoting patient self-advocacy through education and shared decision-making. As crucial members of the healthcare team, oncology clinical pharmacists can simplify highly complex treatment regimens to facilitate and optimize patients’ ownership of their care. This review will focus on the example of venetoclax treatment in acute myeloid leukemia to demonstrate the impact that pharmacists provide that leads to behavioral change of patients and clinicians.

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

The Cape Restionaceae species, an endemic of the Fynbos Biome, is threatened by urbanization, alien plant invasion, agricultural expansion, and groundwater extraction. This is further worsened by the semi-arid conditions and hydrological variability factors, which influences species niche dynamics. Therefore, it is important to assess and monitor the Restionaceae species for preservation of their endemism and richness. This study models the hydrological niche and distribution changes of Restionaceae species at the New Years Peak (NYP) at microclimate level for biodiversity conservation. MaxEnt modelling and GIS analytical approaches were applied at various stages in niche modelling process as follows: (i) microclimatic input raster layers’ generation, (ii) ecological modelling and hydrological niche manipulation, and (iii) spatial distributional change mapping. The hydrological niches of the Restionaceae were effectively examined under the recent climate and compared with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios as the microscale environmental inputs. The results showed that most of the studied Restionaceae species positioned themselves along a hydrological gradient. Each species tolerated a range of hydrological conditions, which formed their hydrological niche. Changing climate would cause both positive and negative species range shifts. The study assists in plant species conservation and future climate change impact analysis on endangered plant species.

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating degree-day (HDD), the cooling degree-day (CDD) and the HDD+CDD were computed from an ensemble of 7 high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results show that the overall spatial distribution of HDD trends for the 3 time-periods points out an increase of energy demand to heat internal environments in Portugal's northern-eastern regions, most significant under RCP8.5. It is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios; however, statistically significant linear trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. The need for cooling is almost negligible for the remaining periods, though linear trend values are still considerably higher for 2041-2070 under RCP8.5. By the end of 2070, higher amplitudes for all indicators are depicted for southern Algarve and Alentejo regions, mainly under RCP8.5. For 2041-2070 the Centre and Alentejo (North and Centre) regions present major positive differences for HDD(CDD) under RCP4.5(RCP8.5), within the 5 NUTS II regions predicting higher heating(cooling) requirements for some locations.

In this study, we designed a structural model to determine the relationships among push–pull factors, institutional situations, and satisfaction during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 17 selected indicators fell under five domains, namely push factors, pull factors, institutional leadership, international strategies, and satisfaction. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to verify the assumptions of the model. Based on 1005 degree-seeking international students' views, this study found that push and pull factors may coincidentally exist, and their functions can be modified by institutional situations. The findings suggest pull factors will, through institutional leadership, impact students' satisfaction, while push factors will not. Moreover, the detection of institutional mediation can provide useful information for specific institutes to develop their future recruiting or retaining strategies. These findings enriched our knowledge of the field during the pandemic. For future studies, this design may be useful to interpret the phenomena of global student mobility in higher education settings.

Three decades have now passed since the first papers linking climate change to issues in human disease and healthcare. One of the most active topics in this area has been the implication of climate change events, particularly temperature and humidity fluctuations, in the northward spread of vector-borne viruses from more tropical regions into Europe and North America. However, some detailed studies of one such emerging disease, tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv), have called the connection into question, concentrating the debate on the investigation of precise mechanisms for the spread of viral disease. More recently, firmer statistical correlations have been made between climate variables, the presence of insect vectors and the prevalence of viral disease, particularly for West Nile Virus (WNV). These insights suggest avenues for mechanistic confirmation of the involvement of climate change in other diseases where the connection remains conjectural.