Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

El Niño Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Rainfall Distribution and Productivity of Major Agricultural Crops: The Case of Kemabata Tembaro Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Version 1 : Received: 21 January 2020 / Approved: 22 January 2020 / Online: 22 January 2020 (09:44:40 CET)

How to cite: Haile, B.T.; Bekitie, K.T.; Feyissa, G.L.; Zeleke, T.T. El Niño Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Rainfall Distribution and Productivity of Major Agricultural Crops: The Case of Kemabata Tembaro Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Preprints 2020, 2020010260 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202001.0260.v1). Haile, B.T.; Bekitie, K.T.; Feyissa, G.L.; Zeleke, T.T. El Niño Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Rainfall Distribution and Productivity of Major Agricultural Crops: The Case of Kemabata Tembaro Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Preprints 2020, 2020010260 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202001.0260.v1).

Abstract

This study was conducted to investigate the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on rainfall distribution and productivity of major Agricultural crops in the Kembta Tembaro Zone of Southern Ethiopia over the past 30 years. Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the National Meteorology Agency, crop data from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia, and the Sea Surface Temperature data from the NOAA website. The rainfall trend had shown decreasing trend with high variability at all the stations (p<0.05). Over the same period, El Niño and La Niña event were observed and highly affected rainfall distribution. It was found that Coefficient Variation was greater than 30%, which indicates the area was prone to drought episodes. The impacts of the ENSO events on the yield of Maize, Wheat, Barely, Sorghum and Enset were assessed. Wheat and Maize were highly affected by the ENSO events. Enset was found to be more resistant crop to the influence of ENSO. Barely and Sorghum were affected at varying magnitude. Among the five chosen crop for this investigation two of the crops were seriously affected during the two extremes, i.e. El Niño and La Niña. From this investigation it is conclude that the overall cereal crop productivity was decreased and precipitation variability was noticed. So, having the information about ENSO phase in advance can be used to forecast ENSO and select crop types and varieties to maximize agricultural rain fed cereal crop productivity while minimizing the crop risk associated with seasonal rainfall and ENSO phases.

Subject Areas

ENSO; El Nino; La Nina; Crop Yield; Climate change

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