Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

Version 1 : Received: 11 July 2020 / Approved: 12 July 2020 / Online: 12 July 2020 (08:26:52 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V.; Vera-Valdés, J.E. Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment. Econometrics 2020, 8, 37. Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V.; Vera-Valdés, J.E. Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment. Econometrics 2020, 8, 37.

Journal reference: Econometrics 2020, 8, 37
DOI: 10.3390/econometrics8030037

Abstract

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods of time that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across the centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have permanent effect in growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and it becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

Subject Areas

long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; and unemployment

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