Article
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Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal
Version 1
: Received: 22 April 2021 / Approved: 26 April 2021 / Online: 26 April 2021 (21:18:06 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Andrade, C.; Mourato, S.; Ramos, J. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 715. Andrade, C.; Mourato, S.; Ramos, J. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 715.
Abstract
Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating degree-day (HDD), the cooling degree-day (CDD) and the HDD+CDD were computed from an ensemble of 7 high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results show that the overall spatial distribution of HDD trends for the 3 time-periods points out an increase of energy demand to heat internal environments in Portugal's northern-eastern regions, most significant under RCP8.5. It is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios; however, statistically significant linear trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. The need for cooling is almost negligible for the remaining periods, though linear trend values are still considerably higher for 2041-2070 under RCP8.5. By the end of 2070, higher amplitudes for all indicators are depicted for southern Algarve and Alentejo regions, mainly under RCP8.5. For 2041-2070 the Centre and Alentejo (North and Centre) regions present major positive differences for HDD(CDD) under RCP4.5(RCP8.5), within the 5 NUTS II regions predicting higher heating(cooling) requirements for some locations.
Keywords
heating degree-day (HDD), cooling degree-day (CDD), climate change, projections, energy demand of residential buildings, Portugal
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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