With the development of higher voltage power grid, the high and low voltage parallel loops are emerging, which lead to energy losses, even threaten the security and stability of power system. The multi-infeed HVDC configurations widely appearing in AC/DC interconnected power system make this situation even worse. Aimed at energy saving and system security, a decision optimization method for power grid operating condition with high and low voltage parallel loops is proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering hub substation distribution and power grid structure, parallel loop opening schemes are generated with GN algorithm. Then, candidate opening schemes are preliminarily selected from all these generated schemes based on a filtering index. Finally, with the influence on power system security, stability and operation economy in consideration, an evaluation model for candidate opening schemes is founded based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And a fuzzy evaluation algorithm is used to find the optimal scheme. Simulation results of New England 39-bus system and an actual power system validate the effectiveness and superiority of this proposed method.

Business-to-business (B2B) manufacturing companies are increasingly confronted with transformative trends such as sustainability, digitalization, and servitization. These trends are changing how product portfolios are developed, and value contributions are assessed, and therefore have disruptive potential. Dealing with these disruptive factors in Product Portfolio Management (PPM) is a largely unexplored topic. This study presents an empirical-qualitative exploration that contributes significantly to the field. The aim is to clarify the extent to which disruptive factors influence the evaluation and shaping of the product portfolio in B2B manufacturing companies. The Gioia method was used to evaluate 21 semi-structured interviews with experts from leading B2B manufacturing companies. Eight overarching challenges in PPM resulting from the disruptive factors were identified. Based on the eight overarching challenges and their associated causal relationships, two aggregated dimensions of action were derived: (1) increasing speed and flexibility by using generative artificial intelligence (AI) in a defined PPM process and (2) adjusting the product portfolio evaluation to consider various strategic drivers. These two dimensions of action call for future research to overcome the disruptive factors in PPM.

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling has the potential to increase cervical cancer screening (CCS) and reduce the cervical cancer burden in Medically Underserved Women (MUW). However, interventions promoting self-sampling are limited. We examined the effectiveness of an intervention study in increasing CCS among MUW. We conducted a quasi-experimental intervention study. Face-to-face verbal approach was to recruit MUW (n=85, mean age 48.57±11.02) living in a small city in the US. Behavioral intervention based on reframing, reprioritizing, and reforming (3R model) was used to educate the women about CCS in a group format. The women completed pre-and post-intervention assessments and followed-up interviews. The primary outcome was CCS uptake. Mixed methods analyses were conducted using a t-test for the primary outcome, PROCESS for mediation analysis, and NVivo for interview data. Majority of women (75%) completed self-testing. High-risk HPV prevalent among the women was 11%, and of those, 57% followed-up with physicians for care. We found that the significant increase in the women’s post-intervention screening behaviors was mediated by the increase in knowledge (Indirect Effect [IE] = .1314; 95% CI, .0104, .4079) and attitude (IE = .2167; 95% CI, .0291, .6050) scores, (p<0.001). Interview analyses offered further explanations (see the explanations in parenthesis) why MUW found the intervention messages acceptable (encourages proactive behavior), feasible (simple and easy to understand), and appropriate (helpful and informative). Barriers including lack of trust and fear of results were identified. The findings suggest that an intervention that combines the 3R model and self-sampling may increase CCS among MUW.

The performance of the presurgical test (preSurg) for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) was evaluated via video-electroencephalography (VEEG), electroencephalography (EEG), 99mTc-HmPAO single-photon emission tomography (SPECT) and 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a group of 112 men (37.0 ± 1.1 years) and 106 women (39.7 ± 1.1 years) operated on for TLE. The epileptic zone (EZ) was adequately identified to determine whether the patient reached an Engel I grade (EI) at least one year postop. Accuracy was evaluated by the coefficient α, ranging from 3 (when result = EZ) to 2 (result in the same hemisphere as the EZ), 1 (noninformative result) or 0 (EZ in the contralateral hemisphere). The simplicity of diagnosis was defined as the number of preSurg surgeries needed to identify the EZ. EI was obtained in 85.8% of patients even though 42.2% of patients had noninformative MRI results. For preSurg α was (mean ± SEM) = VEEG (2.83 ± 0.04) > MRI (2.14 ± 0.08) > EEG (1.87 ± 0.09) > SPECT (1.71 ± 0.09). The accuracy (combination of sensitivity and specificity) was calculated as follows: VEEG (0.797) > MRI (0.518) > EEG (0.446) > SPECT (0.360). The likelihood positive ratio was greater, and the likelihood negative ratio was lower for VEEG. The most relevant factor for the regression model was VEEG (3.106) > MRI (2.558) > EEG (1.905), and the factors were not significantly related to SPECT. EZs in EI patients with low simplicity were identified mainly by VEEG. A very good postoperative outcome can be obtained even in TLE patients with no lesions on MRI. The VEEG is the most reliable preSurg test and may be the only reliable test for patients with very low simplicity (i.e., difficult).single paragraph of about 200 words maximum. For research articles, abstracts should give a pertinent overview of the work. We strongly encourage authors to use the following style of structured abstracts, but without headings: (1) Background: Place the question addressed in a broad context and highlight the purpose of the study; (2) Methods: briefly describe the main methods or treatments applied; (3) Results: summarize the article’s main findings; (4) Conclusions: indicate the main conclusions or interpretations. The abstract should be an objective representation of the article and it must not contain results that are not presented and substantiated in the main text and should not exaggerate the main conclusions.

Densely urbanized areas, with a low percentage of green vegetation, are highly exposed to Heat Waves (HW) which nowadays are increasing in terms of frequency and intensity also in the middle-latitude regions, due to ongoing Climate Change (CC). Their negative effects may combine with those of the UHI (Urban Heat Island), a local phenomenon where air temperatures in the compact built up cores of towns increase more than those in the surrounding rural areas, with significant impact on the quality of urban environment, on citizens health and energy consumption and transport, as it has occurred in the summer of 2003 on France and Italian central-northern areas. In this context this work aims at designing and developing a methodology based on aero-spatial remote sensing (EO) at medium-high resolution and most recent GIS techniques, for the extensive characterization of the urban fabric response to these climatic impacts related to the temperature within the general framework of supporting local and national strategies and policies of adaptation to CC. Due to its extension and variety of built-up typologies, the municipality of Rome was selected as test area for the methodology development and validation. First of all, we started by operating through photointerpretation of cartography at detailed scale (CTR 1: 5000) on a reference area consisting of a transect of about 5x20 km, extending from the downtown to the suburbs and including all the built-up classes of interest. The reference built-up vulnerability classes found inside the transect were then exploited as training areas to classify the entire territory of Rome municipality. To this end, the satellite EO HR (High Resolution) multispectral data, provided by the Landsat sensors were used within a on purpose developed "supervised" classification procedure, based on data mining and “object-classification” techniques. The classification results were then exploited for implementing a calibration method, based on a typical UHI temperature distribution, derived from MODIS satellite sensor LST (Land Surface Temperature) data of the summer 2003, to obtain an analytical expression of the vulnerability model, previously introduced on a semi-empirical basis.

We have repeated the experiment performed recently by Krasznahorkay et al., (Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 042501 (2016)), which may indicate a new particle called X17 in the literature. In order to get a reliable, and independent result, we used a different type of electron-positron pair spectrometer which have a more simple acceptance/efficiency as a function of the correlation angle, but the other conditions of the experiment were very similar to the published ones. We could confirm the presence of the anomaly measured at the Ex=18.15 MeV resonance, and also confirm their absence at the Ex=17.6 MeV resonance, and at Ep= 800 keV off resonance energies.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) poses a significant public health challenge due to its irreversible and progressive nature while lack of a cure. As a potential strategy to combat AD, its prevention becomes increasingly attractive. Mild Cognitive Impairment due to AD (MCI-AD) represents a critical transitional stage between normal age-related cognitive decline and more severe AD conditions, occurring just before dementia onset. Unfortunately, there is currently no established animal model that accurately recapitulates MCI-AD characteristics. While many laboratories have traditionally used normally aged wild-type animals as experimental models, this approach falls short in representing the inherently worse state of MCI-AD compared to normal aging. To address this gap, we introduce an animal model—a transgenic mouse line with genetic inactivation of G protein-coupled receptor kinase-5 (GRK5), commonly known as the GRK5 knockout (GRK5KO) mouse. These GRK5KO mice exhibit amnesia, cognitive deficits, increased β-amyloid levels, neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) immunopositive axonopathy, and hippocampal neurodegenerative changes. Importantly, these pathological alterations predominantly impact the entorhinal, transentorhinal, and hippocampal cortices, aligning with human MCI-AD criteria and Braak stage II of human AD progression. Notably, female GRK5KO mice show approximately 2.5 times more NFT-positive axonopathy than males, mirroring the higher prevalence of AD cases in women. Collectively, existing data strongly supports the GRK5KO mouse as a qualified animal model for studying MCI-AD.

In this study, we evaluated the antibacterial effect against Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella Typhimurium in fried fish paste using floating electrode-dielectric barrier discharge (FE-DBD) plasma (1.1 kV, 43 kHz, N2 1.5 m/s, 1-60 min). In addition, quality evaluation (pH, VBN) of fried fish paste was conducted after FE-DBD plasma treatment. When FE-DBD plasma was treated for 1, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 60 min, S. aureus decreased by 0.16-1.13 log10 CFU/g, and S. Typhimurium decreased 0.25-1.13 log10 CFU/g. Both decreased > log10 CFU/g at 60 min. The D-value was 58.92 and R2 was 0.97 for S. aureus using first-order kinetics, and the D-value was 43.60 and R2 was 0.97 for S. Typhimurium using the Weibull model. There was no significant difference in pH after FE-DBD plasma treatment (p > 0.05). However, volatile basic nitrogen (VBN) significantly decreased as the treatment time increased (p < 0.05), and it was the lowest at 60 min to 3.46. Therefore, FE-DBD plasma treatment could be considered as a technology for preserving the quality of processed foods.

In 2020 the world experienced the threat of the COVID-19 epidemic, as seniors and chronic disease patients typically try to reduce their exercise and social activities to avoid increasing the risk of infection, which could lead to increased loneliness and even many diseases. This research combining golf croquet games with AIoT companion robots constructs a home-based intelligent exercise system thus uses the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), deduces users’ intention to use this system based on perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and adds the needs of love and belonging, esteem, cognitive, aesthetic, and self-actualization in Maslow’s needs theory to conduct system needs analysis. The analysis results show that participants have a high level of acceptance of this system, believing that it is easy to learn and operate, can increase interaction with others, also found that this system can improve self-confirmation, satisfying the third for knowledge, feeling happy, and self-actualization needs are easier to fulfill. In the future, we shall collect and record the seniors in the process of use, so as to find out their health problems as soon as possible, expand their daily life through this exercise, and achieve the goal of happy living and health care.

Aiming at the development of the application of massive and heterogeneous LEO constellations, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction of LEO satellites at different altitudes is analyzed. Firstly, the main perturbation force model of LEO satellites is introduced. Then experiments for analyzing the influence of orbit prediction on LEO satellites at different altitudes are designed. Finally, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction under different prediction durations by numerical analysis is assessed systematically, and the orbit prediction of LEO satellites with different non-spherical gravitational field orders, ocean tide orders and atmospheric density models were compared and calculated. The research results show that different orders of non-spherical gravitational fields should be considered when the altitude of satellites is different, the reasonable gravitational field orders for LEO satellites at 500km, 1000km, 1500km and 2000km under 1-hour forecast time are 140x140, 80x80, 60x60 and 40x40 orders, the reasonable orders of ocean tide perturbation for 1500km and 2000km satellites are 20x20 orders. Under the 24-hour forecast time, atmospheric resistance has a great influence on the precision of LEO satellites at orbit altitude below 1,000km. The forecast deviation of the LEO satellites orbit at 500km reaches 8751.576m. The difference of orbit precision between different atmospheric density models is in the meter level. The orbit deviation by the Standard Atmosphere 1976 and NRLMSISE 2000 atmospheric models respectively reaches 25.494m. Relevant conclusions provide support for the optimization and selection of dynamical models in high precision orbit determination and fast orbit prediction of LEO satellites.

The study investigated the application of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) as a tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a city in Northern Italy from October 2021 to May 2023. Starting from a widely applied deterministic model, this study proposed a variation to take into account population characteristics and virus biodegradation in the sewer network. The model calculated virus loads and corresponding COVID-19 cases over time in different areas of the city and was validated with healthcare data while considering viral mutations, vaccinations, and testing variability. The correlation between the predicted and reported cases was high across the three waves that occurred in the considered period, demonstrating the model’s capacity to predict relevant fluctuations in the number of cases. Population characteristics did not substantially influence the predicted and reported infection rates. Conversely, biodegradation significantly reduced the virus load reaching the wastewater treatment plant, resulting in a 30% reduction in the total virus load produced in the study area. This approach can be applied for comparing virus load values across cities with varying population demographics and sewer network structures, enhancing the comparability of WBE data for effective surveillance and intervention strategies.

Due to the long-term deformation settlement of foundations, issues such as damage and functional failure of buildings and structures have long been of concern in the engineering field. The creep of soil is one of the primary causes leading to long-term deformation of foundations. In this paper, the consolidation deformation, creep characteristics, and creep model of reconstituted saturated silty clay were studied by isotropic compression test and triaxial shear creep test. The results show that for the isotropic compression test, although the applied load adopts different stages of loading, as long as the final applied confining pressure is the same, the number of stages applied by the confining pressure has little effect on the final isotropic consolidation deformation of the sample and the triaxial undrained shear strength after creep. However, for the triaxial shear creep test, it is found that under the same final deviatoric stress, the final deviatoric strain of the sample is closely related to the number of loading stages of deviatoric stress. It shows that the more loading stages of the sample loaded with the same deviatoric stress, the smaller the final deviatoric strain, and the triaxial undrained shear strength of the sample after creep will increase. In addition, it is reasonable to determine the pore pressure dissipation of the sample to 95%((u0-u0)/u0=95%) as the main consolidation end time (tEOP) of the sample. The isotropic consolidation creep curves and the triaxial shear creep curves show certain nonlinearity. Then the logarithmic model and the hyperbolic model were used to fit the creep curves of the samples. It is found that the hyperbolic model has a better fitting effect than the logarithmic model, but for the triaxial shear creep test, the creep parameters of the sample change greatly. Therefore, studying the creep characteristics of soil under different pre-loading steps is of significant engineering importance for evaluating the long-term deformation of underground structures.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

Mangroves offer vital ecological advantages including air and water filtration, coastal and estuarine habitat provision, sediment stabilization, and wave energy absorption. Their intricate root systems play a key role in safeguarding shorelines from tsunamis and erosive storms by dissipating wave energy. Moreover, mangroves shield against boat wakes and wind-waves, bolstering shoreline defense. Wave dissipation is a function of forest width, tree diameter, and forest density. Restoration efforts of juvenile mangroves in Florida’s Indian River Lagoon (IRL) aim to reduce wave energy in areas vulnerable to erosion. Physical model testing of wave dissipation through mangroves is limited due to the complexity in representing the mangrove structure, where prop roots are non-uniform in both diameter and location. Previous studies have quantified wave dissipating effects through use of scaled and parameterized mangrove structures. This study measures the dissipation effects of live mangroves in a wave flume, forced by conditions representative of the IRL. These measurements are used to validate a parameterized dowel model. Error between wave attenuation factors for the live mangrove and dowel system was on average 2.5%. Validation of the modularized dowel system allowed for further parameterized testing to understand forest structure effects, such as sediment stabilization and wave attenuation.

This study examined the tourism spatial distribution of nine cities in the Fujian province and assessed the impacts of COVID-19. The modified gravity model found that it was widely dispersed, with uneven and relatively independent tourism development in different cities. The social network analysis showed that tourism connections across cities were significantly reduced after the pandemic. The impacts of brand awareness and transport accessibility on spatial networks were positive in pre-pandemic but became negative during the pandemic. In contrast, tourist volume had negative impacts on spatial networks in pre-pandemic but had positive ones during the pandemic. Tourism resources and market performance had significantly positive impacts in the post-pandemic era. These findings provide advice on tourism recovery and destination management in coping with future critical events. It also contributes to the theoretical gravity framework in tourism and the research scope of the social networks analysis at the city level.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

This study concerns the transport and retention of polydisperse micron-sized (16 ± 6 µm) of microplastics (MPls) in porous media under varying flow rate conditions. Sorption kinetics were modeled using first-order reversible and irreversible kinetic sorption models, with sensitivity analyses providing insights into each sorption parameter's effect. Both numerical modeling and experimental measurements were employed to assess sand filter retention rates. The impact of flow rate on sorption reveals variations in distribution coefficient (Kd), mass transfer coefficient (β), and irreversible sorption rate (K1). Lower flow rates are correlated with higher Kd and β values, indicating an increase in sorption and diminished mass transfer rates. The findings revealed that an increase in Kd resulted in a more gradual sorption process with a decrease in peak concentration, whereas changes in β influenced the rate of sorption and peak concentration to a lesser extent compared to Kd. Lower K1 values are associated with higher peak concentrations and decreased retention efficiency. Retention rates were evaluated by a numerical model and found as 28 ± 1% at a flow rate of 31 ml min⁻¹ and 17 ± 1% at 65 ml min⁻¹. The introduction of MPls into soil environments has been noted to modify transport dynamics into soil. As a result, these alterations effects hydrological characteristics of soil, thereby impacting quality of groundwater and agricultural output. The mean absolute error (MAE) of 6% between modeled and observed retention rates suggests minor discrepancies. This study highlights the importance of examining retention efficiency and the accuracy of numerical models in porous media during MPl transport.

Purpose: Post-pandemic management of COVID-19 infections and any emergent outbreaks is as an endemic disease remains a public health concern. Vaccine hesitancy may continue to hamper efforts to respond any new disease outbreaks and future epidemics. This qualitative study aimed to explore factors influencing covid-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy in Kenya too gain deeper insights on this issue. Methods: The study was implemented in Western Kenya using key informant interviews. Fourteen (14) key informants were purposively selected for the study. All interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. Interpretation of findings was done within the framework of the Health Belief Model. Key findings: Knowledge was a critical factor in combatting misinformation and fostering vaccine acceptance among participants in this study. Misinformation included rumors that the vaccine lowers immunity and was intended for population control. Cues to action included influence from political and opinion leaders and observing the loss of life among unvaccinated individuals. Perceived barriers to vaccine uptake included fear of vaccine safety, side effects, long waiting times at that time of our study, fear of contracting the COVID-19 at vaccination sites, family/spousal influence on vaccine uptake and fear of the unknown with the vaccine. Conclusion: Findings from this study provides insight into areas for targeted strategies for managing Covid-19 vaccinations and future pandemics. Within the framework of the Health Belief Model, this study identified salient barriers and facilitators of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy that may be helpful to inform future pandemic response.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

This manuscript employs a surface stress-driven nonlocal model to explore the combined effects of long-range interaction and surface energy on higher vibration modes of functionally graded nanobeams. The nanobeam theory, based on Bernoulli-Euler kinematics, incorporates surface effects such as surface elasticity, surface residual stresses, surface density, and rotary inertia. Hamilton's principle is applied to derive the governing equation with size-dependent considerations. The main outcomes of a parametric investigation, considering four different kinematic boundary conditions (Cantilever, Simply-Supported, Clamped-Pinned, and Doubly-Clamped) while varying the nonlocal parameter and material gradient index, are presented and discussed. Additionally, the normalized natural frequencies for the second, third, fourth and fifth modes of vibrations are provided and analyzed for each case under study. The results underscore the model's effectiveness in capturing surface energy effects on the overall dynamic behavior of functionally graded Bernoulli-Euler nanobeams, offering a cost-effective approach for designing and optimizing nano-scaled structures.

Asymptotic theories for fractional cointegrations have been extensively studied in the context of time series data, with numerous empirical studies and tests developed. However, most of the previously developed testing procedures for fractional cointegration were primarily designed for time series data. This paper proposes a generalized residual-based test for fractionally cointegrated panels with fixed effects. The test development is based on bivariate panel series with the regressor assumed to be fixed across cross-sectional units. The proposed test procedure accommodates any integration order between [0,1], and it is asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the test exhibits better size and power compared to a similar residual-based test across varying sample sizes.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

A new type of artificial block is proposed by modifying the traditional block. Based on the physical model experiment, the wave reflection and run-up characteristics of the new ecological blocks under regular waves were examined, and the influence of the height of the "planting trough" border on the hydrodynamic properties was analyzed. The results indicate that the wave reflection and run-up would decrease with a decrease in the breakwater slope. As wave height increases, wave run-up increases, and the reflection coefficient falls. Wave reflection and run-up increase with an increasing wave period. The relative depth of the water has a smaller impact on the wave reflection than the wave run-up. The reflection coefficient of the new ecological blocks is consistently lower than that of the conventional and continues to decrease as the border of the "planting trough" is raised. The raised borders prevent water loss in the trough, resulting in no significant improvement in the wave run-up performance of the new blocks. The reflection coefficient and the relative run-up R/H gradually increase with the average wave breaking parameter ξ increase. The crude permeability coefficients for the new blocks, New Heights 1 and New Heights 2, are 0.53, 0.53, and 0.54, respectively.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of constitutive equations on the prediction accuracy for springback in cold stamping with various deformation modes. In this study, two types of yield functions—Hill’48 and Yld2000-2d—were considered to describe yield behavior. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models based on the Yoshida–Uemori model were also adopted to describe hardening behavior. Various material tests (such as uniaxial tension, tension- compression, loading-unloading, and hydraulic bulging tests) were carried out to determine the material parameters of the models. The obtained parameters were implemented in the finite element (FE) simulation to predict springback, and the results were compared with experimental data. U-bending and T-shape drawing were employed to evaluate the springback prediction accuracy. Obviously, the springback prediction accuracy was greatly influenced by constitutive equations. Therefore, it is important to choose appropriate constitutive equations for accurate description of material behaviors in FE simulation.

Tourism is the main economic sector in the Balearic Islands (Spain) and hotel housekeepers (HHs) are a large occupational group, in which stress is becoming a major issue. This study aims at exploring in-depth factors perceived as stressors by HHs and key-informants, and their effects on work-life balance (WLB). A qualitative design with phenomenological approach was used, conducting six focus groups with 34 HHs and 10 individual interviews with key-informants. Results were analyzed adopting the job demands-resources model and a gender perspective. High demands –e.g work overload, time pressure, physical burden...-, lack of enough resources and little control –derived from role conflict, unexpected events...- were the most important factors explaining HHs’ stress. Additionally, this imbalance was perceived as leading to health problems –mainly musculoskeletal disorders-. Working schedule was mentioned as a facilitator to WLB, whereas an imbalance between job demands and resources led to work-home conflict –preventing them from enjoying leisure time-. Multiple roles at work and at home increased their stress. HHs experienced their job as invisible and unrecognised. Regarding practical implications, our recommendations for hotel organization include reducing workload and increasing resources, which would improve the job demands-resource balance, diminish negative mental and physical outcomes and improve WLB.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

Abstract: Safety issues related to the electrification of more electric aircraft (MEA) need to be addressed because of the increasing complexity of aircraft electrical power systems and the growing number of safety-critical sub-systems that need to be powered. Managing the energy storage systems and the flexibility in the load-side plays an important role in preserving the system’s safety when facing an energy shortage. This paper presents a system-level centralized operation management strategy based on model predictive control (MPC) for MEA to schedule battery systems and exploit flexibility in the demand-side while satisfying time-varying operational requirements. The proposed online control strategy aims to maintain energy storage (ES) and prolong the battery life cycle, while minimizing load shedding, with fewer switching activities to improve devices lifetime and to avoid unnecessary transients. Using a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation, different objective functions are proposed to realize the control targets, with soft constraints improving the robustness of the model. Besides, an evaluation framework is proposed to analyze the effects of various objective functions and the prediction horizon on system performance, which provides the designers and users of MEA and other complex systems with new insights into operation management problem formulation.

A hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are the proteinaceous aggregates formed by the amyloid-beta peptide (Aβ) that is deposited inside the brain as amyloid plaques. The accumulation of aggregated Aβ may initiate or enhance pathologic processes in AD. According to the amyloid hypothesis any agent that has the capability to inhibit Aβ aggregation and/or destroy amyloid plaques represents a potential disease modifying drug. In 2023, a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody (lecanemab) against the Aβ soluble protofibrils was approved by US FDA for AD therapy thus providing compelling support to the amyloid hypothesis. To acquire a deeper insight on the in vivo Aβ aggregation, various animal models, including aged herbivores and carnivores, non-human primates, transgenic rodents, fish and worms are widely exploited. This review is based on the recent data obtained using transgenic animal AD models and presents experimental verification of the critical role in Aβ aggregation seeding of the interactions between zinc ions, Aβ with the isomerized Asp7 (isoD7- Aβ) and the α4β2 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor.

Our study essentially concerns the dynamic behavior of an SIRS epidemic model in discrete time. Two equilibrium points are obtained; one is disease-free while the other is endemic. We are interested in the endemic fixed point as well as its asymptotic stability. Depending on the parameters which are estimated using the data from US Department of health and SIRS modelling with optimization, two Flip and Transcritical bifurcations appear. We illustrate their diagrams, as well as their bifurcation curves using the method of Carcasses \cite{carcasses1993determination,carcasses1995singularities} for the Flip bifurcation and by an implicit function deduced from such an equation for the Transcritical bifurcation. We use the scanning of the parametric plane to have a global view of the behavior of the model and to highlight the zones of stability of the existing singularities. A superposition of the bifurcation curves with the parametric plane can show the overlap of the curves with the boundaries of the stability domains, which confirms the smooth running of the simulation and its correspondence with the theory, we finish this article with constrained optimal control applied to infection rate and recruitment rate for an SIRS discrete epidemic model. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to determine these optimal controls. Finally using COVID-19 data in the USA, we obtain results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy to mitigate the spread of the pandemic.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

EIMIs face the challenge of adapting to the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal to achieve carbon neutrality. This change is being driven by consumer interest in low-carbon products, regulatory requirements from climate agreements and investors prioritizing sustainability. This pressure is pushing companies to go beyond short-term financial gains and integrate sustainability into their business. The growing awareness of the environmental impact of business models (BM) has fueled the development of Sustainable Business Models (SBMs). This study aims to link the discussion on the role of SBMs in the drivers of decarbonization, to improve the understanding of how the drivers can be integrated and enable new BMs for EIMIs. Based on a structured literature review, semi-structured interviews were conducted in the EIMIs. The study identifies BM-components that are influenced by these drivers and require sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). The results show that decarbonization drivers have a significant impact on all BM components. Experts emphasize the importance of collaborative approaches and cooperation throughout the value chain. This research elaborates on the importance of systematic analysis to understand how companies can effectively manage decarbonization drivers and suggests in-depth exploration within BM-research to uncover potential SBM design options.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

Rising organic charge in northern freshwaters is attributed to increasing levels of Dissolved Natural Organic Matter (DNOM) and shifts in water chemistry. Organic charge concentration may be determined by charge balance calculations (Org.-) or modelled (OAN-) using the conceptual Oliver and Hruška models based on the density of weak acid functional sites (SD) present in DNOM. The charge density (CD) is governed by the SD and protonation and complexation reactions on the functional groups. The models use this SD as a key parameter in empirically fitting the model to Org.-. Utilizing extensive datasets of water chemistry, this study shows that spatial and temporal differences in SD and CD are influenced by variations in the humic-to-fulvic ratio of DNOM and the organic aluminum (Al) complexation, as well as the mole fraction of CD to SD governed by the acidity. Site median SD obtained for 44 long-term monitored acid-sensitive lakes was 11.1 and 13.9 µEq/mg C for the Oliver and the Hruška model, respectively. During the 34 years of monitoring the CD increased by 70%, likely due to rising pH and declining Al complexation with DNOM. Present-day median SD values for the Oliver and Hruška models in 16 low-order streams are 13.8 and 15.8 µEq/mg C, respectively, and 10.8 and 12.5 µEq/mg C, respectively, in 10 high order rivers.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

Seepage erosion is one of the main reasons for the local collapse or instability of embankments. To investigate the characteristics and mechanism of seepage erosion for cohesionless soils, the model tests by using an independently developed seepage erosion device and the numerical simulations based on the Discrete Element Method-Computational Fluid Dynamics (DEM-CFD) coupling model were carried out. The results show that the seepage erosion process of the cohesionless soil can be characterized by four stages: stable seepage stage, fine particles upward migration stage, sand samples boiling stage, and erosion damage stage. The skeleton structure of soil sample under seepage flow is continually changed due to the loss of fine soil particles, which results in a significant decrease in the sample strength and may ultimately lead to the failure of the sample. The results of this study can provide references and bases for the design, construction, and long-term service of embankments or earth dams under the complex seepage condition, reducing the risk of seepage erosion.

The Earth's fresh water resources predominantly is groundwater that is pumped out due to rapid urbanization and aggravated by climate change. Groundwater modeling is a crucial tool for understanding aquifer systems, employing 1D, 2D, and 3D numerical models with distinct applications. One-dimensional models focus on vertical dynamics, examining aquifer properties and simulating vertical contaminant transport. Two-dimensional models extend to regional scales, considering horizontal variations and assessing groundwater-surface water interactions, making them valuable for watershed-scale studies. Three-dimensional models provide a comprehensive representation of hydrogeological systems, capturing intricate flow patterns and aiding site-specific assessments. Comparative analysis reveals model strengths and limitations, emphasizing the importance of calibration for reliable results. Case studies showcase practical applications, such as 1D models in flooding analysis and 2D models for simulating debris flows. Three-dimensional modeling proves essential for understanding complex river-aquifer exchange fluxes. Future directions call for a global groundwater platform to address data variability and technical challenges. Despite substantial investments required, the anticipated returns in scientific advancements, societal benefits, and economic gains are expected to outweigh the initial costs. This review aims in highlighting the significance of advancing all three-dimension groundwater modeling for sustainable water resource management and environmental protection.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

In this paper, the seven traditional models of PV modules are reviewed comprehensively to find out the appropriate model to be reliable. All the models are validated using the Matlab code and make a graphical comparison. The accuracy and convergence of each model are evaluated using data of manufactured PV panels. Then, a novel model is proposed showing its consistent performance. The most three key parameters of single-diode model are self revised to adapt to various type of PV modules. This new method is verified in three types of PV panels' data measured by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US. The validated data show promising results when the error RMSEs' range of the proposed model is under 0.36.

Colleges and universities play a crucial role in fostering innovation, making it essential to explore effective strategies for promoting innovation at the institutional policy level. This paper focuses on the establishment of intellectual property (IP) model cities as a starting point and conducts an empirical analysis using innovation data from 234 cities and 942 colleges and universities between 2007 and 2017. By constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model, this study reveals that the establishment of IP model cities effectively fosters innovation in colleges and universities. Further analysis demonstrates that this promotion effect is particularly significant in the western region, key cities, key colleges and universities, as well as in the fields of invention and utility model patents. These conclusions withstand a series of robustness tests, confirming their validity. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, it is found that the national IP pilot city policy has a substantial impact on university innovation by promoting research and development (R&D) investment and strengthening innovation cooperation. The insights provided by this study offer valuable policy recommendations for leveraging the innovation potential of the IP model city policy, thereby driving economic transformation, upgrading, and fostering innovation development in China.

The cell case temperature versus time profiles of a multistage fast charging technique (4C-1C-CV)/fast discharge (4C) in a 2.3 Ah cylindrical lithium-ion cell are analyzed using a 1D thermal model. Heat generation is dominated by the irreversible component associated to cell overpotential, although evidences of the reversible component are also observed, associated to the heat related to entropy from the electrode reactions. The final charging stages (i.e., 1C-CV) significantly reduce heat generation and cell temperature during charge, resulting in a thermally safe charging protocol. Cell heat capacity was determined from cell specific heats and cell materials thickness. The 1D model adjustment of the experimental data during the 2 min. resting period between discharge and charge allowed us to calculate both the time constant of the relaxation process and the cell thermal resistance. The obtained values of these thermal parameters used in the proposed model are almost equal to those found in the literature for the same cell model, which suggests that the proposed model is suitable for its implementation in thermal management systems.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Guessing effects frequently occur in testing data in educational or psychological applications. Different item response models have been proposed to handle guessing effects in dichotomous test items. However, it has been pointed out in the literature that the oftenemployed three-parameter logistic model poses implausible assumptions regarding the guessing process. The four-parameter guessing model has been proposed as an alternative to circumvent these conceptual issues. In this article, the four-parameter guessing model is compared with alternative item response models for handling guessing effects through a simulation study and an empirical example. It turned out that model selection for item response models should be rather based on the AIC than the BIC. However, the RMSD item fit statistic used with typical cutoff values was found to be ineffective in detecting misspecified item response models. Furthermore, sufficiently large sample sizes are required for sufficiently precise item parameter estimation. Moreover, it is argued that the criterion of statistical model fit should not be the sole criterion of model choice. The item response model used in operational practice should be valid with respect to the meaning of the ability variable and the underlying model assumptions. In this sense, the four-parameter guessing model could be the model of choice in educational large-scale assessment studies.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

Due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of oxygen, the oxygen system of iron- and steel-making enterprises in China has problems with high oxygen emission and high pressure in the pipelines, resulting in the energy consumption of oxygen production being high. To relieve this problem, using a large-scale iron- and steel-making mill as a case study, the research on demand forecasting and optimal scheduling of the oxygen system was carried out. The ARIMA model and the GABP model are employed to forecast oxygen demand. Based on the forecast results, an optimal scheduling model for the oxygen system was developed to conduct optimal scheduling. The case study shows that based on the oxygen demand forecast and the optimal scheduling, the oxygen emission and the pipeline pressure in the studied iron- and steel-making enterprise can be significantly reduced, thereby achieving considerable energy-saving effects and economic benefits. Specifically, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) For the oxygen demand forecast, the prediction accuracy of the GABP model is better than that of the ARIMA model. The average MAPE of the 12 sets of data of the ARIMA and GABP models are 23.8% and 20.2%, respectively. (2) By comparing the scheduling results and the field data, it is found that after the scheduling, the amount of oxygen emission has decreased by 6.32%, the pipeline pressure has decreased by 0.61%, and the energy consumption of oxygen compression has decreased by 1.6%. Considering both the oxygen emission loss and the energy consumption of oxygen compression, the total power consumption of the oxygen system is reduced by 1.38%, which saves the electricity cost of about 9.03 million RMB per year.

Metastases cause high mortality in several cancers and immunotherapies are expected to be effective in the prevention and treatment of metastatic disease. However, only a minority of patients benefit from immunotherapies. This creates a need for novel therapies that are efficacious regardless of the cancer types and metastatic environments they are growing in. Preclinical immuno-oncology models for studying metastases have long been limited to syngeneic or carcinogenesis-inducible models that have murine cancer and immune cells. However, the translational power of these models has been questioned. Interactions between tumor and immune cells are often species-specific and regulated by different cytokines in mice and humans. For increased translational power, mice engrafted with functional parts of human immune system have been developed. These humanized mice are utilized to advance understanding the role of immune cells in the metastatic process, but increasingly also to study the efficacy and safety of novel immunotherapies. From these aspects, this review will discuss the role of immune cells in the metastatic process and the utility of humanized mouse models in immuno-oncology research for metastatic cancers, covering several models from the perspective of efficacy and safety of immunotherapies.

A modified Nambu{Jona-Lasinio Model with lattice structure is very instructive. It shows several similar problems and their solutions as the Lattice QCD. We study the limits of the large box size, small cell size and realistic pion mass. In particular, we study the relation of the discrete (bound state) solutions to the physical scattering states, for example the pion-pion scattering.

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 epidemic model that incorporates five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. Also, numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensure the social and economic stability.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Industrial process control systems commonly exhibit features of time-varying, strong coupling, and strong nonlinearity. Obtaining accurate mathematical models of these nonlinear systems and achieving satisfactory control performance is still a challenging task. In this paper, data-driven modeling techniques and deep learning methods are used to accurately capture a category of smooth nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal features. The operating point of these systems may change over time, and their nonlinear characteristics can be locally linearized. We established the LSTM-CNN-ARX model by utilizing a fusion of long short-term memory (LSTM) network and convolutional neural network (CNN) to fit the coefficients of the state-dependent exogenous variable autoregressive (SD-ARX) model. Compared to other models, the hybrid LSTM-CNN-ARX model is more effective in capturing the nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal characteristics due to its incorporating the strengths of LSTM for learning temporal characteristics and CNN for capturing spatial characteristics. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategy, namely LSTM-CNN-ARX-MPC, is developed by utilizing the model's local linear and global nonlinear features. The control comparison experiments conducted on a water tank system (WTS) show the effectiveness of the developed models and MPC methods.

Essential oils (EO) are a great antimicrobial resource against bacterial resistance in public health. Math models are useful describing the growth, survival, and inactivation of microorganisms against antimicrobials. We evaluated the antimicrobial activity of M. armillaris EO obtained from plants placed in the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) against Staphylococcus aureus. Minimum Inhibitory and Bactericidal Concentrations were close and decreased slightly acidifying the medium from pH 7.4 to 6.5 and 5.0. This result was also evidenced by applying a sigmoid model, where the time and EO concentration necessaries to achieve 50% of the maximum effect decreased when medium was acidified. Moreover, at pH 7.4, applying the Gompertz model, we found that subinhibitory concentrations of EO decreased the growth rate and the maximum population density, and increased the latency period respect to the control. Additionally, we established physicochemical parameters for quality control and standardization of M. armillaris EO. Mathematical modelling allowed us to estimate key parameters in the behavior of S. aureus and Melaleuca armillaris EO at different pHs. This is interesting in situations where the pH changes are relevant, such as the control of intracellular infections in public health or the development of preservatives for food industry.

There is no method of predicting the price of an option other than hedging strategies such as the binomial hedging strategy, the Black-Scholes hedging strategy and others. The price of an option is defined to be equal to the amount the seller needs to implement a hedging strategy. We will study these two basic hedging strategies in terms of their feasibility and we will see that the Black-Scholes hedging strategy is not feasible because this strategy demands instantaneously rebuilding the replicating portfolio. Consequently, the real world prices of the options are not relevant at all with the Black-Scholes hedging strategy! We will suitably redefine the binomial hedging strategy so that it will be practically useful and present other feasible and generally more effective hedging strategies with some of them are practically useful for options with no tradable underlying assets. Finally, we will mention some open questions related to the above.

Preeclampsia is a multifactorial cardiovascular disorder diagnosed after 20 weeks of gestation that is the leading cause of death for both mothers and babies in pregnancy. The pathophysiology remains poorly understood due to variability and unpredictability of disease manifestation when studied in animal models. After preeclampsia, both mothers and offspring have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) including myocardial infarction or heart attack and heart failure (HF). Myocardial infarction is an acute myocardial damage that can be treated through reperfusion, however, that therapeutic approach leads to ischemic/reperfusion injury (IRI) often leading to HF. In this review, we compared the current in vivo, in vitro and ex vivo model systems used to study preeclampsia, IRI and HF. Future studies aiming at evaluating CVD in preeclampsia patients could benefit from novel models that better mimic the complex scenario described in this article.

While considering the sensitivity over the parameter optimization, it is essential to determine which parameters have the most significant implications on model performance. This study focuses on the baseflow recession constant as one of the independent basin parameters to forecast low flows, perform hydrograph analysis, and calibrate rainfall-runoff models for significant improvement. Prior studies examined that the optimization of data adjustment parameters can improve the hydrological model performance and determine the minimum acceptable data length for data scarce regions using the Xinanjaing model. However, it is essential to pay special attention to the sensitivity of the recession constant, which can also impact the model performance during the data scarcity. Therefore, this study extends the research to comprehend the recession constant sensitivity over data adjustment parameters in the shorter datasets leading to more reliable parameter estimation. In terms of that, this study explores how recession constant affects hydrological parameter estimation on annual scale while keeping data adjustment parameters constant in continuous hydrological modeling, employing the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model as a case study. This study considered two approaches of recession constant (cg); (i) assessing the relationship between cg and the data adjustment parameter (Cep), for the 28-year datasets, (ii) investigating the significant impacts of the sensitivity of cg over Cep in shorter datasets which can affect the estimation of the acceptable minimum data length in the data scarce basins. The study underscores the importance of the recession constant sensitivity for reliable continuous hydrological model predictions, especially in data-scared areas. The study’s outcomes enhance the understanding of the importance of parameter sensitivity and its relationship in conceptual hydrological modeling during the data limitations.

Irrigation and fertilization are indispensable links in the jujube planting industry in southern Xinjiang, China. However, the water and fertilizer integration effects on jujube growth and fruit quality remain unclear. A two-year water and fertilizer optimization coupling test was conducted to determine the optimal water- and nutrient-supply scheme. The three-factor randomized block experiment included water (W), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). According to the principal component analysis of each index, each treatment’s comprehensive score was obtained. Using yield and economic regression models, the theoretical value and yield value of the optimal economic benefit are inferred. When W, N, and P were applied together, the fruit quality and yield of each treatment significantly differed, and the vitamin C, soluble sugar, and sugar–acid ratio increased significantly with an increase in nitrogen fertilizer. However, the titratable acid decreased. An increase in irrigation and nitrogen application significantly increased fruit yield. The comprehensive score was the highest in the N3P3W2 treatment, which improved fruit quality, and the lowest in the N4P3W2 treatment. When the amounts of N, P, and W were 275.56 kg·hm-2, 413.66 kg·hm-2, and 7278.19 m3·hm-2, respectively, the theoretical economic benefit was the best. The N4P3W2 treatment is the optimal treatment.

Optimal operation of petroleum production is important in a transition from energy systems based on fossil fuel to sustainable systems. One sub-process in petroleum production deals with transport from the (subsea) well-bore to a topside separator. A simple model in [] of Electric Submersible Pump [ESP] lifted production was previously streamlined into a dynamic model suitable for illustration of the dynamics of oil transport, as well for control studies, with some comparison of two popular modeling languages: Modelica, and ModelingToolkit for Julia, []. Here, the discussion on dimensionless equipment models goes into more detail, and the comparison between Modelica and ModelingToolkit is significantly expanded upon with code comparison, numerical performance, and more experiments. Some added possibilities with ModelingToolkit and Julia wrt. sensitivity analysis and control design is included.

Pancreatic cancer represents one of the difficult problems of contemporary medicine. The development illness evolves very slowly, takes place in special sake (stroma) and manifests clinically close to a final stage. Another feature of this pathology is a coexistence (symbiotic) effect between cancer cells and normal cells inside stroma. All these aspects make it difficult to understand the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer and develop a proper therapy. The emergence of pancreatic pre-cancer and cancer cells represents a branching stochastic process engaging populations of 64 cells differing in the number of acquired mutations. In this study we formulate and calibrate the mathematical model of pancreatic cancer using the quasispecies framework. The mathematical model incorporates the mutation matrix, fineness landscape matrix and the death rates. Each element of the mutation matrix presents the probability of appearing a specific mutation in the branching sequence of cells representing the accumulation of mutations. The model incorporates the cancer cell elimination by effect CD8 T cells (CTL). The down-regulation of the effector function of CTLs and exhaustion are parameterized. The symbiotic effect of coexistence of normal and cancer cells is considered. The computational predictions obtained with the model are consistent with empirical data. The modelling approach can be used to investigate other types of cancers and examine various treatment procedures.

Karst wetlands are being seriously damaged, and protecting it has become an important matter. Karst vegetation is the essential component of wetland and plays an important role in in the ecological functions of wetland ecosystems. Classifying karst vegetation is important for karst wetlands protection and management. This paper addressed to classify karst vegetation in Huixian National Wetland Park, located in China using the improved SegNet Deep-Learning Algorithm and UAV images. This study proposed a method to fuse single-class SegNet models using the maximum probability algorithm for karst vegetation classification, and compared with object-based RF classification and multi-class SegNet classification, respectively. This paper evaluated the performance of multi-class SegNet model and fusion of single-class SegNet model with different EPOCH values for mapping karst vegetation. A new optimized post-classification algorithm was proposed to eliminate the stitching traces caused by SegNet model prediction. The specific conclusions of this paper include the followings:(1) fusion of four single-class SegNet models produced better classification for karst wetland vegetation than multi-class SegNet model, and achieved the highest overall classification accuracy (87.34%); (2) The optimized post-classification algorithm was able to improve prediction accuracy of SegNet model, and it could eliminate splicing traces; (3) The karst wetland vegetation classifications produced by single-class SegNet model outperformed multi-class SegNet model, and improved classification accuracy(F1-Score) between 10%~25%;(4)The EPCOH values and textural feature important impact on karst wetland vegetation classifications. The SegNet model with EPCOH 15 achieved greater classification accuracy(F1-Score) than the model with EPOCH 5 or 10. The textural feature improved improves the capability of the SegNet model for mapping karst vegetation;(5) Fusion of single-class SegNet models and object-based RF model could provide high classifications results for karst wetland vegetation, and both achieved greater 87% overall accuracy.

In this contribution, we aim to show that opinion dynamics and population balance modeling can benefit from an exchange of problems and methods. To support this claim, the Deffuant-Weisbuch model, a classical approach in opinion dynamics, is formulated as a population balance model. This new formulation is subsequently analyzed in terms of moment equations, and conservation of the first and second order moment is shown. Exemplary results obtained by our formulation are presented and agreement with the original model is found. Also the influence of the initial distribution is studied. Additionally, the Deffuant-Weisbuch model is transferred to engineering and interpreted as mass transfer between liquid droplets which results in a more flexible formulation compared to alternatives from the literature. On the one hand, it is concluded that the transfer of opinion-dynamics problems to the domain of population balance modeling offers some interesting insights as well as stimulating challenges for the population-balance community. On the other hand, it is inferred that population-balance methods can contribute to the solution of problems in opinion dynamics. In a broad outlook, some further possibilities of how the two fields can possibly benefit from a close interaction are outlined.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Symmetry concepts in parametrized dynamical systems may reduce the number of external parameters by a suitable normalization prescription. If, under the action of a symmetry group G, parameter space A becomes a (locally) trivial principal bundle, A ~ A/G x G, then the normalized dynamics only depends on the quotient A/G. In this way, the dynamics of fractional variables in homogeneous epidemic SI(R)S models, with standard incidence, absence of R-susceptibility and compartment independent birth and death rates, turns out to be isomorphic to (a marginally extended version of) Hethcote's classic endemic model, first presented in 1973. The paper studies a 10-parameter master model with constant and I -linear vaccination rates, vertical transmission and a vaccination rate for susceptible newborns. As recently shown by the author, all demographic parameters are redundant. After adjusting time scale, the remaining 5-parameter model admits a 3-dimensional abelian scaling symmetry. By normalization we end up with Hethcote's extended 2-parameter model. Thus, in view of symmetry concepts, reproving theorems on endemic bifurcation and stability in such models becomes needless.

In this paper, we consider an epidemiological Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the individuals cured from the infection return back into the group of people endangered by the infection. Delay differential equations were introduced to create more realistic models since many processes depend on past history. Many different mathematical methods, including the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model as well as derivatives thereof, can be used to prognose the spread of many various infectious diseases, including Covid-19.We use a nonlinear differential system with time delay as a mathematical formulation of this model. It is examined by the existence of a positive solution which is bounded by two functions $k_1, k_2\in C([t_0,\infty),(0,\infty))$ with constants $\lambda_1 > 0,\,\lambda_2 > 0$ where $0<\lambda_1\leq \lambda_2$. The conditions are put in place for existence of a positive solution that approaches zero in infinity, if $t\to\infty$. Infectious diseases accompany a person throughout their entire life, and in the history of mankind often appeared in frequent epidemics caused high mortality. The occurrence of infectious diseases in the population represents a serious health, social and economic problem. There is a lot of ambiguity concerning the time span and final spread of the epidemic thus making it very demanding for the governing bodies, healthcare institutions, and economic sector to precisely judge the future development.Several examples are shown at the end of this paper.

Green ICT has received significant attention in organizations to reduce global warming since last decade. Several maturity models have been proposed for tracking green ICT practices in organizations. Current literature shows that SMEs around the world try to follow some common strategies such as virtualization, consolidation of devices, energy efficiency and disposal of ICT equipment for greening ICT. The increasing interest for green ICT practices in organizations is not only due to the desire to attain environment-friendly atmosphere but mainly because of sustaining business goals such as cost reduction, competitive advantages and stakeholders’ pressure. Nevertheless, due to the lack of green ICT knowledge, organizations, specially SMEs, tend to ignore those practices. Therefore, this research proposes a framework that provides combination of existing green and sustainable ICT maturity models by mapping them with the strategies the businesses are already following. Out of this framework, a web application has been developed that provides questionnaire for SMEs to identify their present situation of green ICT practices and guidelines for improvement. The results have been analyzed by testing the application in some SMEs of Finland and Bangladesh. Finally, a survey has been conducted to attain SMEs’ perception about the possibility of sustainable development of businesses through this application.

Head and neck cancer is the sixth most frequent cancer type. Drug resistance and toxicity are common challenges of the existing therapies, making the development of reliable preclinical models essential for the study of the involved molecular mechanisms as well as for eventual intervention approaches that improve the clinical outcome. Preclinical models of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma have been traditionally based in cell lines and murine models. In this review, we will go over the most frequently used preclinical models, from immortalized-cell and primary tumour cultures in monolayer or 3D, to the currently available animal models. We will scrutinize their efficiency in mimicking the molecular and cellular complexity of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Finally, the challenges and opportunities of other envisaged putative approaches, as well as the potential of the preclinical models to further develop customized therapies will be discussed.

Este estudio empleó el algoritmo MaxEnt para evaluar la distribución potencial de la serpiente de cascabel de cola larga, Crotalus stejnegeri , una especie amenazada endémica de México. Los resultados demuestran una buena fiabilidad del modelo, alcanzando un AUC de 0,879. Destacan una distribución potencial concentrada en las estribaciones de la Sierra Madre Occidental, principalmente en el centro-sur de Sinaloa, suroeste de Durango y norte de Nayarit, caracterizada por bosque seco tropical. La temperatura durante el trimestre más seco y la estacionalidad de la precipitación se identifican como factores determinantes, mientras que la baja idoneidad en Chihuahua sugiere una afinidad tropical de la especie. La variabilidad en las precipitaciones durante el trimestre más frío enfatiza la importancia de ampliar el número de registros de ocurrencia de la especie mediante una mayor exploración de campo dentro de su área de distribución. Estos hallazgos proporcionan información valiosa para los esfuerzos de conservación y subrayan áreas clave para futuras investigaciones.

This study aims to identify the model that best approximates the credit spread that should be fixed on debt instruments issued by both public and private companies, considering the particularities of the Mexican market. Five models were analyzed: Merton's [1], those proposed by Denzler et al., the one presented in this paper, which includes the conformable derivatives, taking as a reference the change of variable made by Morales-Bañuelos et al., and the Corporate Default Risk Model (DRSK) for Publics Firms of Bloomberg [4]. The required financial information was obtained from the Bloomberg platform, from which the probabilities of default, credit spreads, and credit ratings for each company in the sample under the model (DRSK) were extracted directly. Likewise, the program developed by Moody's K.M.V. was used to obtain the EDF (Expected Default Frequencies). It was concluded that the Modified Merton model approximates to a greater extent the credit spreads that fix on a prime rate on the loans granted to the Mexican non-financial companies.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) raise quality employability, gender equity in access to employment and increase coverage in education, however, in Colombia, high unemployment rates and informality of young people are risks of fulfilling these objectives. This is verified by a study with cohorts on access to employment, labor mobility and entry to quality occupations, through the use of probabilistic models. This study found that young people are less likely to be employed than adults, education has increased in the new generations and allowing them to enter a higher quality occupation, job segmentation and lack of experience of young people are the main cause of unemployment and Women are less likely to be employed than men and to do so in quality jobs. To comply with the SDGs, you must increase coverage in education, make a differential gender policy and expand programs as learners and insert dual education.

Estimating ground surface PM2.5 with fine spatiotemporal resolution is a critical technique for exposure assessments in epidemiological studies of its health risks. Previous studies have utilized monitoring, satellite remote sensing or air quality modeling data to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations, but such studies rarely combined these data simultaneously. We develop a three-stage model to fuse PM2.5 monitoring data, satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) simulations together and apply it to estimate daily PM2.5 at a spatial resolution of 0.1˚ over China. Performance of the three-stage model is evaluated using a cross-validation (CV) method step by step. CV results show that the finally fused estimator of PM2.5 is in good agreement with the observational data (RMSE = 23.00 μg/m^3 and R2 = 0.72) and outperforms either AOD-retrieved PM2.5 (R2 = 0.62) or CMAQ simulations (R2 = 0.51). According to step-specific CVs, in data fusion, AOD-retrieved PM2.5 plays a key role to reduce mean bias, whereas CMAQ provides all-spacetime-covered predictions, which avoids sampling bias caused by non-random incompleteness in satellite-derived AOD. Our fused products are more capable than either CMAQ simulations or AOD-based estimates in characterizing the polluting procedure during haze episodes and thus can support both chronic and acute exposure assessments of ambient PM2.5. Based on the products, averaged concentration of annual exposure to PM2.5 was 55.75 μg/m3, while averaged count of polluted days (PM2.5 > 75 μg/m3) was 81, across China during 2014. Fused estimates will be publicly available for future health-related studies.

For the emerging autonomous swarm technology, from the perspective of systems science and systems engineering, there must be some novel elements and methods to aggregate multiple systems into a group, which distinguish with the general components with specific functions, and we expect to provide the presentation of their existence in the swarm development processes. The inspiration of our methodology origins from the integration of swarm ontology, multi-paradigm modeling, multi-agent system, cyber-physical system, etc. Therefore, we choose the model-driven technology as a framework to acquire an approach of model representation across the multiple levels of abstraction and composition. The autonomous strategic mechanism is defined and formed in parallel with ConOps analysis and systems design, so as to effectively solve the cognitive problem of emergence caused by the nonlinear causation among individual and whole behaviors. This approach highlights to use the MBSE processes and their artifacts to embed the meso mechanism to integrate the operational and the functional, and which means to connect the macro and micro aspects in formalism and so to become a whole with its expected goals, and then to verify and validate within a L-V-C simulation environment.

This paper presents some results from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a multi-megawatt crosswind kite spinning on a circular path in a straight downwind configuration. The unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations closed by the k−ω SST turbulence model are solved in the three-dimensional space using ANSYS Fluent. The flow behaviour is examined at the rotation plane, and the overall (or global) induction factor is obtained by getting the weighted average of induction factors on multiple annuli over the swept area. The wake flow behaviour is also discussed in some details using velocity and pressure contour plots. In addition to the CFD model, an analytical model for calculating the average flow velocity and radii of the annular wake downstream of the kite is developed. The model is formulated based on the widely-used Jensen’s model (Technical Report Risø-M; No. 2411, 1983), which was developed for conventional wind turbines, and thus has a simple form. Expressions for the dimensionless wake flow velocity and wake radii are obtained by assuming self-similarity of flow velocity and linear wake expansion. Comparisons are made between numerical results from the analytical model and those from the CFD simulation. The level of agreement was found to be reasonably good. Such computational and analytical models are indispensable for kite farm layout design and optimization, where aerodynamic interactions between kites should be considered.

We review and assess the classic SIR and SEIR epidemiological models regarding possible applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of numerous more complicated models, we show how the qualitative features of the solution to the SIR and SEIR models continue to provide valuable public health insights in some scenarios. Using estimated COVID-19 data as of this date, the SEIR model shows that if it were possible to reduce R₀ from 2.5 to 1.25 through social distancing and other measures, the maximum fraction of the population that would become infected at any particular time would drop from 17% to 4%, provided that all of the model assumptions are satisfied. Finally, we compare the classic SIR model with a recent stochastic model with favorable results. Since this comparison underscores the importance of underlying connectivity assumptions, we conclude with Monte-Carlo simulations with specific connectivity that reproduce the classical SIR model with standard incidence.

The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Method: The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Results: This case is relevant for the authors by the way the business model proposed by the startup attempts to democratize Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in industrial environments. This way the startup delivers value to facilitate traditional industries to obtain better operational results, and contribute to a better use of resources. Conclusion: This work is focused on opportunities that arise around Artificial Intelligence as a driver for new business and operating models. Besides the paper looks into the framework of the adoption of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in a traditional industrial environment towards a smart manufacturing approach.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

This study employs the FLACS code to analyze hydrogen leakage, vapor dispersion, and subsequent explosions. Utilizing pseudo-source models, a liquid pool model, and a hybrid model combining both, we investigate dispersion processes for varying leak mass flow rates (0.225 kg/s and 0.73 kg/s) in a large open space. We also evaluate explosion hazards based on overpressure and impulse effects on humans. The computational results, compared with experimental data, demonstrated reasonable hydrogen vapor cloud concentration predictions, especially aligned with the wind direction. For higher mass flow rate of 0.73 kg/s, the pseudo-source model and hybrid model proved appropriate, while the liquid pool model was more suitable for lower mass flow rate of 0.225 kg/s. Regarding explosion analyses using overpressure-impulse diagram, higher mass flow rates leaded to potentially fatal overpressure and impulse effects on humans. However, lower mass flow rates may cause severe eardrum damage at the maximum overpressure point.

Since the 20th century, Japan has experienced a period of very rapid urbanization. Cities have experienced substantial densification and expansion, resulting in gradually elevated flood risk. Urban flooding has also occurred in most large cities in Japan, particularly in Tokyo. In response to this growing problem, much effort and resources have been spent on research and development aimed at understanding, simulating, and managing urban flood risk in Japan. The objective of this review is to summarize, discuss and share key outputs from some of the main research directions in this field, significant parts of which have been uniquely developed in Japan and only published in Japanese. After a general introduction to urban runoff modelling, in the next section, key historical works in Japan are summarized, followed by a description of the situation in Japan with respect to observations of precipitation and water level. Then, the storage function model approach is reviewed, including an extension to urban basins, as well as recent experiments with AI-based emulation in Japanese basins. Subsequently, we review the prospects of detailed hydrodynamic modelling involving high-resolution, vector-based Geographical Information System (GIS) data for the optimal description of the urban environment with applications in Tokyo. We conclude the paper with some future prospects related to urban flood risk modelling and assessment in Japan.

Polarization in online social networks has gathered a significant amount of attention in the research community and in the public sphere due to stark disagreements with millions of participants in topics surrounding politics, climate, the economy and other areas where an agreement is required. There are multiple approaches to investigating the scenarios in which polarization occurs and given that polarization is not a new phenomenon but that its virality may be supported by the low cost and latency messaging offered by online social media platforms; an investigation into the intrinsic dynamics of online opinion evolution is presented for complete networks. Extending a model which utilizes the Binary Voter Model (BVM) to examine the effect of the degree of freedom for selecting contacts based upon homophily, simulations show that different opinions are reinforced for a period of time when users have a greater range of choice for association. The facility of discussion threads and groups formed upon common views further delays the rate in which a consensus can form between all members of the network. This can temporarily incubate members from interacting with those who can present an alternative opinion where a voter model would then proceed to produce a homogeneous opinion based upon pairwise interactions.

Stellar heated gas and dust makes a significant entropic/information energy contribution to the universe. At temperatures ~10⁷ the ~10⁸⁶ bits are equivalent to ~10⁷⁰J, equivalent to the energy equivalence of the universe’s ~10⁵³ kg ordinary baryon matter. A survey of stellar mass density measurements shows this dark energy contribution has a constant energy density that effectively mimics a cosmological constant over the redshift range z<1.35. The measurable difference between this information energy and a true cosmological constant is small, with a maximum difference of <2% in Hubble parameter at z~2. As information energy is significant and co-located with hot baryons it produces gravitational effects that resemble dark matter. Information energy is shown to be consistent with the dark matter effects observed in clusters of colliding galaxies (e.g. Bullet Cluster), with dark matter location specified by baryon location and strongest in regions of highest luminosity / temperature. The dark matter fraction measured in galaxy surveys more closely fits an information energy explanation than the fraction expected in the standard ɅCDM model. Information energy provides a solution to the cosmological coincidence problem and also would allow the cosmological constant to take the preferred zero value.

This paper describes a memory model with 2 levels of information. The lower-level stores source data, is Markov-like and unweighted. Then an upper-level ontology is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information, by transposing from an ensemble to a hierarchy at each level. The ontology is useful for search processes and the aggregating process transposes the information from horizontal set-based sequences to more vertical typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be sent by the calling module. This therefore allows different weight sets to be imposed on the same linking structure. The success of the ontology typing is open to interpretation, but the author would suggest that when clustering text, the result was types based more on use and context, for example, 'linking' with 'structure' or 'provide' with 'web,' for a document describing distributed service-based networks. This allows the system to economise over symbol use, where links to related symbols will be clustered together. The author then conjectures that a third level would be more neural in nature and would include functions or operations to be performed on the data, along with related memory information.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has inflicted significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. Continuous virus mutations have led to the emergence of new variants. The Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage prevailed as the dominant variant globally at the beginning of 2022 but was subsequently replaced by BA.2 in numerous countries. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) offers an efficient tool for capturing viral shedding from infected individuals, enabling early detection of potential pandemic outbreaks without relying solely on community cooperation and clinical testing resources. This study integrated RT-qPCR assays for detecting general SARS-CoV-2 and its variants levels in wastewater into a modified triple susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model. The emergence of the Omicron-BA.1 variant was observed, replacing the presence of its predecessor, the Delta variant. Comparative analysis between the wastewater data and the modified SIRS model effectively described the BA.1 and subsequent BA.2 waves, with the decline of the Delta variant aligning with its diminished presence below the detection threshold in wastewater. This study demonstrates the potential of WBE as a valuable tool for future pandemics. Furthermore, by analyzing the sensitivity of different variants to model parameters, we are able to deduce real-life values of cross-variant immunity probabilities, emphasizing the asymmetry in their strength.

This article shows that the recently proposed latent D-scoring model of Dimitrov is statistically equivalent to the two-parameter logistic item response model. An analytical derivation and a numerical illustration are employed for demonstrating this finding. Hence, estimation techniques for the two-parameter logistic model can be used for estimating the latent D-scoring model. In an empirical example using PISA data, differences of country ranks are investigated when using different metrics for the latent trait. In the example, the choice of the latent trait metric matters for the ranking of countries. Finally, it is argued that an item response model with bounded latent trait values like the latent D-scoring model might have advantages for reporting results in terms of interpretation.

This article aims to solve the problem of robust supervision of a reverse osmosis desalination system (RO-DS) with two models, external model and bond graph model. The structure of an industrial system from the point of view of the external model operates according to several modes of operation (degraded and normal). For this external model, we cannot locate the faults since we are talking about a global operation of the system. The possible solution for the development of research was to use the multidisciplinary model called bond graph. This model by its graphic nature and using a unified language makes it possible to model the industrial system element by element from where it helps the user not only to detect the faults but also to locate them when they appear in the system. The results suggest that the use of the bond graph model for alarm 02 is a reverse osmosis error (RO1); these phenomena are readable on the bond graph model and can be quantified by equations. The equation of the model of this reverse osmosis (RO1) is found in the residual equations (r5, r6 and r7), so that these residues will be sensitive to this rupture. The possible solution during research development was to use the bond graph model to supplement information with physical knowledge and to locate faults. This article also describes the operating safety (by minimizing false alarms and non-detections as well as delays in fault detection) of the desalination system by using the bond graph model described in Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) form for enable it to manage the robust supervision of a desalination system. An approach based on (LFT-BG) is developed to monitor tank leakage (Cu) and reverse osmosis (RO1 and RO2) faults or valve level (V1 and V2) closures and membrane clogging reverse osmosis (Rm1 and Rm2) that can occur in the reverse osmosis desalination system (RO-DS).

Predictions of mean values of statistical variables of large scale turbulent flow by the widely used basic k-ϵ model and a new fundamentally based model are verified against published results of Direct Numerical Simulations DNS of the Navier-Stokes equations. The verification concerns turbulent channel flow at shear Reynolds numbers of 950, 2000 and 104. The basic k-ϵ model is largely based on empirical formulations accompanied by calibration constants. This contrasts with the new model where descriptions of leading statistical quantities are based on the general principles of statistical turbulence at large Reynolds number. Predicted values of major output variables such as turbulent viscosity, diffusivity of passive admixture, temperature, and fluid velocities compare well with DNS in case of the new model. Significant differences are seen in case of the basic k-ϵ model.

Social networks have become the scenario with the greatest potential for the circulation of disinformation, hence there is a growing interest in understanding how this type of information is spread, especially in relation to the mechanisms used by disinformation agents such as bots, trolls, among others. In this scenario, the potential of bots to facilitate the spread of disinformation is recognised, however, the analysis of how they do this is still in its initial stages. Taking into consideration what was previously stated, this paper aimed to model and simulate scenarios of disinformation propagation in social networks caused by bots based on the dynamics of this mechanism documented in the literature. For achieving the purpose, System dynamics was used as the main modelling technique. The results present a mathematical model, as far as disinformation by this mechanism is concerned, and the simulations carried out against the increase in the rate of activation and deactivation of bots. Thus, the preponderant role of social networks in controlling disinformation through this mechanism, and the potential of bots to affect citizens, is recognised.

A series of novel isobutylchalcones (A1-A20) were prepared, evaluated for their cytotoxic activity and characterized by FTIR, ¹H NMR, ¹³C NMR, and elemental analysis data. The logic behind the design is to synthesize and compare chalcones containing electron releasing lipophilic isobutyl substituent on aromatic ring A and the B ring with aromatic ring containing a range of electron releasing and electron withdrawing groups as well as heteroaromatic rings for their cytotoxic activity. The compounds were tested against HT-29 (colon cancer), MCF-7 (breast cancer) and DU-145 (prostate cancer) cell lines using methotrexate (IC₅₀ 12 ± 1 (HT-29), 9 ±1 (MCF-7) 5 ± 1 (DU-145)) as reference standard. Compound A6 having 2,4-difluorphenyl moiety was most potent of the series against all the three cell lines and notably A6 was mainly effective against DU-145 cell lines with an IC₅₀ value of 18 µg/mL. The critical structural features required for the activity against all the cell lines were identified through pharmacophore model using PHASE^TM which has recognised a 5 point AHHRR model and is consistent with the cytotoxic activity of the tested compounds.

Analysis of Fatigue Strain, Fatigue Modulus and Fatigue Damage for the modeling of concrete plays a vital role in the evolution material behaviour which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature. In this paper, the Level-S nonlinear fatigue strain curve, fatigue modulus curve, residual strain curve of concrete in compression, tension, flexure and torsional fatigue loading were proposed using strain life approach. The parameters such as physical meaning, the ranges, and the impact on the shape of the curve were discussed. Then, the evolution model of fatigue modulus was established based on the fatigue strain evolution model, fatigue modulus evaluation model, residual strain evaluation model, secondary strain evaluation model. The hypothesis of fatigue modulus is inversely related with the fatigue strain amplitude. The fatigue evolution of concrete damages the bond between material grains, changed the orientation of structure of molecules and affects the elastic properties resulting in the reduction of material stiffness and modulus by utilizing strain life analysis, regarding stiffness degradation and inelastic deformation by formation of microcracking, macro cracking, cracking which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature . This paper presents the Fatigue Strain Life Model and analyses of fatigue strain, fatigue modulus and damage parameters of concrete which is capable of predicting stiffness degradation, inelastic deformation, strength reduction under fatigue loading. Hence, the obtainable results were compared with experimental results for the validation of the proposed model.

Background: Little is known about the decisional background of choosing an appropriate disease model. Therefore, this paper aims, (1) to identify a spectrum of reasons for choosing between animal and non-animal disease models and (2) provides an ethical analysis of these reasons. Methods: 13 researchers from basic and preclinical research were interviewed, the interviews were analyzed qualitatively and the results were categorized. The ethical analysis was based on the principlism approach and a value judgement model. Results: This paper presents 66 reasons why researchers use animal (41 %) or alternative, non-animal disease models (59 %). Most of the reasons were be assigned to the work environment (29 reasons) and scientific standards (22 reasons). Other reasons were assigned to personal attitudes (11 reasons) and animal welfare (4 reasons). Qualitative relevant normative differences are presented in the ethical analysis. Even if few reasons can be rejected outright from an ethical point of view, there are good reasons to give some more weight than others. Conclusions: The spectrum of reasons and its ethical assessment provide a framework for reflection for researchers who may have to choose between animal models and (investing in) alternatives. This can help to reflect on and justify decisions.

The paper presents the observational, remote sensing and model simulation to analyze Southern Brazil Antarctic Ozone Hole influence (SBAOHI) events occurred between 2005 and 2014. To an-alyze it we use Total Ozone Column (TOC) data provide by Brewer Spectrophotometer (BS) and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) instrument satellite, besides the AURA/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) instrument satellite ozone profiles was utilized with DYBAL (Dynamical Barrier Localization) code in MIMOSA (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Mésoéchelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection) model Potential Vorticity (PV) fields. TOC has 7.0 ± 2.9 DU re-ductions average in 62 events. October have more events (30.7%). Polar Tongue events are 19.3% of total, being in October more frequently observed (50% of cases), with medium intensity (58.2%) and in stratosphere medium levels (55.0%). Already Polar Filament events (80.7%) are more frequent in September (32.0%), medium intensity (42.0%) and in stratosphere medium lev-els (40.7%). ENSO index positive phase influenced 61.3% of events, having dominance in all in-tensity categories (minor 57.9%, medium 51.6%, major 58.3%), while the equilibrium dominate the QBO influence with 50% of total cases in positive phase and 50 % in negative phase.

This article aims to serve as a guide for the construction of supply chain simulation models designed with a lean approach, using Promodel software. To achieve this, a supply chain was designed for a fictitious company located in the City of Celaya, Guanajuato and a set of suppliers located in different cities within the same State. It was used as a google tool to define the distances between each of the companies. As a final result, a representative model of a supply chain was obtained, as well as a methodology that allows the construction of lean supply chains regardless of the number of companies that comprise it. The effect of the variability in the delivery times between suppliers was incorporated into the simulation model, as well as an equation that calculates the pollution emissions of the vehicles that integrate the network that moves the products between the companies. With this work it is possible to represent networks of supply chains of real world companies, where the variability and contamination factor is included, to facilitate the decision making regarding the number of vehicles, inventory levels, quantities to be shipped, frequency in the shipments, etc. with the purpose of contaminating as little as possible and at the same time preventing interruptions in the supply chain using the least amount of resources possible.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.