Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model

Matilde Fondriest
* ,
Lorenzo Vaccari
,
Federico Aldrovandi
,
Laura De Lellis
,
Filippo Ferretti
,
Carmine Fiorentino
,
Erica Mari
,
Maria Grazia Mascolo
,
Laura Minelli
,
Vincenza Perlangeli
,
Giuseppe Bortone
,
Paolo Pandolfi
,
Annamaria Colacci
,
Andrea Ranzi
ORCID logo
Version 1 : Received: 8 April 2024 / Approved: 8 April 2024 / Online: 8 April 2024 (14:48:16 CEST)

How to cite: Fondriest, M.; Vaccari, L.; Aldrovandi, F.; De Lellis, L.; Ferretti, F.; Fiorentino, C.; Mari, E.; Mascolo, M.G.; Minelli, L.; Perlangeli, V.; Bortone, G.; Pandolfi, P.; Colacci, A.; Ranzi, A. Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model. Preprints 2024, 2024040538. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.0538.v1 Fondriest, M.; Vaccari, L.; Aldrovandi, F.; De Lellis, L.; Ferretti, F.; Fiorentino, C.; Mari, E.; Mascolo, M.G.; Minelli, L.; Perlangeli, V.; Bortone, G.; Pandolfi, P.; Colacci, A.; Ranzi, A. Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model. Preprints 2024, 2024040538. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.0538.v1

Abstract

The study investigated the application of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) as a tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a city in Northern Italy from October 2021 to May 2023. Starting from a widely applied deterministic model, this study proposed a variation to take into account population characteristics and virus biodegradation in the sewer network. The model calculated virus loads and corresponding COVID-19 cases over time in different areas of the city and was validated with healthcare data while considering viral mutations, vaccinations, and testing variability. The correlation between the predicted and reported cases was high across the three waves that occurred in the considered period, demonstrating the model’s capacity to predict relevant fluctuations in the number of cases. Population characteristics did not substantially influence the predicted and reported infection rates. Conversely, biodegradation significantly reduced the virus load reaching the wastewater treatment plant, resulting in a 30% reduction in the total virus load produced in the study area. This approach can be applied for comparing virus load values across cities with varying population demographics and sewer network structures, enhancing the comparability of WBE data for effective surveillance and intervention strategies.

Keywords

Wastewater-based epidemiology; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; wastewater; biodegradation; sewer network; spatiotemporal model; public health; early-warning system

Subject

Public Health and Healthcare, Public, Environmental and Occupational Health

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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