COVID-19 Epidemic Compartments Model and Bangladesh

Md. Shahidul Islam; Jannatun Irana Ira; K. M. Ariful Kabir; Md. Kamrujjaman

doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0193.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 10 April 2020 / Approved: 12 April 2020 / Online: 12 April 2020 (14:21:13 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 22 May 2020 / Approved: 23 May 2020 / Online: 23 May 2020 (10:47:33 CEST)

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 epidemic model that incorporates five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. Also, numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensure the social and economic stability.

coronavirus; epidemic model; global pandemic; COVID-19; SEII$_s$R model; sensitivity analysis

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COVID-19 Epidemic Compartments Model and Bangladesh

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