Keyhole neurosurgery implies reaching a target area inside the brain through an entry point specified by the neurosurgeon. In order to avoid complications, a risk assessment procedure must be done to establish the minimum risk trajectory from the entry point to the target area. The neurosurgeon establishes the risk values for the brain structure according to the type of intervention. The preset brain structure risk value is used to assess the risk value for each voxel of the brain. This paper proposes an improved risk assessment methodology based on the sum of N maximum risk values for each voxel. Then, risk assessment for a trajectory is done by adding the risk of all voxels that are part of the path. The safest trajectory is defined as the trajectory with the lower risk. Our proposed search trajectory methodology includes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for finding the safest trajectories. The use of a GA drastically reduces the number of trajectories to analyze, speeding up the planning procedure. The achieved results were qualified by expert neurosurgeons as satisfactory. Our proposed method allows neurosurgeons to calibrate the surgical planning system by allowing them to establish the risk brain structure and the risk value for each structure.

Total Nigeria Plc is a Marketing and Services subsidiary of Total; a multinational energy company operating in more than 130 countries and committed to providing sustainable products and services for its customers. For over 50 years, Total Nigeria Plc has remained the leader in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This study investigated the volatility of the stock price of Total Petroleum Nigeria plc using nine (9) GARCH models namely sGARCH, gjrGARCH, eGARCH, iGARCH, aPARCH, TGARCH, NGARCH, NAGARCH and AVGARCH. We also investigated the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Backtesting of the Models. The aim actually of this study is to boost the confidence of the shareholders and investors of the Total Nigeria plc. To achieve this, daily stock price for Total petroleum Nigeria plc from secondary was collected from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017. . The study used both normal and student t innovations, using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model, for normal innovations for log returns and cleansed log returns of Total plc, the eGARCH and sGARCH models performed best respectively, while NGARCH model performed best for student t innovation for both log returns and cleansed returns of Total plc. The persistence of the models are stable except in few cases where iGARCH, eGARCH where not stable. Also for student t innovation, the sGARCH and gjrGARCH fails to converge. The mean-reverting number of day for the returns of Total Nigeria plc differs from model to model. Evidence from the VaR Analysis revealed from the selected models revealed that the Risk of VaR losses is high at 99% confidence level, slightly high at 95% confidence level and better at 90% confidence level. Although The Duration-Based Tests of independence conducted revealed that the models are correctly specified since in all cases the null hypotheses were accepted. This means that the probability of an exception on any day did not depends on the outcome of the previous day. Finally, both the unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances for both Total stock returns and cleansed returns. The tests revealed rejection of the models at 1% level of significance. This confirms that unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances are reliable compared to the Duration-Based Tests of independence. Therefore we recommend that shareholders and investors in Total Nigeria plc are to remain and continue to investment in Total Nigeria plc because if there is any form of losses, the price of the stock has the potentials to improve in the future. Again, though the risk is high at 99% confidence level, this in line with the financial theory that states that an asset with high expected risk would pay higher return on the average.

Introduction: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, there is an urgent need to analyse COVID-19 epidemic perception in Poland. This study aims to investigate social perception of coronavirus in the Internet media during the epidemic. It is a signal report highlighting the main issues in public perception and medical commutation in real time. Methods: We study the perception of COVID-19 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet on platforms: Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry, from January 2020 to 29.04.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.20). We present trend analysis with a support of natural language processing techniques. Results: We identified seven temporal major clusters of interest on the topic COVID-19: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Social distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield, 7) Restrictions releasing. There was an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government “declared war against disease” around 11/12.03.20 with a massive mitigation program. Later on, there was a decay in interest with additional phases related to social distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act with local peaks. We have found that declarations of mitigation strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So enacted or in force events do not affect interest to such extent. Traditional news agencies were ahead of social media (mainly Twitter) in dissemination of information. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial searching term 'antiviral mask' in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia “SARS-CoV-2” as well official incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual risk of acquiring infection. Conclusions: Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Risk perception in Poland is unrelated to actual physical risk of acquiring COVID-19. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.

This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work we create a model that modifies the BCBS's five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and applies these measures of systemic stress to governments. The original application of the model is to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.

Malaria is a disease spread by female mosquitos of the Anopheles genus. It is acutely prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 90% of malaria deaths occur annually. One Sub-Saharan African country historically impacted by malaria is Ethiopia. In the past twenty years, malaria prevalence has decreased throughout Sub-Saharan Africa; yet, anthropogenic environmental changes are changing the landscape of malaria. Scholarly literature has cited a positive relationship between hydroelectric dams and malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopia is currently expanding their hydroelectric infrastructure. The Gilgel Gibe III Dam is located on the Omo River in Southwestern Ethiopia. It began generating electricity in 2015 and its reservoir has a capacity of 14,700 million m3 of water. This research utilized Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing to identify populations at an increased risk of malaria due to Gilgel Gibe III Dam. Two different techniques were employed: the proximity approach and the remote sensing approach. The proximity approach was based on distance from the reservoir. It identified all populations living within three kilometers of the reservoir as being at an increased risk. The remote sensing approach evaluated the slope, elevation, water content, and land surface temperature of the study area to create a mosquito breeding habitat risk map. Then, populations living within three kilometers of the two main High-Risk areas were identified. This study suggests that mosquito breeding habitat risk is not equally distributed throughout the Gilgel Gibe III Reservoir. This causes certain populations to be at a heightened risk of malaria.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

Traditional flood hazard analyses often rely on univariate probability distributions; however, in many coastal catchments, flooding is the result of complex hydrodynamic interactions between multiple drivers. For example, synoptic meteorological conditions can produce considerable rainfall-runoff, while also generating wind-driven elevated sea levels. When these drivers interact in space and time, they can exacerbate flood impacts; this phenomenon is known as compound flooding. In this paper, we build a Bayesian Network based on Gaussian copulas to generate the equivalent of 500 years of daily stochastic boundary conditions for a coastal watershed in Southeast Texas. In doing so, we overcome many of the limitations of conventional univariate approaches and are able to probabilistically represent compound floods caused by riverine and coastal interactions. We calculate the resulting water levels using a 1D steady-state hydraulic model and find that flood stages in the catchment are strongly affected by backwater effects from tributary inflows and downstream water levels. By comparing with a bathtub modeling approach, we show that simplifying the multivariate dependence between flood drivers can lead to an underestimation of flood impacts, highlighting that accounting for multivariate dependence is critical for the accurate representation of flood risk in coastal catchments prone to compound events.

This study analyses the short-run hydro generation scheduling for the wind power differences from the contracted schedule. The approach for construction of the joint short-run marginal cost curve for the hydro-wind coordinated generation is proposed and applied on the real example. This joint short-run marginal cost (SRMC) curve is important for its participation in the energy markets and for economic feasibility assessment of such coordination. The approach credibly describes the short-run marginal costs which this coordination bears in “real life”. The approach is based on the duality framework of a convex programming and as a novelty combines the shadow price of risk mitigation capability and the water shadow price. The proposed approach is formulated as a stochastic linear program and tested on the case of the Vinodol hydropower system and the wind farm Vrataruša in Croatia. The result of the case study is a family of 24 joint short-run marginal cost curves.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a critical factor for enhancing the soil erosion risk and land degradation process in the Wabi Shebelle Basin. Up-to-date spatial and statistical data on basin-wide erosion rates can provide an important basis for planning and conservation of soil and water ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to examine the magnitude of LULCC and consequent changes in the spatial extent of soil erosion risk, and identify priority areas for Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) in the Erer Sub-Basin, Wabi Shebelle Basin, Ethiopia. The soil loss rates were estimated using an empirical prediction model of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) outlined in the ArcGIS environment. The estimated total annual actual soil loss at the sub-basin level was 1.01 million tons in 2000 and 1.52 million tons in 2018 with a mean erosion rate of 75.85 t ha^–1 y^–1 and 107.07 t ha^–1 y^–1, respectively. The most extensive soil loss rates were estimated in croplands and bare land cover, with a mean soil loss rate of 37.60 t ha^–1 y^–1 and 15.78 t ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, respectively. The soil erosion risk has increased by 18.28% of the total area, and decreased by 15.93%, showing that the overall soil erosion situation is worsening in the study area. We determined SWC priority areas using the Multi-Criteria Decision Rule (MCDR) approach, indicates that the top three levels identified for intense SWC account for about 2.50%, 2.38%, and 2.14%, respectively. These priority levels are typically situated along the steep slopes in Babile, Fedis, Fik, Gursum, Gola Oda, Haramaya, Jarso, and Kombolcha districts that need emergency SWC measures.

The complex systems that require safety are the Safety Critical Systems. Maintaining these systems is a big challenge. Now a days, safety is a very critical requirement for the latest systems. Safety critical systems must be safe. Different approaches to ensure quality and safety in safety critical systems has been discussed in this paper. A comparison is also conducted between these various approaches. Safety critical systems must remain more influential in future.

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies aim to predict the risks of complex diseases using proprietary algorithms. Companies keep algorithms as trade secrets for competitive advantage, but a market that thrives on the premise that customers can make their own decisions about genetic testing should respect customer autonomy and informed decision making and maximize opportunities for transparency. The algorithm itself is only one piece of the information that is deemed essential for understanding how prediction algorithms are developed and evaluated. Companies should be encouraged to disclose everything else, including the expected risk distribution of the algorithm when applied in the population, using a benchmark DNA dataset. A standardized presentation of information and risk distributions allows customers to compare test offers and scientists to verify whether the undisclosed algorithms could be valid. A new model of oversight in which stakeholders collaboratively keep a check on the commercial market is needed.

Coal combustion in thermal power plants releases ash. Ash is reported to cause different adverse health hazards in humans and other organisms. Owing to the presence of radionuclides, it is also considered as a potential radiation hazard. In this study, based on the surface radiation measurements and relevant ancillary data, expected radiation risk zones were identified with regard to the human population residing near the Thermal Power Plant. With population density as the risk determining criteria, about 20% of the study area was at ‘High’ risk and another 20% of the study area was at ‘Low’ risk zone. The remaining 60% was under medium risk zone. Based on the findings remedial measures which may be adopted have been suggested.

Contract between grower and integrator has been used extensively in broiler industry all over the world. One important advantages of contract is risk management, in which contract shifts a portion of grower risk to integrator. Thus, this paper attempted to measure the amount of risk shifted from grower to integrator and the consequences of this benefit to grower. Using a panel data of actual production records of 46 Indonesian broiler growers for the period of January 2014 through December 2017, we systematically measure the amount of risk shifted to integrator and its consequences to grower. The results showed that 78.43% grower risk is shifted to integrator. However, to acquire this benefit grower receive 15% less income. Furthermore, grower face the possibility of losing their asset and stopping their production as the consequences of entering contract.

In recent years, rainfall-induced waterlogging has become a common hazard in the highly urbanized coastal city of Chattogram, Bangladesh resulting in high magnitude of property damage and economic loss. Therefore, the primary objective of this research is to prepare a waterlogging inventory map and understand the spatial variation of the risk by means of hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability of waterlogging. In this research, the inventory map and factors influencing waterlogging hazard were determined from a participatory survey and other spatial data including land elevation, population, and structural data were collected from secondary sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process was applied to measure the hazard intensity and the exposure and vulnerability were estimated by overlaying the spatial data onto the hazard intensity map. A total of 58 locations in 22 wards have been identified as waterlogging affected, which covers ~8.42% of the city area. Obtained waterlogging vulnerability index map suggests that ward no. 5, 6, 16, 17, and 33 are greatly vulnerable to waterlogging in terms of their social, infrastructure, critical facilities, economic and environmental vulnerability. We show that ~2.71% of the study area is at very high risk, while the risk score is considerably higher for ward no. 5, 8, 17, 19, and 33.

Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality among adult patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK. Design Observational cohort study. Setting 287 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, of which 260 admitted at least one eligible patient. Participants 10,933 patients with confirmed COVID-19 of whom 10,401 were eligible (excluding 532 patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hours and 1 patient with unknown 28-day outcome): 8,666 development (March-April 2020) and 1,735 temporal validation (May-August 2020). Main outcome measures 28-day in-hospital mortality from start of critical care. Results Two models were developed using 14 patient level predictors selected from 30 candidate predictors, with and without adjustment for calendar time. In the temporal validation data, the model discrimination was maintained (c index 0.78) but calibration was poor, particularly for the model not adjusted for calendar time (ratio of observed to predicted mortality 0.74 versus 0.88 for the model adjusted for calendar time). Conclusions We developed and validated a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for patients critically ill with COVID-19. Although absolute predictions were inaccurate due to changing outcomes, the models will support risk-adjustment in analyses and monitoring changes in risk-adjusted outcome over time.

Background: The treatment plan of prosthetic restorations supported by dental implants require comprehensive scientific knowledge to deliver prostheses with good prognosis, even before the implant insertion. This review aims to analyze the main prosthetic determinants of the prognosis of implant-supported prostheses. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted with a PICO question: "For partially or complete edentulous subjects treated with implant-supported prostheses, which prosthetic factors could affect clinical outcomes?". A literature search was performed electronically in PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus and Cochrane Library with the following equation [PROGNOS* OR RISK] FACTOR IMPLANT DENTAL, and by hand search in relevant journals and throughout the selected papers. Results: This revision was carried out based on 50 papers focused on several prosthodontics-related risk factors that were grouped as follows: implant-connection, loading protocol, transmucosal abutments, prosthetic fit, provisionalization, type of retention, impression technique, fabrication technique, and occlusion. More than a half of the studies were systematic reviews (30%), meta-analysis (16%) or prospective evaluations of prosthesis with various kinds of events (18%). But also narrative reviews of literature (14%) and in vitro/animal studies (16%) were found. Conclusions: The current literature provides insufficient evidence for most of the investigated topics. However, based on the accumulated data, it seems reasonable to defend that the best treatment approach is the use of morse taper implants with transmucosal abutments, recorded by means of rigidly splinted copings through the pick-up technique, and screwed by milled prosthesis occlusally adjusted to minimize functional overloading.

Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 states in Nigeria. We analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 states, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 states: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) per million population also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP and to a lesser extent with TB and population density. On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP states had a greater CMR. This study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain states in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.

There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests to use terms that appear to be the more logic and explicit as possible, and describes methods to derive some of the main hazard and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized hazards and diffused hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the propagation probability and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (reach frequency) can be derived. However, when the element at risk is not replaced or repaired, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall must be considered.

To assess the presence of organochlorine pollutants (OCP) in Alaskan sub-Arctic latitudes, we analyzed ice core and meltwater samples from Jarvis Glacier, a polythermal glacier in Interior Alaska. Jarvis Glacier is receding as atmospheric warming continues throughout the region, increasing opportunity for OCP transport both englacially and into the proglacial watershed. Across all meltwater and ice core samples we identify the pesticides DDT, DDE and DDD, α- HCH and ϒ-HCH. OCP concentrations in ice core samples were highest at the 7-14 m depth (0.51 ng/L of DDT) and decreased gradually approaching the bedrock at 79m. Meltwater concentrations from the proglacial creek slightly exceeded concentrations found in the ice core, potentially indicating aggregate OCP glacial loss, with peak OCP concentration (1.12 ng/L of DDD) taken in July and potentially associated to peak melt. Ongoing use of DDT to fight Malaria in Asia, and the extended atmospheric range of HCH may account for concentrations in near-surface ice, correlating with use and atmospheric transport. The opportunity for biota bioaccumulation of OCPs, or human uptake of OCPs from glacial meltwater, may increase as glacial melt continues.

Based on a rich data set of recoveries donated by a debt collection business, recovery rates for non-performing loans taken from a single European country are modelled using linear regression, linear regression with Lasso, beta regression and inflated beta regression. We also propose a two-stage model: beta mixture model combined with a logistic regression model. The proposed model allows us to model the multimodal distribution we find for these recovery rates. All models are built using loan characteristics, default data and collections data prior to purchase by the debt collection business. The intended use of the models is to estimate future recovery rates for improved risk assessment, capital requirement calculations and bad debt management. They are compared using a range of quantitative performance measures under K-fold cross validation. Among all the models, we find that the proposed two-stage beta mixture model performs best.

Retrogressive breach failures or coastal flow slides occur naturally in the shoreface in fine sands near dynamic tidal channels or rivers. They sometimes retrogress into beaches, shoal margins and river banks where they can threaten infrastructure and cause severe coastal erosion and flood risk. Ever since the first reports were published in the Netherlands over a century ago, attempts have been made to understand the geo-mechanical mechanism of flow slides. In this paper we have established that events, observed during the active phase, are characterized by a slow and steady retrogression into the shoreline, often continuing for many hours. This can be explained by the breaching mechanism, as elaborated in this paper. Recently, further evidence has become available in the form of video footage of active events in Australia and elsewhere, often publicly posted on the internet. All these observations justify the new term ‘retrogressive breach failure’ (RBF event). The mechanism has been confirmed in small-scale flume tests and in a large-scale field experiment. With a better understanding of the geo-mechanical mechanism, current protection methods can be better understood and new defense strategies can be envisaged. In writing this paper, we hope that the coastal science and engineering communities will better recognize and understand these intriguing natural events.

The increase in arrivals of new forest pests highlights the need for effective phytosanitary legislation and measures. This paper introduces legislation targeted at prevention and management of potential introductions of forest pests and pathogens. A summary is given on plant health regulations on a global and regional level with detailed information on the situation in the European Union (EU). The current and new European legislation is discussed and a particular focus is given on eradication and contingency plans for Fusarium circinatum.

Bonfire night is a worldwide phenomenon given to numerous annual celebrations characterised by bonfires and fireworks. Since Thailand has no national ambient air quality standards for metal particulates, it is important to investigate the impacts of particulate injections on elevations of air pollutants and ecological health impacts resulting from firework displays. In this investigation, Pb and Ba were considered potential firework tracers because their concentrations were significantly higher during the episode and lower than/comparable with minimum detection limits during other periods, indicating that their elevated concentrations were principally due to pyrotechnic displays. Pb/Ca, Pb/Al, Pb/Mg, and Pb/Cu can be used to pin-point emissions from firework displays. Air mass backward trajectories (72 h) from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model indicated that areas east and north-east of the study site were the main sources for the air transportation. Although the combined risk associated with levels of Pb, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, V, and Mn was far below the standards mentioned in international guidelines, the lifetime cancer risks associated with As and Cr levels exceeded US-EPA guidelines, and may expose inhabitants of surrounding areas of Bangkok to elevated cancer risk.

Uncertainty is the main source of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R1) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common attribute decision models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.

Over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infections among dogs are more common than previously thought. In this study, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was investigated in two dog population. The first group was comprised of 1069 dogs admitted to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital for any given reason. The second group included dogs that shared households with confirmed COVID-19 cases in humans. This study group numbered 78 dogs. In COVID-19 infected households, 43.9% tested ELISA positive, and neutralisation antibodies were detected in 25.64% of dogs. Those data are comparable with the secondary attack rate in the human population. With 14.69% of dogs in the general population testing ELISA positive, there was a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections within the dog population amid the second wave of the pandemic. Noticeably seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the dog and the human population did not differ at the end of the study period. Male sex, breed and age were identified as significant risk factors. This study gives strong evidence that while acute dog infections are mostly asymptomatic, they can pose a significant risk to dog health. Seropositive dogs had a 1.97 times greater risk for developing central nervous symptoms.

This research aimed to figure out the applications of HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene as the prognostic biomarkers for assessing the risks of different cancers among male T2D patients in Bangladesh considering their serological and oncoinformatic parameters. Depending on the concentrations of HbA1c (%) of the T2D patients (n=300), their individual FBS (mmol/L); THABF (mmol/L); creatinine (mg/dl); SC (mg/dl); STGs (mg/dl); HDLC (mg/dl); and LDLC (mg/dl) were estimated. The values of the patients were compared with the control (n=60) group as the serological analysis. Besides, HbA1 gene (encoding hBA1c protein) overexpression and promotor methylation responsible for BLCA, BRCA, CHOL, COAD, LUAD, LUSC, PAAD, and PRAD cancers in the male T2D patients were profiled as the oncoinformatic parameters based on the sample types; caner stages; racial footprints; gender; age; nodal metastasis; p53 methylations; pancreatitis; diabetes status; smoking behaviors; and overall/disease-free survivability. Finally, the ‘HbA1 gene strings’ responsible for genetic coexpression; endophytic vesicle regulation; antioxidant regulation; oxygen species metabolic regulation; and gene-mediated response to the reactive oxygen molecules were studied comprehensively. A strong correlation between BMI and FBS was observed in both the patients and the control (P<0.0001). Similarly, the values of FBS, THABF, and creatinine resulted in equal significance (P<0.0001) as compared to the HbA1c concentrations of all the T2D and control individuals. The SC, STGs, HDLC, and LDLC concentrations regulated ardently in both the control (P<0.0001), and patients group (P<0.0001), while HbA1c ranged from 3.8-5.8%, and 5.11-15.8% respectively. HbA1 gene is found downregulating with cancer progressed in most of the oncoinformatic parameters. According to the DA, CS, EI, CE, PC, NC, GF, H, and AT profiles; the HbA1 gene interacts with 8 other genes responsible for creating a protein cluster comprising- AHSP, HBA1, HBA2, HBB, HBD, HBE1, HBG2, RPS12, and RPS19 proteins for cancer formation. To recapitulate, HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene can be used as the prognostic serological and molecular biomarkers respectively for determining the risks of cancers among male chronic T2D patients.

COVID-19 appeared as an infectious disease of global health emergency and the highest public health concern of 21st century for this world due to its high-speed of spread across the globe. The disease started as one single case to a cluster of cases in Wuhan, China (Dec 2019) and within few months with its continuous upsurge of cases spreading globally which has created enormous threat and tension across the global Public health care field. Most significantly to share the fact that, this disease caused high level of Risk Group mortality, high morbidity, health care services burden, panic anxiety, mental trauma and tension, social and economic insecurity, which also collectively surfaced by diverse range of social reaction and political pressure across the world. Also with the appearance of new and unknown pathogenesis of the disease has created the most and significant attention and concern for the scientific community and political leaders as well. The disease also varies much with its pattern of virus, sign, symptoms, characteristics including its epidemiological and public health response (like prevention strategy, diagnoses, case management, treatment pattern) across the countries. However, this variance is comparatively less rather even more in commonality while it comes to basic public health prevention interventions like frequent hand washing, wearing face mask, maintaining social/physical distancing (2 - 6 meter in between), individual isolation and community quarantine for suspected exposure and lockdown in community areas where cases are identified. These are with the most commonly practiced public health interventions to deal with this disease in majority of the epicenters across countries. Also with the progress of the disease with its diverse categorical appearance of sign symptoms which are uniquely portraying this disease is more of a kind of COVID-19 syndrome than as COVID-19. Moreover, various factors including socio economic status, health status, population dynamics, health system and infrastructure, health behavioral pattern, nutrition and food habit and access to information and knowledge made this viral disease one of the historically counted on expensive disease of the modern world to fight for. Specially to mention here, the case fatality rate distinctively vary with the population dynamics and the health system infrastructure and ability factors which have already created clear evidence as explained in this paper how these factors are uniquely distinguished and different from country to country. Apart from the contextual differences, the various kind of ongoing preventive measures (like prevention, diagnosis and treatment) learnt every day from the emerging characteristics and pattern of this viral disease which are most commonly practiced across countries with a variance. According to the Public health prevention practice and interventions, the total world is connected and learning from each other’s public health experiences to fight for the virus. However, the world communities are eagerly waiting to see the result and outcome of the ongoing therapeutics and vaccine trial initiated in several countries, the people of the world are quite optimistic and hopeful that, global scientific community will be able to invent some miraculous and magic solution in upcoming months which ultimately will free the world from this most terrifying COVID-19 pandemic of 21st century.

We introduce and analyse a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of climate change. In it, each generation can choose between just two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as this one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyse this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Despite the simplicity of the setup, we find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches.

Because of the widespread use of bisphenol analogues (BPs) as the alternatives to bisphenol A (BPA), they have attracted considerable attention for health risk in aquatic ecosystems. The occurrence and distribution of six BPs were researched in soluble phase (< 5 kDa), colloidal phase (5 kDa to 1 µm) and suspended particulate matter (SPM > 1 µm) in a water diversion project of Nanjing, China. Except for bisphenol Z, all BPs were detected in the two or three phases, the total concentrations of detected BPs were 161-613 ng/L, 5.19-77.2 ng/L and 47.5-353 ng/g for the soluble phase, colloidal phase and SPM, respectively. Among the detected compounds, BPA still the dominant BPs in the soluble and colloidal phases, followed by BPS, while BPAF was the major contaminant in SPM, followed by BPA. The mean contribution proportions of colloids were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than SPM, suggesting that colloids have an obvious impact on regulating BPs’ environmental behaviors. In terms of spatial distribution, although the water diversion project could reduce the pollution levels of BPs, which might further affect the ecological security of the Yangtze River.

Hyperkalemia burden in non-dialysis CKD under nephrology care is undefined. We prospectively followed 2443 patients with two visits (referral and control with 12-month interval) in 46 nephrology clinics. Patients were stratified in four categories of hyperkalemia (sK≥5.0 mEq/L) by sK at visit 1 and 2: Absent (no-no), Resolving (yes-no), New Onset (no-yes), Persistent (yes-yes). We assessed competing risks of ESKD and death after visit 2. Age was 65±15 y, eGFR 35±17 mL/min/1.73 m2, proteinuria 0.40 (0.14-1.21) g/24h. In the two visits sK was 4.8±0.6 and levels ≥6 mEq/L were observed in  4%. Hyperkalemia was absent in 46%, resolving 17%, new onset 15% and persistent 22%. Renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors (RASI) were prescribed in 79% patients. During 3.6-year follow-up, 567 patients reached ESKD and 349 died. Multivariable competing risk analysis [sub-hazard ratio-sHR, 95%Confidence Interval-CI] evidenced that new onset [sHR 1.34, 95%CI 1.05-1.72] and persistent [sHR 1.27, 95%CI 1.02-1.58] hyperkalemia predicted higher ESKD risk versus absent, independently from main determinants of outcome including eGFR change. Conversely, no effect on mortality was observed. Results were confirmed by testing sK as continuous variable. Therefore, in CKD under nephrology care, mild-to-moderate hyperkalemia status is common (37%) and predicts per se higher ESKD risk but not mortality.

Urban flood risk mapping is an important tool for the mitigation of flooding in view of human activities and climate change. Many developing countries, however, lack sufficiently detailed data to produce reliable risk maps with existing methods. Thus, improved methods are needed that can improve urban flood risk management in regions with scarce hydrological data. Given this, we estimated the flood risk map for Rasht City (Iran), applying a composition of decision-making and machine learning methods. Flood hazard maps were produced applying six state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM). Flood conditioning parameters applied in modeling were elevation, slope angle, aspect, rainfall, distance to river (DTR), distance to streets (DTS), soil hydrological group (SHG), curve number (CN), distance to urban drainage (DTUD), urban drainage density (UDD), and land use. In total, 93 flood location points were collected from the regional water company of Gilan province combined with field surveys. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making tool for creating an urban flood vulnerability map, which is according to population density (PD), dwelling quality (DQ), household income (HI), distance to cultural heritage (DTCH), distance to medical centers and hospitals (DTMCH), and land use. Then, the urban flood risk map was derived according to flood vulnerability and flood hazard maps. Evaluation of models was performed using receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and precision. The findings showed that the CART method is most accurate method (AUC = 0.947, accuracy = 0.892, POD = 0.867, FAR = 0.071, and precision = 0.929). The results also demonstrated that DTR, UDD, and DTUD played important roles in flood hazard modeling; whereas, the population density was the most significant parameter in vulnerability mapping. These findings indicated that machine learning methods can improve urban flood risk management significantly in regions with limited hydrological data.

Risk attitudes are relevant factors affecting the production and investment decisions at farm level. They are key factors that are related to farmers’ attitudes towards environment and climate change. Several methodological approaches are available to measure the level of stated risk of an economic agent. The Multiple Price List (MPL) method is one of the methods that is gaining relevance. In this study we apply the MPL and relate the risk outcomes with farmers’ characteristics and their perception towards environment and climate change. Data was collected using a face to face survey carried out for a group of 370 agricultural producers of the irrigation district located in northwest of Mexico. Results showed an average risk of about 0.32, locating the agricultural producers of the region in a group with risk aversion, according to the MPL scale. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the socioeconomic factors and the perceptions towards climate change are related to the farmers´ stated risk level. Farmers who are young women with propensity to use public support to invest were shown to be greater risk lovers. Farmers in the region have perceived climate change to a greater extent like floods, hail, diseases and pests, and changing vegetation.

Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.

Diet influences, and is influenced by, a wide range of socioeconomic, cultural, geographic, and genetic variables. Here we survey a matrix of such interactions as well as their connection to a variety of health outcomes, in a cohort of 689 diverse adults employed at Emory University and enrolled in the Center for Health Discovery and Well-Being (CHDWB) study. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the Block Food Frequency Questionnaire revealed seven PC cumulatively explaining 25.8% and each individually at least 2% of the proportional consumption of 110 food items. PC1 is strongly correlated with the Healthy Eating Index-2015 measure, and accordingly healthier scores associate with multiple measures of physical and mental health. It, as well as PC2 (likely a measure of food expense) and PC3 (carbohydrate versus protein consumption) show significant geographic structure across the Atlanta metropolitan area, correlating with race and ethnicity, income level, age and sex. Notably, a polygenic score for body mass index (BMI) consisting of 281 SNPs explains 2.8% of the variance in PC5, which is as strong as its association with BMI itself. PC5 appears to differentiate participants with respect to conscious eating behavior related to the choice of diet or comfort foods. Our analysis adds to the growing literature on factor analysis of socio-demographic influences on nutrition and health.

Screen viewing time is the total time spent by a child on any digital/electronic device. The objective of the present study was to determine the incidence and predictors of excessive screen viewing time in children in Ujjain, India. This cross-sectional, community-based study was conducted through house-to-house survey by using the three-stage cluster sampling method in 36 urban wards and 36 villages of Ujjain district, India. Excessive screen viewing time was defined as screen viewing for &gt; 2 h/day. The prevalence of excessive screen viewing time was 17.83%. Risk factors identified using the multivariate logistic regression model were: age (OR: 1.5, P &lt; 0.001); mobile phone use before bedtime (OR: 3.17, P = 0.008); parents’ perception about the child habituated to screen (OR: 14.03, P &lt; 0.001); television in bedroom (OR: 48.69, P &lt; 0.001); morning mobile screen viewing time (OR: 9.27, P &lt; 0.001); not reading books other than textbooks (OR: 9.71, P &lt; 0.001); and lack of outdoor play for &gt;2 h (OR: 4.20, P &lt; 0.001). Presence of eye pain was a protective factor for excessive screen viewing time (OR: 0.12, P = 0.011). The study identified multiple modifiable risk factors for excessive screen viewing time.

Background:Peripheral neuropathy (PN) can result in either partial or complete loss of distal sensation resulting in an increased fall risk. Walkasins^® uses a shoe insert to detect the magnitude and direction of sway and sends signals to a leg unit that provides sensory balance cues. The objective of this case report is to describe the long-term influence of the Walkasins^® lower limb sensory neuroprosthesis on balance and gait for an individual with diabetic PN.Case Description:A fifty-one-year-old male with a 3-year history of PN and a 10-year history of type II diabetes mellitus was fitted with Walkasins^® and utilized the shoe inserts 8-10 hours/day for more than 1 year. Although, vibration and tactile thresholds were severely impaired at his 1^st metatarsophalangeal joint and the lateral malleolus bilaterally he could perceive tactile stimuli from the Walkasins^® above the ankles.Outcomes:Following Walkasins^® use, his Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) scores improved from 33% to 80%. His mean Vestibular Activities of Daily Living (VADL) scores decreased from 3.54 to 1. His Functional Gait Assessment (FGA) scores increased from 13/30 to 28/30 and his miniBESTest scores improved from 15/28 to 26/28. Gait speed increased from 0.23 m/sec to 1.5 m/sec. The patient described a decrease in pain and cramping throughout his lower extremities and an increase in function.Discussion:Gait and balance improved with the use of the Walkasins^® and participation in the Neuro Wellness Program. This improvement suggests that the use of sensory substitution devices, such as the Walkasins^®, may replace sensory deficits related to gait and balance dysfunction experienced by patients with PN. Further research is needed to determine if other patients will have a similar response and what the necessary threshold of sensory function is to benefit from use of the Walkasins^®.

The number of individuals meeting criteria for genetic counseling and testing for hereditary cancer syndromes (HCS) is far less than the number that actually receive it. To facilitate identification of patients at risk for HCS, Counsyl developed a digital identification tool (digital ID tool) to match personal and family cancer history to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) BRCA-related Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC), Lynch syndrome, and polyposis testing criteria in one-to-one, automated fashion. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of the digital ID tool to accurately identify histories that do and do not meet NCCN testing criteria. Methods: Third-party recorded three-generation pedigrees were retrospectively reviewed by a certified genetic counselor (CGC) to determine if independent events included in pedigree histories met NCCN guidelines, and were then sorted into groups: high risk events (meets criteria) and low risk events (does not meet criteria). Events were entered into the digital ID tool to determine the extent of its concordance with events sorted by CGC review. Statistical tests of accuracy were calculated at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: 197 pedigrees were reviewed consecutively representing 765 independent events for analysis across groups. 382/382 (100%) high risk events identified by the digital ID tool and 381/383 (99.47%) low risk events identified by the digital ID tool were concordant with CGC sorting. The digital ID tool had a sensitivity of 100% (99.04-100% CI) and specificity of 99.48% (98.13-99.94% CI). The overall accuracy of the digital ID tool was estimated to be 99.74% (99.06-99.97% CI), reflecting the rate at which the digital ID tool reached the same conclusion as that of CGC review of pedigree events for the recommendation of genetic testing for individuals at risk for HCS. Conclusions: The digital ID tool accurately matches NCCN criteria in one-to-one fashion to identify at-risk individuals for HCS and may be useful in clinical practice, specifically for BRCA-related HBOC and Lynch Syndrome.

Abstract Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing played an important role in analyzing environmental and socio-economic drivers that created favorable condition for malaria breeding as well as in identifying hazard and risk areas. This study gives great emphasis on mapping malaria hazard and risk areas in Gedio zone of SNNPs using geospatial technology. The study identifies two major drivers like Environmental (physical) factors: which provide for the endurance of mosquitoes and Socio-economic factors. The above data were presented and analyzed quantitatively. The content analysis shows that Malaria hazard prevalence areas were mapped based on the environmental factors which are potential of providing good environmental conditions for mosquito breeding. The hazard map was produced using elevation, slope, proximity to breeding sites, and soil type as the factors for breeding mosquitoes. The malaria hazard analysis of the Gedio zone revealed that from the total area, 9.83%, 35.29% is mapped as a very high and high-risk area, whereas, the remaining 38.73%, a 16.14%, and 0.01% were mapped as moderate, low, very low level of malaria hazard respectively. The total area of the study area more than 1/3rd of the area is identified as a very high and high malaria risk area while the rest 2/3rd of an area is considered as a moderate to very low hazard risk zone. Accordingly, very high malaria risk area is found around towns because of population density. Finally, I recommend that the concerned body should have to expand health center, creating awareness of society, especially around populated areas where the risk is high and environmental and individual sanitation can reduce the risk of malaria.

Functional mobility assessments (i.e., Timed Up and Go) are commonly used clinical tools for mobility and fall risk screening in the aging population. In this work, we proposed a new Mixed Reality (MR)-based assessment that utilized a Microsoft HoloLens^TM headset to automatically lead and track the performance of functional mobility tests, and subsequently evaluated its validity in comparison with reference inertial sensors. Twenty-two healthy adults (10 older, 12 young) participated in this study. An automated functional mobility assessment app was developed based on the HoloLens platform. Mobility performance was recorded with the headset built-in sensor and validated with reference inertial sensor (Opal, APDM) taped on the headset and lower back. Results indicate vertical kinematic measures by HoloLens was in good agreement with the reference sensor (Normalized RMSE ~ 10%). Additionally, the HoloLens-based test completion time was in perfect agreement with clinical standard stopwatch measure. Overall, our preliminary investigation indicates that it is possible to use an MR headset to automatically guide users to complete common mobility tests with good measurement accuracy, thus it has great potential to provide objective and efficient sensor-based mobility assessment.

Purpose: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the health care workers (HCWs) at the frontline have been largely exposed to infected patients, running an high risk of being infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study investigates the epidemiological, clinical and lifestyles characteristics that might play roles in the susceptibility of HCWs to COVID-19 in a hit Italian hospital. Methods:Demographic, lifestyle, work-related and comorbidities data of 1447 HCWs which underwent a nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 were retrospectively collected. For the 164 HCWs positive for SARS-CoV-2, data about safety in the workplace, symptoms and clinical course of COVID-19 were also collected. Cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated. Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection were assessed using a multivariable Poisson regression. Results: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among the screened HCWs was 11.33 (9.72-13.21). Working in a COVID-19 ward, being a former smoker (vs being a person who never smoked) and BMI were positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, whereas being a current smoker was negatively associated with this variable. Conclusions: Assuming an equal accessibility and proper use of PPE of all the HCWs of our Hospital, the great and more prolonged contact with COVID-19 patients remains the crucial risk factor for SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, increased and particular care needs to be focused specifically on the most exposed HCWs groups, which should be safeguarded. Furthermore, in order to limit the risk of asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the HCWs mild symptoms of COVID-19 should be considered when evaluating the potential benefits of universal staff testing

The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.

This review aimed to update the main aspects of aflatoxin production, occurrence and incidence in selected countries, and associated aflatoxicosis outbreaks. Means to reduce aflatoxin incidence in crops were also presented with an emphasis on the environment-friendly technology using atoxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus. Aflatoxins are unavoidable widespread natural contaminants of foods and feeds with serious impact on health, agricultural and livestock productivity, and food safety. They are secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus species distributed on three main sections of the genus (section Flavi, section Ochraceorosei, and section Nidulantes). Poor economic status of a country exacerbates the risk and the extent of crop contamination due to faulty storage conditions that are usually suitable for mold growth and mycotoxin production: temperature of 22 to 29°C and water activity of 0.90 to 0.99. This situation paralleled the prevalence of high liver cancer and the occasional acute aflatoxicosis episodes that have been associated with these regions. Risk assessment studies revealed that Southeast Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries remain at high risk and that, apart from the regulatory standards revision to be more restrictive, other actions to prevent or decontaminate crops are to be taken for adequate public health protection. Indeed, a review of publications on the incidence of aflatoxins in selected foods and feeds from countries whose crops are classically known for their highest contamination with aflatoxins, reveals that despite the intensive efforts made to reduce such an incidence, there has been no clear tendency, with the possible exception of South Africa, towards sustained improvements. Nonetheless, a global risk assessment of the new situation regarding crop contamination with aflatoxins by international organizations with the required expertise is suggested to appraise where we stand presently.

Among the array of structurally and toxicologically diverse mycotoxins, aflatoxins have attracted the most interest of scientific research due to their high toxicity and incidence in foods and feeds. Despite the undeniable progress made in various aspects related to aflatoxins, the ultimate goal consisting of reducing the associated public health risks worldwide is far from being reached due to multiplicity of social, political, economic, geographic, climatic, and development factors. However, a reasonable degree of health protection is attained in industrialized countries owing to their scientific, administrative, and financial capacities allowing them to use high-tech agricultural management systems. Less fortunate situation exists in equatorial and sub-equatorial developing countries mainly practicing traditional agriculture managed by smallholders for subsistence, and where the climate is suitable for mould growth and aflatoxin production. A situation that worsens by the climatic change being increasingly suitable for aflatoxigenic mold growth and toxin production. Accordingly, it is difficult to harmonize the regulatory standards of aflatoxins worldwide, which prevents agri-foods of developing countries from access to the market of industrialized countries. To tackle the multi-facetted aflatoxin problems, actions should be taken collectively by the international community involving scientific research, technological and social development, environment protection, awareness promotion, etc. International cooperation should foster technology transfer and exchange of pertinent technical information. This review presents the main historical discoveries leading to our present knowledge on aflatoxins and the challenges that should be addressed presently and in the future at various levels to ensure higher health protection for everybody. In short, it aims to elucidate where we come from and where we should go in terms of aflatoxin research/development.

The aim of the article is to present a snapshot in time, of the current state in cryptocurrencies, the values and risks associated to blockchains. With emergence of over 20,000 crypto projects, the first objective of this article is to present the stage as it is in 2023, with historical overview since Satoshi presented the first paper on decentralised blockchains, until today. Second objective of the article is to review the values and risks associated to cryptocurrencies, and to clarify the differences between cryptocurrencies from blockchain technologies. The research questions that drive this article are related determining if the blockchain technology an innovation or its already obsolete technology? Are there any significant risks from cryptocurrencies? And are the potential values to society and economy worth pursuing? Would developed or developing countries benefit more from these technologies? And which blockchain projects will survive in the long run? In other words, where is the money and is there money or just hype. The review discusses the high probability that some crypto projects will fail, and given the vast number of cryptos, the article acknowledges that many of these projects are nothing more than ponzies. These are discussed and acknowledged, then the focus is shifted to the real-world use cases of blockchain projects.

Among others, road traffic, industrial emissions, commercial activities, smoking and cooking are considered as major contributing factors for the increasing levels of pollutants in atmosphere. High levels of potentially toxic metals and microbes in atmosphere, especially in indoor air, may pose serious threat to human health. Therefore, concentration and associated health risks of potentially toxic trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) and their risk to human health, and microbial load in indoor air was assessed using air condition (AC) filter dust samples collected from 5 locations representing residential, agricultural and industrial settings of Eastern Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The levels of trace metals varied considerably among sampling areas, with the highest levels of Cr and Cd recorded in the Industrial-area sites followed by the Agricultural and Urban-Residential sites. The highest levels of Pb and Fe were found in the Agricultural area sites followed by the Industrial and Urban-Residential area sites. The metals in dust sample, especially Cd, Cr and Pb, showed a considerable health risk through dermal pathway. Among the sites, the highest hazard quotient for these metals was found for Al-Qatif-Industrial areas sites and among the metals it was the highest for Cd. The cancer risk from the metals contained in AC filter dust was negligible. Samples collected from Agricultural and Industrial area sites were substantially contaminated with bacteria and fungi, respectively. Bacterial contaminants were mostly Gram Negative, with considerable antibiotic resistance and haemolytic activity. Thus, indoor air quality as assessed by AC filter dust depicted that a considerable health risk could be posed by the trace heavy metals and microorganisms for a long-term exposure. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that AC filters dust could be a unique and reliable test sample for the assessment of indoor environment.

Cold brew coffee is a new trend in coffee industry. This paper presents pilot studies into several aspect of this beverage. Using an online survey, the current practices of cold brew coffee preparation were investigated identifying a rather large variability with a preference for extraction of medium roasted Arabica coffee using 50-100 g/l at 8°C for about 1 day. Sensory testing using ranking and triangle tests showed that cold brew may be preferred over iced coffee (cooled down hot extracted coffee). Extraction experiments at different conditions combined with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis showed that the usual extraction time may be longer than necessary as most compounds are extracted within only a few hours, while increasing turbulence (e.g. using ultrasonication) and temperature may additional increase the speed of extraction. NMR analysis also revealed a possible chemical differentiation between cold brew and hot brew using multivariate data analysis. Decreased extraction time and reduced storage times could be beneficial for cold brew product quality as microbiological analysis of commercial samples detected samples with spoilage organisms and contamination with Bacillus cereus.

A new model for risk assessment of urban rainstorm disasters, based on information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-VFS) was proposed. In addition, an integrated index system of urban rainstorm risk was established. In the proposed model, IDM was employed to calculate the classification standards of urban rainstorm risk levels, then the VFS was adopted to assess the dangerousness, sensitivity, vulnerability and comprehensive risk of urban rainstorm disasters. In the present study, the urban rainstorm risk of Jiangsu province was evaluated with the proposed model. The results show that Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou have higher dangerousness, due to sustained rainfall and strong rainfall intensity in short duration; Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing have higher sensitivity because of lower disaster resistance ability; and Wuxi and Suzhou have higher vulnerability because these cities have higher potential losses in face of urban rainstorm disasters. The comprehensive risk zoning map of urban rainstorm shows apparent regional characteristics: the northwestern cities have lower risk than the southern cities. Moreover, most cities of the Jiangsu province are of the moderate urban rainstorm risk level. The results are consistent with the actual situation of Jiangsu province, and the study can provide some decision-making references for the urban rainstorm management.

In this paper we analyze the relationship between bankruptcy risk and the corporate life cycle in Pakistan from 2005 to 2014. For this purpose, we run a Hierarchical Linear Mixed Model (HLM) for a sample of 301 non-financial listed firms in 12 different sectors. The empirical outcomes reveal that firms during introduction, growth and, decline stages (mature stage) of life-cycle experience higher (lower) bankruptcy risk. Moreover, in juxtaposition with growth stage, bankruptcy risk is higher at the introduction stage of life-cycle. These findings suggest that financial managers should be cautious about the financial fragility of the firm at each stage of corporate life-cycle. The results also entail that Pakistani firms do not follow a sequential pattern in their life-cycle rather they have the tendency to revert to a previous stage or jump to the next stage of life-cycle. This is the first study that empirically examines the association between firm life-cycle stage and corresponding bankruptcy risk and asserts that managers must incorporate the life-cycle effects into their financial planning and decision making for sustainable working of an enterprise.

Cryptocurrencies are now the most popular investment instruments among millenials. Crypto offers great returns in a short period of time. Prior to COVID-19, Crypto experienced significant price fluctuations accompanied by an increase in the number of high transaction volumes. This situation was disrupted by the presence of the COVID-19 which made the world economy devastated, marked by the decline of stock prices in the world, especially in Indonesia. A paired test was conducted in this study to compare the state of Crypto before and during COVID-19 with the variables of Risk, Transaction Volume, Return, and Sharpe Performance. The results showed that there was a significant difference in the variables of Transaction Volume and Return. However, there was no significant difference in the Risk and Sharpe performance before and during COVID-19. This study shows that despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the enthusiasm of investors who transact crypto assets is not affected and they still get returns in accordance with the investments made. The high risk will be followed by a high standard deviation, so that the Sharpe Performance is small. Cryptocurrencies still have many gaps to research, such as regulation, so that many countries have not legalized Crypto transactions. If there is no regulation for Crypto, it is certain that an increase in cybercrime harms crypto investors and threatens global financial stability. Nevertheles, with or without COVID-19, investment transactions gain and lose based on confidence in the limited market. Therefore, the success of confidence fluctuations in crypto encourages the emergence of alternative coins created by investors to conduct an Initial Coin Offering (ICO).

Objectives: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by SARS-COV2 and transmitted from person-to-person through viral droplets remains a global pandemic. There is a need to understand the transmission modes, populations at risk, and how to mitigate the spread and case fatality in the United States (US) and globally. The current study aimed to assess the global COVID-19 transmission and case fatality, examine similar parameters by countries and determine evidence-based practice in extreme epidemiology response in epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction. Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic design was used to assess the preexisting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality in March 2020 from the CDC, WHO, Worldodomter, and STATISTA. A rapid assessment between March 23^rd and 31^st, 2020, was utilized for the extreme epidemiology response. The case fatality, termed fatality proportion, was examined using mortality in relation to confirmed cases involving the world, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, Spain, China, Germany, India and South Korea. Results: The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with the US as the epicenter for transmission, representing 20.9% of all confirmed cases worldwide, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality, 30.6% of mortality as at 03/31/ 2020. The fatality proportion (FP) in Italy was 11.4%, Spain (8.8%), France (6.8%) and UK (6.4%). Despite the increased number of confirmed cases, the lowest FP was observed in Germany (0.96%) and South Korea (1.66%). There is increasing linear tends in transmission in the US, R²=0.97 as well as positive daily percentage change, ranging from 1.27% to 20.5%. Conclusions: The USA remains the epicenter for COVID-19 transmission, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality. The observed relatively low case fatality in Germany and South Korea is due to an “extreme epidemiology” response through the application of Wuhan, China’s early data on COVID-19 transmission control measures and optimized patient care. These data are suggestive of relaxing the clinical guidelines in the United States in COVID-19 testing, application of contact tracing and testing, case isolation and most importantly enhancing resources for case management and social and physical distancing globally, hence epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction.

Fogo (Fogo island, Cape Verde Republic) is the youngest and most active volcano of the archipelago. The last eruption occurred in 2014–2015. Aiming at studying dust emissions and transport during the eruption period and assessing their impact on air quality and human health, a mineralogical and chemical characterization was undertaken in outdoor dust from all over the island, as well as in the lava resulting from this event. Air quality monitors were used to obtain concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) and gaseous pollutants. The mineralogical constitution of the samples was analysed by X-ray diffraction and Electron Microprobe, while the chemical characterization was performed through X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometry and ICP-MS. The volcanic rock was found to be tephritic to basanitic, with high potassium content. Several minerals were identified, such as titanian augite with ilmenite, basaltic hornblendes, pyrrhotites, apatites, pyroxenes, basaltic hornblendes and hematites. Concentrations of the particulate matter inhalable fraction (PM10) exceeded the 24-hour mean of 50 µg/m3 recommended by the World Health Organization. Nevertheless, total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs) showed levels lower than the worrying range. The highest levels of CO2 were recorded in more populated villages and farthest from the volcano. The Pollution Load Index (PLI) for outdoor dust collected on rooftops was always above 1, suggesting enrichment, with higher values in the dust size fraction < 63 µm. In the same way, the Contamination Factor pointed to high enrichment of As, Ni and Pb, and very high enrichment of Cd in the same size fraction. The Non-carcinogenic Hazard Quotient and Hazard Index estimated for Children suggest that health problems may arise. The Carcinogenic Risk, for all size fractions, was above the target risk. The element that most contributed to the global risk was As, followed by Pb and Co. Ingestion was the main exposure route for all size fractions. The dust size fraction that represented the highest risk was < 63 µm, mostly due to the As concentration.

We reviewed the association between seasonal influenza vaccination and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or complicated illness or poor outcome (e.g. severe disease, need for hospitalization or ventilatory support, or death) among COVID-19 patients. None of the studies that were reviewed (n=12) found a significant increase in the risk of infection or in the illness severity or lethality, while some reported significantly inverse associations. Our findings support measures aimed at raising influenza vaccination coverage in the coming months.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust pose a serious problem threatening both environment and human health. Street dust were collected from five different land use patterns (traffic areas TRA, urban area URA, residential areas REA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SUA) in a Saudi coastal city, Jeddah, and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. This study aimed to investigate the status, profile, sources of PAHs and estimate their human health risk. The results revealed an average concentration of total PAHs of 3320 ng/g in street dust of Jeddah and 223 ng/g in RUA dust. PAHs with high molecular weight represented 83.38% of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah, while the carcinogenic PAH compounds accounted 57.84%. The highest average concentration of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah was found in TRA (4980 ng/g) and the lowest in REA (1660 ng/g). PAHs ratios indicated that the principal source of PAHs in street dust of Jeddah is pyrogenic, mainly traffic emission. Benzo(a)anthracene/ chrysene (BaA/CHR) ratio suggests that PAHs in street dusts of Jeddah come mainly from emission of local sources, while PAHs in RUA might be transported from the surrounding urban areas. The estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with exposure to PAHs in street dusts indicated that both dermal contact and ingestion pathways are major contributed to cancer risk for both children and adults. Based on BaP_equivalence concentrations of total PAHs, ILCR_Ingestion, ILCR_dermal and cancer risk values for children and adults exposed to PAHs in street dust of different areas in Jeddah were found between 10⁻⁶ and 10⁻⁴, indicating potential risk. The sequence of cancer risk was TRA > URA > MCRA > SUA > REA. Only exposure to BaP and DBA compounds had potential risk for both children and adults.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

Risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are not well-defined in resident physicians and fellows (trainees). We aimed to identify sociodemographic, occupational and community factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among trainees during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in New York City (NYC). In this retrospective cohort study, we administered an electronic survey between June 26 and August 31, 2020 to trainees at the Mount Sinai Health System in NYC to assess risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection between February 1 and June 30, 2020. We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect regression and structural equation models to examine associations. SAR-CoV-2 infection was determined by self-reported IgG antibody and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction results and confirmed with laboratory results. Among 2354 trainees invited to participate, 328 (14%) completed the survey and reported test results. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 20.1%. Assignment to medical-surgical units (odds ratio [OR], 2.51; 95% CI, 1.18-5.34), and training in emergency medicine, critical care and anesthesiology (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.24-6.92) were independently associated with infection. Deployment to care for unfamiliar patient populations was protective against infection (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.73). Community factors were not significantly associated with infection after adjustment for occupational factors. Our findings may inform tailored infection prevention strategies for trainees responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of the artificial sweetener aspartame (E951) in a wide range of foods and beverages sampled by food control authorities in Germany between 2000 and 2022. The dataset was obtained through the Consumer Information Act. The results showed that aspartame was present in a wide range of product groups tested, most commonly in powdered drink bases (84%) and flavored milk drinks (78%). In the solid food groups, the highest mean aspartame content was found in chewing gum (1543 mg/kg, n=241), followed by sports foods (1453 mg/kg, n=125), fiber supplements (1248 mg/kg, n=11), powdered drink bases (1068 mg/kg, n=162), and candies (437 mg/kg, n=339). Liquid products generally had the highest aspartame content in diet soft drinks (91 mg/l, n=2021), followed by regular soft drinks (59 mg/l, n= 574), flavored milk drinks (48 mg/kg, n=207), and mixed beer drinks (24 mg/l, n=40). These results suggest that aspartame is widely used in foods and beverages in Germany and that certain product groups contain higher concentrations of the sweetener than others. However, the levels of aspartame found were generally within the legal limits set by the European Union. These findings provide the first comprehensive overview of aspartame in the German food market and may be particularly useful in informing the forthcoming working groups of the WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the WHO/FAO Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), which are in the process of evaluating the human health hazards and risks associated with the consumption of aspartame.

Three decades ago, human arsenic (As) contamination has been recognized in Ron Phibun, a sub-district with tin mining activity in southern Thailand. Since then different government bodies have attempted to mitigate the As-contamination problem by providing safe water in households. The most recent study conducted during 2000-2002 reported only a small fraction of population still had high urinary As level. Less attention has been paid to this issue afterwards. The present study aimed to re-assess the current situation, including human As contamination, water use behavior as well as identify risk factors of elevated As concentration among residents of Ron Phibun. The survey of 560 participants living in Ron Phibun with urinary As assessment was conducted. The median urinary As concentration of study participants was higher than normal. Consumption of shallow well water, a source generally considered as As-contaminated, was higher than a previous survey. A significant association was observed between urinary As concentrations and water sources for drinking and cooking. Gender and educational level were found to be associated with urinary As concentration. Significant associations between urinary As concentration and certain diseases (respiratory diseases, dermatitis, and dyslipidemia) were observed. The findings suggested further investigation of all water sources in the area for As contamination.

Research subjects of this study are four representative locations in the industrial complex, in the city of Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina. 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (∑16PAHs), humus and pH were determined. The main objective of the paper is to determine the concentration levels, to assess the probable sources of PAHs contamination in soil and groundwater and to determine the ecological risk. The ∑16PAHs in soil (at depths of 30 cm, 100 cm, 200 cm, 300 cm and 400 cm) ranged from 0.99 to 2.24 mg/kg, from 0.34 to 0.46, from 0.24 to 0.32, from 0.13 to 0.27 and from 0.13 to 0.47, with mean values of 1.70 mg/kg, 0.40 mg/kg, 0.28 mg/kg, 0.20 mg/kg and 0.26 mg/kg, respectively. The ∑16PAHs in groundwater ranged from 0.23 to 4.50 mg/m³, with a mean value of 1.42 mg/m³. Surface soil and groundwater are heavily contaminated. All values of ∑PAHs in soil layers were lower in the depths of the soil. Factor analysis indicates three sources of contamination, i.e. principal component (PC) PC1 (pyrogenic), PC2 (petrogenic) and PC3 (biomass), with 52.39%, 26.14% and 8.46% of the total variance, respectively. ∑PAH and PAHs indicate high ecological risk for most PAHs, which decreases with soil depth.

Identifying and assessing risk is one of the most important processes in managing complex systems and requires careful consideration. The need for an effective, efficient approach to risk management is considerably more important for defense projects based on systems of systems (SoS), because they are exposed to risk already in early stages of development. This paper uses advanced data science tools to present the complexity of the risk factors relevant to defense systems, and proposes a methodology for identifying, analyzing and monitoring the risks that they face. Findings from an in-depth analysis of 46 classified defense projects based on SoS shows a need to focus on three main risks faced by defense projects: uncertainty, the lack of clearly defined goals, and managing a system under constrained conditions. The paper also presents some recommendations for minimizing risk factors in SoS for defense projects.

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

Eating Disorders (ED) constitute a serious public health issue affecting predominantly women and appearing typically in adolescence or early adulthood. EDs are extremely difficult to treat as these disorders are ego-syntonic and many patients do not seek treatment. It is vital to focus on the development of successful early-intervention programs for individuals presenting at-risk and are on a trajectory towards developing EDs. This study is a randomized controlled trial evalu-ating an innovative digital gamified Acceptance and Commitment early-intervention program (AcceptME) for young females showing signs and symptoms of an ED and at high-risk for an ED. Participants (N=92; Mage=15.30 years, SD=2.15) received either AcceptME (N=62) or a waitlist control (N=30). Analyses indicated that the AcceptME program effectively reduced weight and shape concerns, with large effects when compared to waitlist controls. Most participants scored below the at-risk cut-off (WCS score<52) in the AcceptME at end-of-intervention (57.1%) com-pared to controls (7.1%) with odds of falling into the at-risk group being 14.5 times higher for participants in the control group. At follow-up, 72% of completers reported scores below the at-risk cut-off in the AcceptME group. The intervention also resulted in a decrease in ED symp-tomatology and increased body image flexibility. Overall, results suggest that the AcceptME program holds promise for early-intervention of young women at-risk for developing an ED.

Caesarean scar ectopic pregnancy (CSEP) is an uncommon form of ectopic pregnancy. This review defines types of CSEP, discusses pathophysiology, clinical presentation and diagnosis and compares common treatment options and outcomes. The pathophysiology is not yet fully understood. One third of patient are asymptomatic. In symptomatic patients vaginal bleeding and pelvic pain which is usually misdiagnosed as threatened or missed abortion. The main principles of treatment for CSEP are early diagnose, quick management, and maintain reproductive function as much as possible. Up to date; no consensus or guidelines for the treatment and management of CSEP. Management of CSEP depends on the clinical presentation and gestational age. Significant controversy exists regarding management, for this reason, several factors should be considered including age of the patient, myometrial thickness, clinical symptoms, hemodynamic status, fertility preservation.

Introduction: We investigated the potential effect of smoking on pathological staging in clinically low-risk patients. Material-Methods: Data of 59 patients who were diagnosed with a bladder tumor for the first time and had a single lesion radiologically and endoscopically smaller than 3 cm were investigated, retrospectively. A total of 33 patients who currently smoke or smoked were classified as ever smokers group and 26 patients who did not ever smoke were classified as never smokers group. Pathological diagnoses of the patients in both groups were compared. Results: A total of 9 patients (27.3%) in ever smokers group and 18 patients (69.2%) in never smokers group had Ta disease (p<0.05). Morover, 19 patients (57.6%) in ever smokers group and 5 patients (19.2%) in never smokers group had T1 disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with low grade (LG) tumor were 8 (24.2%) and 19 (73.1%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). The number of patients with high grade (HG) tumor were 25 (75.8%) and 7 (26.9%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). Ta HG was detected in 9 (27.3%) patients in ever smoking group. In contrast, no patients in never smoking group had Ta HG disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with T1 HG was 17 (51.5%) in ever smoking group and 2 (7.69%) in never smoking group (p<0.05). Conclusion:Smoking seems to associate with pathologically worse stage and grade in patients with primary, single, < 3cm bladder cancer.

As in many parts of the world, rural-urban, forest-urban interface areas surrounding urban regions expose the natural areas they interact with to a threat of fire risk that can reach various sizes. This risk has been assessed for various regions of the world using many different methods and numerical models so far. Among these, it is seen that machine learning models have successful applications in risk assessment and risk prediction studies. For the fire risk prediction of Istanbul's yet unurbanized regions, but where the city is anticipated to potentially shift, data was collected using the opportunities provided by Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing technologies based on fires that occurred between 2000-2021, and the region was examined. Machine learning methods' Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Light Gradient Boosting (LGB) models were applied for the classification of factors effective in fire. The best result was given by the RF model with 0.93 accuracy, 0.062 F1 score, and 0.753 Area Under Curve (AUC) value. In the classification of factors in the RF model, the grouping between fire-initiating factors and factors effective in spreading is evident, while this distinction is partially noticeable in the other two models.

The long-term laboratory aspects of the effects of COVID-19 on liver function are still not well understood. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the hepatic clinical-laboratory profile of patients with up to 20 months of long-term COVID-19. A total of 243 patients of both sexes aged 18 years or older hospitalised in the acute phase of COVID-19 were included in this study. Liver function analysis was performed. Changes were identified in the mean levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and ferritin. Inflammatory markers such as ferritin > 300 U/L were observed in the group that presented more changes in liver function markers (ALT, AST, and GGT). Age ≥ 60 years, male sex, AST > 25 U/L, and GGT ≥ 50 or 32 U/L were associated with ALT > 29 U/L. There was a correlation between ALT and AST, LDH, GGT, and ferritin. Our findings suggest that ALT and AST levels may be elevated in patients with long-term COVID, especially in those hospitalised in the acute phase. In addition, ALT > 29 U/L was associated with other markers of liver injury, such as LDH, GGT, and ferritin.

As the demand for aromatic and medicinal herbs increases, so does the pressure to intensify production, increasing the risk of overexploitation of these natural resources. Sustainability corresponds to the preservation of something that exists in the present and must be maintained in the future, implying accountability and obligation. However, in order to maintain the conditions and essential goods for the survival of future generations, consumers and businesses must commit to sustainable practices. The circular economy is considered one of the solutions to promote a sustainable system and can be defined as a transition from a linear model, where resources are transformed, used and discarded, to a circular (regenerative) model, where materials are reused whenever possible. An ecologically correct approach to waste reuse avoids the negative impacts associated with improper disposal of agro-industrial wastes, such as mass proliferation of microorganisms, production of greenhouse gases, loss of energy potential, and other negative impacts on the environment or human health. The objective of this study is to provide a compilation of good agricultural practices that promote sustainability in the production of medicinal and aromatic herbs, particularly in the areas of cultivation, harvesting, drying, extraction, and packaging, and to highlight the potential for evaluating processing residues in medicinal and aromatic herbs.

Smoking is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases and remains a significant public health challenge in many lower- and middle-income countries (LMIC) including Namibia. The purpose of the study was to estimate the prevalence of smoking and its associated risk factors among HCWs and non-HCWs in Zambezi region. An exploratory cross-sectional survey was conducted between March and October 2020 among residents of the eight (8) constituencies of Zambezi region. Four hundred and sixty-one (461) respondents who had been residents of the selected constituencies for over five years and aged between 17-60 years were selected for the study. The main outcome measure was current cigarette smoking status. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents. We stratified data analysis by individual being health workers or non-health workers. A bivariate Pearson Chi-square test was used to determine the association between socio-demographic characteristics and the smoking status. Statistically significant variables in the bivariate analysis were used as predictors in the univariate and multivariate models. The response rate of potential participants was 95% (n=434). The mean (±SD) age of participant’s was 32.5 (± 11.34 years). Significant relationships were observed between smoking status and area of residency (constituency), gender, age category, level of education, age of onset of smoking and the daily smoking frequency. The majority of smokers (n=108) were none-HCWs with males being the majority (n=62). Age (p=0.001), education levels (p=0.001) and area of residency (p=0.022) were highly associated with smoking among none-HCW while marital status was associated with smoking among HCWs (p=0.013). In the final multivariate model, the odds of smoking among female non-HCWs were significantly lower (OR: 0.386; 95% CI: 0.228 – 0.655). Furthermore, the odds of smoking among this same group were lower among those who had secondary level education (OR: 0.178; 95% CI: 0.0659 – 0.483), post-secondary (OR: 0.117, 95% CI: 0.0412 – 0.330) and first stage tertiary (OR: 0.306: 95% CI: 0.106 – 0.881) compared to those who had primary school education. In conclusion, smoking prevalence among none HCWs and HCWs working in Zambezi included in the study was similar to that of the general Namibian population but higher than other neighboring countries within SADC. The results showed a need for the establishment of specific smoking related strategies that target HCWs to address smoking use parallel to the running of none HCWs which would ultimately decrease the smoking prevalence and improve health.

The current global financial sector is dedicated to providing customers with more advanced and strategic services. With channels like internet banking, mobile phone banking, and telephone banking, the industry delivers multi-channel banking services to satisfy its clients. The COVID-19 pandemic has directly impacted the global economy, as well as the financial sector, with the banking sector facing lockdown initiatives to curb the virus's spread. As a result, mobile payment methods have been favored by people over physical money for transactions. This study analyzes the factors that influenced mobile banking usage during the pandemic in Sri Lanka.. Convenience sampling was used, comprising of 200 online questionnaires conducted among customers in Sri Lanka. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and multiple linear regression through IBM SPSS 25. Research findings revealed that trust and risk were significant factors affecting mobile banking usage in Sri Lanka. Trust had a positive effect while Risk negatively effects to the mobile banking usage. Ease of use and Usefulness were irrelevant factors during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka.

Past exploration for U deposit in the Philippines discovered the mineralization of radioactive allanite in Palawan. The allanite occurs as sand component in the heavily populated beach of Erawan, San Vicente, Palawan. This work assessed the risks associated with the radionuclides in Erawan beach by in situ ground radiometric survey of K, U, and Th in 694 sampling points. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to determine the similarity between the radionuclides and to identify other probable anthropogenic sources of radionuclides. Our results show that the mean activity concentrations of K (597.8 Bq kg^-1) and Th (93.15 Bq kg^-1) are equivalent to 1.5 and 3.1 times of the world average natural radioactivity levels in soil, respectively, while the mean U (34.7 Bq kg^-1) is similar to the world average. The mean radiological risk assessments like radium equivalent, gamma specific activity index, external hazard index, internal hazard index, absorbed gamma dose rate, annual effective dose equivalent, annual gonadal equivalent dose, and excess lifetime cancer risk are 213.96 Bq kg^-1, 0.78, 0.58, 0.67, 97.24 nGy h^-1, 119.25 µSv y^-1, 684.39 µSv y^-1, and 0.42 (10^-3), respectively. Th consistently correlated most to the risks. We attribute the occurrence of Th to the presence of allanite, K to fertilizer use for farming, and U to both the allanite and farming. The results of our study can provide important baseline data for future detailed studies or monitoring of the long-term effects of elevated radiation levels to the local population of Erawan.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.

Emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) of anthropogenic origins are ubiquitous in environmental compartments, including aquatic systems. Thus, EOCs have attracted considerable research and public attention due to their potential human and ecological health risks. However, compared to other aquatic environments such as wastewater systems, comprehensive reviews focussing on the occurrence and human health risks of EOCs in drinking water systems are still lacking. Therefore, to address this knowledge gap, the current review posits that drinking water systems harbour a cocktail of toxic EOCs, which pose public health risks via multiple exposure routes. In the present review, global evidence is examined to track EOCs along the source-pathway-receptor-impact-mitigation (SPRIM) continuum. Evidence shows that, various groups of EOCs, including pharmaceuticals and personal care products, solvents, plasticizers, endocrine disrupting compounds, gasoline additives, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), food colourants, artificial sweeteners, and musks and fragrances, have been detected in drinking water systems. The anthropogenic sources of EOCs detected in drinking water systems, including wastewater systems and industrial emissions, are summarized. Further, the behaviour and fate of EOCs in the drinking water systems, including removal processes are discussed. Once in drinking water systems, human exposure to EOCs may occur via ingestion of contaminated drinking water and cooked foods, and possibly dermal contact and inhalation. The high-risk environments, and risk factors and behaviours predisposing humans to EOC exposure are discussed. Evidence on the human health risks of the various EOCs and a critique of the data are presented. Notably, besides inferential data, quantitative epidemiological evidence directly relating the occurrence of EOCs in drinking water systems to specific adverse human health outcomes is still scarce. Lastly, future research directions, including the need for quantitative public health risk assessment, and the application of emerging detection tools are discussed.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), locally known as Khaliji, is a group of six Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health concern in the GCC region, but the research that synthesized the trend has received scant attention. The present narrative review examines existing research on the prevalence and frequency of IPV among Khaliji women in GCC nations. This review synthesized studies on physical violence, sexual violence, emotional abuse, and controlling behaviors perpetrated by an intimate partner. The prevalence rates of IPV among Khaliji women are observed to be high: women reported facing different types of abuse from their partners, namely physical (7% - 71%), sexual (3.7% - 81%), financial (21.3% - 26%) and psychological (7.5% - 89%), which is a culmination of controlling behavior (36.8%), emotional (22% - 69%) and social violence (34%). The extant studies in the GCC suggest that the most endorsed IPV was psychological abuse (89%) followed by sexual violence (81%). Qualitative content analysis of the associated factors resulted in four meaningful descriptors such as demographics of the victim, sociocultural factors, socioeconomic, and perpetrator-related issues. The study on IPV is still nascent and few. The way forward will require developing culturally appropriate interventions that address unique risk factors for IPV among Khaliji populations, strengthening institutional responses, and increasing awareness and social support for the victim of IPV.

Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.

The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.

This systematic review followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement to synthesizes the existing literature with a goal to review current conceptual frameworks of mental health of forced migrants for further practice research priorities in social work. The search was done between January 2015 to January 2021. As a result, 29 studies met inclusion criteria. Medicalizing mental health issues by relying solely on the effectiveness of medicine was a controversial risk factor that negatively affected the daily life activities of refugees and reduced their willingness for seeking professional mental health services. Empowering vulnerable minorities by giving them back their power and agency to be able to speak for themselves and raise voices of trauma and recovery was the missing protective factor for sustainable mental health practice. The benefits of group-based interventions are highlighted in which communities and individuals address mental health issues as well as isolation through building collective identities and support networks. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) can add more strength to any kind of mental health intervention. Finally, the benefits of applying ecological perspective for the mental health of refugees, and its implications for a sustainable intercultural practice are discussed. Social workers in this model are the representatives of at-risk groups, thus need more agency and creativity in reflecting client’s concrete needs.

OBJETIVE: This study analyses the views of four groups of healthcare professionals who may play a role in the management of suicidal behaviour. The goal was to identify key factors for suicide prevention in different areas of the healthcare system. METHODOLOGY: Qualitative research was conducted using focus groups made up of different healthcare professionals who participated in the identification, management and prevention of suicidal behaviour. Professionals included were primary care physicians, psychologists, psychiatrists and emergency physicians. RESULTS: ‘Suicide’ was amongst the most relevant terms that came up in discussions most of the times it appeared associated with words such as ‘risk’, ‘danger’ or ‘harm’. In the analysis by categories, the four groups of professionals agreed that interventions in at-risk behaviours are first in importance. Prevention was the second main concern with greater significance among psychiatrists. DISCUSSION: Primary care professionals claim for more time to address patients at risk for suicide and an easier access to and communication with the mental health network. Emergency care professionals have a lack of awareness of their role in the detection of risk for suicide in patients who seek attention at emergency care facilities for reasons of general somatic issues. Mental health care professionals are in high demand in case of self-harm but they would like to receive specific training in dealing with g suicidal behaviour.

We examine the global legal entity identifier (LEI) system for the identification of participants in financial markets. Semi-structured interviews with data professionals reveal the many ways in which the LEI can improve both business process efficiency and counterparty and credit risk management. Larger social benefits, including monitoring of systemic financial risk, are achievable if it becomes the accepted universal standard for legal entity identification. Our interviews also review the substantial co-ordination and investment barriers to LEI adoption. To address these, a clear regulatory-led road map is needed for its future development with widespread application in regulatory reporting.

Psychiatric disorders are mental, behavioral or emotional disorders. These conditions are prevalent, one in four adults suffer from any type of psychiatric disorders world-wide. It has always been observed that psychiatric disorders have a genetic component, however new methods to sequence full genomes of large cohorts have identified with high precision genetic risk loci for these conditions. Psychiatric disorders include, but are not limited to, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and attention-deficit and hyperactivity disorder. Several risk loci for psychiatric disorders fall within genes that encode for voltage-gated calcium channels (Ca_Vs). Calcium entering through Ca_Vs is key for multiple neuronal processes. In this review, we will summarize recent findings that link Ca_Vs and their auxiliary subunits to psychiatric disorders. First, we will provide a general overview of Ca_Vs structure, classification, function, expression and pharmacology. Next, we will summarize tools and databases to study risk loci associated with psychiatric disorders. We will examine functional studies of risk variations in Ca_V genes when available. We will review pharmacological evidence of the use of Ca_V modulators to treat psychiatric disorders. Our review will be of interest for those studying pathophysiological aspects of Ca_Vs.

The study of the distribution and health risk assessment is meaningful to provide basic data for environmental management．To investigate the pollution of potential toxic organics and their health risk to human beings, water samples were collected at 7 sites of main surface water of Beijing during wet and dry seasons respectively. The targeted 92 organics were detected, including phthalates (PAEs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and phenols. The results showed that: there were 56 organics detected out, and the number ratios of detected compounds to the total compounds of the same kind increased as the following: VOCs, phthalates, phenols, PAHs. 8 VOCs were detected in wet season, and 3 in dry season. The concentration of 2,2-Dichloropropane was highest as 10.62ug/L, while the concentrations of other VOCs were below 5ug/L; There were 11 phthalates detected during dry season. The content of Bis(2-methoxyethyl) phthalate was highest as 188.47ng/L; 17 phenols were found in samples during wet season, and the highest concentration was 1244.73ng/L for 4-nitrophenol; PAHs could be detected in all samples, and the detected compounds and the corresponding average concentrations were higher in wet seasons than those in dry seasons, which indicated that non-point pollution was possibly the main pollution source. The health risk assessment of the detected 56 pollutants by using a model from US EPA showed that, the risk caused by the four kinds of toxic organics in this study was in the acceptable ranges.

Drilling of wells for oil and gas production is a highly complex and expensive part of reservoir development. Thus, together with injury prevention, there is a goal to save cost expenditures on downtime and repair of drilling equipment. Nowadays companies have begun to look for ways to improve the efficiency of drilling and minimize non-production time with the help of new technologies. To support decisions in a narrow time frame, it is valuable to have an early warning system. Such a decision support system will help an engineer to intervene in the drilling process and prevent high expenses of unproductive time and equipment repair due to a problem. This work is describing a comparison of machine learning algorithms for anomaly detection during well drilling. Tested models classify drilling problems based on historical data from previously drilled wells. To validate anomaly detection algorithms, we use historical logs of drilling problems for 67 wells at a large brownfield in Siberia, Russia. Wells with problems were selected and analyzed. It should be noted that out of the 67 wells, 20 wells were drilled without expenses for unproductive time. Experiential results illustrated that a model based on gradient boosting can classify the complications in the drilling process best of all.

Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.

In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) constitute the first cause of death among the population of developing and developed countries. Atherosclerosis, which is a disorder with multifactorial etiopathogenesis, underlies most CVDs. The available literature includes ample research studies on the influence of classic cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. However, environmental exposure to heavy metals, among other substances, is still an unappreciated risk factor of CVDs. This study aimed to assess the concentration of some heavy metals (copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), and iron (Fe)) in the blood serum of postmyocardial infarction (post-MI) patients and patients free from myocardial infarction (MI) as well as estimate the relationship between the occurrence of MI and increased concentration of heavy metals. The concentration of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, and Fe) was assessed using the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique in a group of 146 respondents divided into two groups: post-MI group (study group (SG), n = 74) and group without cardiovascular event (CVE) having a low CV risk (control group (CG), n = 72). The concentration of the analyzed heavy metals was higher in SG. All the heavy metals showed a significant diagnostic value (p < 0.001). The highest value of area under the curve (AUC) was observed for manganese (Mn) (0.955; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.922–0.988), while the lowest value was found for zinc (Zn) (0.691; 95% CI = 0.599–0.782). In one-dimensional models, high concentrations of each of the analyzed heavy metals significantly increased the chances of having MI from 7-fold (Cu) to 128-fold (Mn). All the models containing a particular metal showed a significant and high discrimination value for MI occurrence (AUC 0.72–0.92). Higher concentrations of Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, and Fe were found to considerably increase the chances of having MI. Considering the increasingly higher environmental exposure to heavy metals in recent times, their concentrations can be distinguished as a potential risk factor of CVDs.

Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.

Background and objectives: Induction of labor (IOL) is an event that occurs in up to one-quarter of pregnancies; less is known about the outcomes and safety of IOL in obese pregnant woman; no data is available on misoprostol vaginal insert (MVI) IOL in high-risk pregnancy obese women. Objectives: (1) to evaluate the rate of successful IOL with 200 μg MVI in obese (Body Mass Index - BMI over 30 kg/m2) high-risk pregnant women: late-term pregnancy, hypertension or diabetes, compared to obese non-high-risk ones; (2) to evaluate the safety profile of MVI in high-risk pregnancy obese patients. Study design: We conducted a cross-sectional study in "Filantropia" Clinical Hospital, Bucharest, Romania, from June 2017 to September 2019 (28 months). From a total of 11,096 registered live births, IOL was performed in 206 obese patients; 74 obese high-risk pregnant patients matched the inclusion criteria; of these, 33.8% pregnancies (n=25) were late-term (41 – 41+6 weeks), 43.2% (n=32) had associated pathologies (hypertension and diabetes); labor induction was guided using a standardized protocol. We evaluated the maternal and gestational age, parity, fetal tachysystole, hyper-stimulation, initial cervical status, time from induction to delivery, drug side effects, mode of delivery, and neonatal outcomes. Results: (a) The overall successful labor induction rate, evaluated by the vaginal delivery rate, was 71.6% (n=53), spontaneously or instrumentally assisted; 28.4% (n=21) births were unsuccessful MVI IOL, converted into caesareans. (b) No significant differences were found regarding the maternal outcomes; in terms of perinatal outcomes of safety, four cases of high-risk pregnancies vaginally delivered were associated with neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions and a one-minute Apgar score under seven (5.4%). Most cases with adverse effects of misoprostol have been managed conservatively, except for three emergency C-section cases. Conclusions: Misoprostol vaginal insert is a safe choice in IOL in obese high-risk pregnancies with good maternal and perinatal outcomes.

The effects of climate change on yield and quality for different climate regions had high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. The modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and Statistical Down Scaling Model was used for downscaling. CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk of wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions of Shaanxi combined with two climate change scenarios of CanESM2 were assessed. Temperature increased 0.22-3.34 °C and precipitation increased 10-60 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on yield in all regions. The yield risk of most regions with climate change decreased 3.8%-25.1%. The GPC risk of all regions with climate change decreased 7.3%-27.2%. Irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, while had totally different effects for the three climatic regions. Yield risk with irrigation decreased 37.7%-52.1% in different climate. In contrast to previous studies, GPC risk with irrigation increased greatly 25.8%-28.9% in humid region, 3.9%-8.8% in sub-humid region, and decreased 37.7%-52.1% in semi-arid region. Climate change decreased yield risk and GPC risk together. While irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, had totally different effects for the three climatic regions.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly being recognized as a systemic disease rather than a mere disorder of the lungs. Central (respiratory) and peripheral (limb) muscle weakness are among the main pronounced systemic effects of COPD. While the disease primarily affects the lower limb muscles and contributes to gait impairment, COPD is also associated with an increasing risk of falls in patients (COPDp). Previous studies have reported higher rates of falls among COPDp (1.17 to 1.20 falls/person-year), amounting to four times higher than an age-matched healthy group. Potential fall risk factors include muscle weakness, impaired daily activities, cognitive dysfunction, and gait and balance impairment. Although COPDp often manifest many of these risk factors, there remains a gap in literature regarding falls during walking in this population. This study aimed to 1. analyze the literature to identify the risk factors of falling in COPDp, and 2. investigate the underlying mechanisms by which these risk factors can lead to increased prevalence of falling. The results suggest that in addition to the known risk factors of falling, low back pain and mental fatigue should also be considered as relevant risk factors in the treatment process of these patients. Moreover, respiratory problems, which are common in this population, have demonstrated pronounced effects on energy expenditure, gait, and other types of activities of daily living (ADLs), leading to reduced intensity, disrupted coordination of the trunk-pelvic structure with the lower limbs during gait, and altered motor control performance due to activation of muscles in an inefficient synergic manner. These problems potentially lead to the increased vulnerability of these patients to external disturbances and higher incidence risk of falls and injuries. Cognitive problems, which are typically due to reduced oxygen received by the brain, as well as general inflammation caused by COPD, also play a significant role in gait disruption and balance. Future research is warranted to determine the prevalence of falls in COPDp by examining the response of these patients to Medio-Lateral (ML) and Anterior-Posterior (AP) disturbances during gait in association with traditional and recommended fall risk factors.

Purpose: Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) affects patients’ quality of life and health. Magnesium (Mg) is an essential mineral and a potent antioxidant. Mg deficiency can worsen oxidative stress caused by sleep deprivation or disorders. The impact of OSA on serum Mg levels and its health consequences remain unclear. Methods: This study systematically reviewed clinical studies investigating the serum Mg levels of OSA patients and the potential relationships with other biomarkers.Results: Six articles were included for qualitative synthesis; five were used in quantitative analysis. Two out of four studies that compared OSA patients to healthy controls found them to have significantly lower serum Mg levels. Our meta-analysis with three studies shows that patients with OSA had significantly lower serum Mg with an effect size of -1.22 (95% CI: -2.24, -0.21). However, the mean serum Mg level of OSA patients (n=251) pooled from five studies (1.90 mg/dL, 95% CI: 1.77, 2.04) does not differ significantly from the normal range. OSA severity appears to affect serum Mg negatively. Serum Mg levels generally improve after treatment, coincide with the improvement of OSA severity. Low serum Mg levels correlate with worsening of cardiovascular risk biomarkers of C-reactive protein, ischaemia-modified albumin, and carotid intima-media thickness. The serum Mg levels also potentially correlate with biomarkers for lipid profile, glucose metabolism, calcium and heavy metals. Conclusions: Sleep deprivation appears to deplete Mg levels of OSA patients, making them at risk of Mg deficiency, which potentially increases systemic inflammation and the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

This scoping study aims to explore the relationships between urban green spaces (UGSs) and cancer. We followed the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews (protocol published in 2018). Eligibility criteria for papers were: 1) to be concerned with UGSs, 2) reporting effects of UGSs on cancer-related outcomes including direct or indirect measures, 3) reporting randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, case studies, observational studies, non-comparative studies, 4) in English or French. The search covered primary studies in the published and unpublished (grey) literatures searching by hand and electronic databases (MEDLINE, Green File, CINAHL and ScienceDirect). Among 1703 records screened by two reviewers independently, 29 were included for qualitative synthesis. We classify the cancers concerned and the effects reported i.e. protective effect, risk or without association. The most investigated cancers are bladder, breast and lung cancer. Our study also identified contributing factors and their mediating effects between UGSs and cancer. Results highlight the wide variety of possible mediating factors between the use of green spaces and cancer occurrence, remission and/or prevention. Knowledge gaps and future research perspectives should be oriented to qualitative research on protective factors, the role of mental health in recovering from cancer and health inequalities.

Road dust resuspension, especially the particulate matter fraction below 10 µm (PM10), is one of the main air quality management challenges in Europe. Road dust samples were collected from representative streets (suburban and urban) of the city of Viana do Castelo, Portugal. PM10 emission factors (mg veh-1 km-1) ranging from 49 (asphalt) to 330 (cobble stone) were estimated by means of the United Stated Environmental Protection Agency method. Two road dust fractions (< 0.074 mm and from 0.0074 to 1 mm) were characterised for their geochemical, mineralogical and morphological properties. In urban streets, road dusts reveal the contribution from traffic emissions, with higher concentrations of e.g. Cu, Zn, and Pb. In the suburban area, agriculture practices likely contributed to As concentrations of 180 mg kg-1 in the finest road dust fraction. Samples are primarily composed of quartz, but also of muscovite, albite, kaolinite, microcline, Fe-enstatite, graphite and amorphous content. Particle morphology clearly shows the link with natural and traffic related materials, with well-formed minerals and irregular aggregates. The hazard quotient suggests a probability to induce non-carcinogenic adverse health effects in children by ingestion of Zr. Arsenic in the suburban street represents a human health risk of 1.58 x 10-4.

One of the most burning topics in cybersecurity in 2023 will undoubtedly be the compliance with the Software Bill of Materials. Since the US president issued the Executive Order 14028 on Improving the Nation’s Cybersecurity, software developers have prepared and bills are transmitted to vendors, customers, and users, but they don’t know what to do with the reports they are getting. In addition, since software developers have identified the values of the Software Bill of Materials, they have been using the reports extensively. This article presents an estimate of 270 million requests per month, just from form one popular tool to one vulnerability index. This number is expected to double every year and a half. This simple estimate explains the urgency for automating the process. We propose solutions based on artificial intelligence and machine learning, and we base our tools on the existing FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable). This methodology is supported with a case study research and Grounded theory, for categorising data into axis, and for verifying the values of the tools with experts in the field. We showcase how to create, and share Vulnerability Exploitability eXchange data, and automate the Software Bill of Materials compliance process with AI models and a unified computational framework combining solutions for the following problems: (1) the data utilisation problem, (2) the automation and scaling problem, (3) the naming problem, (4) the alignment problem, (5) the pedigree, and provenance problem, and many other problems that are on the top of mind for many security engineers at present. The uptake of these findings will depend on collaborations with government and industry, and on the availability and the ease of use of automated tools.

Objective:The application of information technology (IT( is fundamental in the hospitals to stay competitive.In this regard, recognizing the main risks to the implementation of IT in hospitals can provide vastopportunities to improve its efficiency and help to make strategic decisions. This study aimed tosearch for the main risks of implementation of IT projects in the hospitals of Tehran. Methods: This was a practical and cross-sectional study which was conducted in the 18 hospitals of Tehran,Iran, 2018; in which a sample of 65 members were studied. The required data were collected using a questionnaire to examine seven main risks, including market, project management, human resources, technical, organizational, financial, strategic risks. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. Additionally, the method used to test the risks in this study was structural equation modeling, which was ran using LISREL 9.30. Results: The results showed that among the seven main risks of to the implementation of IT in hospitals, the highest and lowest means were related to the human resource risks and the market risks, respectively. Also, according to the SEM, human resource risks and market risks had the highest and lowest effects, respectively. Conclusion: Announcing the use of IT in the hospitals, holding conferences about new IT developments with employees, suitable training, encouraging them to use IT tools, providing a motivating atmosphere to use IT tools for employees, are a few effective ways of overcoming the human resource risks.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

Electricity distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system is modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the energy not supplied are complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.

In this study, we described the most critical risk factors for different malignancies including: breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal carcinoma among others, with an emphasis on modifiable risk factors. We revised the literature review about risk factors involved in the genesis of cancer in various databases, including articles indexed in PUBMED, SCOPUS, PMC, and Google Scholar. Awareness of risk factors enables conscious decisions to be made in an effort to combat malignancies. Knowing risk factors is a mode of fighting malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, practises, and laboratory/clinical interventions were among risk factors of diverse malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, laboratory/clinical interventions all contribute to the genesis and prognosis in a variety of malignancies. We concluded that abstaining from risk factors can prevent the development of many malignancies in a century where this conundrum is raising disproportionately. By informing the public about modifiable risk factors cancer mortality rates can be reduced. It is treated here is to make the public aware of the modifiable risks of cancers.

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and world energy market in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, the study employs a combination of novel statistical techniques ranging from Markov Switching, GARCH and Vine copula. Using a dataset consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices; we find high probability of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes. Furthermore, our results based on the C-Vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: - symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China; South Africa and Russia; and lower tail dependence between South Africa and India; South Africa and Brazil; South Africa and Oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using C-vine copula-based returns and optimize it using Particle Swarm algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results show an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and oil market supporting the existence of lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in oil market. Similar results are found between China and oil. In the upper tail, South African asset allocation is found to have an inverse relationship with that of Brazil, Russia and India suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa and vice-versa.