Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Complementary Micro Coronavirus Model Under Uncertrainty and Utility

Version 1 : Received: 14 May 2020 / Approved: 16 May 2020 / Online: 16 May 2020 (15:42:42 CEST)

How to cite: Gander, J. A Complementary Micro Coronavirus Model Under Uncertrainty and Utility. Preprints 2020, 2020050263 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0263.v1). Gander, J. A Complementary Micro Coronavirus Model Under Uncertrainty and Utility. Preprints 2020, 2020050263 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0263.v1).

Abstract

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

Subject Areas

utility; uncertainty; risk averse; wellness output; treatment inputs; coronavirus; psychological risk attitude; dynamic interactions

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