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ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2273.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: liner shipping; port management; Belt and Road (BRI); port hinterlands; shipping subsidies; autonomous ships; cruise shipping; shipping alliances; connectivity; e-fuels; emissions trading; Yangtze River; China; maritime logistics
Online: 31 May 2023 (14:57:44 CEST)
This paper presents and summarizes the applied research on Maritime Economics and Logistics (MEL), carried out by my teams in Europe and Asia in the past five years. Most of this state-of-the-art research has been funded by external organizations, thus showing the interest of society, and of the global maritime fraternity, in our results. The objective of the paper is to bring to the surface pertinent and ‘hot’ research questions, such as e-fuels and emissions trading, some of which we may have answered, others not; but questions that, nonetheless, open research doors to maritime researchers around the world. In so doing, I have stayed away from descriptive research (of limited value in university ecosystems), staying on our more rigorous output, published in top peer-review journals. It is hoped that the paper will be of value to the wider maritime community as well as, more importantly, to PhD researchers, postdocs and tenure-track university staff.
Mon, 29 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1984.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: retail sales; retail rents; shopping tourism; Covid-19; retail resilience; Hong Kong
Online: 29 May 2023 (06:47:07 CEST)
This research studies the impact of shopping tourism on retail sales and rents, using the Covid-19 pandemic as a quasi-experiment. Shopping tourism refers to individuals who travel primarily for shopping purposes, and their spending patterns can have significant effects on the retail sector. The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted global travel and resulted in a decline in shopping tourist arrivals, leading to a downturn in sales for retailers dependent on shopping tourism. Additionally, the decline in shopping tourism affected retail rents, as the reduced demand for retail spaces posed challenges for property owners in attracting tenants. The study focuses on Hong Kong, a prominent shopping destination, which experienced a significant decline in tourist arrivals and retail sales during the pandemic. The research analyzes the relationship between tourist arrivals, retail sales, and rents using time series analysis and identifies the impact of shopping tourism on retail spaces and rents. The findings suggest a positive association between tourist arrivals and retail sales, particularly during the period of shopping tourism growth. However, the pandemic severely reduced this effect, revealing the impact of shopping tourists on the retail sector. The study concludes by discussing the implications on retail resilience and highlighting the need for further research on the impacts of shopping tourists on retail sales and rents.
Fri, 26 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1929.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; imbalance and insufficiency; weighted Dagum Gini coefficient; quantile standardization
Online: 26 May 2023 (11:11:26 CEST)
In the paper, we measure the digital financial inclusion index of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 based on three dimensions: coverage breadth, depth of use and digitalization degree. By means of weighted Dagum Gini coefficient and quantile standardization, we explored the degree of imbalance and insufficiency of the development of digital inclusive finance in China and four major regions and its structural causes. Using Kernel density estimation method and Markov chain analysis method, we further investigates the evolution trend of imbalance and insufficiency. The study finds that (1) the Digital Inclusive Financial Index in China and the four major regions rise significantly, with the COVID-19 epidemic reducing its growth rate. Of these, the eastern region has the highest development level. (2) The imbalance level of digital inclusive finance development obviously has reduced. The level of imbalance is highest within the eastern region, and the development gap between the eastern and western regions is the widest. The imbalance of overall development is mainly due to the regional imbalance. The imbalance of coverage breadth and depth of use is the main structural cause of unbalanced development in the four major regions. There is a trend of bipolarization or multipolarization in China and the other three major regions, with the exception of the central region. (3) The western region is the least developed. The development shortcoming of digital inclusive finance in China and the four major regions is the breadth of coverage. There are "Club Convergence" and "Matthew Effect" in the eastern, central and western regions.
Wed, 24 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1678.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Europe; Income Distrubution; Relative Distribution; RIF-regression
Online: 24 May 2023 (03:34:42 CEST)
The issue of polarization, as opposed to inequality, has been little explored for European countries. in this paper, using harmonized data produced by Luxembourg Income Study Database, observes income trends for 12 European countries, showing an increase in polarization in many of the countries considered. the drivers that led to this concentration of income are also analyzed, noting heterogeneous factors within countries.
Fri, 19 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1417.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Ebola; EVD; cost-analysis; cost-benefit analysis;
Online: 19 May 2023 (09:40:54 CEST)
Background: Significant national and global costs were incurred from recent emerging infectious disease outbreaks, notably H1N1 highly pathogenic influenza, Zika and Severe Acute Respiratory Disease (SARS), both in the medical sphere and within the socioeconomic context around it. With forecasts expecting an increase in direct and indirect burden of novel infectious disease events, costs of future outbreak events are likely to be exacerbated. In this scope, it is critical for countries to identify this trend and work towards minimizing costs while continuing to improve prevention, treatment and mitigation. Objectives: The impacts of the West Africa Ebola crisis have largely focused on the response to the outbreak abroad. The aim of this paper was to determine the direct and indirect domestic costs of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) introduction into the United States (U.S.), compare the economic consequences of the epidemic with other disease outbreaks and identify the primary drivers of such costs to leverage more global health preparation to prevent, prepare for, and respond to disease threats more effectively. Methods: I conducted a literature review of 1) EVD cases documented by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), 2) scientific articles identifying the costs of Ebola for the U.S. and countries around the world and 3) grey literature on treatments and public reactions. Extrapolating data from these sources, I then performed a cost-analysis of direct costs (preparation, treatment and contact tracing) and indirect costs (loss of productivity owing to disease, death, and risk avoidance behaviors) of the disease. Findings: The country spent between $300-$700 million in direct costs. Additionally, roughly $200-$340 million were forgone as results of loss of productivity from to disease, death or social risk avoidance behaviors. The cost-per-case for the United States was vastly higher than for any other country. Conclusions: High direct costs suggest that either the United States took disproportionate preparative measures to mitigate a potential American outbreak or were unprepared for a potential outbreak of this magnitude. The significant risk avoidance behavior estimates hint that forces having the ability to shape social attitudes and norms – namely traditional and online media – played a significant role in driving social behavior towards fear of exposure to others. The findings reinforce that outbreaks occurring in a single part of the world can have dramatic economic effects globally, even in areas with existing public health capacity and other preventive measures, highlighting the need for change in global health systems to shift from a passive responder and incorporate other societal actors to effectively reduce the ever-increasing costs of disease threats.
Mon, 15 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0988.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccine hesitancy; Implication; Consequences; Economic recovery
Online: 15 May 2023 (07:37:36 CEST)
The phenomenon of vaccine hesitancy is a growing threat to public health with far-reaching implications. The widening gap between the vaccinated and the proportion needed for herd immunity raises two critical research questions that are of interest to practitioners, researchers, and policymakers: (1) What determines one’s decision to be vaccinated? and (2) What is the implication of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy on economic recovery? In this study, we use empirical data in the context of South Africa to investigate factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and their implications for economic recovery. Findings reveal key socio-demographic and institutional drivers of COVD-9 vaccine hesitancy, which include age (the youth are more hesitant), inadequate information on the vaccine (those who perceive they have adequate information are vaccinated), trust issues in government institutions, conspiracy beliefs, vaccine-related factors, and perceived side effects associated with the vaccine. Additionally, an individual’s decision to remain hesitant about COVID-19 vaccination has implications for businesses and the economy by limiting movement and trade, increasing unemployment, and causing a resurgence of new variants. Based on the findings, action plans such as information dissemination, convenience vaccination centers, consistency communications, and targeted campaign strategies are recommended for improving vaccine intakes and a positive economic recovery.
Wed, 10 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0699.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Stock Market; CBOE Volatility Index; S & P 500 Index; Investors; Sentiments
Online: 10 May 2023 (07:42:53 CEST)
The research is a deep study of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which represent the market sentiments of the S & P 500 Index (SPX) over a period of 33 years. It evaluates how the two indexes perform in the stock market crash and how reliable VIX is in predicting market sentiments. The research distributes the market rally in two forms, and one is a trust rally, when investors are happy to see the market in a stable form, and investors' sentiments are positive towards the stock market. Second is a fear rally, where investors' sentiments are negative, and their outlook is bearish for various reasons. It observes the pattern of rallies, like the longest trust or fear rally, in which year and its duration. The research analyzes data to reach a meaningful conclusion and various inferences that can be drawn from the study of historical data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0687.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: livestock industry; livestock products; livestock powerhouse; issues and challenges; policy recommendations
Online: 10 May 2023 (04:50:22 CEST)
Accelerating the construction of livestock powerhouses is of great significance to better enhance the ability to guarantee the supply of livestock products and improve the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of the livestock industry. This study constructed an evaluation index system to assess the level of China’s livestock powerhouse and then performed an in-depth analysis of the issues and challenges facing the construction of livestock powerhouses. The research results showed that the level of China’s livestock powerhouse ranked 5th in the world, and the livestock industry was transitioning from being a large livestock country to a powerhouse, while there was still a large gap in terms of reaching the goal of constructing livestock powerhouses. There were significant differences in the level of livestock powerhouses across different livestock industries; the layer industry was the world leader in China, whereas the pig, sheep and goat, and broiler industries were stronger, while the beef cattle and dairy industries were weaker. There are still many challenges to accelerating the construction of livestock powerhouses in terms of supply security, scientific and technological support, operation systems, industry and supply chain resilience, international trade, policy support, etc. It is recommended to improve the institutional mechanism for the construction of livestock powerhouses, promote a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement in livestock science and technology, build a modern livestock operation system, enhance the resilience and security level of the industrial and supply chain, and consolidate and expand international trade and cooperation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0682.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: pig; animal disease; African swine fever; risk assessment; policy recommendations
Online: 10 May 2023 (04:12:16 CEST)
Strengthening the analysis and risk assessment of the pig epidemic will help to better prevent and mitigate epidemic risks and promote high-quality development of the pig industry. Based on the systematic grasp of the situation of live pig epidemics, a risk assessment index system was constructed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the risk of pig epidemics in China were explored by the entropy method. In recent years, the overall trend in pig epidemics in time first increased and then decreased, and in space, the trend in the acceleration of the spread across the country continued to weaken. China still faces challenges, such as many types and a wide range of diseases, large total livestock breeding and weak epidemic prevention and control capacity, and a large risk of introduction of foreign animal epidemics. The spatial and temporal variation in the pig epidemic risk was obvious; there was one high-risk area, two higher-risk areas and 10 medium-risk areas in recent years, and the epidemic risk was highest in Beijing, Hainan, Liaoning, Tibet and Zhejiang. However, there were significant differences in the regional distribution of the risk of pig epidemics in different years. To further build a secure “defense system” for the high-quality development of the pig industry, it is recommended to improve the monitoring and early warning system of pig epidemic risk, perfect the pig epidemic prevention and control system, and strengthen the regional collaboration mechanism of epidemic prevention and control.
Tue, 9 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0632.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Society; Economy; Environment; Development; Maturity Model
Online: 9 May 2023 (10:03:22 CEST)
The Societal Patterns Evolution Model (SPEM) (Gakh, 2023a) has been developed to apply to socio-technical systems. It contains patterns representing stages of societal development. Mapping of these patterns to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and Information Systems was presented at FedCSIS 2022 conference (Gakh, 2022c). This paper discusses the application of SPEM to model the development of three pillars of sustainability: economic, social, and environmental (Purvis, et al., 2019; United Nations, 2023).
Mon, 8 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0540.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Game theory; Nash Equilibrium
Online: 8 May 2023 (12:32:07 CEST)
This paper presents a comprehensive investigation of a strategic game inspired by a notable scene from the movie "A Beautiful Mind." We explore the game's properties, equilibrium behavior, and its relationship with the classic Bertrand competition model. By employing the concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium, we analyze the strategic behavior of players under incomplete information and assess the role of private valuations in determining the game's outcomes. Our findings reveal key similarities and differences between the game inspired by "A Beautiful Mind" and the Bertrand competition model, shedding light on the underlying strategic behavior and market competition dynamics in both settings. Our findings show that for a large number of competitors (n), the reasonable choice is to ignore the blonde. We also found that going for the brunette (the second attractive girl) is more reasonable compared to the blonde. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of our findings for market competition and economic theory, acknowledge the limitations of our analysis, and suggest potential avenues for future research. This in-depth examination significantly enhances our understanding of the game and its potential implications.
Fri, 5 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0286.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation
Online: 5 May 2023 (03:31:39 CEST)
In this article, we estimate the value of Government Expenditure on Education-GEE in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG dataset of the World Bank. We use data from 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We use Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS, and Weighted Least Squares-WLS. Our results show that the value of GEE is positively associated among others to “Case of Death, by communicable disease and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions”, and “Unemployment”, and negatively associated among others to “Hospital Beds” and “Government Effectiveness”. Furthermore, we apply the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of four clusters. Finally, we confront eight machine learning algorithms for the prediction of the future value of GEE. We found that the Polynomial Regression is the best predictive algorithm. The Polynomial Regression predicts an increase in GEE of 7.09% on average for the analysed countries.
Thu, 4 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0243.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: green growth; green technology; technology diffusion; climate change adaptation; sustainable development; panel data
Online: 4 May 2023 (09:03:36 CEST)
This study aims to investigate the influence of various economic, environmental, and social factors on sustainable development, with a specific focus on the impact of green technology and climate change adaptation. A panel dataset comprising 38 OECD member countries from 1990 to 2020 is employed, and a series of dynamic panel data models are estimated using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. Numerous covariates, such as globalization, socio-economic conditions, economic and political values, climate and technological progress, and environmental determinants, are examined. The empirical findings highlight the significant role played by macroeconomic, institutional, social, and government policy-related factors in sustainable development. More importantly, our results provide novel and robust evidence that the diffusion of green technology and climate change adaptation positively affect green growth. The study's empirical outcomes are demonstrated to be robust to misspecification errors and statistically significant at traditional significance levels. These findings carry substantial policy implications for the development and implementation of strategies that promote climate change adaptation and green innovation. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize the integration of green technology and adaptive measures in their sustainable development agendas to foster a greener, more resilient future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0207.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Traveling risks perception; Covid-19; Multicriteria Decision Analysis; South Africa
Online: 4 May 2023 (06:24:22 CEST)
Following the unprecedented and global health crisis of COVID-19, without a doubt, there has been a tremendous impact on international tourism for two reasons: the imposed travel restrictions discourage people from traveling, while travelers watch increased anxiety when responding to the new travel landscape. We address the problem of travelers’ changing travel risk perceptions in the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath. Our main goal is to identify and weigh critical emerging travel risks and create a risk evaluation index in which one can measure the destinations and strategic interventions’ performance for South African travelers. We found that tourist perceived risks are multidimensional, including categories like additional expenses, exchange rates, and refund-related factors. These three criteria are the most important to overall travel risk perception. We applied the developed risk evaluation index to five tourist destinations to evaluate their performance regarding the identified risks, being the UK the country with the best performance.
Tue, 2 May 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0085.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; and Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation.
Online: 2 May 2023 (10:59:35 CEST)
We analyze the question of GDP Growth-GDPG rate in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG framework. We use World Bank data for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020 using different econometric techniques i.e., Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS. We found that GDPG rate is positively associated, among others, to “Government Effectiveness” and “Prevalence of Undernourishment” and negatively associated among others to “Unemployment” and “Research and Development Expenditure”. Furthermore, we have applied the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method and we found the presence of four clusters in the sense of GDPG rate. Finally, we confront eight machine learning algorithms to predict the value of GDPG rate and we found that the Polynomial Regression is the best predictor. The Polynomial Regression predicts an increase of GDPG rate equal to 2.88% on average for the analysed countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0037.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Covid-19; Local and organic food; Households’ decisions; Contingent valuation; Willingness to pay
Online: 2 May 2023 (01:38:45 CEST)
Food demand and food supply have been heavily affected by Covid-19 pandemic. To understand changes in households’ behavior related to the pandemic, we investigate the willingness to pay for local organic apples pre- and during Covid-19. Besides, we assess whether the changes occurred within the family, estimating also separate models for the two members of the couple. Our findings show that respondents show a positive price premium for local organic apples whose consumption helps reducing the environmental costs associated with food production. The median estimated values during the pandemic range from 34% to 250%. Overall, respondents show a positive mean willingness to pay which increase with the pandemic. The socio-economic variables are the most important in explaining the willingness to pay, while the behavioral variables have more heterogeneous results even if the lifestyle and the request for information through the label are important variables. The pandemic tends to narrow the gaps in preferences between members of the couple. In conclusion, the local and organic dimension is embodied in the short chain in which knowledge and trust in the producer are crucial elements in the consumer's choices.
Fri, 21 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0718.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making, General, Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behaviour, Bureaucracy, Administrative Processes in Public Organizations, Corruption, Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation, Implementation.
Online: 21 April 2023 (10:23:12 CEST)
We estimate the determinants of Emissions-COE in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG model at world level. We use data of the World Bank for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We found that the level of COE is positively associated, among others to “Methane Emissions”, “Research and Development Expenditures”, and negatively associated among others to “Renewable Energy Consumption” and “Mean Drought Index”. Furthermore, we have applied a cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of four cluster. Finally, we apply eight machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of the future value of COE and we find that the Artificial Neural Network-ANN algorithm is the best predictor. The ANN predicts a reduction in the level of COE equal to 5.69% on average for the analysed countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0669.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Government intervention; Pest and disease control outsourcing; Evolutionary game; Simulation analysis; Policy instruments
Online: 21 April 2023 (03:55:43 CEST)
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore, from the perspective of government interven-tion, behavioral logic and game relationship among farmers, service organizations and the gov-ernment in the pest and disease control outsourcing system, as well as the endogenous motiva-tion of each subject. The results indicate that the stronger the willingness of each subject, the faster the stable state of joint pest and disease control among the three parties can be formed; In the case of implementing a single policy tool, the convergence rate of each party that imple-ments the regulatory policy alone is fast but may be unstable, while the rate is slow but more stable when a guidance- or incentive-based policy is solely applied; The effect of policy tool combination is much better than that of a single policy tool applied. The simultaneous imple-mentation of the three types of policy tools can form a policy system with both positive and negative mechanisms, which can maximize complementary and superposition effect.
Thu, 20 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0643.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: cognitive biases; decision-making; experiment; heuristics
Online: 20 April 2023 (10:03:48 CEST)
This thesis presents findings from an online experiment aimed at evaluating individuals' attitudes towards their own cognitive biases that lead to objective mistakes. In a number of incentivized decision problems, a participant in the experiment might make a mistake and choose a dominated lottery (FOSD lottery), which is likely to result from a particular heuristic or cognitive bias. In this case, she is then confronted with her error under one of two treatments: a confrontation with an explanation only regarding the mistake or one with the addition of the supposed mechanism (bias). Following this explanation, her comfort level with her choice is measured. A bias that acted as a mechanism for the observed error could be considered advantageous (i.e., useful given alternative costs) or disadvantageous (i.e., mostly harmful) in other decision-making scenarios encountered during one's lifetime. Consequently, the perception of cognitive biases is subjective and may vary among decision makers, who may emphasize either the positive or negative aspects of such biases. The proposed methodology allows to determine whether these biases are perceived as useful rules of thumb, despite leading to a dominated lottery choice in that particular context, or unfavorable.Results revealed significant differences between the two treatments and across five different decision problems. Interestingly, the results showed that in only 60% of the cases, the participants felt uneasy about their mistakes. In the remaining instances, the participants demonstrated either indifference or a sense of comfort with their choice of a dominated lottery. The net effect of providing information on the cognitive biases that presumably lead to the mistakes, measured as the difference between treatments, revealed a negative perception of the mechanism behind the error in one problem, contentment with the mechanism for another, and no significant effect for the remaining biases.
Fri, 14 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0329.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: psychosocial; institutional; economic factors; Social and Solidarity Economy (SSE); agricultural policies; Tunisia
Online: 14 April 2023 (02:15:57 CEST)
The SSE seems to be subject to certain paradoxes African countries. The current study attempts to understand the factors that motivate farmers to engage in a SSE organization .The findings reveal that one of the most important pillars of the success of the social and solidarity economy is found in informal solidarity groups. Concerning the locking factors that prevent farmers to engage in initiatives of economy and solidarity organizations, the first reason is related to the negative symbolic representation of cooperatives inherited from the Tunisian institutional history, the memorial trauma of the collectivist experience of the 1960s, followed by the institutional and political factors determining this situation: the weak and inadequate intervention of the Tunisian state before and after the revolution.
Tue, 11 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0216.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; and Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation
Online: 11 April 2023 (08:53:07 CEST)
We estimate the value of Research and Development Expenditures as a percentage of GDP-RDE in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG model. We use the ESG World Bank database. We analyze data from193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We apply a set of econometric techniques i.e. Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS, Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Weighted Least Squares-WLS. We found that the level of RDE is positively associated, among others, to “Nitrous Oxide Emissions” and “Scientific and Technical Journal Articles”, and negatively associated, among others to “Heat Index 35”, “Maximum 5-day Rainfall”. Furthermore, we perform a cluster analysis with the application of the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method. The results show the presence of four clusters. Finally, we confront eight different machine-learning algorithms to predict the future value of RDE. We find that Linear Regression is the best predictive algorithms. RDE is expected to growth on average of 0.07% for the analysed countries.
Fri, 7 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0120.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation (IN); technology revolution (TR); foreign direct investment (FDI); economic growth (EG)
Online: 7 April 2023 (09:01:00 CEST)
Changing climate conditions and rapidly increasing carbon dioxide emissions have severely affected the global ecosystem and world economy. Governments around the world have paid attention to these resulting challenges and enacted many policies to reduce environmental pollution and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study aimed to determine and understand the relationship between innovation, foreign direct investment, economic growth, renewable consumption and CO2 emission in Vietnam. Information was collected annually based on the annual data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam and World Bank from 2000 to 2022. Data processing was conducted using the STATA 17.0 software. The innovation affects Vietnam’s environmental pollution. Innovation positively affect environmental pollution in Vietnam; if Vietnam’s innovation were to increase by 1%, CO2 emissions would increase by 0.68%. The empirical research results of this study also show that renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on environmental pollution in Vietnam; if renewable energy were consumed at a 1% increase, CO2 emission would decrease by 0.51%. In addition, FDI inflows and economic growth have strongly positive affecting to environmental pollution; if Vietnam’s FDI inflows were to increase 1%, CO2 emissions would increase 1.39%; if Vietnam’s GDP increase 1% then CO2 emission would increase 1.26%. This paper also provides some recommendations that can assist Vietnam in developing a green and sustainable economy in the technology revolution 4.0 to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over a long-term period.
Tue, 4 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0031.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: self-sufficiency degree; planetary health diet; land consumption; food sovereignity; livestock; consumption
Online: 4 April 2023 (02:22:26 CEST)
The way people in many countries eat today is disconnected to the resources and land locally available. In Europe, for instance, too much meat is eaten, but often cannot be fed by local resources. The percentage of non-local and non-seasonal food is tremendous, exploiting other regions and their water reservoirs. Current diets harm eco systems and people’s health. (Re-)regionalising food systems and aligning diets to planetary boundaries could be one way to reconnect people to the food they eat. Before demanding the (re-)regionalisation of food, it should be analysed whether current consumption patterns can be met at all with the regionally available agricultural land. We looked at the region Hesse in Central Germany, calculated and compared land consumption of current diets with the consumption as recommended by the Planetary Health Diet. Our focus is on livestock because land consumption to produce meat, dairy and eggs is relatively high. Our results show that the region is far from being able to feed the current livestock population, that it does not have the land to support the livestock needed to meet current consumption patterns, but that it could support a smaller livestock population according to the Planetary Health Diet, especially if farmers adopt crop rotation systems and extensive husbandry.
Mon, 3 April 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0030.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes; Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation
Online: 3 April 2023 (14:36:13 CEST)
In this article, we estimate the role of Political Stability and Absence of Violence and Terrorism-PS in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG data at world level. We analyse data from 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We apply Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects and Pooled Ordinary Least Square-OLS. We found that PS is positively associated, among others, to Population Density and Government Effectiveness, and negatively associated, among others, to Research and Development Expenditure and Maximum 5-day Rainfall. Furthermore, we apply the k-Means algorithm optimized with the application of the Elbow Method and we find the presence of four clusters. Finally, we propose a confrontation among eight different machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of PS and we find that the Polynomial Regression shows the higher performance. The Polynomial Regression predicts an increase in the level of PS of 0.25% on average for the analysed countries.
Fri, 17 March 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0311.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: risks; COVID-19 pandemics; Russian economy, financial stimulation, risk management.
Online: 17 March 2023 (01:44:15 CET)
The research objects are the tax and budgetary policies of the Russian Federation. In this research, financial (budgetary) risks are understood as a decrease in the balance of the state (national) budget resulting from a reduction in revenues or an increase in expenditures. This research considers production in the main sectors of the economy as a key factor of financial risk in the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to analyze the main directions of the budgetary and tax policy of the Russian Federation aiming at supporting the economy and the population during the spread of COVID-19, which is especially relevant in connection with the expected recession in a number of sectors of the economy and a decrease in the level of employment and, accordingly, the well-being of citizens. In these conditions, it is necessary to adjust the budgetary and tax policy to preserve the state’s social obligations and expand social and economic support for businesses and citizens to smooth out the negative consequences of the impact of restrictive measures. The authors applied systemic and institutional approaches and statistical methods. The main results of the research reflect the need to (1) implement support measures (tax and budgetary incentives) for small and medium-sized enterprises, on which the crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic has had the most destructive impact, and (2) to expand the volume of budgetary financing of social programs for financial risk management of the Russian economy during the COVID-19 pandemics.
Wed, 15 March 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0279.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Exponential income distribution; Memoryless property; Equality of opportunity; Veil of ignorance; Gibrat’s Law; Random growth theory
Online: 15 March 2023 (10:05:47 CET)
It has been well known that the exponential distribution is the only continuous distribution that has the memoryless property. Here, we observe that, if the exponential distribution dominates an economy as a probability distribution of income acquisition, then the memoryless property imposes equal opportunities on agents in this economy to acquire earnings. Based on this observation, we propose to identify the emergence of an exponential income distribution as a potential necessary condition for guaranteeing the equality of opportunity. Together with other conditions (such as social and economic mobility), it would promote equal opportunities for income acquisition among citizens. Empirically, we employ the latest data available from four representative market-economy countries (the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and China) to demonstrate that the exponential distribution is a stylized feature of the income structure of the low- and middle-income class, which occupies the great majority of populations. By contrast, the top income classes in these countries obey the Pareto distribution. To validate the relationship between exponential distribution and equal opportunity, we empirically show how the income structure of the low- and middle-income class in China (from 1978 to 2015) evolved towards an exponential distribution after the market-oriented economic reformation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0273.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; and Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation
Online: 15 March 2023 (08:49:24 CET)
In this article, we analyse the determinants of Regulatory Quality-RQ for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We use a database from ESG-Environment Social Governance of the World Bank. We apply OLS, Panel Data with Fixed Effects and Panel Data with Random Effects. We found that the variables that have the most positive impact on RQ, among others, are “GHG Net Emission”, “Mean Drought Index”, and “Heat Index”. We also found that the variables that have the most negative impact on RQ are among others “Renewable Energy Consumption”, “Voice and Accountability” and “Rule of Law”. Furthermore, we have applied the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of five clusters. In adjunct, we confront eight machine learning algorithms to predict the value of RQ and we found that the best predictor is Polynomial Regression. The predictive level of RQ for the analysed countries is expected to diminish of -1,29%. In the end, we present a network analysis with the Euclidean distance and we found the presence of a structure of seven networks using augmented data.
Thu, 9 March 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0180.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Hospital performance; Hospital quality; Sustainability; Performance evolution; Data Envelopment Analysis
Online: 9 March 2023 (13:07:25 CET)
Covid-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, which has spread worldwide since the beginning of 2020. Several pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical strategies were proposed to contain the virus dissemination, including vaccination and lockdowns. One of the consequences of the pandemic was the denial or delay of access to convenient health care services, but also potentially the increase of adverse events within those services, like the number of hospital infections. Therefore, the main question here is: What happened to the performance and sustainability of hospitals? The main goal of this work was to test if the Portuguese public hospitals' performance has been affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We used the Benefit-of-Doubt method integrated with the Malmquist Index to analyze the performance evolution over time. Then, we employed a multiple regression model to test whether some pandemic-related variables could explain the performance results. We considered a database of 40 Portuguese public hospitals evaluated from January 2017 to May 2022. The period 2017 to 2019 corresponds to the baseline (pre-pandemic), against which the remaining period will be compared (during the pandemic). We also considered fourteen variables characterizing hospital quality, divided into three main performance definitions (efficiency and productivity; access; safety and care appropriateness). As potential explanatory variables, we consider seven dimensions, including vaccination rate and the need for intensive care for Covid-19 infected people. Results suggest that Covid-19 pandemic features help explain the drop on access after 2020, but not the evolution of safety and appropriateness of care, which surpris-ingly increased the whole time.
Tue, 28 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0495.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: decarbonisation; energy supply security; energy demand; energy systems; industry; capacity planning
Online: 28 February 2023 (02:53:02 CET)
The quickest and easiest way to avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to purchase renewable electricity and offset the remaining emissions. However, the industrial sector’s electricity needs already exceed renewable electricity generation. Moreover, electricity accounts for only one third of the industry’s energy needs. Simultaneously, the advance of sectoral coupling and the decarbonisation of industrial processes, as well as the desire to rapidly decrease dependence on fossil fuels, are creating significant additional demand for renewable energy. Neither existing nor planned generation and transmission infrastructure will suffice to meet the expected short-term demand. Based on survey data from the German Industry Energy Efficiency Index, this article therefore examines the share of GHG savings that companies intend to achieve on- and off-site. Understanding how much additional generation and transmission capacity is needed by the industry to decarbonise and by when is crucial to identify and address the extent of excess demand. On average, companies plan to avoid 22 % of their 2019 emissions by 2025 and 27 % by 2030, primarily through on-site measures. In combination with the extrapolation of the entire industry’s needs for off-site capacity, the data calls for a rapid expansion of planning authority and green generation capacities.
Fri, 24 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0424.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: NFT; Fintech; Blockchain; Finance; Innovation
Online: 24 February 2023 (09:16:21 CET)
This article discusses the impact of new financial technologies, such as Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) on traditional industries such as art, sports, and game, while focusing on the recently formed "Metaverse" market. As a component of the overall blockchain ecosystem, the history of the establishment of NFT is analyzed. The impact of Web3 and intelligent contracts on Fintech are also investigated. This study examines the general trends in the NFTs market, including their price formation, price-influencing factors, and available patterns. Then the paper provides classifications and examples of NTFs. Besides, the technological application and primary technical path are also described. Later, the paper assesses the market's and marketplaces' accessibility. Finally, this study evaluates the management applications of NFTs and analyzes existing platforms, and demonstrates how they can be implemented effectively in various settings. The concluding portion discusses technological obstacles. The study concludes with a discussion of potential applications for the results and prospects for future research.
Tue, 21 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0352.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Risk Disclosure; Corporate Social Responsibility; Jordanian Banks
Online: 21 February 2023 (06:16:20 CET)
The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact on corporate social responsibility when Jordanian banks disclose risks. The main objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between risk disclosure and corporate social responsibility in the banking sector in Jordan. To achieve this goal, data was collected from 23 Jordanian banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) over a period of 10 years, from 2010 to 2019. The data was analyzed using a regression model with four independent variables that represent the risk disclosure; corporate social responsibility was used as the dependent variable. The study also built in controls for the age of each bank, its size, leverage, and ROE, to ensure that the results were not affected by these factors. The results of the study show that all independent variables are positively correlated with corporate social responsibility. This suggests that disclosing risks is an effective way to improve corporate social responsibility in the banking industry. The findings of this study have important practical implications for bank managers, future researchers, and policymakers. The study also highlights the importance of future research in this field in order to understand the relationship between risk disclosure and corporate social responsibility in other countries and within other sectors of industry.
Mon, 13 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0214.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Post-harvest losses; Avocado; producer’s; Quantity; MLR
Online: 13 February 2023 (10:00:45 CET)
Current study was to estimation the post-harvest loss of avocado at the producer level using cross-sectional data obtained from 385 proportionately sampled respondents from Wolaita and Kembata Tembaro Zones, the SNNPR of Ethiopia. Descriptive and multiple regression analysis were used to the amount and determinant of post harvest loss of avocado fruits. Estimated total post harvest- loss of avocados was 24%; of which 5.7% unacceptable harvesting methods and 4.9% of improper storage practices. The respondent's sex, education, income, training, contact with extension agents, distance from the nearest road, and off-farm income were found to be negative determinants, whereas storage accessibility and avocado harvest techniques were found to be positive determinants of post-harvest loss of avocado fruits. Post-harvest management techniques for avocados need to be better understood and used by avocado growers if they are to minimize losses. Post-harvest losses contribute considerably to food insecurity and create a problem for the source of revenue for people and the economy of the country as well. Therefore, the use of a practical and effective post-harvest loss reduction technique could be a sustainable solution to increase food availability, eliminate hunger and improve farmers' livelihoods.
Thu, 9 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0151.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Circular Economy; Traceability; Sustainability; BPMN; Eco-Gamification; Textiles and Clothing Value Chain
Online: 9 February 2023 (01:24:56 CET)
The Textile and Clothing (T\&C) value chain is one of the most polluting in the world and one that produces the most waste. It is, therefore, important to encourage the Circular Economy (CE) model in this sector, to reduce pollution and mitigate the effects of waste production, and consequently increase environmental sustainability. For that, the involvement of the final consumer is essential. And, the final consumer's use of an Eco-gamified application for registering and promoting Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) and Consumer-to-Business (C2B) activities, which extends the life time of textile products, is of utmost importance. In this article, we survey gamification frameworks for analyzing system design level techniques that enable engaging the final consumer in the CE process. Then, we select and use one of such frameworks, Gameful Design Heuristics (GDH), for defining the gamification structure needed to implement on a Business-to-Consumer-to-Consumer (B2C2C) context of a circular economy. As result, we present a B2C2C circular business process model for the T\&C value chain, and propose the design model of a gamified platform for the final consumers, which allows them to register the C2B and C2C activities, from the circular value chain's business process, and benefit from a game-like experience. All model features have been mapped to GDH framework heuristics, validating that it is possible to support a set of defined heuristics of applied gamification for promoting CE in the T\&C value chain.
Tue, 7 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0120.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: digital transformation; innovation performance; total factor productivity; quality improvement
Online: 7 February 2023 (04:39:22 CET)
In recent years, Chinese manufacturing enterprises compete to chase the wave of "digital revolution", digital empowerment has become an important strategic path of technological reform for many manufacturing enterprises. Based on the micro data of listed companies, this paper investigates the impact of digital transformation of Chinese listed companies on the quality of their export products. It is found that digital transformation can significantly improve the quality of enterprises' export products. After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion is still valid, and there are two ways to improve innovation performance and total factor productivity. The export product quality enhancement effect of enterprise digital transformation also has the heterogeneity of ownership, region and industry. In the further study, this paper also examines the impact of digital transformation on the internal salary gap of enterprises, and finds that digital transformation may increase the internal salary gap of enterprises, and form a "masking effect" on the quality of export products. To a certain extent, this paper deepens the understanding of the study of enterprise digital transformation on the quality of export products and its differences, and provides certain guidance for enterprises to implement the strategy of digital transformation.
Wed, 1 February 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0005.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: potential markets; improved forages; food systems; food security; forage hybrids; nutrition
Online: 1 February 2023 (02:45:07 CET)
The cattle sector is strategic sector for both the economic development and food security of Africa. However, the low availability and quality of forage puts the most vulnerable population in the field at risk. Hybrid forages have proven to be a real alternative for enhancing both the food security and sustainability of the sector. They are the product of genetic improvements and combine the superior traits of different materials. In 1987, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) began this line of research and together with the private sector various ma-terials have been released until today. Despite their beforementioned potential, forage hybrid adoption levels are still low in Africa, which is related to various factors among which the availability of seeds and planting material stands out. This document analyzes the potential markets for new forage hybrids adapted to the environmental conditions of eastern Africa and partially western Africa. Likewise, an estimation of the commercial value of these markets is provided. The results show a potential market of 414,388 ha for new interspecific hybrids of Urochloa and 528,409 ha for potential hybrids of Megathyrsus maximus, with approximate values of 73.5 and 101.1 million dollars, respectively. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Kenya have a 70% market share for Urochloa, while South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania have a 67% share for Megathyrsus maximus. The results will help different actors in decision-making, i.e., regarding private sector investments in forage seed commercialization or public sector incentives supporting adoption processes, and thus contribute to increasing food security and sustainability in the region.
Tue, 31 January 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0572.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: analysis of collective decision-making; general; political processes: rent-seeking; lobbying; elections; legislatures; and voting behavior; bureaucracy; administrative processes in public organizations; corruption; positive analysis of policy formulation; implementation
Online: 31 January 2023 (04:39:04 CET)
In this article we estimate the level of Government Effectiveness-GE in 193 countries in the period 2011-2020 using data of the ESG World Bank Database. Different econometric techniques are used i.e. Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, and Pooled OLS. Results show that GE is positively related among others to “Control of Corruption”, “Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism”, and negatively associated with “Percentage Annual GDP Growth”. We perform a cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of four clusters. Finally, we confront eight machine learning algorithms for the prediction of GE. Results show that the Polynomial Regression is the best predictive algorithm. The value of GE is expected to growth on average by 15.97%.
Mon, 30 January 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0556.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Green deal; GHG emissions; carbon neutrality; EU ETS; TIMES-CZ
Online: 30 January 2023 (11:37:56 CET)
The Green Deal for Europe aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and sets a binding EU target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The contributions of EU Member States to this target will be partly determined by the market through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. For the remaining part of greenhouse gas emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the Effort Sharing Regulation sets binding national reduction targets. The paper applies an energy optimization model to analyze the ability of the Czech Republic to meet the climate targets. Given the high level of GHG emissions in 1990 and the significant reduction of GHG emissions in the 1990s, Czechia could achieve a 55% reduction by 2030. However, further decarbonization will be quite challenging.
Thu, 26 January 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0481.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Urban regeneration; housing; capabilities approach; real experiment; redistribution policies
Online: 26 January 2023 (16:07:41 CET)
This work presents the results of an experimental socio-economic study conducted in two shanty towns of Messina as part of a systemic urban regeneration and fight against poverty program called Capacity. The study has shown that the development of a positive attitude towards the future and the confidence in others are associated with the development of the riskiest option, which is the one that can give the highest pay-off. The paper also illustrates the expected and unexpected outcomes of projects for individuals and the community, as well as the economic benefits for the public administration and the society of a strategy that reduces the reliance on social welfare measures as well as the local control exercised by organized crime.
Tue, 3 January 2023
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0019.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elec-tions; Legislatures; and Voting Behavior; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organ-izations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation
Online: 3 January 2023 (08:36:13 CET)
In this article we estimate the level of Control of Corruption for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020 using data from the ESG World Bank Database. Various econometric techniques are applied i.e.: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS. Results show that “Control of Corruption” is positively associated, among others, to “Government Effectiveness” and “Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism”, while it is negatively associated among others to “Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing Value Added as Percentage of GDP” and “GHG Net Emissions/Removals by LUCF”. A cluster analysis implemented with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method shows four clusters. A confrontation among eight Machine Learning algorithms is proposed for the prediction of Control of Corruption. Polynomial Regression is the best predictor for the training data. The level of Control of Corruption is expected to growth by 10.36% on average.
Tue, 27 December 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0508.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: China’s Rural Pension Program; Pension contribution; Trust in government; Propensity Score Matching method; Rural China
Online: 27 December 2022 (03:22:26 CET)
This paper estimates the effect of trust in government on rural residents’ contributions in China’s rural pension program using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method. We construct an analytical framework for rural residents' decision-making in pension program and provide analysis using data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and 25 provincial Departments of the Human Resources and Social Security (DOHRSS) in China. Our analysis shows that rural residents’ trust in government will influence their contributions to the pension programs by affecting their expected return of the investments. Our results suggest that the government should improve rural residents’ trust in government in order to develop a successful and sustainable rural pension program.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0496.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Environmental Economics; General; Valuation of Environmental Effects; Pollution Control Adop-tion and Costs; Recycling.
Online: 27 December 2022 (01:30:08 CET)
In this article we investigate the role of “Renewable Energy Consumption” in the context of Circular Economy. We use data from the World Bank for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We perform several econometric techniques i.e., Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS. Our results show that “Renewable Energy Consumption” is positively associated among others to “Cooling Degree Days” and “Adjusted savings: net forest depletion” and negatively associated among others to “GHG net emissions/removals by LUCF” and “Mean Drought Index”. Furthermore, we perform a cluster analysis with the application of the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette Coefficient and we find the presence of two clusters. Finally, we compare eight different machine learning algorithms to predict the value of Renewable Energy Consumption. Our results show that the Polynomial Regression is the best algorithm in the sense of prediction and that on average the renewable energy consumption is expected to growth of 2.61%.
Mon, 19 December 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0317.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: olive oil; trade; gravity equation; migrant network
Online: 19 December 2022 (03:54:13 CET)
We investigate the determinants of U.S. bilateral imports of olive oil and their dynamics from shocks in foreign supplies and changes in U.S. olive oil demand, using an augmented gravity framework that leads to an equilibrium of bilateral trade flows from olive oil exporters to the U.S. market. The empirical specification is applied at the disaggregated HS-6 level in a panel dataset, and three estimation techniques (truncated OLS, PPML, Heckman), for which the latter two account for zero trade flows, the extensive margin of trade and the potential censored distribution of exports with zero trade flows. We run Reset and HPC tests to qualify our results. On the supply side, exporters’ capacity to exports, multilateral trade resistance, and immigrants’ networks into the US are strong determinants of the bilateral trade flows for both aggregate olive oil exports and for virgin olive oil exports, On the consumer side, U.S. GDP, the import unit value, and immigrant network effects are robust determinants of bilateral flows as well for aggregate and virgin olive oil trade flows. Migrants’ stock, exporters’ GDP and population, and total exports revenues increase the probability of an exporter entering the U.S. market. We could not find robust evidence of consumer behavior being influenced by popular press measures of the emergence of Mediterranean diet and olive oil, or measures of cultural globalization of U.S. consumers.
Thu, 15 December 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0285.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: FIFA; World Cup; Socio-economic impacts; Non-host city resident; Chon Buri
Online: 15 December 2022 (14:59:17 CET)
Hosting FIFA World Cup obviously produce immense socio-economic impacts to a nation. Proximal non-host city perception to mega event was frequently explored, while distal non-host city perception has less investigated. This study assessed the socio-economic impacts of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 in Chon Buri Sports City residents. Participants were 422 Chon Buri Sports City residents from eleven districts. Perception on socio-economic impacts of hosting FWC Qatar 2022 was measured from the translated Scale of Perceived Social Impacts. Extracted seven dimensions by confirmatory factor analysis is consistent with empirical data. Positive impact dimensions are Community Development, Community Pride, Economic Benefits. Negative impact dimensions are Traffic Problems, Security Risks, Economic Costs, and Environmental Concerns. Chon Buri Sports City residents perceived fewer negative impacts than other non-host city residents. Positive impacts of hosting FWC Qatar 2022 has more influenced on Chon Buri Sports City residents’ perception than negative impacts. These findings advantage for sport stakeholders to deeper understand the impacts of mega event hosting.
Mon, 12 December 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0193.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: environmental economics; general; valuation of environmental effects; pollution control adoption and costs; recycling
Online: 12 December 2022 (04:40:25 CET)
In this article we investigate the impact of “Renewable Electricity Output” on green economy in the context of circular economy for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We use data from World Bank ESG framework. We perform Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS, and Pooled OLS. Our results show that Renewable Electricity Output is positively associated, among others, to “Adjusted Savings-Net Forest Depletion” and “Renewable Energy Consumption” and negatively associated, among others, to “CO2 Emission” and “Cooling Degree Days”. Furthermore, we perform a cluster analysis implementing the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of 4 clusters. Finally, we confront seven different machine learning algorithms to predict the future level of “Renewable Electricity Output”. Our results show that Linear Regression is the best algorithm and that the future value of renewable electricity output is predicted to growth on average at a rate of 0.83% for the selected countries.
Thu, 1 December 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0015.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Fintech; disruption; transformation; bibliometric analysis
Online: 1 December 2022 (08:09:39 CET)
The present-day financial system is being influenced by the rapid development of Fintech (financial technologies), which are technologies created to improve and automate traditional forms of finance for businesses and consumers. The topic of Fintech as a financial disruptor is gaining popularity in line with the swift spread of digitalization across the banking industry, whereby this paper contributes to the field by presenting a novel bibliometric analysis of academic literature related to Fintech as a financial disruptor. The analysis is based on metadata extracted from the Scopus database through the VOSviewer and Biblioshiny software. The bibliometric analysis of 363 documents identified the most impactful sources of publication, keywords, authors, and most cited documents on the topic of Fintech as a financial disruptor. As our analysis demonstrates the number of publications on the given topic increases, defining both the interest among academia and potential for future research.
Tue, 29 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0522.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: carbon reduction; production automation; labor cost; manufacturing transformation; manufacturing intelligence
Online: 29 November 2022 (02:33:50 CET)
As China put forward its “carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality” goals, how to achieve carbon reduction had become a key for China’s goal. The manufacturing industry is an important source of carbon dioxide emissions. For a manufacturing country like China, adjustments in various aspects of the industry would have a huge impact on carbon emissions. As an important reform of contemporary production mode, the process of production automation in China will inevitably affect China's carbon emissions. Therefore, the analysis of the impact of production automation on carbon dioxide emissions was an important basis for judging the future carbon reduction in China. Refer to the traditional study of carbon Kuznets curve, this paper analyzed the impact of average wage on production automation and the role of production automation in the carbon Kuznets curve(CKC). This paper proposed that production automation plays a mediating role in the process of carbon emissions, and gives a verification model of the mediating role. By analyzing the relationship between average wage and production automation process, the U-shaped curve relationship between them was verified. By examining the relationship between carbon dioxide emission data and production automation industry in China, we verified that production automation plays a partial mediating role in the change of carbon Kuznets curve. Combined with the analysis of the two parts, this paper believed that with the continuous development of China's intelligent manufacturing industry, China's carbon reduction prospects were more optimistic, and there was a good industrial foundation to achieve the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals. Finally, this paper proposes policy suggestions as increase research investment in production automation, help promote the application of production automation, encourage the research and application development of low-carbon technology, especially encourage modular design, so as to give full play to the role of production automation in the process of carbon neutrality in China.
Mon, 21 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0391.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Genetically modified organism (GMO); corn; asynchronous regulation; trade
Online: 21 November 2022 (11:55:07 CET)
The stringency of GMO regulation affects trade of agricultural products among countries. On that account, our investigation attempts to shed the light on the complexity of the impact of genetically modified organisms (GMO) regulations among countries on bilateral trade with a focus on GMO approvals. We develop a framework extending Xiong and Beghin (2014) and their decomposition of export supply and imports demand effects. Our approach encompasses the supplemental effect of GMO regulation laxity in production on the exporter’s productivity. It decomposes three effects that impact bilateral trade flows between trade partners: productivity in the source country, sorting cost from bilateral dissimilarity in regulations, and stringency impact on import demand. We estimate the model using a panel dataset of corn trade and two econometric approaches (PPML, Heckman sample-selection). We find that GMO laxity in production of exporters has the most prominent and robust effect of enhancing bilateral trade of corn. The effect of GMO laxity in demand appears to be smaller than the export booster effect of GMO adoption. Finally, bilateral dissimilarity in regulations does not appear to matter, once we account for the impact of GMO in production of the exporters and laxity in demand differentiated for importer and exporters. Hence, GMO approval regulations have dominating multilateral effects rather than bilateral ones.
Tue, 15 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0268.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: franchise market; market saturation; regulation
Online: 15 November 2022 (03:15:09 CET)
The new regulation was introduced to the franchise market of South Korea in that an applicant who wants to be a franchiser must set up direct retail stores and run them for at least one year before recruiting franchisees. Considering the purpose of the regulation, it is inferred that once franchisers run their own stores, their franchisees would be better off than otherwise. Thus, this paper investigates whether franchisees would have the more likelihood to make profit in the case of that franchisers operate their own stores. The result demonstrates that this case could be true. Furthermore, the result also shows that one plausible reason is that the operation of franchiser owned stores could be helpful in reducing cost of franchisees.
Mon, 14 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0245.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation, and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 14 November 2022 (08:26:39 CET)
We investigate the innovational determinants of “Patent Applications” in Europe. We use data from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for 36 countries in the period 2010-2019. We use Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS and Dynamic Panel. We found that the variables that have a deeper positive association with “Patent Applications” are “Human Resources” and “Intellectual Assets”, while the variables that show a more intense negative relation with Patent Applications are “Employment Share in Manufacturing” and “Total Entrepreneurial Activity”. A cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette Coefficient has been realized. The results show the presence of two clusters. A network analysis with the distance of Manhattan has been performed and we find three different complex network structures. Finally, a comparison is made among eight machine learning algorithms for the prediction of the future value of the “Patent Applications”. We found that PNN-Probabilistic Neural Network is the best performing algorithm. Using PNN the results show that the mean future value of “Patent Applications” in the estimated countries is expected to decrease of -0.1%.
Fri, 11 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0212.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Environmental Regulations; Economic Structure; Economic Growth; PVAR Model
Online: 11 November 2022 (03:25:10 CET)
The potential effect of implementing environmental regulations on economic growth is a controversial issue for a long time. As portrayed by Porter hypothesis, environmental regulations may impact on economic growth by reconstructing the economic structure. A number of previous literature proved the connections between the above three parties. With the intention of exploring the nature of this mechanism, it is important to understand the internal inter-relation of the three parties, requiring data from a large economy experiencing the transition in economic structure. By constructing a panel containing data from 30 Chinese provinces over 10 years (2008-2019), this paper investigate the dynamic inter-relation of the three parties by introducing PVAR model with Granger Test. Results reveal that environmental regulations give a “U” shaped impact to economic growth. In return, economic growth promotes the development of economy with a weakening strength. In addition, results also support the hypothesis that economic structure is the intermediate of economic growth and environmental regulations. There is a rooftop for the effect of economic structure to environmental regulations. The rooftop may signify the best optimization of primary structure.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0207.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Fair and sustainable well-being; rural area; complementarities; policies multidimensionality; terri-torial differentials
Online: 11 November 2022 (02:06:31 CET)
Predominantly rural areas make up half of Europe and account for about 20 per cent of the population. Yet most of them are among the least privileged regions in the European Union, with a GDP per capita significantly below the European average and with an average population age higher than in urban areas, although this gap will only slowly begin to narrow in the next decade. Together with a lack of connectivity, inadequate infrastructure, lack of diversified job opportunities and limited access to services, this makes rural areas a less attractive place to live and work. At the same time, however, rural areas actively participate in the EU's green and digital transition. Achieving the EU's digital goals for 2030 can offer more opportunities for the sustainable development of rural areas in areas other than agriculture, livestock and forestry, opening up new perspectives for the growth of manufacturing and, even more, service industries, and contributing to a better geographical distribution of services and industries. In this context, the objective of this work is the construction of a synthetic index of the welfare of European nations, through the Wroclaw taxonomic method and through the use of logit models, for the identification of best practices of local realities and the interpretation in a more im-mediated way of the fair and sustainable welfare of each European nation at a rural level
Mon, 7 November 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0117.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: commodity market; price integration; seasonal price index; cointegration; rice and wheat; impulse response function; wholesale and retail
Online: 7 November 2022 (10:58:26 CET)
Uncertain price movement in staple food commodities puts agrarian economies at risk if not monitored and managed consistently. Hence, an attempt has been made to analyze the price behavior and integration across major wholesale and retail markets for rice and wheat in India. Monthly data (July 2000 to June 2022) on prices viz., wholesale and retail were sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization and analyzed using growth rate, instability index, seasonal price index, Johansen’s test on cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. Findings indicated strong evidence of price dynamics in the selected markets in terms of spatial and temporal variation, clear-cut seasonality linking to production, and price divergence between wholesale and retail markets. Johansen’s test indicated a strong integration between wholesale and retail markets exhibiting unidirectional-, bidirectional- and no-causality. Impulse response analysis revealed that the selected wheat and rice markets are efficient in terms of ‘price discovery’ which takes place initially in the wholesale market, and then transmitted to the retail market. The study advocates decision-making information to the producers, traders, and consumers who have a potential interest in getting advantage of the price movement. It is concluded that strengthening market intelligence and reducing the distortion in markets will improve the existing overall performance.
Thu, 27 October 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0434.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Housing Prices; MRT; Prediction; Machine Learning
Online: 27 October 2022 (11:12:44 CEST)
Real estate has the dual characteristics of consumption and investment. Under the inherent concept of "where there is land, there is wealth", real estate has become the investment target of the main asset. In addition to the supply and demand of the market will affect the price of real estate, many general economic factors will also have a certain impact on the price of real estate. This paper pays a special focus on the effects of MRT on housing prices, finding the closer a house is to an MRT station, the higher its price. In addition, convenience stores are very popularized, and this research report is also interested in whether the number of convenience stores within walking distance will affect the house price. In a word, these two factors do affect housing prices significantly.
Wed, 26 October 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0394.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Coastal cities; Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA); Socio-economic assessment; Systematic literature review
Online: 26 October 2022 (03:33:30 CEST)
Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change hazards (e.g., sea-level rise, flooding, coastal erosion), which can lead to significant impacts at the ecosystem and societal level. Interest in Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is gaining importance due to its potential multiple benefits, including social and environmental aspects, when compared to more traditional approaches such as hard engineering interventions. When assessing EbA strategies, further understanding of the nature-society functions, processes, values, and benefits is needed to increase its application. This study contributes to a better knowledge of EbA by developing a systematic literature review of studies performing socio-economic assessments of climate change adaptation in coastal areas. The analysis of 54 publications revealed that most of the studies assessed adaptation solutions through cost-benefit analysis, followed by multi-criteria analysis, and other techniques. Hybrid adaptation strategies based on different combinations of hard, soft and EbA interventions were considered as potential optimal solutions in a significant part of the assessments. This study suggests the potential co-benefits of EbA in the form of ecosystem services, livelihood diversification or biodiversity conservation, but also stresses the need for further research on this topic, as well as on evaluating how EbA perform in the long-term under climate changing conditions scenarios.
Mon, 10 October 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0118.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Adult Population; Economic Growth; Financial Exclusion; Financial Inclusion; Financial Institutions; Financial Inclusion Strategy
Online: 10 October 2022 (10:07:47 CEST)
It has been observed that most adult citizens, globally, are not enjoying financial services. They are financially excluded, especially rural dwellers. Monetary authorities initiated financial inclusion, with the aim of including all adult population who are excluded from financial services into the financial system at an affordable cost to meet their basic needs. Studies have shown that it encourages household savings and affects growth positively. Central Bank of Nigeria initiated financial inclusion in 2012 and commenced implementation in 2014. Given the short period of its implementation, this study ascertained the effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study used time series data ranging from 2004 to 2021. The study covered the pre-inclusion period, through its implementation period. Ordinary Least Square technique was adopted for data estimation. Preliminary and post-estimation tests were also conducted. Despite the short period of the implementation of financial inclusion strategy, the OLS result affirmed that it positively affects economic growth. It was concluded that financial inclusion is a growth driver. It was recommended that Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with commercial banks and microfinance banks, continue to enforce inclusion exercise in all rural communities, ensuring that women, youths, farmers, traders in the informal sector, are captured by the financial system. Also, Central Bank Nigeria should set up financial inclusion compliance committee at the Local Government levels, with a State Monitoring unit to ensure compliance.
Sat, 8 October 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0093.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: population growth; HIV/AIDS; GDP; per capita GDP; PMG
Online: 8 October 2022 (04:38:48 CEST)
Africa is expected to have a lion’s Share in the world’s population growth by 2050. At the same time, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that roughly 3.4 percent (1/25) of African adults live with HIV making the contient the most severely affected by the HIV pandemic. Consequently, this study, the first of its kind, investigates the impact of population growth and HIV incidence on economic growth and economic development in Africa by utilizing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator on data from 1990 to 2020 across 29 countries. The results show that population growth has a postive long run impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but has a negative long run impact on per capita GDP, albeit the effects are insignificant in the short run. The incidence of HIV has a negative long run impact on both GDP and per capita GDP although its effect is not significant in the short run. The study, therefore, calls for the advancement of family planning practices and the usage of contraceptives to simultaneously control population growth and curb the spread of HIV incidence. The study futher calls for African governments to increase budgetary allocations to the health and education sectors, as these policy perspectives have the potential of increasing the human capital stock and at the same time enhancing the health status of the work force for sustained growth and development.
Thu, 6 October 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0060.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Impact; board of directors; endogeneity; cross-sectional dependence; firm performance
Online: 6 October 2022 (09:22:17 CEST)
The objectives of the research are to investigate the characteristics of the board of directors on the financial performance of the enterprise. Using a sample data from 52 construction and real estate enterprises listed on Vietnam stock exchange in the period 2006-2020. Using typical regression methods such as pooled OLS, FEM, REM and assessing the defects of the research model, the FGLS method is selected. At the same time, due to the existence of endogenous phenomena and the nature of interdependence among enterprises in Vietnam, research using the instrumental variables two-step generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) in order to correct for cross-sectional dependence, autocorrelation, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity in the analysis. Research results suggest that board size, female board members, meeting frequency, and board members' education have a positive influence on financial performance. Moreover, the independence of the Board of Directors increases, the business efficiency decreases. The research also found a positive relationship of tangible fixed assets, and a negative relationship between capital structure choice, firm size and corporate financial performance.
Mon, 26 September 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0397.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: foreign aid; external debt; debt overhang; dependency theory; Ghana; VECM
Online: 26 September 2022 (11:21:57 CEST)
Over recent years, the Ghanaian economy has struggled to find its feet on the ground despite rising public debt and unending inflows of foreign aid. Against this backdrop, this study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation technique on data from 1970 to 2020 to test the usefulness of the debt overhang hypothesis and the dependency theory in the special case of Ghana. The results confirm evidence of the debt overhang hypothesis and the center-periphery wisdom of the dependency theory in Ghana. The findings depict that an increase in external debt stock and total debt service on external debt have both short and long-run growth-limiting effects on the Ghanaian economy. Similarly, foreign aid catalyzes growth only in the short run and later suppresses rather than stimulates economic growth in Ghana over the long run. The study recommends that harnessing domestic resources, maintaining fiscal discipline by cutting down unproductive expenditures, enhancing an effective tax system, and promoting institutional capabilities to counteract corruption and openness to trade are better ways to fast-track growth development in Ghana.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0393.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation; and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 26 September 2022 (10:39:02 CEST)
In this article we have estimated the value of “Opportunity Driven Entrepreneurship” in Europe. We use data from European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for 36 countries in the period 2010-2019. We use Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS, Pooled OLS, and Dynamic Panel. Our results show that “Opportunity Driven Entrepreneurship” is positively associated, among others, to “Innovation Friendly Environment” and “Turnover Share Large Enterprises”, while it is negatively associated, among others, to “Sales Impacts” and “R&D Expenditure Business Sectors”.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0376.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: wildlife conservation; common pool; top-down regulation; private ownership; extinction
Online: 26 September 2022 (04:28:18 CEST)
Wildlife conservation is an important component of environmental sustainability and can be improved by reviewing the performance of its three major models – common pool, top-down regulatory, and private resource -- under varying environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Generally, the private resource model is the most sustainable because it provides the best incentives to balance the needs of humans and wildlife, to maintain general wildlife habitat, and to adapt quickly to changing environmental and/or socioeconomic conditions. Top-down or “command and control” regulation, however, can be employed as a model of last resort if the private resource model shows signs of failing to protect specific species from local extirpation or extinction, which it is most likely to do for migratory species, species with close commercial substitutes, and species with no direct commercial value. Top-down regulators may also be needed to enforce property rights arrangements like catch shares and to monitor resources that remain in the common pool in the event that socioeconomic or environmental conditions change sufficiently to trigger the tragedy of the commons.
Fri, 16 September 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0249.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Green energy; Natural resource rents; Economic growth; SDGs; FGLS; PMG & MG
Online: 16 September 2022 (11:37:20 CEST)
The concept of green energy is now at the forefront of development discourse, with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 11, and 12 all aimed at promoting green energy consumption to combat the three planetary crises: climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. Similarly, issues regarding Africa’s natural resource curse have caused a stir in the growth and development literature for some time now and there is no sign that it will die out. This study, the first of its kind, simultaneously assesses the impact of green energy consumption and Africa’s natural resources rents on economic growth by applying the Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) estimator and the dynamic panel models of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG) estimators on data from 1990 to 2020 for 24 selected African countries. The results show that green energy consumption has a short-run growth-limiting effect and a long-run growth-enhancing effect in Africa. The study also found evidence of the natural resource curse phenomenon in Africa. The study, therefore, calls for the advancement and usage of green energy for both domestic and industrial production in Africa. The study further calls for a revamp in the global tax policy to curb illicit financial activities and strengthening institutional quality for transparency and accountability in the entire value chain of natural resource management in Africa.
Tue, 13 September 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0166.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation and invention: processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion orocesses; open innovation
Online: 13 September 2022 (09:50:32 CEST)
In this article we estimate the value of “Non-R&D Innovation Expenditures” in Europe. We use data from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission from the period 2010-2019. We test data with the following econometric models i.e.: Pooled OLS, Dynamic Panel, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS. We found that “Non-R&D Innovation Expenditures” is positively associated among others to “Innovation Index” and “Firm Investments” and negatively associated among others to “Human Resources” and “Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products”. We use the k-Means algorithm with either the Silhouette Coefficient and the Elbow Method in a confrontation with the network analysis optimized with the Distance of Manhattan and we find that the optimal number of clusters is four. Furthermore, we propose a confrontation among eight machine learning algorithms to predict the level of “Non-R&D Innovation Expenditures” either with Original Data-OD either with Augmented Data-AD. We found that Gradient Boost Trees Regression is the best predictor for OD while Tree Ensemble Regression is the best Predictor for AD. Finally, we verify that the prediction with AD is more efficient of that with OD with a reduction in the average value of statistical errors equal to 40,50%.
Mon, 5 September 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0053.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation, and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation.
Online: 5 September 2022 (08:56:35 CEST)
In this article we investigate the determinants of “New Doctorate Graduates” in Europe. We use data from the EIS-European Innovation Scoreboard of the European Commission for 36 countries in the period 2010-2019 with Pooled OLS, Dynamic Panel, WLS, Panel Data with Fixed Effects and Panel Data with Random Effects. We found that “New Doctorate Graduates” is positively associated, among others, with “Human Resources” and “Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products” and negatively, associated among others, with “Total Entrepreneurial Activity” and “Innovation Index”. We apply a clusterization with k-Means algorithm either with the Silhouette Coefficient either with the Elbow Method and we found that in both cases the optimal number of clusters is three. Furthermore, we use the Network Analysis with the Distance of Manhattan, and we find the presence of seven network structures. Finally, we propose a confrontation among ten machine learning algorithms to predict the value of “New Doctorate Graduates” either with Original Data-OD either with Augmented Data-AD. Results show that SGD-Stochastic Gradient Descendent is the best predictor for OD while Linear Regression performs better for AD.
Wed, 31 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0476.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate Variability; Climate Change; Food Security; Zero Hunger; System GMM; PCSE
Online: 31 August 2022 (03:22:49 CEST)
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the projected increase in the human population stands at 2 billion people by 2050. At the same time, world food production is witnessing a declining trend over recent years, and 690 million (8.9%) of the world's population are already in severe starvation. Climate variability and climate change impacts on food security are very eminent today. For this reason, this study explored the real effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa by applying the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) estimators on data from 2001–2018 for 38 selected African countries. The findings reveal that higher amounts of precipitation positively influence food security along two dimensions (food availability and utilization). Hotter temperatures negatively impact food availability and utilization. However, it aids food accessibility in Africa. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions improve food availability and are harmful to food accessibility and food utilization in Africa. Consequently, the effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa are undesirable, thereby putting the continent at risk of food insecurity over the long run. Given these findings, the study made appropriate recommendations for policy change to address the negative effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa.
Mon, 29 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0476.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate Variability; Climate Change; Food Security; Zero Hunger; System GMM; PCSE
Online: 29 August 2022 (08:14:57 CEST)
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the projected increase in the human population stood at 2 billion people by 2050. At the same time, world food production is witnessing a declining trend over recent years, and 690 million (8.9%) of the world's population are already in severe hunger. Climate variability and change impacts on food security are very eminent today. For this reason, this study explored the real effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa by applying the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) estimators on data from 2001-2018 for 38 selected African countries. The findings reveal that a higher amount of precipitation positively influences food security along two dimensions (food availability and utilization). Hotter temperatures negatively impact food availability and utilization. However, it aids food accessibility in Africa. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions improve food availability and are harmful to food accessibility and food utilization in Africa. Consequently, the effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa are undesirable, putting the continent at risk of food insecurity over the long run. Given these findings, the study made appropriate recommendations for policy directions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0471.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: carbon sequestration; evolutionary game theory; organic fertilizer; food security
Online: 29 August 2022 (07:29:22 CEST)
The application of organic fertilizers plays a crucial role in achieving carbon sequestration in the agricultural sector. This paper discusses how farmers can more smoothly promote organic fertilizer extension services. An evolutionary game model is developed to describe the conflicting interests of Chinese farmers and local governments in organic fertilizer extension services, and the dynamic evolution of the game players and the influence of parameter adjustment on the strategic choices of both parties is presented. In this paper, the game model and the main results are validated with the help of simulation tools, and a sensitivity analysis of the selected parameters is performed. The results show that (1) the implementation of subsidy policy is less helpful for organic fertilizer extension services; (2) The ideal event probability of the game was found to be positively related to the cost of applying inorganic fertilizers, additional benefits to farmers, political returns to local governments, and penalties for not using organic fertilizers; (3) This is important for improving the performance of local governments, reducing government regulatory costs, improving policy support for organic fertilizer extension services, and reducing the cost of implementing organic fertilizer extension services.
Fri, 26 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0461.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Rice; Fish; Culture; Efficiency; Environment; Rice-Fish Culture
Online: 26 August 2022 (14:04:49 CEST)
The efficiency of rice cum fish culture study was conducted in different areas of Tangail district with those farmers who cultivate rice and fish together at a time. The study was conducted along 60 farmers of different areas in Ghatail upazilla. The primary data were collected through face-to-face interviews and secondary data were collected through different reputed journals, newspapers, authentic portals and so on. Data collection was carried out during the period from November 2021 to May 2022. Both tabular and functional analyses were performed to achieve the specific objectives of the study. NPV, BCR and IRR method was used to estimate the profitability and a multiple regression model was used to find out the factors motivating farmers' decision on rice cum fish cultivation. SWOT analysis was done to find out the internal and external-positive and negative factors faced by the farmers in rice cum fish cultivation. About 40% of farmers are under the age of 30 and most of them got at least primary education. Agriculture was the main occupation of the respondents and fish cultivation was the secondary. The highest annual income among the sample growers came from the production of rice cum fish culture. The BCR of the production is upbeat and 2.09 which indicates that the cultivation is profitable.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0445.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Adult children's education; parental longevity; truncated regression; emotional support.
Online: 26 August 2022 (04:18:44 CEST)
Background: Some developing countries, such as China, population is aging rapidly, meanwhile, the average years of schooling for residents is constantly increasing. However, the question of whether adult children’s education has an effect on the longevity of older parents, remains inadequately studied. Methods: This paper uses China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) data to estimate the causal impact of adult children's education on their parents' longevity. Identification is achieved by using the truncated regression model and using historical education data as instrument variables for adult children’s education. Results: For every unit increase in adult children’s education, the father’s and mother’s longevity increased by 0.89 years and 0.75 years, respectively. Mechanism analysis shows that adult children's education has a significant positive impact on parents' emotional support, financial support and self-reported health. Further evidence shows that for every unit increase in adult children’s education, the father-in-law’s and mother-in-law’s longevity increased by 0.40 years and 0.46 years, respectively. Conclusions: It is conclusion that improving the level of adult children’s education can increase parents’ and parents-in-law’s longevity. Adult children’s education might contribute to the longevity of older parents by three channels that providing emotional, economic support and affecting parents’ health.
Mon, 22 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0374.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 22 August 2022 (04:51:50 CEST)
In this article we investigate the determinants of the European “Most Cited Publications”. We use data from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for the period 2010-2019. Data are analyzed with Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS, and Pooled OLS. Results show that the level of “Most Cited Publications” is positively associated, among others, to “Innovation Index” and “Enterprise Birth” and negatively associated, among others, to “Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products” and “Human Resources”. Furthermore, we perform a cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm either with the Silhouette Coefficient and the Elbow Method. We find that the Elbow Method shows better results than the Silhouette Coefficient with a number of clusters equal to 3. In adjunct we perform a network analysis with the Manhattan distance, and we find the presence of 4 complex and 2 simplified network structures. Finally, we present a confrontation among 10 machine learning algorithms to predict the level of “Most Cited Publication” either with Original Data-OD either with Augmented Data-AD. Results show that the best machine learning algorithm to predict the level of “Most Cited Publication” with Original Data-OD is SGD, while Linear Regression is the best machine learning algorithm for the prediction of “Most Cited Publications” with Augmented Data-AD.
Wed, 17 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0300.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation; and Invention; Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 17 August 2022 (04:33:29 CEST)
In this article we analyze the determinants and the export trend of European countries of medium and high technology products. The data were analyzed using various econometric models, namely WLS, Pooled OLS, Dynamic Panel, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects. The results show that exports of medium and high-tech products are positively associated, among other variables, with the value of “Average Annual GDP Growth”, “Total Entrepreneurial Activity” and “Sales Impacts”, and negatively associated with, among other variables, “Human Resources”, “Government and Procurement of Advanced Technology Products” and “Buyer Sophistication”. A cluster analysis was realized with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient. The result showed the presence of only two clusters. Since this result was considered poorly representative of the industrial complexity of the European Union countries, a further analysis was carried out with the Elbow method. The result showed the presence of 6 clusters with the dominance of Germany and the economies connected to the German economy. In addition, a network analysis was carried out using the distance to Manhattan. Four complex network structures and two simplified network structures were detected. A comparison was then made between 10 machine learning algorithms for predicting the value of exports of medium and high-tech products. The result shows that the best performing algorithm is the SGD. An analysis with Augmented Data-AD was implemented with a comparison between 10 machine learning algorithms for prediction and the result shows that the Linear Regression algorithm is the best predictor. The prediction with the Augmented Data-AD allows to reduce the MAE by about 0.0022131 compared to the prediction with the Original Data-OD.
Wed, 10 August 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0200.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 10 August 2022 (09:59:09 CEST)
The article affords the question of lifelong learning in Europe using data from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS in the period 2010-2019 for 36 countries. The econometric analysis is realized using WLS, Dynamic Panel, Pooled OLS, Panel Data with Fixed Effects and Random Effects. The results show that lifelong learning is, among other variables, positively associated to “Human Resources” and “Government procurement of advanced technology products” and is negatively associated, among others, to “Average annual GDP growth” and “Innovation Index”. A clusterization is realized using the k-Means algorithm with a confrontation between the Elbow Method and the Silhouette Coefficient. Subsequently, a Network Analysis was applied with the distance of Manhattan. The results show the presence of 4 complex and 2 simplified network structures. Finally, a comparison was made among eight machine learning algorithms for the prediction of the value of lifelong learning. The results show that the linear regression is the best predictor algorithm and that the level of lifelong learning is expected to growth on average by 1.12%.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0195.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation; and invention: processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion processes; open innovation
Online: 10 August 2022 (07:53:45 CEST)
In this article we investigate the determinants of marketing or organizational innovators in Europe for 36 countries in the period 2010-2019. We have used data from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission. We perform different econometric models i.e. Dynamic Panel, Pooled OLS, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS. Results show that the level of marketing or organizational innovators in positively associated, among others variables to “Innovation Index”, “Innovators” and “Knowledge Intensive Service Exports”, while is negatively associated with “Sales Impacts”, “Foreign Controlled Enterprises Share of Value Added” and “Government procurement of advanced technology products”.
Fri, 29 July 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0457.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Citayam; fashion week; inclusive; makeshift; subculture
Online: 29 July 2022 (09:54:22 CEST)
How the subculture and marginalized community have become the leading sectors in the egalitarian and inclusive creative economy is a growing issue and still needs elaboration. One of the subculture phenomena that happened recently in one of Southeast Asia's countries is known as Citayam Pop-up and Makeshift Fashion Week (CFW). Then this paper aims to elaborate on how the CFW can contribute and play a significant role in the development of an egalitarian and inclusive creative economy. The current CFW was not developed instantly, yet it is through the complexities of push and pull factors that are very typical among SE Asian marginalized people that led to the onset of SE Asian subculture, particularly among the youth. Driven by finding their self-identity, wanting to belong, and combined with economic, family, and peer pressures, this group of suburban youth, at the beginning, find a corner of a city in the middle of the business district as a medium to express their identity in the form of CFW. As a result and in lieu of growing discourses, the CFW has boosted local economic growth, and the adolescents who participated in the CFW have also received endorsement from a startup business for marketing certain teen products. In the long term, the mutual relationships created can lead to job opportunities
Fri, 22 July 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0336.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Environmental Accounting; Life Cycle Assessment; Marine Ecosystem Service; Indicators; Cost Benefit Analysis; Porto Cesareo Marine Protected Area; CICES
Online: 22 July 2022 (11:43:53 CEST)
The article focuses on the integrated environmental accounting model called 'eValue', developed for protected areas and applied in the research programme coordinated by the Italian Ministry of the Environment and aimed at implementing an environmental accounting system for Italian Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). eValue adopts a cost-benefit analysis approach. Financial accounting based on costs and revenues is integrated with environmental accounting, which reflects environmental costs and environmental revenues, i.e. environmental benefits. The environ-mental costs assess the impacts related to human activities in the MPA expressed by calculating the carbon footprint and the environmental benefits of the marine ecosystem services calculated by applying monetary valuation techniques. The values thus estimated flow into the annual flow account, where the value produced (or consumed) by the MPA is estimated by difference. The eValue model was applied to the Porto Cesareo MPA (Italy). eValue showed that the annual benefit-cost ratio reaches a value of 3.4. Furthermore, the ratio of net benefit to public funding is 3.7, completely covering the amount of public transfers and thus summarizing the MPA overall value for money.
Fri, 15 July 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0237.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: crop diversification; resilience; water management; water efficiency
Online: 15 July 2022 (14:54:43 CEST)
The specialisation and intensification in agriculture have increased the productivity but have also led to the spread of monocultural systems, simplifying production and reducing genetic diversity. The purpose of this study was to propose crop diversification as a tool to increase biodiversity and achieve sustainable and resilient intensive agriculture, particularly in areas with water scarcity. In this paper, a combined Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) was applied to evaluate the environmental and economic sustainability of a differentiated system of cultivation (pomegranate, almond and olive), according to modern intensive and superintensive cropping systems. Based upon the results obtained, it is deduced that pomegranate cultivation generated the highest environmental load, followed by almond and olive. From the financial analysis, it emerged that almond is the most profitable, followed by pomegranate and olive.
Wed, 6 July 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0093.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: tobacco control; tobacco farming; FCTC; Indonesia; public health
Online: 6 July 2022 (09:00:28 CEST)
The Indonesia’s Tobacco Excise Sharing Fund (DBHCHT) policy mandates that part of the fund should be allocated for tobacco crop diversification – reducing the farmers’ reliance on tobacco industry as well as implementing Article 17 of Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). However, very little is known on practical implication of this fund on tobacco farmers livelihood. We collected primary data from key stakeholders in four main tobacco producing municipalities. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis with NVivo 12. Numbers of challenges on DBHCHT utilization remained at sub-national levels. The sub-optimal use of DBHCHT could partly be explained by: (i) constantly changing central government regulation; (ii) farmers’ unawareness of DBHCHT regulation; (iii) the delay in DBHCHT allocation; and (iv) supply and demand mismatch. Although Indonesia has not been a part of the FCTC ratification, the DBHCHT mandate is in line with the FCTC article 17, i.e., promoting economically viable alternatives for tobacco farmers. This study concluded that DBHCHT utilization needs to go a long way to void this mandate given the challenges at sub-national level. Therefore, this study recommends more technical and practical regulations involving multisectoral stakeholders and the use of DBHCHT to facilitate financial needs of crop diversification.
Wed, 29 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0396.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Fuzzy Logic; Global optimization; Mechanism design; Game theory; Artificial inference; Global learning
Online: 29 June 2022 (05:22:14 CEST)
This paper aims to introduce an overview of several aspects of the so-called Artificial Intelligence, their potential impacts on economic and social dimen- sions, and suggestions for possible approaches of investiment based upon effective and mature techniques. In this fashion, it is important to address from educational and academic issues to industrial densities and profiles, rel- atively to a given region, country or continent. Even etymological adequacy and psychological consequences of the denomination ”Artificial Intelligence” need some reflection, and suggestions for a lucid replacement are presented. In addition, suggestions about how can specific firms choose the right type of technique in order to improve profit and organizational efficiency. After all, what are the main transformations needed to amplify gains and structural improvements from the use of higher level technological mecha- nisms? Which connections can be established between the pillars of evolu- tionary economics and this field of knowledge? Which institutional contexts are able to benefit from AI tools, inducing constructive externalities to firms in terms of education, technical and scientific skills upgrading, so as to reach higher levels of employment in the long term and limit unemployment in the short one? Which branches of the so-called Artificial Intelligence are best suited to which types of activities? This work aims to contribute in the search for answers to these questions.
Mon, 27 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0345.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: applied strategic analysis; balanced scorecard; learning and growth; personnel; management; company
Online: 27 June 2022 (03:28:09 CEST)
Research background – Learning and growth is one of the essential tools that companies ought to use in today's market economy in order to ensure their sustainable development in the long-term and, consequently, to achieve their maximum market value.Purpose – This article is predominantly of theoretical nature and considers the possibility of using the applied strategic analysis technique that was developed by the author to analyze learning and growth in the course of a study of strategic aspects of learning growth. The technique is based on the balanced scorecard system of the same name. Design/methodology/approach – Methodologically, the study is based on Kaplan and Norton's balanced scorecard concept and the author's concept of applied strategic analysis. Findings – It is shown that applied strategic analysis of learning and growth envisages comparative evaluation, diagnostics of deviations and predictions of the values of the balanced scorecard metrics of learning and growth in the dimension of strategic objectives. It includes analysis of the level of motivation in employees, the volume of authroity delegation and whether their personal goals match company goals; analysis of the expansion capacity of information systems, and analysis of the quality of retraining and the creativity level of employees. The applied strategic analysis of learning and growth with comparative evaluation of the metrics of the level of motivation in employees, the volume of delegation to them and of the match between their personal and corporate goals, and concludes with a prediction of the values of factor measures of the quality of retraining and creativity development in employees.Originality/value – The author comes to a conclusion that applied strategic analysis of learning and growth is a new and sufficiently effective instrucment for studying the strategic aspects of companies' performance that is associated with the training and development of their personnel. The instrument provides analytical support to strategic management as regards personnel training and development in today's conditions. Its results might be useful when working out managerial decisions for the company's short-term, medium-term and long-term plans in the area of learning and growth.
Wed, 22 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0314.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: two-way FDI; structural distortion; ecological civilization construction; spatial econometrics; carbon emission intensity
Online: 22 June 2022 (10:10:13 CEST)
In this paper, industrial structure distortion, two-way FDI and carbon emission intensity are brought into a unified research framework, and based on China's panel data from 2011 to 2020, empirical tests are conducted employing Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), spatial econometric model and intermediary effect test. The results show the following. Firstly, China's industrial structure distortion index shows a downward trend. The industrial structure distortion index is the highest in the west, followed by the middle, and the lowest in the East. Secondly, the relationship between carbon emission intensity and economic development shows a "decoupling" effect and keeps decreasing year by year. The spatial disparity is remarkable, showing the pattern of "the east leading, the middle catching up and the west lagging ". At the provincial level, except in Xinjiang province, the carbon emission intensity of other provinces showed different degrees of decline. In terms of spatial distribution, the polarization characteristics of carbon emission intensity are significant, and the traditional spatial distribution pattern has been broken. Thirdly, there is a positive spatial correlation between China's industrial structure distortion, two-way FDI and carbon emission intensity. The distortion of industrial structure will not only lead to the increase of local carbon emission intensity but also produce reverse spillover to adjacent areas. IFDI and OFDI provide a strong driving force for the decline of carbon emission intensity. IFDI promotes the decline of carbon emission intensity in adjacent areas, while OFDI will increase the carbon emission intensity in surrounding areas. The interaction of IFDI and OFDI can significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of local and adjacent areas. Fourthly, the results of intermediary effect analysis show that two-way FDI is the two channels of industrial structure distortion affecting carbon emission intensity. Industrial structure distortion can affect the transmission mechanism of carbon emission intensity by affecting two-way FDI.
Tue, 14 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0202.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Machine Learning; Clusterization; Elbow Method; Prediction; Correlation Matrix; Principal Component Analysis; Binary and non-Binary regression models
Online: 14 June 2022 (09:54:46 CEST)
The following article presents an analysis of the determinants of diabetes using a dataset containing the surveys of 2000 patients from the Frankfurt Hospital in Germany. The data were analyzed using the following models, namely: Tobit, Probit, Logit, Multinomial Logit, OLS, WLS with heteroskedasticity. The results show that the presence of diabetes is positively associated with "Pregnancies", "Glucose", "BMI", "Diabetes Pedigree Function", "Age" and negatively associated with "Blood Pressure". A cluster analysis is realized using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method and three clusters were found. Finally a confrontation among eight different machine learning algorithms is realized to select the best performing algorithm to predict the probability of patients to develop diabetes.
Mon, 13 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0173.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Tarim river; ecological service function value; river ecosystem; evaluation indicators
Online: 13 June 2022 (09:33:56 CEST)
The estimation of ecological service system value of water resources in Tarim river basin is of great significance for resource allocation management and ecological protection. However, there is still no unified and complete evaluation method for ecological service system value of inland river in China. Based on the perspective of the whole value chain, the study classifies its ecological service functions, and divides 11 sub-categories into 4 categories (supply, regulation, culture and support) as evaluation indicators to carry out quantitative evaluation. The results showed that the total value of ecological service system in Tarim river basin in 2018 was 4156.5247×108 Yuan, and the value of regulating function, cultural function, supporting function and supply function were successively from high to low, which were as follows: 2565.6825×108 Yuan, 1009.5471×108 Yuan, 884.0770×108 Yuan, 20.3350×108 Yuan, among which the value of regulation function is dominant.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0169.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation, and invention: processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion processes; open innovation
Online: 13 June 2022 (05:21:48 CEST)
In the following article, the value of the "Knowledge Intensive Services Exports in Europe" in 36 European countries is estimated. The data were analyzed through a set of econometric models or: Poled OLS, Dynamic Panel, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS. The results show that “Knowledge Intensive Services Exports” is negatively associated, among others, with "Buyer Sophistication", "Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products", and positively associated with the following variables i.e. "Innovation Index", "Sales Impacts" and "Total Entrepreneurial Activity". Then a clusterization with k-Means algorithm was made with the Elbow method. The results show the presence of 3 clusters. A network analysis was later built and 4 complex network structures and three structures with simplified networks were detected. To predict the future trend of the variable, a comparison was made with eight different machine learning algorithms. The results show that prediction with Augmented Data-AD is more efficient than prediction with Original Data-AD with a reduction of the mean of statistical errors equal to 55,94%.
Mon, 6 June 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0067.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: COVID-19; nutritional intake; rural China; food consumption; food security
Online: 6 June 2022 (08:22:25 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic introduced risks and challenges to global food and nutrition security. In this paper, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nutritional intake of China's rural residents using panel data and a fixed effect model. The data were collected in 2019 and 2020 and covered nine provinces and 2,631 households in rural China. The results reveal that an increase of 100 confirmed cases in a county resulted in a 1.48% (p<0.01), 1.46% (p<0.01), 1.77% (p<0.01), and 1.23% (p<0.01) decrease in per capita intake of dietary energy, carbohydrates, fats, and proteins, respectively. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic only had a significant and negative effect on dietary energy intake in the low-income group at the 5% level of significance. Our study indicates that the potential insufficient nutrition situation, nutritional imbalance, and dietary imbalance of low-income rural residents should be addressed appropriately.
Mon, 23 May 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0283.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: energy policy; energy economics; renewable energy; fossil energy; nuclear energy; hybrid energy; teaching
Online: 23 May 2022 (03:33:09 CEST)
Issues related to safe and abundant energy production have been prominent in recent years. This is particularly tr ue when society considers how to increase the quality of life by providing low-cost energy to citizens. A significant concern of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relates to the environmental effects of energy production and energy use associated with climate change. Efforts to reduce fossil fuel use and increase the use of renewable energy, together with the price volatility of fossil fuels, have seriously impacted the economics of many of the oil-producing countries, particularly the Gulf States, which has led to efforts to make their economies more diverse and less dependent on oil production.
Thu, 19 May 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0263.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 19 May 2022 (15:25:11 CEST)
The following article indicates the determinants of “Internet User Skills” among European countries based on the application of the database deriving from the DESI-Index. The data were analyzed using the following econometric models, namely: Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS, WLS corrected for heteroskedasticity. The Elbow method and the Silouette coefficient method were compared for the optimization of the number of clusters obtained by the k-Means algorithm. The result shows the presence of 5 clusters. A network analysis was carried out using the Euclidean distance with the result of identifying two network structures between some analyzed countries. subsequently a comparison was made between six different machine learning algorithms for the prediction of the future value of the variable of interest. The result shows that the best predictor algorithm is Gradient Boosted Tree Regression with an expected value of the predicted variable increasing by a value of 1.75%. Later a further comparison was made by comparing 6 algorithms with the increased data. The result shows that the best predictor is Simple Regression Tree. The interest variable is predicted to decrease by an amount equal to -6.099%. Statistical errors improve on average by 32.43% in the transition between the original data and the increased data.
Wed, 18 May 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0240.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Credit constraints; Export; SMEs; Instrumental variable; Probit regression; Vietnam
Online: 18 May 2022 (10:35:32 CEST)
Export participation and restricted access to external formal credit are two factors attracting meticulous attention from researchers and policymakers, especially in developing countries. Exploring the interactive relationship of these factors in both the static and dynamic models is the purpose of this study. The study uses data sets from small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam for the period 2009 - 2015. The instrumental variable approach is implemented to deal with the endogenous variable problem in the model. The results show an effect of credit constraint on the firms’ exporting status, and continuous exports are likely to reduce the limit of credit constraint.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0235.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Bitcoin; economic policy uncertainty; spillover; wavelet coherence analysis; quantile cross-spectral dependence
Online: 18 May 2022 (03:15:25 CEST)
In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.
Fri, 6 May 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0065.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Complex networks; Minimum Dominating Set; Banking supervision; monitoring optimization
Online: 6 May 2022 (09:08:42 CEST)
The global financial crisis of 2008, triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, highlighted a banking system that was widely exposed to systemic risk. The minimization of the systemic risk via a close and detailed monitoring of the entire banking network became a priority. This is a complex and demanding task considering the size of the banking systems: in the US and the EU they include more than 10000 institutions. In this paper, we introduce a methodology which identifies a subset of banks that can: a) efficiently represent the behavior of the whole banking system and b) provide, in the case of a failure, a plausible range of the crisis dispersion. The proposed methodology can be used by the regulators as an auxiliary monitoring tool, to identify groups of banks that are potentially in distress and try to swiftly remedy their problems and minimize the propagation of the crisis by restricting contagion. This methodology is based on Graph Theory and more specifically Complex Networks. We termed this setting a “multivariate Threshold – Minimum Dominating Set” (mT–MDS) and it is an extension of the Threshold – Minimum Dominating Set methodology (Gogas e.a., 2016). The method was tested on a dataset of 570 U.S. banks: 429 solvent and 141 failed ones. The variables used to create the networks are: the total interest expense, the total interest income, the tier 1 (core) risk-based capital and the total assets. The empirical results reveal that the proposed methodology can be successfully employed as an auxiliary tool for the efficient supervision of a large banking network.
Mon, 25 April 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0216.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation and invention: processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion processes; open innovation
Online: 25 April 2022 (04:40:06 CEST)
The following article analyzes the determinants of the innovation index in Europe. The data refer to the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for the period between 2010 and 2019 for 36 countries. The data are analyzed using the following econometric techniques: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Dynamic Panel Data, Pooled OLS, WLS. The results show that the Innovation Index is negatively connected to some variables, among which the most significant are "GDP per capita", "R&D expenditure public sector", "Venture capital", "Tertiary education", and positively connected to some variables among which the most relevant are: "Government procurement of advanced technology products", "Average annual population growth", "Finance and support", "Human resources", "Marketing or organisational innovators", "Linkages". A clustering was then carried out using the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient which shows the presence of 2 clusters per value of the Innovation Index. Eight machine learning algorithms has been used for prediction with real data. The Tree Ensemble Regression algorithm has been chosen as best performer. A further prediction has been made with the augmented data. The result shows that the best performing algorithm is Linear Regression with an innovation index value predicted to grow by approximately 3.38%.
Mon, 11 April 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0094.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: FDI; Driscoll-Kraay fixed effect instrumental variable regression; IV-GMM; Spatial Durbin Model; Poverty; Institutional quality; Africa
Online: 11 April 2022 (10:58:49 CEST)
This study examines the spatial impact of FDI on the poverty of 44 African countries. In achieving this, the study uses the Driscoll-Kraay fixed effect instrumental variable regression, instrumental variable generalised method of moments estimator (IV-GMM), and the spatial durbin model. The empirical investigation of this study yielded four significant findings: (1) neighbouring countries’ FDI has a positive and significant impact on the incidence and intensity of host country’s poverty. (2) Improved institutional quality in neighbouring countries has a significant impact on FDI-poverty reduction nexus of the host country. (3) the empirical results lend support for a significant spatial spillover of poverty in the region. (4) the marginal effect results indicate that countries within the region are no longer in isolation or independent, i.e., the level of poverty in a particular country is influenced by its determinants in the neighbouring country. This result is robust to the alternative proximity matrix, which is the inverse distance. Since there is spatial interdependence among African countries, we recommend that African governments through the African Union (AU) should not only champion the institutional reform in the region, but also establish a binding mechanism to ensure reform implementation.
Fri, 25 March 2022
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0343.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: resilience; communication; systemic risk; systemic recovery
Online: 25 March 2022 (09:02:49 CET)
This work reviews three frameworks for responding to economic disruption: risk mitigation, systemic recovery, and economic resilience. Specifically, by reviewing extant literature in economics, communication, and other disciplines, we argue that current approaches to understanding resilience in economics largely fail to address ongoing and emergent disruptions to the economic and social world. In response to these issues, we work to synthesize economic frameworks and the communication theory of resilience to forward a new way of examining the overlapping questions of economic resilience related to metatheoretical commitments, analytic contexts, and implications for theory, method, and practice.
Tue, 15 March 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0218.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Migration; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; Inequality; Labor; Demographics; Human capital
Online: 15 March 2022 (14:29:19 CET)
International migration is closely tied to demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors and their interaction with migration policies. Using a combination of a gravity econometric model and an overlapping generations model, we estimate the probability of bilateral migration among 160 countries in the period of 1960 to 2000 and use these findings to project international migration flows and their implication for income inequality within and between countries in the 21st century under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our results show that international migration not only increases the welfare in developing countries, but also closes the inequality gap within and between low-skilled and high-skilled labor in these countries. In most developed countries on the contrary, international migration increases the inequality gap and slightly reduces output. These changes are not uniform and vary significantly across countries depending on their population growth and human capital development trajectories. Overall, while migration is strongly affected by inequality between developed and developing countries, it has an ambiguous impact on inequality within and between countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0207.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: revealed comparative advantage; network theory; interdependence; international trade; reciprocity; dependence
Online: 15 March 2022 (11:02:09 CET)
Since the 1970s, researchers in international relations have asserted that the enhancement of interdependence between nations can reduce conflicts among them (Keohane and Nye 1973). Thus, interdependency between nations is regarded as desirable for the stability of the countries' networks. On the other hand, there has been no confirmation of empirical data on the benevolent effects of interdependency on the nations' networks. This article aims to analyze the concept of interdependence into reciprocity and dependence, leading to quantifying both of them. To assess the usefulness of this approach, the empirical analysis of trade relations among five countries, namely, THE U.S.., China, Germany, Japan, and Korea from 1992 to 2020 was empirically analyzed with the aid of reciprocity index (R) and dependency index (D).
Tue, 8 March 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0115.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: tourism; islands; impact; economic development; sustainability
Online: 8 March 2022 (02:45:35 CET)
Tourism may not sustainably support territories with limited natural resource stock as islands. The volume in visitor arrivals and the industry investments can increase the pressure even beyond sustainable levels. There is an evident and unresolved tension between these two great polarities, sustainability and economic growth driven by tourism. The aim for policymakers is to find an acceptable equilibrium between these two dimensions. This paper investigates the tourism evolution between 2007 and 2019 in 15 Mediterranean islands, comparing the tourism pressures through statistical indicators. The analysis will compare tourism demand and supply trends in these contexts. The performances will be evaluated to identify the Islands positioning between sustainability needs and tourism development opportunities considering post-covid-19 challenges.
Mon, 7 March 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0088.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation, and invention: processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion processes; open innovation
Online: 7 March 2022 (04:17:02 CET)
The following article estimates the value of ICT Specialists in Europe between 2016 and 2021 for 28 European countries. The data were analyzed using the following econometric techniques, namely: Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS and Pooled OLS. The results show that the value of ICT Specialists in Europe is positively associated with the following variables: "Desi Index", "SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity", "At least 100 Mbps fixed BB take-up" and negatively associated with the following variables: "4G Coverage","5G Coverage", "5G Readiness", "Fixed broadband coverage", "e-Government", "At least Basic Digital Skills", "Fixed broadband take-up", "Broadband price index", "Integration of Digital Technology". Subsequently, two European clusters were found by value of "ICTG Specialists" using the k-Means clustering algorithm optimized by using the Silhouette coefficient. Finally, eight different machine learning algorithms were compared to predict the value of "ICT Specialists" in Europe. The results show that the best prediction algorithm is ANN-Artificial Neural Network with an estimated growth value of 12.53%. Finally, "augmented data" were obtained through the use of the ANN-Artificial Neural Network, through which a new prediction was made which estimated a growing value of the estimated variable equal to 3.18%.
Mon, 28 February 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0359.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation, and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 28 February 2022 (12:10:28 CET)
The following article analyzes the determinants of e-government in 28 European countries between 2016 and 2021. The DESI-Digital Economy and Society Index database was used. The econometric analysis involved the use of the Panel Data with Fixed Effects and Panel Data with Variable Effects methods. The results show that the value of “e-Government” is negatively associated with “Fast BB (NGA) coverage”, “Female ICT specialists”, “e-Invoices”, “Big data” and positively associated with “Open Data”, “e-Government Users”, “ICT for environmental sustainability”, “Artificial intelligence”, “Cloud”, “SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity”, “ICT Specialists”, “At least 1 Gbps take-up”, “At least 100 Mbps fixed BB take-up”, “Fixed Very High Capacity Network (VHCN) coverage”. A cluster analysis was carried out below using the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient with the identification of 4 clusters. Finally, a comparison was made between eight different machine learning algorithms using "augmented data". The most efficient algorithm in predicting the value of e-government both in the historical series and with augmented data is the ANN-Artificial Neural Network.
Fri, 18 February 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0226.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Diffusion Processes; Open Innovation
Online: 18 February 2022 (07:39:06 CET)
This article analyzes the determinants of the "Broadband Price Index" in Europe. The data used refer to 28 European countries between 2016 and 2021. The database used is the Digital, Economy and Society Index-DESI of the European Commission. The data were analyzed using the following econometric techniques, namely Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS and Dynamic Panel. The value of the "Broadband Price Index" is positively associated with the DESI Index, and "Connectivity" while it is negatively associated with "Fixed Broadband Take Up", "Fixed Broadband Coverage", "Mobile Broadband", "e-Government", "Advanced Skills and Development", "Integration of Digital Technology", "At Least Basic Digital Skills ", "Above Basic Digital Skills "," At Least Basic Software Skills ". A cluster analysis was carried out below using the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient. The analysis revealed the existence of three clusters. Finally, an analysis of the machine learning algorithms was carried out to predict the future value of the "Broadband Price Index". The result shows that the most useful algorithm for prediction is the Artificial Neural Network-ANN with an estimated value equal to an amount of 9.21%.
Thu, 17 February 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0217.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Cirrcular economy; freeshops; sharing economy; consumer behaviour
Online: 17 February 2022 (15:08:21 CET)
According to a number of authors, current social-economic and environmental problems require radical solutions, including the change of our approach to economy and looking for new models of its functioning. In Poland such trends are being recognised as well, having their reflection in the economic life. An approach described in this article concerns an intermediate sharing model, which may be placed between the most archetypical sharing, which is applied, among other, in family relationships, and sharing platforms that are raising growing controversies, such as UBER and Airbnb. The article uses the analysis of solutions applied in this regard in Poland and a survey carried out among students of the Faculty of Economics, University of Gdańsk, aimed at determining factors that affect changes in consumer behaviour.
Tue, 15 February 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0182.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: innovation and invention; processes and incentives; management of technological innovation and R&D; diffusion processes; open innovation
Online: 15 February 2022 (04:59:42 CET)
The determinants of the presence of “Foreign Doctorate Students” among 36 European Countries for the period 2010-2019 are analyzed in this article. Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Random Effects, WLS, Pooled OLS, and Dynamic Panel are used to investigate the data. We found that the presence of Foreign Doctorate Students is positively associated to “Attractive Research Systems”, “Finance and Support”, “Rule of Law”, “Sales Impacts”, “New Doctorate Graduates”, “Basic School Entrepreneurial Education and Training”, “Tertiary Education” and negatively associated to “Innovative Sales Share”, “Innovation Friendly Environment”, “Linkages”, “Trademark Applications”, “Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products”, “R&D Expenditure Public Sectors”. A cluster analysis was then carried out through the application of the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized using the Silhouette coefficient with the identification of 5 clusters. Finally, eight different machine learning algorithms were used to predict the value of the "Foreign Doctorate Students" variable. The results show that the best predictor algorithm is the "Tree Ensemble Regression" with a predicted value growing at a rate of 114.03%.
Wed, 9 February 2022
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0140.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Child nutrition; Religion; Ramadan fasting; In-utero exposure
Online: 9 February 2022 (16:00:34 CET)
In this study, we analyse if in-utero exposure to Ramadan fasting period is negatively associated with child nutrition? The data for the analyses come from a retrospective assessment of 924,198 children from 103 demographic and health surveys (DHS) across 56 countries during the period 2003-2020. Considering the month-long Ramadan exposure as a natural experiment, we implement an intent-to-treat framework, comparing outcomes among individuals who were exposed to Ramadan at any time in-utero to those who were not exposed. Our findings do not show significant evidence to conclude that in-utero exposure to Ramadan fasting period is negatively associated with child nutrition. On the contrary, except for stunting in children who had in-utero exposure to Ramadan during the first trimester, among Muslims, we find slightly better nutritional outcomes among children exposed in-utero to Ramadan period. The better nutritional outcomes among children exposed in-utero can be attributed to high nutritious food intake and better hygienic practices during holy months of Ramadan compared to usual months. Our main results are robust to multiple robustness checks.