AbstractTo overcome the negative impacts on the environment and other problems associated with fossil fuels have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Solar energy is one of the best renewable energy sources with the least negative impacts on the environment. Different countries have formulated solar energy policies to reduce dependence on fossil fuel and increasing domestic energy production by solar energy. According to the 2010 BP Statistical Energy Survey, the world cumulative installed solar energy capacity was 22928.9 MW in 2009, a change of 46.9% compared to 2008. In this study, a PV generation system has been modeled and installed considering uncertain whether based on the hourly wind speed data of New York City (NYC) of year 2014. Regression models has been used to forecast the hourly, weekly, and monthly wind speed of NYC year 2014. Design of experiment (DOE) has been used to determine the optimal panel size (area), the battery capacity size, and other levels of factors.

Modern countries generally deal with significant budget deficits and public debt. These countries need to rationalize their expenditures and increase revenue without major interference to economic flows. The aim of this paper is to create a model for forecasting public revenue and expenditure based on data from previous years. In the paper we formulated two hypotheses related to the validity of the set models. After detailed analysis, both hypotheses were accepted. The analysis includes all EU Member States and public revenue and expenditure data for the last decade. The significance of the analysis is reflected on the practical foundation of the pre-set theoretical views, which will have their basis in statistically significant results. By analyzing the model, we formulated the regression formulas of revenues and expenditures, which can be efficiently used in predicting these variables.

Partial least square (PLS) regression is a well-known chemometric method used for predictive modelling, especially in the presence of many variables. Although PLS was not initially developed as a technique for classification tasks, scientists have reportedly used this approach successfully for discrimination purposes. Whereas some non-supervised learning approaches including but not limited to PCA, and k-means clustering do well in identifying/understanding grouping and clustering patterns in multidimensional data, they are limited when the end target is discrimination, making PLS a preferable alternative. A total of fertilized 672 chicken egg hyperspectral imaging data, consisting of 336 white eggs and 336 brown eggs were used in this study. Hyperspectral images in the NIR region of 900-1700 nm wavelength range were captured prior to incubation on day 0 and on days 1-4 after incubation. Eggs were candled on incubation day 5 and broken out on day 10 to confirm fertility. While a total number of 312 and 314 eggs were found to be fertile in the brown and white egg batches respectively, total numbers of non-fertile eggs in the same set of batches were 23 and 21 respectively. Spectral information was extracted from a segmented region of interest (ROI) of each hyperspectral image and spectral transmission characteristics were obtained by averaging the spectral information. A moving-thresholding technique was implemented for discrimination based on PLS regression results on the calibration set. With true positive rates (TPR) of up to 100% obtained at selected threshold values of between 0.50-0.85 and on different days of incubation, the results indicated that the proposed PLS technique can accurately discriminate between fertile and non-fertile eggs. The adaptive PLS approach was thereby presented as suitable for handling hyperspectral imaging-based chicken egg fertility data

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been one of the leading causes of death and disability-adjusted life years lost worldwide. Blood pressure, lipid, and cholesterol are good predictors of CVD risk and correspond upon age and physical fitness. However, few studies have explored the variation trend of CVD risk factors across different populations upon age and their muscle strength. Objective: to analysis the variation tendency of CVD risk factors in blood according to age and relative grip strength among different populations. Method: 25363 participants were recruited in this cross-sectional study and 24709 were included in the analysis. A logistic regression and a Bayesian probabilistic analysis based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Modeling is conducted to build probability prediction models of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hypercholesterolemia according to age, relative grip strength, body weight conditions, and physical activity levels. Results: 1) age might be the main influence factor of hypertension, which is regarded as one of the primary CVD risk factors. However, although keeping a high level of physical activity might have positive effect on preventing hypertension because that individuals with normal body weight and higher physical activity shows a lower probability of being diagnosed with hypertension, it might could not prevent individuals from getting hypertension with age. 2) After 60, individuals of normal body weight seem more likely to have hyperlipidemia than those are overweight or obese. 3) Larger relative grip strength might not be able to offset the negative effects of obesity, overweight and physical inactivity on hyperlipidemia. 4) The probability of getting hypercholesterolemia varies less with age and relative grip strength. Conclusion: Body weight management and keeping high levels of physical activity are recommended at any age. It might benefit to increase some bodyweight after 60 years old.

Soil working tools, implements, and machines are inevitable in mechanized agriculture. The soil-tool/machine interaction is a multivariate, dynamic, and intricate process. The accurate interpretation, description, and modeling of a soil-machine interaction is key to providing a solution to sustainable crop production by reducing energy input, excessive soil pulverization, and compaction. The traditional method provides insight into soil-machine interaction but often provides inadequate solutions and lacks broad applicability. Computational intelligence (CI) is a comprehensive class of approaches that rely on approximate information to solve complex problems. The CI method has been extensively studied and applied in soil tillage and traction domain in recent decades. The study critically reviews the CI techniques implemented in soil-machine interactions, especially in the context of tillage, traction, and compaction. The traditional methods and their limitation are discussed. The fundamental of CI methods and a detailed overview of the most popular methods are provided. The study reviews and summarizes the 50 selected articles on soil-machine interaction studies where CI methods were employed. It discusses the strength and limitations of employed CI methods. It also suggests the emergent CI methods and future applications are discussed. The outlined study would serve as a concise reference and a quick and systematic way to understand the applicable CI methods that allow crucial farm management decision-making.

Far too often, one meets patients who went for years or even decades from doctor to doctor, without getting a valid diagnosis. This brings pain to millions of patients and their families, not to speak of the enormous costs. Often patients cannot tell precisely enough which factors (or combinations thereof) trigger their problems. If conventional methods fail, we propose the use of statistics and algebra to give doctors much more useful inputs from patients. We use statistical regression for independent triggering factors for medical problems, and “balanced incomplete block designs” for non-independent factors. These methods can supply doctors with much more valuable inputs, and can also detect combinations of multiple factors by incredibly few tests. In order to show that these methods do work, we briefly describe a case in which these methods helped to solve a 60 year old problem in a patient, and give some more examples where these methods might be very useful. As a conclusion, while regression is used in clinical medicine, it seems to be widely unknown in diagnosing. Statistics and algebra can save the health systems much money, and the patients also a lot of pain.

After the COVID-19 outbreak, more and more people are seeking physiological and psychological healing by visiting the forest as the time of stay-at-home became longer. NVOC, a major healing factor of forests, has several positive effects on human health, and this study researched about the NVOC characteristics of bamboo groves. The study revealed that α-pinene, 3-carene, and camphene were the most emitted, and the largest amount of NVOC was emitted in the early morning and late afternoon in bamboo groves. Furthermore, NVOC emission was found to have normal correlations with temperature and humidity, and inverse correlations with solar radiation, PAR and wind speed. A regression analysis conducted to predict the effect of microclimate factors on NVOC emissions resulted in a regression equation with 82.9% explanatory power and found that PAR, temperature, and humidity had a significant effect on NVOC emission prediction. In conclusion, this study investigated NVOC emission characteristics of bamboo groves, examined the relationship between NVOC emissions and microclimate factors and derived a prediction equation of NVOC emissions to figure out bamboo groves' forest healing effects. These results are expected to provide a basis for establishing more effective forest healing programs in bamboo groves.

COVID-19 is a potentially fatal viral infection. This study investigates geography, demography, socioeconomics, health conditions, hospital characteristics, and politics as potential explanatory variables for death rates at the state and county levels. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Census Bureau, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, Definitive Healthcare, and USAfacts.org were used to evaluate regression models. Yearly pneumonia and flu death rates (state level, 2014-2018) were evaluated as a function of the governors’ political party using repeated measures analysis. At the state and county level, spatial regression models were evaluated. At the county level, we discovered a statistically significant model that included geography, population density, racial and ethnic status, three health status variables along with a political factor. State level analysis identified health status, minority status, and the interaction between governors’ parties and health status as important variables. The political factor, however, did not appear in a subsequent analysis of 2014-2018 pneumonia and flu death rates. The pathogenesis of COVID-19 has greater and disproportionate effect within racial and ethnic minority groups, and the political influence on the reporting of COVID-19 mortality was statistically relevant at the county level and as an interaction term only at the state level.

Endothelial disorders are related to various diseases. An initial endothelial injury is characterized by endothelial glycocalyx injury. We aimed to evaluate endothelial glycocalyx injury by measuring serum syndecan-1 concentrations in patients during comprehensive medical examinations. A single-center, prospective, observational study was conducted at Asahi University Hospital. The participants enrolled in this study were 1313 patients who underwent comprehensive medical examinations at Asahi University Hospital from January 2018, to June 2018. One patient undergoing hemodialysis was excluded from the study. At enrollment, blood samples were obtained, and study personnel collected demographic and clinical data. No treatments or exposures were conducted except for standard medical examinations and blood sample collection. Laboratory data were obtained by collection of blood samples at the time of study enrolment. According to nonlinear regression, the concentrations of serum syndecan-1 were significantly related to age (p = 0.016), aspartic aminotransferase concentration (AST, p = 0.020), blood urea nitrogen concentration (BUN, p = 0.013), triglyceride concentration (p < 0.001), and hematocrit (p = 0.006). These relationships were independent associations. Endothelial glycocalyx injury, which is reflected by serum syndecan-1 concentrations, is related to age, hematocrit, AST concentration, BUN concentration, and triglyceride concentration.

The role of natural factors mainly solar eleven-year cycle variability, and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied for around last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in various time periods. Solar variability indicates a strong positive influence on NAO during 1978-1997, though suggests opposite in earlier period. Solar NAO lag relationship is also shown sensitive to the chosen times of reference and thus points towards the previously proposed mechanism/ relationship related to the sun and NAO. The ENSO is influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods. This study observes a strong negative association between the sun and ENSO before the 1950s, which is even opposite during the second half of 20th century. The period 1978-1997, when two strong eruptions coincided with active years of strong solar cycles, the ENSO, and volcano suggested a stronger association, and we discussed the important role played by ENSO. That period showed warming in central tropical Pacific while cooling in the North Atlantic with reference to the later period (1999-2017) and also from chosen earlier period. Here we show that the mean atmospheric state is important for understanding the connection between solar variability, the NAO and ENSO and associated mechanism. It presents a critical analysis to improve knowledge about major modes of variability and their role in climate. We also discussed the importance of detecting the robust signal of natural variability, mainly the sun.

This study analyses regional development in one of the poorest provinces in China, Guizhou Province, between 2000 and 2012 using a multiscale and multi-mechanism framework. In general, regional inequality has been declining since 2000. In addition, economic development in Guizhou Province presented spatial agglomeration and club convergence, which shows how the development pattern of one core area, two-wing areas and a contiguous area at the edge of the province have been developed between 2006 and 2012. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that industrialization and investment level were the primary driving forces of regional economic disparity in Guizhou Province. The influences of marketization and decentralization on regional economic disparity were relatively weak. Investment level reinforced regional economic disparity and the development of core-periphery structure in the province. However, investment level actually weakened the regional economic disparity in Guizhou Province when the variable of time was considered. In addition, both the topography and urban–rural differentiation were the two main reasons for forming a core-periphery structure in Guizhou Province.

The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

In recent years, there have been frequent reports on the adverse effects of synthetic cannabinoid (SC) abuse. SCs cause psychoactive effects, similar to those caused by marijuana, by binding and activating cannabinoid receptor 1 (CB1R) in the central nervous system. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model to correlate the structures and physicochemical properties of various SCs with their CB1R-binding affinities. We prepared 15 SCs and their derivatives (tetrahydrocannabinol [THC], naphthoylindoles, and cyclohexylphenols) and determined their binding affinity to CB1R, which is known as a dependence-related target. We calculated the molecular descriptors for dataset compounds using an R/CDK (R package integrated with CDK, version 3.5.0) toolkit to build QSAR regression models. These models were established and statistical evaluations were performed using the mlr and plsr packages in R software. The most reliable QSAR model was obtained from the partial least squares regression method via external validation. This model can be applied in vivo to predict the addictive properties of illicit new SCs. Using a limited number of dataset compounds and our own experimental activity data, we built a QSAR model for SCs with good predictability. This QSAR modeling approach provides a novel strategy for establishing an efficient tool to predict the abuse potential of various SCs and to control their illicit use.

Volatility estimation and quantile regression are relevant active research areas in statistics, machine learning and econometrics. In this work, we propose two procedures to estimate local variances in generic regression problems by using of kernel smoothers. The proposed schemes can be applied in multidimesional scenarios (not just for time series analysis) and easily in a multi-output framework, as well. Moreover, they allow the possibility of providing uncertainty estimation using a generic kernel smoother technique. Several numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed methods, even comparing with benchmark techniques. One of these experiment involves a real dataset analysis.

The aim of this research was to undertake laboratory testing to investigate the beneficial effects of epoxy resin grouts on the physical and mechanical properties of sands with a wide range of granulometric characteristics. Six sands, of different particle size and uniformity coefficients, were grouted using epoxy resin solutions with three ratios of epoxy resin to water (3.0, 2.0 and 1.5). A set of unconfined compressive strength tests were conducted on grouted samples at different curing periods and a set of long-term unconfined compressive creep tests in dry and wet conditions after 180 days of curing were also carried out, in order to evaluate the development of the mechanical properties of the sands, as well as, the impact of water on them. The findings of the investigation showed that epoxy resin resulted in appreciable strength values in the specimens, especially those of fine sands, grouted with the different epoxy resin grouts. In general, the compressive strength varied between 0.68 - 5.60 MPa and the modulus of elasticity between 75 - 480 MPa, after a curing period of 180 days. In terms of physical properties, the permeability and porosity (before and after the grouting process) were estimated. Grouts with an epoxy resin to water ratio of 3 decreased permeability by up to four orders of magnitude. Using laboratory results and regression analysis, three mathematical equations were developed that relate each of the dependent variables; compressive strength, elastic modulus, and coefficient of permeability, with particular explanatory variables.

The paper presents the relationship between the efficiency of the process of skin onion peeling and its effect in the form of waste. The research was carried out on a pilot test stand for onion peeling. The process variables were compressed air with a pressure of (p) and valve controlling opening time of flow (t). The experiment took into account the influence of the onion diameter (d0) and its hardness (H). The obtained results were subjected to statistical analysis. Standard deviations were of the percentage loss of onion mass in the form of the skin removed of onion peeling in the process in relation to obtained aver-age values. Tukey's multiple comparison test was performed in order to identify the importance of individual process variables on the final effect of onion peeling. This was the basis for the development of a predictive model in the form of a nonlinear regression Mp=f(p,t,d0,H), which is a mathematical description of the peeling onion skin process . Finally, the response surface area of relationship between analyzed variables was determined. The results of research showed the peeling efficiency of the onion and waste of skin mass depend on the compressed air pressure. Extending the onion blowing time does not improve the process efficiency, while the hardness and size of the onion are irrelevant to the process.

Background: Novel technologies like continuous glucose monitor (CGM) systems are improving diabetes management by means of real-time sensor glucose levels, retrospective course of glucose and trend arrows. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) offers real-time alerts for (prognostic) hypo- and hyperglycemia, fast dropping or increasing glucose, and hence improving glycaemia under unstable conditions like during meals, physical activity and exercise management. Complex CGM systems challenge people with diabetes and health care professionals in interpreting rapid changes, sensor delay (~10-minute difference between interstitial and plasma glucose), and malfunctions. Enhanced prediction models are necessary for optimal insulin dosing, daily activities, and especially for future fully closed-loop systems. Methods: The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of three different predictive models for glucose responses: 1) an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), 2) logistic regression, 3)and long short-term memory networks (LSTM), in predicting glucose levels after 15 minutes and one hour. We compared and evaluated the performance of these models in predicting hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL), euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL), and hyperglycemia (>180 mg/dL). In more detail, by assessing metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy, we specifically assessed which model provided the most accurate and reliable predictions for glucose levels Results: As expected, ARIMA showed the worst accuracy especially predicting hypoglycaemia withing 1-hour (7.3%). The accuracy of the logistic regression model, predicting hypoglycemia during the first 15 min was higher (98%), comparing to LSTM (88%). However, the LSTM model (87%) exceeded the accuracy of hypoglycemia prediction of the logistic regression (83%) during an hour prognosis. The same pattern observed in hyperglycemia - ARIMA model (60%, 1 hour), logistic regression (96%, 15 minutes) and LSTM (85%, 1 hour) Conclusions: These findings suggest that different models may have varying strengths and weaknesses in predicting glucose levels, and the choice of model should be carefully considered based on the specific requirements and context of the clinical application. The logistic regression model was more accurate for the next 15 minutes, especially predicting hypoglycemia. However, the LSTM model exceeded logistic regression for the next one hour prediction. Future research could explore hybrid models or ensemble approaches that combine the strengths of multiple models to further improve the accuracy and reliability of glucose predictions.

The development of artificial intelligence systems assumes that a machine can independently generate an algorithm of actions or a control system to solve the tasks. To do this, the machine must have a formal description of the problem and possess computational methods for solving it. The article deals with the problem of optimal control, which is the main task in the development of control systems, insofar as all systems being developed must be optimal from the point of view of a certain criterion. However, there are certain difficulties in implementing the resulting optimal control modes. The paper considers an extended formulation of the optimal control problem, which implies the creation of such systems that would have the necessary properties for its practical implementation. To solve it, an adaptive synthesized optimal control approach based on the use of numerical methods of machine learning is proposed. The method moves the control object, optimally changing the position of the stable equilibrium point in the presence of some initial position uncertainty. As a result, from all possible synthesized controls, he chooses one that is less sensitive to changes in the initial states. As an example, the optimal control problem of quadcopter with complex phase constraints is considered. To solve this problem? according to the proposed approach, the control synthesis problem is firstly solved to obtain a stable equilibrium point in the state space by a machine learning method of symbolic regression. After that optimal positions of the stable equilibrium point are searched according to source functional from the optimal control problem by particle swarm optimization algorithm. It is shown that such approach allows generating the control system automatically by computer basing on the formal statement of the problem and then directly implementing it onboard as far as they have already had a stabilization system inserted.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) technology has significantly advanced our understanding of the diversity of cells and how this diversity is implicated in diseases. Yet, translating these findings across various scRNA-seq datasets poses challenges due to technical variability and dataset-specific biases. To overcome this, we present a novel approach that employs both an LLM-based framework and explainable machine learning to facilitate generalization across single-cell datasets and identify gene signatures to capture disease-driven transcriptional changes. Our approach uses scBERT, which harnesses shared transcriptomic features among cell types to establish consistent cell-type annotations across multiple scRNA-seq datasets. Additionally, we employ a symbolic regression algorithm to pinpoint highly relevant yet minimally redundant models and features for inferring a cell type’s disease state based on its transcriptomic profile. We ascertain the versatility of these cell-specific gene signatures across datasets, showcasing their resilience as molecular markers to pinpoint and characterize disease-associated cell types. Validation is carried out using four publicly available scRNA-seq datasets from both healthy individuals and those suffering from ulcerative colitis (UC). This demonstrates our approach’s efficacy in bridging disparities specific to different datasets, fostering comparative analyses. Notably, the simplicity and symbolic nature of the retrieved gene signatures facilitate their interpretability, allowing us to elucidate underlying molecular disease mechanisms using these models.

We have developed additive logistic models for the occurrence of lightning, large (≥ 2 cm), and very large (≥ 5 cm) hail to investigate the evolution of these hazards in the past, in the future, and for forecasting applications. The models, trained with lightning observations, hail reports, and predictors from atmospheric reanalysis, assign an hourly probability to any location and time on a 0.25° × 0.25° × 1-hourly grid as a function of reanalysis-derived predictor parameters, selected following an ingredients- based approach. The resulting hail models outperform the Significant Hail Parameter and the simulated climatological spatial distributions and annual cycles of lightning and hail are consistent with observations from storm report databases, radar, and lightning detection data. As a corollary result, CAPE released above the -10°C isotherm was found to be a more universally skilful predictor for large hail than CAPE. In the period 1950–2021, the models applied to the ERA5 reanalysis indicate significant increases of lightning and hail across most of Europe, primarily due to rising low-level moisture. The strongest modelled hail increases occur in northern Italy with increasing rapidity after 2010. Here, very large hail has become 3 times more likely than it was in the 1950s. Across North America trends are comparatively small, apart from isolated significant increases in the direct lee of the Rocky Mountains and across the Canadian Plains. In the southern Plains, a period of enhanced storm activity occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.

The negative binomial regression model (NBRM) is a generalized linear model which relaxes the restrictive assumption by the Poisson regression model when the variance is equal to the mean. The estimation of the parameters of the NBRM is obtained using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Maximum likelihood estimator becomes unstable when the explanatory variables are linearly dependent, a situation known as multicollinearity. Based on this, we developed a new estimator called modified jackknifed Negative Binomial Kibria-Lukman (MJNBKL) estimator for the radiation of multicollinearity in NBRM using four different biasing (shrinkage) parameters. We establish superiority condition for MJNBKL estimator over the ones. The performance MJNBKL estimator was ascertained by comparing it with the existing ones through a Monte Carlo simulation study and two real life application datasets. The results of the simulation and real life application show that MJNBKL estimator outperformed the other estimators compared with by having the smallest MSE across all sample sizes and for different levels of correlation for the four biasing parameters used and the third biasing parameter is the optimal shrinkage parameter with the lowest MSE.

Background: Articles published in scholarly journals form part of the scientific evidence base. It is the responsibility of the scientific community to maintain its integrity. In 2011 the BMJ commissioned a feature article to draw attention to an article that had appeared in another journal- The Lancet 13 years previously. The Lancet had already retracted the article. These actions exemplify the best traditions of scientific record-keeping. Objective: This submission examines whether the main claims summary made in the BMJ were factual. Method: We examine what was published in the Lancet against what was published in the BMJ and verify against the findings in the GMC hearings transcripts and verdict of the UK High Court. Results: The 6 points highlighted in BMJ had errors and need to be corrected. Conclusions: There are significant differences between what was reported in the Lancet paper and what was alleged to be there by the BMJ. This article aims only to point to errors in the BMJ article, to set the record straight. It does not show there was a causal association between MMR vaccination and autism.

Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the UNICE data bank from 2000 to 2017, being 2017 the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -3.0% (95% CI -2.9;-3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South Africa region. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.

Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database from 1990-2015. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -2.6%. All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in East Africa. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in East Africa. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.

Background: Some developing countries, such as China, population is aging rapidly, meanwhile, the average years of schooling for residents is constantly increasing. However, the question of whether adult children’s education has an effect on the longevity of older parents, remains inadequately studied. Methods: This paper uses China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) data to estimate the causal impact of adult children's education on their parents' longevity. Identification is achieved by using the truncated regression model and using historical education data as instrument variables for adult children’s education. Results: For every unit increase in adult children’s education, the father’s and mother’s longevity increased by 0.89 years and 0.75 years, respectively. Mechanism analysis shows that adult children's education has a significant positive impact on parents' emotional support, financial support and self-reported health. Further evidence shows that for every unit increase in adult children’s education, the father-in-law’s and mother-in-law’s longevity increased by 0.40 years and 0.46 years, respectively. Conclusions: It is conclusion that improving the level of adult children’s education can increase parents’ and parents-in-law’s longevity. Adult children’s education might contribute to the longevity of older parents by three channels that providing emotional, economic support and affecting parents’ health.

Human ether-a-go-go-related gene (hERG) potassium channel is well-known contributor to drug-induced cardiotoxicity and therefore an extremely important target when performing safety assessments of drug candidates. Ligand-based approaches in connection with quantitative structure active relationships (QSAR) analyses have been developed to predict hERG toxicity. Availability of the recent published cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) structure for the hERG channel opened the prospect for using structure-based simulation and docking approaches for hERG drug liability predictions. In recent time, the idea of combining structure- and ligand-based approaches for modeling hERG drug liability has gained momentum offering improvements in predictability when compared to ligand-based QSAR practices alone. The present article demonstrates uniting the structure-based SILCS (site-identification by ligand competitive saturation) approach in conjunction with physicochemical properties to develop predictive models for hERG blockade. This combination leads to improved model predictability based on Pearson’s R and percent correct (represents rank-ordering of ligands) metric for different validation sets of hERG blockers involving diverse chemical scaffold and wide range of pIC50 values. The inclusion of the SILCS structure-based approach allows determination of the hERG region to which compounds bind and the contribution of different chemical moieties in the compounds to blockade, thereby facilitating the rational ligand design to minimize hERG liability.

Export participation and restricted access to external formal credit are two factors attracting meticulous attention from researchers and policymakers, especially in developing countries. Exploring the interactive relationship of these factors in both the static and dynamic models is the purpose of this study. The study uses data sets from small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam for the period 2009 - 2015. The instrumental variable approach is implemented to deal with the endogenous variable problem in the model. The results show an effect of credit constraint on the firms’ exporting status, and continuous exports are likely to reduce the limit of credit constraint.

Digitalisation provides access to an integrated network of information that can benefit society, and business. Building digital network and society using digital means can create something unique opportunities to strategically address sustainable development challenges for the United Nations Targets (SDG) to ensure higher productivity, education and to equality oriented society. This point of view describes the potential of digitalisation for society and business of the future. The authors revise the links between digitalisation and sustainability in the European Union countries. The methodology for the research is suggested in the paper and linear regression method is applied. The results showed tiers with five SDG, focusing on society and business, and all these tiers are fixed in the constructed equations for each SDG. The suggested solution is statistically valid and proves the novelty of research. Among digitalisation indicators, only mobile-cellular subscriptions and fixed-broadband sub-basket prices in part have no effect on researched sustainable development indicators.

Obesity has become a rising global health problem affecting adults’ quality of life. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of obesity in Indonesian adults based on the cluster of islands. The study was also aimed to identify the risk factors of obesity in each island cluster. This study analysed secondary data of Indonesian Basic Health Research 2018. Our data for analysis comprised 688,638 adults (>=15 years) randomly selected using proportionate to population size throughout Indonesia. We included 20 variables for sociodemographic and obesity-related risk factors for analysis. Obese status was defined using Body Mass Index (BMI) >= 27.5 kg/m2. Our current study defined seven major islands cluster as the unit analysis consisting of 34 provinces in Indonesia. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the characteristics of the population and to calculate the prevalence of obesity within provinces in each of the island’s clusters. Multivariate logistic regression analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) was performed using R version 3.6.3. The study results showed that all island clusters had at least one province with an obesity prevalence of more than 20%. Six out of twenty variables, comprising four diet factors (consumption of sweet food, high-salt food, meat food, and carbonated drinks) and two other factors (mental health disorders and smoking behaviour), varied across the island clusters. In conclusion, there was a variation of obesity prevalence of the provinces within and between island clusters. Variation of risk factors raised in each cluster island suggested the government rethink and reframe the intervention to address obesity.

This paper will discuss the application of statistic modeling to interpret a health system crisis in Sri Lanka due to COVID- 19.A strong focus on the preventive approach and the contact tracing with the utilization of available resources in a rational manner describes Sri Lanka’s response towards COVID- 19 prevention and mitigation. The early contact tracing, preemptive quarantining, isolation, and treatment were implemented as a concerted effort. This approach, proven efficient during the early phase of the pandemic, was sustainable when there was a rapid increase in the COVID- 19 patients since July 2021, exceeding the health system capacity.The country’s COVID- 19 situation during the period from 01st of August 2021 to 31st of October 2021 was taken into consideration. Variables used for analysis were; total number of cases, recovered cases, comorbid and O₂ dependent patients, ICU patients, and deaths. The regression model was applied to analyze the data by using the EViews 12 (x64) software application.The correlation coefficients of all the independent variables under consideration implies that they have a strong positive relationship with the number of deaths occurred during the said period. According to the computed multiple linear regression model, the number of positive cases and O₂ dependents have a positive relationship with the dependent variable. Further, the Durbin- Watson stat value of the model and multicollinearity test reflect that it is free from serial correlation thereby the model is fit. From the perspective of epidemiological control, these findings highlight the importance of keeping the number of cases within the limits of health system capacity.

Despite extensively investigating the impact of social media on fashion products’ marketing, little evidence is available on how the platforms influence sales prediction. Focusing on Lolita fashion, this study investigates the impact of social media marketing on the sales volume prediction of fashion products. Essentially, we analyzed marketing data, including comments, likes, and shares from the Weibo social platform, to forecast future sales, examine how to enhance profit performance, and make production decisions. Using a quantitative approach, we tested three different prediction models, including multiple regression, decision tree, and XGBoost. The results revealed that increasing comments and decreasing the number of likes could significantly improve the sales volumes of Lolita products. In contrast, shares exerted a less significant impact on sales. Regarding prediction models, XGBoost was found to be the best method. In the fashion industry, social media is a useful tool for forecasting market trend. A limitation of this study is that only one social media platform was used to extract data, which might limit the generalization of the findings.

Meta-analysis has increasingly been used to synthesize the ecosystem services literature, with some testing of the use of such analyses to transfer benefits. These are typically based on local primary studies. However, meta-analyses associated with ecosystem services are a potentially powerful tool for transferring benefits, especially for environmental assets for which no primary studies are available. In this study we use the Ecosystem Service Valuation Database (ESVD), which brings together 1350 value estimates from more than 320 studies around the world, to estimate meta-regression functions for provisioning, regulating &amp; maintenance and cultural ecosystem services across 12 biomes. We tested the reliability of these meta-regression functions and found that even using variables with high explanatory power, transfer errors could still be large. We show that meta-analytic transfer performs better than simple value transfer and, in addition, that local meta-analytical transfer (i.e. based on local explanatory variable values) provides more reliable estimates than global meta-analytical transfer (i.e. based on mean global explanatory variable values). Thus, we conclude that when taking into account the characteristics of the study area under analysis, including explanatory variables such as income, population density and protection status, we can determine the value of ecosystem services with greater accuracy.

This paper explores the effect of climate change on the regression of the Argan tree (Argania spinosa L. Skeels) woodland, focusing on the Argan Biosphere Reserve and especially in the Souss plain (Western Morocco). Rainfall and temperature data of four sites within the Argan Biosphere Reserve were analyzed over the last 60 years to assess any climatic change. Regression curves applied to the dataset showed an important decrease in rainfall (18 to 26 %) in the four locations as well as an increase in temperature (1 to 2 °C). These changes may have a detrimental effect on the Argan woodland although human factors have been reported to be the main factor of its regression. It can therefore be concluded that the reduction in rainfall and the increase in temperature should now be considered as factors of Argan woodland regression.

This paper uses the complex regression analysis method to establish the customer’s load regression models, which consider economic indicators, temperature and rainfall. Furthermore, the proposed models are used to study the forecasting feasibility of the future energy sales and summer peak load demand. At first, this paper used least-squares techniques to derive regression models for considering economic indicators and temperature of 34 customer energy sales and total energy sales. Besides, the AMI high voltage customer demand data and system generating capacity for 24 hours were adopted to forecast summer peak load. The above-mentioned data analysis tool is used by EViews software to achieve, in order to verify the feasibility of the research framework. The study found that although its forecasting model accuracy is low only when mixed with temperature and high voltage demands. So, when mixed with high voltage demand data and system generating capacity for 24 hours to forecast peak load, the average error is ± 0.87% and in the majority of its energy sales forecasting model of average error is ±3%. This result can provide power company as future reference.

Legacy mining industry has left a large number of tailings ponds exposed to water and wind erosion that causes serious environmental and health problems. Prior to rehabilitation actions a deep sampling of the materials infilling the pond used to be necessary. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of the Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) method as a non-invasive tool to determine the physicochemical composition of mine tailings ponds, enabling more efficient and low-cost surveys. To achieve this objective, three ERT profiles and three boreholes in each profile were carried out, from each borehole three waste samples from differents depths were collected and a geochemical characterization of the samples was carried. In order to estimate the composition of the infilling wastes in tailing ponds from electrical resistivity measures, several regression models were calculated for different physicochemical properties and metal concentrations. As a result, a high resistivity area was depicted in profiles G2 and G3 while a non-resistive area (profile G1) was also found. Relationships among low resistivity values and high salinity, clay content and high metal concentrations and mobility were established. Specifically, calibrated models were obtained for electrical conductivity, particles sizes of 0.02-50 µm and 50-2000 µm, total Zn and Cd concentration, and bioavailable Ni, Cd and Fe. Therefore, the ERT technique could be considered as a useful tool for mine tailings ponds characterization, and it can be used to estmate some physicochemical properties and metal concentrations of this mine waste.

The New Zealand housing sector is experiencing rapid growth that boosts the national economy but also results in the loss of valuable resources. In line with the growth, the housing market for both residential and business purposes has been booming, as have house prices. To sustain the housing development, it is critical to accurately monitor and predict housing prices so as to support the decision-making process in housing sector. This study is devoted to applying a mathematical method to predict housing prices. The forecasting performance of two types of models: ARIMA and multiple linear regression analysis are compared. The ARIMA and regression models are developed based on a training-validation sample method. The results show that the ARIMA model generally performs better than the regression model. However, the regression model explores, to some extent, the significant correlations between house prices in New Zealand and the macro-economic conditions.

The development and application of marine current energy are attracting more and more attention around the world. Due to the hardness of its working environment, it is important and difficult to study the fault diagnosis of a marine current generation system. In this paper, an underwater image is chosen as the fault-diagnosing signal, after different sensors are compared. This paper proposes a diagnosis method based on the sparse autoencoder (SA) and softmax regression (SR). The SA is used to extract the features and SR is used to classify them. Images are used to monitor whether the blade is attached by benthos and to determine its corresponding degree of attachment. Compared with other methods, the experiment results show that the proposed method can diagnose the blade attachment with higher accuracy.

Introduction Pharmacovigilance may detect safety issues after marketing of medications, and this can result in regulatory action such as direct healthcare professional communications (DHPC). DHPC can be effective in changing prescribing behaviour, however the extent to which prescribers vary in their response to DHPC is unknown. This study aims to explore changes in prescribing and prescribing variation among GP practices following a DHPC on the safety of mirabegron, a medication to treat overactive bladder (OAB). Methods This is an interrupted time series study of English GP practices from 2014-2017. NHS Digital provided monthly statistics on aggregate practice-level prescribing and practice characteristics (practice staff and registered patient profiles, Quality & Outcomes Framework indicators, and deprivation of the practice area). The primary outcome was monthly mirabegron items as a percentage of all OAB drug items. The exposure was a DHPC issued by the European Medicines Agency in September 2015. Variation between practices in mirabegron prescribing before and after the DHPC was assessed using the systematic component of variation (SCV). Multilevel segmented regression with random effects quantified the change in level and trend of prescribing after the DHPC. Practice characteristics were assessed for their association with a reduction in prescribing following the DHPC. Results This study included 7,408 practices. During September 2015, 88.9% of practices prescribed mirabegron and mirabegron composed a mean of 8.2% (SD 6.8) of OAB items. Variation between practices was classified as very high and the median SCV did not change significantly (p=0.11) in the 6 months after the September 2015 DHPC (12.4) compared to before (11.6). Before the DHPC, there was a monthly trend of 0.294 (95%CI, 0.287, 0.301) percentage points increase in mirabegron percentage. There was no significant change in the month immediately after the DHPC (-0.023, 95% CI -0.105 to 0.058) however there was a significant reduction in trend (-0.036, 95% CI -0.049 to -0.023). Higher numbers of registered patients and patients aged ≥65 years, and practice area deprivation were associated with having a significant decrease in level and slope of mirabegron prescribing post-DHPC. Conclusion Variation in mirabegron prescribing was high over the study period and did not change substantively following the DHPC. There was no immediate prescribing change post-DHPC, although the monthly growth did slow. Knowledge of the degree of variation in and determinants of response to safety communications may allow those that do not change prescribing to be provided with additional supports.

We propose a novel credit risk measurement model for Corporate Default Swap spreads, that combines vector autoregressive regression with correlation networks. We focus on the sovereign CDS spreads of a collection of countries, that can be regarded as idiosyncratic measures of credit risk. We model them by means of a vector autoregressive regression model, composed by a time dependent country specific component, and by a contemporaneous component that describes contagion effects among countries. To disentangle the two components, we employ correlation networks, derived from the correlation matrix between the reduced form residuals. The proposed model is applied to ten countries that are representative of the recent financial crisis: top borrowing/lending countries, and peripheral European countries. The empirical findings show that the proposed model is a good predictor of CDS spreads movements, and that the contemporaneous component decreases prediction errors with respect to a simpler autoregressive model. From an applied viewpoint, core countries appear to import risk, as contagion increases their CDS spread, whereas peripheral countries appear as exporters of risk. Greece is an unfortunate exception, as its spreads seem to increase for both idiosyncratic factors and contagion effects.

The relationship between economic growth, growth volatility and financial sector development continues to attract attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. Over time, some studies hypothesize that finance has a causal linear relationship with growth. Recently several other authors contradict this claim and argue that the relationship that exists between finance and growth is nonlinear. We investigate these claims for Nigeria for the period between 1970 and 2015, using semi-parametric econometric methods, Hansen sample splitting techniques and threshold estimator. We observed no evidence of ‘Too much finance’ as claimed by many researchers in recent times. We show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is U-shaped. This is equally true for the relationship between financial development and growth volatility. We also discuss policy implications of our findings and recommend financial innovations and decentralization of stock exchanges to boost access to financial services, in addition, improved regulation to enhance financial market efficiency.

Ship speeds extracted from AIS data vary with ice conditions. We extrapolated this variation with SAR data to a chart of expected icegoing speed. The study is for the Gulf of Bothnia in March 2013 and for ships with ice class 1A Super that are able to navigate without icbreaker assistance. The speed was normalized to 0-10 for each ship. As the matching between AIS and SAR was complicated by ice drift during the time gap, from hours to two days, we calculated a set of local SAR statistics over several scales. We used random tree regression to estimate the speed. The accuracy was quantified by mean squared error (MSE), and the fraction of estimates close to the actual speeds. These depended strongly on the route and the day. MSE varied from 0.4 to 2.7 units² for daily routes. 65 % of the estimates deviated less than one unit and 82 % less than 1.5 units from the AIS speeds. The estimated daily mean speeds were close to the observations. Largest speed decreases were provided by the estimator in a dampened form or not at all. This improved when ice chart thickness was included as one predictor.

Linear regression is a basic tool in mobile robotics, since it enables accurate estimation of straight lines from range-bearing scans or in digital images, which is a prerequisite for reliable data association and sensor fusing in the context of feature-based SLAM. This paper discusses, extends and compares existing algorithms for line fitting applicable also in case of strong covariances between the coordinates at each single data point, which must not be neglected if range-bearing sensors are used. Besides, particularly the determination of the covariance matrix is considered, which is required for stochastic modeling. The main contribution is a new error model of straight lines in closed form for calculating fast and reliably the covariance matrix dependent on just a few comprehensible and easily obtainable parameters. The model can be applied widely in any case when a line is fitted from a number of distinct points also without a-priori knowledge of the specific measurement noise. By means of extensive simulations the performance and robustness of the new model in comparison to existing approaches is shown.

Good data analysis is required for the optimal design of water resources projects. However, data are not regularly collected due to material or technical reasons, which results in incomplete-data problems. Available data and data length are of great importance to solve those problems. Various studies have been conducted on missing data treatment. This study used data from the flow observation stations on Yeşilırmak River in Turkey. In the first part of the study, models were generated and compared in order to complete missing data using ANFIS, multiple regression and Normal Ratio Method. In the second part of the study, the minimum number of data required for ANFIS models was determined using the optimum ANFIS model. Of all methods compared in this study, ANFIS models yielded the most accurate results. A 10-year training set was also found to be sufficient as a data set.

Nonlinear nonparametric statistics (NNS) algorithm offers new tools for curve fitting. A relationship between k-means clustering and NNS regression points is explored with graphics showing a perfect fit in the limit. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate NNS as a form of unsupervised learning, and supply a proof of its limit condition. The procedural similarity NNS shares with vector quantization is also documented, along with identical outputs for NNS and a k nearest neighbours classification algorithm under a specific NNS setting. Fisher's iris data and artificial data are used. Even though a perfect fit should obviously be reserved for instances of high signal to noise ratios, NNS permits greater flexibility by offering a large spectrum of possible fits from linear to perfect.

Land degradation is a serious impediment to improving rural livelihoods in Eastern Africa. This paper identifies major land degradation patterns and causes, and analyzes the determinants of sustainable land management (SLM) in three countries (Ethiopia, Malawi and Tanzania). The results show that land degradation hotspots cover about 51%, 41%, 23% and 23% of the terrestrial areas in Tanzania, Malawi and Ethiopia respectively. The analysis of nationally representative household surveys shows that the key drivers of SLM in these countries are biophysical, demographic, regional and socio-economic determinants. Secure land tenure, access to extension services and market access are some of the determinants incentivizing SLM adoption. The implications of this study are that policies and strategies that facilities secure land tenure and access to SLM information are likely to incentivize investments in SLM. Local institutions providing credit services, inputs such as seed and fertilizers, and extension services must also not be ignored in the development policies.

As argued by ‘Declaration of Concrete Environment (2010)’ of Korea and ‘Declaration of Asian Concrete Environment (2011)’ of six Asian countries, concrete as a single material has lately shown extremely large impact on environmental issues such as climate change. Assessment of environmental impact from concrete material and production has considerable importance. Concrete is a major material used in the construction industry that emits a large amount of substances with environmental impacts during its life cycle. Accordingly, technologies for the reduction in and assessment of the environmental impact of concrete from the perspective of Life Cycle Assessment must be developed. At present, the studies in relation to greenhouse gas emission from concrete are being carried out globally as a countermeasure against climate change. In this study, a sustainable concrete mix design algorithm was designed using correlation analyses, and its carbon emission and cost reduction performances were assessed. Using correlation analyses, the concrete strength, w/b and s/a ratios, and CO₂ emissions were identified as major variables of concrete mix design that influenced other variables. Also, this study aims to evaluate the CO₂ emission reduction performance of the algorithm-deduced sustainable concrete mix design, and therefore, the CO₂ emissions of the sustainable concrete mix design are compared with those of the actual concrete mix design applied to the construction of the office building A in South Korea.

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative condition caused by repeated traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) leading to cognitive, behavioral, and motor dysfunctions. This study examined the relationship between cognitive impairment and clinical syndromes among 145 CTE patients aged 18 to 75 years who underwent inpatient treatment at the Ternopil Regional Clinical Psychoneurological Hospital between 2021 and 2022. Cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), with results classified into four categories: normal, mild impairment, moderate impairment, and dementia. Statistical analysis revealed significant associations between cognitive impairment and specific neuroimaging changes, including ventricular dilatation. Clinical syndromes, such as cognitive disorder syndrome, also showed significant associations with cognitive impairment (p &lt; 0.001). Using logistic regression, we developed a predictive model to estimate the probability of cognitive impairment based on various clinical features, including memory loss, attention deficits, and sleep disturbances. The model demonstrated high accuracy, with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showing a sensitivity of 91.0% and a specificity of 92.5%, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.964 (95% CI: 0.934 - 0.994). These findings suggest that specific neuroimaging and clinical features can predict cognitive impairment in CTE patients.

China is experiencing rapid urbanization. The focus on health issues has shifted from the treatment of diseases to passive or active prevention. Diseases caused by the deterioration of the urban environment, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity and other chronic diseases and mental illness, have gradually become the main threat to public health. Studies have confirmed that urban green spaces (UGS) can help residents relieve mental stress, improve mood, reduce mental fatigue and restore attention, which has a positive effect on people's physical and mental health. In this study, the relationship between the quantity and quality factors of UGS and the physical and mental health of urban residents in Xihu District of Hangzhou is examined, and on this basis, UGS design strategies are proposed to promote the physical and mental health of residents. This study is of great significance for the future construction of UGS that are beneficial to the health of residents and the promotion of a healthy China and healthy city construction.

Globally, road traffic collisions cause over a million deaths annually, with pedestrians accounting for nearly one-quarter (23%) of these fatalities. This casualty proportion highlights the critical importance of adhering to traffic regulations. This study analyzes the factors influencing driver yielding behavior at midblock crosswalk improvements, comparing (1) a typical zebra crossing (C1) and (2) an intelligent signalized crosswalk (C2). The study used video-based observational data to investigate driver behaviors and factors influencing driver behaviors. The study applied multinomial logistic regression to formulate yielding behavior models. The results indicate that the number of traffic lanes, width of the traffic lanes, width and length of the crosswalk, vulnerable group, the number of pedestrian crossings, pedestrian crossing time, the number of vehicles approaching a crosswalk, speed of vehicle, headway, the post-encroachment time (PET) between vehicles and pedestrian, and roadside parking are the significant factors influence yielding behavior. These findings provide a better understanding of the factors influencing driver yielding behavior and propose measures to set proper physical improvements (e.g., curb extensions, raised pedestrian platforms, and pedestrian fencing), enforcement (e.g., parking restriction, speed violation detection), public awareness campaigns, and education initiatives.

Online teaching is considered an important approach for achieving sustainable learning and education, and college teachers’ attitude and behavioral intention are essential for the sustainable adoption of online teaching practice in higher education institutions. To examine the influencing factors that sustain teachers’ attitude toward online teaching and behavioral intention, we conducted a cross-sectional study based on a sample of 1,102 college teachers in central China, using hierarchical linear regression analysis to explore possible influencing factors in four levels: individual experience, environmental support, self-perception, and technology acceptance. The study results show that the subjective norms, readiness, beliefs, and perceived usefulness of online teaching had a significant impact on teachers’ attitude toward online teaching and behavioral intention. Nevertheless, the effect varied with factors like online-teaching load and teachers’ technology self-efficacy, as their influence seemed to be singular, affecting the teachers’ attitude toward online teaching or behavioral intention exclusively. In contrast, previous online-teaching experience did not notably affect either. The findings of this study reveal the complex interactions of factors that influence college teachers’ disposition toward and decisions about online-teaching practices and emphasize the need for targeted strategies to maintain and enhance online education in the post-pandemic era.

Our study clarified what is the same or not between Tier 1(Tokyo) and Tier 2(Kansai) metropolitan areas on shrinking cities problems. Both of metropolitan areas will dramatically decrease the Housing Asset Value (HAV) where areas of bedroom communities are located. On the other hand, compared to Tokyo, Kansai has been hit by decline at a faster pace. This raises the question of whether Kansai will be more or less impoverished by the deflation of the HAV. According to our results, Kansai municipalities should expect the HAV losses of 38% by 2045, but the HAV losses would be higher in the northern suburbs of Osaka. Kansai has to face the effects of the HAV deflation faster than Tokyo. But Tokyo has a neck of higher residential land price, the income multiplier of the HAV per household is about 4. The HAV deflation hits more severe problems for elderly households in Tokyo. Considering our study, Tier 2 metropolitan area is much faster effects of the HAV deflation, but Tier 1 metropolitan area has more serious social problem than Tier 2. Hence, there are different problems of different natures rather than which one is more severely affected by the deflation of the HAV.

The strong competition in the automotive industry has required manufacturers to implement lean production, both with methods and techniques specific to Industry 4.0. At the same time, universities must provide graduates with specific skills for applying these new production methods and techniques. In this context, a Lean Learning Factory was developed in the Pitesti University Center, which allows students to learn, experiment, and research, in an environment similar to that of enterprises, the new Lean Manufacturing methods and techniques, and Industry 4.0. The research presented in this study had as its objective identifying the minimum number of repetitions necessary to train operators who serve two differently organized workstations, one classic, the other including digital techniques, but on which the same assembly operation is performed. Several indicators were considered in the analysis, such as the number of errors, the number of stops, the effective duration of the work cycle, and the percentage ratio between the standard duration of cyclical activities and the effective duration of the work cycle. The evolution of these indicators was mathematically modelled by regression functions, using the least squares method. The obtained results also highlight the usefulness of applying the DOJO method as a Lean manufacturing-specific learning technique and the efficiency of implementing digital techniques in work organization.

Different severe energy crises episodes occurred in the world in the last five decades. Energy crises lead to deterioration of international relations, economic crises, changes in monetary systems and social problems in countries. This paper aims to show the essential determinants of energy crises by developing a binary logit model which estimates the predictive ability of thirteen indicators in a sample that covers the period from January 1973 to December 2022. The empirical results show that the energy crises are mainly due to energy supply-demand imbalances (petroleum stocks, fossil energy production-consumption imbalance and changes in energy imports by country groups), energy investments (oil and natural gas drilling activities), economic and financial disruptions (inflation, dollar index, index of global real economic activity) and geopolitical risks. Additionally, the model is capable of accurately predicting the world energy crisis event months with 99% probability.

This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth in the context of a panel kink regression with latent group structures. The proposed model allows us to explore the heterogeneous threshold effects of public debt on economic growth based on unknown group patterns. We propose a least squares estimator and demonstrate the consistency of estimating group structures. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is evaluated by simulations. Our findings reveal that the nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by a heterogeneous threshold level, which varies among different groups, and highlight that the mixed results found in previous studies may stem from the assumption of a homogeneous threshold effect.

Shared micromobility has gained significant attention in the field of transportation engineering in recent years as an environmentally friendly, convenient, and easily accessible transportation mode. Like other medium-sized cities, Birmingham, Alabama implemented a shared micromobility pilot program in 2021 that captured the attention of local travelers. This study examined shared e-scooter usage and associated travel patterns in Birmingham using 2021-2022 field data. From these data, ArcGIS maps were used to showcase trip origins and destinations. To gain a further understanding of e-scooter travel patterns in the study area, zip code and block group densities were calculated. Additionally, a negative binomial regression model was constructed to identify determinants of shared e-scooter trips. The analysis results showed that the usage of shared e-scooters was the highest during the nighttime, on weekends, and in the fall season. Furthermore, the research findings indicated that shared e-scooters experienced their highest utilization rates in areas with a higher proportion of educated and higher-income individuals. These findings suggest that travelers’ mode choice related to the use of micromobility modes is influenced by environmental and demographic factors. Overall, this case study offers valuable contributions to the understanding of the role of shared e-scooters in Birmingham's transportation landscape and can guide transportation authorities in other medium-sized cities in their efforts to plan for micromobility options.

Milk MIR spectra have been shown to provide valuable information on a wide range of traits to be used in dairy cattle breeding programs. Selecting the most informative variables from complex data can improve prediction accuracy and model robustness and, consequently, the interpretability of MIR spectra. Thus, we aimed to investigate the prediction performance of feature selection methods based on MIR spectra data, using the milk fatty acid (FA) profile as an example to illustrate the evaluated procedure. Data of MIR spectra, milk test-day records, and reference FA concentrations of 155 first-parity Holstein cows were used in the analyses. Four models comprising different explanatory variables and five feature selection methods were evaluated. The results indicated that the Competitive Adaptive Reweighted Sampling (CARS) method can effectively select the most informative variables from the MIR spectra, resulting in higher prediction accuracies than other variable selection approaches. The model including selected MIR spectra and cow information variables [days in milk at the test day, age at the test day, pregnancy stage (in days), number of days open, number of inseminations, and somatic cell count] yielded the best FA profile predictions based on Partial Least Square regression. In particular, ten FAs (C8:0, C10:0, C14:1, C17:0 isomers, C18:1, C18:1 isomer, medium-chain FA, unsaturation FA, monounsaturated FA, and polyunsaturated FA) presented accuracies based on the determination coefficient (R2cv) ranging from 0.66 to 0.85 in internal validation and from 0.65 to 0.84 in external validation. By running CARS 1,000 times in internal validations, we obtained the frequency of selected milk MIR wavenumber for 35 FAs. The most related wavenumbers to FAs were found within 1,003 to 1,145 cm-1, while other discrete areas were between 1,651 to 1,797 and 2,834 to 2,954 cm-1. These biomarkers may give insights into the relationship between MIR spectra and FA phenotypes. In conclusion, using CARS and cow information improved predictions of FAs based on MIR spectra in Chinese Holstein dairy cows. Additional validation studies should be conducted as larger datasets become available.

In the current situation, the world is busy with technological advances, including Indonesia. Since its arrival, many business fields have competed with each other to take part as technology users. One business sector that cannot be separated from technological support is cooperatives. On the other hand, some cooperatives in the developing phase experience technological lag. At the same time, East Kutai Regency, which is the agricultural center in East Kalimantan Province, tends to rely on the cooperative sector to encourage small and medium-scale economies. This research aims to investigate the causality between access to computers (AC), internet networks (IN), digital administration skills (DAS), and financial literacy (FL) on profits (PFT). The objectivity of the study compares agricultural cooperatives that adopt technology with adopt non-technology. Using panel data regression from eighteen sub-districts in East Kutai, it is proven that technology adopting agricultural cooperatives were more prominent than non-technology adopting agricultural cooperatives during 2017–2022. However, there is a harmony in the statistical findings from both observations, where access to computers and financial literacy both have a significant effect on profits. Other analysis results show that internet networks and digital administration skills have an insignificant impact on profits. The study's implications provide valuable output for the future sustainability of agricultural cooperatives. The success of agricultural cooperatives depends greatly on the effectiveness of the application of technology.

For a fiber optic gyroscope, thermal deformation of the fiber coil can introduce additional ther-mal-induced phase errors, commonly referred to as thermal errors. Thermal error compensation techniques are effective means of addressing this issue. The principle behind these techniques involves real-time sensing of thermal errors and correcting them within the output signal. Since it is challenging to directly separate thermal errors from the output signal of the fiber optic gyro-scope, it is necessary to predict thermal errors based on temperature. To establish a mathematical model between temperature and thermal errors, this paper measured synchronized data of phase errors and angular velocity for the fiber coil under different temperature conditions and aimed to model it using data-driven methods. Due to the difficulty of conducting tests and the limited number of data samples, an algorithm called TD-model modeling is proposed to address the issue of overfitting, which can reduce the model's generalization ability. First, a theoretical analysis of the phase errors caused by thermal deformation of the fiber coil is performed. Subsequently, the critical parameters, such as the thermal expansion coefficient, are determined, and a theoretical model is established. Finally, the theoretical analysis model is incorporated as a regularization term and combined with the test data to jointly participate in the regression of model coefficients. Through experimental comparative analysis, it is shown that, relative to ordinary regression models, the TD-model effectively mitigates overfitting caused by the limited number of samples, leading to a 58% improvement in predictive accuracy.

The aim of this study was to use latent profile analysis to identify specific profiles of burnout syndrome in combination with work engagement and to identify whether job satisfaction, psychological well-being, and other sociodemographic and work variables affect the probability of presenting a profile of burnout syndrome and low work enthusiasm. A total of 355 healthcare professionals completed the Spanish Burnout Inventory, the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, the Job Satisfaction Scale, and the Psychological Well-Being Scale for Adults. Latent profile analysis identified 4 profiles: 1) burnout with high indolence (BwHIn); 2) burnout with low indolence (BwLIn); 3) high engagement, low burnout (HeLb); and 4) in the process of burning out (IPB). Multivariate logistic regression showed that a second job in a government health care institution; a shift other than the morning shift; being divorced, separated or widowed; and work load are predictors of burnout profiles with respect to the HeLb profile. These data are useful for designing intervention strategies according to the needs and characteristics of each type of burnout profile.

Backgrounds Linear association has widely been assumed for prediction of aging-related fractional anisotropy (FA) decline in white matter of the brain. While useful for testing significance of the aging effect, it fails to identify a threshold age before and after which the age-FA association changes. Identification of such a threshold is often of clinical interest for timely intervention. Methods We employed a sigmoidal growth function to test a threshold effect in age triggering onset of cerebral decline in 21 white matter tracts, and compared its fitting performance to those of linear, and power regression. The study sample was a normal healthy cohort of 106 participants with ages in mid-life ranging from 18 to 60 years. Results Of the 21 white matter tracts analyzed, the posterior thalamic radiation showed better fit with sigmoidal curve model, compared to a linear or power regression. The estimated threshold age in years (95% confidence interval) were 47.2 (44.1-48.4). Conclusion While available evidence regarding the presence of a specific age threshold for cerebral decline in mid-life based on FA was limited, the posterior thalamic radiation exhibited a threshold age of 47.2. Beyond this age point, we observed a significant change in the FA risk pattern.

Youth is the essential entrepreneurial force for every country's social, political, and economic development. Urban youth make up about 34.27 percent of the population in Ethiopia. The youth unemployment crisis is one of the serious challenges that Ethiopia is facing nowadays, and it should be mentioned in the nation's public discourse. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to specify the socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence urban youth unemployment in the Somali Regional State, specifically in Jigjiga, Degahbour, Kebridahar, Gode, and Dollo Ado towns. Both primary and secondary data sources were employed. A multi-stage sampling technique has been used to select 385 sample respondents from the total population of the study. This study found that almost 63% of youth in the study area were unemployed, and a large number of unemployed youths live in Jigjiga and Dollo Ado Towns as compared to other city administrations. The econometric model's findings indicate that factors like gender, education level, work experience, access to credit, access to information, time applied for job vacancy, active job seeker, social network (network with clan elders, government officials, businessmen, and other friends), and residence in Jigjiga and Gode town have a significant association with the likelihood of youth unemployment in the Somali regional state. Therefore, this study recommends that the regional government and local city administration should develop effective policies and strategies to address the underlying causes of gender inequality, improving access and quality of education, supporting freshman graduates to find jobs, providing access to credit and job vacancies, ensuring fair and free job competition, and managing youth migration for job seeking.

Machine learning methods have been a standard approach to select features that are associated with an outcome and build a prediction model when the number of candidate features is large. LASSO has been one of the most popular approaches to this end. LASSO approach selects features with large regression estimates, rather than based on statistical significance, associating the outcome, by imposing L1-norm penalty to overcome the high dimensionality of the candidate features. As a result, LASSO may select insignificant features while possibly missing significant ones. Furthermore, from our experience, LASSO has been found to select too many features. By selecting features that are not associated with the outcome, we may have to spend more cost to collect and manage them in the future use of a fitted prediction model. Using the combination of L1- and L2-norm penalties, elastic net (EN) tends to select more features than LASSO. The overly selected features that are not associated with the outcome act like white noise, so that the fitted prediction model loses the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose to use the standard regression methods (without any penalizing approach) with stepwise variable selection procedure to overcome these issues. Unlike LASSO and EN, this method selects features based on statistical significance. Through extensive simulations, we show that this maximum likelihood estimation based method selects very small number of features while maintaining a high prediction power, while LASSO and EN make a large number of false selections to result in loss of prediction accuracy. Contrary to LASSO and EN, the regression methods combined with a stepwise variable selection method is a standard statistical method, so that any biostatistician can use it to analyze high dimensional data even without advanced bioinformatics knowledge.

Gastric cancer is among the top 5 causes of cancer-related death worldwide. Preoperative chemotherapy has been established as an option in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer. However, chemotherapy yields variable results, owing to the cellular and molecular heterogeneity of this disease. Identifying patients who did or did not respond to preoperative therapy can allow clinicians to alter treatment modalities and provide important information related to prognostication. Pathologic response to preoperative therapies, called Tumor Response Grade (TRG), has been evaluated to quantify treatment response. Multiple systems for TRG have been established. However, literature has demonstrated inconsistent results for TGR systems and prognosis, possibly due to variability in interpretation of tumor response between systems and interobserver variability. Radiographic response to preoperative therapies using RECIST 1.1 criteria and endoscopically-assessed tumor response have demonstrated association with survival; however their use in gastric cancer remains challenging given the inability to accurately and consistently identify and measure the tumor, especially in the setting of neoadjuvant therapy where treatment-related changes can obscure the gastric wall layers. This review is focused on summarizing the available literature related to evaluating TRG in gastric cancer, as well as providing a brief overview on the use of radiographic and endoscopic methods to assess response to preoperative therapies. Lastly, we outline future directions regarding the use of a universal TRG system to guide care and assist with prognosis.

(1) Background: With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) fo-cusing on reducing maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) in regions like Africa become crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, in-ternational organizations, and NGOs. (2) Methods: We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Join Point regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMR for the next 15 years. (3) Results: The study found a decline in MMR in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 65 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 249 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa., averaging 197 per 100,000 births for the continent. (4) Conclusions: Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, only North and South Africa will likely reach the SDG target.

The safety of a pedestrian crossing may depend on infrastructure, vehicular and pedestrian traffic characteristics. This research portrays the safety challenges caused by vehicles on crosswalk in the City of Kigali. Through observing the stopping of drivers in pedestrian crossing events, the study aims to evaluate driver’s behaviors against traffic flow parameters. 10 collection sites were finally selected purposively and randomly to suit observations for data recording. A total of 10,259 crossing events were recorded within 280 hours. Statistical analysis, tests and Binary logistic regression model were used to evaluate the behaviors. Sadly,82.4% drivers violate crosswalks, endangering crossing. Motorcyclists exhibit the most aggressive behavior. Car drivers are relatively less aggressive,60% managed to brake in the events. Buses and bicycles share a negligible collective of 2%, being aggressive and would not stop. Cars are 10.389 times more likely to stop compared to bicycles. Having more vehicles in a row is safer to cross, for each unit increase on the vehicle density scale, there were 1.956 more chances that every driver would stop.13% to 21% of traffic variables predict the variance in stopping behaviors model.

Infection of liver flukes (Opisthorchis viverrini) is partly due to their suitability for habitats in sub-basin areas, which causes the intermediate host to remain in the watershed system in all seasons. Spatial monitoring of fluke infection at the small -basin analysis scale is important because this can enable analysis at the level of the spatial factors involved and influencing infections. A geographic weighted regression model was developed to analyze the spatial characteristics of liver fluke infection, aiming to 1. analyze the spatial factors associated with human liver fluke infection according to sub-basin boundaries and 2. generate an alternative model for enhancing the effectiveness of preventive public health management to reduce the risk of liver fluke infection in humans. The number of infected persons was obtained from local authorities and converted into a percentage of infected people and generated as raster data with a heat map so that the data were continuous and defined as dependent variables. The independent set consisted of nine variables, both vector and raster data, that correlated the location with the village location of an infected person. The results showed that the variables X5stream, X7ndmi, and X9savi were statistically significantly correlated to the percentage of infected people, with the t-stat and p-value being (-2.068, 1.875, and -2.661) and (0.048, 0.034, and 0.021), respectively. The GWR model was able to increase accuracy more than the comparable models such as OLS, in all tests of the four alternative models, with an accuracy increase in R2 of 7.69% (0.576 to 0.624). This study confirms that the development of spatial models with GWR models can screen for factors associated with liver fluke infection at the level of small spatial units such as sub-basins.

Wellness is a multidimensional concept that touches upon the various physical, mental, emotional, spiritual, social and environmental facets of health. Interest towards and importance of wellness have been growing constantly for the past two decades and thus makes it crucial to understand which factors affect public engagement with wellness information for multiple stakeholders. The Instagram account of New York Times (NYT) specifically for sharing wellness content with the handle nyt_well was selected as the object of study. 773 posts from this account between March of 2019 and December of 2022 were collected and analyzed to answer the research question of which factors are most influential to public engagement with wellness content. Two negative binomial regressions were run on features including the type of post, length, word count, sentiment score and topic with number of likes and comments as the dependent variables for each of those regression models. Results indicated that the type of post and its sentiment score were the two most influential determinants of public engagement with p-values smaller than 0.05. While the effects of some of these factors aligned with findings from previous studies conducted on social media content not related to wellness (e.g., marketing), some others affected the two separate public engagement metrics in opposite directions, warranting future studies to investigate further on the cause of this phenomenon.

The purpose of the study is to empirically analyze the effect of quality of governance on tax revenue in South Africa. This is done by analyzing a time series dataset covering 1996 to 2020. The study used voice and accountability, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, control of corruption, political stability and rule of law as proxies of quality of governance. Multiple regression analysis was performed to test hypotheses. Based on the regression results, all quality of governance variables in South Africa have a negative effect on tax revenue except corruption control. The findings of this study also include policy recommendations. The government of South Africa must design and implement effective ways to combat poor governance, which results in a tax revenue shortfall.

Vagueira Beach on the Central Portuguese coast, is known as one of the places in Europe most affected by coastal erosion. The area has suffered more than 156 meters of coastline retreat over the period 1958 to 2001. With the aim to evaluate the influence of local factors on coastal erosion, this paper assesses the anthropogenic and natural factors that are related with the retreat of the coastline, by adopting statistical correlation and regression analyses. Through the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) it was observed that local factors such as annual dredging at the Aveiro Port entrance (r = 0.93), the total length of groins in the Espinho-Vagueira section (r = 0.89), and storm events (r = 0.52) are directly related to coastline retreat in the area. A multiple linear regression model was developed in which coastline retreat is explained by these same factors over the period 1980 to 2006. With a coefficient of determination of R² = 0.91, it was observed that length of groins (significant at the 1% level), dredging of the port entrance (significant at the 5% level) and precipitation (as a proxy for storm events; significant at the 10% level) are significantly correlated with coastline retreat. Hence, it is shown that anthropogenic factors are the main drivers of coastline retreat in Vagueira Beach. This study provides an innovative approach for the assessment of coastal erosion, resulting in important information that can be used for decision-making related to coastal zone management as it allows to understand in greater detail the main drivers of coastal erosion.

Recent maritime legislations demand the transformation of the sector to greener and more energy efficient transportation. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) seems a promising alternative fuel solution that could replace the conventional fuel sources. Various studies have been focused on the prediction of LNG price, however, no previous work has been made on the forecast of spot charter rate of LNG carrier ships. An important knowledge for the maritime industries and companies when it comes to decision-making. Therefore, this study is focused on the development of a machine learning pipeline to address the aforementioned problem by: (i) forming a dataset with variables relevant to LNG; (ii) identifying the variables that impact on the freight price of LNG carrier; (iii) developing and evaluating regression models for short and mid-term forecast. The results showed that the General Regression Neural Network presented a stable overall performance for 2, 4 and 6 months forecast.

The authors have revised the circularity of materials, which is important to stimulate circular activity processes. The theoretical part starts with describing the characteristics of the circular activity and the comparison of circular and linear systems in terms of recycling. Later on, the authors examined key elements important for the circularity and the results of an examination of various sectors. The authors formed a correlation matrix and used a dynamic regression model to identify the circular material use rate. The authors suggested a three-level methodology, using it provided a dynamic regression model which could be applied for forecasting the size of circular material use rate in European Union countries. The results show that private investments into recycling and the recycling of electronic waste and the recycling of other municipal waste categories are important in seeking to increase the usage rate of circular materials.

Tropical cyclones devastate large areas, take numerous lives and damage extensive property in Bangladesh. Research on landfalling tropical cyclones affecting Bangladesh has primarily focused on events occurring since AD1960 with limited work examining earlier historical records. We rectify this gap by developing a new tornado catalogue that include present and past records of tornados across Bangladesh maximizing use of available sources. Within this new tornado database, 119 records were captured starting from 1838 till 2020 causing 8,735 deaths and 97,868 injuries leaving more than 1,02,776 people affected in total. Moreover, using this new tornado data, we developed an end-to-end system that allows a user to explore and analyze the full range of tornado data on multiple scenarios. The user of this new system can select a date range or search a particular location, and then, all the tornado information along with Artificial Intelligence (AI) based insights within that selected scope would be dynamically presented in a range of devices including iOS, Android, and Windows. Using a set of interactive maps, charts, graphs, and visualizations the user would have a comprehensive understanding of the historical records of Tornados, Cyclones and associated landfalls with detailed data distributions and statistics.

The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that affect the mortality among adult HIV/TB co-infected patients and to see the nutritional difference among mortality in residence level. Retrospective cohort studies of 417 patients which fulfill our criteria were included. Multilevel logistic regression models were used. MLwiN and SPSS software are used to estimate the parameter. The variance of the random factor in the empty model was significant which indicates that there were residential differences in TB-HIV co-infected mortality and it shows multilevel analysis was an appropriate approach for further analysis. The prevalence of HIV/TB co-infected patients' death was 12.9% in study time. Functional status, age of patients, WHO clinical stages, nutritional status, CD4 counts, regimen, and BMI were found to be significant determinants of HIV/TB co-infected mortality. In our study, patients with the bedridden category of functional status, the fourth stages of WHO clinical stages (stage IV), patients with higher age, patients whose treatments were second-line regimen and low CD4 cell counts were more at risk of death. The study also revealed that; poor nutritional status increased the risk of mortality among HIV/TB co-infected patients and it varies among the residence of the patients (rural area were more at risk).

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear not later than two to three weeks after the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. For 17 out of 22 countries (77%) the changepoint came on average 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship

Previous studies have mostly examined how sustainable cities try to promote non-motorized travel by creating a walking-friendly environment. Such existing studies provide little research that identifies how the built environment affects pedestrian volume in high-density areas. This paper presents a methodology that combines person correlation analysis, stepwise regression, and principal component analysis for exploring the internal correlation and potential impact of built environment variables. To study this relationship, cross-sectional data in the Melbourne central business district were selected. Pearson’s correlation coefficient confirmed that visible green index and intersection density were not correlated to pedestrian volume. The results from stepwise regression showed that land-use mix degree, public transit stop density, and employment density could be associated with pedestrian volume. Moreover, two principal components were extracted by factor analysis. The result of the first component yielded an internal correlation where land-use and amenities components were positively associated with the pedestrian volume. Component 2 presents parking facilities density, which negatively relates to the pedestrian volume. Based on the results, existing street problems and policy recommendations were put forward to suggest diversifying community service within walking distance, improving the service level of the public transit system, and restricting on-street parking in Melbourne.

Neither tumor growth nor regression is truly spontaneous, but both may under special circumstances be driven by similar events. We describe a sequence of processes that typically leads to tumor progression but may on occasion inadvertently result in regression. A possible procedure for reducing tumor mass through a controlled intervention is also outlined.

Acrylamide is probably carcinogenic to humans (International Agency for Research on Cancer, group 2A) with major occurrence in heated, mainly carbohydrate-rich foods. For roasted coffee, a European Union benchmark level of 400 µg/kg acrylamide is of importance. Regularly, the acrylamide contents are controlled using liquid chromatography combined with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). This reference method is reliable and precise but laborious because of the necessary sample clean-up procedure and instrument requirements. This research investigates the possibility of predicting the acrylamide content from proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra that are already recorded for other purposes of coffee control. In the NMR spectrum acrylamide is not directly quantifiable, so that the aim was to establish a correlation between the reference value and the corresponding NMR spectrum by means of a partial least squares (PLS) regression. Therefore, 40 commercially available coffee samples with already available LC-MS/MS data and NMR spectra were used as calibration data. To test the accuracy and robustness of the model and its limitations, 50 coffee samples with extreme roasting degrees and blends were additionally prepared as test set. The PLS model shows an applicability for the varieties C. arabica and C. canephora, which were medium to very dark roasted using drum or infrared roasters. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) is 79 µg/kg acrylamide (n=32). The PLS model is judged as suitable to predict the acrylamide values of commercially available coffee samples. On the other hand, very light roasts containing more than 1000 µg/kg acrylamide are currently not suitable for PLS prediction.

Land degradation is a critical issue globally putting our future generations at risk. The decrease in farm productivity over the years is evidence of land degradation severity in Nepal. Among the many strategies in place, agroforestry, which is an integrated tree-based farming, is widely recommended to address this productivity issue. This paper thoroughly examines what influences the choice of agroforestry adoption by farmers and what discourages the adoption. For this, a total of 288 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. Two agroforestry practices were compared with conventional agriculture with the help of the Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL) model. The likelihood of adoption was found to be influenced by gender; the male-headed households were more likely to adopt the tree-based farming practice. Having a source of off-farm income was positively associated with the adoption decision of farmers. Area of farmland was found being the major constraint to agroforestry adoption for smallholder farmers. Some other variables that affected positively included livestock herd size, provision of extension service, home-to- forest distance, farmers’ group membership and awareness of farmers about environmental benefits of agroforestry. Irrigation was another adoption constraint that the study area farmers were faced with. The households with means of transport and with larger family (household) size were found to be reluctant towards agroforestry adoption. A collective farming practice could be a strategy to engage the smallholder farmers in agroforestry.

Deep coal beds have been suggested as possible usable underground geological locations for carbon dioxide storage. Furthermore, injecting carbon dioxide into coal beds can improve the methane recovery. Due to importance of this issue, a novel investigation has been done on adsorption of carbon dioxide on various types of coal seam. This study has proposed four types of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approaches with different kernel functions to estimate excess adsorption of carbon dioxide in terms of temperature, pressure and composition of coal seams. The comparison of GPR outputs and actual excess adsorption expresses that proposed models have interesting accuracy and also the Exponential GPR approach has better performance than other ones. For this structure, R2=1, MRE=0.01542, MSE=0, RMSE=0.00019 and STD=0.00014 have been determined. Additionally, the impacts of effective parameters on excess adsorption capacity have been studied for the first time in literature. According to these results, the present work has valuable and useful tools for petroleum and chemical engineers who dealing with enhancement of recovery and environment protection.

The parameters of logistic regression models are usually obtained by the method of maximum likelihood (ML). However, in analyses of small data sets or data sets with unbalanced outcomes or exposures, ML parameter estimates may not exist. This situation has been termed “separation” as the two outcome groups are separated by the values of a covariate or a linear combination of covariates. To overcome the problem of non-existing ML parameter estimates, applying Firth’s correction (FC) was proposed. In practice, however, a principal investigator might be advised to “bring more data” in order to solve a separation issue. We illustrate the problem by means of an examples from colorectal cancer screening and ornithology. It is unclear if such an increasing sample size (ISS) strategy that keeps sampling new observations until separation is removed improves estimation compared to applying FC to the original data set. We performed an extensive simulation study where the main focus was to estimate the cost-adjusted relative efficiency of ML combined with ISS compared to FC. FC yielded reasonably small root mean squared errors and proved to be the more efficient estimator. Given our findings, we propose not to adapt the sample size when separation is encountered but to use FC as the default method of analysis whenever the number of observations or outcome events is critically low.

Abstract: The air pollution dispersion modelling via spatial analyses (Land Use Regression – LUR) is an alternative approach to the air quality assessment to the standard air pollution dispersion modelling techniques. Its advantages are mainly much simpler mathematical apparatus, quicker and simpler calculations and a possibility to incorporate other factors affecting pollutant’s concentration. The goal of the study was to model the PM10 particles dispersion modelling via spatial analyses v in Czech-Polish border area of Upper Silesian industrial agglomeration and compare results with results of the standard Gaussian dispersion model SYMOS’97. Results show that standard Gaussian model with the same data as the LUR model gives better results (determination coefficient 71% for Gaussian model to 48% for LUR model). When factors of the land cover and were included into the LUR model, the LUR model results were significantly improved (65% determination coefficient) to the level comparable with Gaussian model. The hybrid approach combining the Gaussian model with the LUR gives superior quality of results (65% determination coefficient).

Regression models form the core of the discipline of econometrics. One of the basic assumptions of classical linear regression model is that the values of the explanatory variables are fixed in repeated sampling. However, in most of the real life cases, particularly in economics the assumption of fixed regressors is not always tenable. Under a non-experimental or uncontrolled environment, the dependent variable is often under the influence of explanatory variables that are stochastic in nature. There is a huge literature related to stochastic regressors in various aspects. In this paper, a historical perspective on some of the works related to stochastic regressor is being tried to pen down based on literature search.

In this paper, we use the Principal Components Logistic Regression as a technique to reduce the variables being used in Credit Scoring Modeling. Specifically, we construct two models in which greek enterprises are classified, through their credit behavior and we evaluate them, relying on real data. In general, we propose a general way to use PC Regression, in case that we have high correlations and categorical variables in the sample.

A variable annuity is a popular life insurance product that comes with financial guarantees. Using Monte Carlo simulation to value a large variable annuity portfolio is extremely time-consuming. Metamodeling approaches have been proposed in the literature to speed up the valuation process. In metamodeling, a metamodel is first fitted to a small number of variable annuity contracts and then used to predict the values of all other contracts. However, metamodels that have been investigated in the literature are sophisticated predictive models. In this paper, we investigate the use of linear regression models with interaction effects for the valuation of large variable annuity portfolios. Our numerical results show that linear regression models with interactions are able to produce accurate predictions and can be useful additions to the toolbox of metamodels that insurance companies can use to speed up the valuation of large VA portfolios.

Scientific studies had shown that mixed forests of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) provide higher ecosystem services than monospecific forests. Mixed forests are known for their high resilience to climate change impacts and superior biodiversity compared to monospecific forests. In many countries, promotion of mixed forests in forest management is becoming a government policy since they can contribute to fulfill the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nation, respectively Goal 13 and 15. However, not much is known about public perceptions on mixed forests compared to monoculture forests. Our study on ecosystem services provided by mixed and monospecific forests in southwest Germany fill this gap. Based on a survey with 520 valid responses we analyzed people’s perception on 18 different supporting, cultural, regulating and provisioning ecosystem services measured by Likert scale. Stepwise regression analyses show relations between social profiles (gender, age, education, profession) and preferences on respondents’ perceptions. Our findings show that people perceive that mixed forests provide better cultural, regulating and supporting ecosystem services than monospecific forests of fir and beech whereas provisioning services were perceived as being equally or better provided by monospecific forests. Significant effects towards a positive perception on ecosystem services provided by mixed forests were mainly influenced by the perceived abundance of old trees, feeling of pleasantness in mixed forests, age, profession, and education. Our findings indicate that there is a high public support for the promotion of silver fir and beech mixed forests in Southwest Germany.

The aim of this study has been to develop a novel two-level multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize time series forecasting data for fans used in road tunnels by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). Level 1 is for the process of forecasting time series cost data, while level 2 evaluates the forecasting. Level 1 implements either a multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model or a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. Level 2 utilises a multi-objective GA based on different forecasting error rates to identify a proper forecasting. Our method is compared with using the ARIMA model only. The results show the drawbacks of time series forecasting using only the ARIMA model. In addition, the results of the two-level model show the drawbacks of forecasting using a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. A multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model produces better forecasting results. In level 2, five forecasting accuracy functions help in selecting the best forecasting. Selecting a proper methodology for forecasting is based on the averages of the forecasted data, the historical data, the actual data and the polynomial trends. The forecasted data can be used for life cycle cost (LCC) analysis.

This paper proposes a new non-radial biennial Luenberger energy and environmental performance index (EEPI) to measure the EEP change in various Chinese cities. The sources of EEP change, in terms of technical efficiency change and technological change, are examined by Luenberger EEPI. The contributions from specific undesirable outputs and energy inputs to the EEP change are identified by means of the non-radial efficiency measure. The proposed approach is applied to evaluate the EEP of the industrial sector in 283 cities in China over 2010-2014. Factors influencing the emission abatement potential are investigated by employing geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. We find that 1) changes in EEP can be attributed to technological progress but that technological progress slows down across the study period; 2) the soot emission performance experiences a downtrend among four specific sub-performances in line with the truth that severe haze happened frequently in China; 3) the best performers begin to move from the coastal to inland cities with the less resource consumption and higher ecological equality; 4) cities with the strongest positive effect in regards to pollution intensity on emission abatement potential are located in the areas around the Bohai Gulf, where air pollution is particularly severe.

The aim of this paper is to analyze and evaluate Renewable Energy Sources (RES) usage and their contribution to citizens’ life quality. For this purpose, a survey was conducted, using a sample of 400 residents in an urban area of Attica region in Greece. The methods of Principal Components Analysis and Logit Regression were used on a dataset containing respondents’ views on various aspects of RES. Two statistical models were constructed for the identification of the main variables that are associated with RES’ usage and respondents’ opinion on their contribution to life quality. The conclusions that can be drawn show that the respondents are adequately informed about some of the RES’ types while most of them use at least one of the examined types of RES. The benefits that RES offer, were the most crucial variable in determining both respondents’ perceptions on their usage and on their contribution to life quality.

The severity of forest fires derived from remote sensing data for research and management has become increasingly widespread in the last decade, where these data typically quantify the pre- and post-fire spectral change between satellite images on multi-spectral sensors. However, there is an active discussion about which of the main indices (dNBR, RdNBR or RBR) is the most adequate to estimate the severity of the fire, as well about the adjustment model used in the classification of severity levels. This study proposes and evaluates a new technique for mapping severity as an alternative to regression models, based on the use of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) automatic learning algorithm, from GeoCBI field data and spectral indices dNBR, RdNBR and RBR applied to Landsat TM, ETM+ Images, for two fires in central Spain. We compare the severity discrimination capability on dNBR, RdNBR and RBR, through a spectral separability index (M) and then evaluated the concordance of these metrics with field data based on GeoCBI measurements. Specifically, we evaluated the correspondence (R²) between each metric and the continuous measurement of fire severity (GeoCBI) and the general precision of the regression and MLE models, for the four categorized levels of severity (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High). The results show that the RBR has more spectral separability (average between two fires M = 2.00) that the dNBR (M = 1.82) and the RdNBR (M=1.80), additionally the GeoCBI has a better adjustment with the RBR of (R² = 0.73), than the RdNBR (R² = 0.72), and dNBR (R² = 0.71). Finally, the overall classification accuracy achieved with the MLE (Kappa = 0.65) has a better result than regression models (Kappa = 0.58) and higher accuracy of individual classes.

Fetal weight estimation before delivery is important in obstetrics, which assists doctors diagnose abnormal or diseased cases. Linear regression based on ultrasound measures such as bi-parietal diameter (bpd), head circumference (hc), abdominal circumference (ac), and fetal length (fl) is common statistical method for weight estimation but the regression model requires that time points of collecting such measures must not be too far from last ultrasound scans. Therefore this research proposes a method of early weight estimation based on expectation maximization (EM) algorithm so that ultrasound measures can be taken at any time points in gestational period. In other words, gestational sample can lack some or many fetus weights, which gives facilities to practitioners because practitioners need not concern fetus weights when taking ultrasound examinations. The proposed method is called dual regression expectation maximization (DREM) algorithm. Experimental results indicate that accuracy of DREM decreases insignificantly when completion of ultrasound sample decreases significantly. So it is proved that DREM withstands missing values in incomplete sample or sparse sample.

As the largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China has made substantial efforts to improve energy efficiency for decrease energy consumption, while the energy rebound effect determines its effectiveness. The embodied energy consumption of construction projects accounted for nearly one-sixth of the total economy's energy consumption in China. This paper is based on the logical relationship among capital input, technological progress, economic growth, and energy consumption, adapting an alternative estimation model to estimate the energy rebound effect for the construction industry in China for the first time. Empirical results in our paper reveal that the energy rebound effect for the construction industry in China is about 59.5% for the period of 1990–2014. The results indicate that the energy rebound effect does exist in China’s construction industry and it presented a fluctuating declining trend. This implies that half of the energy savings by technological progress is achieved. In addition, China’s government should implement proper energy pricing reforms and energy taxes to promote the sustainable development of China’s construction industry.

Electricity price forecasting has become a crucial element for both private and public decision-making. This importance has been growing since the wave of deregulation and liberalization of energy sector worldwide late 1990s. Given these facts, this paper tries to come up with a precise and flexible forecasting model for the wholesale electricity price for the Italian power market on an hourly basis. We utilize artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and bagged regression trees that are rarely used to forecast electricity prices. After model calibration, our final model is bagged regression trees with exogenous variables. The selected model outperformed neural network and bagged regression with single price used in this paper, it also outperformed other statistical and non-statistical models used in other studies. We also confirm some theoretical specifications of the model. As a policy implication, this model might be used by energy traders, transmission system operators and energy regulators for an enhanced decision-making process.

Kinetic parameters of SO2 adsorption on unburned carbons from lignite fly ash and activated carbons based on hard coal dust were determined. The model studies were performed using the linear and non-linear regression method for the following models: pseudo first and second-order, intraparticle diffusion, and chemisorption on a heterogeneous surface. The quality of the fitting of a given model to empirical data was assessed based on: R2, R, Δq, SSE, ARE, χ2, HYBRID, MPSD, EABS, and SNE. It was clearly shown that it is the linear regression that more accurately reflects the behaviour of the adsorption system, which is consistent with the first-order kinetic reaction – for activated carbons (SO2+Ar) or chemisorption on a heterogeneous surface – for unburned carbons (SO2+Ar and SO2+Ar+H2O(g)+O2) and activated carbons (SO2+Ar+H2O(g)+O2). Importantly, usually, each of the approaches (linear/non-linear) indicated a different mechanism of the studied phenomenon. A certain universality of the χ2 and HYBRID functions has been proved, the minimization of which repeatedly led to the lowest SNE values for the indicated models. Fitting data by any of the non-linear equations based on the R or R2 functions only, cannot be treated as evidence/prerequisite of the existence of a given adsorption mechanism.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a chronic disease in which the abdominal aorta expands until it ruptures. AAA incidence: 10 million/year (India), deaths: 40%-90% (13th leading cause of death in the USA). Current treatment methods make diagnosis difficult due to the lack of noticeable symptoms and inaccurately planned operations. Rupture Scope is a mathematical model to dramatically reduce AAA deaths and improve treatment efficiency. Using a case-specific replica/simulation of real-time abdominal aortic blood flow for monitoring without frequent imaging scans and a novel derived mathematical linear regression model to predict rupture date and expansion rate with an overall accuracy of 95.64%.

A non-destructive analysis of proximate parameters (moisture content, MC; volatile matter, VM; fixed carbon, FC; and ash content) for a variety of chipped and ground biomasses was investigated through a combination of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) with partial least squares regression (PLSR). In this study, the thermogravimetric method was employed as a tool to determine the proximate analysis data of biomass samples through TG and DTG curves, which were generated by tracking changes in biomass mass loss over time or temperature. NIRS non−destructively scanned the chipped biomass in diffuse reflectance while ground biomass using transflectance mode, covering the wavenumber range of 3594.87 to 12,489.48 cm−1. The PLSR−based models: Full−PLSR, genetic algorithm (GA)−PLSR, successive projection algorithm (SPA)−PLSR, the spectral multi−preprocessing (MP) PLSR− 5 range method, and the MP PLSR−3 range method were developed. Model performance was assessed, compared, and selected based on the coefficient of determination in the prediction set (R2P), root mean square error in the validation set (RMSEP), and the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD). Based on the comprehensive analysis of model performance, MC and FC models of chip biomass have demonstrated satisfactory performance which makes it applicable cautiously in any application, including research. The optimum models for MC and FC in chip biomass were constructed using GA−PLSR with 2nd derivative and Full−PLSR with a constant offset, resulting in R2P values of 0.8654 and 0.8773, RMSEP values of 0.85% and 2.12%, and RPD values of 2.9 and 3.0, respectively. Other parameters such as MC and FC in ground biomass as well as VM and ash content in both chip and ground biomass were found suitable for rough screening. The sensitivity of the selected model was assessed by calculating the limit of quantification (LOQ), and the results indicated that the calculated LOQ values for VM in both chip and ground biomass and FC in chip biomass are lower than the minimum reference values used during model development, signifying a high level of sensitivity. However, for the remaining parameters, the LOQ values surpass the established minimum reference value, suggesting the model could not predict the future samples with reference value lower than the calibration range. Nevertheless, enhancing the models by incorporation an ample number of representative biomass samples and consistently validating the models with unknown samples is imperative to ensure accurate predictions.

This study explores the correlation between payment statistics and sector-wise Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Indian economy from 2011 to 2022, assessing the importance of payment and settlement systems. Through regression analysis, the impact of payment statistics on GVA across diverse sectors is assessed. The results indicate that, during the specified period, payment statistics exhibit a significant influence on sector-wise GVA. These findings underscore the pivotal role of payment and settlement systems in the Indian financial landscape.

Rice canopy height and density are directly usable crop phenotypic traits for the direct estimation of crop biomass. Therefore, it is crucial to rapidly and accurately estimate rice canopy phenotypic parameters. To achieve non-destructive detection and estimation of essential phenotypic parameters in rice, a platform based on LiDAR point cloud data for rice phenotypic parameter detection was established. Data collection of rice canopy layers was performed across multiple plots. The LiDAR-detected canopy top point clouds were selected using a method based on the highest percentile, and the rice canopy surface model was calculated. Canopy height estimation was the difference between ground elevation and percentile value. To determine the optimal percentile defining the rice canopy top, testing was conducted incrementally from 0.8 to 1 with an increment of 0.005. The optimal percentile value was found to be 0.975. The root mean square error (RMSE) between LiDAR-detected canopy height and manually measured canopy height was calculated. The prediction model based on canopy height (R2=0.941, RMSE=0.019) exhibited a strong correlation with actual canopy height. Linear regression analysis was conducted between gap fraction of different plots and manually detected average Leaf Area Index (LAI) of rice canopy. Prediction models for canopy LAI based on ground return counts (R2=0.24, RMSE=0.1) and ground return intensity (R2=0.28, RMSE=0.09) showed strong correlations but had lower correlation with rice canopy LAI. Regression analysis was performed between LiDAR-detected canopy height and manually measured rice canopy LAI. The results indicated that the prediction model based on canopy height (R2=0.77, RMSE=0.03) was more accurate.

With the intensification of population aging in rural areas, it becomes increasingly important to analyze the post-retirement migration intention of rural residents and the variables influencing these intentions. In this study, we focus on rural residents aged 45 to 60 and investigate the main variables that influence the post-retirement migration intention of rural residents, using survey data collected from 164 households in three different rural areas and the logistic regression model. From the result of this study, we found that gender, part-time employment, savings level, children's residence and occupation stability, and interest in urban living positively affect migration intention. In contrast, the number of rural companions, relationships with others in rural areas, and evaluation of rural living have a negative effect. In addition, we employ age and the proportion of mobile income as control variables to examine the variables that influence the post-retirement migration intention in different age groups and mobile income groups. The analysis reveals that, the variables influencing post-retirement migration intention varied across age groups and mobile income groups, and this variation can be attributed to the differences between groups' characteristics.

A self-protective metal/ liquid microcapsule composite plating coating has been prepared in our previous research. The release speed of liquid core material from microcapsules is crucial for the coating surface properties. The aim of this paper is to study the permeability rule of liquid microcapsules within composite coatings. According to permeability experimental data’s linear characteristics, multiple linear regression is firstly used to set up permeability model of liquid microcapsules. The results show that a reliable mathematical model about membrane porosity, viscosity of core material and membrane thickness is established under ambient temperature and moisture. Meanwhile, the predictive capacity and reliability of this model are analyzed carefully.

The cumulative nature of knowledge in science in general and for social science in particular depends on research being conducted with integrity, with fraudulent research being one of the most harmful of questionable research practices. It has been observed that, in fabricated research, there is often a deficit of zeroes in the last digits of regression results. In research, authored by Dr. Eric A. Stewart, that has been retracted, there appears to have been a paucity of zeroes as last digits in his regression results. Eight hypotheses were tested to re-examine the relative lack of zeroes and possible increases in ones or nines as last digits. Some support was found for all hypotheses. It appears that in Stewart’s retracted research, ones and nines were substituted for zeroes as last digits. Furthermore, the increased proportions of ones and nines was found to be highly correlated with other anomalies in the same retracted articles, possibly indicative of fabrication of the results in the retracted articles. Further research in this area might use symbolic interaction theory or justification theory to guide our developing knowledge about this type of questionable research practice.