Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Estimation of Threshold Age for Cerebral Decline Using Sigmoidal Growth Model in Cross-Sectional Imaging Study

Version 1 : Received: 15 September 2023 / Approved: 15 September 2023 / Online: 18 September 2023 (14:27:39 CEST)

How to cite: Kim, N.; Heo, M.; Fleysher, R.; Sears, M.Z.; Lipton, M.L. Estimation of Threshold Age for Cerebral Decline Using Sigmoidal Growth Model in Cross-Sectional Imaging Study. Preprints 2023, 2023091143. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.1143.v1 Kim, N.; Heo, M.; Fleysher, R.; Sears, M.Z.; Lipton, M.L. Estimation of Threshold Age for Cerebral Decline Using Sigmoidal Growth Model in Cross-Sectional Imaging Study. Preprints 2023, 2023091143. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.1143.v1

Abstract

Backgrounds Linear association has widely been assumed for prediction of aging-related fractional anisotropy (FA) decline in white matter of the brain. While useful for testing significance of the aging effect, it fails to identify a threshold age before and after which the age-FA association changes. Identification of such a threshold is often of clinical interest for timely intervention. Methods We employed a sigmoidal growth function to test a threshold effect in age triggering onset of cerebral decline in 21 white matter tracts, and compared its fitting performance to those of linear, and power regression. The study sample was a normal healthy cohort of 106 participants with ages in mid-life ranging from 18 to 60 years. Results Of the 21 white matter tracts analyzed, the posterior thalamic radiation showed better fit with sigmoidal curve model, compared to a linear or power regression. The estimated threshold age in years (95% confidence interval) were 47.2 (44.1-48.4). Conclusion While available evidence regarding the presence of a specific age threshold for cerebral decline in mid-life based on FA was limited, the posterior thalamic radiation exhibited a threshold age of 47.2. Beyond this age point, we observed a significant change in the FA risk pattern.

Keywords

aging; sigmoidal growth function; nonlinear regression; threshold estimation; fractional anisotropy

Subject

Public Health and Healthcare, Public Health and Health Services

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