Software is playing the most important role in recent vehicle innovation, and consequently the amount of software has been rapidly growing last decades. Safety-critical nature of ships, one sort of vehicles, makes Software Quality Assurance (SQA) has gotten to be a fundamental prerequisite. Just-In-Time Software Defect Prediction (JIT-SDP) aims to conduct software defect prediction (SDP) on commit-level code changes to achieve effective SQA resource allocation. The first case study of SDP in maritime domain reported feasible prediction performance. However, we still consider that the prediction model has still rooms for improvement since the parameters of the model are not optimized yet. Harmony Search (HS) is a widely used music-inspired meta-heuristic optimization algorithm. In this article, we demonstrated that JIT-SDP can produce the better performance of prediction by applying HS-based parameter optimization with balanced fitness value. Using two real-world datasets from the maritime software project, we obtained an optimized model that meets the performance criterion beyond baseline of previous case study throughout various defect to non-defect class imbalance ratio of datasets. Experiments with open source software also showed better recall for all datasets despite we considered balance as performance index. HS-based parameter optimized JIT-SDP can be applied to the maritime domain software with high class imbalance ratio. Finally, we expect that our research can be extended to improve performance of JIT-SDP not only in maritime domain software but also in open source software.

Software reliability is an important characteristic for ensuring the qualities of software products. Predicting the potential number of bugs from the beginning of a development project allows practitioners to make the appropriate decisions regarding testing activities. In the initial development phases, applying traditional software reliability growth models (SRGMs) with limited past data does not always provide reliable prediction result for decision making. To overcome this, herein we propose a new software reliability modeling method called deep cross-project software reliability growth model (DC-SRGM). DC-SRGM is a cross-project prediction method that uses features of previous projects’ data through project similarity. Specifically, the proposed method applies cluster-based project selection for training data source and modeling by a deep learning method. Experiments involving 15 real datasets from a company and 11 open source software datasets show that DC-SRGM can more precisely describe the reliability of ongoing development projects than existing traditional SRGMs and the LSTM model.

Defects in pre-mRNA splicing are frequently a cause of Mendelian disease. Despite the advent of next-generation sequencing, allowing a deeper insight into a patient’s variant landscape, the ability to characterize variants causing splicing defects has not progressed with the same speed. To address this, recent years have seen a sharp spike in the number of splice prediction tools leveraging machine learning approaches, leaving clinical geneticists with a plethora of choices for in silico analysis. In this Review, some basic principles of machine learning are introduced in the context of genomics and splicing analysis. A critical comparative approach is then used to describe seven recent machine learning-based splice prediction tools, revealing highly diverse approaches and common caveats. We find that, although great progress has been made in producing specific and sensitive tools, there is still much scope for personalized approaches to prediction of variant impact on splicing. Such approaches may increase diagnostic yields and underpin improvements to patient care.

With the pandemic of Corona Virus [Covid-19], another infectious disease such as dengue neglected In Indonesia. Since the majority of resources, both human and capital, are focusing more on Covid-19, it is still essential to also manage dengue as it is still becoming a threat to the community. This paper aims to predict the number of cases of dengue in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, which can help the government to plan for dengue program activities. The result shows the forecast that dengue will remain high for the whole year. With the stay at the home approach to preventing COVID19, chances to get dengue virus increased. Maintaining a clean environment, reduction of breeding sites, and other protective measurements against dengue transmission is very important to perform.

The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Genomic selection (GS) can accelerate variety improvement when training set (TS) size, and its relationship with the breeding set (BS) are optimized for prediction accuracies (PA) of genomic prediction (GP) models. Sixteen GP algorithms were run on phenotypic best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and estimators (BLUEs) of resistance to both fall armyworm (FAW) and maize weevil (MW) in a tropical maize panel. For MW resistance, 37% of the panel was the TS, and BS was the remainder whilst for FAW, random-based training sets (RBTS) and pedigree-based training sets (PBTS) were designed. PAs achieved with BLUPs varied from 0.66 to 0.82 for MW resistance traits, and, for FAW resistance, 0.694 to 0.714 for RBTS of 37%, and 0.843 to 0.844 for RBTS of 85%, and, these were at least two-fold those from BLUEs. For PBTS, FAW resistance PAs were generally higher than those for RBTS, except for one dataset. GP models generally showed similar PAs across individual traits whilst the TS designation was determinant since a positive correlation (R=0.92***) between TS size and PAs was observed for RBTS and, for the PBTS, it was negative (R=0.44**). This study pioneers the use of GS for maize resistance to insect pests in sub-Saharan Africa.

Successful engineering of a microbial host for efficient production of a target product from a given substrate can be viewed as an extensive optimization task. Such a task involves the selection of high activity enzymes as well as their gene expression regulatory control elements (i.e., promoters and ribosome binding sites). Finally, there is also the need to tune expression of multiple genes along a heterologous pathway to relieve constraints from rate-limiting step and help reduce metabolic burden on cells from unnecessary over-expression of high activity enzymes. While the aforementioned tasks could be performed through combinatorial experiments, such an approach incurs significant cost, time and effort, which is a handicap that can be relieved by application of modern machine learning tools. Such tools could attempt to predict high activity enzymes from sequence, but they are currently most usefully applied in classifying strong promoters from weaker ones as well as combinatorial tuning of expression of multiple genes. This perspective reviews the application of machine learning tools to aid metabolic pathway optimization through identifying challenges in metabolic engineering that could be overcome with the help of machine learning tools.

Although the most common forms of brain injury in preterm infants have been associated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, existing MRI scoring systems lack specificity, do not incorporate clinical factors, and are technically challenging to perform. The objective of this study was to develop a web-based, clinically-focused prediction system which differentiates severe from normal-moderate neurodevelopmental outcomes at two years. Infants were retrospectively identified as those who were born ≤30 weeks gestation, had MR imaging at term-equivalent age, and neurodevelopmental testing at 18-24 months. Each MRI was scored on injury in three domains (intraventricular hemorrhage, white matter injury, and cerebellar hemorrhage) and clinical factors strongly predictive of outcome were investigated. A binary logistic regression model was then generated from the composite of clinical and imaging components. A total of 154 infants were included (mean GA = 26.1±1.8 weeks, BW = 889.1±226.2 grams). The final model (imaging score + ventilator days + delivery mode + antenatal steroids + ROP requiring surgery) had strong discriminatory power for severe disability (AUC=0.850), with a PPV of 76% and NPV of 90%. Available as a web-based tool, it can be useful for prognostication and targeting early intervention services to infants who may benefit most from such services.

Indian cities are increasingly becoming susceptible to PM10 induced health effects which have become a matter of concern for the policymakers of the country. Air pollution is engulfing the comparatively smaller cities as the rapid pace of urbanization, and economic development seems not to lose steam ever. A review of air pollution of 28 cities of India, which includes tier-I, II, and III cities of India, found to have grossly violated both WHO and NAAQS standards in respect of acceptable daily average PM10 concentrations by a wide margin. Predicting the city level PM10 concentrations in advance and accordingly initiate prior actions is an acceptable solution to save the city dwellers from PM10 induced health hazards. Predictive ability of three models, linear MLR, nonlinear MLP (ANN), and nonlinear CART, for one day ahead PM10 concentration forecasting of tier-II Guwahati city, were tested with 2016-2018 daily average observed climate data, PM10, and gaseous pollutants. The results show that the non-linear algorithm MLP with feedforward backpropagation network topologies of ANN class, giving the best prediction value when compared with linear MLR and nonlinear CART model. ANN (MLP) approach, therefore, may be useful to effectively derive a predictive understanding of one day ahead PM10 concentration level and thus provide a tool to the policymakers for improving decision-making associated with air pollution and public health.

The conventional method used for calculating pavement condition index (PCI) has two major drawbacks: safety problems during pavement inspection, and human error. This paper proposes a method for removing these problems. The proposed method uses surface deflection data in falling weight Deflectometer test to estimate PCI. The data used in this study were derived from 236 pavement segments taken from Tehran-Qom freeway in Iran. The data set was analyzed using multi layers perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. These neural networks were optimized by levenberg-marquardt (MLP-LM), scaled conjugate gradient (MLP-SCG), imperialist competitive (RBF-ICA), and genetic (RBF-GA) algorithms. After initial modeling with four neural networks mentioned, the committee machine intelligent systems (CMIS) method was adopted to combine the results and improve the accuracy of the modeling. The results of analysis have been verified by the four criteria of average percent relative error (APRE), average absolute percent relative error (AAPRE), root mean square error (RMSE) and standard error (SD). The best reported results belonged to CMIS, including APRE=2.3303, AAPRE=11.6768, RMSE=12.0056, and SD=0.0210.

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

Confidence in intermodal transport has not yet been defined. There are many different approaches to the concept of trust. However, the authors embedded them in the light of the challenges of sustainability, linking with the shift paradigm. The objective of the article is to indicate the directions and criteria for the implementation of the shift paradigm, inscribed in the idea of sustainable transport. The auxiliary objective is to predict which countries in a given year will have the TRUST status, i.e. implement the shift paradigm, and which will not implement it (DISTRESS). The article uses taxonometric techniques and built a model using General Discriminant Analysis. On their basis, the utility function was approximated, including the directions of implementation of the shift paradigm depending on the scale of the environmental load of transport. In the course of the research, an original and innovative econometric model was constructed, pointing to three variables, which had the greatest impact on trust. Thanks to the cognitive value of the model, it is possible to identify individuals who deserve the trust, i.e. it will implement the shift paradigm, with 93% probability. In the future, it is worth expanding the research by models for each country.

Highly nonlinear characteristics of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are significantly influenced by the external and internal temperature of the LIB cell. Moreover, cell temperature beyond the manufacturer’s specified safe operating limit could lead to thermal runaway and even fire hazards and safety concerns to operating personnel. Therefore, accurate information of cell internal and surface temperature of LIB is highly crucial for effective thermal management and proper operation of a battery management system (BMS). Accurate temperature information is also essential to BMS for the accurate estimation of various important states of LIB such as state of charge, state of health and so on. High capacity LIB pack, used in electric vehicles and grid-tied stationary energy storage system essentially consists of thousands of individual LIB cells. Therefore, installing a physical sensor at each cell especially at the cell core is not practically feasible from the solution cost, space and weight point of view. A solution is to develop a suitable estimation strategy which led scholars to propose different temperature estimation schemes aiming to establish a balance among accuracy, adaptability, modelling complexity and computational cost. This article presented an exhaustive review of these estimation strategies covering recent developments, current issues, major challenges, and future research recommendations. The prime intention is to provide a detailed guideline to the researchers and industries towards developing a highly accurate, intelligent, adaptive, easy to implement and compute efficient online temperature estimation strategy applicable to health-conscious fast charging and smart onboard BMS.

Nipah virus (NiV) is responsible to cause various outbreaks in Asian countries, with latest from Kerala state of India. Till date there is no drug available despite its urgent requirement. In the current study, we have provided a computational one-stop solution for NiV inhibitors. We have developed “anti-Nipah” web resource, which comprised of a data repository, prediction method, and data visualization modules. The database comprised of 313 (181 unique) inhibitors from different strains and outbreaks of NiV extracted from research articles and patents. However, the quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) based predictors were accomplished using classification approach employing 10-fold cross validation through support vector machine with 120 (68p + 52n) inhibitors. The overall predictor showed the accuracy and Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 88.89% and 0.77 on training/testing dataset respectively. The independent validation dataset also performed equally well. The data visualization modules from chemical clustering and principal component analyses displayed the diversity in the NiV inhibitors. Therefore, our web platform would be of immense help to the researchers working in developing effective inhibitors against NiV. The user-friendly webserver is freely available on URL: http://bioinfo.imtech.res.in/manojk/antinipah/

To gain insight into riser motions and associated fatigue damage due to vortex-induced vibration (VIV), data loggers such as strain sensors and/or accelerometers are sometimes deployed on risers to monitor their motion in different current velocity conditions. Accurate reconstruction of the riser response and empirical estimation of fatigue damage rates over the entire riser length using measurements from a limited number of sensors can help in efficient utilization of the costly measurements recorded. Several different empirical procedures are described here for analysis of the VIV response of a long flexible cylinder subjected to uniform and sheared current profiles. The methods include weighted waveform analysis (WWA), proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), modal phase reconstruction (MPR), a modified WWA procedure, and a hybrid method which combines MPR and the modified WWA method. Fatigue damage rates estimated using these different empirical methods are compared and cross-validated against measurements. Detailed formulations for each method are presented and discussed with examples. Results suggest that all the empirical methods, despite different underlying assumptions in each of them, can be employed to estimate fatigue damage rates quite well from limited strain measurements.

In this paper we present experimental results concerning Acoustic Emission (AE) recorded during cyclic compression tests on two different kinds of brittle building materials, namely concrete and basalt. The AE inter-event times were investigated through a non-extensive statistical mechanics analysis which shows that their decumulative probability distributions follow q-exponential laws. The entropic index q and the relaxation parameter q  1=Tq, obtained by fitting the experimental data, exhibit systematic changes during the various stages of the failure process, namely (q; Tq) linearly align. The Tq = 0 point corresponds to the macroscopic breakdown of the material. The slope, including its sign, of the linear alignment appears to depend on the chemical and mechanical properties of the sample. These results provide an insight on the warning signs of the incipient failure of building materials and could therefore be used in monitoring the health of existing structures such as buildings and bridges.

Background: Accurate prediction of patients’ response to therapy is clinically indispensable, howbeit challenging. With increased understanding of the human genome and malignancies, there is the renaissance of in silico pharmacogenomics with renewed interest in drug response predictability based on gene-drug interaction. Objective: Evidence-based transcript-proteome profiling is essential for synthesizing clinically applicable algorithms for predicting response to anticancer therapy, including immune checkpoint blockade (ICBT); thus, saving physicians’ time, reducing polypharmacy, and curtailing unnecessary treatment expense. In this study, we tested and validated the hypothesis that a selected proteomic signature in ICBT-naïve patients is sufficient for the prediction of response to ICBT. Methods: Using a multimodal approach consisting of computational pharmacogenomics, transcript-proteome analytics, mathematical modeling, and machine learning systems; we delineated therapy-sensitivity and stratified patients into graduated response groups based on their proteomic profile. Protein expression levels in our cohort tissue specimens were evaluated based on T cell- and non-T cell- inflamed phenotypes by immunohistochemistry. Results: We established β-catenin, PDL1, CD3 and CD8 expression-based ICBT response model. Statistical regression models validated the predictive association between our predefined algorithms and therapeutic outcome. Interestingly, our 4-gene prediction classifier was constitutively independent of tumor tissue origin, correctly stratified patients into high-, low-, and non- responders pre-treatment, with high prediction accuracy, and exhibited good association with patients’ performance status and prognosis (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the possibility of accurate proteomics based ICBT response prediction and provide a putative basis for drug response prediction based on selective proteome profile in untreated cancer patients.

Appropriate estimation of soil settlement is of significant importance since it directly influences the performance of building and infrastructures that are built on soil. In particular, the settlement of fine-grained soils is critical because of low permeability and continuous settlement with time. Coefficient of consolidation (Cc) is a key parameter to estimate settlement of fine-grained soil layers. However, estimation of this parameter is time consuming, needs skilled technicians, and specific equipment. In this study, Cc was estimated using several soil parameters such as liquid limit (LL), plastic limit (PL), and initial void ratio (e0). Estimating such parameters in laboratory is straight forward and needs substantially less time and cost compared to conventional tests to estimate Cc such as Oedometer test. This study presents a novel prediction model for Cc of fine-grained soils using gene-expression programming (GEP). GEP is a biologically inspired technique capable of offering closed-form solution for the optimal solution. A database consisted of 108 different data points was used to develop the model. A closed-form equation solution was derived to estimate Cc based on LL, PL, and e0. The performance of developed GEP-based model was evaluated through coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean average error (MAE). High R2 and low error values indicated the descent performance of the model. Furthermore, the model was evaluated using the additional performance measures and met all the suggested criteria. Furthermore, the model had a better performance in terms of R2, RMSE, and MAE compared to most of existing models. It is expected that the developed model will decrease the time and cost associate with determining Cc of fine-grained soils.

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies aim to predict the risks of complex diseases using proprietary algorithms. Companies keep algorithms as trade secrets for competitive advantage, but a market that thrives on the premise that customers can make their own decisions about genetic testing should respect customer autonomy and informed decision making and maximize opportunities for transparency. The algorithm itself is only one piece of the information that is deemed essential for understanding how prediction algorithms are developed and evaluated. Companies should be encouraged to disclose everything else, including the expected risk distribution of the algorithm when applied in the population, using a benchmark DNA dataset. A standardized presentation of information and risk distributions allows customers to compare test offers and scientists to verify whether the undisclosed algorithms could be valid. A new model of oversight in which stakeholders collaboratively keep a check on the commercial market is needed.

It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.

Predicting the popularity of posts on social networks has taken on significant importance in recent years, and several social media management tools now offer solutions to improve and optimize the quality of published content and to enhance the attractiveness of companies and organizations. Scientific research has recently moved in this direction, with the aim of exploiting advanced techniques such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, etc., to support such tools. In light of the above, in this work we aim to address the challenge of predicting the popularity of a future post on Instagram, by defining the problem as a classification task and by proposing an original approach based on Gradient Boosting and feature engineering, which led us to promising experimental results. The proposed approach exploits big data technologies for scalability and efficiency and is general enough to be applied to other social media as well.

In cognitive radio systems, identifying spectrum opportunities is fundamental to efficiently use the spectrum. Spectrum occupancy prediction is a convenient way of revealing opportunities based on previous occupancies. Studies have demonstrated that usage of the spectrum has a high correlation over multidimensions which includes time, frequency, and space. Accordingly, recent literature uses tensor-based methods to exploit the multidimensional spectrum correlation. However, these methods share two main drawbacks. First, they are computationally complex. Second, they need to re-train the overall model when no information is received from any base station for any reason. Different than the existing works, this paper proposes a method for dividing the multidimensional correlation exploitation problem into a set of smaller sub-problems. This division is achieved through composite two-dimensional (2D)-long short-term memory (LSTM) models. Extensive experimental results reveal a high detection performance with more robustness and less complexity attained by the proposed method. The real-world measurements provided by one of the leading mobile network operators in Turkey validate these results.

Culture exploits the acquisition of meaningful content by crafting regimes of shared attention, determining what is relevant, valuable, and salient. Culture changes the field of relevant social affordances worthy of being acted upon in a context-sensitive manner. When relevant affordances are highly weighted, their attentional capture and their salience increase the probability of them being enacted due to the associated expectation for minimizing prediction error. This process is known as active inference. In the digital era, individuals need to infer the action-related attributes of digital cues, here characterized as digital affordances. The digital affordances of digital social platforms are of particular interest here. Digital social affordances are defined as online possibilities of social interactions. By their own nature, these are salient because they are related to social interactions and relevant social cues. However, the problem of digital social platforms is that they are not equivalent to situated social interactions because their structure is built, mediated, and defined by third-parties with diverse interests. The third-parties behind the digital social platforms are using the same mechanism exploited by culture to manipulate the shared patterns of attention. Moreover, digital social platforms are deliberately designed to be hyper-stimulating, making digital social affordances highly rewarding and increasingly salient. This appropriation, for economic purposes, is an issue of great importance, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic brought deep global changes, pushing societies to an online digital way of life. Here, we examined different types of digital social affordances under an active inference view, placing them into two categories, those for self-identity formation, and those for belief-updating. This paper aims to analyze digital social affordances in light of the prediction error dynamics they might elicit to their users. Although each of the analyzed digital social affordances allows different epistemic and instrumental digital actions, they all share the characteristic of having an "easy" and a fast expected rate of error reduction. Here, we aim to provide a new hypothesis about how the design behind digital social affordances is built on our natural attractiveness to minimize prediction error and the resulting positive embodied feelings when doing so. Finally, it is suggested that because digital social affordances are becoming highly weighted in the field of affordances, this might be putting at risk our context-sensitive grip on a rich, dynamic and varied field of relevant affordances.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) challenges include understanding what triggered SARS-CoV-2 emergence, how this RNA virus is evolving or how the genomic variability may impact the primary structure of proteins that are targets for vaccine. We analyzed 19471 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and 199,984 spike glycoprotein sequences available at the GISAID database from all over the world and 3335 genomes of other Coronoviridae family members available at Genbank, collecting SARS-CoV-2 high-quality genomes and distinct Coronoviridae family genomes. Here, we identify a SARS-CoV-2 emerging cluster containing 13 closely related genomes isolated from bat and pangolin that showed evidence of recombination, which may have contributed to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. The analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes presented 9632 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) corresponding to a variant density of 0.3 over the genome, and a clear geographic distribution. SNPs are unevenly distributed throughout the genome and hotspots for mutations were found for the spike gene and ORF 1ab. We describe a set of predicted spike protein epitopes whose variability is negligible. All predicted epitopes for the structural E, M and N proteins are highly conserved. This result favors the continuous efficacy of the available vaccines.

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are considered as promising alternatives to conventional antibiotics in order to overcome the growing problems of antibiotic resistance. Computational prediction approaches receive an increasing interest to identify and design the best candidate AMPs prior to the in-vitro tests. In this study, we focused on the linear cationic peptides with non-hemolytic activity, which are downloaded from the Database of Antimicrobial Activity and Structure of Peptides (DBAASP). Referring to the MIC (Minimum inhibition concentration) values, we have assigned a positive label to a peptide if it shows antimicrobial activity; otherwise the peptide is labeled as negative. Here, we focused on the peptides showing antimicrobial activity against Gram-negative and against Gram-positive bacteria separately, and we created two datasets accordingly. Ten different physico-chemical properties of the peptides are calculated and used as features in our study. Following data exploration and data preprocessing steps, a variety of classification algorithms are used with 100-fold Monte Carlo Cross Validation to build models and to predict the antimicrobial activity of the peptides. Among the generated models, Random Forest has resulted in the best performance metrics for both Gram-negative dataset (Accuracy: 0.98, Recall: 0.99, Specificity: 0.97, Precision: 0.97, AUC: 0.99, F1: 0.98) and Gram-positive dataset (Accuracy: 0.95, Recall: 0.95, Specificity: 0.95, Precision: 0.90, AUC: 0.97, F1: 0.92) after outlier elimination is applied. This prediction approach might be useful to evaluate the antibacterial potential of a candidate peptide sequence before moving to the experimental studies.

A patient will visit physicians when he/she feels ill. This illness is not for COVID-19 but it is a general tendency of human being to visit doctor probably it can not be controlled by general drug. When a patient comes to a doctor, the doctor examines him/her after knowing his/her problem. The physician always asks him/her about some questions related to him/her daily life. For example, if a young male patient comes to a doctor with a symptom of fever and cough, the first question doctor asked him that he has a habit of smoking. Then doctor asks him whether this type of symptom appeared often to him previously or not. If the answers of both questions are yes, then the first one is habit and the second one is that he may suffering from some serious disease or a disease due to the weather. The aim of this paper is to consider habit of the patient as well as he/she has been affected by a critical disease. This information is used to build a model that will predict whether there is any possibility of his/her being affected by COVID-19. This research work contributes to tackle the pandemic situation occurred due to Corona Virus Infectious Disease, 2019 (Covid-19). Outbreak of this disease happens based on numerous factors such as past health records and habits of patients. Health records include diabetes tendency, cardiovascular disease existence, pregnancy, asthma, hypertension, pneumonia; chronic renal disease may contribute to this disease occurrence. Past lifestyles such as tobacco, alcohol consumption may be analyzed. A deep learning based framework is investigated to verify the relationship between past health records, habits of patients and covid-19 occurrence. A stacked Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based model is proposed in this paper that identifies whether a patient can be infected by this disease or not. The proposed predictive system is compared against existing benchmark Machine Learning classifiers such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT).

In this paper we propose the generation of synthetic small and more sophisticated molecule structures that optimize the binding affinity to a target (ASYNT-GAN). To achieve this we leverage on three important achievements in A.I.: Attention, Deep Learning on Graphs and Generative Adversarial Networks. Similar to text generation based on parts of text we are able to generate a molecule architecture based on an existing target. By adopting this approach, we propose a novel way of searching for existing compounds that are suitable candidates. Similar to question and answer Natural Language solutions we are able to find drugs with highest relevance to a target. We are able to identify substructures of the molecular structure that are the most suitable for binding. In addition, we are proposing a novel way of generating the molecule in 3D space in such a way that the binding is optimized. We show that we are able to generate compound structures and protein structures that are optimised for binding to a target.

A combination of physical-chemical analysis has been used to monitor the aging of red wines from D.O. Toro (Spain). The changes in the chemical composition of wines that occur along aging time can be permitted to discriminate wine samples collected after one, four, seven and ten months of aging. Different computational models were used to develop a good authenticity tool to certificate wines. In this research different models have developed: Artificial Neural Network models (ANNs), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) models. The results obtained for the ANN model developed with sigmoidal function in the output neuron and the RF model permit to determine the aging time, with an average absolute percentage deviation below 1% and it can conclude that these two models have demonstrated its capacity as a valid tool to predict the wine age.

The combination of artificial intelligence algorithms and numerical methods has recently become popular in the prediction of macroscopic and microscopic hydrodynamics parameters of bubble column reactors. The multi inputs and outputs machine learning can cover small phase interactions or large fluid behavior in industrial domains. This numerical combination can develop the smart multiphase bubble column reactor with the ability of low-cost computational time. It can also decrease case studies for the optimization process when big data is appropriately used during learning. There are still many model parameters that need to be optimized for a very accurate artificial algorithm, including data processing and initialization, the combination of inputs and outputs, number of inputs and model tuning parameters. For this study, we aim to train four inputs big data during learning process by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system or adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method, and we consider the superficial gas velocity as one of the input variables, while for the first time, one of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) outputs named gas velocity is used as an output of the artificial algorithm. The results show that the increasing number of input variables improves the intelligence of the ANFIS method up to , and the number of rules during learning process has a significant effect on the accuracy of this type of modeling. The results also show that propper selection of model parameters results in more accuracy in prediction of the flow characteristics in the column structure.

The most extensive urban growths in the next 30 years are expected to occur in developing countries. Lagos, Nigeria - Africa’s second most populous megacity- is a prime example. To achieve more sustainable and resilient cities, there is a need for modeling the urban growth patterns of major cities and analyzing their implications. In this study, the urban growth of Lagos state was modeled using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for the transition modeling and the Markov Chain analysis for the change prediction, achieving a model accuracy of 81.8%. An innovative visual validation of the model results using the ArcGIS was combined with kappa correlation statistics. The results show that by 2031, built-up areas will be the most spatially extensive LULC class in the study area with percentage coverage of 34.1% as opposed to 9% in 1986. The coverage of bare areas is also expected to increase by 53% between 2016 and 2031. Conversely, 24.9% and 68.3% loss of forestlands and wetlands respectively, are expected between 2016 and 2031. In view of the 11^th goal of SDGs which focuses on achieving sustainable cities and communities, the objectives of African Union’s Agenda 2063, and based on the urban growth trends observed, the study recommends a prioritization of vertical expansion as opposed to the current horizontal urban growth trends in the study area.

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

In order to design efficient and sustainable office spaces and to automate lighting, heating and air circulation in these facilities, solving the challenge of occupancy prediction is crucial. In office spaces where large areas need to be observed, multiple sensors must be used for full coverage. In these cases, it is normally important to keep the costs low, but also to make sure that the privacy of the people who use such environments are preserved. Low-cost and low-resolution heat (thermal) sensors can be very useful to build solutions that address these concerns. However, they are extremely sensitive to noise artifacts which might be caused by heat prints of the people who left the space or by other objects which are either using electricity or exposed to sunlight. There are some earlier solutions for occupancy prediction that employ low-resolution heat sensors, however, they have not addressed nor compensate for such heat artifacts. Therefore, in this paper, we present a low-cost and low-energy consuming smart space implementation to predict the number of people in the environment based on whether their activity is static or dynamic in time. We use a low-resolution (8×8) and non-intrusive heat sensor to collect data from an actual meeting room. We propose two novel workflows to predict the occupancy; one based on computer vision and one based on machine learning. Besides comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these different workflows, we use several state-of-the-art explainability methods in order to provide a detailed analysis of the algorithm parameters and how the image properties influence the resulting performance. Furthermore, we analyze noise resources which affect the heat sensor data. We hope that our analysis brings light into understanding how to handle very low-resolution heat images in these environments. The presented workflows could be used in various domains and applications other than smart offices, where occupancy prediction is essential, e.g., for elderly care.

The enormous increase in the volume of Earth Observations (EOs) has provided the scientific community with unprecedented temporal, spatial, and spectral information. However, this increase in the volume of EOs has not yet resulted in proportional progress with our ability to forecast agricultural systems.This study examines the applicability of EOs obtained from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 for constraining the APSIM-Maize model parameters. We leveraged leaf area index (LAI) retrieved from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 NDVI to constrain a series of APSIM-Maize model parameters in three different Bayesian multi-criteria optimization frameworks across 13 different sites across the U.S Midwest. A time variant sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential parameters driving the LAI estimates in APSIM-Maize model. Then surrogate models were develop using random samples taken from the parameter space using Latin hypercube sampling to emulate APSIM’s behavior in simulating NDVI and LAI at all sites. Site-level, global and hierarchical Bayesian optimization models were then developed using the site-level emulators to simultaneously constrain all parameters and estimate the site to site variability in crop parameters. For within sample predictions, site-level optimization showed the largest predictive uncertainty around LAI and crop yield, whereas the global optimization showed the most constraint predictions for these variables. Lowest RMSE for within sample yield prediction was found for hierarchical optimization scheme (1423 Kg ha−1) while the largest RMSE was found for site-level (1494 Kg ha−1). In out-of-sample predictions within the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization showed lower RMSE (1627 Kg ha−1) compared to the hierarchical approach (1822 Kg ha−1) across 90 independent sites in the U.S Midwest. On comparison between these two optimization schemes across another 242 independent sites outside the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization also showed substantially lower RMSE (1554 Kg ha−1) as compared to the hierarchical approach (2532 Kg ha−1). Overall, EOs demonstrated their real use case for constraining process-based crop models and showed comparable results to model calibration exercises using only field measurements.

Members of the DUF34 (domain of unknown function 34) family, also known as the NIF3 protein superfamily, are ubiquitous across superkingdoms. Proteins of this family have been widely annotated as “GTP cyclohydrolase I type 2” through electronic propagation based on one study. Here, the annotation status of this protein family was examined through comprehensive literature review and integrative bioinformatic analyses that revealed varied pleiotropic associations and phenotypes. This analysis combined with functional complementation studies strongly challenges the current annotation and suggests that DUF34 family members may serve as metal ion insertases, chaperones, or metallocofactor maturases. This general molecular function could explain how DUF34 subgroups participate in highly diversified pathways such as cell differentiation, metal ion homeostasis, pathogen virulence, redox and universal stress responses.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding programs can take over a decade to release a new variety. However, new methods of selection such as genomic selection (GS) must be integrated to decrease the time it takes to release new varieties to meet the demand of a growing population. The implementation of GS into breeding programs is still being explored, with many studies showing its potential to change wheat breeding through achieving higher genetic gain. In this review, we explore the integration of GS for a wheat breeding program by redesigning the traditional breeding pipeline to implement GS. We propose implementing a two-part breeding strategy by differentiating between population improvement and product development. The implementation of GS in the product development pipeline can be integrated into most stages and can predict within and across breeding cycles. Additionally, we explore optimizing the population improvement strategy through GS recurrent selection schemes to reduce crossing cycle time and significantly increase genetic gain. The recurrent selection schemes can be optimized for parental selection, maintenance of genetic variation, and optimal cross-prediction. Overall, we outline the ability to increase the genetic gain of a breeding program by implementing GS and a two-part breeding strategy.

Recently, due to the miniaturization of electronic products, printed circuit boards (PCBs) have also become smaller. This trend has led to the need for high-precision electrical test equipment to check PCBs for disconnections and short circuits. The purpose of this study is to improve the position repeatability of the platform unit up to ±2.5 μm in a linear stage type test equipment. For this purpose, the causes of position errors of the platform unit are analyzed. The platform unit holding the PCB is driven by a single-axis linear ball screw drive system offset from its geometric center due to design constraints. The yaw rotation of the platform is found to have a dominant effect on position repeatability. To address this problem, the methods of adding balancing weights to the platform unit and adjusting the stiffness of LM Guides are proposed. This reduces the yaw rotation by moving the centers of mass and stiffness closer to the linear ball screw actuator. In the verification tests, the position repeatability was decreased to less than ±1.0 μm.

Peat is the main type of peloid used in Polish cosmetic/healing spa facilities. Depending on treatment and origin, peat waste can be contaminated microbiologically, and as result, it has to be incinerated in medical waste incineration plants without energy recovery (local law). Such a situation leads to peat waste management costs increase. Therefore in this work, we checked the possibility of peat waste upcycling to carbonized solid fuel (CSF) using torrefaction. Torrefaction is a thermal treatment process that removes microbiological contamination and improves the fuel properties of peat waste. In work torrefaction conditions (temperature and time) on CSF quality were tested. Parallelly, peat decomposition kinetics using TGA, and torrefaction kinetics with lifetime prediction using macro-TGA were determined. Furthermore, torrefaction theoretical mass and energy balance were determined. The results of the tested peat were compared with reference material (wood), and as result, obtained data can be used to adjust currently used wood torrefaction technologies for peat torrefaction. The results show that torrefaction can improve the high heating value of peat waste from 19.0 MJ x kg-1 to 21.3 MJ x kg-1, peat main decomposition takes place at 200-550 °C following second reaction order (n=2), with an activation energy of 33.34 kJ x mol-1 and pre-exponential factor of 4.40 x 10-1 s-1. Moreover, DSC analysis revealed that peat torrefaction required slightly more energy than wood torrefaction, and macro TGA showed that peat torrefaction has lower torrefaction constant reaction rates (k) than wood 1.05 x 10-5 - 3.15 x 10-5 vs 1.43 x 10-5 - 7.25 x 10-5 s-1.

In the steeply inclined and extremely thick coal seams (SIETCS) mined using the horizontal sublevel top-coal caving (HSTCC) method, the uncertainty of gas emission is a safety threat to the mining operations. In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents, the determination of gas emission is crucial. In this paper, we first proposed a prediction model for workers at the floor coalbed to calculate gas emission on site. We then put forward a finite element numerical simulation for researchers to predict gas emission from the floor coalbed. At last, we measured gas emitted from the floor coalbed of SIETCS in Wudong Coal Mine in a specific mining period and used the data to verify the applicability and accuracy of these two gas-emission prediction methods. The results showed that the gas emission from Wudong Coal Mine was 1.08 m³/min calculated based on the prediction model and 1.07 m³/min obtained using the user-defined integration method. Both methods have their own advantages, disadvantages and applicable objects, and are important in predicting gas emission from SIETCS mined using HSTCC method.

Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be used to have precise estimations of it. In this regard, in the present study, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Nearest-Neighbor (IBK), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to estimate the pan evaporation (PE) in the meteorological stations of Golestan Province, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W) and sunny hours (S) collected from the Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The outcome indicates that the optimum state of Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with the error values of 1.521, 1.244, and 1.254, the Nearest-Neighbor (IBK) with error values of 1.991, 1.775, and 1.577, Random Forest (RF) with error values of 1.614, 1.337, and 1.316, and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with error values of 1.55, 1.262, and 1.275, respectively, have more appropriate performances in estimating PE. It found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W, and S had the most accurate performances and proposed for precise estimation of PE. Due to the high rate of evaporation in Iran and the lack of measurement instruments, the findings of the current study indicated that the PE values might be estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters accurately.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.

An important aspect of PET imaging in clinical application is the localization and detection of tumors and lesions by administering a predetermined amount of radiotracer. This allows for example, a detailed view of what is going inside the patient body in cellular level. The quality of PET image is strongly dependent on the amount of administrated radiotracer and the patient’s body parameters. As the amount of injection radiotracer increases, the quality of resulting image increases and the lesion detection efficiency increases. The PET examiner society recognizes that any dose of radiotracer is associated with some possible radiation risks. It can harmful to the patient if essential PET imaging session is not made due to fear of radiation risk. In order to ensure the highest quality diagnosis and the smallest radiation risk, the patient should receive the smallest amount of radiotracer that provide image with sufficient quality. Our study is focused on proposing an efficient PET simulation tool that predict the smallest possible amount of administrated radiotracer to provides the appropriate diagnostic information based on significant patient’s body parameters (weight, age) at fixed scanning to improve the clinical diagnostic process in term of tumor detecting and localization. We have built a model of particular PET scanner and model of patient based on real MRI image and digital anthropomorphic phantom of our region of interest (brain). We have performed Monte Carlo simulation for whole PET procedure with special parameter In evaluating stage, a dataset of 60 patient is used and 11 independent dose prediction simulation for each patient are performed. We conclude that our simulator perform a desirable and efficient prediction of injection radiotracer amount that optimizes the current clinical amount up to 28%. In addition, we found that the total injected radiotracer dosage for adult patients are mostly affected when considering patient weight rather than patient age.

Real estate has the dual characteristics of consumption and investment. Under the inherent concept of "where there is land, there is wealth", real estate has become the investment target of the main asset. In addition to the supply and demand of the market will affect the price of real estate, many general economic factors will also have a certain impact on the price of real estate. This paper pays a special focus on the effects of MRT on housing prices, finding the closer a house is to an MRT station, the higher its price. In addition, convenience stores are very popularized, and this research report is also interested in whether the number of convenience stores within walking distance will affect the house price. In a word, these two factors do affect housing prices significantly.

In this paper, we propose an adaptive duty-cycled hybrid X-MAC (ADX-MAC) protocol for energy-efficient forest fire prediction. The X-MAC protocol acquires the additional environmental status collected by each forest fire monitoring sensor for a certain period. And, based on these values, the length of sleep interval of duty-cycle is changed to efficiently calculate the risk of occurrence of forest fire according to the mountain environment. The performance of the proposed ADX-MAC protocol was verified through experiments the proposed ADX-MAC protocol improves throughput by 19% and was more energy-efficient by 24% compared to X-MAC protocol. As the probability of forest fires increases, the length of the duty cycle is shortened, confirming that the forest fires are detected at a faster cycle.

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is non-linear, non-stationary, and which have periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using Support Vector Regression. This work explores the potential of the Support Vector Regression with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchanges. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data-sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model Support Vector Regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, being the RMSE equal or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

In this work we present the results obtained with an artificial neural network (ANN) which we trained to predict the expected output of high-order harmonic generation (HHG) process, while exploring a multi-dimensional parameter space. We argue on the utility and efficiency of the ANN model and demonstrate its ability to predict the outcome of HHG simulations. In this case study we present the results for a loose focusing HHG beamline, where the changing parameters are: the laser pulse energy, gas pressure, gas cell position relative to focus and gas cell length. The physical quantity which we predict here using ANN is directly related to the total harmonic yield in a specified spectral domain (20-40 eV). We discuss the versatility and adaptability of the presented method.

This paper realizes early bearing fault warning through bearing fault time series prediction, and proposes a bearing fault time series prediction model based on optimized maximum correlation kurtosis deconvolution (MCKD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network to ensure bearings operation reliability. The model is based on lifecycle vibration signal of the bearing, to begin, the cuckoo search (CS) is utilized to optimize the parameter filter length L and deconvolution period T of MCKD, taking into account the influence and periodicity of the bearing time series, the fault impact component of the optimized MCKD deconvolution time series is improved. Then select the LSTM learning rate α depending on deconvolution time series. Finally, the dataset obtained through various preprocessing approaches are used to train and predict the LSTM model. The average prediction accuracy of the optimized MCKD-LSTM model is 26 percent higher than that of the original time series, proving the efficiency of this method, and the prediction results track the real fault data well, according to the XI'AN JIAOTONG University XJTU-SY bearing dataset.

The choice of holiday destinations is highly depended on climate considerations. Nowadays, since the effects of climate crisis are being increasingly felt, the need of accurate weather and climate services for hotels is crucial. Such a service could be beneficial for both the future planning of tourists’ activities and destinations and for hotel managers as it could help in decision making about the planning and expansion of the touristic season, due to a prediction of higher temperatures for a longer time span, thus causing increased revenue for companies in the local touristic sector. The aim of this work is to calculate predictions on climatic variables using statistical techniques as well as Artificial Intelligence (AI) for a specific area of interest utilising data from in situ meteorological station, and produce valuable and reliable localised predictions with the most cost-effective method possible. This investigation will answer the question of the most suitable prediction method for time series data from a single meteorological station that is deployed in a specific location. As a result, an accurate representation of the microclimate in a specific are is achieved. To achieve this high accuracy in situ measurements and prediction techniques are used. As prediction techniques, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), AI techniques like the Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) Neural Network and hybrid combinations of the two are used. Variables of interest are divided in the easier to predict temperature and humidity that are more periodic and less chaotic, and the wind speed as an example of a more stochastic variable with no known seasonality and patterns. Our results show that the examined Hybrid methodology performs the best at temperature and wind speed forecasts, closely followed by the SARIMA whereas LSTM perform better overall at the humidity forecast, even after the correction of the Hybrid to the SARIMA model.

The prediction of stock prices holds significant implications for researchers and investors in evaluating stock value and risk. In recent years, researchers have increasingly replaced traditional machine learning methods with deep learning approaches in this domain. However, the application of deep learning in forecasting stock prices is confronted with the challenge of overfitting. To address the issue of overfitting and enhance predictive accuracy, this study proposes a stock prediction model based on GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) with reconstructed datasets. This model integrates data from other stocks within the same industry, thereby enriching the extracted features and mitigating the risk of overfitting. Additionally, an auxiliary module is employed to augment the volume of data through dataset reconstruction, thereby enhancing the model’s training comprehensiveness and generalization capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy across various industries.

The accuracy of sales prediction models based on the big data of online word-of-mouth (eWOM) is still not satisfied. We argue that eWOM contains heat and sentiments of different product dimensions, which can improve the accuracy of these models. In this paper, we propose a dynamic topic analysis (DTA) framework in order to extract heat and sentiments of product dimensions from the big data of eWOM. Finally, we propose an autoregressive-heat-sentiment (ARHS) model, which integrates heat and sentiments of dimensions into the baseline predictive model. The empirical study in movie industry confirms that heat and sentiments of dimensions can improve the accuracy of sales prediction model. ARHS model is better for movie box-office revenue prediction than other models.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created immense threats to public health on various levels around the globe. The unpredictable outbreak of this disease and the pandemic situation are causing severe depression, anxiety and other mental as physical health related problems among the human beings. To combat against this disease, vaccination is essential as it will boost the immune system of human beings while being in the contact with the infected people. The vaccination process is thus necessary to confront the outbreak of COVID-19. This deadly disease has put social, economic condition of the entire world into an enormous challenge. The worldwide vaccination progress should be tracked to identify how fast the entire economic as well as social life will be stabilized. The monitor ofthe vaccination progress, a machine learning based Regressor model is approached in this study. This tracking process has been applied on the data starting from 14^th December, 2020 to 24^th April, 2021. A couple of ensemble based machine learning Regressor models such as Random Forest, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost and Extreme Gradient Boosting are implemented and their predictive performance are compared. The comparative study reveals that the AdaBoostRegressor outperforms with minimized mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.968 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 11.133.

This paper provides a review of an emerging field in the food processing sector, referring to efficient and safe food supply chains, ’from farm to fork’, as enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent advances in machine and deep learning are used for effective food production, energy management and food labeling. Appropriate deep neural architectures are adopted and used for this purpose, including Fully Convolutional Networks, Long Short-Term Memories and Recurrent Neural Networks, Auto-Encoders and Attention mechanisms, Latent Variable extraction and clustering, as well as Domain Adaptation. Three experimental studies are presented, illustrating the ability of these AI methodologies to produce state-of-the-art performance in the whole food supply chain. In particular, these concern: (i) predicting plant growth and tomato yield in greenhouses, thus matching food production to market needs and reducing food waste or food unavailability; (ii) optimizing energy consumption across large networks of food retail refrigeration systems, through optimal selection of systems that can get shut-down and through prediction of the respective food de-freezing times, during peaks of power demand load; (iii) optical recognition and verification of food consumption expiry date in automatic inspection of retail packaged food, thus ensuring safety of food and people’s health.

Reservoir computing is a machine learning method that uses the response of a dynamical system to a certain input in order to solve a task. As the training scheme only involves optimising the weights of the responses of the dynamical system, this method is particularly suited for hardware implementation. Furthermore, the inherent memory of dynamical systems which are suitable for use as reservoirs mean that this method has the potential to perform well on time series prediction tasks, as well as other tasks with time dependence. However, reservoir computing still requires extensive task dependent parameter optimisation in order to achieve good performance. We demonstrate that by including a time-delayed version of the input for various time series prediction tasks, good performance can be achieved with an unoptimised reservoir. Furthermore, we show that by including the appropriate time-delayed input, one unaltered reservoir can perform well on six different time series prediction tasks at a very low computational expense. Our approach is of particular relevance to hardware implemented reservoirs, as one does not necessarily have access to pertinent optimisation parameters in physical systems but the inclusion of an additional input is generally possible.

Reliability assessment is an important component and tool used for process plants since the facility consists of many loops and instruments attached and operates based on each other availability, thus it requires a statistical method to visualize the reliability. The paper focuses on reliability assessment and prediction based on available statistical models such as normal, log-normal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. This paper also visualizes, which model fits best for assessment and prediction and also considers failure modes caused during a simulation mode process control operation. A simulation model is designed in this paper to observe the failure of the control valve causing stiction to visualize the failure modes and predict the best-fit model for reliability assessment.

ClinVar is a web platform that stores around 774k curated entries, which allows exploring genetic variants and their associations with complex phenotypes. A partial set of ClinVar’s genetic associations were reported with conflict of interpretation or uncertain clinical impact significance, which currently challenges clinicians and geneticists. Here, we evaluate the performance of data pre-processing methods combined with classical prediction methods, such as Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine to build a meta-prediction model aiming to improve genetic pathogenicity interpretation. Models were trained with ClinVar data (September 2020), and genetic variants were annotated with eight functional impact predictors catalogued with SnpEff/SnpSift (v4.3). A 10-fold cross-validation strategy was performed for evaluation by accuracy, F1-Score, Receiver Operating Characteristic, Area Under Curve. The best meta-prediction model raises by combining one-hot encoding with tree-based classifiers as Random Forest, which shows Area Under Curve ≥ 0,93. We predict pathogenicity for 109k genetic variants, which were found labeled as uncertain significance or conflict of interpretation. Additionally, we implemented AmazonForest (https://www.lghm.ufpa.br/amazonforest), a web tool to query data for a set of 5k variants that were predicted with high pathogenic probability (RFprob >= 0.9).

This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.

To achieve the near zero emission of wastewater in the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system in coal-fired power plant and better utilize the exhaust heat from flue gas, a feasible technology of spraying FGD wastewater in the flue duct for evaporation is discussed in the present study. A full-scale influencing factor investigation on the wastewater droplet evaporation performance is established under the Eulerian-Lagrangian model numerically. The dominant factors, including the characters of wastewater droplets, flue gas and the spray nozzles were analyzed under different conditions, respectively. Considering the multiple factors and conditions in the process, a Least-Square support vector machine (LSSVM) model is introduced to predict the evaporation rate based on the numerical results. Conclusions are made that the flue gas temperature and droplet diameter are of great importance in the evaporation process. The spray direction of droplet parallel with the flue gas flow direction is profitable for the dispersion of droplet, resulting the maximal evaporation rate. A double-nozzle arrangement optimized with relatively small flow rate is recommended. The LSSVM model can accurately predict the evaporation rate using the numerical results with different conditions.

Many complex networks have a connectivity that might be only partially detected or that tends to grow over time, hence the prediction of non-observed links is a fundamental problem in network science. The aim of topological link prediction is to forecast these non-observed links by only exploiting features intrinsic to the network topology. It has a wide range of real applications, like suggesting friendships in social networks or predicting interactions in biological networks.The Cannistraci-Hebb theory is a recent achievement in network science that includes a theoretical framework to understand local-based link prediction on paths of length n. In this study we introduce two innovations: theory of modelling (science) and theory of realization (engineering). For the theory of modelling we first recall a definition of network automata as a general framework for modelling the growth of connectivity in complex networks. We then show that several deterministic models previously developed fall within this framework and we introduce novel network automata following the Cannistraci-Hebb rule. For the theory of realization, we present how to build adaptive network automata for link prediction, which incorporate multiple deterministic models of self-organization and automatically choose the rule that better explains the patterns of connectivity in the network under investigation. We compare Cannistraci-Hebb adaptive (CHA) network automaton against state-of-the-art link prediction methods such as structural perturbation method (SPM), stochastic block models (SBM) and artificial intelligence algorithms for graph embedding. CHA displays an overall higher link prediction performance across different evaluation frameworks on 1386 networks. Finally, we highlight that CHA offers the key advantage to explicitly explain the mechanistic rule of self-organization which leads to the link prediction performance, whereas SPM and graph embedding not. In comparison to CHA, SBM unfortunately shows irrelevant and unsatisfactory performance demonstrating that SBM modelling is not adequate for link prediction in real networks.

In this paper a novel and flexible solution for fault prediction based on data collected from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is presented. Generic fault/status prediction is offered by means of a data driven approach based on a self-organizing map (SOM)and the definition of an original Key Performance Indicator (KPI). The model has been assessed on a park of three photovoltaic (PV) plants with installed capacity up to 10 MW, and on more than sixty inverter modules of three different technology brands. The results indicate that the proposed method is effective in predicting incipient generic faults in average up to 7 days in advance with true positives rate up to 95%. The model is easily deployable for on-line monitoring of anomalies on new PV plants and technologies, requiring only the availability of historical SCADA data, fault taxonomy and inverter electrical datasheet.

In contrast to normal cells, tumor cells of multiple entities overexpress the Heat Shock Protein 70 (Hsp70) not only in the cytosol, but also present it on their plasma membrane in a tumor-specific manner. Furthermore, membrane-Hsp70 positive tumor cells actively release Hsp70 into lipid microvesicles termed exosomes into the blood. Due to conformational changes of Hsp70 in the lipid environment, most commercially available antibodies fail to detect membrane-bound and exosomal Hsp70. To fill this gap and to assess the role of exosomal Hsp70 in the circulation as a potential tumor biomarker, we established the novel complete Hsp70 (compHsp70) sandwich ELISA using two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that are able to recognize both, free and lipid-associated Hsp70 on the cell surface of viable tumor cells and exosomes. The epitopes of the mAbs cmHsp70.1 (aa 451-461) and cmHsp70.2 (aa 614-623) that are conserved among different species reside in the substrate-binding domain of Hsp70, with measured affinities of 0.42 nM and 0.44 nM, respectively. Validation of the compHsp70 ELISA revealed a high intra- and inter-assay precision, linearity in a concentration range of 1.56 to 25 ng/ml, high recovery rates of ‘spiked’ liposomal Hsp70 (>84%), comparable values between human serum and plasma samples, and no interference by food intake or age of the donors. Hsp70 concentrations in the circulation of patients with glioblastoma, squamous cell or adeno non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) at diagnosis were significantly higher than those of healthy volunteers. Hsp70 concentrations dropped concomitantly with the decrease in viable tumor mass on irradiation of patients with approximately 20 Gy (range 18 – 22.5 Gy) or after completion of radiotherapy (60 - 70 Gy). In summary, the compHsp70 ELISA presented herein provides a highly sensitive and reliable tool for measuring free and exosomal Hsp70 in liquid biopsies of tumor patients, levels of which can be used as a predictive tumor-specific biomarker, risk assessment and for monitoring therapeutic outcome.

Remaining service life (RSL) of pavement, as a sign of future pavement performance, has always received growing attention from pavement engineers. The RSL describes the time from the moment of pavement inspection until such a time when a major repair or reconstruction is required. The conventional approach to determining RSL involves using non-destructive tests. These tests, in addition to being costly, interfere with traffic flow and compromise users' safety. In this paper, surface distresses of pavement have been used to estimate the pavement’s RSL in order to eliminate the aforementioned problems and challenges. To implement the proposed theory, 105 flexible pavement segments were taken from Shahrood-Damghan Highway (Highway 44) in Iran. For each pavement segment, the type, severity, and extent of surface damage and pavement condition index (PCI) were determined. The pavement RSL was then estimated using non-destructive tests include Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). After completing the dataset, the modeling was conducted to predict RSL using three techniques include Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Regression Optimized by Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (SVR-FOA), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). All three techniques estimated the RSL of the pavement by selecting the PCI as input. The Correlation Coefficient (CC), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Scattered Index (SI), and Willmott’s Index of agreement (WI) criteria were used to examine the performance of the three techniques adopted in this study. In the end, it was found that GEP with values of 0.874, 0.598, 0.601, and 0.807 for CC, SI, NSE, and WI criteria, respectively, had the highest accuracy in predicting the RSL of pavement.

ABSTRACT Background It is important to be able to predict, for each individual patient, the likelihood of later metastatic occurrence, because the prediction can guide treatment plans tailored to a specific patient to prevent metastasis and to help avoid under- or over-treatment. Deep Neural Network (DNN) learning, commonly referred to as deep learning, has become popular due to its success in image detection and prediction, but questions such as whether deep learning outperforms other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data remain unanswered. Grid search has been introduced to deep learning hyperparameter tunning for the purpose of improving its prediction performance, but the effect of grid search on other machine learning methods are under-studied. In this research, we take the empirical approach to study the performance of deep learning and other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data to predict the occurrence of breast cancer metastasis (BCM) 5, 10, or 15-years after the initial treatment. We developed DNN models as well as models using 9 other machine learning methods including Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), LASSO, Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forrest (RF), AdaBoost (ADB), and XGBoost (XGB). We used grid search to tune hyperparameters for all methods. We then compared the deep learning models to the models trained using the 9 other machine learning methods. Results Based on the mean test AUC results, DNN ranks 6th, 4th, and 3rd when predicting 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year BCM respectively, out of 10 machine learning methods. The top performing methods in predicting 5-year BCM are XGB(1^st), RF(2^nd), and KNN(3^rd). For predicting 10-year BCM the top performers are XGB (1^st), RF(2^nd), and NB(3^rd) . Finally, for 15-year BCM the top performers are SVM (1^st), LR and LASSO (tied for 2^nd), and DNN (3^rd). The ensemble methods RF and XGB outperform other methods when data are less balanced, while SVM, LR, LASSO, and DNN outperform other methods when data are more balanced. Our statistical testing results show that at a significance level of 0.05 DNN overall performs no worse than other machine learning methods when predicting 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year BCM. Conclusions Our results show that deep learning with grid search overall performs at least as well as other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data. It is interesting to note that some of the other machine learning methods such as XGB, RF, and SVM are very strong competitors of DNN when incorporating grid search. It is also worth noting that the computation time required to do grid search with DNN is way more than that required to do grid search with the other 9 machine learning methods.

Pathogenicity is unknown for the majority of human gene variants. For prioritization of sequenced somatic and germline mutation variants, in silico approaches can be utilized. In this study, 84 million non-synonymous Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs) in the human coding genome were annotated using consensus Variant Effect Prediction (cVEP) method. An algorithm, implemented as a stacked ensemble of supervised learners, performed combination of the 39 functional, conservation mutation impact scores from dbNSFP4.0. Adding gene indispensability score, accounting for differences in the pathogenicities of the variants in the essential and the mutation-tolerant genes, improved the predictions. For each SNV the consensus combination gives either a continuous-value pathogenicity score, or a categorical score in five classes: pathogenic, likely pathogenic, uncertain significance, likely benign, benign. The provided class database is aimed for direct use in clinical practice. The trained prediction models were 5-fold cross-validated on the evidence-based categorical annotations from the ClinVar database. The rankings of the scores based on their ability to predict pathogenicity were obtained. A two-step strategy using the rankings, scores and class annotations is suggested for filtering and prioritization of the human exome mutations in clinical and biological applications of NGS technology.

Soil hydraulic properties are often derived indirectly, i.e. computed from easily available soil properties with pedotransfer functions (PTFs), when those are needed for catchment, regional or continental scale applications. When predicted soil hydraulic parameters are used for the modelling of the state and flux of water in soils, uncertainty of the computed values can provide more detailed information when drawing conclusions. The aim of this study was to update the previously published European PTFs (Tóth et al., 2015, euptf v1.4.0) by providing prediction uncertainty calculation built into the transfer functions. The new set of algorithms was derived for point predictions of soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head), wilting point (-15.000 cm matric potential head), plant available water, and saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curve. The minimum set of input properties for the prediction is soil depth and sand, silt and clay content. The effect of including additional information like soil organic carbon content, bulk density, calcium carbonate content, pH and cation exchange capacity were extensively analysed. The PTFs were derived adopting the random forest method. The advantage of the new PTFs is that they i) provide information about prediction uncertainty, ii) are significantly more accurate than the euptfv1, iii) can be applied for more predictor variable combinations than the euptfv1, 32 instead of 5, and iv) are now also derived for the prediction of water content at -100 cm matric potential head and plant available water content.

In crystal structure prediction, Newton's second law can always be applied to particles (atoms or ions) in a cell to determine their positions. However the values of the period vectors (crystal cell edge vectors) should be determined as well. Here we applied the dynamical equations of period vectors derived recently based on Newton's laws (doi:/10.1139/cjp-2014-0518) for that purpose, where the period vectors are driven by the imbalance between the internal and external pressures/stresses. For equilibrium states, they became equations of state, which essentially turn out the equilibrium conditions of crystals from mechanical point of view. For external pressure, by ignoring some effects, they reduced to the Mie-Gruneisen equation. Since the internal stress has both a full kinetic energy term and a full interaction term, the influences of both external temperature and stress/pressure on crystal structures can be calculated, then thermodynamical properties and processes were presented. Contrary to usual ideas, the equations show that pure harmonic vibrating phonons can result in thermal expansion in crystals when the external temperature is changed. Finally, crystal system collapse due to temperature and/or stress/pressure change was discussed.

Regarding the high efficiency of metaheuristic techniques in energy performance analysis, this paper scrutinizes and compares five novel optimizers, namely biogeography-based optimization (BBO), invasive weed optimization (IWO), social spider algorithm (SOSA), shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA), and harmony search algorithm (HSA) for the early prediction of cooling load in residential buildings. The algorithms are coupled with a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to adjust the neural parameters that connect the CL with the influential factors. The complexity of the models is optimized by means of a trial-and-error effort, and it was shown that the BBO and IWO need more crowded spaces for fulfilling the optimization. The results revealed that the internal parameters (i.e., biases and weights) suggested by the BBO generate the most reliable MLP for both analyzing and generalizing the CL pattern (with nearly 93 and 92% correlations, respectively). Followed by this, the IWO emerged as the second powerful optimizer with mean absolute errors of 1.8632 and 1.9110 in the training and testing phases. Therefore, the BBO-MLP and IWO-MLP can be reliably used for accurate analysis of the CL in future projects.

To date, most people prefer softer and stickier rice with high glycaemic index, which has led to the study of the association between the dietary fibre profile and the textural properties to balance between the eating quality, and health benefits. A slight variation was observed in the dietary fibre composition among rice varieties with different amylose content. The percentage of insoluble dietary fibre (IDF) in whole grain rice varied from 1.65–4.32 while the percentage of soluble dietary fibre (SDF) ranged from 0.26–1.37. We demonstrated that the SDF/IDF ratio was higher in soft texture rice with low amylose and it shared a negative correlation with hardness and chewiness of cooked whole grain rice determined by a texture analyser, which suggested that the distribution of SDF throughout the rice endosperm influences the reduction of the hardness of cooked rice. According to the importance of dietary fibre, we proposed a simple linear regression method to estimate the amount of IDF and total dietary fibre with r = 0.97 and 0.92, respectively, of whole grain rice based on its bran layer, determined by the alternative alkaline method. Furthermore, low amylose rice has higher content of -glucan and pectin, which are classified as soluble dietary fibre, than high amylose rice. The percentage of -glucan and pectin in whole grain rice ranged from 0.03 and 0.07 respectively, for high amylose rice to 0.14 and 0.27 respectively for low amylose rice,

For the in-house validation of a droplet digital PCR method, a factorial experimental design was implemented. This design serves different purposes. On the one hand, it is an efficient design in relation to the workload involved in achieving a desirable level of reliability of variance estimates. On the other hand, it allows a partitioning of total variance into different components, thus providing information regarding the dominant sources of random variation. The statistical modelling reflects the actual measurement mechanism, establishing relationships between nominal target DNA copies per well, the range of variation of copy numbers per droplet, probability of detection values, and estimated numbers of copies.

Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control the renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. Capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI and KGE parameters. It was concluded that WOA optimization algorithm can improve prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.

Recently natural gas (NG) global market attracted much attention in case it is cleaner than oil, and simultaneously in most regions is cheaper than renewable energy sources. However, price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, emerging unconventional resources, energy security challenges, and shipment are some of the forces that made the NG market more dynamic and complex. From a policy-making perspective, it is vital to uncover demand-side future trends. This paper proposed an intelligent forecasting model to forecast NG global demand, however investigating a multi-dimensional purified input vector. The model starts with a data mining (DM) step to purify input features, identify the best time lags, and to pre-process selected input vector. Then a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) which equipped with genetic optimizer is applied to set up ANN’s characteristics. Among 13 available input features, six features (e.g. Alternative and Nuclear Energy, CO2 Emissions, GDP per Capita, Urban Population, Natural Gas Production, Oil Consumption) selected as the most critical feature via the DM step. Then, the hybrid prediction model is designed to extrapolate the consumption of future trends. The proposed model overcomes competitive models refer to different error based evaluation statistics. Besides, as the model proposed the best input feature set, results compared to the model which used the raw input set, with no DM purification process.

The accurate prediction of heat load profiles with a daily resolution is required for a broad range of applications such as potential studies, design, or predictive operation of heating systems. If the heat demand of a consumer is mainly caused by (production) processes independent of the ambient temperature, existing load profile prediction methods fail. To close this gap, this study develops two ex post machine learning models for the prediction of the heat demand with a daily resolution. The selected input features are commonly available to each consumer connected to public natural gas and electricity grids or operating an energy monitoring system: Ambient temperature, weekday, electricity consumption, and heat consumption of the last seven days directly before the predicted day. The study’s database covers electricity and natural gas consumption load profiles from 82 German consumers over a period of two years. Electricity and heat consumption correlate strongly with individual patterns for many consumers. Both, shallow and deep learning algorithms are evaluated. The highest accuracy is achieved by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model with a median of R² of 0.94. The ex post model architecture makes the model suitable for automated anomaly detection in energy monitoring systems.

This work presents an analytical methodology to predict meat juiciness (discriminant semi-quantitative analysis using groups of intervals of intramuscular fat) and intramuscular fat (regression analysis) in Longissimus thoracis et lumborum (LTL) muscle of Bísaro pigs using as independent variables the animal carcass weight and parameters from color and image analysis. These are non-invasive and non-destructive techniques which allow development of rapid, easy and inexpensive methodologies to evaluate pork meat quality in a slaughterhouse. The proposed predictive supervised multivariate models were non-linear. Discriminant mixture analysis to evaluate meat juiciness by classified samples into three groups—0.6 to 1.1%; 1.25 to 1.5%; and, greater than 1.5%. The obtained model allowed 100% of correct classifications (92% in cross-validation with seven-folds with five repetitions). Polynomial support vector machine regression to determine the intramuscular fat presented R2 and RMSE values of 0.88 and 0.12, respectively in cross-validation with seven-folds with five repetitions. This quantitative model (model’s polynomial kernel optimized to degree of three with a scale factor of 0.1 and a cost value of one) presented R2 and RSE values of 0.999 and 0.04, respectively. The overall predictive results demonstrated the relevance of photographic image and color measurements of the muscle to evaluate the intramuscular fat, rarther than the usual time-consuming and expensive chemical analysis.

Pasmo (Septoria linicola) is a fungal disease causing major losses in seed yield and quality, and stem fibre quality in flax. Pasmo resistance (PR) is quantitative and has low heritability. To improve PR breeding efficiency, the accuracy of genomic prediction (GP) was evaluated using a diverse worldwide core collection of 370 accessions. Four marker sets, including three defined by 500, 134, and 67 previously identified quantitative trait loci (QTL) and one of 52,347 PR-correlated genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms, were used to build ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) models using pasmo severity (PS) data collected from field experiments performed during five consecutive years. With five-fold random cross-validation, GP accuracy as high as 0.92 was obtained from the models using the 500 QTL when the average PS was used as the training dataset. GP accuracy increased with training population size, reaching values >0.9 with training population size greater than 185. Linear regression of the observed PS with the number of positive-effect QTL in accessions provided an alternative GP approach with an accuracy of 0.86. The results demonstrate the GP models based on marker information from all identified QTL and the 5-year PS average is highly effective for PR prediction.

Accurate forecasts of ocean waves energy can not only reduce costs for investment but it is also essential for management and operation of electrical power. This paper presents an innovative approach based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the power generation of an economical wave energy converter named “Searaser”. The data for analyzing is provided by collecting the experimental data from another study and the exerted data from numerical simulation of searaser. The simulation is done with Flow-3D software which has high capability in analyzing the fluid solid interactions. The lack of relation between wind speed and output power in previous studies needs to be investigated in this field. Therefore, in this study the wind speed and output power are related with a LSTM method. Moreover, it can be inferred that the LSTM Network is able to predict power in terms of height more accurately and faster than the numerical solution in a field of predicting. The network output figures show a great agreement and the root mean square is 0.49 in the mean value related to the accuracy of LSTM method. Furthermore, the mathematical relation between the generated power and wave height was introduced by curve fitting of the power function to the result of LSTM method.

The concept of distributed generation has made photovoltaic an integral source of energy in smart grid systems, especially in peer-to-peer energy trading frameworks that exploit excess power to fulfill the energy requirements of consumers in cost-efficient and eco-friendly manner. It is believed that P2P energy trading will dominate a significant portion of research in forthcoming power generation systems due to the excessive rise of energy demands across the globe. Despite a plethora of studies on energy optimization solutions in P2P trading, minimizing nanogrid energy trading cost and efficient energy sharing between consumers and prosumers are deemed among the challenging problems. This study overcomes essential issues overlooked by the contemporary P2P energy trading models by introducing a predictive optimization-oriented nanogrid energy trading model. The proposed study encompasses two stages: (1) predictive optimization model which harnesses BD-LSTM-based forecasted energy parameters (energy load, energy consumption, and PV generation) that are later incorporated in PSO-enabled objective function to reduce nanogrid trading cost, (2) optimal energy sharing plan is devised to decide the role of nanogrids as prosumers or consumers by emphasizing the use of PV-produced energy. The proposed model is validated on the case study containing nanogrid houses data. The simulation provides detailed experiments by comparing the energy demand and response using the proposed energy sharing model. The outcomes yield that the energy sharing plan holds a significant potential to fulfill maximum energy requirements of nanogrid house in P2P cluster and significantly reduces the energy cost compared to grid.

An accurate outbreak prediction of COVID-19 can successfully help to get insight into the spread and consequences of infectious diseases. Recently, machine learning (ML) based prediction models have been successfully employed for the prediction of the disease outbreak. The present study aimed to engage an artificial neural network-integrated by grey wolf optimizer for COVID-19 outbreak predictions by employing the Global dataset. Training and testing processes have been performed by time-series data related to January 22 to September 15, 2020 and validation has been performed by time-series data related to September 16 to October 15, 2020. Results have been evaluated by employing mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and correlation coefficient (r) values. ANN-GWO provided a MAPE of 6.23, 13.15 and 11.4% for training, testing and validating phases, respectively. According to the results, the developed model could successfully cope with the prediction task.

Lithium-ion batteries with improved energy densities have made understanding the Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI) generation mechanisms that cause mechanical, thermal, and chemical failures more complicated. SEI processes reduce battery capacity and power. Thus, a review of this area's understanding is important. It is essential to know how batteries degrade in EVs to estimate battery lifespan as it goes, predict, and minimize losses, and determine the ideal time for a replacement. Lithium-ion batteries used in EVs mainly suffer two types of degradation: calendar degradation and cycling degradation. Despite the existence of several existing works in the literature, several aspects of battery degradation remain unclear or have not been analyzed in detail. This work presents a systematic review of existing works in the literature. The results of the present investigation provide insight into the complex relationships among various factors affecting battery degradation mechanisms. Specifically, this systematic review examined the effects of time, side reactions, temperature fluctuations, high charge/discharge rates, depth of discharge, mechanical stress, thermal stress, and the voltage relationship on battery performance and longevity. The results revealed that these factors interact in complex ways to influence the degradation mechanisms of batteries. For example, high charge currents and deep discharges were found to accelerate degradation, while low temperatures and moderate discharge depths were shown to be beneficial for battery longevity. Additionally, the results showed that the relationship between cell voltage and State-of-Charge (SOC) plays a critical role in determining the rate of degradation. Overall, these findings have important implications for the design and operation of battery systems, as they highlight the need to carefully manage a range of factors to maximize battery performance and longevity. The result is an analysis of the main articles published in this field in recent years. This work aims to present new knowledge about fault detection, diagnosis, and management of lithium-ion batteries based on battery degradation concepts. The new knowledge is presented and discussed in a structured and comprehensive way.

In recent years, research has focused on generating mechanisms to assess the levels of subjects' cognitive workload when performing various activities that demand high concentration levels, such as driving a vehicle. These mechanisms have implemented several tools to analyze cognitive workload where the electroencephalographic (EEG) signals are the most used due to its high precision. However, one of the main challenges in the EEG signals implementing is finding the appropriate information to identify cognitive states. Here we show a new feature selection model for pattern recognition using information from EEG signals based on machine learning techniques called GALoRIS. GALoRIS combines Genetic Algorithms and Logistic Regression to create a new fitness function that identifies and selects the critical EEG features that contribute to recognizing high and low cognitive workload and structures a new dataset capable of optimizing the model's predictive process. We found that GALoRIS identifies data related to high and low cognitive workload of subjects while driving a vehicle using information extracted from multiple EEG signals, reducing the original dataset by more than 50%, maximizing the model's predictive capacity-achieving a precision rate greater than 90%.

Predicting trip purpose from comprehensive and continuous smart card data is beneficial for transport and city planners in investigating travel behaviours and urban mobility. Here we propose a framework, ActivityNET, using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict passengers’ trip purpose from smart card data and Points-of-Interest (POIs) data. The feasibility of the framework is demonstrated in two phases. Phase I focuses on extracting activities from individuals’ daily travel patterns from smart card data and combining them with POIs using the proposed ‘activity-POIs consolidation algorithm’. Phase II feeds the extracted features into an artificial neural network (ANN) with multiple scenarios and predicts trip purpose under primary activities (home and work) and secondary activities (entertainment, eating, shopping, child drop-offs/pick-ups and part-time work) with high accuracy. As a case study, the proposed ActivityNET framework is applied in Greater London and illustrates a robust competence to predict trip purpose. The promising outcomes demonstrate that the cost-effective framework offers high predictive accuracy and valuable insights into transport planning.

Different machine learning models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to predict the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best machine model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best ML methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 122.6·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 113.6·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 201.3·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 209.4·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

The incidence of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) in the Arab world, particularly, oil and gas rich Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) countries has more than doubled in the last twenty years. Therefore, there is a dire need for careful systematic familial cohort studies, especially in high-risk populations. Several immunogenetic factors affect the pathogenesis of the disease. Genes in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) account for the major genetic susceptibility to the disease. The triggering agents initiate disease onset by destruction of pancreatic β-cells. The autoantibodies against glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), insulinoma antigen-2 (IA-2A), insulin (IAA), and zinc transporter-8 (ZnT-8A) comprise the most reliable biomarkers for T1D in both children and adults. Although three of the GCC countries, namely Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are among the top 10 countries with high incidence rate of T1D, no proper diagnostic and prediction tools were applied in the region. Understanding the disease sequelae in a homogenous gene pool with high consanguinity in the GCC could help solve the challenges in understanding pathogenesis, as well as hasten the prevention of T1D. Arab states must incorporate T1D predictive and intervention policies on a war-footing basis to minimize the burden of this serious disease.

Currently, the district heating (DH) in Poland is facing many challenges. The business model used hitherto was very simple—in most cities, heating plants produced heat, and centralized heating systems supplied the "product" at a price approved annually by the president of the Energy Regulatory Office (URE). However, recent years have brought significant changes on the market. EU regulations force the elimination of old coal-fired plants that were still built in the Polish People's Republic (PRL), moreover, high prices of CO2 emission allowances aggravate the financial situation of companies. In addition, in the heating sector, the trend observed in the power sector is becoming increasingly visible—limiting the role of large sources in favor of energy generated locally, closer to the customer. One of the biggest challenges is achieving the targets set by the EU for the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the heating sector. The war in Ukraine and problems with the supply of coal and gas are an additional impulse to turn to RES. Thus, the development of sustainable and innovative solutions for energy production and supply at the level of urban networks is currently one of the main technical challenges. The purpose of the paper is to present the current situation and perspectives of development of district heating systems in Poland with a view to the status of district heating in the world, and some deeper insight into European conditions. The review presents energy sources with particular emphasis on renewable energy sources (RES) and their cogeneration for heat production. The examples of existing heating network solutions using renewable energy sources, based on the selected published case studies, are also discussed.

Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect.

Research in brain stroke prediction is very crucial as it can lead to the development of early detection techniques and interventions that can enhance the prognosis for stroke victims. Early detection and intervention can help to minimise the damage caused by a stroke, reduce the risk of long-term complications, and enhance the general quality of life for people who have survived a stroke. Additionally, research in stroke prediction can help to identify risk factors and improve understanding of the underlying causes of stroke, which can lead to the development of better prevention strategies. Research on brain stroke prediction is ongoing and has led to the development of various models and tools for predicting the risk of stroke and detecting it early. However, the implementation and use of these tools in clinical practise vary depending on several factors, such as the availability of resources, the specific healthcare system, and the level of awareness and acceptance of these tools among healthcare providers and patients. In general, risk prediction models may be used to quickly identify individuals at high risk of stroke and target them for preventive interventions, such as lifestyle changes, medication management, and screenings. Early detection tools can be used to quickly identify stroke symptoms and initiate appropriate treatment, which can improve outcomes for stroke patients. However, it is important to note that research and development of these models and tools are ongoing, and their use in clinical practise is constantly evaluated and updated. It may take time for these tools to be widely adopted in clinical practise and to see their real-world impact. This research paper focuses on predicting brain stroke occurrence using a range of machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Bernoulli Naive Bayes (BNB), and a Voting Classifier. The main emphasis of this research was to compare the effectiveness of oversampling techniques, as the data was significantly imbalanced. We have used evaluation metrics in this research to assess the accuracy, precision, recall, and other key performance indicators of a model's predictions. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC), minority class accuracy, and majority class accuracy were used to assess the approaches.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a versatile term that is a conclusive remedy to solve the problem using past rational data after deep contemplation using these terms i-e basic statistics, carving data, familiarity with common AI algorithms. Seafood especially tiger prawn export as a busi-ness will provide enormous foreign exchange to any country if the farmers overcome the corre-lated vulnerabilities in prawn farming. This research is elucidating lacking in Tiger prawn (TP) farming like curbing of Oxygen, pH, water temperature, and nutrients, etc. Moreover, hatchery statistics in terms of juveniles will depict this study's clear picture of curbed aquaculture. For normative decisions, the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) is used. The problem which has been faced by local prawn farmers that there is a stagnant TP growth in ponds, the reason is the predominant sensitivity factor in TP. For this reason, they need indemnification of thirteen fac-tors with natural resources to get the plausible results to get calmness in their lives. This study will solely focus on the TP growth model, and the monitoring effect will be established by the Artificial Intelligence algorithm. This study will employ the AHP, 0-1 scaling method, data cura-tion techniques, and ecological statistics. The life of Tiger Prawn (TP) depends upon these factors mainly, a) Physical and b) Chemical parameters. Physical parameters contain environment (E) provided to TP like season (S) and temperature (T) etc. whereas the quality of Ammonia NH3 (N) from fish waste, Oxygen level (O), and water quality hard & soft (W) lies in chemicals do-main. This research will Elucidate the factors which cause conceptual muddles in the aquamarine life of TP, for this reason, Statistical tools will assess the current result, forecast the gap. AHP will analyze the domain inputs, circumspect ramification which will depict visceral factors, later results depict which pond suits the TP. In curtail, these factors will be curbed to improve the growth of TP in a control conditioned environment.

A correctly obtained Land-use/land-cover (LULC) prediction map is essential to under-standing and assessing future patterns. In the study, the LULC map of Urmia/Iran in 2030 was produced using two different prediction methods CA-Markov and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In general, the study followed a methodology consisting of three steps. In the first steps, Landsat satellite images acquired in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with maximum likelihood algorithm and LULC maps were prepared for each year. In the second stage, to investigate the LULC prediction methods' validation (CA-Markov and ANN) the LULC prediction map of 2020 was produced using the LULC map of 2000 and 2010; In this step, the predicted LULC map of 2020 and the actual LULC map of 2020 were evaluated by correctness, completeness and quality indexes. Finally, The LULC map for 2030 was prepared using all two algorithms and the change map was extracted. The results show that the area of soil and vegetation decreased, and built-up regions increased during the research period. The methods validation results show that the two algorithms are much closer to each other. Nevertheless, in general, ANN has the highest completeness (96.21%) and quality (93.8%) and CA-Markov the most correctness (96.47). This study shows that the CA-Markov algorithm is most successful in predicting the future that had larger areas and a higher percentage in the region (urban and vegetation cover) and the ANN algorithm in predicting phenomena that had smaller levels with fewer percentages (soil and rock).

Three-dimensional (3D) facies and petrophysical models were generated from previously published data of carbonate strata in the Dam Formation (eastern Saudi Arabia) to quantitatively investigate, describe, understand, model, and predict the permeability anisotropy of tidal flat carbonate within a sequence stratigraphic framework. The resulting 3D models were used to conduct fluid flow simulations to demonstrate how permeability anisotropy influences the production of hydrocarbons and ultimately affects decisions concerning future drilling in the exploration and development of carbonate reservoirs that have tidal flat strata. The constructed 3D facies model consists of four lithofacies associations, two of which were grain-dominated associations and two of which were mud-dominated associations. These lithofacies associations varied spatially in four reservoir zones (zones 1 to 4), which represent two fourth-order sequences in the uppermost part of the Dam Formation. Zones 1 and 3 consist of transgressive parasequences, and zones 2 and 4 consist of the regressive parasequences of these sequences. The 3D porosity and permeability models have a coherent match with the distribution of the lithofacies and the stratigraphic framework of the Dam Formation. The results suggested that the permeability anisotropy in zones 1 and 3 is controlled by the occurrence of the grain-dominated lithofacies associated with tidal flat channels. This lithofacies association overlies the sequence boundaries of sequences 1 and 3, forms reservoir bodies with relatively high permeability values, and is elongated perpendicular to the shoreline of the depositional environments. In contrast, permeability anisotropy in zones 2 and 4 is thought to be controlled by the occurrence of the grain-dominated lithofacies associated with the oolitic shoal. This lithofacies association overlies the maximum flooding surface of sequences 2 and 4, forms reservoir bodies with relatively high permeability values, and is elongated parallel to the shoreline of the depositional environments. Fluid flow simulation results suggested that the trend in hydrocarbon production from the constructed 3D models depends on permeability anisotropy in each reservoir zone. Thus, recognizing trends in permeability anisotropy, which might be predicted using sequences stratigraphy, could help to identify potential areas for future drilling.

Air passenger traffic prediction is crucial for the effective operation of civil aviation airports. Despite some progress in this field, the prediction accuracy and methods need further improvement. This paper proposes an integrated approach to the prediction of air passenger index as follows. Firstly, the air passenger index is defined and classified by the K-means clustering method. Based on the mutual information (MI) principle, the information entropy is used to analyze and select the key influencing factors of air passenger travel. By incorporating the MI principle into the support vector regression (SVR) framework, this paper presents an innovative MI-SVR machine learning model used to predict the air passenger index. Finally, the proposed model is validated by passenger throughput data of the Shanghai Pudong International Airport, China. The experimental results prove the model feasibility and effectiveness by comparing them with conventional methods, such as ARIMA, LSTM, and other machine learning models, outperformed by the MI-SVR model. Besides, it is shown that the prediction effect of each model could be improved by introducing influencing factors based on mutual information. The main findings are considered instrumental to the airport operation and air traffic optimization.

The evaluation of geometric defects is necessary in order to maintain the integrity of structures over time. These assessments are designed to detect damages of structures and ideally help inspectors to estimate the remaining life of structures. Current methodologies for monitoring structural systems, while providing useful information about the current state of a structure, are limited in the monitoring of defects over time and in linking them to predictive simulation. This paper presents a new approach to the predictive modeling of geometric defects. A combination of segmented from point clouds are parametrized using the convex hull algorithm to extract features from detected defects, and a stochastic dynamic model is then adapted to these features to model the evolution of the hull over time. Describing a defect in terms of its parameterized hull enables consistent temporal tracking for predictive purposes, while implicitly reducing data dimensionality and complexity as well. In this study, 2D point clouds analogous to information derived from point clouds were first generated over simulated life-cycles. The evolutions of point cloud hull parameterizations were modeled as stochastic dynamical processes via autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vectorized autoregression (VAR) and compared against ground truth. The results indicate that this convex hull approach provides consistent and accurate representations of defect evolution across a range of defect topologies and is reasonably robust to noisy measurements, however assumptions regarding the underlying dynamical process play a significant the role in predictive accuracy. The results were then validated on experimental data from fatigue testing with high accuracy. Longer term, the results of this work will support finite element model updating for predictive analysis of structural capacity.

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

This study investigates the interpretability of machine learning (ML) models applied to cumulative damage prediction during a sequence of earthquakes, emphasizing the use of techniques such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), Accumulated Local Effects (ALE), Permutation and Impurity-based technique. The research explores the cumulative damage during seismic sequences, aiming to identify critical predictors and assess their influence on the cumulative damage. Moreover, the predictors contribution in respect with the range of final damage is evaluated. Nonlinear time history analyses are applied to extract the seismic response of an eight-story Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame. The regression problem’s input variables are divided into two distinct physical classes: pre-existing damage from the initial seismic event and seismic parameters representing the intensity of the subsequent earthquake, expressed by Park and Ang damage index (DIPA) and Intensity Measures (IMs), respectively. The study offers a comprehensive review of cutting-edge ML methods, hyperparameter tuning, and ML method comparisons. A LightGBM model emerges as the most efficient, among 15 different ML methods examined, with critical predictors for final damage being the initial damage caused by the first shock and the IMs of the subsequent shock: IFVF and SIH. The importance of these predictors is supported by feature importance analysis and local/global explanation methods, enhancing the interpretability and practical utility of the developed model.

Intelligent algorithms are recently used in the optimization process in chemical engineering and application of multiphase flows such as bubbling flow. This overview of modeling can be a great replacement with complex numerical methods or very time-consuming and disruptive measurement experimental process. In this study, we develop the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method for mapping inputs and outputs together and understand the behavior of the fluid flow from other output parameters of the bubble column reactor. Neural cells can fully learn the process in their memory and after the training stage, the fuzzy structure predicts the multiphase flow data. Four inputs such as x coordinate, y coordinate, z coordinate, and air superficial velocity and one output such as pressure gradient are considered in the learning process of the ANFIS method. During the learning process, the different number of the membership function, type of membership functions and the number of inputs are examined to achieve the intelligent algorithm with high accuracy. The results show that as the number of inputs increases the accuracy of the ANFIS method rises up to almost for all cases, while the increment in the number of rules has a effect on the intelligence of artificial algorithm. This finding shows that the density of neural objects or higher input parameters enables the moded for better understanding. We also proposed a new evaluation of data in the bubble column reactor by mapping inputs and outputs and shuffle all parameters together to understand the behaviour of the multiphase flow as a function of either inputs or outputs. This new process of mapping inputs and outputs data provides a framework to fully understand the flow in the fluid domain in a short time of fuzzy structure calculation.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a very aggressive malignant brain tumor with the vast majority of patients surviving less than 12 months (Short-term survivors [STS]). Only around 2% of patients survive more than 36 months (Long-term survivors [LTS]). Studying these extreme survival groups might help in better understanding GBM biology. This work aims at exploring application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups(STS, LTS). We used age and gene expression profiles belonging to 249 samples from publicly available datasets. 10 Machine learning methods have been implemented and compared for their performances. Hyperparameter tuned random forest model performed best with accuracy of 80% (AUC of 74% and F1_score of 85%). The performance of this model is validated on external test data of 16 samples. The model predicted the true survival group for 15 samples achieving an accuracy of 93.75%. This classification model is deployed as a web tool GlioSurvML. The top 1500 features which retained classification efficiency (Accuracy of 80%, AUC of 74%) were studied for enriched pathways and disease-causal biomarker associations using the HumanPSD^TM database. We identified 199 genes as possible biomarkers of GBM and/or similar diseases (like Glioma, astrocytoma, and others). 57 of these genes are shown to be differentially expressed across survival groups and/or have impact on survival. This work demonstrates the application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups of GBM.

Lung cancer is known as lung carcinoma. It is a disease which is malignant tumor leading to the uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissue. Lung Cancer disease is one of the most prominent cause of death in all over world. Early detection of this disease can assist medical care unit as well as physicians to provide counter measures to the patients. The objective of this paper is to approach an automated tool that takes influential causes of lung cancer as input and detect patients with higher probabilities of being affected by this disease. A neural network classifier accompanied by cross-validation technique is proposed in this paper as a predictive tool. Later, this proposed method is compared with another baseline classifier Gradient Boosting Classifier in order to justify the prediction performance.

Natural products comprise a rich reservoir for innovative drug leads and are a constant source of bioactive compounds. To find pharmacological targets for new or already known natural products using modern computer-aided methods is a current endeavor in drug discovery. Nature’s treasures, however, could be used more effectively. Yet, reliable pipelines for large scale target prediction of natural products are still rare. We have developed an in silico workflow consisting of four independent, stand-alone target prediction tools and evaluated its performance on dihydrochalcones (DHCs) – a well-known class of natural products. Thereby, we revealed four previously unreported protein targets for DHCs, namely 5-lipoxygenase, cyclooxygenase-1, 17β- hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 3, and aldo-keto reductase 1C3. Moreover, we provide a thorough strategy on how to perform computational target prediction and guidance on using the respective tools.

Understanding the relationships between land cover/urban structure patterns and air pollutants is key to sustainable urban planning and development. In this study, we employ a mobile monitoring method to collect PM_2.5 and BC data in the city of Philadelphia, PA during the summer of 2019 and apply the Structure of Urban Landscapes (STURLA) methodology to examine relationships between urban structure and atmospheric pollution. We find that, while PM_2.5 and BC vary by STURLA class, many of the differences in pollutant concentrations between classes are not significant. However, we also find that the proportions in which STURLA components are present throughout the urban landscape can be used to predict urban air pollution. Among frequently sampled STURLA classes, gpl hosted the highest PM_2.5 concentrations on average (16.60 _± 4.29 µg/m³), while tgbwp hosted the highest BC concentrations (2.31 _± 1.94 µg/m³). Furthermore, STURLA combined with machine learning modeling was able to correlate PM_2.5 (R²= 0.68, RMSE 2.82 µg/m³) and BC (R² = 0.64, RMSE 0.75 µg/m³) concentrations with the urban landscape and spatially interpolate concentrations where sampling did not take place. These results demonstrate the efficacy of the STURLA methodology in modeling relationships between air pollution and land cover/urban structure patterns.

Miscanthus holds a great potential in the frame of the bioeconomy and yield prediction can help improving Miscanthus logistic supply chain. Breeding programs in several countries are attempting to produce high-yielding Miscanthus hybrids better adapted to different climates and end-uses. Multispectral images acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Italy and in the UK in 2021 and 2022 were used to investigate the feasibility of high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of novel Miscanthus hybrids for yield prediction and crop traits estimation. An intercalibration procedure was performed using simulated data from the PROSAIL model to link vegetation indices (VIs) derived from two different multispectral sensors. Random forest algorithm estimated with good accuracy yield traits (light interception, plant height, green leaf biomass and standing biomass) using VIs time series and predicted yield using peak descriptor derived from VIs time series with 2.3 Mg DM ha-1 of RMSE. The study demonstrates the potential of UAVs multispectral in HTP applications and in yield prediction for providing important information needed to increase sustainable biomass production.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

Life evolved in an euxinic world with subsequent oxic 'invasion' leading to two parallel but interconnected biospheres, hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) exemplify these worlds respectively. Their concentration gradients have informational value in meromictic lakes. Similarly, it is posited, there exists a whole body chemocline in humans in which the two molecules form an inversely coupled oxic/sulphidic oscillator (OSO). The OSO is hormetic and characterised by a range of amplitudes and frequencies in health. Deviations from its baseline profile heralds the onset of SIRS before the appearance of clinical signs. Loss of oscillator status and transition to a steady state causes widespread intercellular and inter-organ communication failure presaging multi-organ dysfunction. The salient clinico-pathophysiological features of SIRS of any aetiology are emergent phenomena related to the OSO profile. Extent of recovery of organ function will mirror the recovery of the OSO profile thereby providing a tool to predict outcomes in SIRS.