Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations

Version 1 : Received: 3 October 2021 / Approved: 4 October 2021 / Online: 4 October 2021 (09:55:37 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Kodaira, D.; Tsukazaki, K.; Kure, T.; Kondoh, J. Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations. Energies 2021, 14, 7340. Kodaira, D.; Tsukazaki, K.; Kure, T.; Kondoh, J. Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations. Energies 2021, 14, 7340.

Journal reference: Energies 2021, 14, 7340
DOI: 10.3390/en14217340

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

Keywords

photovoltaic generation forecast; probabilistic forecast; prediction interval; ensemble forecast; day ahead forecasting; multiple PV forecasting

Subject

ENGINEERING, Electrical & Electronic Engineering

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.