Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Assessment of Better Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall by Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) using Global Sea Surface Temperature in Bangladesh

Version 1 : Received: 31 December 2018 / Approved: 3 January 2019 / Online: 3 January 2019 (13:20:00 CET)

How to cite: Hossain, Z.; Azad, M.A.K.; Karmakar, S.; Mondal, M.N.I.; Das, M.K.; Rahman, M.M.; Haque, M.A. Assessment of Better Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall by Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) using Global Sea Surface Temperature in Bangladesh. Preprints 2019, 2019010023 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201901.0023.v1). Hossain, Z.; Azad, M.A.K.; Karmakar, S.; Mondal, M.N.I.; Das, M.K.; Rahman, M.M.; Haque, M.A. Assessment of Better Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall by Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) using Global Sea Surface Temperature in Bangladesh. Preprints 2019, 2019010023 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201901.0023.v1).

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Subject Areas

CPT, Rainfall, Prediction, Season, SST

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.