Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead

Version 1 : Received: 30 April 2021 / Approved: 6 May 2021 / Online: 6 May 2021 (16:58:01 CEST)

How to cite: Carvalho, K.; Vicente, J.P.; Jakovljevic, M.; Teixeira, J.P. Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead. Preprints 2021, 2021050116 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202105.0116.v1). Carvalho, K.; Vicente, J.P.; Jakovljevic, M.; Teixeira, J.P. Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead. Preprints 2021, 2021050116 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202105.0116.v1).

Abstract

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

Subject Areas

Time Series Prediction; ANN forecasting; New Coronavirus; COVID19 prediction cases; COVID19 prediction deaths; COVID19 prediction ICU, COVID19 Vaccination; COVID19 in Europe; COVID19 in Israel; COVID19 use of face mask.

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