Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Predictive Simulation of Concurrent Debris Flow: How Slope Failure Locations Affect Predicted Damage

Version 1 : Received: 7 April 2020 / Approved: 8 April 2020 / Online: 8 April 2020 (05:08:37 CEST)

How to cite: Yamanoi, K.; Oishi, S.; Kawaike, K.; Nakagawa, H. Predictive Simulation of Concurrent Debris Flow: How Slope Failure Locations Affect Predicted Damage. Preprints 2020, 2020040118 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0118.v1). Yamanoi, K.; Oishi, S.; Kawaike, K.; Nakagawa, H. Predictive Simulation of Concurrent Debris Flow: How Slope Failure Locations Affect Predicted Damage. Preprints 2020, 2020040118 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0118.v1).

Abstract

Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect.

Subject Areas

debris flow; prediction; numerical simulation; high-performance computing; slope failure; sediment-laden flood; uncertainty analysis

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