Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

Background: Ceramides are a new kind of lipid biomarkers and have already been demonstrated to be valuable risk predictors in coronary patients. Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are a population with worse prognosis and higher mortality risk compared to coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. However, the value of ceramides for risk prediction in PAD patients is still vague and has been addressed in the present study. Methods: This observational study included 379 PAD patients. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 10 years of follow-up. A set of ceramides was measured by LC-MS/MS and combined according to the coronary event risk test (CERT) score which categorizes patients into one of four risk groups (low risk, moderate risk, high risk, very high risk). Results: Kaplan Meier survival curves revealed that the overall survival of patients has decreased with the increasing risk predicted by the four CERT categories, advancing from low risk to very high risk. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that every 1-step increase in category resulted in a 35% rise in overall mortality risk (HR=1.35 [1.16-1.58]). Multivariable adjustment, including amongst others age, T2DM, and statin treatment before baseline, did not abrogate this significant association (HR=1.22 [1.04-1.43]). Moreover, we found that the beneficial effect of statin is significantly stronger in patients with a higher risk according to CERT. Conclusion: We conclude that the ceramide-based risk score CERT is a strong predictor of the 10-year mortality risk in patients with PAD.

The maternal death rate remains high in South Africa despite the availability of many existing strategies to improve the quality of service. A 30% increase in maternal mortality rate was reported between 2020-2021, with Limpopo ranking fourth highest out of nine provinces. Vhembe district remained number three with a high maternal death rate. This study explored strategies to reduce the maternal death rate and improve the provision of quality maternal healthcare services in selected hospitals of Vhembe district, Limpopo province. One hospital was purposively sampled from every four municipalities. A qualitative approach using phenomenological design was employed. Twenty-eight participants were sampled using a convenience sampling method. The semi-structured interview guide was used to collect data. An audio recorder was also used until data saturation. Data saturation was reached at the 20th participant, but the researcher continued until 28 sampled participants were interviewed. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used following the analytical stages of interpretative data analysis. The study proposal was ethically cleared by the University of Venda Ethics Committee (FHS/22/PH/08/3108). Results indicate that despite implementing strategies to improve maternal healthcare services and reduce the maternal death rate, several factors, such as lack of material resources, shortage of staff, incompetent staff, and poor infection control, affect the quality of maternal health service in Vhembe district. Limpopo Department of Health and hospital management should ensure that hospitals have all necessary resources and support healthcare professionals through in-service training to ensure the functionality of existing strategies.

(1) Introduction: Every two hours, a Romanian woman is diagnosed with cervical cancer [1] as the country ranks second in Europe in terms of mortality and incidence rate [2]. This paper aims to identify the main reasons that have led to this situation, focusing on the measures taken by the Romanian Ministry of Health for the prevention of this type of cancer national - programs for cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccination. (2) Materials and methods: We performed a study based on available secondary data from the National Statistics Institute, World Health Organization and Bucharest Institute of Oncology in order to assess the burden associated with cervical cancer and placing it in the context of known global and European incidence and mortality rates, thus evaluating the importance of this health issue in Romania. The second component of our study was a cross-sectional study, using a 14 questions questionnaire, applied to the women participating in the National Screening Program for Cervical Cancer, aimed to evaluate the women’s level of knowledge about screening and HPV vaccination and their access cervical cancer specific health-care services. (3) Results: The results of the research shows that a high percentage of women postpone the routine checks due to lack of time and financial resources and indicate that low level of knowledge about the disease and the specific preventive methods determines low participation screening and HPV vaccination programs implemented in Romania contributing to the country’s situation of cervical cancer. (4) Conclusions: The national programs have complicated procedures, are underfunded, and do not motivate enough health care workers. This combined with the lack of information adds up to an extremely low number of women screened and vaccinated. Our conclusion is that the Romanian Ministry of Health must take immediate action by conducting major awareness campaigns, implementing measures to make the programs functional and ensuring coherent funding.

BRICS-Plus (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other countries) is a group of 35 countries with emerging economies making up more than half of the world’s population. We explored epidemiological trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors and its association with period and birth cohort effects and sociodemographic index (SDI) across BRICS-Plus by using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD deaths increased by 85.2% (6.1 million to 11.3 million) across BRICS-Plus. The CVD ASMR attributable to dietary risks and smoking significantly decreased across BRIC-Plus countries, with some exceptions. However, four-fifth of BRIC-Plus countries observed a remarkable increasing trend of high body mass-index (BMI)-related CVD deaths in particular among younger adults (25-49 years). Early birth cohorts and individuals aged greater than 50 years showed a higher risk of CVD mortality. Both China-ASEAN FTA and Mercosur regions stand out for their successful sociodemographic transition, with a significant reduction in CVD mortality over the study period. Singapore and Brazil achieved great progress in CVD mortality reduction and the other BRICS-Plus countries should follow their lead in adopting public health policies and initiatives into practice.

Objectives: Studies on the association between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the Arabian Gulf are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between NSAIDs use and MACE in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients in the Arabian Gulf region. Methods: Data was analyzed from 3,007 consecutive patients diagnosed with ACS admitted to 29 hospitals in four Arabian Gulf countries from January 2012 to January 2013 as well as being on prior NSAIDs use during the index admission. MACE included stroke/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), myocardial infarction (MI), all-cause mortality and readmissions for cardiac reasons. Results: The overall mean age of the cohort was 62 ± 12 years and 9.6% (n = 290) of the patients were on prior NSAID use during the index admission. At 12-months follow-up, after adjusting for confounding factors, those on NSAIDs were significantly more likely to have had MACE (adjusted OR (aOR), 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-2.48; p < 0.001). Specifically, the higher event rates observed were stroke/TIA (aOR, 2.50; 95% CI: 1.51-4.14; p < 0.001) and readmissions for cardiac reasons (aOR, 2.09; 95% CI: 1.59-2.74; p < 0.001) but not MI (aOR, 1.26; 95% CI: 0.80-1.99; p = 0.320) and all-cause mortality (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI: 0.46-1.34; p = 0.383). Conclusions: NSAIDs use was associated with significant stroke/TIA events as well as readmissions for cardiac reasons. However, NSAIDs were not associated with increased MI or all-cause mortality rates in ACS patients in the Arabian Gulf.

White oak mortality is a significant concern in forest ecosystems due to its impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Understanding the factors influencing white oak mortality, particularly the soil properties, is crucial for effective forest management and conservation efforts. In this study, we aimed to investigate the spatial pattern of white oak mortality and examine the influence of soil properties on mortality rates. Multicycle Forest Inventory and Analysis data were compiled to capture all white oaks across the eastern US. White oak tree mortality data were collected across plot systems that utilized Diameter at Breast Height between two periods. Soil variables were analyzed to assess soil properties. Spatial analysis techniques, including geostatistics and regression modeling, were used to analyze the relationship between white oak mortality and soil characteristics. Results found clustered spatial patterns of white oak mortality across a broad scale depicting the significant effects of coarser soil textures (p = 0.00), nutrient-deficient sites, and extreme soil moisture levels (p <0.1). Our findings demonstrated the importance of soil properties in shaping the spatial pattern of white oak mortality rate. This idea can inform forest management practices for the conservation of white oak populations. Future research is needed for comprehensive soil assessment including biotic and abiotic factors for forest management strategies at a broader scale aimed at mitigating white oak mortality.

It is currently unknown whether thrombin generation is associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, major bleeding, and mortality in the elderly. Therefore, our aim was to prospectively study the association between thrombin generation and VTE recurrence, major bleeding and mortality in elderly patients with acute VTE. Consecutive patients aged ≥65years with acute VTE were followed for 2 years starting from 1 year after the index VTE. Primary outcomes were VTE recurrence, major bleeding and mortality. Thrombin generation was assessed in 565 patients 1 year after the index VTE. At this time, 59% of patients were still anticoagulated. Thrombin generation was discriminatory for VTE recurrence, but not for major bleeding and mortality in non-anticoagulated patients. Moreover, peak ratio (adjusted subhazard ratio 4.09, 95% CI, 1.12-14.92) and normalized peak ratio (adjusted subhazard ratio 2.18, 95% CI, 1.28-3.73) in presence/absence of thrombomodulin were associated with VTE recurrence, but not with major bleeding and mortality after adjustment for potential confounding factors. In elderly patients, thrombin generation was associated with VTE recurrence, but not with major bleeding and/or mortality. Therefore, our study suggests the potential usefulness of thrombin generation measurement after anticoagulation completion for VTE to help identifying among elderly patients those at higher risk of VTE recurrence.

Background: COVID-19 vaccines have been linked to myocarditis which in some circumstances can be fatal. This systematic review aims to investigate potential causal links between COVID-19 vaccines and death from myocarditis using post-mortem analysis. Methods: We performed a systematic review of all published autopsy reports involving COVID-19 vaccination-related myocarditis through July 3^rd, 2023. All autopsy studies that include COVID-19 vaccine-induced myocarditis as a possible cause of death were included, without imposing any additional restrictions. Causality in each case was determined by three independent reviewers with cardiac pathology experience and expertise. Results: We initially identified 1,691 studies and, after screening for our inclusion criteria, included 14 papers that contained 28 autopsy cases. The cardiovascular system was the only organ system affected in 26 cases. In 2 cases, myocarditis was characterized as a consequence from multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS). The mean and median number of days from last COVID-19 vaccination until death was 6.2 and 3 days, respectively. Most of the deaths occurred within a week from the last injection. We established that all 28 deaths were causally linked to COVID-19 vaccination by independent adjudication. Conclusions: The temporal relationship, internal and external consistency seen among cases in this review with known COVID-19 vaccine-induced myocarditis, its pathobiological mechanisms and related excess death, complemented with autopsy confirmation, independent adjudication, and application of the Bradford Hill criteria to the overall epidemiology of vaccine myocarditis, suggests there is a high likelihood of a causal link between COVID-19 vaccines and death from suspected myocarditis in cases where sudden, unexpected death has occurred in a vaccinated person. Urgent investigation is required for the purpose of risk stratification and mitigation in order to reduce the population occurrence of fatal COVID-19 vaccine-induced myocarditis.

Background: Frailty assessment allows the identification of patients at risk of death, and it is a challenge in both emergency departments and support wards. The aim here was to study the ability of the Frail-VIG Index (FI-VIG) in order to discriminate frailty groups of older adults and garner its correlation with mortality in an emergency department short-stay unit (2) Methods: Our observational, single-center, prospective study consecutively included patients over 65-years-old admitted to the unit between March 1, 2021, and April 30, 2021. (3) Results: A total of 302 patients were included (56% women), with a mean age of 83 ± 8 years, and 39.1% of them had a functional disability whilst 16.5% of them had dementia. A total of 174 patients (58%) met the frailty criteria (FI-VIG ≥0.2): 111 (63.8%) had mild frailty (FI-VIG 0.2 - 0.36), 52 (29.9%) had moderate frailty (FI-VIG 0.36 - 0.55), and 11 (6.3%) had advanced frailty (FI-VIG >0.55). Mortality at 30 days, 6 months, and 1 year was analyzed: no frailty was 6.3%, 10.8%, and 12.5%, respectively; mild frailty was 10.8%, 22.5%, and 22.5%, respectively; moderate frailty was 25%, 34.6%, and 42.3%, respectively; and advanced frailty was 36.4%, 54.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. This shows the significant differences between the groups (1-year mortality p<0.001). Mild frailty vs. non-frail HR was 2.47 (95%CI 1.12 - 5.46), moderate frailty vs. non-frail HR was 6.93 (95%CI 3.16 - 15.23), and advanced frailty vs. non-frail HR was 11.29 (95%CI 3.54 - 36.03). The mean test time was 7 minutes. (4) Conclusions: There was a strong correlation between frailty degree and mortality at 1, 6, and 12 months. FI-VIG Index is a fast and easy-to-use tool in this setting, and its routine implementation in SSUs could enable early risk stratification in order to detect vulnerable patients with specific needs.

The performance of 5 forecasting models was investigated for predicting nursery mortality using the master table built for 3,242 groups of pigs (~ 13 million animals) and 42 variables, which concerned the pre-weaning phase of production and conditions at placement in growing sites. After training and testing each model’s performance through cross-validation, the model with the best overall prediction results was the Support Vector Machine model in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE=0.406), Mean Absolute Error (MAE=0.284), and Coefficient of Determination (R2=0.731). Subsequently, the forecasting performance of the SVM model was tested on a new dataset containing 72 new groups, simulating ongoing and near real-time forecasting analysis. Despite a decrease in R2 values on the new dataset (R2=0.554), the model demonstrated high accuracy (77.78%) for predicting groups with high (5&gt;%) or low (5&lt;%) nursery mortality. This study demonstrated the capability of forecasting models to predict the nursery mortality of commercial groups of pigs using pre-weaning information and stocking conditions variables collected post-placement in nursery sites.

(1) Background: Since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, seven epidemic waves have been described in Spain. Our objective was to study mortality and severity, and associated factors in our hospitalized patients; (2) Method: Retrospective cohort study was conducted on COVID-19 patients admitted to the Hospital de Fuenlabrada (Madrid, Spain) from the beginning of the pandemic until December 31, 2022; (3) Results: A total of 5,510 admissions for COVID-19 were recorded. First wave accounted for 1,823 (33%) and exhibited the highest proportion of severe patients (lowest mean oxygen saturation, 88.2%; elevated levels of CRP, IL-6, D-dimer and ferri-tin), but a below-average percentage of intubated patients (5% vs. 6.5%). Overall mortality rate was 10.3%, higher during the first wave (11.5%) and the two winter waves (third: 11.3%, sixth: 12%), although the first wave represented 39% of the total. Variables associated with mortality were age (OR 1.08,1.07-1.09), need for high-flow oxygen (OR 6.10,4.94-7.52), oncological disease (OR 1.88,1.53-2.60), dementia (OR 1.82,1.2-2.75), Charlson index (OR 1.38,1.31-1.47), and maxi-mum IL-6 levels (OR 1.001,1.000-1.001); (4) Conclusions: Variables associated with mortality in-cluded age, comorbidity, respiratory failure, and inflammation. Differences on baseline charac-teristics of patients admitted explained differences on mortality in each wave

Background: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are rare mesenchymal neoplasms of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) that represent approximately 1 to 2 percent of primary gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. Owing to their rarity, very little is known about the overall epidemiology and prognostic factors of the pathology. The purpose of this study is to investigate the clinical characteristics, survival outcomes, and independent prognostic factors of patients with GIST in the past decade. Methods: A total of 2,374 patients diagnosed with GIST, between 2010 and 2017, were ultimately enrolled in our study by retrieving the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We analyzed demographics, clinical characteristics, and overall mortality (OM) as well as cancer-specific mortality (CSM) of GIST. Variables with a p value < 0.01 in the univariate Cox regression were incorporated into the multivariate Cox model to determine the independent prognostic factors, with a hazard ratio (HR) of greater than 1 representing adverse prognostic factors. Results: Multivariate cox proportional hazard regression analyses of factors affecting all-cause mortality and GIST related mortality among US patients between 2010 and 2017 revealed higher overall mortality in Non-Hispanic Blacks (HR= 1.516, 95% CI 1.172-1.961, p= 0.002), age 80+ (HR= 9.783, 95% CI4.185-22.868, p= 0), followed by age 60-79 (HR= 3.408, 95% CI 1.488-7.807, p=0.004); male patients (HR= 1.795 , 95% CI 1.461-2.206, p=0); advanced disease with distant metastasis (HR= 3.865 , 95% CI 2.977-5.019, p=0), followed by regional involvement by both direct extension and lymph node involvement (HR= 3.853, 95% CI 1.551-9.57, p=0.004); and widowed patients (HR= 1.975, 95% CI 1.494-2.61, p= 0), followed by single patients (HR= 1.53, 95% CI 1.154-2.028, p=0.003). The highest CSM was observed in the same groups, except widowed patients and patients aged 60-79. The highest CSM was also observed among patients that underwent chemotherapy (HR= 1.687, 95% CI 1.19-2.392, p= 0.003). Conclusion: In this United States population-based retrospective cohort study using the SEER database, we found that non-Hispanic blacks, male patients, and patients older than 60 years have a higher mortality with GIST. Furthermore, patients who received chemotherapy have a higher GIST specific mortality and married patients had a lower mortality. However, we do not know to what extent these independent prognostic factors interact with each other to influence mortality. This study paves the way for future studies addressing those interactions. The results of this study may help treating clinicians to identify patient populations associated with dismal prognosis as those may require closer follow-up and more intensive therapy; furthermore, with married patients having a better survival, we hope to encourage clinicians to involve family members of the affected patients early in the disease course as the social support might impact the prognosis.

Keywords: Red meat; Processed meat; poultry; dairy; mortality

Early diagnosis and appropriate treatments are crucial to reducing mortality risk in septic patients. Low SOFA scores and current biomarkers may not discern adequately patients that could develop severe organ dysfunction or have an elevated mortality risk. The aim of this prospective observational study is to evaluate the predictive value of the biomarkers midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM), procalcitonin (PCT), C-Reactive Protein (CRP), and lactate for 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis and a SOFA score ≤ 6. 284 patients were included, with a 28-day all-cause mortality of 8.45 % (N=24). Non-survivors were older (p=0.003), required mechanical ventilation (p=0.04) and were ventilated for longer (p=0.02), had a higher APACHE II (p=0.015) and SOFA (p=0.027) scores. Lactate showed the highest predictive ability for all-cause 28-day mortality with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.67 (0.55–0.79). The AUROC for all-cause 28-day mortality in patients with community-acquired infection was 0.69 (0.57–0.84) for SOFA, and 0.70 (0.58–0.82) for MR-proADM. A 2.1 nmol/L cut-off point for this biomarker in this subgroup of patients discerned with 100% sensibility survivors from non-survivors at 28 days. In patients with community acquired sepsis and initial SOFA score ≤ 6, MR-proADM could help identify patients at risk of 28-day mortality.

For children born with congenital heart defects (CHD), extracorporeal life support may be necessary. This study aimed to investigate the outcomes of children on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), focusing on various risk factors, including the type of CHD. The study was conducted as a retrospective single-center analysis at the Children's Hospital Zurich. All patients with CHD who required ECMO (veno-arterial or veno-venous) between 2009 and 2019 were included. Among the 88 patients, 36 (41%) had a single ventricle heart defect while 52 (59%) had a biventricular heart defect. Out of the total patients, 25 (28%) survived, with 7 (8%) having a single ventricle heart defect and 18 (20%) having a biventricular heart defect. Statistical analysis with a p-value of 0.19 revealed no significant difference in survival rates between the two groups. At the one-year follow-up, all children who survived to discharge were still alive. The rate of complications on ECMO was higher in children with a single ventricle (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67 - 3.7). The occurrence of a second ECMO run was more frequent in patients with a single ventricle compared to those with a biventricular physiology (22% vs. 9.6%). Although the study did not identify a significant difference in survival rates, it did indicate that patients with a single ventricle faced a higher risk of complications during ECMO and a greater likelihood of requiring a second ECMO run.

(1) Background: With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) fo-cusing on reducing maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) in regions like Africa become crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, in-ternational organizations, and NGOs. (2) Methods: We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Join Point regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMR for the next 15 years. (3) Results: The study found a decline in MMR in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 65 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 249 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa., averaging 197 per 100,000 births for the continent. (4) Conclusions: Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, only North and South Africa will likely reach the SDG target.

We explored the trends and the diversity of the mortality and risk factors of age-standardized cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD) from 2000 to 2020 in five advanced Asian countries, including China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report. Overall, the CVD mortality rates decreased gradually in all five Asian countries. Singapore had the highest rates before 2011, but Taiwan replaced Singapore as the nation of the highest mortality rates after 2012. Additionally, South Korea had the highest CBD mortality rates before 2016, while Taiwan experienced a peak in 2011 and remained high thereafter. The absolute difference (AD) and relative difference (RD) for CVD mortality rates showed clear declining trends in all five countries, with South Korea and China displaying the highest reductions, respectively. It is noteworthy that overweight and obesity exhibited an increasing trend in all these five Asian countries, with China demonstrating the highest AD and RD. Except for Taiwan, where a negative association of r=-0.732 was observed, CVD mortality was positively associated with CBD, hypertension, and DM mortality in all other four countries, therefore, further investigation into these relationships are needed.

Rationale: The possible effect of Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5 of diameter 10 and 2.5 µm respectively) levels on Covid-19 mortality is now well established. However, time-evolution of Covid-19 mortality according to PM2.5 levels has been scarcely investigated. Aim: To understand this relationship at the European level for the period 2020 (beginning) - 2022 (end). Methods: 16 representative locations in Europe (81 million people) with heterogeneous levels of PM2.5 (µg.m-3), from low to high. PM2.5 levels were assessed by various methods, and Covid-19 mortality was reported by Johns Hopkins University. Results: The trend of Covid-19 mortality vs. PM2.5 levels varied among locations. Overall, the estimated mean value was of a 40±20% mortality increase per 1 µg.m-3 PM2.5 increase. The stronger the positive gradient of the PM peak, the stronger the positive gradient of the Covid-19 mortality. Exposure to several PM peaks during about a 2-month period was the main contributor to Covid-19 mortality increases. Conclusion: Our data confirm a temporal relation between PM2.5 exposure and Covid-19 mortality, considering a 2-month integration-time for pollution events. Number-concentrations of PM should be used in the future rather than the PM2.5 mass-concentrations (µg.m-3) with the consideration of PM composition to better explain this finding.

Background and Objectives: Since the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic, the infection primarily affected patients with following chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, obesity and cancer. The aim of this study was to explore clinical and epidemiological characteristics associated with COVID-19 outcomes in patients at the primary health care centre from March 2020 to September 2022. Materials and Methods: The study included 40,692 citizens of Banja Luka County, Bosnia and Herzegovina, who were confirmed and registered as RT-PCR positive on COVID-19. Differences regarding the distributions of patients between groups were analysed using Pearson chi square test and Mantel-Haenszel chi square test for trends, while differences in mean values were compared using independent samples t test. Relationship between mortality and independent variables were examined using logistic regression. Results: Out of 40,692 COVID-19 positive patients, 7.76% were hospitalized. The average age of hospitalized patients was significantly higher than the age of non-hospitalized patients (64.2±16.1 vs. 45.4±18.7; p&lt;0.001). The average age of patients with lethal outcome was nearly twice higher compared to patients with non-lethal outcome (74.6±11.5 vs. 45.7±18.6; p&lt;0.001). Male patients had higher hospitalization and mortality rate, compared to females (9.8% vs. 5.9%, p&lt;0.001; 4.8% vs. 3%, p&lt;0.001, respectively). The highest hospitalization rate was in patients with chronic renal failure, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, while the death rate was the highest among patients with CRF and hearth comorbidities. Fever, cough, fatigue, nausea and vomiting, chest pain, shortness of breath and appetite loss favoured hospitalization. Patients with fatigue and appetite loss had higher percentage of lethal outcome. Vaccinated patients had significantly lower rate of lethal outcome. Conclusions: Clinical symptoms, signs and outcomes, are posing as predictive parameters for further management of COVID-19. Vaccination has an important role in clinical outcomes of COVID-19.

The effects of statin use for primary prevention in reducing mortality among older adults in Asian populations are unknown. This study aimed to determine whether use of statins for primary prevention was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality in a Japanese older adult population. A regional, population-based, longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB). Data were compared between the statin-treated group and a non-statin-treated (control) group using the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method. In the SKDB cohort aged ≥65 years, new statin use was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33–0.48) after IPTW adjustment. The risk difference for mortality at 5 years in the statin-treated group (7.9%) compared with that in the control group (92.1%) was 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04–0.06), and the number needed to treat was 21.20 (95% CI, 18.10–24.70). In conclusion, statin use for primary prevention in older adults may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality in the population without atherosclerotic disease. Furthermore, statin use for primary prevention is feasible in patients aged 75 to &lt;85 years and in patients with comorbidities such as diabetes, or dementia.

Background : Our objectives were to investigate the incidence of elevated methemoglobin level among COVID-19 patients at intensive care unit. The correlation of methaemoglobinemia with mortality and some haematological parameters was also tested. Methods: The diagosis of coronavirus -19 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR. The quantitative method for determination of methemoglobin was it’s cyanide derivative by spectrophotometry. The reference range was less than 2 percent. Results: There were altogether 46 patients (11 male, 35 female) included. Their median age value was 70 y. ( 29 – 89). The methemoglobin median value was 4,3%. 15 of 46 patients died. The methemoglobin median value of departed patients was 8 % , and 2,5% was among survivors. ( P= 0,001) 19 patients were blood transfused. Their methemoglobin median was 11 % , otherwise the non transfused patients presented 2,7 % methemoglobin median. ( p= 0,001). We performed two binary logistic regression calculation, in order to judge the elevated methemoglobin level as an independent risk factor for the mortality. The predictor of methaemoglobin was 0,062 the constant -1,266 the odds ratio 1,06. The other binary logistic regression tested the fact of transfusion for the mortality. Predictor of transfusion 1,1474, constant -1,2527 odds ratio 3,15 There was no significant correlation between methemoglobin and CRP level. Discussion: The methemoglobin is not able to transport oxygen. It’s association with mortality is discussed by some papers.There are several hypothesis in the literature to explain it’s occurrence in COVID-19. The role of coronavirus proteins as oxydative agents was mentioned. The importance of enzyme defect is emphasized. The impact of reactive oxygen free radicals in inflammation is also probable. Some papers mentioned applying local anesthetics and azythromycin as a risk. The role of transfusion is obscure, because the methemoglobin can be elevated in blood conserves during storage. Conclusion: Testing the methemoglobin seems to be important, but the pathomechanism needs further research.. The traceability and standardization of different measurement methods at intensive care units is the key for defining it’s pathogenetic role.

It is a well-established fact that inadequate Vitamin D (Vit-D) levels have negative effects on the development and progression of malignant diseases, mainly cancer. The purpose of this paper was to elucidate the effects of Vit-D intake and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin-D (25(OH)D) levels on cancer incidence and mortality, the current evidence in this field, and the biases of this evidence using the meta-meta-analysis method. Meta-analyses focusing on Vit-D intake, serum 25(OH)D levels, and cancer risk/mortality were identified. A structured computer literature search was performed in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science (WoS), and Scopus electronic databases using predetermined keyword combinations. Primary and secondary meta-meta-analyses were carried out, combining odds ratios (ORs), risk ratios (RRs), and hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes reported in selected meta-analyses. A total of 35 eligible meta-analyses assessing the association between Vit-D and cancer incidence and/or mortality were included in this study. In the pooled analysis, higher Vit-D intake and serum 25(OH)D levels were associated with lower cancer risk (OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p < 0.001; OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.72-0.89, p < 0.001, respectively) and cancer-related mortality (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.93, p < 0.001; RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.58-0.78, p < 0.001, respectively). When meta-analyses whose primary reports included only randomized controlled trials were pooled, there was no significant association between Vit-D intake and cancer risk (OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.97-1.01, p = 0.320). In subgroup analysis, Vit-D consumption was associated with a significant decrease in colorectal and lung cancer incidence (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.96, p = 0.002; OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83-0.94, p < 0.001, respectively). Taken together, both Vit-D intake and higher 25(OH)D levels may provide remarkable benefits in terms of cancer incidence and mortality, however, careful evaluation according to cancer types is critically important and recommended.

Background and Objectives: Coagulation disorders during COVID-19 infection are associated with poor prognosis and disease severity, because two processes that interfere each other are thrombosis and inflammation. Very important issue for clinicians is timely and adequate hemostasis and inflammation monitoring in order to prevent and treat potentially lethal consequences. Materials and Methods: The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Clinical center Nis, Serbia. One hundered fourty two patients presented with COVID-19 ARDS were admitted to the ICU in Clinic for anesthesiology Clinical Center Nis, from 14th April 2020 to 25 th May 2020. On admission blood was collected for biochemical and coagulation testing. The data obtained was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS v. 25, Chicago, IL, USA). Results: Among all parameters assessed, mortality was associated with higher age (p&lt;0.05), higher factor I (p&lt;0.05), INR (p&lt;0.001), D-Dimer (p&lt;0.001), ADP (p&lt;0.001), ASPI (p&lt;0.001), TRAP (p&lt;0.001), PSEP (p&lt;0.001), A5 extest (p&lt;0.01), A10 ex test (p&lt;0.01), A5 fib (p&lt;0.001), A10fib (p&lt;0.001) and MCF fib (p&lt;0.001) values, but lower CT extest values (p&lt;0.05). Mortality was associated with extreme values of D-Dimer above 1000 (p&lt;0.001), ADP above 590 (p&lt;0.001), ASPI above 800 (p&lt;0.001), TRAP above 1500 (p&lt;0.001) and PSEP above 1000 (p&lt;0.05). Conclusions: The key to success in the treatment of COVID 19 infection is timely and adequate therapy and patient monitoring, which is impossible without early risk stratification and mortality prediction. Sophisticated hemostasis parameters can contribute to early risk assessment, which was initially performed only on the basis of the patient's clinical status.

Is HSP-27 an emerging marker of good prognosis in septic shock patients – a pilot study Objective To estimate the value of serum changes of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, presepsin, heat shock protein 27 (HSP27) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in assessing the prognosis in patients with septic shock (SS) treated in intensive care unit. Methods The SS was diagnosed and treated in accordance with the guidelines of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign. 37 selected adult patients with SS were included. Serum concentrations of biomarkers were measured at admission and daily for 4 consecutive days (time points T0,T1, T2, T3 and T4 respectively). The mortality rate was determined 28 days after admission. Patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups according to their mortality. The differences between the levels of biomarkers at the T0 and T4 time points were analyzed. Results The mean value of the SOFA score on admission was 11.7 ± 2.7, and the APACHE II scale 29.9 ± 6.85. Nine patients died. Univariate logistic analysis revealed that changes between T0 and T4 time points of presepsin, procalcytonin, and HSP27 were associated with prognosis. A multivariate Cox analysis showed that an increase in HSP27 on T4 was the only independent predictor of good prognosis in SS patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for HSP27 was 0.785. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the mortality was lower (p=0.014) in patients who had an increase in HSP27 on T4 compared to those whose serum HSP27 did not increase on T4. Conclusions The increase of HSP27 level on the 4th day predicts favorable outcome in SS patients.

Fragility scales are intended to help in therapeutic decisions. Here we asked if the fragility as-sessment in MM patients ≥75 years old qualified for treatment by the local physician correlates with the choice of treatment: a 2- or 3-drug regimen. Between 7/2018 to 12/2019 we prospectively enrolled 197 MM patients at the start of treatment from the 13 Polish Myeloma Group centers. The data to assess fragility were prospectively collected, but centrally assessed fragility was not disclosed to the local center. The activity of daily living (ADL) could be assessed in 192 (97.5%) and was independent in 158 (80.2%), moderately impaired in 23 (11.7%), and 11 (5.6%) in com-pletely dependent. Patients with more than 3 comorbidities were 26.9% (53 patients). Thus, ac-cording to the Palumbo calculator, 43 patients were in the intermediate-fitness group (21.8%), and the rest belonged to the frailty group (153, 77.7%). Overall, 79.7% of patients (157) received 3-drug regimens and 20.3% (40) received 2-drug regimens. In each ECOG group, more than 3/4 of patients received 3-drug regimens. According to the ADL scale, 82.3% of the independent 65.2% of moderately impaired, and 81.8% of the dependent received 3-drug regimens. Out of 53 pa-tients with at least 4 comorbidities, 71.7% received 3-drug regimens, and the rest 2-drug regi-mens. Three-drugs regimens received 34 patients from the intermediate-fit group (79.0%), and 123 (79.9%) from the frail group. Early mortality occurred in 25 patients (12.7%). No one discon-tinued treatment due to toxicity. To conclude, MM patients over 75 are mainly treated with tri-ple-drug regimens, not only in reduced doses, regardless of their frailty scores. However, the absence of prospective fragility assessment did not negatively affect early mortality and the number of treatment discontinuations which questions the clinical utility of current fragility scales in everyday practice.

In the vaginal ecosystem there is a symbiotic relationship between the microbiota and the host, particularly Candida spp., which are considered commensals of the vaginal mucosa. During pregnancy there is an increase in hormonal secretion that alters the vaginal microbiota and favors the development of Candida infection. Several studies have shown the increased prevalence of Candida during pregnancy, as well as its association with perinatal complications and current clinical practice guidelines recommend fluconazole as the treatment of choice during pregnancy in case of infection by Candida albicans and non-albicans Candida. However, in the Mexican population, this association has not been studied. So in this study, an intentional search for colonization by Candida spp. in pregnant women who attended the obstetric triage of the Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad de Ixtapaluca during the period from May to October 2019, and they were followed up until the end of the pregnancy. Data on age, number of pregnancies, gestational age, body mass index, and perinatal outcomes were analyzed. Of 83 patients included in the study, yeasts corre-sponding to C. albicans (12) and C. glabrata (4) were isolated in 16. In the group of patients with Candida, the maternal age range was from 15 to 36 years old, of which 7 were adolescents and 2 with advanced maternal age, with an average of 2 gestations, the range of body mass index was from 19.3 to 42.4, of which 4 were overweight and 7 obese. Perinatal complications were observed in three patients, one presented chorioamnionitis and in two the neonates were small for gestational age. No association was found between colonization by Candida spp. and the number of preg-nancies, gestational age, body mass index or perinatal results. However, it was found that age (adolescence) may be a risk factor for the development of vulvovaginitis during pregnancy.

Since 2020 COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in es-tablishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death we first investigate the effects of age and sex upon all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we explore several methods to adjust single year of age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single year of age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 years in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+ COVID-19 but no vac-cination) both male and female population-adjusted deaths were significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during widespread COVID–19 vaccination, however, below age 75 deaths progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination and year of age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects for age around puberty were demonstrated where females had higher deaths rather than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may lead to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants in 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age which are potentially due to or ‘with’ COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain, and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile with the Alpha variant shifted to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted persons below age 65. The Omicron variants showed significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65 steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states – although slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single year of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID-variant. Deaths determined as ‘due to’ COVID-19 (as opposed to ‘involving’ COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially over-estimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the year of age specificity of SARS-CoV-2 var-iants are discussed. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry the specific age profile through into the vaccine.

The incidence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bloodstream infections (BSI) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Little evidence exists regarding the epidemiology of BSIs and the use of appropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy in endemic regions. Novel diagnostic tests (RDTs) may facilitate and improve patient management. Data from patients with MDR GNB bacteremia at a university tertiary hospital were assessed over a 12-month period. 157 episodes of MDR GNB BSI were included in the study. Overall mortality rate was 50,3 percent. Rapid molecular diagnostic tests were used in 94% of BSI episodes. In univariate analysis, age (OR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03, 1.08) p<0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR 1.51 (95% CI 1.25, 1.83) p<0.001), Procalcitonin≥1(OR 3.67 (CI 95% 1.73, 7.79) p<0.001) and monotherapy with tigecycline (OR 3.64 (95% CI 1.13, 11.73) p=0.030) were the only factors associated with increased overall mortality. Surprisingly, time to appropriate antimicrobial treatment had no impact on mortality. MDR pathogen isolation, other than Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumanii was associated with decreased mortality (OR 0.35 (95% CI 0.16, 0.79) p=0.011). In multivariate analysis though the only significant factor for mortality was Procalcitonin≥1(OR 2.84 (95% CI 1.13, 7.11) p=0.025). In conclusion, in an endemic area, mortality rates in MDR BSI remain high. High procalcitonin was the only variable that predicted death. The use of rapid diagnostics did not improve mortality rate.

Background: The prevalence of physical inactivity has been rising in many countries in recent years, adding to the burden of non-communicable diseases and affecting overall health worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of physical activity on mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) separately for those respondents who were diagnosed with IHD and for those who were not diagnosed with IHD in their baseline health survey. Methods: In the baseline survey (2006–2008), 7100 men and women ages 45–72 were examined within the framework of the international study Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE). 6770 participants were available for statistical analysis (after excluding 330 respondents due to missing information on study variables). Physical activity was determined by leisure-time physical activities (hours/week). All participants in the baseline survey were followed up for IHD mortality events until December 31, 2018. Results: Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, it was found that moderate and higher levels of physical activity significantly reduced the risk of IHD mortality (HR=0.54 and HR=0.60 respectively) in men who were not diagnosed with IHD at baseline compared with physically inactive subjects. It was found that among men and women who were diagnosed with IHD at baseline, physical activity reduced the risk of mortality from IHD compared with those who were physically inactive (HR=0.54 and HR=0.41 respectively). Using mediation analysis, was found that physical activity directly predicted statistically lower IHD mortality (P&lt;0.05) in men and women. Conclusion: Physical activity was a significant factor that directly predicted statistically lower IHD mortality, regardless of whether subjects had IHD at baseline or not.

(1) Birth asphyxia is the major cause for delivery room resuscitation. Subsequent organ failure and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) account for 25% of all early postnatal deaths. The neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (nSOFA) considers platelet count, respiratory and cardiovascular dysfunction in neonates with sepsis. To evaluate whether nSOFA is also a useful predictor for in-hospital mortality in neonates (≥ 36+0 weeks of gestation (GA)) following asphyxia with HIE and therapeutic hypothermia (TH), (2) nSOFA was documented at ≤ 6 hours of life. (3) 65 infants fulfilled inclusion criteria for TH. All but one infant received cardiopulmonary resuscitation and/or respiratory support at birth. nSOFA was lower in survivors (median 0 [IQR 0-2]; n = 56, median GA 39+3, female n = 28 (50%)) than in non-survivors (median 10 [4-12], p < 0.001; n = 9, median GA 38+6, n = 4 (44.4%)). This was also observed for the respiratory (p < 0.001), cardiovascular (p < 0.001), and hematologic sub scores (p = 0.003). The odds ratio for mortality was 1.6 [95% CI = 1.2 – 2.1] per one-point increase in nSOFA. The optimal cut-off value of nSOFA to predict mortality was 3.5 (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 83.9%). (4) Since early accurate prognosis following asphyxia with HIE and TH is essential to guide end-of-life decisions, nSOFA (≤ 6 hours of life) offers the potential to identify infants at risk of mortality.

The ITALUNG trial started in 2004 and compared lung cancer (LC) and other-causes mortality in 55-69 years-aged smokers and ex-smokers who were randomized to four annual chest low-dose CT (LDCT) or usual care. ITALUNG showed a lower LC and cardiovascular mortality in the screened subjects after 13 years of follow-up, especially in women, and produced many ancillary studies. They included recruitment results of a population-based mimicking approach, development of software for computer aided diagnosis (CAD) and lung nodules volumetry, LDCT assessment of pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) and their relevance to long-term mortality, results of a smoking-cessation intervention, assessment of the radiations dose associated with screening LDCT, and the results of biomarkers assays. Moreover ITALUNG data indicated that screen-detected LCs are mostly already present at baseline LDCT, can present as Lung Cancer associated with Cystic Airspaces, and can be multiple. However, several issues of LC screening are still unaddressed. They include the annual vs biennial pace of LDCT, choice between opportunistic or population-based recruitment and between uni or multi-center screening, implementation of CAD-assisted reading, containment of false positive and negative LDCT results, incorporation of emphysema and CAC quantification in models of personalized LC and mortality risk, validation of ultra-LDCT acquisitions, optimization of the smoking-cessation intervention and prospective validation of the biomarkers.

Background: Histoplasmosis is a systemic mycosis, present globally. We aimed to describe cases of histoplasmosis (Hc) and to establish a risk profile associated to Hc in HIV-infected patients (HIV+). Methods: This was a retrospective study of patients with a clinical-. laboratorial diagnosis of Hc. Data was fed into REDCap and statistical analysis was done with R . Results: We included 99 records, 65 HIV+ and 34 HIV-. Average age was 39 years. Median time from onset to diagnosis was 8 weeks in HIV- and 22 weeks in HIV+. Disseminated histoplasmosis occurred in 79.4% HIV+, vs 36.4% HIV-. Median CD4 count was 70. Co-infection with tuberculosis was present in 20% of HIV+. Blood cultures were positive in 32.3% of HIV+ vs 11.8% of HIV- (p=0.025); bone marrow culture was positive in 36.9% vs 8.8%(p=0.003). Most HIV+ patients (71.4%) were hospitalized. On univariate analysis, anemia, leukopenia, intensive care, use of vasopressors and mechanical ventilation were associated with death in HIV+. Conclusions: Most of our patients with histoplasmosis were HIV+, presenting advanced AIDS. Diagnosis was late in HIV+ patients, and they frequently presented disseminated Hc, required hospitalization, and died. Early screening for Hc in HIV+ and drug induced immunosuppressed patients is crucial.

Background: The infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important reflection of the well-being of infants and the overall health of the population. This study aims to examine the macroeconomic (ME), sociodemographic (SD), and health status and resources (HSR) effects on IMR, as well as how they may interact with each other. Methods: A retrospective time-series study using yearly data for Oman from 1980 to 2022. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was utilized to develop the exploratory model of the determinants of IMR. Results: The model indicates that HSR determinants directly but negatively affect IMR (= -0.617, p&lt;0.001). SD directly and positively affects IMR (= 0.447, p&lt;0.001). ME only indirectly affects IMR (=-0.854, p&lt;0.001). ME determinants also exert some direct influences on both HSR (= 0.722, p&lt;0.001) and SD (= -0.916, p&lt;0.001) determinants. Conclusions: These findings indicate that an integrated policy that addresses socioeconomic and health-related factors and the overall ME environment is necessary for the health and well-being of the children and the population overall in Oman.

Background: Malnutrition in critically ill paitents is closely linked with clinical outcomes. During acute inflammatory states, nutrition cannot reverse the loss of body cell mass completely. Studies on nutritional screening and strategy considering metabolic changes not yet been conducted. We aimed to identify nutrition strategies using the modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTIRC) score. Methods: Nutrition support data, laboratory nutrition indicators, and prognosis indices were prospectively collected on the 2nd and 7th day after admission. It is to identify the effect of changes on the metabolic status and critical target of nutrition intervention. To discriminate the high-risk group of malnutrition, receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted. Risk factors associated with 28 day-mortality were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 490 and 266 patients were analyzed on the 2nd and 7th day, respectively. Only the mNUTRIC score showed significant differences in nutritional risk stratification. The use of vasopressors, hypo-protein supply (< 1.0 g/kg/day), high mNUTRIC score and hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 mg/dl) in the recovery phase was strongly associated with 28-day mortality. Conclusions: The implementation of the mNUTRIC score and protein supply in the post-acute phase is critical to improve 28-day mortality in critically ill patients.

All vaccines exhibit both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects are measured by the efficacy against the target pathogen, while the non-specific effects can be detected by the change in all-cause mortality . All-cause mortality data (gender, age band, vaccination history, month of death) between January 2021 and May 2022 was compiled by the Office for National Statistics. COVID–19 vaccination gave good protection on many occasions but less so for younger ages. Each gender and age group shows its own unique vaccination benefit/disbenefit time profile. Individuals are free to make vaccination decisions. For example, women aged 18-39 show a cohort who do not progress beyond the first or second dose. The all-cause mortality outcomes for the Omicron variant showed a very poor response to vaccination with 70% of sex/age/vaccination stage/month combinations increasing all-cause mortality, probably due to unfavorable antigenic distance between the first-generation vaccines and this variant, and additional non-specific effects. The all-cause mortality outcomes of COVID–19 vaccination is far more nuanced than have been widely appreciated, and virus vector appear better than the mRNA vaccines in this specific respect. The latter are seemingly more likely to increase all-cause mortality especially in younger age groups. An extensive discussion/literature review is included to provide potential explanations for the observed unexpected vaccine effects.

Global research on the Covid-19 vaccine’s effectiveness is using methods that are misleading the scientific community and public opinion. There is a golden rule in medicine: to measure the effectiveness of an experimental medicine you need to have two groups. The group that will take medicine and the group that will not take medicine. You follow the health status of both groups for a few months and you will get objective results. This is the only proper methodology to verify the effectiveness of a new medicine. Articles cited from 1-5 did not use the gold rule. They develop different kinds of methodologies that all have no statistical significance. On the basis of their methodologies, they conclude that Covid-19 vaccines have a positive effect on public health. By comparing graphs of the intensity of vaccination and the rate of mortality we see that after the period of intense vaccination follows the period of higher excess mortality. Basic statistical data are confirming that Covid-19 vaccines increased the mortality rate.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been challenging for society, especially for those residing in long-term care facilities (LTCF). This study aimed to describe rates of infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 among older people and staff of LTCF in a state of Southeastern Brazil and identify strategies to prevent and control the disease spread. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 164 LTCF (6,017 older people). Among the studied LTCF, 48.7% confirmed COVID-19 infection in older people, resulting in 39.6% hospitalization and 32.3% death among infected. Moreover, 68.9% of LTCF confirmed COVID-19 infection in the staff, with 7.3% hospitalization and 1.2% death. Preventive measures were identified and classified as organizational, infrastructure, hygiene items and personal protective equipment, and staff training against COVID-19. These measures showed strategies and barriers experienced in the daily routine of LTCF during the pandemic. LTCF in Brazil experienced challenges similar to observed worldwide.

By using the Sala-i-Martin version of extreme bounds analysis, which is based on the cumulative density function, cross-sectional evidence is presented on the robust determinants of the infection and case mortality rates of Covid-19. The results show that, for most part, different factors determine the infection and mortality rates in developed and developing countries. However, common factors are also apparent, including the risk environment, the number of tests per million and the percentage of population over 65. Notwithstanding the possibility that the official data represent a partial reflection of the truth, it is concluded that the results presented in this study provide useful information that may aid decision-making in the fight against the pandemic.

Cancer is a major concern for people, and accurately predicting the probability of cancer incidence and mortality is an important research topic. With the development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, a new machine learning model has emerged. Using 72,591 pieces of data, including age, case count, population size, race, gender, site of onset, and year of discovery, we built a machine learning model. Through calculations, we found that the decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, and neural network achieved testing accuracies of 62.11%, 61.68%, 54.53%, 55.72%, and 63.10%, respectively. With the help of this model, scientists and policymakers can accurately predict future cancer incidence and mortality rates through databases, allowing them to make relevant policies (such as timely allocating doctors and medical resources) to better serve the people.

To investigate the mass mortality of asari clams triggered by upwelling-driven hypoxia, we conducted biological and oceanographic observations of the Rokujo tidal flat in Mikawa Bay, central Japan. In addition, a simple laboratory experiment was conducted using sediments on a tidal flat containing macrobenthos to examine the possibility of hydrogen sulfide formation in tidal flats. The results of field observations showed that the number and biomass of asari clams decreased from September to October in the tidal flat when hypoxia was intermittent. In particular, hypoxia persisted for approximately one week from September 21, which was associated with the calm weather and stagnation of tidal currents owing to the neap tide. The hydrogen sulfide concentration in the water directly above the sediment exceeded 30 mg L-1 after 3 days of incubation. Our results suggest that the mass mortality of asari clams may be caused by the high concentration of hydrogen sulfide produced by sulfate reduction, which is attributed to the chain of biological die-off caused by the upwelling of hypoxic water mass accompanied by meteorological events, and calm conditions such as the neap tide period.

(1) Background: This paper investigates the epidemiological risk related to temperature before and during COVID-19 in Italy; (2) Methods: Deaths in 2015-2019 and temperatures were correlated. Excess and COVID-19 deaths were examined to estimate the relationships with temperatures; (3) Results: Annual deaths were higher during the cold months (+45,000, SD = 4,700, S = 21). The scenario worsened during COVID-19. Mortality was higher during minimum temperature periods, although the curve moderately rose in the warmest months (r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths showed a decreasing seasonality. Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were high (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], S = 28) with a doubt of seasonality. COVID-19 mortality was correlated with regional latitude (r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths were found. The exposed population was subject to aging; (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological risk in Italy is seasonal and geographically dependent. Low and very high temperatures can lead to mortality peaks. Therefore, COVID-19 and any other epidemiological risk must be evaluated in light of this evidence. Health systems need to be strengthened during cold and extremely hot periods. Future research should investigate these phenomena at the causal level.

The COVID-19 pandemics has had an unprecedented global impact, and the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign has been commonly regarded as crucial to overcome the pandemics. Since all-cause mortality is the best way to measure the consequences of a health intervention, the present study was devised to analyze the all-cause mortality data of the United Kingdom (UK), which are made publicly available broken down by vaccination status. Data from January to May 2022 were retrospectively collected and analyzed according to age groups and vaccination status and the relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality was calculated in comparison to the corresponding unvaccinated groups. All-cause mortality RR was also calculated from January to May 2021 for vaccinated people. Results show that the all-cause mortality RR was higher in people who received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccines throughout the whole period and in any of the age groups considered. People vaccinated with three doses more than 21 days earlier had RRs lower than unvaccinated people, which however linearly increased over time. RR in vaccinated people of all ages in comparison to unvaccinated people were lower in January-May 2021, however they steadily grew over time. The finding that all-cause mortality RR in vaccinated in comparison to unvaccinated people increases over time requires careful examination to understand the underlying factors. Meanwhile, all the other major countries should undertake a systematic collection of all-causes mortality broken down by vaccination status, and mass vaccination campaigns should be suspended.

We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality, i.e., mortality higher than before the pandemic. Analyses of 31 countries weighted by population size show that all-cause mortality during the first nine months of 2022 increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake; a one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105 percent (95% CI, 0.075-0.134). When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy. Also, the study shows that 2021 all-cause mortality was lower the higher the vaccination uptake, but this association became non-significant when controlling for alternative explanations.

Artificial regeneration is successful when high performing seedlings are transported with care to the planting site, stored for a short period in an environment without desiccation or fungal growth, and are planted in a deep hole so roots are in contact with moist soil. One of the requirements for success is the ability to avoid common planting mistakes. Due, in part, to use of container stock plus an increase in rainfall, average 1st year survival of pine seedlings (89%) in the southern United States is about 15% greater now than 45 years ago. However, when survival is less than 50% six months after planting, some landowners seek reimbursement for their loss. Some assume poor seedling quality was the cause without realizing that anaerobic soils or sudden freeze events or shallow planting holes or pruning roots, a lack of rain, or underground insects can kill pines. With a focus on pines planted in the southern United States, we list non-nursery factors that have killed seedlings in North America, Africa and Europe.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high prevalence of comorbidities in Mexico, as well as the disparities between public and private health subsystems, substantially contributed to the severe impact it had in the country. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare risk factors present at admission for mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A 2-year retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 was conducted at a private tertiary care center. The study population consisted of 1,258 patients with a median age of 56 ± 16.5 years, of whom 1,093 recovered (86.8%) and 165 died (13.1%). In the univariate analysis, older age (p &lt;0.001), comorbidities such as hypertension (p &lt;0.001) and diabetes (p &lt;0.001), signs and symptoms of respiratory distress, and markers of acute inflammatory response were significantly more frequent in non-survivors. The multivariate analysis showed that older age (p &lt;0.001), the presence of cyanosis (p 0.005) and previous myocardial infarction (p 0.032) were independent predictors for mortality. In the studied cohort, risk factors present at admission associated with an increased risk of death were older age, cyanosis and a previous myocardial infarction, which can be used as valuable predictors for patients’ outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients attended on a private tertiary hospital in Mexico.

Background: Endotheliopathy is common pathologic findings in patients with acute and long COVID-19. It may be associated with disease severity and predispose to long-term complications. Plasma levels of a proteoglycan syndecan-1 are found to be significantly elevated in patients with COVID-19, but its roles in assessing the disease severity and predicting long-term outcome are not fully understood. Methods: 124 consecutive hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection were prospectively enrolled and blood samples were collected on admission (T1), 3-4 days following treatment (T2), and 1-2 days prior to discharge or death (T3). Plasma levels of syndecan-1 were determined using an immunosorbent assay; various statistical analyses were performed to determine the association between plasma syndecan-1 levels and disease severity or the 60-day mortality rate. Results: Compared with those in the healthy controls, plasma levels of syndecan-1 in patients with critical COVID-19 were significantly higher (p<0.0001). However, there was no statistically significant difference among patients with different disease severity (p>0.05), resulting from large individual variability. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated that while the levels fluctuated during hospitalization in all patients, plasma syndecan-1 levels were persistently elevated from baseline in critical COVID19 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed that elevated plasma levels of syndecan-1 (>260 ng/mL at T1, >1018 ng/mL at T2, and >461 ng/mL at T3) were significantly associated with the 60-day mortality rate. Conclusions: Endotheliopathy, marked by glycocalyx degradation and elevated plasma syndecan-1, occurs in nearly all hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection; the elevated plasma syndecan-1 is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Melioidosis, or Whitmore's disease, is an infectious disease initiated by a bacteria known as Burkholderia pseudomallei. This bacteria is commonly found in contaminated soil and water. In Malaysia, the mortality from melioidosis infection was reported to be higher than in other infectious diseases. The research on melioidosis is still limited in Malaysia but slightly increasing. The article's objective was to seek all the melioidosis research related to mortality in Malaysia. The information from the selected papers was then abstracted into two sections; Section 1: Review of literature and Section 2: Findings on mortality from melioidosis in Malaysia. In Section 1, the information on transmission and clinical features of melioidosis, demographic, severity of melioidosis, a clinical signs of melioidosis, diagnosis of melioidosis, management of melioidosis, the economic burden of melioidosis, and incidence of mortality from melioidosis were discussed in this paper. Meanwhile, in Section 2, the findings on mortality of melioidosis in Malaysia were discussed according to eight published articles. It is important to manage patients with melioidosis with appropriate treatment and management to reduce severe complications, high fatality rate, and relapse. More published research on melioidosis will provide input to the clinicians on a more detailed understanding of how to improve the diagnosis of melioidosis and the prognosis factors of this disease.

Prostate Cancer (PCa) is still ranked as the first cancer in male population and evidences have suggested an alteration of glycemic and lipidic metabolism that are related to its progression and prognosis. Aim of the study is to investigate associations between enzymes’ expression, especially involved in the lipidic pathway, and PCa aggressiveness. We retrospectively analyzed data from 390 patients with PCa or benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) at the Department of Urology, University of Catania. Immunohistochemical slides were evaluated for the expression of proteins related to glucose and lipidic metabolism. A total of 286 were affected by PCa while 104 by BPH. We demonstrated that ATP-lyase (odds ratio [OR]: 1.71; p&lt;0.01), fatty acide sinthase (OR: 4.82; p&lt;0.01), carnitine palmitoyl transferase-1a (OR: 2.27; p&lt;0.05) were associated with androgen receptor (AR) expression. We found that steaoryl Co-A desaturase expression in PCa patients with total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dl was independently associated with ISUP ≥4 (OR: 4.22; p=0.049). We found that CPT-1a+ was associated with biochemical recurrence (hazard ratio: 1.94; p=0.03]). Our results support the evidences that the manipulation of lipidic metabolism could serve in the future to contrast PCa progression.

During a sanitary crisis, excess mortality measures the number of all-cause deaths, beyond what we would have expected if that crisis had not occurred. The high number of COVID-19 deaths started a debate in Italy with two opposite positions: those convinced that COVID-19 deaths were not, by default, excess deaths, because many COVID-19 deaths were not correctly registered, with the most part attributable to other causes and to the overall crisis conditions, and those who presented the opposite hypothesis. We analyzed the curve of the all-cause excess mortality, during the period January 5, 2020 – August 28, 2022, compared to the curve of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, investigating the association between excess mortality and the recurrence of COVID-19 waves in Italy. We compared the two curves looking for the corresponding highest peaks and we found that 5 out of the 6 highest peaks (83.3%) of the excess mortality curve have occurred, on average, just a week before the concomitant COVID-19 waves hit their highest peaks of daily deaths (Mean 6.4 days; SD 2.4 days). This temporal correspondence between the moments when the excess mortality peaked and the highest peaks of the COVID-19 deaths provides further evidence that the all-cause excess mortality wave has been mostly driven by COVID-19 deaths

The study comprehensively evaluated the prognostic roles of PLR, NLR, MLR, BLR, and ELR in patients with acute exacerbation chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). 619 patients with AECOPD and 300 healthy volunteers were retrospectively included into the study. The clinical characteristics containing laboratory findings of the AECOPD patients and the blood cell counts (CBCs) of the healthy volunteers were collected. Compared with the healthy volunteers, PLR, NLR, and MLR were elevated in COPD patients in stable condition, and were further ele-vated during exacerbation. ELR showed the opposite trend. PLR, NLR, and MLR were all posi-tively correlated with hospital LOS as well as CRP. In contrast, ELR was negatively correlated with hospital LOS as well as CRP. Elevated PLR, NLR, and MLR were all associated with more serious airflow limitation in AECOPD. Elevated PLR, NLR, and MLR were all associated with increased in-hospital mortality while Elevated ELR was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality in AECOPD. A nomogram was construct to predict in-hospital mortality in AECOPD. The nomo-gram had a C-index of 0.850 (95% CI: 0.799 – 0.901) with good predictive value and clinical ap-plicability. In summary, PLR, NLR, MLR, and ELR served as predictors for clinical outcomes in patients with AECOPD.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complication that can occur after cardiac surgery and requires ongoing research in light of the exponential expansion of technological advancements and knowledge in medicine. In this study, we aim to evaluate the outcomes of treated electives of emergency aortic disease with high serum creatinine levels (SCr). Methods: The cohort includes 183 patients, all of whom have an aortic disease and whose SCr levels were checked upon admission on the first day in the intensive care unit (ICU) and upon discharge from the hospital. We examined the correlation of SCr levels with in-hospital mortality and immediate mortality at least six months after discharge as well as with cross-clamp time and bypass time.Results: A high SCr level upon admission is a significant predictive factor of n-hospital mortality (p = 0.001) but not immediate mortality (p = 0.409). A statistically significant correlation was also observed between elevated SCr level on the first day of ICU and aortic disease (p = 0.041) but not immediate mortality (p = 0.119). We observed a significant correlation between aortic disease and in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001), but no correlation was found between high SCr level on the first day of ICU and immediate mortality (p = 0.119). The cross-clamp time is statistically significant correlated with elevated SCr level (p = 0.013) and in-hospital mortality (p = 0.001) but not immediate mortality (p = 0.847). Furthermore, the bypass time is negatively correlated with a high SCr level on the first day of ICU (p = 0.090), in-hospital mortality (p = 0.410), and immediate mortality (p = 0.625). We also found that aortic disease is not correlated with elevated creatinine levels at ICU discharge (p = 0.152) or long-term mortality (p = 0.106). Conclusions: Although this study only included a small portion of the elaborate aspects of surgical and medical management developed around cardiac patients who received invasive treatment, the conclusions reached are nevertheless clearly relevant, as evidenced by the significantly correlations uncovered. In order to manage AKI after AAS and improve the outcome, the SCr level could be used as a marker for renoprotective strategy. Moving forward, these results serve as a first step in motivating us to expand the range of our research, collect newly relevant data, and use it to benefit patients.

Objectives: To analyze cumulative incidence and mortality by COVID-19 in the different types of nursing homes, in the first and second wave.Methods: Data source: Transparency portal of the Generalitat de Catalunya, official COVID-19 register of all Catalan nursing homes (from March to December 10, 2020). Variables: Affectation of disease and mortality by COVID-19 in geriatric centers in Catalonia, stratified by size of center and type of management. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, IBM^TMSPSS^® v.20.Results:N = 1,057 residences (63,682 beds, average = 60.48). 52% have <50 beds, 42.8% between 50-150 beds, and 5%> 150 beds. COVID-19: Cumulative incidence: 21,370 (confirmed + suspicious); mortality: 5,010 (confirmed + suspicious).233 residences did not register COVID-19 patients (22%) and 636 did not register COVID-19 deaths (60.2%).According to the type of supplier, the lowest incidence of COVID-19 was in non-accredited (36.2% without cases), then concerted / collaborators (19.3%) and own of the Generalitat de Catalunya (7.9 %, p = 0.000). The centers with the fewest deaths were the non-accredited (78% without deaths), followed by contracted / collaborators (56.8%) and those of the Generalitat de Catalunya (41.3%, p = 0.000).Depending on the size, no COVID-19 patients were registered: 168 centers <50 beds (30.5%); 64 of the 50-150 beds (14.2%); and 1 of the> 150 beds (1.9%) (p = 0.000). 395 of the <50 beds did not register deaths due to COVID-19 (71.8%), 232 of the 50-150 beds (51.3%), and 9 of the> 150 beds (17%) (p = 0.000).Discussion:Of the 1,057 centers analyzed, 22% did not register cases and in 60% there were no deaths from COVID-19.Residences without concert / collaboration with the Generalitat and with fewer beds showed a lower cumulative incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 during the first wave.

Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the UNICE data bank from 2000 to 2017, being 2017 the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -3.0% (95% CI -2.9;-3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South Africa region. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.

Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database from 1990-2015. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -2.6%. All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in East Africa. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in East Africa. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.

Background: Multi-drug resistance organisms (MDRO) often cause increased morbidity, mortality, and length of stays (LOS). However, there is uncertainty whether the infection of MDRO increase the morbidity, mortality, and ICU-LOS. Objective: This study performed to determine the prevalence of MDRO in ICU, site of infection and the association of MDRO or site of infection with mortality. Secondary outcome was determined by ascertaining the association of MDRO or site of infection with (ICU-LOS). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed with adult sepsis patients in ICU. Univariate and multivariate (MVA) logistic regression with cox regression modeling were performed to compute the association of MDRO on ICU-mortality. MVA modelling was performed for ICU-LOS predictors. Results: Out of 228 patients, the isolated MDRO was 97 (42.5%) of which 78% were gram-negative bacteria. The mortality rate among those with MDRO was 85 (37.3%). The hospital acquired infection (HAI) was significantly predictor for ICU-LOS in univariate linear regression (R² = 0.034, P=0.005). In MVA linear regression, both Enterococcus faecalis infection and acinetobacter baumannii (AC) -MDRO were predictors for ICU-LOS with (R² = 0.478, P<0.05). In the univariate cox regression, only the infection with AC- MDRO was a risk factor for ICU-mortality with [ HR =1.802 (95% CI: 1.2 – 2.706; P = 0.005)]. Conclusions: Identifying risk factors for MDRO highlight the appropriate administration of empirical antibiotics and effectively control of source of infection which would reduce mortality and ICU-LOS. The usage of broad- spectrum antibiotics should be limited for those having substantial risk factors to acquire MDRO.

Aim. To identify factors associated with mortality with tuberculosis diagnosis in the indigenous population in Peru 2015-2019. Methods. Case-control study nested in a retrospective cohort, using the registry of persons belonging to indigenous peoples of the National Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Strategy of the Ministry of Health of Peru. A descriptive analysis was applied, and then bivariate and multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between the variables and the outcome (live-deceased), the results were presented as OR with their respective 95% confidence intervals. Results. The mortality rate of the total indigenous population of Peru was 1.75 deaths per 100,000 indigenous people diagnosed with TB. The community of Kukama kukamiria - Yagua reported 505 (28.48%) individuals. The final logistic model showed that indigenous men (OR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.001-3.7), with a history of HIV prior to TB (OR=16.7; 95% CI: 4.7-58.7) and indigenous people in old age (OR=2.95; 95% CI: 1.5-5.7), are factors associated with a greater chance of dying from TB. Conclusions. It is important to reorient health services among indigenous populations, especially those related to improving the timely diagnosis and early treatment of TB-HIV co-infection, to ensure comprehensive care for this population, considering that they are vulnerable groups.

Covid-19 pandemic affected outcome in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients in majority of countries. We aimed to assess retrospectively admissions, treatments, complications and mortality of STEMI patients in the northeast of Slovenia in the first (March-May 2020) and the second wave (October-December 2020) of Covid-19 pandemic and compare them with the data from 2019 (March-October). Comparing 2019 and both waves of Covid-19 pandemic we observed nonsignificant differences in the number of STEMI admissions, in baseline characteristics, in the use of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), either within the first 3 (40.5%* vs 30.2% vs 25%*, *p = 0.074) and 6 hours, nonsignificant differences in TIMI III flow after primary PCI and in hospital complications, except for significant increase in hospital heart failure (23.3% vs 42%, p = 0.015) and mitral regurgitation in the second wave (10% vs 26.9%, p = 0.008) of the pandemic with nonsignificant increase in hospital mortality (8.9% vs 9.4% vs 13.6%) in both waves of the pandemic. We conclude, that with increased severity of Covid-19 pandemic in the second wave there was a longer delay to primary PCI in STEMI patients, resulting in significantly increased hospital heart failure and nonsignificantly increased hospital mortality

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by the clonal proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment. Despite the progress made in treatment, some MM patients still die within the first year of diagnosis. Numerous studies investigating microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns suggest they may be good prognostic markers. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the expression of selected miRNAs in the serum of MM patients subsequently treated with bortezomib-based regimens and determine their potential to predict early mortality. The study was conducted in 69 prospectively-recruited patients with newly-diagnosed MM admitted to the Department of Hematology of the Copernicus Memorial Hospital, Lodz (Poland) between 2017 and 2021. Among them, 17 patients experienced death within 12 months of diagnosis. The expression of 31 selected miRNAs was determined using miRCURY LNA miRNA Custom PCR Panel. The obtained clinical data included patient characteristics on diagnosis, treatment regimen, response to treatment, and follow-up. Differential expression analysis found two miRNAs to be significantly downregulated in the early mortality group: hsa-miR-328-3p (fold change- FC: 0.72, p=0.0342) and hsa-miR-409-3p (FC: 0.49, p=0.0357). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the early mortality rate. The final model consisted of hsa-miR-409-3p, hsa-miR-328-3p, age and R-ISS 3. It yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.863 (95%CI: 0.761-0.965) with 88.2% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity. Further external validation of our model is necessary to confirm its clinical value.

Background—In 2011, Miller and Goldman published a study in Human and Experimental Toxicology that found a counterintuitive, positive correlation, r = 0.70 (r² = 0.49, p < .0001), demonstrating that as nations require more vaccine doses for their infants, infant mortality rates (IMRs) tend to increase (worsen). The dataset (n = 30) included the United States, a nation that required the most vaccines for their infants, and all nations with better IMRs than the United States. Dr. E. Bailey, a professor at BYU, and her students, recently read the Miller-Goldman study and found it "troublesome that this manuscript is in the top 5% of all research outputs" and falsely claimed that its findings were due to "inappropriate data exclusion," i.e., failure to analyze the "full dataset" of all 185 nations. The "Bailey reanalysis," titled Infant vaccination does not predict increased infant mortality rate: correcting past misinformation, was posted to the medRxiv preprint server on September 10, 2021 (version 1) and October 5, 2021 (version 3) and Europe PMC preprint server on September 10, 2021. Objective—This present study examines the various claims postulated by the Bailey reanalysis and assesses the robustness of their methodology, analyses, and reported results and conclusions. Methods—Data discussed in this paper are based on the previously mentioned study by Miller and Goldman and the Bailey reanalysis. Results—Linear regression analysis of IMR and the number of vaccine doses for each country yield a statistically significant positive correlation of r = 0.70 (p < .0001) for the top nations (n = 30) chosen by Miller-Goldman and r = 0.16 (p < .04) for the "entire dataset" chosen by Bailey et al (n = 185). Bailey also conducted linear regression analyses (for the year 2019) of IMRs as a function of vaccination rates for each of eight different vaccines and reported statistically significant inverse correlations for 7 of 8 vaccines over the entire range of vaccination rates. However, Miller and Goldman reanalyzed the Bailey analyses for nations with vaccination rates below 60% and found no statistically significant correlation for six vaccines (DPT, Hib, hepatitis B, polio, rotavirus, and measles) and statistically significant positive correlations for tuberculosis (r = 0.8, p < .005) and pneumococcal (r = 0.6 p < .023) vaccines. Conclusions—Bailey’s reanalysis corroborates a statistically significant positive correlation originally reported by Miller and Goldman. However, Bailey’s reported correlation (r = +0.16, p < .04) is small, likely due to poor methodology (failing to account for covariates, i.e., disparities among numerous socioeconomic factors that add uncertainty to their conclusion). The r-value reported by the Bailey reanalysis demonstrates an effect size that is about one-fourth (0.16/0.70) that reported by Miller-Goldman—underscoring how critically important it is for Bailey's reanalysis to eliminate confounding variables. Moreover, Bailey’s linear regression analyses of IMR as a function of vaccination rates for each of eight different vaccines demonstrate that some countries with low vaccination rates have low IMRs, while other countries with high vaccination rates have high IMRs. Rather than supporting a strong inverse correlation, the Bailey reanalysis demonstrates high vaccination rates are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause low IMR.

Introduction: Established predictors for COVID-19 related mortalities are diverse, with cytokine release syndrome (CRS), a key intermediator to the case fatalities being dominant and multi-faceted. The impact of these several risk factors on coronavirus mortality have been previously reported in several meta‐analyses limited by small sample sizes and premature data, and CRS not fully being accounted for. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the evidence on the risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality with HIV serostatus using published data, and a meta-regression to account for possible covariates. Method: Electronic databases including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, COVID-19 Research Database, and Scopus, were systematically searched till 30th February, 2022. All human studies were included irrespective of publication date or region. Twenty-two studies with a total of 19,783,097 patients detailing COVID-related mortality and eleven with a total of 2,005,274 were included. To pool the estimate, a random-effects model with risk ration as the effect measure was used. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated followed by meta-regression. The trial was registered (CRD42021264761) on the PROSPERO register. Results: The findings were consistent in stating the contribution of HIV infection for COVID-19 related CRS and mortality. The cumulative COVID-19 related mortality and CRS was 110270 (0.6%) and 48863 (2.4%) with total events of 2010 (3.6%), 108260 (0.5%) and 837(4.6%), 48026 (2.4%) among HIV-positive and negative persons respectively. HIV infection showed an increased risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality [RR= 1.48, 95% CI (1.16, 1.88) (P=0.002)] and [RR =1.19, 95% CI (1.02 -1.39) (P=0.00001)] respectively, both with substantial heterogeneity (I² > 80%). The true effects size in 95% of all the comparable populations fell between 0.64 to 2.22 and 0.67 to 3.29 for mortality and CRS respectively. MC studies and COVID-19 mortality with HIV infection showed a significant association [RR = 1.305, 95% CI (1.092 -1.559) (P = 0.003)], similar to studies conducted in America (RR = 1.422, 95% CI 1.233–1.639) and South Africa (RR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.052–1.198). HIV infection showed a risk for ICU admission [(P=0.00001) (I² = 0%)] and mechanical ventilation [(P=0.04) (I² = 0%)] as parameters of CRS. Furthermore, risk of COVID-19 related CRS is influenced by the year a study was conducted (R² = 0.55) and the region (R² = 0.11) same for mortality (R² = 0.60). The variance proportion explained by covariates was significant for CRS (I² = 86.5%, Q = 73.99, df = 10, P = 0.0000) (R² = 0.78) and mortality (I² = 87.5%, Q = 168.02, df = 21, p = 0.0000) (R² = 0.67). Conclusion: Our updated meta-analysis indicated that HIV infection was significantly associated with an increased risk for both COVID-19 – CRS and mortality, which might be modulated by regions, study setting and year. Risk for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation are the key indicators of CRS. We believe the updated data further anchoring CRS will contribute to more substantiation of the findings reported by similar earlier studies (Dong et al., 2021; K. W. Lee et al., 2021; Massarvva, 2021; Mellor et al., 2021; Ssentongo et al., 2021)

Introduction: The presence of multiple comorbidities increases the risk of all-cause mortality, but the effects of the comorbidity sequence before the baseline date on mortality remained unexplored. This study investigated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) sequence on all-cause mortality risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This study included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications in public hospitals of Hong Kong between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2009 with follow-up until death or December 31st, 2019. Cox regression was used to identify comorbidity sequences predicting all-cause mortality in patients with different medication subgroups. Results: A total of 249291 patients (age: 66.0±12.4 years, 47.4% male) were included. At baseline, 7564, 10900 and 25589 patients had AF, HF and CHD, respectively. Over follow-up (3524±1218 days), 85870 patients died (mortality rate: 35.7 per 1000 person-years). Sulphonylurea users with CHD developed later, but insulin users with CHD developing earlier, in the disease course had lower mortality risks. Amongst insulin users with two of the three comorbidities, CHD with preceding AF (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.06, 95% CI: [2.60-3.61], p<0.001) or HF (HR: 3.84 [3.47- 4.24], p<0.001) had a higher mortality. In users of lipid-lowering agents with all three comorbidities, those with preceding AF had higher risk of mortality (AF-CHD-HF: HR: 3.22, [2.24-4.61], p<0.001; AF-HF-CHD: HR: 3.71, [2.66-5.16], p<0.001). Conclusion: The sequence of comorbidity development affects the risk of all-cause mortality to varying degrees in diabetic patients on different antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications.

Epidemiological studies indicate that skipping breakfast as a universal behavior, may have adverse effects on cardiovascular diseases [CVDs}and metabolic diseases. However, eating breakfast regularly, may increase satiety, thereby reducing overeating later in the day which prevents weight gain. Recent studies indicate that skipping breakfast increases the risk of obesity, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary artery disease (CAD), and cardiovascular mortality as well as all-cause mortality. However, many studies also reported that regular taking of breakfast decreases the risk of CVDs and T2DM and all-cause mortality. Previous studies reported that heavy breakfast, in particular eating western diet may increase circadian rhythm of CVDs and sudden cardiac death. It seems that those who do not eat breakfast, they tend to eat refined and sweetened products, possibly, more in the night resulting in to greater risk of CVDs and T2DM. Breakfast skipping and eating in the night, may be associated with circadian misalignment in the central and peripheral clocks, leading to oxidative stress and inflammation. Increased systemic inflammation damages the adipocytes, beta cells of pancreas, endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells as well as neurons, which may produce dysfunction in these cells resulting in to related diseases. The beneficial effects of breakfast, may also be, at least in part, due to nutrient dense foods rather than time of eating. Eating regular breakfast, in particular rich in Indo-Mediterranean foods; vegetables, whole grains, fruits, spices and nuts may be protective against circadian increase in oxidative stress in the morning, resulting in to significant decline in the risk of CVDs and T2DM.

Abstract: Background: Our goal was to evaluate whether wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) such as an N95, or a surgical mask during the (COVID-19) pandemic had really reduced the cases of influenza in the state of Wisconsin. Methods: Respiratory Virus Surveillance Reports from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were used to compare the rates of Influenza during the seasons of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021. Results: The number of cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates with Influenza had significantly decreased in the 2020-2021 season compared to the Influenza season of 2018-2019. Discussion: Reducing the burden of influenza illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths on the health care system is imperative. Wearing masks should be addressed for the most vulnerable.

The association between angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion (ACE I/D) polymorphisms and plasma ACE levels may allow for the optimization of a preventive intervention to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. In this study, we aimed to analyze the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and cardiovascular mortality risk among non-hemodialyzed chronic kidney disease patients. This cross-sectional study examined 70 patients of Javanese ethnic origin with stable CKD who did not receive hemodialysis. ACE I/D polymorphisms, plasma ACE levels, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, and cardiovascular mortality risk were investigated. As per our findings, the I allele was found to be more frequent (78.6) than the D allele (21.4), and the DD genotype was less frequent than the II genotype (4.3 vs. 61.4). The ACE I/D polymorphism had a significant direct positive effect on plasma ACE levels (path coefficient = 0.302, p = 0.021). Similarly, plasma ACE levels had a direct and significant positive effect on the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (path coefficient = 0.410, p = 0.000). Moreover, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk had a significant positive effect on cardiovascular mortality risk (path coefficient = 0.918, p = 0.000). The ACE I/D polymorphism had no direct effect on ASCVD and cardiovascular mortality risk. However, our findings show that the indirect effects of high plasma ACE levels may be a factor in the increased risk of ASCVD and cardiovascular mortality in Javanese CKD patients.

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 hours after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate mortality risk of initial SOFA score plus Imp-R. Harrell's C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84) respectively. The DCA showed that combining SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusion: The addition of Imp-R to baseline SOFA score at admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.

Long-term, multi-decade research on planted tree survival in urban settings is sparse. One understudied urban environment is highway rights-of-way (ROW), lands adjacent to high-speed, unsignalized roadways. We conducted a re-inventory of tree planting cohort in northern Illinois, U.S. on a 48 km-long highway near Chicago which were 10-, 21-, and 30-years old to evaluate long-term patterns of survival and diversity. Using each randomly selected planting site along the highway as a unit of observation and analysis, we compared the number of trees documented in record drawing to the number of trees currently alive to determine percent survival. We evaluated 224 planting sites which originally contained 2,944 trees and collected data about the planting site location. For the oldest cohort, 26% of trees were still alive in 2018 (median survival by species = 16%, Q1 = 0%, Q3 = 48%), while 31% of the 21-year-old cohort (med. = 6%, Q1 = 0%, Q3 = 47%) and 86% of the 10-year-old cohort were still alive (med. = 85%, Q1 = 74%, Q3 = 96%). The survival of the 21- and 30-year-old cohort matches urban tree survival estimates by other researchers, while the 10-year-old survival is higher than expected. The only planting location characteristic that significantly affected survival was traffic islands (areas between the highway and entrance/exit ramps). Species with low drought tolerance were less likely to be alive for the 10-year-old cohort. Waterlogging tolerant species were more likely to be alive in the 10-year-old cohort. Since some species in the 21- and 30-year-old cohorts had very low survival, the tree species richness and diversity s in study areas declined between the initial record drawings and reinventory. This study demonstrates the challenges of maintaining long-term survival and diversity in the highway ROW and emphasizes the importance of species selection.

Low serum alanine aminotransferase activity and high aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/ALT ratio may be associated with high mortality in older people. We aimed to confirm this in an 8-year retrospective cohort study. Clinical data for 5,958 people aged 67–104 years were analyzed for their relationships with all-cause mortality using artificial intelligence (AI; Prediction One [Sony Network Communications Inc.]) and conventional statistical analysis (SAS Enterprise Guide [SAS Institute Inc.]). In total, 1,413 (23.7%) participants died during the study. Auto-AI analysis with five rounds of cross-validation showed that AST/ALT ratio was the third largest contributor to mortality, following age and sex. Serum albumin concentration and body mass index were the fourth and fifth largest contributors, and the individual serum ALT and AST activities were the seventh and tenth largest contributors. Conventional survival analysis showed that ALT, AST, and AST/ALT ratio as continuous variables were all associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 0.98 (0.97–0.99), 1.02 (1.02–1.03), 1.46 (1.32–1.62), respectively; all p <0.0001). In conclusion, both AI and conventional analysis suggest that of the conventional biochemical markers, high AST/ALT ratio is most closely associated with all-cause mortality in older people.

Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1970’s to 1980’s. There is evidence that this decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter, and that the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900’s to around March since 1967. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM was examined using a large international data set. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity – all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.

Cervical cancer is a public health issue with high disease burden and mortality in Brazil. The objectives of the present study were analyzing age, period, and cohort effects on cervical cancer mortality in women 20 years old or older from 1980 to 2019 in the North, South, and Southeast Regions of Brazil; and evaluating whether the implementation of a national screening program and the expansion of access to public health services caused impacts over the examined period and reduced the risk of death over the past years and among younger cohorts. The effects were estimated by applying Poisson regression models with estimable functions. The highest mortality rate by 100,000 women was found in Amazonas (24.13), and the lowest in São Paulo (10.56). A positive gradient was obtained for death rates as women’s age increased. The states in the most developed regions (South and Southeast) showed a reduction in the risk of death in the period that followed the implementation of the screening program and in cohort from the 1960s onwards. The North Region showed a decreased risk of death only in Amapá (2000–2004) and Tocantins (1995–2004; 2010–2019). The findings indicated that health inequities remain in Brazil and suggested that the health system has limitations regarding decreasing mortality associated with this type of cancer in regions with lower socioeconomic development.

The implications of the adult congenital heart disease anatomic and physiological classification (AP-ACHD) for risk assessment have not been adequately studied. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from an ongoing national, multicentre registry of patients with ACHD and atrial arrhythmias (AA) receiving apixaban (PROTECT-AR study, NCT03854149). At enrollment, patients were stratified according to Anatomic class (AnatC, range I to III) and physiological stage (PhyS, range B to D). Follow-up was conducted between May 2019 and September 2021. The primary outcome was a composite of death from any cause, any major thromboembolic event, major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding, or hospitalization. Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling was used to evaluate the risks for the outcome among AP-ACHD classes. Over a median 20-month follow-up period, 47 of 157 (29.9%) ACHD patients with AA experienced the composite outcome. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals [CI] for the outcome in PhyS C and PhyS D were 1.84 (95% CI 0.73 to 4.61) and 7.88 (95% CI 1.54 to 40.41) respectively, as compared with PhyS B. The corresponding aHRs in AnatC II and AnatC III were 1.10 (95% CI 0.39 to 3.06) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.24 to 4.10) respectively, as compared with AnatC I. In conclusion, the PhyS component of the AP-ACHD classification was an independent predictor of net adverse clinical events among ACHD patients with AA receiving apixaban.

Background: Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. Objective: To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. Results: The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the second phase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. Conclusions: Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.

The current availability of electronic health records represents an excellent research opportunity on multimorbidity, one of the most relevant public health problems nowadays. However, it also poses a methodological challenge due to the current lack of tools to access, harmonize and reuse research datasets. In FAIR4Health, a European Horizon 2020 project, a workflow to implement the FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) principles on health datasets was developed, as well as two tools aimed at facilitating the transformation of raw datasets into FAIR ones and the preservation of data privacy. As part of this project, we conducted a multicentric retrospective observational study to apply the aforementioned FAIR implementation workflow and tools to five European health datasets for research on multimorbidity. We applied a federated frequent pattern growth association algorithm to identify the most frequent combinations of chronic diseases and their association with mortality risk. We identified several multimorbidity patterns clinically plausible and consistent with the bibliography, some of which were strongly associated with mortality. Our results show the usefulness of the solution developed in FAIR4Health to overcome the difficulties in data management and highlight the importance of implementing a FAIR data policy to accelerate responsible health research.

The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that affect the mortality among adult HIV/TB co-infected patients and to see the nutritional difference among mortality in residence level. Retrospective cohort studies of 417 patients which fulfill our criteria were included. Multilevel logistic regression models were used. MLwiN and SPSS software are used to estimate the parameter. The variance of the random factor in the empty model was significant which indicates that there were residential differences in TB-HIV co-infected mortality and it shows multilevel analysis was an appropriate approach for further analysis. The prevalence of HIV/TB co-infected patients' death was 12.9% in study time. Functional status, age of patients, WHO clinical stages, nutritional status, CD4 counts, regimen, and BMI were found to be significant determinants of HIV/TB co-infected mortality. In our study, patients with the bedridden category of functional status, the fourth stages of WHO clinical stages (stage IV), patients with higher age, patients whose treatments were second-line regimen and low CD4 cell counts were more at risk of death. The study also revealed that; poor nutritional status increased the risk of mortality among HIV/TB co-infected patients and it varies among the residence of the patients (rural area were more at risk).

This research work deals with traffic accidents that are very concurrent in several countries, which in turn contribute to the mortality rate from 19 to 25 years of age and up. In the research work, immediate notifications for traffic accidents were carried out through a mobile application (app) where it will have an emergency button which will help the injured a lot, since the nearest help centers such as the police, fire brigades and the nearest hospitals, so that they can provide support to the people who suffered the accident. In the project, the implementation of Scrum Methodology was used since it served us an amount for the development of the prototypes of the App, and in turn with their roles it did not serve much help for the project, however, passers-by are of vital importance already that they will be the ones to make said report when observing a traffic accident and thus notify the nearest aid centers. As data collection for the creation of the software functions, a survey was carried out with more than 30 people, the functions applied in the application were programmed with the Dart language and generated under the flutter tool in order to be able to distribute it on different platforms such as Play Store and AppStore. The results obtained were the most anticipated since the application fulfills its function, thus reducing deaths and improving the speed of attention to traffic accidents and thus saving a life that is in danger.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent diseases and the second leading cause of death worldwide. However, the relationship between CRC and cerebrovascular-specific mortality (CVSM) remains elusive and less is known about the influencing factors associated with CVSM in CRC. Here, we aimed to analyze the incidence as well as the risk factors of CVSM in CRC. Methods: Patients with a primary CRC diagnosed between 1973 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database with follow-up data available until 31 December 2016. Conditional standardized mortality ratios were calculated to compare the incidence of CVSM between CRC patients and the general US population. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses with a competing risk model were used to interrogate the risk factors for CVSM. Results: A total of 563298 CRC individuals were included. The CVSM in CRC patients was significantly higher than the general population in all age subgroups. Among competing causes of death in patients, the cumulative mortality caused by cerebrovascular-specific diseases steadily increased during study period. While age and surgery positively influenced CVSM on both univariate and multivariate analyses, male patients and those who had radiotherapy, chemotherapy, more recent year (2001-2015) of diagnosis as well as multiple primary or distant tumors experienced a lower risk of CVSM. Interpretation: Our data suggest a potential role for CRC in the incidence of CVSM and also identify several significant predictors of CVSM, which may be helpful for risk stratification and therapeutic optimization of cerebrovascular-specific diseases in CRC patients.

Abstract – Objective: Ovarian cancer, although not possessing a high incidence, is still the most common cancer-related deaths among women diagnosed with a gynecologic malignancy. The present study aims to highlight the epidemiology, risk factors of this disease and the significance of development of improved early detection strategies. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted using current published English studies by searching PubMed and Google Scholar. The search strategy included the keywords “ovarian cancer”, “diagnosis”, “risk factors”, “screening”, “epidemiology”. Studies on incidence and mortality were also considered. Case reports were excluded.Results: The highest incidence and mortality rates are observed in Central and Eastern Europe, while rates are relatively low in Asia and Africa. These rates are highest among the white population (14.3 per 100,000) and lowest among blacks (10 per 100,000) and Asians (9.7 per 100,000). The risk factors for this disease includes a family history, hormonal factors, nutrition and diet and physical activity, with some of them playing protective roles in reducing risk of ovarian cancers. There are no reliable screening methods for ovarian cancers. The most common diagnosis methods include a transvaginal ultrasound and a blood test to detect CA125 markers.Conclusions: The mortality rate of ovarian cancer is gradually increasing; thus, preventative measures are required to reduce lifetime risk of ovarian cancers and improve mortality rate.

We tested the hypothesis that obesity influences the pharmacodynamics of volatile general anesthetics (VGAs) by comparing effects of anesthetic exposure on mortality from traumatic brain injury (TBI) in lean and obese Drosophila melanogaster. We induced TBI with a High-Impact Trauma device. Starvation-selection over multiple generations resulted in an obese phenotype (SS flies). Fed flies served as lean controls (FC flies). Adult (1-7 day old) SS and FC flies were exposed to equianesthetic doses of isoflurane or sevoflurane either before or after TBI. The principal outcome was percent mortality 24 hours after injury, expressed as the Mortality Index at 24 hours (MI24). TBI resulted in lower MI24 in FC than in SS flies (21 (2.35) and 57.8 (2.14), respectively n= 12, p=0.0001). Preexposure to isoflurane or sevoflurane preconditioned FC flies to TBI reducing the risk of death to 0.53 [0.25 to 1.13] and 0.82 [0.43 to 1.58], respectively, but had no preconditioning effect in SS flies. Postexposure to isoflurane or sevoflurane increased the risk of death in SS flies. Only postexposure to isoflurane increased the risk in FC flies (1.39 [0.81 to 2.38]). Thus, obesity affects the pharmacodynamics of VGAs, thwarting the preconditioning effect of isoflurane and sevoflurane in TBI.

Background: Heat waves are correlated with increased mortality in the aged population. Social isolation is known as a vulnerability factor. This study aims at evaluating the correlation between an intervention to reduce social isolation and the increase in mortality in the population over 80 during heat waves. Methods: The study adopts a retrospective ecologic design. We compared the excess mortality rate (EMR) in the over 80 population during heat waves in urban areas of Rome (Italy), where a program to reduce social isolation was implemented compared to others where it was not implemented. We measured mortality of the summer periods from 2015 to 2019 compared with 2014 (a year without heat waves). Winter mortality, cadastral income and proportion of over 90 were included in the multivariate Poisson regression. Results: The EMR in the intervention and controls was 2.70% and 3.81%, respectively. Rate ratio 0.70 (c.i. 0.54 - 0.92, p-value 0.01). The Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) of the interventions with respect to the controls is 0.76 (c.i. 0.59 - 0.98). After adjusting for other variables, the IRR was 0.44 (c.i. 0.32 - 0.60). Conclusions: Reducing social isolation could limit the impact of heat waves on the mortality of the elderly population.

A widely accepted concept is that boys are more susceptible than girls to oxidative stress related complications of prematurity, including bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and periventricular leukomalacia (PVL). We aimed to quantify the effect size of this male disadvantage by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies exploring the association between sex and complications of prematurity. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated by a random-effects model. Of 1365 potentially relevant studies, 41 met the inclusion criteria (625680 infants). Male sex was associated with decreased risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, fetal distress, and C-section, but increased risk of low Apgar score, intubation at birth, respiratory distress, surfactant use, pneumothorax, postnatal steroids, late onset sepsis, any NEC, NEC&gt;stage 1 (RR 1.12, CI 1.06-1.18), any IVH, severe IVH (RR 1.28, CI 1.22-1.34), severe IVH or PVL, any BPD, moderate/severe BPD (RR 1.23, CI 1.18-1.27), severe ROP (RR 1.14, CI 1.07-1.22), and mortality (RR 1.23, CI 1.16-1.30). In conclusion, preterm boys have higher clinical instability and greater need for invasive interventions than preterm girls. This leads to a male disadvantage in mortality and short-term complications of prematurity.

(1) Background: In patients suffering from heart failure, the main causes of death are either he-modynamic failure, or ventricular arrhythmias. The only tool to significantly reduce arrhythmic sudden death is the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), but not all patients benefit to the same extend of these devices. (2) Methods: The primary outcome of this single center study was defined as cardiovascular death in patients with ischemic and non-ischemic heart failure who have benefited from ICD therapy. The secondary outcomes were death from any cause, sudden cardiac death, ICD-related therapies (appropriate antitachycardia pacing or shock therapy for ventricular tachycardia or fi-brillation) and recurrences of ventricular tachyarrhythmias. (3) Results: A total of 403 consecutive ICD recipients – symptomatic heart failure patients with ICD for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death – were included retrospectively: 59% is-chemic cardiomyopathy (ICMP) and 41% non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICMP). Within a median follow-up period of 36 months, the incidence of cardiovascular mortality was not signif-icantly different in patients with NICMP and ICMP: the primary outcome had occurred in 9 pa-tients (5.4%) in the NICMP group and in 14 patients (5.9%) in the ICMP group (hazard ratio 1; 95%confidence interval [CI] 0.45 to 2.28; p =0.97). All-cause mortality occurred in 14 of 166 pa-tients (8.4%) in NICMP group and 18 of 237 patients (7.6%) in ICMP group. Sudden cardiac death occurred in 2 patients (1.2%) in the NICMP group and in 4 patients (1.7%) in the ICMP group (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% CI, 0.13 to 3.88; P=0.69). The rate of appropriate device therapies was comparable in both groups. (4) Conclusion: In this study, ICD implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in patients with symptomatic systolic heart failure was associated with similar rates of cardiovas-cular and all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease, and in patients with heart failure from other causes. NICMP and ICMP showed comparable rates of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias and appropriate ICD therapies.

Fever remains an integral part of the acute clinical diseases management, esp. viral, for which effective therapeutics remain desired. However, the presence of often confusing fever reduction recommendations for COVID-19 in the public domain during the pandemic, as late as 28 April 2021, seems to suggest the reduction of any ‘uncomfortable’ fever ranging from 37.8 - 39oC, as opposed to WHO fever reduction guidelines (≥39oC), urgently need attention. The confusion could percolate down into different agencies who look up to these agencies for guidance in framing their own, denying the benefits of fever to populations, and effectively undo whatever successive WHO’s guidelines have achieved in the last two decades. The existence of conflicting guidelines in public domains which are open to interpretations has consequences to public health and the healthcare infrastructure, on implementation. For controlling acute infectious diseases, esp. viral, the fever remains the most important enabler. Historically, our chief obstacles to harnessing the benefits of fever in acute clinical diseases with limited therapeutics had been: a) widespread myths about ‘fevers’ arising from a general misunderstanding of basic facts; b) presence of confusing guidelines by different agencies which are open to alternate interpretation. The article attempts to briefly indicate the benefits of fever in disease resolution, dispel myths, underline vagueness in illustrative national guidelines and the need to align them with evidence-based WHO guidelines, as it has the potential to perpetuate myths/confusion in masses leading to adverse impact on disease management – more morbidity and mortality from diseases including COVID-19.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality, therefore new parameters regarding risk stratification are sought after. In patients admitted for acute PE we investigated associations between the initial coagulation impairment, expressed by prothrombin time international normalised ratio (INR), and parameters reflecting PE severity. Furthermore, in-hospital, 30-day and long-term mortality were also evaluated. The analysis included 848 patients who were divided into two groups: with normal INR≤1.2, and elevated INR>1.2 (252 patients, 29.7%). The group with elevated INR presented higher incidence of tachycardia and lower systolic blood pressure, higher CRP, d-dimer, and NT-proBNP. This group presented higher estimated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (49 IQR39-62mmHg vs 43 IQR32-53mmHg, p<0.001) and shorter pulmonary artery acceleration time (65 IQR55-85ms vs 81 IQR63-102ms; p<0.001). Patients with elevated INR had more often a sPESI of 1 or higher (78%vs60%, p=0.003). Cox regression model revealed that age, leukocyte level, SBP, neoplasm, and INR are associated with higher risk of death (p<0.001). Finally, elevated INR was associated with higher in-hospital (13%vs3%; p<0.001), 30-day (19%vs6%; p<0.001), and long-term mortality (p<0.001). Summing up, elevated INR on admission is frequent in patients with PE, reflects worse clinical condition and is related to PE severity and prognosis.

Perinatal mortality is a major issue in laboratory mouse breeding. We compared a counting method using daily checks (DAILY_CHECK) with a method combining daily checks with detailed video analyses to detect cannibalisms (VIDEO_TRACK) for estimating the number of C57BL/6 pups born, died and weaned in 193 litters from trios with (TRIO-OVERLAP) or without (TRIO-NO_OVERLAP) the presence of another litter. Linear mixed models were used at litter level. To understand if cannibalism was associated with active killing (infanticide), we analysed VIDEO_TRACK recordings of 109 litters from TRIO-OVERLAP, TRIO-NO_OVERLAP or SOLO (single dams). We used Kaplan-Meier method and logistic regression at pup level. For DAILY_CHECK, the mean litter size was 35% smaller than for VIDEO_TRACK (P&lt;0.0001) and the number of dead pups was twice lower (P&lt;0.0001). The risk of pup loss was higher for TRIO-OVERLAP than TRIO-NO_OVERLAP (P&lt;0.0001). A high number of pup losses occurred between birth and the first cage checking. Analyses of VIDEO_TRACK data indicated that pups were clearly dead at the start of most of the cannibalism events and infanticide was rare. As most pups die and disappear before the first cage check, many breeding facilities are likely to be unaware of their real rates of mouse pup mortality.

Septic shock substantially alters the pharmacokinetic properties of ß-lactams with a subsequently high risk of insufficiently low serum concentrations and treatment failure. Considering their pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) index, prolonged infusions (PI) of ß-lactams extend the time that the unbound fraction of the drug remains above the minimal inhibitory concentration MIC (ft >MIC) and may improve patient survival. The present study is a monocentric, retrospective before-and-after analysis of septic shock patients treated with ß-lactams. Patients of the years 2015-2017 received intermittent bolus application whereas patients of 2017-2020 received PI of ß-lactams. The primary outcome was mortality at day 30 and 90 after diagnosis of septic shock. Mortality rates in the PI group were significantly lower on day 30 (PI: 41%, n=119/290 vs. IB: 54.8%, n=68/114; p=0.0097) and day 90 (PI: 47.9%, n=139/290 vs. IB: 62.9%, n=78/124; p=0.005). After propensity-score matching, 30- and 90-day mortality remained lower for the PI group (-10%). PI further reduced duration of invasive ventilation. PI of β-lactam antibiotics led to a stronger decrease in SOFA scores within a 14d-observation period. PI of ß-lactams significantly reduces mortality in patients with septic shock and may have beneficial effects on invasive ventilation and recovery from sepsis-related organ failure.

The harrowing second wave of COVID-19 in India has led to much discussion over the quality and timeliness of reporting of deaths attributed to the pandemic. In this brief report, we aim to present the existing evidence, as well as the broader complexities surrounding the mortality burden of COVID-19 in India. This article sheds light on the following epidemiological issues: (1) general and India-specific challenges to COVID-19 death reporting, (2) latest COVID-19 mortality estimates in India as of May 16, 2021, (3) the apparent scale of uncaptured COVID-19 deaths, and (4) the role of disaggregated historic mortality trends in quantification of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. We conclude with a set of high-level policy recommendations for improving the vital surveillance system and tracking of causes of death in India. We encourage direct efforts to integrate health data and indirect strategies for cross-validation of registered deaths. Such system-wide advances would drastically aid epidemiological research efforts and strengthen India’s position to overcome future public health crises.

Introduction: Over decades, much have been said and done regarding under-five mortality in Ethiopia. The country has been following the lead of sustainable development goals and UNICEF with its transformation plan targets. However, unless the efforts supported by status assessing studies, it might be difficult for the country to progress. Thus, the current study was directed to identify the prevalence and associated factors of under-five mortality in 2019. Methods: According to the study criteria, we extract and cleaned data in STATA v. 15.0. The data then weighted as per the sampling weight, primary sampling unit, and strata before analyzing in STATA 15.0. Data management consisted of descriptive (mean, standard deviation, and proportion or percent) and association statistics. We deliberated binary logistic regression for this analysis and we checked each variable at 0.25 p-values to include in the model. The final p-value to declare association was p <0.05 and AOR with 95% CI was also applied to describe the results. The data source was the Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey (EMDHS) 2019. EMDHS collected the data from 8,885 in a face-to-face manner with a 99% response rate. Results: From 5,527 numbers of weighted women with under-five analysed in this study, the proportion of under-five mortality was 277.23(5.02%). Factors like 2nd birth order 0.52(0.35, 0.79), 3rd-4th 0.49(0.28, 0.84), 1-2 ANC visits 0.24(0.12, 0.49, ANC visit three’ 0.14(0.07, 0.28), ANC visit four and above 0.22(0.14, 0.36), in marriage mother 0.43(0.19, 0.96), ‘1-2 under-five children 0.02(0.011, 0.03), and greater than three under-five children 0.007(0.0007, 0.004) were all negatively associated with under-five mortality rate. Conclusion: To obtain the exalted outcome out of this study, the government might need to increase antenatal care, women education, institutional delivery, and the modern contraceptive methods use through enhanced community mobilization, health education using community health workers, increasing access to essential cares of mothers and children, and the policy commitment for the issues related to family size, birth order, and birth interval.

Globally, over the past several months millions of persons contracted the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulting in significant mortality. Health care systems are negatively impacted including the care of individuals with cancers and other chronic diseases such as chronic active hepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. There are various probable pathogenic mechanisms that have been presented to account for liver injury in COVID-19 patients such as hepatotoxicity cause by therapeutic drugs, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection of the bile duct cells and hepatocytes, hypoxia and systemic inflammatory response. Liver biochemistry tests such as AST, ALT, GGT and ALP are deranged in COVID-19 patients with liver injury. Hepatocellular damage results in the elevation of serum AST and ALT levels in early onset disease while a cholestatic pattern that develops as the disease progress causes higher levels of ALP, GGT, direct and total bilirubin. These liver biochemistry tests are prognostic markers of disease severity and should be carefully monitored in COVID-19 patients. We conducted a systematic review of abnormal liver biochemistry tests in COVID-19 and the possible pathogenesis involved. Significant findings regarding the severity, hepatocellular pattern, incidence and related clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients are highlighted.

This study aligns with the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals- 3 which aim to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. It contributes to the nascent literature stream on energy-health dynamics by introducing a holistic theoretical model to empirically examine the mediation effect of carbon emissions on the relationship between nonrenewable energy and infant mortality rates. Using an unbalanced panel data on 42 Asia and the Pacific countries from 2005 to 2015 and deploying the structural equation modeling approach, the empirical results are surmised as follows: (i) in regard to the full sample of countries, nonrenewable energy indirectly increases infant mortality rates through increasing carbon emissions. In other words, carbon emissions play a partial mediation role between nonrenewable energy and infant mortality rates; and (ii) for the different income groups, carbon emissions show varying mediation effects. For example, the mediation effects of carbon emissions in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries are found to be similar to those of the full sample of countries. Therefore, based on these findings, we conclude that nonrenewable energy is an essential determinant of infant mortality rates. Policy recommendations are put forward.

Postpartum hemorrhage is a complication during the puerperium that requires serious management, because it risks on threatening the mother's death. Currently, postpartum hemorrhage is still the main cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in the world. There is a need for a fast, precise and comprehensive handling effort involving all elements, such as the entire health team including doctors-nurses and families. The form of nursing intervention in postpartum hemorrhage patients can be in the form of nursing treatment or collaboration. The purpose of this review literature is to identify nursing treatment and nursing collaboration in postpartum hemorrhage patients as an effort to prevent maternal death. The writing method uses literature reviews by summarizing 10 articles publicated in 2019, 2020 and 2021 in 4 search data bases including Sciencedirect, Scopus, Proquest and Thompson. The review guidelines used are based on Prisma and the Joanna Briggs Institutute. The level of eligibility is identified through the title, abstract, research methodology and full text. The results of the reviews found are presented in a narrative form. The results of the review study found that there were 10 articles on postpartum hemorrhage management measures both in the effort of snoring treatment and collaboration including: optimizing the competence of service providers based on E_Learning , foot reflexology since the 4th stage of labor, 800 mcg sublingual Misoprostol, the use of the Digital Postpartum Hemorrhage Management Device ( DPHMD), bilateral-contralateral cervical clamps, suction tube uterine tampons, bilateral hypogastric artery (BHAL), evaluation of Shock Index, Carbetocin drugs and administration of Tranexamic acid 1 gram IV within 10 minutes of vaginal delivery. The conclusion of this review literature is that nursing treatment and nursing collaboration are proven to have a positive impact as an effort to prevent death in postpartum hemorrhage patients.

Objectives We tested the hypothesis that poor adherence is associated with a greater risk of alcohol-caused mortality and morbidities within the first year of discontinuing this medication. Materials and Methods Retrospective cohort study of 3319 individuals who received Acamprosate® in the East of Scotland in a 10-year period using a health informatics approach with record linkage of dispensing data, hospital utilization (SMR) and General Register Office of Scotland (GROS) data. Primary outcome was adherence between one to six months of initiating Acamprosate® medication. Secondary outcome was all cause morbidities and mortality. Results Of the total 3319 individuals identified, good adherence index of >80% was found in 59% of those prescribed Acamprosate® after three months and 6% after six months. There were significant linear trends of poorer adherence with increased risk of alcohol-caused mortality (HR1.2), medical morbidities especially neoplasm (HR 4.1|) and poisoning (HR 1.4) and psychiatric morbidities especially stress (HR 35.1), psychotic (HR 5.6) and neurotic disorders and directly alcohol induced conditions (7.4 HR) after adjustment for other factors within a one-year period of initiation of Acamprosate® treatment. Discussion and Conclusions Further exploratory studies using this digitalized approach should be encouraged in order to capture role of compliance to Acamprosate® and other types of medication that are known to reduce relapse into alcohol dependence and its direct relationship to mortality and morbidities in this population.

(1) Background: Extremely low alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels are be-ing recognized as a risk factor of increasing mortality in the elderly in relation to frailty. In the elderly, both frailty and ischemic stroke are not only common, but also associated with mortality. This study aimed to investigate whether extremely low ALT levels increase the all-cause mortality rate in the elderly after ischemic stroke. (2) Methods: A retrospective review was performed on 901 patients with ischemic stroke admitted to a university-affiliated hospital between February 2014 and April 2019. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to determine whether extremely low ALT lev-els are an independent risk factor of mortality in elderly patients after ischem-ic stroke. (3) Results: This study enrolled 323 older adults (age ≥65 years) who were first diagnosed with ischemic stroke. The mean age of the participants was 76.5 ± 6.6 years, mean survival time was 37.1 ± 20.4 months, and the num-ber of deaths was 96 (29.7%). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analy-sis revealed that the risk factors for all-cause mortality in the elderly after is-chemic stroke were age, initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, serum creatinine, and extremely low ALT level (<10 U/L) at the time of diag-nosis (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.243, 95% confidence interval: 1.945–5.408; P < 0.001) (4) Conclusions: Extremely low ALT level at the time of diagnosis (<10 U/L) is an independent risk factor that increases the mortality rate in the el-derly after ischemic stroke.

Hip fractures are an important socio-economic problem in western countries. Over the past 60 years orthogeriatric care has improved the management of older patients admitted to hospital after suffering hip fractures. Orthogeriatric co-management units have increased quality of care, reducing adverse events during acute admission, length of stay, both in-hospital and mid-term mortality, as well as healthcare and social costs. Nevertheless, a large number of areas of controversy regarding the clinical management of older adults admitted due to hip fracture remain to be clarified. This narrative review, centered in the last 5 years, combined the search terms “hip fracture”, “geriatric assessment”, “second hip fracture”, “surgery”, “perioperative management” and “orthogeriatric care”, in order to summarise the state of the art of some questions such as the optimum analgesic protocol, the best approach for treating anemia, the surgical options recommendable for each type of fracture and the efficiency of orthogeriatric co-management and functional recovery.

Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality among adult patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK. Design Observational cohort study. Setting 287 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, of which 260 admitted at least one eligible patient. Participants 10,933 patients with confirmed COVID-19 of whom 10,401 were eligible (excluding 532 patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hours and 1 patient with unknown 28-day outcome): 8,666 development (March-April 2020) and 1,735 temporal validation (May-August 2020). Main outcome measures 28-day in-hospital mortality from start of critical care. Results Two models were developed using 14 patient level predictors selected from 30 candidate predictors, with and without adjustment for calendar time. In the temporal validation data, the model discrimination was maintained (c index 0.78) but calibration was poor, particularly for the model not adjusted for calendar time (ratio of observed to predicted mortality 0.74 versus 0.88 for the model adjusted for calendar time). Conclusions We developed and validated a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for patients critically ill with COVID-19. Although absolute predictions were inaccurate due to changing outcomes, the models will support risk-adjustment in analyses and monitoring changes in risk-adjusted outcome over time.

(1) Background: To investigate the dynamic issues behind international variation in EWM. (2) A rolling EWM calculation is used to reveal seasonal changes in the EWM calculation and is especially relevant nearer to the equator. (3) Results: In addition to latitude country specific factors determine EWM. Females generally show higher EWM mainly due to respiratory conditions. The EWM for respiratory conditions in England and Wales ranges from 44% to 83% which is about double the all-cause mortality equivalent. Age has a profound effect on EWM with a peak in puberty and then increasing EWM at old age. The gap between male and female EWM seems to act as a diagnostic tool reflecting the infectious/metrological mix in each winter. Additional difference due to ethnicity are also observed. An EWM equivalent calculation for sickness absence demonstrates how additional health-related variables can be linked to EWM. (4) Conclusions: EWM does not reach a peak at the same time each year, especially so in the tropics. Countries midway between the equator and the poles show highest EWM. Differences between the genders are highly significant and seem to vary according to the mix of variables active each winter. Pandemic influenza does not elevate EWM, although seasonal influenza plays a part each winter.

Optimal breastfeeding practices among mothers have been proven to have health and economic benefits, but evidence on breastfeeding practices among adolescent mothers in Bangladesh is limited. Hence, this study aims to estimate breastfeeding indicators and factors associated with selected feeding practices. The sample included 2554 children aged 0-23 months of adolescent mothers aged 12-19 years from four Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys collected between 2004 and 2014. Breastfeeding indicators were estimated using World Health Organization indicators. Selected feeding indicators were examined against potential confounding factors using univariate and multivariate analyses. Only 42.2% of adolescent mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour of birth, 53% exclusively breastfed their infants, predominant breastfeeding was 17.3%, and 15.7% bottle-fed their children. Parity (2-3 children), older infants and adolescent mothers who made postnatal check-up after two days were associated with increased exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) rates. Adolescent mothers aged 12-18 years and who watched television were less likely to delay breastfeeding initiation within the first hour of birth. Adolescent mothers who delivered at home (adjusted OR=2.63, 95% CI:1.86, 3.74) and made postnatal check-up after two days (adjusted OR=1.67, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.30) were significantly more likely to delay initiation breastfeeding within the first hour of birth. Younger infants, adolescent mothers living in Barisal region and who listened to radio reported increased odds of predominant breastfeeding and increased odds for bottle-feeding included male infants, an infant aged 0-5 months, Adolescent mothers who had eight or more antenatal clinic visits and richest wealth quintiles. In order for Bangladesh to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 and 3 by 2030, breastfeeding promotion programmes should discourage bottle-feeding among adolescent mothers from richest households and promote early initiation of breastfeeding especially among adolescent mothers who delivered at home and had late postnatal check-up after delivery

Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused ~ 2 million fatalities. Significant progress has been made in advancing our understanding of the disease process, one of the unanswered questions, however, is the anomaly in the case/mortality ratio with Mexico as a clear example. Herein, this anomaly is explored by spatial analysis and whether mortality varies locally according to local factors. To address this, hexagonal cartogram maps (hexbin) used to spatially map COVID-19 mortality and visualise association with patient-level data on demographics and pre-existing health conditions. This was further interrogated at local Mexico City level by choropleth mapping. Our data show that the use of hexagonal cartograms is a better approach for spatial mapping of COVID-19 data in Mexico as it addresses bias in area size and population. We report sex/age-related spatial relationship with mortality amongst the Mexican states and a trend between health conditions and mortality at the state level. Within Mexico City, there is a clear south, north divide with higher mortality in the northern municipalities. Deceased patients in these northern municipalities have the highest pre-existing health conditions. Taken together, this study provides an improved presentation of COVID-19 mapping in Mexico and demonstrates spatial divergence of the mortality in Mexico.

Introduction: We describe the clinical features and inpatient trajectories of older adults hospitalized with COVID-19, and explore relationships with frailty. Methods: This retrospective observational study included older adults admitted as an emergency to a University Hospital who were diagnosed with COVID-19. Patient characteristics and hospital outcomes, primarily inpatient death or death within 14 days of discharge, were described for the whole cohort and by frailty status. Associations with mortality were further evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression (Hazard Ratio [HR], 95% Confidence Interval). Results: 214 patients (94 women) were included of whom 142 (66.4%) were frail with a median Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score of 6. Frail compared to non-frail patients were more likely to present with atypical symptoms including new or worsening confusion (45.1% vs 20.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to die (66% vs 16%, p=0.001). Older age, being male, presenting with high illness acuity and high frailty were independent predictors of death and a dose-response association between frailty and mortality was observed (CFS 1-4: reference; CFS 5-6: HR 1.78, 95% CI 0.90, 3.53; CFS 7-8: HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26, 5.24). Conclusions: Clinicians should have a low threshold for testing for COVID-19 in older and frail patients during periods of community viral transmission and diagnosis should prompt early advanced care planning.

Background. The Weekly Mortality Cycle among CoViD-19 patients has been studied.Methods. Mortality data obtained from the 'Worldometer' website were analyzed with a comparison of absolute values, percentages, and p-value. Results. For patients suffering from CoViD-19, the most favorable or the safest days of the week were Sundays and Mondays. Conclusion. The weekly cycle with decreased mortality on Sundays and Mondays is a unique phenomenon observed among victims of CoViD-19. Presumably the decreased mortality on certain days of the week related to the optimized therapeutic protocols used on the "safest days".