Version 1
: Received: 13 March 2023 / Approved: 15 March 2023 / Online: 15 March 2023 (01:55:15 CET)
How to cite:
Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1.
Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints 2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1.
Cite as:
Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1.
Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints 2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1.
Abstract
(1) Background: This paper investigates the epidemiological risk related to temperature before and during COVID-19 in Italy; (2) Methods: Deaths in 2015-2019 and temperatures were correlated. Excess and COVID-19 deaths were examined to estimate the relationships with temperatures; (3) Results: Annual deaths were higher during the cold months (+45,000, SD = 4,700, S = 21). The scenario worsened during COVID-19. Mortality was higher during minimum temperature periods, although the curve moderately rose in the warmest months (r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths showed a decreasing seasonality. Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were high (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], S = 28) with a doubt of seasonality. COVID-19 mortality was correlated with regional latitude (r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths were found. The exposed population was subject to aging; (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological risk in Italy is seasonal and geographically dependent. Low and very high temperatures can lead to mortality peaks. Therefore, COVID-19 and any other epidemiological risk must be evaluated in light of this evidence. Health systems need to be strengthened during cold and extremely hot periods. Future research should investigate these phenomena at the causal level.
Keywords
COVID-19; epidemiology; Italy; mortality; public health; risk factors; seasonality; temperature
Subject
MEDICINE & PHARMACOLOGY, Other
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
