Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health

Version 1 : Received: 13 March 2023 / Approved: 15 March 2023 / Online: 15 March 2023 (01:55:15 CET)

How to cite: Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints 2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1 Rovetta, A. COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health. Preprints 2023, 2023030265. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1

Abstract

(1) Background: This paper investigates the epidemiological risk related to temperature before and during COVID-19 in Italy; (2) Methods: Deaths in 2015-2019 and temperatures were correlated. Excess and COVID-19 deaths were examined to estimate the relationships with temperatures; (3) Results: Annual deaths were higher during the cold months (+45,000, SD = 4,700, S = 21). The scenario worsened during COVID-19. Mortality was higher during minimum temperature periods, although the curve moderately rose in the warmest months (r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths showed a decreasing seasonality. Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were high (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], S = 28) with a doubt of seasonality. COVID-19 mortality was correlated with regional latitude (r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths were found. The exposed population was subject to aging; (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological risk in Italy is seasonal and geographically dependent. Low and very high temperatures can lead to mortality peaks. Therefore, COVID-19 and any other epidemiological risk must be evaluated in light of this evidence. Health systems need to be strengthened during cold and extremely hot periods. Future research should investigate these phenomena at the causal level.

Keywords

COVID-19; epidemiology; Italy; mortality; public health; risk factors; seasonality; temperature

Subject

Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.