Preprint Article Version 4 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories

Version 1 : Received: 7 July 2021 / Approved: 8 July 2021 / Online: 8 July 2021 (10:00:51 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 7 January 2022 / Approved: 10 January 2022 / Online: 10 January 2022 (20:59:56 CET)
Version 3 : Received: 14 January 2022 / Approved: 19 January 2022 / Online: 19 January 2022 (16:01:37 CET)
Version 4 : Received: 20 January 2022 / Approved: 25 January 2022 / Online: 25 January 2022 (10:03:09 CET)

How to cite: Teppone, M. COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Preprints 2021, 2021070185 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202107.0185.v4). Teppone, M. COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Preprints 2021, 2021070185 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202107.0185.v4).

Abstract

Background: Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. Objective: To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. Results: The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the second phase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. Conclusions: Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.

Supplementary and Associated Material

Keywords

COVID-19; Phases of the pandemic; Mortality rate; Case fatality ratio; Infection fatality ratio

Subject

MEDICINE & PHARMACOLOGY, General Medical Research

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 25 January 2022
Commenter: Mikhail Teppone
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study.
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