Version 1
: Received: 7 July 2021 / Approved: 8 July 2021 / Online: 8 July 2021 (10:00:51 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 7 January 2022 / Approved: 10 January 2022 / Online: 10 January 2022 (20:59:56 CET)
Version 3
: Received: 14 January 2022 / Approved: 19 January 2022 / Online: 19 January 2022 (16:01:37 CET)
Version 4
: Received: 20 January 2022 / Approved: 25 January 2022 / Online: 25 January 2022 (10:03:09 CET)
Teppone, M. The Phase Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Problems of Social Hygiene Public Health and History of Medicine 2022, 30, doi:10.32687/0869-866x-2022-30-3-347-355.
Teppone, M. The Phase Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Problems of Social Hygiene Public Health and History of Medicine 2022, 30, doi:10.32687/0869-866x-2022-30-3-347-355.
Teppone, M. The Phase Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Problems of Social Hygiene Public Health and History of Medicine 2022, 30, doi:10.32687/0869-866x-2022-30-3-347-355.
Teppone, M. The Phase Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories. Problems of Social Hygiene Public Health and History of Medicine 2022, 30, doi:10.32687/0869-866x-2022-30-3-347-355.
Abstract
Background. January 2021 marked one year since the start of COVID-19 pandemic: it is the time of intermediate conclusions. Objective. To evaluate CFR and IFR due to COVID-19 in various countries and territories, and to study if parameters of a population age affect CFR and IFR. Material and Methods. The databases of 219 countries were collected on the Worldometers, Index Mundi, Country Meters and World Bank websites. The processing of data was divided into two parts: the first part dealt with the calculation and analysis of CFR while the second, the calculation and analysis of IFR.Results.The calculations revealed that in 74 out of 219 countries, CFR was less than 1.00 %, in 69 countries it varied between 1.00 % and 2.00 %, and in 76 countries it was more than 2.00 %. The calculation of IFR revealed that in 183 countries, IFR was less than 1.00 %, in 22 countries IFR was between 1.00 % and 2.00 %, and only in 14 out of 219 countries IFR was more than 2.00 %. A correlation between IFR and parameters of a population age was found: the less median age and the percentage of 'aged' people – the less value of IFR, although, there was no correlation between parameters of a population age and CFR. Conclusion. The global health care system has gone through a year of serious trial caused by COVID-19 and appeared to have emerged victorious. In the majority of countries analyzed, the parameters of mortality due to COVID-19 were at a low level. So, there seems to be an objective basis for optimism and hope for an early end to the pandemic.
COVID-19; Mortality rate; CFR; IFR; Case fatality ratio; Infection fatality ratio
Subject
Medicine and Pharmacology, Immunology and Allergy
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received:
11 August 2021
Commenter:
Dr Ramesh Gulla
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment:
Inspite of availability of a huge data authors have failed to arrive at one CFR and one IFR in an acceptable logic. Such single number would have been of great help to compare and communicate such values in future as the pandemic changes with new variants, vaccines, treatments and natural immunity.
I feel fatality values of each country should have been individually fit to an imaginary projected bell shaped normal
distribution of world population to arrive at a meaningful number.
Commenter: Dr Ramesh Gulla
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
I feel fatality values of each country should have been individually fit to an imaginary projected bell shaped normal
distribution of world population to arrive at a meaningful number.