REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0338.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; weather; extreme
Online: 14 May 2021 (14:04:25 CEST)
The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0428.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: machine learning; weather forecast
Online: 30 June 2022 (11:30:04 CEST)
Weather forecast has a big impact on the global economy, accurate and timely weather forecast is required by all, it affects many aspects of human livelihood and lifestyle, it also plays a critical role in decision making for severe weather management and for primary and secondary sectors like agriculture, transportation, tourism, and industry as they rely on good weather conditions for production and operations. The erratic and uncertain complex nature of the weather makes traditional weather forecasting tedious and a challenging task, traditional weather forecast involves applying technology and scientific knowledge on numerical weather prediction (NWP), and weather radar to solve complex mathematical equations to obtain forecasts based on current weather conditions. These traditional processes utilize expensive, complex physical and computational power to produce forecasts, which can be inaccurate and have various catastrophic impacts on society. In this research, a machine learning-based weather forecasting model was proposed, the model was implemented using 4 classifier algorithms which include Random Forest classifier, Decision Tree Algorithm, Gaussian Naïve Bayes model, and Gradient Boosting Classifier, these algorithms were trained using a publicly available dataset from Kaggle for the city of Seattle for the period 2012 to 2015. The model’s performance was evaluated; the Gaussian Naive Bayes algorithm proved to be the best performing algorithm with a predictive accuracy of 84.153 %.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0136.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: influenza, epidemics, weather, temperature, UV
Online: 18 January 2019 (12:42:19 CET)
With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010-2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and low UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in the Northern European countries. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in Northern Europe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0075.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Astronomy And Astrophysics Keywords: extreme weather events; heat waves; sun-earth relationships; sun and weather; space weather and extreme atmospheric events; global atmospheric anomalies; SEP events and weather; SEP and NAO; gulf stream and heat waves
Online: 6 March 2019 (11:01:50 CET)
In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar ﬂares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures TM in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase. ΔTM and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔTM (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of TM to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0499.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: thermal; object detection; conditioning; weather-aware
Online: 7 September 2023 (09:29:00 CEST)
Deployments of real-world object-detection systems often experience a degradation in performance over time due to concept drift. Systems that leverage thermal cameras are especially susceptible because the respective thermal signatures of objects and their surroundings are highly sensitive to environmental changes. In this study, a conditioning method is investigated. The method aims to guide the training loop of thermal object detection systems by leveraging an auxiliary branch to predict the weather, while directly or indirectly conditioning the baseline detection system. Leveraging such an approach to train detection networks does not necessarily improve the performance of native architectures, however, it can be observed that conditioned networks manage to extract a signal from thermal images that guides the network to detect objects that baseline models miss. As the extracted signal appears to be quite noisy and very challenging to regress accurately, further work is needed to identify an ideal optimization vector.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.2043.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: drone; weather; UAS; measurements; atmospheric techniques
Online: 31 July 2023 (10:37:47 CEST)
From December 2021 to May 2022, MeteoSwiss and Meteomatics conducted a proof of concept to demonstrate the capability of Meteodrones to provide data of sufficient quality and reliability on a routine operational basis. Over 6 months, Meteodrones MM-670 were operated automati-cally 8 times per night at Payerne, Switzerland. 864 meteorological profiles were measured and compared to co-located standard measurements including radiosoundings and remote-sensing instruments. To our knowledge, it is the first time that Meteodrone’s atmospheric profiles are evaluated in such an extensive campaign. The paper highlights two case studies that showcase the performance and challenges of measur-ing temperature, humidity, and wind with a Meteodrone. It also focuses on the overall quality of the drone measurements. Throughout the campaign, the availability of Meteodrone measure-ments was 75.7%, with 82.2% of the flights reaching the nominal altitude of 2000m above sea level. To assess the quality of the Meteodrone measurements, the radiosondes were used as a refer-ence, comparing them to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) requirements . The temperature measurements by the Meteodrone met the "breakthrough" target, while the humid-ity and wind profiles met the "threshold" target for high-resolution numerical weather predic-tion. The temperature measurement quality was comparable to that of a microwave radiometer, and the humidity quality was similar to that obtained from a Raman Lidar. However, the wind measurements by a Doppler Lidar were more accurate than the estimation provided by the Me-teodrone. During this campaign, the data quality could be improved and at the end of the campaign, Me-teodrone quality reached the “goal” target for temperature and the “breakthrough” target for humidity. This campaign marks a significant step towards the operational use of automatic drones for me-teorological applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0487.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Pathosystem; Viral diseases; Weather; Predictive model
Online: 26 December 2022 (11:05:27 CET)
Over the last 20 years, begomoviruses have emerged as devastating pathogens, limiting the production of different crops worldwide. Weather conditions increase vector populations, with negative effects on crop production. In this work we evaluated the relationship between the in-cidence of begomovirus and climatic conditions before and during the crop cycle. Soybean and bean fields from the northwest (NW) of Argentina were monitored for 14 years and classified as moderate (≤50%) and severe (> 50%) according to the relative incidence. Two hundred bio-meteorological variables were constructed, summarizing meteorological data in 10-day peri-ods from June to March of each crop year. The studied variables included temperature, precipi-tation, relative humidity, wind (speed and direction), pressure, cloudiness and visibility. For bean, high maximum winter temperatures, low spring humidity and precipitation 10 days before planting correlated with severe incidence. In soybeans, high late winter and pre-planting tem-peratures, and low spring precipitations were found to be good predictors of high incidence of begomovirus presence. The results suggest that temperature and pre-sowing precipitations can be used to predict incidence status [predictive accuracy: 82% (bean) and 75% (soybean)]. Thus, these variables can be incorporated in early warning systems for crop management deci-sion-making to reduce the virus impact on bean and soybean crops.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; Cold Climate; Weather; Finland
Online: 4 August 2020 (15:59:18 CEST)
Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate. There is some previous evidence that weather may influence the incidence of COVID-19 infection. We assessed the role of meteorological factors including temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) considering the concentrations of two air pollutants, inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the incidence of COVID-19 infections in Finland, located in arctic-subarctic climatic zone. Methods: We retrieved daily counts of COVID-19 in Finland from Jan 1 to May 31, 2020, nationwide and separately for all 21 hospital districts across the country. The meteorological and air quality data were from the monitoring stations nearest to the central district hospital. A quasi-Poisson generalized additional model (GAM) was fitted to estimate the associations between district-specific meteorological factors and the daily counts of COVID-19 during the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. Results: The incidence rate of COVID-19 gradually increased until a peak around April 6 and then decreased. There were no associations between daily temperature and incidence rate of COVID-19. Daily average RH was negatively associated with daily incidence rate of COVID-19 in two hospital districts located inland. No such association was found nationwide. The sensitivity analyses indicate the results are robust. Conclusions: Weather conditions, such as air temperature and relative humidity, may not be important factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence in the arctic and subarctic winter and spring. More evidence is needed on the associations between weather and COVID-19 during different seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0209.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: space weather; global electric circuit; fair weather; electric field; current density; solar proton events; coronal mass ejection
Online: 4 October 2023 (05:20:52 CEST)
We report on ground-based measurements of the atmospheric electric field (Ez= -Potential Gradient (PG)) and current density (Jz) that were conducted at two locations in Israel. One is the Emilio Segre cosmic ray station located on Mt. Hermon (34.45 N, 2020 m AMSL) located in northern Israel near the Syrian-Lebanon border and at the other at the Wise astronomical observatory in the Negev desert highland plateau of southern Israel (31.18 N, 870 m AMSL). We searched for possible effects of strong, short-term solar events on the potential gradient and the vertical current density, as disruption to the Global Electric Circuit are often observed following strong solar events. The first case study (St. Patrick Day, 17 March 2015) was classified as the strongest event of 2015. The second case study (8 Sep 2017) was categorized as the strongest event of 2017 and one of the twenty strongest events on record to date. The results show that the electrical parameters measured at ground level at both stations were not affected during the two massive proton events and the ensuing geomagnetic storms. The magnetospheric shielding in lower latitudes is strong enough to shield against flux of energetic particles from solar events, obscuring any impact that may be noticeable above the local daily variations induced by local meteorological conditions (aerosol concentrations, clouds, high humidity, and wind speed) which were investigated as well.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1764.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Machine-learning; Weather prediction; Climate prediction; Survey; Meteorological Forecasting
Online: 30 October 2023 (17:09:12 CET)
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, machine learning is gradually becoming popular in predictions in all walks of life. In meteorology, It is gradually competing with traditional climate predictions dominated by physical models. This survey aims to consolidate the current understanding of Machine Learning (ML) applications in weather and climate prediction—a field of growing importance across multiple sectors including agriculture and disaster management. Building upon an exhaustive review of more than 20 methods highlighted in existing literature, this survey pinpointed eight techniques that show particular promise for improving the accuracy of both short-term weather and medium-to-long-term climate forecasts. According to the survey, while ML demonstrates significant capabilities in short-term weather prediction, its application in medium-to-long-term climate forecasting remains limited, constrained by factors such as intricate climate variables and data limitations. Current literature tends to focus narrowly on either short-term weather or medium-to-long-term climate forecasting, often neglecting the relationship between the two, as well as general neglect of modelling structure and recent advances. By providing an integrated analysis of models spanning different time scales, this survey aims to bridge these gaps, thereby serving as a meaningful guide for future interdisciplinary research in this rapidly evolving field.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0713.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Web application; climate data; weather station; ClimInonda
Online: 9 June 2023 (11:51:39 CEST)
Climate data are important in building a hydrological risk assessment model. The ClimInonda web application enables interactive and dynamic visualizations of different data collected from different weather stations in the study area on a single platform, allowing users to explore and analyze data in an easy way. This can assist decision-makers and stakeholders in understanding the current state of the environment and in identifying areas of flooding risk. Visualizations can include different types of data, such as satellite imagery, weather data, and terrain data, and can be displayed using various techniques, such as heat maps, contour maps, and 3D models by providing easy-to-understand visualizations. The different stations of the Gafsa and Kasserine governorates in the study area are included and other stations of the Algerian territory (Tebessa governorate) are incorporated. This web application also provides the capability to include each user's stations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0065.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Indigenous; Knowledge Systems; Modern Weather Instruments; Uganda
Online: 5 April 2023 (15:20:59 CEST)
Location-specific weather and climate information together with related advisory services are one of the crucial drivers of development in the 21st century particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there still exist significant gaps in provision of weather and climate information at scales that effectively address the needs of local people for instance; local farmers and pastoralists. This therefore force local people to rely on indigenous knowledge (IK), to observe and forecast weather conditions. This situation does not exclude Uganda, and thus the current study assessed the efficacy of integrating indigenous knowledge systems into modern weather observational instruments in order to boost and act as a backup mechanism for modern weather observational instruments to increase accuracy and wide coverage of weather observations within Uganda. Results indicated that, respondents across the two pilot sites use a combination of plants, animals, insects, and human behaviours, meteorological and astrological indicators to observe and predict local prevailing weather conditions. Majority of the respondents particularly in Masaka district, believed that the use of indigenous knowledge to observe weather and climatic events is very reliable compared to their counterparts in Entebbe Municipality. Therefore, the integration of indigenous knowledge system in scientific weather observations is very vital.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0388.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: weather variables; stock market returns; significant; Ghana
Online: 17 September 2020 (08:24:46 CEST)
In every economy, Stock markets are part of the key elements the build it up. A few decades ago, there has been a significant change in Ghana stock market returns (GSE). Our study examines the statistical and economic significance of investor sentiment, based on weather conditions/changes, on stock market returns. OLS models, assisted by unit root tests were employed in analyzing the data obtained from the Ghana stock exchange platform from 2000 to 2017. From our literature review, we discovered that investors’ perceptions play a central role in finalizing the direction of stock market returns. Regarding our empirical results, we tested whether weather variations influence the investment decisions of investors; we discovered that temperature and cloud cover significantly influences stock market returns. This is because of mood changes is associated with weather conditions variations. However, sunshine per our regression coefficient shows a statistically insignificant impact on investors’ investment choices. Precipitation to a large extend influence stock market activities further affecting its results negatively as our regression results depicted. We concluded stock brokerage firms, companies, and investors (foreign/local) must incorporate weather changes/effects when strategizing about their investment outcomes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1987.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Giant hail; Field work; hailstorm; damages; Weather Radar
Online: 29 May 2023 (07:04:30 CEST)
Three facts characterize the hailstorm of 30 August 2022 in the Catalan village of La Bisbal d'Empordà and its surroundings: first, the most dramatic, the death of a child hit by a hailstone. Second, the damage to most of the roofs and cars in the town. Finally, because of the record of hail size (more than 10 cm) in Catalonia in at least the last 30 years. This research focuses on the radar field comparison and the observations provided by an electronic survey of the study area. The results reveal that weather radar sub-estimated the hail size because of different factors. On the opposite, some reporters provided an inaccurate hour. The difference of three months between the hail event and the electronic survey is the probable cause of this mistake in the time estimation. However, the survey delay helped to avoid answers with larger hail sizes than those provided by the official spotters.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0337.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Meteorological data; forcing fingerprints; weather forcasting; orbital forcing
Online: 21 October 2022 (11:44:41 CEST)
We identified six natural "control knobs" for global weather and climate, which clearly regulate, increase and decrease global temperatures, thus performing a true temperature "control" on Earth. Identified control knobs act as Earth's orbital forcing. We present a detailed Earth orbital model, from where the analysis proceeds. Based on our orbital model, we compare meteorological data from all over the globe, in order to detect orbital forcing fingerprints. Ninety temperature graphs and bar charts demonstrate the results. Empirical meteorological data covers the Pacific ocean, the Atlantic ocean, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, and presents land based meteorological measurements from all continents for the year 2020, as well as multi-decadal data from global daily temperature datasets. A supplementary file provides another 100 additional graphs of weather data and temperature charts. The global orbital "temperature control" is clearly observable in all graphs and charts. Until today, orbital forcing has not been integrated in weather models and CMIP6 climate models.It is concluded that the proposed new orbital forcing should be part of weather and climate forecasting models.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0152.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: SAR; Sentinel-1; Amplitude; Beach environment; Weather conditions
Online: 8 September 2021 (13:11:46 CEST)
Environmental effects and climate change are lately representing an increasing strain of the coastal areas which topography strongly depends on these conditions. However, the processes by which weather and environmental phenomena influence the highly variable beach morphology are still unknown. A continuous monitoring of the beach environment is necessary to implement protection strategies. This paper presents the results of an innovative study performed on a coastal area using satellite remote sensing data with the aim of understanding how environmental phenomena affect beaches. Two-years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images are used over a test area in Noordwijk, the Netherlands. At the same time as the SAR acquisitions, information on tidal and weather conditions are collected and integrated from nearby meteorological stations. Dedicated codes are implemented in order to understand the relationship between the SAR amplitude and the considered phenomena: wind, precipitation, tidal conditions. Surface roughness is taken into account. The results indicate a strong correlation between the amplitude and the wind. No particular correlation or trend could be noticed in the relation with the precipitation. The analysis of the amplitude also shows a decreasing trend moving from the dry area of the beach towards the sea and the correlation coefficient between the amplitude and the tide level gets negative with the increase of the water content.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0149.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: car sharing; forecasting; machine learning; socio-demographic; weather
Online: 13 November 2019 (12:31:49 CET)
Free Floating Car Sharing (FFCS) services are a flexible alternative to car ownership. These transportation services show highly dynamic usage both over different hours of the day, and across different city areas. In this work, we study the problem of predicting FFCS demand patterns -- a problem of great importance to an adequate provisioning of the service. We tackle both the prediction of the demand i) over time and ii) over space. We rely on months of real FFCS rides in Vancouver, which constitute our ground truth. We enrich this data with detailed socio-demographic information obtained from large open-data repositories to predict usage patterns. Our aim is to offer a thorough comparison of several machine learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and easiness of training, and to assess the effectiveness of current state-of-art approaches to address the prediction problem. Our results show that it is possible to predict the future usage with relative errors down to 10%, and the spatial prediction can be estimated with relative errors of about 40%. Our study also uncovered the socio-demographic features that most strongly correlate with FFCS usage, providing interesting insights for providers opening service in new regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0150.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Philippines; rainfall; precipitation; Gamma distribution; probability; weather risk
Online: 21 December 2017 (04:43:17 CET)
Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1688.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: tropical cyclone; radar wind profiler; LIDAR; weather radar; microburst
Online: 26 September 2023 (05:21:59 CEST)
Super Typhoon Saola came very close to Hong Kong on 1 and 2 September 2023, necessitating the issuance of No. 10 hurricane signal, the highest tropical cyclone warning signal, in Hong Kong. While there were widespread damages in Hong Kong, no people were killed in the event with effective early warning. It is rare that a super typhoon came very close to Hong Kong and this paper is the first part in the series of the documentation of Saola to summarize the interesting observations of Saola near Hong Kong for future reference by weather forecasters, including sur-face observations, upper air observations, microburst alert from weather radars, and turbulence intensity based on spectral width measurement of radars.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1386.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Forest fire risk; weather index; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi
Online: 20 July 2023 (07:15:49 CEST)
In the overall context of national eco-conservation civilization development and considering the hills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, the local forest coverage rate is gradually on the rise, and so is the risk of forest fire. Every year, satellites can monitor and detect hundreds of fire spots on average. In recent years, serious fire took place for several times, leading to loss of life and personal injury. Then the fire-fighting work consumed huge amount of labor and material resources, exerting negative social impacts in many ways. Thus, the analysis of fire climate background in this region and the forecast based on fire weather indexes constitute an important part in the forest fire risk management. Located in the tropical monsoon climate zone, four provinces and municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanxi are similar in terms of climate characteristics. This study tries to analyze the characteristics about fire spots under satellite monitoring, fire climate and fire weather index. The probability distribution analysis of weather index about fire spots in history and key meteorological observation stations as well as the weather index analysis in the early stage of typical fire indicate that the Fine Fuel Moisture Content (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) in the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system is applicable to the fire risk analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, which can also effectively indicate the fuel moisture and spread conditions. As regards to the average level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi, when the FFMC is smaller than 93.5 and the ISI is also smaller than 5.0, there is a low risk of fire; when the FFMC is above 94 and the ISI is larger than 10.0, there is a high risk of fire; and the fire risk will be extremely high if the FFMC is over 96 and the ISI is above 13.0. In the practical fire-fighting management, the fire danger class can be released in reference to the ISI classes and threshold values of key meteorological observation stations under analysis provided by this study.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0524.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Camera; Radar; Lidar; Automotive Engineering; Adverse Weather; Sensor Perception
Online: 18 April 2023 (12:40:48 CEST)
Vehicle safety promises to be one of the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) biggest benefits. Higher levels of automation remove the human driver from the chain of events that can lead to a crash. Sensors play an influential role in vehicle driving as well as in ADAS by helping the driver to watch the vehicle’s surroundings for safe driving. Thus, the driving load is drastically reduced from steering as well as accelerating and braking for long-term driving. The baseline for the development of future intelligent vehicles relies even more on the fusion of data from surrounding sensors such as Camera, Lidar and Radar. These sensors not only need to perceive in clear weather but also need to detect accurately adverse weather and illumination conditions. Otherwise, a small error could have an incalculable impact on ADAS. As most of the current study is based on indoor or static testing. In order to solve this problem, this paper designs a series of dynamic test cases with the help of outdoor rain and intelligent lightning simulation facilities to make the sensor application scenarios more realistic. As a result, the effect of rainfall and illumination on sensor perception performance is investigated. As speculated, the performance of all automotive sensors is degraded by adverse environmental factors, but their behaviour is not identical. Future work on sensor model development and sensor information fusion should therefore take this into account.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0584.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: CMIP6; ScenarioMIP; Lake Victoria; climate change; SSP585; extreme weather
Online: 6 March 2023 (15:46:05 CET)
This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040-2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070-2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985-2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events, represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p) show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region - which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0262.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Stereo winds; midwave infrared; weather satellite; atmospheric motion vectors
Online: 18 January 2022 (15:15:47 CET)
The Compact Midwave Imaging System (CMIS) is a wide field of view, multi-angle, multi-spectral pushframe imager that relies on the forward motion of the satellite to create a two-dimensional (2D) image swath. An airborne demonstration of CMIS was successfully completed in January-February 2021 on the NASA Langley Research Center Gulfstream III. The primary objective of the four-flight campaign was to demonstrate the capability of this unique instrument to perform stereo observations of clouds and other particulates (e.g. smoke) in the atmosphere. It is shown that the midwave infrared (MWIR) spectral bands of CMIS provide a unique 24/7 capability with high resolution for accurate stereo sensing. The instrument relies on new focal plane array (FPA) technology, which provides excellent sensitivity at much warmer detector temperatures than traditional technologies. This capability enabled a compact, low-cost design that can provide atmospheric motion vectors and cloud heights to support requirements for atmospheric winds in the 2017-2027 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Applications include day/night observations of the planetary boundary layer, severe weather, and wildfires. A comparison with current space-based earth science instruments demonstrates that the SWIR/MWIR multi-spectral capability of CMIS is competitive with larger, more expensive instrumentation. Imagery obtained over a controlled burn and operating nuclear power plant demonstrated the sensitivity of the instrument to temperature variations. The system relies on a mature stereoscopic imaging technique applied to the same scene from two independent platforms to unambiguously retrieve atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) with accurate height assignment. This capability has been successfully applied to geostationary and low-earth orbit satellites to achieve excellent accuracy. When applied to a ground-point validation case, the accuracy for the CMIS aircraft observations was 20 m and 0.3 m/s for cloud heights and motion vectors, respectively. This result was confirmed by a detailed error analysis with analytical and covariance models. The results for CMIS cases with underflights of Aeolus, CALIPSO and Aqua provided a good validation of expected accuracies. The paper also showed the feasibility of accommodating CMIS on CubeSats to enable multiple instruments to be flown in a leader-follower mode.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0005.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: weather radar; polarimetry; smoke plumes; wild fires; polarimetric characteristics
Online: 2 January 2020 (03:35:31 CET)
Weather surveillance radars routinely detect smoke of various origin. Of particular significance to the meteorological community are wildfires in forests and/or prairies. For example, one responsibility of the National Weather Service in the USA is to forecast fire outlooks as well as to monitor wild fire evolution. Polarimetric variables have enabled relatively easy recognitions of smoke plumes in data fields of weather radars. Presented here are the fields of these variables from smoke plumes caused by grass fire, brush fire, and forest fire. Histograms of polarimetric data from plumes contrast these three cases. Most of the data are from the polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D aka Nexrad, 10 cm wavelength) hence the wavelength does not influence these comparisons. Nevertheless, in one case simultaneous observations of a plume by the operational Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR, 5 cm wavelength) and a WSR-88D is used to infer backscattering characteristic and hence sizes of dominant contributors to the returns. In addition, comparisons with observations by other investigators of plumes from urban area but at a 5 cm wavelength are made. To interpret some measurements Computational Electromagnetics (CEM) tools are applied.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0026.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: weather radar; quantitative precipitation estimation; remote sensing; hydrological applications
Online: 4 June 2019 (07:41:17 CEST)
Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0550.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: social vulnerability; natural hazards; spatial analysis; risk; severe weather; Mexico
Online: 10 October 2023 (05:44:43 CEST)
The spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards in Mexico are analyzed. To this end, using census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 and a statistical method, different indices were computed, and with a GIS-based approach, patterns of social vulnerability are examined. In addition, a risk assessment test for severe weather (thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes) is made out. The results show different common social vulnerability driving factors in the three analyzed years, with root causes that have not been addressed since the beginning of the century. Likewise, a wider gap between Mexico's most and least vulnerable populations is identified. The changes in spatial patterns respond to different historical situations, such as migration, urbanization, and increased population. Also, poverty, ethnicity, and marginalization factors located in very particular regions in Mexico have remained relatively the same in the last few years. These situations have strongly influenced the spatial-temporal distribution of vulnerability in the country. The role of social vulnerability in the disaster risk to extreme events such as thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes in Mexico is fundamental to understanding changes in disaster distribution at the national level, and it is the first step to generating improvements in integrated risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0486.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Astronomy And Astrophysics Keywords: solar magnetograph; space weather; space sciences; solar instrumentation; miniaturised optics
Online: 9 October 2023 (11:10:47 CEST)
Measuring the Sun’s magnetic field is a key component of monitoring solar activity and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the possibility of reducing the dimensions and weight of a solar magnetograph while preserving its optical quality. This article presents a range of different designs, along with their advantages and disadvantages, and an analysis of the optical performance of each. All proposed designs are based on the Magneto Optical Filter (MOF) technique. As a result of the design study, a miniaturised solar magnetograph is proposed with an ultra-compact layout. The dimensions are 345mm × 54mm × 54mm and the optical quality is almost at the diffraction limit. The design has an entrance focal-ratio of F/17.65, with a plate scale of 83.58 arcsec/mm at the telescope image focal plane and produces a magnification of 0.79. The field of view is 1920 arcsec diameter, equivalent to ±0.27degrees, sufficient to cover the entire solar disk.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1823.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: nitrous oxide; rice paddy; nitrogen fertilization; soil moisture; weather condition
Online: 27 September 2023 (10:44:40 CEST)
Rice cultivation serves as a significant anthropogenic source of methane (CH4), a primary greenhouse gas, and nitrous oxide (N2O), a secondary greenhouse gas. Although N2O emissions remain relatively small compared to CH4 emissions, they are remarkably affected by nitrogen-fertilized soil conditions during rice cultivation. To date, investigations are very limited concerning N2O emissions from rice cultivation in relation to environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and soil properties. In this case study, we investigated the characteristics of N2O emissions in the central region of South Korea, where a single rice cropping cycle occurs annually over a span of three years, from May 2020 to May 2023. We investigated the impact of variations in temperature and soil moisture on N2O emissions during rice cultivation. In this context, we attempted to discover the complex dynamics of N2O emissions by comparing longer fallow periods with the rice cultivation periods and extended non-dry periods with irrigated periods. We observed that extremely high N₂O flux events encountered during the fallow period appeared to have a substantial impact on the yearly cumulative N₂O emissions, surpassing the impact of cumulative N₂O emissions during the rice cultivation period. We found that high N₂O flux events arose not only from artificial nitrogen inputs but also due to temperature and soil moisture variations influenced by weather conditions. We concluded that assessing N₂O emissions solely based on the rice cultivation period would underestimate annual emissions. To prevent underestimation of N₂O emissions, continual gas collection throughout a year covering both rice cultivation and fallow phases is required in align with monitoring of varying temperature and soil moisture conditions. Based on our findings, we recommend that at least a three whole year evaluation period is needed to ensure estimation accuracy of N₂O emissions under varying nitrogen fertilization rates. Also, the findings from this study would help prepare a further revision or refinement of N2O emission factor from rice cultivation in the national greenhouse gas inventories defined by the inter-governmental panel on climate change (IPCC).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0859.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Autonomous vehicles; weather; automotive; modelling; precipitation; rain; snow; dimensional analysis
Online: 13 July 2023 (12:25:45 CEST)
With advances in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs), more attention has been paid to the effects caused by adverse weather conditions on them. It is well known that the performance of self-driving vehicles is reduced when they are exposed to stressors that impair visibility or generate water or snow accumulation on sensor surfaces. This paper proposes a model to quantify weather precipitation, such as rain and snow, perceived by moving vehicles based on outdoor data. The modelling covers a wide range of parameters, such as varying wind direction and realistic particle size distributions. The model allows the calculation of precipitation intensity on inclined surfaces of different orientations and on a circular driving path. The modelling results were partially validated against direct measurements carried out by a test vehicle. The model outputs showed strong correlation with the experimental data for both rain and snow. Mitigation strategies for heavy precipitation on vehicles can be developed and correlations between precipitation rate and accumulation level can be traced using the presented analytical model. Dimensional Analysis of the problem has highlighted the critical parameters that can help the design of future experiments. The obtained results highlight the importance of the angle of the sensing surface on the perceived precipitation level. The proposed model is used to analyze optimal orientations for minimization of the precipitation flux, which can help to determine the positioning of sensors on the surface of autonomous vehicles.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0729.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: foggy weather scenarios; deep learning; SwinFoucs; decoupled head; Soft-NMS
Online: 10 May 2023 (10:05:03 CEST)
In foggy weather scenarios, the scattering and absorption of light by water droplets and particulate matter cause object features in images to become blurred or lost, presenting a significant challenge for target detection in autonomous driving vehicles. To tackle this problem, this study proposes a foggy weather detection method, YOLOv5s-Fog, based on the YOLOv5s framework. The model enhances the feature extraction and expression capabilities of YOLOv5s by introducing a novel target detection layer, SwinFocus. Additionally, this research incorporates decoupled head into the model and replaces the conventional non-maximum suppression method with Soft-NMS. Experimental results demonstrate that these improvements effectively enhance the detection performance for blurry objects and small targets in foggy weather conditions. Compared to the baseline model YOLOv5s, YOLOv5s-Fog achieves a 5.4% increase in mAP on the RTTS dataset, reaching 73.4%. This method provides technical support for rapid and accurate target detection in adverse weather conditions, such as foggy weather, for autonomous driving vehicles.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0434.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Terrestrial Laser Scanner; SAR; coastal environment; weather effect; surface roughness.
Online: 28 January 2022 (11:18:54 CET)
In the past years, our knowledge of coastal environments has been enriched by remotely sensed data. However, to successfully extract information from a combination of different sensors systems, it should be understood how these interact with the common coastal environment. In this research we co-analyze two sensor systems: Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and satellite based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). TLS shows large potential for examining coastal processes thanks to the possibility to retrieve repeated, accurate and dense topographic information in a rapid and non-invasive manner. However, TLS presents some limits due to its high economic costs and limited field of view. SAR systems are among the most used active remote sensor system for Earth Observation. Despite their relatively low resolution, SAR systems provide the ability to monitor and map coastal areas with complete, repeated and frequent coverage, penetrating through clouds and providing all weather monitoring. Moreover, Sentinel-1 SAR images are freely available. The availability of a permanently installed TLS system (PLS, Permanent Laser Scanner) allows us, to extensively compare Sentinel-1 SAR data and topographic laser scans during different conditions on a sandy beach. PLS data are compared with simultaneous Sentinel-1 SAR images in order to investigate the combined use of PLS and SAR in coastal environments. The purpose of this comparison is the investigation of a possible relation between PLS and SAR data: knowing their relation, SAR dataset could be correlated to beaches characteristics. Meteorological and surface roughness have also been taken into consideration in the evaluation of the correlation between PLS and SAR data. The permanently installed laser scanner for the present study is located in Noordwijk (the Netherlands). A generally positive but low correlation exists between the two variables. When considering weather phenomena, their correlation increases and shows a dependence on wind directions and speed. The correlation with the surface roughness, evaluated in terms of root-mean squared height, also depends on specific wind speed and directions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0070.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: participatory methodologies; policy, advocacy; agronomy; information/ variability; agro-weather advisories.
Online: 1 February 2021 (18:45:15 CET)
There is consensus that climate variability and change is impacting food security in Eastern Africa, and that conventional extension approaches, based on top-down model of information dissemination and technology transfer, are too inadequate to help smallholder farmers tackle increasingly complex agro-climatic adversities. Innovative service delivery options exist but are mostly operated in silos with little effort to explore and blend them. There are efforts to develop a blended Climate-Resilient Farmers Field School methodology to address the gaps, with objective to improve participants’ knowledge, skills and attitude to apply the blended approach and to sensitize actors on what needs to be advocated at the policy level. Some 661 local trainers/facilitators (ToT/ToFs), 32% of them women and 54% youth, were trained across Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, with additional 76 Master Trainers (MToTs) trained to backstop the ToT/ToFs. Through the implementation, the process reached 36 agribusinesses covering some 237,250 smallholder farmers trained across Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda on CSA technologies, practices, and innovations by the end of 2020. The blended approach offers lessons to transform extension to help farmers improve food security and resilience. Preliminary findings indicate that the process is rapidly shaping individual adaptive behavior and group adaptive thinking. Lessons also show a strong need for agronomists to work more closely with agro-meteorologists to ensure that farmers are properly guided to participate appropriately in the co-generation and application of climate information and agro-weather advisories, which they can interpret easily and utilize for their agricultural production purposes. Experience from this initiative can be leveraged to develop scalable participatory extension and training models
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0811.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Biomaterials Keywords: magnetorheological; elastomer; magnetorheological elastomer; MRE; weather; accelerated; rubber; composite; rheological
Online: 31 December 2020 (13:28:19 CET)
Silicone RTV-based engineering rubber composite products have been widely used for several applications in various fields as a major component such as structure, automotive, and medical. In its application, the rubber composite product is placed in an open area that is directly exposed to sunlight and rain. It has a significant negative impact on changes in chemical and rheological properties, making the product life of rubber composite products shorter. Therefore, in this study, changes in the chemical and rheological properties of both isotropic and anisotropic magnetorheological elastomer (MRE) treated with accelerated weathering were studied compared to untreated specimens with specimens that had been treated. MRE specimens with 40% by weight CIP were prepared with no current excitation and another sample were made under 1.5 T of magnetic flux density. Each specimen was treated in an accelerated weathering machine Q-Sun Xe-1 Xenon Test Chamber with a UV light exposure cycle for 102 minutes and 18 minutes of UV light combined with water spray for 24 hours followed by a condensation cycle of 4 hours in a dark period. Material characterization was carried out using FTIR and Rheometer to determine the changes in chemical and rheological properties. The morphological analysis results showed that the surface was rough and more cavities occurred after being given weather treatment. Rheometer test results showed a decrease in storage modulus in each MRE specimen that had been treated compared to untreated MRE specimens. Meanwhile, FTIR testing showed a change in wave peak between untreated and treated MRE specimens.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0238.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: land surface temperature; all-weather; infrared; microwave; surface energy balance
Online: 20 November 2019 (11:12:02 CET)
An all-weather land surface temperature (LST) product derived at the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) is presented. The product is based on clear-sky LST retrieved from MSG/SEVIRI infrared (IR) measurements, complemented by LST estimated with a land surface energy balance (EB) model to fill gaps caused by clouds. The EB model solves the surface energy balance mostly using products derived at LSA-SAF. The new product is compared with in situ observations made at 3 dedicated validation stations, and with a Microwave (MW) based LST product derived from AMSR-E measurements. The validation against in-situ LST indicates an accuracy of the new product between -0.8 K and 1.1 K and a precision between 1.0 K and 1.4 K, generally showing a better performance than the MW product. The EB model shows some limitations concerning the representation of the LST diurnal cycle. Comparisons with MW LST generally show higher LST of the new product over desert areas, and lower LST over tropical regions. Several other imagers provide suitable measurements for implementing the proposed methodology, which offers the potential to obtain a global, nearly gap-free LST product.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0125.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: tropical cyclone; Weather Research and Forecast model; zonal Ekman transport
Online: 12 November 2019 (09:32:21 CET)
We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0312.v1
Subject: Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality Keywords: natural hazards; weather disasters; hydrometeorological fatalities; flooding; tornadoes; extreme temperatures
Online: 24 April 2018 (08:51:45 CEST)
Texas ranks first in number of natural hazard fatalities in the United States (U.S.). Based on data culled from the National Climatic Data Center databases from 1959 to 2016, the number of hydrometeorological fatalities in Texas have increased over the 58-year study period, but the per capita fatalities have significantly decreased. Spatial review found that flooding is the predominant hydrometeorological disaster in a majority of the Texas counties located in “Flash Flood Alley” and accounts for 43% of all hydrometeorological fatalities in the state. Flooding fatalities are highest on “Transportation Routes” followed by heat fatalities in “Permanent Residences”. Seasonal and monthly stratification identifies Spring and Summer as the deadliest seasons, with the month of May registering the highest number of total fatalities dominated by flooding and tornado fatalities. Demographic trends of hydrometeorological disaster fatalities indicated that approximately twice as many male fatalities occurred during the study period than female fatalities, but with decreasing gender disparity over time. Adults are the highest fatality risk group overall, children most at risk to die in flooding, and the elderly at greatest risk of heat-related death.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0014.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: rainwater; weather; windbreaker; cup anemometer; dry and wet bulb thermometers
Online: 4 January 2017 (07:27:41 CET)
Agro-meteorology is the relationship between agriculture and weather. All farm activities are affected by weather. Therefore it is always necessary to monitor the weather as a forecast. The aim of the research was to monitor the weather and rainwater samples obtained at Federal College of Agriculture, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria. For the eight months periods, results were obtained. The mean results for the physicochemical parameters were: TDS (12.25 mg/L), temp (28.13 oC), pH (6.63), EC (24.25µS/cm), Free CO2 (24.38mg/L), nitrate (0.16mg/L), phosphate (0.17mg/L), sulphate (0.18mg/L). The rainwater was colorless and had no odor. The mean meteorological data: The prevailing wind directions were from SE, mostly in May, June, July and November and NE. The dry and wet temperatures were 22-29 oC and 20-26 oC respectively. The maximum value was observed in the month of July. The correlation matrix showed that there were many strong correlations in the physicochemical properties. The months of May, June and July had the highest wind speed. In these months there would be a need to use a windbreaker around the crops planted to avoid soil erosion and damaging of plants.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0790.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: grassland fire; dust weather; spatiotemporal variation; Pearson correlation analysis; Dornod aimag
Online: 12 October 2023 (07:59:41 CEST)
As major natural disasters in grassland areas, fires and dust events seriously threaten human safety, property, and animal husbandry. Furthermore, these phenomena may be mutually reinforcing, which can lead to more severe cascading disasters. However, few studies have been on the mechanisms of grassland fire and dust events disaster chain. Therefore, we selected Dornod aimag (province), a typical temperate grassland, as the study area and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation patterns of grassland fires and dust weather, as well as the effect of grassland fires on dust weather based on MCD64A1 Burnt Area data and SYNOP dust data. The mechanism of grassland fires on dust weather was further investigated using the MOD13A3 vegetation index product and ERA5 wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation data. The results revealed that grassland fires and dust weather varied spatially across the study area. Furthermore, grassland fires occurred mainly in spring (April to May), summer (June), and autumn (October), while dust weather mainly occurred in spring (March to May). Moreover, autumn, winter, and spring cumulative grassland fires (both days and area) substantially affected the spring total dust weather days and dust storm days, particularly the spring cumulative dust storm days. Additionally, higher precipitation in the summer of 2014 resulted in higher vegetation coverage and more fuel in the autumn and winter of 2014, and even in the spring of 2015. As a result, the cumulative grassland fire days was higher, and the area was larger from September 2014 to April 2015, leading to a considerable increase in the cumulative dust storm days in May 2015. This study has important implications for disaster prevention and mitigation, ecological and environmental protection, and sustainable development in grasslands.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0082.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Other Keywords: CO2; CH4; CO; Bivariate polar diagram; weather conditions; Lamto; Côte d’Ivoire
Online: 5 September 2023 (10:26:05 CEST)
CO2, CH4 and CO are the most critical atmospheric gases in terms of their impact on the radiative system, air quality and health. This work provides information on the direction of source areas and potential sources of emissions and shows many aspects of these gases by a statistical analysis using bivariate polar diagrams and local weather conditions (e.g., temperature, wind speed and wind direction) recorded at the Lamto station (LTO, 6°31N and 5°02W) in Côte d’Ivoire over the 2014-2018 period. The results show that the main regions contributing to the high concentrations of CH4 (> 1925 ppb) and CO2 (> 420 ppm) in the GSS, GSP, PSS and PSP seasons are the North and Northwest sectors of Lamto. In these directions, CH4 and CO2 concentrations are associated with wind speeds less than 6 m.s-1, due to the influences of local sources as emissions resulting from the degradation of organic matter submerged during the impoundment of the Taabo dam, and/nor human activities linked to the practice of intensive agriculture. In addition, the high concentrations of CO (> 350 ppb) are observed in GSS in the North, North-West, North-East and East sectors for wind speeds less than or equal to 9 m.s-1, due to the influences of both local and distant sources. The correlation coefficients between CH4 and CO, and between CH4 and CO2 are positive and significant in all sectors. However, those calculated between CO2 and CO have showed both low and high values in all seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1313.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Radio Occultation; COSMIC-2; water vapor profiles; climate; numerical weather prediction
Online: 18 August 2023 (09:25:44 CEST)
Recently, NOAA has included GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Radio Occultation (RO) data as one of the crucial long-term observables for weather and climate applications. To include more GNSS RO data in the numerical weather prediction system, the NOAA Commercial Weather Data Pilot program (CWDP) started to explore the commercial RO data available on the market. After two rounds of pilot studies, the CDWP decided to award the first Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to GeoOptics and Spire Incs. in 2020. This study examines the quality of Spire data products for weather and climate applications. Spire RO data are collected from commercial CubeSats through careful comparison with the data from Formosa Satellite Mission 7–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2), ERA-5, and high-quality radiosonde data. The results demonstrated that although with lower Signal-Noise-Ratio (SNR) in general, the pattern of the lowest penetration height for Spire is similar to those for COSMIC-2. The Spire and COSMIC-2 penetrate heights are between 0.6 and 0.8 km altitude at the tropical oceans. Although using different GNSS RO receivers, the precision of Spire STRASP receivers is of the same quality as those of COSMIC-2 Global Positioning System - GPS, GALILEO, and GLObal NAvigation Satellite System – GLONASS (TGRS) receivers. The retrieval accuracy from Spire is very compatible with those from COSMIC-2. We validated Spire temperature and water vapor profiles by comparing them with collocated radiosonde data. Generally, over the height region between 8 km and 16.5 km, the Spire temperature profiles match those from RS41 RAOB very well with temperature biases < 0.02 K. Over the height range from 17.8 to 26.4 km, the temperature differences are ~-0.034 K with RS41 RAOB being warmer. We also estimated the error covariance matrix for Spire, COSMIC-2, and KOMPSAT-5. Results showed that the COSMIC-2 estimated error covariance values are slightly more significant over the oceans at the mid-latitudes (45oN-30oN and 30oS-45oS), which may also be owing to COSMIC-2 SNR being lower at those latitudinal zones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0046.v2
Subject: Physical Sciences, Astronomy And Astrophysics Keywords: Space weather; Solar terrestrial connection; Climate change; Solar cycle; Environment; Epidemiology
Online: 12 January 2023 (02:36:30 CET)
This paper studies pandemic viruses that spread during the period (1759–2020) according to solar activity cycles. Our findings and results include the following: (1) The severity of a pandemic correlates negatively with the strength of solar activity; (2) Pandemic viruses are classified into three types based on their compatibility with solar activity associations. Most of them spread through the quiet Sun, where viruses survive better in cold and rainy weather, and in stable geomagnetic fields without strong disturbances; (3) The emergence of new strains of influenza viruses was manifested in two ways. First, the annual epidemics due to antigenic drift. Second, pandemics recur every 1–12 solar cycles (about 11–120 years) due to viral reassortment of new subtypes, which results in antigenic shifts; (4) Pandemic viruses have two groups according to their recurring period: first, recurring in nine solar cycles; second, recurring in twelve solar cycles. Furthermore, we reassort pandemic viruses from their previous spread in the same periodic classification. Moreover, we derive a periodicity formula for each subtype of the pandemic virus as a spread date.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0297.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: foehn wind; psychopathology; BSCL; mental health; weather; meteorological factors; climate change
Online: 17 August 2022 (04:04:41 CEST)
Psychiatric patients are particularly vulnerable to strong weather stimuli, such as foehn, a hot wind that occurs in the alps. However, there is a dearth of research regarding its impact on mental health. This study investigated the impact of foehn wind among patients of a psychiatric hospital located in a foehn area in the Swiss Alps. Analysis was based on anonymized datasets obtained from routine records on admission and discharge, including the Brief Symptom Checklist (BSCL) questionnaire, as well as sociodemographic parameters (age, sex, and diagnosis). Between 2013 and 2020 a total of 10,456 admission days and 10,575 discharge days were recorded. All meteorological data were extracted from the database of the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology of Switzerland. We estimated the effect of foehn on the BSCL items using a distributed lag model. Significant differences were found between foehn and non-foehn admissions in obsession-compulsion, Interpersonal Sensitivity, depression, Anxiety, Phobic Anxiety, Paranoid Ideation, and General Severity Index (GSI) (p <.05). Our findings suggest that foehn wind events may negatively affect specific mental health parameters in patients. More research is needed to fully understand the impact of foehn’s events on mental health.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0422.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: tephra; ground-based weather radar; Bayesian approach; nowcasting; ensemble prediction system
Online: 23 November 2021 (13:00:31 CET)
Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0335.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: air quality; extreme weather; MA-MSD method; investor sentiment; behavioral finance
Online: 14 December 2020 (13:13:36 CET)
We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the equity returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we use dummy variables created by employing a moving average and moving standard deviation. The important results are as follows. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative influence on the equity returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative impacts on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the weather effect of the abnormal temperature on the stock returns is greater in severe bearish market. Whereas the effect of the air pollution on the stock returns is greater in the bullish market. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analyzing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0171.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: Air quality; Extreme weather; MA-MSD method; Investor sentiment; Behavioural finance
Online: 7 August 2020 (04:08:44 CEST)
We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the stock market returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we apply dummy variables generated by applying a moving average and moving standard deviation. Our study provides several interesting results. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the more the Shenzhen stock returns drop, the greater the effect of the abnormal temperature is. Whereas, the more the Shenzhen stock returns increase, the greater the effect of the abnormal air quality is. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analysing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0069.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: building energy modeling; energy systems; energy demand; future climate; weather files
Online: 7 October 2019 (12:19:24 CEST)
The building sector accounts for nearly 40% of total primary energy consumption in the U.S. and E.U. and 20% of worldwide delivered energy consumption. Climate projections predict an increase of average annual temperatures between 1.1-5.4°C by 2100. As urbanization is expected to continue increasing at a rapid pace, the energy consumption of buildings is likely to play a pivotal role in the overall energy budget. In this study we used EnergyPlus building energy models to estimate the future energy demands of commercial buildings in Salt Lake County, Utah, USA, using locally-derived climate projections. We found significant variability in the energy demand profiles when simulating the study buildings under different climate scenarios, based on the energy standard the building was designed to meet, with reductions ranging from 10% to 60% in natural gas consumption for heating and increases ranging from 10% to 30% in electricity consumption for cooling. A case study, using projected 2040 building stock, showed a weighted average decrease in heating energy of 25% and an increase of 15% in cooling energy. We also found that building standards between ASHRAE 90.1-2004 and 90.1-2016 play a comparatively smaller role than variation in climate scenarios on the energy demand variability within building types. Our findings underscore the large range of potential future building energy consumption which depend on climatic conditions, as well as building types and standards.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0056.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Variable renewable energy, wind energy, weather years, optimization, power-to-hydrogen.
Online: 7 June 2019 (12:20:55 CEST)
Renewable energy sources (RES) will play a crucial role in future sustainable energy systems. In scenarios analyzing future energy system designs, a detailed spatial and temporal representation of renewable-based electricity generation is essential. For this, sufficiently representative weather data are required. Most analyses performed in this context use the historical data of either one specific reference year or an aggregation of multiple years. In contrast, this study analyzes the impact of different weather years based on historical weather data from 1980 through 2015 in accordance with the design of an exemplary future energy system. This exemplary energy system consists of on- and offshore wind energy for power-to-hydrogen via electrolysis, including hydrogen pipeline transport for most southwestern European countries. The assumed hydrogen demand for transportation needs represents a hypothetical future market penetration for fuel cell-electric vehicles of 75%. An optimization framework is used in order to evaluate the resulting system design with the objective function of minimizing the total annual cost (TAC) of the system. For each historical weather year, the applied optimization model determines the required capacities and operation of wind power plants, electrolyzers, storage technologies and hydrogen pipelines to meet the assumed future hydrogen demand in a highly spatially- and temporally-detailed manner, as well as the TAC of the system. Following that, the results of every individual year are compared in terms of installed capacities, overall electricity generation and connection to the transmission network, as well as the cost of these components within each region. The results reveal how sensitive the final design of the exemplary system is to the choice of the weather year. For example, the TAC of the system changes by up to 20% across two consecutive weather years. Furthermore, significant variation in the optimization results regarding installed capacities per region with respect to the choice of weather years can be observed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0216.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: soil moisture; L-band; passive radiometry; data assimilation; numerical weather prediction
Online: 19 April 2019 (11:14:00 CEST)
The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0079.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: accessibility; offshore; operation and maintenance; weather condition; Markov chain; data visualization
Online: 17 January 2017 (11:17:32 CET)
For offshore wind power generation, accessibility is one of the main factors that has great impact on operation and maintenance due to constraints on weather conditions for marine transportation. This paper presents a framework to explore the accessibility of an offshore site. At first, several maintenance types are defined and taken into account. Next, a data visualization procedure is introduced to provide an insight into the distribution of access periods over time. Then, a rigorous mathematical method based on finite state Markov chain is proposed to assess the accessibility of an offshore site from the maintenance perspective. A five-year weather data of a marine site is used to demonstrate the applicability and the outcomes of the proposed method. The main findings show that the proposed framework is effective in investigating the accessibility for different time scales and is able to catch the patterns of the distribution of the access periods. Moreover, based on the developed Markov chain, the average waiting time for a certain access period can be estimated. With more information on the maintenance of an offshore wind farm, the expected production loss due to time delay can be calculated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0050.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: Autonomous Driving; Harsh Weather; Object Detection; Data Merging; Deep Neural Networks; YOLOv8
Online: 1 September 2023 (09:57:21 CEST)
For autonomous driving, perception is a primary and essential element that fundamentally deals with the insight into the ego vehicle’s environment through sensors. Perception is a challenging task suffering from dynamic objects and continuous environmental changes. The issue gets worse due to interrupting the quality of perception by adverse weather like snow, rain, fog, night light, sand storm, strong daylight, etc. In this work, we have tried to improve camera-based perception accuracy, such as autonomous driving-related object detection in adverse weather. We proposed the improvement of YOLOv8-based object detection in adverse weather through transfer learning using merged data from various harsh weather datasets. Two prosperous open-source datasets (ACDC and DAWN) and their merged dataset were used to detect primary objects on the road in harsh weather. A set of training weights were collected from training on the individual datasets, their merged version, and several subsets of those datasets according to their characteristics. A comparison between the training weights also occurred by evaluating the detection performance on the above-mentioned datasets and their subsets. The evaluation revealed that using custom datasets for training significantly improves the detection performance compared to the YOLOv8 base weights. And using more images through the feature-related data merging technique steadily increases the object detection performance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1003.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: Offshore Renewable Energies; Operation and Maintenance; Accessibility; Visibility; Metocean conditions; Weather Window.
Online: 14 July 2023 (11:20:27 CEST)
Despite the important role of offshore renewable energies in the energy transition, the economical viability is still unclear. Therefore, an appropriate site selection is crucial. Besides the energy potential, the impact of operation and maintenance (O&M) aspects on the location can be critical. Traditional accessibility assessment metrics do not allow a comprehensive evaluation. Therefore, the present paper suggests a novel, technology-informed metric, incorporating the overall set of most critical aspects, i.e. metocean conditions, visibility due to sunlight and sea fog, system failures, and O&M logistics. Among the different aspects, limited visibility is shown to be highly relevant with a reduction of up to 60% in accessibility. The study assesses accessibility in 5 different locations across Europe. On the one hand, accessibility is shown to be less sensitive to long-term resource variations with a reduction of 5% in the last 6 decades. On the other hand, accessibility is shown to be inversely proportional to the energy potential overall, meaning that as energy potential increases, accessibility is reduced, increasing downtime, reducing final energy generation and increasing the final cost of energy. As a consequence, site selection should combine energy potential and accessibility assessments, which is enabled by the technology-informed metric presented here.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1828.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Firestorm project; fire-atmosphere interaction; surface weather stations; nighttime vertical varia-bility
Online: 26 May 2023 (03:38:30 CEST)
In the framework of the FireStorm project, four portable weather stations were installed in the Lousã/Estrela mountain range. Given that the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere’s sur-face network has two weather stations installed in this region, the new data allows an improved monitoring of the vertical variability of near-surface variables in this mountainous region. As most of the wildfires in mainland Portugal affect areas with complex terrain with elevations below 1200 m and major fires continue to burn overnight, it is also relevant to monitor the vertical changes of meteorological variables in the nighttime period, as these may exhibit large variability. This study provides the first assessment of the available data, with focus on the summer seasons of 2021 and 2022. The results highlight the large variability that was observed in the region and suggest that the risk of extreme fire behaviour in the nighttime period may be underestimated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0221.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Computer vision; Deep learning; Image classification; Loss functions; Vision Transformers; Weather detection
Online: 13 December 2022 (02:30:49 CET)
There is great interest in automatically detecting road weather and understanding its impacts on the overall safety of the transport network. This can, for example, support road condition-based maintenance or even serve as detection systems that assist safe driving during adverse climate conditions. In computer vision, previous work has demonstrated the effectiveness of deep learning in predicting weather conditions from outdoor images. However, training deep learning models to accurately predict weather conditions using real-world road-facing images is difficult due to: (1) the simultaneous occurrence of multiple weather conditions; (2) imbalanced occurrence of weather conditions throughout the year; and (3) road idiosyncrasies, such as road layouts, illumination, road objects etc. In this paper, we explore the use of focal loss function to force the learning process to focus on weather instances that are hard to learn with the objective to help address data imbalance. In addition, we explore the attention mechanism for pixel based dynamic weight adjustment to handle road idiosyncrasies using state-of-the-art vision transformer models. Experiments with a novel multi-label road weather dataset show that focal loss significantly increases the accuracy of computer vision approaches for imbalanced weather conditions. Furthermore, vision transformers outperforms current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks in predicting weather conditions with a validation accuracy of 92% and F1-score of 81.22%, which is impressive considering the imbalanced nature of the dataset.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0051.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: rain gauge; weather radar rain retrievals; ordinary Kriging; water budget; Central Italy
Online: 2 November 2022 (08:58:20 CET)
Accurate knowledge of the rain amount is an crucial driver in several hydro-meteorological applications. This is especially true in complex orography territories, which are typically impervious, thus leaving ungauged most of the mountain areas. Thanks to their spatial and temporal coverage, weather radars can potentially overcome such an issue. However, weather radar, if not accurately processed, can suffer from several limitations (e.g., beam blocking, altitude of the observation, path attenuation, indirectness of the measurement) that can hamper the reliability of the rain estimates performed. In this study, a comparison between rain gauge and weather radar retrievals is performed in the target area of the Abruzzo region in Italy, which is characterized by a heterogeneous orography ranging from the sea side to Apennine ridge. Consequently, the Abruzzo region has an inhomogeneous distribution of the rain gauges, with station density decreasing with the altitude reaching up to approximately 1500 m a.s.l. Notwithstanding, pluviometric inflow spatial distribution shows a sub-regional dependency as a function of four climatic and altimetric factors: coastal, hilly, mountain, and inner plain areas (i.e., Marsica). Such areas are used in this analysis to characterize the radar retrieval vs. rain gauge amounts in each of those zones. Compared to previous studies on the topic, the analysis presented an attention to the importance of an accurate selection of the climatic and altimetric sub-regional areas where undertake the radar vs. rain gauge comparison. This aspect is not only of great importance to correct biases in radar retrievals in a more selective way, but it also paves the way for more accurate hydro-meteorological applications (e.g., hydrological model initialization, quantify the aquifers recharge etc.) which, in general, require the accurate knowledge of rain amounts upstream of a basin. To fill the gap caused by the uneven rain gauge distribution, Ordinary Kriging has been applied on a regional scale to obtain 2D maps of rainfall data, which are cumulated on a monthly and yearly base. Weather radar data from the Italian mosaic are considered as well, in terms of rain rate retrievals and cumulations performed on the same time frame used for rain gauges. The period considered for the analysis is two continuous years: 2017 and 2018. The output of the elaborations are raster maps for both radar and interpolated rain gauges, where every pixel contains a rainfall quantity. Although the results show a general underestimation in the weather radar data especially in mountain and Marsica areas, even though within the 95% confidence interval of the OK estimation. Our analysis highlights that the average bias between radar and rain gauges, in terms of precipitation amounts, is a function of altitude and is almost constant in each of the selected areas. This achievement suggests that after a proper selection of homogeneous target areas, the radar retrievals can be corrected using the denser network of rain gauges typically distributed at lower altitudes and extend such correction at higher altitudes without loss of generality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0178.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: quadcopter; ultrasonic weather station; turbulence, longitudinal and lateral spectra, scales, urban environment
Online: 12 January 2022 (16:19:23 CET)
The capabilities of a quadcopter in the hover mode for low-altitude sensing of atmospheric turbulence with high spatial resolution in urban areas characterized by complex orography are investigated. The studies were carried out in different seasons (winter, spring, summer, and fall), and the quadcopter hovered in the immediate vicinity of ultrasonic weather stations. The DJI Phantom 4 Pro quadcopter and AMK-03 ultrasonic weather stations installed in different places of the studied territory were used in the experiment. The smoothing procedure was used to main regularities in the behavior of the longitudinal and lateral spectra of turbulence in the inertial and energy production ranges. The longitudinal and lateral turbulence scales were estimated by the least-square fit method with the von Karman model as a regression curve. It is shown that the turbulence spectra obtained with DJI Phantom 4 Pro and AMK-03 generally coincide with minor differences observed in the high-frequency region of the spectrum. In the inertial range, the behavior of the turbulence spectra shows that they obey the Kolmogorov-Obukhov “5/3” law. In the energy production range, the longitudinal and lateral turbulence scales and their ratio measured by DJI Phantom 4 Pro and AMK-03 agree to a good accuracy. Discrepancies in the data obtained with the quadcopter and the ultrasonic weather stations at the territory with complex orography are explained by the partial correlation of the wind velocity series at different measurement points and the influence of the inhomogeneous surface.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0044.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Weather radar; rain gauge; rainfall; QPE; RADOLAN; RADKLIM; GIS; radar climatology; uncertainties
Online: 4 February 2020 (10:42:56 CET)
Precipitation is a crucial driver for many environmental processes and weather radars are capable of providing precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are also subject to various potential uncertainties. This study explores the development, uncertainties and potentials of the hourly operational German radar-based and gauge-adjusted QPE called RADOLAN and its reanalysed radar climatology dataset named RADKLIM in comparison to ground-truth rain gauge data. The precipitation datasets are statistically analysed across various time scales ranging from annual and seasonal aggregations to hourly rainfall intensities in regard to their capability to map long-term precipitation distribution, to detect low intensity rainfall and to capture heavy rainfall. Moreover, the impacts of season, orography and distance from the radar on long-term precipitation sums are examined in order to evaluate dataset performance and to describe inherent biases. Results revealed that both radar products tend to underestimate total precipitation sums and particularly high intensity rainfall. But our analyses also showed significant improvements throughout the RADOLAN time series as well as major advances through the climatologic reanalysis regarding the correction of typical radar artefacts, orographic and winter precipitation as well as range-dependent attenuation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0404.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; multi-model ensemble; wind power
Online: 20 September 2018 (08:17:46 CEST)
This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0096.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: complex catchment; weather X-band radars; flash floods; multifractals; spatio-temporal variability
Online: 14 October 2017 (03:10:07 CEST)
This paper presents a comparison between rain gauges, C-band and X-band radar data over an instrumented and regulated catchment of the Paris region, as well as their respective hydrological impacts with the help of flow observations and a semi-distributed hydrological model. Both radars confirm the high spatial variability of the rainfall down to their space resolution (respectively one kilometer and 250 m) and therefore underscore limitations of semi-distributed simulations. The use of the polarimetric capacity of the Météo-France C-band radar was limited to corrections of the horizontal reflectivity and its rainfall estimates are adjusted with the help of a rain gauge network. On the contrary, neither calibration was performed for the polarimetric X-band radar of the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (below called ENPC X-band radar), nor any optimization of its scans. In spite of that and the non-negligible fact that the catchment was much closer to the C-band radar than to the X-band radar (20 km vs. 40 km), the latter seems to perform at least as well as the former, but with a higher scale resolution. This characteristic was best highlighted with the help of a multifractal analysis of the respective radar data, which also shows that the X-band radar was able to pick up a few extremes that were smoothed out by the C-band radar.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1386.v1
Subject: Engineering, Transportation Science And Technology Keywords: airport delay prediction; convective weather; image recognition; deep convolutional neural network; taxonomic imbalance
Online: 23 October 2023 (09:57:22 CEST)
Accurate prediction of the degree of airport delays under the influence of convective weather is crucial for collaborative traffic management implementation and improving the efficiency of airport operations. However, existing studies usually only consider numerical-type quantitative features of weather-affected traffic in their models, and lack the introduction of spatial information to comprehensively portray the traffic operation scenarios under the influence of weather. In order to overcome this problem, this paper firstly designs a new image representation of weather-affected air traffic, and constructs a multi-channel traffic and weather scene image (MTWSI) by populating the airspace two-dimensional grid with traffic and meteorological information to represent the overall traffic operation situation in the terminal area under the influence of convective weather; then, a deep convolutional neural network-based airport delay prediction model ( ADLCNN), which takes MTWSI images as input and uses a specific CNN model to extract the deep features that affect traffic operation in it to input into the subsequent classification algorithm to predict the flight delay level; finally, a series of comparative experiments are carried out on the operational data of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, and the experimental validation shows that, compared with the traditional machine learning methods, the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction The experimental validation shows that the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction model has satisfactory prediction performance compared with the traditional machine learning methods, which also proves that the proposed MTWSI method can more comprehensively respond to the real traffic conditions.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0421.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Early warning; El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Climate services, weather, and climate information
Online: 8 October 2023 (07:28:20 CEST)
The brief paper utilises Zimbabwe as a case study to discuss the effects of El Nino in Southern Africa. It offers potential adaptation and mitigation measures for farmers to prepare for the forecasted El Nino-influenced rainy season 2023/24 and the future. To reduce climate and weather hazards connected with El Nino, the brief report suggests anticipatory action methods be applied in southern Africa, using Zimbabwe as a case study. To protect farmers' livelihoods and enhance drought readiness for the forthcoming agricultural seasons, the paper suggests a degree of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making that the agriculture industry should adhere to. It emphasised the significance of providing farmers with knowledge and advice regarding drought and heat stress, including cultivating crop varieties and livestock and sufficient fire safety precautions. The brief paper calls to advocate for anticipatory action to avert El Nino in Southern Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1871.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: urban climate; Copernicus dataset; urban heat island; weather types; urban overheating; synoptic classification
Online: 26 May 2023 (07:06:17 CEST)
In this study we investigated the association between weather types (WTs) and the Urban Heat Island Intensity (UHII) in the region of Attica (Greece). The application of the methodology results in ten WTs over Attica region. The UHII was calculated for every hour of the day from 2008 to 2017, using a new air temperature dataset produced by Copernicus Climate Change Service. To have more clear results concerning the association between WTs and UHII, we have used also the upper 5% of UHII (Urban Overheating-UO). The UO have been estimated for two-time intervals (daytime and nighttime) and for the warm period (June-September). The UHII frequency distribution as well as the spatial characteristics of the UO were also investigated. It was found that UO was amplified under WT2 during the night while, WT10 was mainly responsible for exacerbated UO magnitude at daytime, in all months. Furthermore, analysis results revealed that the UO effect is more pronounced in Athens during the night, especially at Athens center. The daytime hot-spots identified mainly in sub-urban and rural areas. Therefore, this methodology may help for heat mitigation strategies and climate adaptation measures, in urban environments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0388.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: rainfall thresholds; rainstorms; runoff erosion; weather radar; early warning system; risk reduction; resilience
Online: 6 May 2023 (07:55:26 CEST)
The effects of global warming combined with the progressive expansion of urbanization have considerably increased exposure to urban flooding and runoff widespread erosion risk, also causing shallow landslides and mud flows, respectively in urbanized areas of lowland and hill/foothill environments. Increasing urban flooding resilience has become a priority at virtually all levels of governance. The analysis of a different hazard scenarios, in which various hydro-meteorological conditions and management alternatives are examined, should act as the basis for the effective design and evaluation of interventions to improve urban flooding resilience. Turin Metropolitan Area (TMA), located in north-western Italy, represents a unique case due to its complex orography, with a mountainous sector in the west side and a flat or hilly part in the east side. During the warm season, these environmental conditions make the urban area prone to severe atmospheric convection causing frequent hailstorms and rainstorms of high intensity that may impact on urban infrastructures (i.e., drainage system and road network), thus requiring an adequate management as a key factor to reducing risk and losses. The urban areas of TMA are monitored by polarimetric Doppler weather radars and by a dense rain gauges network. Analyzing several case studies of urban flooding, this research work assesses the feasibility of a meteorological radar early warning system based on the identification of rainfall thresholds that characterize urban flooding, occurring in the lowlands, and the runoff erosion phenomena affecting the urbanized hills and foothills.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0162.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: operational forecast sytem; fire modeling; numerical weather prediction; high spatial reoslution; WRF-Fire
Online: 12 April 2018 (08:03:28 CEST)
Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1426.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: BC wildfires; climate change; conifer forest fuel complex; fire danger; fire weather; fuel moisture
Online: 23 October 2023 (10:14:12 CEST)
Prescriptions for fuels management are universally applied across forest types in British Columbia, Canada, to reduce fire behaviour potential in the wildland-urban interface. Fuel thinning treatments are assumed to reduce the potential for sustained ignition and crown fire initiation by reducing surface fuel loading. We hypothesized that these prescriptions are not appropriate for the coastal wet forests in the Whistler region of the province. Our study measured the efficacy of fuel thinning treatments in four stands located in the Whistler community forest. We examined several in-stand microclimate variables during snow melt in the spring and at the height of fire danger in late summer, at thinned and unthinned locations paired using GIS- analysis. We found that thinning increased the wildfire risk based on the differences between unthinned and thinned areas in the same forest stand.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0389.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Numerical weather prediction; Time integration; Filtering; Laplace transform; semi-implicit; semi-Lagrangian; Forecast accuracy
Online: 23 August 2022 (03:13:59 CEST)
A time integration scheme based on semi-Lagrangian advection and Laplace transform adjustment has been implemented in a baroclinic primitive equation model. The semi-Lagrangian scheme makes it possible to use large time steps. However, errors arising from the semi-implicit scheme increase with the time step size. In contrast, the errors using the Laplace transform adjustment remain relatively small for typical time steps used with semi-Lagrangian advection. Numerical experiments confirm the superior performance of the Laplace transform scheme relative to the semi-implicit reference model. The algorithmic complexity of the scheme is comparable to the reference model, making it computationally competitive, and indicating its potential for integrating weather and climate prediction models.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0722.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: extreme precipitation; Mediterranean region; Pyrenees; return period; teleconnection indices; weather type.; Backward trajectory; IVT
Online: 27 April 2021 (13:00:21 CEST)
Mountain systems within the Mediterranean region, e.g. the Pyrenees, are very sensitive to climate change. In the present study, we quantified the magnitude of extreme precipitation events and the number of days with torrential precipitation (daily precipitation ≥ 100 mm) in all the rain gauges available in the Pyrenees for the 1981-2015 period, analyzing the contribution of the synoptic scale in this type of events. The easternmost (under the Mediterranean influence) and north-westernmost (under Atlantic influence) areas of the Pyrenees registered the highest number of torrential events. The heaviest events are expected in the eastern part, i.e. 400 mm day-1 for a return period of 200 years. Northerly advections over the Iberian Peninsula, which present a low zonal index, i.e. im-plying a stronger meridional component, give rise to torrential events over the western Pyrenees; and easterly advections favour extreme precipitation over the eastern Pyrenees. The air mass travels a long way, from the east coast of North America, bringing heavy rainfall to the western Pyrenees. In the case of the torrential events over the eastern Pyrenees, the air mass causing the events in these areas is very short and originates in the Mediterranean Basin. The NAO index has no influence upon the occurrence of torrential events in the Pyrenees, but these events are closely related to certain Mediterranean teleconnections such as the WeMO
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0034.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 1 March 2021 (17:14:19 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (4) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that “wild” respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the existence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. The TDVT hypothesis has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. TVDT is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0389.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 19 January 2021 (16:42:56 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed many generations of microbiologists: (1) the seasonal occurrence of viral respiratory illness; (2) the occurrence of respiratory illness year-round in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of illness to temperature drops in temperate regions; (4) the explosive arrival and rapid termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses. I discuss the inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality, and propose a simple hypothesis, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TD-VT), that is compatible with the above and other features of respiratory illness. TD-VT notes that viruses can often transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining the mobility of their hosts) and suggests that most endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity, in the sense that they normally replicate rapidly only at temperatures below normal body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. I review biochemical and tissue-culture studies that found that “wild” respiratory viruses often show natural thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific tropism within the human body, and I discuss the evident tendency for viral strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. I also explore the possible misinterpretation of early experiments where volunteers were inoculated nasally with viral samples and then chilled. Next, I discuss the practical implications of the TD-VT hypothesis for preventing and treating respiratory illness. Finally, I note that the hypothesis is very testable and make suggestions for the most important experiments to increase our understanding of the seasonality and pathogenicity of viral respiratory illness.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0211.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Occupational Accidents; Weather Circumstances; Heat Stress; Precipitation; Accident Mortality; time-series analyses
Online: 5 November 2020 (12:26:54 CET)
In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0546.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pathology And Pathobiology Keywords: COVID-19; face masks; aerosol; infection transmission route; weather conditions; viral load; exposure; dose
Online: 21 May 2020 (04:05:50 CEST)
Effects of the convection flow, atmospheric diffusivity and humidity on evolution and travel distances of exhaled aerosol clouds by an infected person are considered. The aim of this work is to evaluate the importance of aerosol transmission routes and the effectiveness of the 2-metre separation distance policy. A potential impact of use of face masks on the infection transmission rate, and an opportunity to reduce infection in hospitals, care homes and other public spaces by appropriate monitoring and filtering of air are also considered. The results obtained demonstrate that aerosol particles generated by coughing and sneezing can travel over 30 m. Modelling of the evolution of aerosol clouds generated by coughing and sneezing enables us to evaluate the deposition dose of aerosol particles in healthy individuals. For example, a person in a public place (e.g. supermarket or car park) can accumulate in the respiratory system up to 200 virus copies in 2 min time by breathing in virus laden aerosols. Wearing face mask considerably reduces the deposited load down to 2 virus copies per 2 min. The modelling also suggests that it should be possible to measure virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) within aerosol particles in hospitals and public places, e.g. care homes and supermarkets.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0063.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Pandemic geographical distribution; Epidemic forecasting; Weather conditions; Climatic zones.
Online: 6 April 2020 (14:11:52 CEST)
This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic – also known as COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) – could have been favored by specific weather conditions. It was found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China) – where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020 – was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic has been very severe from February to March. The similarity suggests that this pandemic worsens under weather temperatures between 4°C and 11°C. Based on this result, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From January to March, this isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from January to March. It is predicted that next spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps are provided as supplements.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0194.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: fire weather; fire climate; large wildfires; downslope windstorm; wildland urban interface; drought; foehn winds
Online: 16 April 2018 (08:00:29 CEST)
Two extreme wind-driven wildfire events impacted northern and southern California in late 2017 leading to 46 fatalities and thousands of structures lost. This study describes the meteorological and climatological factors that drove and enabled these wildfire events and quantifies the rarity of such conditions over the observational record. Both extreme wildfire events featured fire-weather metrics that were unprecedented in the observational record in addition to a sequence of climatic conditions that preconditioned fuels. The North Bay fires that affected portions of northern California in early October occurred coincident with strong downslope winds. The vast majority of the fires’ devastating effects and acres burned occurred overnight and within the first twelve hours of ignition. By contrast, the southern California fires of December were characterized by the longest Santa Ana wind event on record and included the largest wildfire in California’s history. Both fire events occurred following an exceptionally wet winter that was preceded by the drought of record in California. Fuels were further preconditioned as the warmest summer and autumn on record occurred in northern and southern California, respectively. Accelerated curing of fuels coupled with the delayed onset of autumn precipitation allowed for critically low dead fuel moisture leading up to the foehn wind events. Fire weather conditions were well forecasted several days prior to the fire. However, the rarity of fire-weather conditions that occurred in the wildland urban interface, along with other societal factors were key contributors to wildfire impacts to communities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0747.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Space Science Keywords: low-energy module; low-energy particles; gamma-ray bursts; space weather; cubesat; ΔE-E technique
Online: 12 June 2023 (03:36:12 CEST)
An accurate flux measurement of low-energy charged particles trapped in the magnetosphere is necessary for space weather characterization and to study the coupling between the lithosphere and magnetosphere, which allows for the investigation of the correlations between seismic events and particle precipitation from Van Allen belts. In this work, the project of a CubeSat space spectrometer, the Low-Energy Module (LEM), is shown. The detector will be able to perform an event-based measurement of the energy, arrival direction, and composition of low-energy charged particles down to 0.1 MeV. Moreover, thanks to a CdZnTe mini-calorimeter, the LEM spectrometer also allows for photon detection in the sub-MeV range, joining the quest for the investigation of the nature of Gamma-ray bursts. The particle identification of the LEM relies on the ΔE−E technique performed by thin silicon detectors. This multipurpose spectrometer will fit within a 10 × 10 × 10 cm3 CubeSat frame, and it will be constructed as a joint project between the University of Trento, FBK, and INFN-TIFPA. To fulfil the size and mass requirements, an innovative approach, based on active particle collimation, was designed for the LEM; this avoids the heavy/bulky passive collimators of previous space detectors. In this paper, we will present the LEM geometry, its detection concept, the results from the developed GEANT4 simulation, and some characterisations of a candidate silicon detector for the instrument payload.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2180.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: Sensor fusion; object detection; deep learning; autonomous vehicles; camera-radar; adverse weather; fog; attention module
Online: 31 May 2023 (07:25:27 CEST)
AVs suffer reduced maneuverability and performance due to the degradation in sensor performances in fog. Such degradation causes significant object detection errors essential for AVs' safety-critical conditions. For instance, YOLOv5 performs significantly well under favorable weather but suffers miss detections and false positives due to atmospheric scattering caused by fog particles. Existing deep object detection techniques often exhibit a high degree of accuracy. The drawback is being sluggish at object detection in fog. Object detection methods with fast detection speed have been obtained using deep learning at the expense of accuracy. The problem of the lack of balance between detection speed and accuracy in fog persist. This paper presents an improved YOLOv5-based multi-sensor fusion network that combines radar's object detection with a camera image bounding box. We transformed radar detection by mapping the radar detections into a two-dimensional image coordinate and projected the resultant radar image on the camera image. Using the attention mechanism, we emphasized and improved important feature representation used for object detection while reducing high-level feature information loss. We trained and tested our multi-sensor fusion network on clear and multi-fog weather datasets obtained from the CARLA simulator. Our result shows that the proposed method significantly enhances the detection of distant and small objects. Our small CR-YOLOnet model best strikes a balance between accuracy and speed with an accuracy of 0.849 at 69 fps.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0614.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: marine weather; characteristic wave height; storm surge; shore platform; overtopping wave; hydrodynamics equation; flooding hazard
Online: 25 June 2021 (10:12:06 CEST)
Boulder dynamics may provide essential data for the coastal evolution and hazards assessment and can be focused as a proxy for the onshore effect of intense storm waves. In this work, detailed observations of currently available satellite imagery of the Earth surface allowed to identify several coastal boulders displacements in the Southern Apulia coast (Italy), in a period between July 2018 and June 2020. Field surveys confirmed the displacements of several dozens of boulders up to several meters in size, also allowing the determination of the initial position for many of them. Archive weather analyses identified two possible causative storms during the same period, and calculations based on analytical equations are found in agreement with the displacement by storm waves for most of the observed boulders. The results help to give insights about the onshore effect of high storm waves on the coastal hydrodynamics and the possible future flooding hazard in the studied coast.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0038.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: South African Weather Services; radiometric network; climatic zone; Angström-Prescott; Global Horizontal Irradiance; sunshine duration
Online: 2 August 2020 (15:14:49 CEST)
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) manages an in-situ solar irradiance radiometric network of 13 stations and a very dense sunshine recording network; located in all six macro-climate zones of South Africa. A sparsely distributed radiometric network and over a landscape with dynamic climate and weather shifts is inadequate for solar energy studies and applications. Therefore, there is a need to develop mathematical models to estimate solar irradiation for a multitude of diverse climates. In this study, the annual regression coefficients, a and b, of the Ångström-Prescott (AP) model that can be used to estimate global horizontal irradiance from observed sunshine hours were calibrated and validated with observed station data. The AP regression coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the six macro-climate zones of South Africa using the observation data that spans 2013 to 2019. The predictive effectiveness of the calibrated AP model coefficients was evaluated by comparing estimated and observed daily global horizontal irradiance. The maximum annual relative Mean Bias Error (rMBE) was 0.371 %, relative Mean Absolute Error (rMAE) was 0.745 %, relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) was 0.910 % and the worst-case correlation coefficient (R2) was 0.910. The statistical validation metrics results show that there is a strong correlation and linear relation between observed and estimated solar radiation values. The AP model coefficients calculated in this study can be used with quantitative confidence in estimating daily GHI data at locations in South Africa where the daily observation sunshine duration data is available.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0217.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: Intelligent Load Forecasting; Demand-Side Management; Pattern Similarity; Hierarchical Forecasting; Feature Selection; Weather Station Selection
Online: 18 December 2018 (10:38:10 CET)
Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201702.0080.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: ROS; snow; rain; flood; WRF; numerical weather forecast; energy balance; discharge estimation; early alert system
Online: 22 February 2017 (04:26:49 CET)
From June 18 to 19, 2013, the Ésera river in the Pyrenees, Northern Spain, caused widespread damage due to flooding as a result of torrential rains and sustained snowmelt. We estimate the contribution of snow melt to total discharge applying a snow energy balance to the catchment. Precipitation is derived from sparse local measurements and the WRF-ARW model over three nested domains, down to a grid cell size of 2 km. Temperature profiles, precipitation and precipitation gradient are well simulated, although with a possible displacement regarding the observations. Snowpack melting was correctly reproduced and verified in three instrumented sites, and according to satellite images. We found that the hydrological simulations agree well with measured discharge. Snowmelt represented 33% of total runoff during the main flood event and 23% at peak flow. The snow energy balance model indicates that most of the energy for snow melt during the day of maximum precipitation came from turbulent fluxes. This approach forecast correctly peak flow and discharge during normal conditions at least 24h in advance and could give an early warning of the extreme event 2.5 days before.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0262.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: Multi-object tracking; DeepSORT; object detection; sensor fusion; deep learning, autonomous vehicles; radars; adverse weather; fog
Online: 5 June 2023 (08:09:38 CEST)
The presence of fog in the background can prevent small and distant objects from being detected, let alone tracked. Under safety-critical conditions, multi-object tracking models require faster-tracking speed while maintaining high object-tracking accuracy. The original DeepSORT algorithm used YOLOv4 for the detection phase, and a simple neural network for deep appearance descriptor. Consequently, the feature map generated loses relevant details about the track being matched with a given detection in fog. Targets with a high degree of appearance similarity on the detection frame are more likely to be mismatched, resulting in identity switches or track failures in heavy fog. We propose an improved multi-object tracking model based on the DeepSORT algorithm to im-prove tracking accuracy and speed under foggy weather conditions. First, we employed our camera-radar fusion network (CR-YOLOnet) in the detection phase for faster and more accurate object detection. We proposed an appearance feature network to replace the basic convolutional neural network. We incorporated GhostNet to take the place of the traditional convolutional layers to generate more features and reduce computational complexities and cost. We adopted a segmentation module and fed the semantic labels of the corresponding input frame to add rich semantic information to the low-level appearance feature maps. Our proposed method outperformed YOLOv5 + DeepSORT with a 35.15% increase in multi-object tracking accuracy, a 32.65% increase in multi-object tracking precision, the speed increased by 37.56%, and identity switches decreased by 46.81%.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1070.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: thunderstorms; convective available potential energy (CAPE); climate change; alaro model; numerical weather prediction models; stenvs; shear; Belgium
Online: 17 July 2023 (11:26:18 CEST)
Strong convective storms can be a serious threat to modern society, influencing both the economy and human life. Thunderstorms can bring much-needed rain after a dry spell, but the nature of thunderstorm mostly causes damage due to high wind associated with it and heavy intensity rain that mostly causes quick overlandflow and flashfloods. The paper focused on the 2011 Pukkelpop event in Belgium where due to heavy thunderstorm a lot of financial damage occurred, and five casualties. In this paper we look into the basic elements that enforces the creation of a thunderstorm like CAPE and windshear. A representative grid has been taken from the Alaro-0 model of 12.5 km resolution for the analysis of the thunderstorm over Belgium which is detailed out in the methodology. The model runs of Alaro-0 from Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) is used for historical and future years for CAPE and Shear. We look into STEnv which is a composite number that can provide some insight on occurrence of thunderstorm, and STEnv is when CAPE*Shear exceeds certain threshold. In this study the threshold has been chosen as 97%. Only summer months have been taken into account into this study as summer(s) has the most thunderstorm in Belgium. The analysis of CAPE and STEnv over historical period (1977-2005), near future (2041-2069) and far future (2071-2099) shows significant increase in occurrence of thunderstorm in the 2071-2099s, specially in extreme cases such as 97% and 99% quantile. CAPE (J/Kg) increases in all future scenarios compared to the historical period. In 2071-2099s, CAPE increases from 2100 J/Kg to 2300 J/Kg (90% quantile) and from 3500 J/Kg to 3900 J/Kg (99% quantile) compared to the historical period. The number of STEnv increases from 300 to 378 in top 10% storm case (90% quantile), 158 to 218 in top 5% storm (95% quantile), 97 to 153 in top 3% storm (97% quantile) and 33 to 66 in top 1% storm (99% quantile) with a 90% confidence interval overall. Shear mostly remains unchanged. The study also shows spatial variation of CAPE, shear and STEnv over Belgium for present and future scenarios in different extremities (90%, 95%, 97% and 99% quantiles). There is a good indication that increase in CAPE translates to increase in STEnv, which is an accepted measure to predict occurrence of thunderstorm. Future climate change also amplifies the occurrence of thunderstorm, which is coherent with relevant studies. The uncertainty related to the study can be reduced with more detailed dataset and involvement of numerical weather prediction models beyond data statistics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1349.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: compound drought-heat extremes; summer/winter fire seasons; VPD; weather variables; Three Gorges Reservoir; China; climate change
Online: 19 June 2023 (11:23:42 CEST)
Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of compound drought-heat events (CDHEs), potentially leading to larger and more extreme fire seasons in mesic forests. Wildfire activity in subtropical China, under the influence of monsoonal rainfall, was historically limited to dry winters and rare in rainy summers. Here we seek to test that this area is on the brink of a major change in its fire regime characterized by larger fire seasons, extending into the summer, leading to increases in burned area. We analyze fire activity in Chongqing Municipality (46,890 km2), an important area in subtropical China hosting the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We observed significant increases in summer forest fires under anomalous dry-hot summer conditions, where total burned area was 3-6 higher than the historical annual mean (largely confined to the winter season). Vapor pressure deficit, an indicator of hot and dry conditions, was a strong predictor of fire activity, with major wildfires occurring on days where VPD was higher than 3.5kPa. Results indicate that major wildfire activity may occur in the area as a result of climate change, unless strong fire prevention policies are implemented.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1534.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Predictive models; Weather research and forecasting (WRF); Solar irradiance forecasting; Solar PV power forecasting; Renewable energy sources.
Online: 23 May 2023 (02:32:03 CEST)
Accurately predicting the power of solar power generation can greatly reduce the impact of the randomness and volatility of power generation on the stability of the power grid system, which is beneficial for the balanced operation and optimized dispatch of the power grid system, and reduces operating costs. Solar PV power generation depends on weather conditions, which are prone to large fluctuations under different weather conditions. Its power generation is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. Recently, the demand for further investigation and effective use on the uncertainty of short-term solar PV power generation prediction has been getting increasing attention in many application of renewable energy sources. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of output power of solar PV power generation and develop a precise predictive model, the authors worked predictive algorithms for the output power of a solar PV power generation system. Moreover, since short-term solar PV power forecasting is one of the important aspects for optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and electricity markets, this review focuses on the predictive models of solar PV power generation, which can be verified in the daily planning and operation of a smart grid system. In addition, the predictive methods in the reviewed literature are classified according to the input data source used for accurate predictive models, and the case studies and examples proposed are analyzed in detail. The contributions, advantages and disadvantages of the predictive probabilistic methods are compared. Finally, the future studies of short-term solar PV power forecasting is proposed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.0042.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: atmospheric electricity; Global Electric Circuit; Carnegie curve; air ions; fair-weather condition; main meteorological quantities; Siberia; mountain landscapes
Online: 1 December 2023 (05:35:00 CET)
Currently, many researchers have an interest in the investigation of the electric field in the fair-weather electric environment, along with its diurnal and seasonal variations across all regions of the world. However, a similar study in the southern part of Siberia has not yet been carried out. In this regard, the study aims to estimate the mean values of the electric field and their variations in the mountain and steppe landscapes using measurement data from the Khakass-Tyva expedition in 2022. The maximum values of positive ion density were noted at the site in the Iyussko-Shirinsky steppe between Belyo and Tus salt lakes in the Khakass-Minusinsk ba-sin. The maximum values of negative ion density were observed at site in the Shol tract in the center part of the Tyva depression. The potential gradient tends to increase with altitude and reaches a maximum in the highlands. The maximum values of the potential gradient were noted in the highlands plateau near the Mongun-Taiga mountain massif and Khindiktig-Khol lake. The diurnal cycles of potential gradient at different observation sites were divided into two groups: 1) a diurnal cycle in the form of a double wave; 2) a daily cycle with a more complex course due to the strong influence of local factors.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0082.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: noise; noise induced hearing loss; noise apps; weather stressors; psychological stressors; tractor safety; seatbelt use; dust; air quality
Online: 6 December 2019 (11:37:43 CET)
There are numerous hazards found on the farms. Most of them are ignored, which might cause the farmer to pay later in terms of his ill health, potential injuries or death. The current article discusses some of the common issues such as dust and air quality concerns; environmental (weather) stressors and psychological stressors; noise and hearing protection; and tractor safety and seatbelt use. And finally, the recommendations to overcome the hazards are discussed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0917.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Predictive models; Weather research and forecasting (WRF); Uncertainty; Wind forecasting; Ultra short term and Short term; Wind power generation
Online: 25 April 2023 (10:10:36 CEST)
The prediction of wind power output is part of the basic work of power grid dispatching and energy distribution. At present, the output power prediction is mainly obtained by fitting and regressing the historical data. The medium- and long-term power prediction results exhibit large deviations due to the uncertainty of wind power generation. In order to meet the demand for accessing large-scale wind power into the electricity grid and to further improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, it is necessary to develop models for accurate and precise short-term wind power prediction based on advanced algorithms for studying the output power of a wind power generation system. This paper summarizes the contribution of the current advanced wind power forecasting technology and delineates the key advantages and disadvantages of various wind power forecasting models. These models have different forecasting capabilities, update the weights of each model in real time, improve the comprehensive forecasting capability of the model, and have good application prospects in wind power generation forecasting. Furthermore, the case studies and examples in the literature for accurately predicting ultra-short-term and short-term wind power generation with uncertainty and randomness are reviewed and analyzed. Finally, we present prospects for future studies that can serve as useful directions for other researchers planning to conduct similar experiments and investigations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0152.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: extreme weather; heat waves; anvironment and public healt; aged; older adults; social behaviour; interpersonal relation; social isolation; mortality; lonelliness
Online: 11 October 2021 (08:59:11 CEST)
Background: Heat waves are correlated with increased mortality in the aged population. Social isolation is known as a vulnerability factor. This study aims at evaluating the correlation between an intervention to reduce social isolation and the increase in mortality in the population over 80 during heat waves. Methods: The study adopts a retrospective ecologic design. We compared the excess mortality rate (EMR) in the over 80 population during heat waves in urban areas of Rome (Italy), where a program to reduce social isolation was implemented compared to others where it was not implemented. We measured mortality of the summer periods from 2015 to 2019 compared with 2014 (a year without heat waves). Winter mortality, cadastral income and proportion of over 90 were included in the multivariate Poisson regression. Results: The EMR in the intervention and controls was 2.70% and 3.81%, respectively. Rate ratio 0.70 (c.i. 0.54 - 0.92, p-value 0.01). The Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) of the interventions with respect to the controls is 0.76 (c.i. 0.59 - 0.98). After adjusting for other variables, the IRR was 0.44 (c.i. 0.32 - 0.60). Conclusions: Reducing social isolation could limit the impact of heat waves on the mortality of the elderly population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0510.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Space And Planetary Science Keywords: Winds; SCATSAT-1; NCMRWF (National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting), CCMP (Cross Calibrated Mul-ti-Platform) and Particle filter
Online: 28 January 2023 (03:03:19 CET)
Observations of ocean surface winds from Indian scatterometer SCATSAT-1 have been combined with background wind field from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model available at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Prediction (NCMRWF) to generate a 6-hourly gridded hybrid wind product. A distinctive feature of the study is to produce a global gridded wind field from SCATSAT-1 scatterometer passes with spatio-temporal data gaps at regular synoptic hours relevant for forcing models and other NWP studies. This is done by making use of concepts from the modern particle filter technique, which does not represent the model probability density function (PDF) following the Gaussian technique. The 6 hourly hybrid wind is generated for the entire year of 2018 and is validated using the wind speed from daily gridded level-4 SCATSAT-1 winds (L4AW), Cross Calibrated Multi-Platform dataset (CCMP) and global buoy data from National Data Buoy Centre (NDBC). The results indicate potential of the technique to produce scatterometer winds at the desired temporal frequency with significantly less noise and along swath biases. The study shows the generated hybrid winds have very high quality with respect to the already existing daily product available from ISRO.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1087.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Astronomy And Astrophysics Keywords: Space weather; scatter polarimeter; hybrid pixel detectors; Timepix; dE/dX spectrometer; low earth orbit; magnetic spectrometer; galactic cosmic rays; space instrumentation
Online: 17 November 2023 (05:15:34 CET)
In space application, hybrid pixel detectors of the Timepix family have been considered mainly for measurement of radiation levels and radiation dosimetry in low earth orbits. By the example of the Space Application of Timepix Radiation Monitor (SATRAM), we demonstrate the unique capabilities of Timepix-based miniaturized radiation detectors for particle separation. Using a novel method for proton spectrum reconstruction, we were able to measure the spectrum of protons trapped in the inner Van-Allen radiation belt, for the first time with a single-layer detector. We assess the measurement stability and the resiliency of the detector to the space environment demonstrating that, even though degradation is observed, data quality has not been affected significantly over more than 10 years. Based on the SATRAM heritage and the capabilities of the latest-generation Timepix-series chips, we discuss their applicability for use in a compact magnetic spectrometer for deep-space mission or in the high radiation environment of the Jupiter radiation belts, and their capability for use as single-layer X- and γ-ray polarimeter. The latter was supported by measurement of the polarization of scattered radiation in a laboratory experiment, where a modulation of 80% was found.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0202.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: solar energy; solar radiation prediction; hybrid machine learning; feature selection; feature extraction; classification algorithms; regression analysis; weather research and forecasting (WRF)
Online: 10 November 2021 (10:48:15 CET)
Solar radiation prediction is an important process in ensuring optimal exploitation of solar energy power. Numerous models have been applied to this problem, such as numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence models. However, well-designed hybridization approaches that combine numerical models with artificial intelligence models to yield a more powerful model can provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose novel hybrid machine learning approaches that exploit auxiliary numerical data. The proposed hybrid methods invoke different machine learning paradigms, including feature selection, classification, and regression. Additionally, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used in the proposed hybrid models. Feature selection is used for feature space dimension reduction to reduce the large number of recorded parameters that affect estimation and prediction processes. The rough set theory is applied for attribute reduction and the dependency degree is used as a fitness function. We investigate the effect of the attribute reduction process with thirty different classification and prediction models in addition to the proposed hybrid model. Then, different machine learning models are constructed based on classification and regression techniques to predict solar radiation. Moreover, other hybrid prediction models are formulated to use the output of the numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) as learning elements in order to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed methodologies are evaluated using a data set that is collected from different regions in Saudi Arabia.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0235.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: Intelligent Load Forecasting 1; Demand-Side Management 2; Pattern Similarity 3; Hierarchical Forecasting 4; Feature Selection 5; Weather Station Selection 6
Online: 19 December 2018 (12:19:14 CET)
Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0078.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate and Weather; Climate Model; Heat Transport; Radiation Balance; Atmospheric circulation; sea surface temperature; Planetary boundary layer; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Online: 6 June 2022 (09:38:23 CEST)
The study of long-term average weather patterns is known as climatology. It is a distinct field of study from meteorology and can be broken down into several subdivision. In order to predict the future, the knowledge of climatology is essential. In other words, with the help of climatology, we can figure out how likely it is that snow and hail will fall to the ground, and how much solar thermal radiation can reach a certain location etc. Climatology often focuses on how the climate has changed over time and how it has affected people and events. Both meteorology and climatology fall under the general term "meteorology", in particular, they are subdivision of research in the same field. In case of predicting the weather, meteorologists use variables such as humidity, air pressure, and temperature. This article's primary objective is to familiarize engineers with the fundamentals of climate and its processes so that they can effectively apply this knowledge to comprehend the climatic impact on water resources systems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0290.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Fire Weather Index (FWI); Continuous Haines Index (CHI); Burning Index (BI); Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI); Fire Danger index (FDI); Spread Component (SP); Wildfires; Portugal
Online: 29 April 2022 (08:02:54 CEST)
Forest fires though part of a natural forest renewal process, when frequent and assuming large-scale proportions have detrimental impacts on biodiversity, agroforestry systems, soil erosion, air and water quality, infrastructures, and economy. Portugal (PT) endures extreme forest fires, with a record of burned area in 2017. These extreme wildfire events (EWE) concentrated in few days but with high burned areas, are among other factors, linked to severe fire weather conditions. In this study a comparison between several fire danger indices is performed for a reference period 2001‒2021 and 2017 (May‒October) for the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Continuous Haines Index (CHI), Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI), Burning Index (BI) and Fire Danger index (FDI). A daily analysis for the so-called Pedrogão Grande wildfire (June 17th) and the October major fires (October 15th) included the Spread Component (SP) and Ignition Component (IC). Results revealed high above average values for all indices for 2017 in comparison with 2001‒2021 particularly, for October. High statistically significant monthly correlations between FWI, FDI and BI were found, along with lower between FWI and CHI. These correlations are depicted in the spatial patterns between FWI and FDI for the two EWE. The spatial distribution of FDI, SC and IC had the best performance in capturing the locations of the occurrence of the two EWEs’. The outcomes allowed to conclude, that since fire danger depends on several factors a multi-index’s diagnosis is highly relevant, though calibration and scale adjustment are needed for PT. The implementation of a Multi-index’s Prediction System should be able to further enhance the ability of tracking and forecast unique EWE, since the shortcomings of some indices are compensated by the information retrieved by others as shown in this study. Overall, a new forecast system can help ensuring the development of appropriate spatial preparedness plans, proactive responses by the civil protection regarding firefighter’s management, suppression efforts to minimize the detrimental impacts of wildfires in Portugal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0052.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: weather-related SARS-CoV-2 virulence; specific enthalpy of atmospheric moist air; temperature and humidity effects on COVID-19 outbreak; correlating equation; COVID-19 spread prediction risk scale
Online: 5 October 2020 (08:10:08 CEST)
Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.
Subject: Social Sciences, Decision Sciences Keywords: innovative leadership; climate change; sustainable futures; ecosystems; well-being; food security; water resources; public health; sustainable practices; technologies; policies for climate change; mitigation; adaptation; innovation; complex challenges; temperature; extreme weather events; sea-level rise; biodiversity
Online: 7 October 2023 (09:47:40 CEST)
This article explores the intersection of innovative leadership and climate change, aiming to provide outstanding contributions to the existing body of knowledge in this field. The article identifies the critical role of innovative leadership in driving sustainable solutions and strategies for addressing climate change. It examines the defining characteristics and behaviors of innovative leaders and explores how their transformative leadership approaches can create a positive impact on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The article also highlights the importance of fostering innovation within organizations and societies to tackle the complex challenges posed by climate change. Through a comprehensive review of relevant literature and case studies, this article presents novel insights, theoretical frameworks, and practical implications for policymakers, organizations, and individuals involved in climate change leadership.