Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010-2018

Aleksandr Ianevski; Eva Zusinaite; Nastassia Shtaida; Hannumari Kallio-Kokko; Miia Valkonen; Anu Kantele; Kaidi Telling; Irja Lutsar; Pille Letjuka; Natalja Metelitsa; Valentyn Oksenych; Uga Dumpis; Astra Vitkauskiene; Kestutis Stašaitis; Christina Öhrmalm; Kåre Bondeson; Anders Bergqvist; Rebecca Cox; Tanel Tenson; Andres Merits; Denis Kainov

doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0136.v2

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Ianevski, A.; Zusinaite, E.; Shtaida, N.; Kallio-Kokko, H.; Valkonen, M.; Kantele, A.; Telling, K.; Lutsar, I.; Letjuka, P.; Metelitsa, N.; Oksenych, V.; Dumpis, U.; Vitkauskiene, A.; Stašaitis, K.; Öhrmalm, C.; Bondeson, K.; Bergqvist, A.; Cox, R.J.; Tenson, T.; Merits, A.; Kainov, D.E. Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010–2018. Viruses 2019, 11, 207. Ianevski, A.; Zusinaite, E.; Shtaida, N.; Kallio-Kokko, H.; Valkonen, M.; Kantele, A.; Telling, K.; Lutsar, I.; Letjuka, P.; Metelitsa, N.; Oksenych, V.; Dumpis, U.; Vitkauskiene, A.; Stašaitis, K.; Öhrmalm, C.; Bondeson, K.; Bergqvist, A.; Cox, R.J.; Tenson, T.; Merits, A.; Kainov, D.E. Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010–2018. Viruses 2019, 11, 207.

Abstract

With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010-2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and low UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in the Northern European countries. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in Northern Europe.

Keywords

Subject

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010-2018

Abstract

Keywords

Subject

Comments (0)