Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Correlation between Intense Solar Energetic Particle Fluxes and Atmospheric Weather Extremes

Version 1 : Received: 4 March 2019 / Approved: 6 March 2019 / Online: 6 March 2019 (11:01:50 CET)

How to cite: Anagnostopoulos, G.; Menesidou, S.A.; Vassiliadis, V.G.; Rigas, A. Correlation between Intense Solar Energetic Particle Fluxes and Atmospheric Weather Extremes. Preprints 2019, 2019030075 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201903.0075.v1). Anagnostopoulos, G.; Menesidou, S.A.; Vassiliadis, V.G.; Rigas, A. Correlation between Intense Solar Energetic Particle Fluxes and Atmospheric Weather Extremes. Preprints 2019, 2019030075 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201903.0075.v1).

Abstract

In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar flares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures TM in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase. ΔTM and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔTM (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of TM to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.

Subject Areas

extreme weather events; heat waves; sun-earth relationships; sun and weather; space weather and extreme atmospheric events; global atmospheric anomalies; SEP events and weather; SEP and NAO; gulf stream and heat waves

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