Graphs are largely used in computer science to model relations, or associations, among entities the compose complex systems. More recently, they found a broad field of application in bioinformatics and medical informatics supporting modelling, analysis of many systems. The applications span from representing interactions among molecules within cells, to model the functions of the brains. In order to support research, algorithms from graph theory that are able to extract knowledge from network should be coupled to efficient visualisation techniques. Although the importance of such topic, we retain that many challenges should be faced in the futures, such as automated pathway and network layout to better match biologists’ needs, the developing of a standard able to give more and better choices to represent nodes, edges finally, the developing of automated mechanism able to improve the network navigation methods that help users manage large and complex networks with the goal to improve the usability.

The study focuses on the application of R programming language towards marine geological research with a case study of Mariana Trench. Due to its logical and straightforward syntax, multi-functional standard libraries, R is especially attractive to the geologists for the scientific computing. Using R libraries, the unevenness of various factors affecting Mariana Trench geomorphic structure has been studied. These include sediment thickness, slope steepness, angle aspect, depth at the basement and magmatism of the nearby areas. Methods includes using following R libraries: {ggplot2} for regression analysis, Kernel density curves, compositional charts; {ggalt} for Dumbbell charts for data comparison by tectonic plates, ranking dot plots for correlation analysis; {vcd} for mosaic plots, silhouette plots for compositional similarities among the bathymetric profiles, association plots; {car} for ANOVA. Bathymetric GIS data processing was dome in QGIS and LaTeX. The innovativeness of the work consists in the multi-disciplinary approach combining GIS analysis and statistical methods of R which contributes towards studies of ocean trenches, aimed at geospatial analysis of big data.

Shape of supracondylar fracture of the humeral of pediatric patients is analysed with Procrustes method. XR–images of fractures are considered both in anterio-posterior (AP) view (66 images) and in a lateral (L) view (24 images). Applying Procrustes method for both views mean images are constructed and compared. Variability of shapes is quantified with a shape principal component analysis. Non-parametric tests (permutational and bootstrap) do not indicate statistical difference between Procrustes mean shapes in anterio-posterior and lateral projections. It is shown, however, that AP and L shapes of humeral fractures differ in their variability quantified by shape principal components.

In this study we sought to investigate the impact of urbanization, presence of concrete river bottom, and nutrient pollution on microbial communities along the L.A. River. Six molecular markers were evaluated for identification of bacteria, plants, fungi, fish, and invertebrates in 90 samples. PCA (principal components analysis) was used with PAM (partitioning around medoids) clustering to reveal community structure and an NB (Negative binomial) model in DESeq2 was used for differential abundance analysis. PCA and factor analysis exposed the main axes of variation but were sensitive to outliers. Differential abundance of Proteobacteria was associated with soft bottom sites, and there was an apparent balance in the abundance of organisms responsible for nitrogen cycling. Nitrogen cycling was explained by differential abundance of ammonia oxidizing archaea, the complete ammonia oxidizers Nitrospira sp., nitrate reducing bacteria Marmoricola sp., and nitrogen fixing bacteria Devosia sp. which were differentially abundant at soft-bottom sites (p adj < 0.002). In contrast, differential abundance of several Cyanobacteria and other anoxygenic phototrophs was associated with the concrete bottom sites, which suggested the accumulation of excess nitrogen. The soft bottom sites tended to be represented by differential abundance of aerobes, whereas the concrete-associated species tended to be alkaliphilic, saliniphilic, calciphilic, sulfate dependent, and anaerobic. In Glendale Narrows, downstream from multiple water reclamation plants, there were differential abundance of cyanobacteria and algae, however indicator species for low nutrient environments and ammonia-abundance were also present. There was differential abundance of ascomycetes associated with Arroyo Seco and a differential abundance of Scenedesmaceae green algae and cyanobacteria in Maywood, in the analysis which compared suburban with urban river communities. The proportion of Ascomycota to Basidiomycota within the LA River differed from the expected proportion based on published worldwide freshwater and river 18S data; the shift in community structure was most likely associated with the extremes of urbanization. This study indicates that extreme urbanization can result in overrepresentation of cyanobacterial species that could cause reductions in water quality and safety.

This paper introduces an application of R programming language for geostatistical data processing with a case study of the Mariana Trench, Pacific Ocean. The formation of the Mariana Trench, the deepest among all hadal oceanic depth trenches, is caused by complex and diverse geomorphic factors affecting its development. Mariana Trench crosses four tectonic plates: Mariana, Caroline, Pacific and Philippine. The impact of the geographic location and geological factors on its geomorphology has been studied by methods of statistical analysis and data visualization using R libraries. The methodology includes following steps. Firstly, vector thematic data were processed in QGIS: tectonics, bathymetry, geomorphology and geology. Secondly, 25 cross-section profiles were drawn across the trench. The length of each profile is 1000-km. The attribute information has been derived from each profile and stored in a table containing coordinates, depths and thematic information. Finally, this table was processed by methods of the statistical analysis on R. The programming codes and graphical results are presented. The results include geospatial comparative analysis and estimated effects of the data distribution by tectonic plates: slope angle, igneous volcanic areas and depths. The innovativeness of this paper consists in a cross-disciplinary approach combining GIS, statistical analysis and R programming.

The Independent Component Analysis (ICA) has been recently introduced as a reliable alternative to identify canonical scattering mechanisms within Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) images. This manuscript addresses two important aspects when applying such methods on real data, namely speckle filtering and statistical classification with ICA. A novel PolSAR data processing framework is introduced by adjusting the Lee's sigma filter to the particular nature of the Touzi's polarimetric decomposition. In its current form, it allows the use of the ICA mixing matrix in the derived speckle filter. An extension of the Fromont at al. iterative segmentation is introduced, equally. This proposed framework is tested using P band airborne PolSAR data acquired for the ESA campaign TropiSAR campaign.

Sequence alignment and comparison through pairwise, multiple, global and local techniques are the main principles that underpin comparative genomics. However, most of the algorithms used are alignment-based which imposed some limitations on their use and application. In an attempt to provide an alignment-free alternative approaches, a methodology of comparative optinalysis and statistical mirroring was used and adopted to provide a suitable alternative for multiple genomic sequence comparison. In this article, methods comparison with MUSCLE, MUFFT, Clustal Omega, and T-Coffee was designed to assess the suitability and statistical power of statistical mirroring as an alternative method for multiple genomic sequences comparison using different sets of logically generated biological sequence datasets with different problems and computational complications. The results of the comparisons validate that statistical mirroring is a suitable alignment-free alternative approach for multiple genomic sequence comparison. The applied method (statistical mirroring) distinguishes itself over MUSCLE, MUFFT, Clustal Omega, and T-Coffee in specificity to a position-specific changes, specificity to a base-specific changes, cladogram and phylogenetic linearity, alignment independency, computational simplicity, and limit of input capacity.

Black ginseng is a type of processed ginseng that is traditionally used as herbal medicine in East Asian countries. It is prepared from fresh, white, or red ginseng by undergoing a process of steaming and drying nine times. However, the chemical differentiation of black ginseng with different processing levels is not well understood. The aim of this study is to propose a new method for discriminating and quantifying black ginseng. Six ginsenosides from black ginseng were accurately quantified, and based on this, the black ginseng samples were divided into uncompleted and completed black ginseng. Ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time of flight/mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF/MS) combined with a multivariate statistical analysis strategy was then employed to differentiate the two groups. A total of 141 ions were selected as analytical markers of black ginseng, with 45 of these markers being annotated by matching precise m/z and MS/MS data from prior studies.

Optinalysis, as a method of symmetry detection, is a new advanced computational algorithm that intrametrically (within elements) or intermetrically (between elements) computes and compares two or more multivariate sequences in an unclustered or clustered manner as a mirror-like reflection of each other (optics-like manner), hence the name is driven. Optinalysis is based by the principles of reflection and moment about a symmetrical line which detects symmetry that reflects a similarity measurement. Optinalysis is suitable for quantitative and qualitative data types, with or without replications, provided it conform the algorithmic requirements there provided. Optinalysis can be organized for geometrical, geostatistical and statistical analysis in one-way, two-way, or three-way approach. A simulation comparisons shows that Optinalysis is a simple alternative approach of multivariate analysis of sociometric, demographic, socio-demographic, psychometric, ecological, experimental, genomic, nanoparticle and shape morphometric data. Optinalysis of these data matrix shows very similar results or conclusions with some multivariate analysis such as skewness measure, one-way ANOVA, paired t-test, one sample t-test, Tukey’s multiple comparisons, BLAST sequence algorithmic analysis (percentages of identity, similarity, gabs, and positives, and the Needleman-Wunsch score), and Riemannian distance.

We discuss the influence played by different statistical models in the prediction of porosity and litho-fluid facies from logged and post-stack inverted acoustic impedance (Ip) values. We compare the inversion and classification results obtained under three different a-priori statistical assumptions: an analytical Gaussian distribution, an analytical Gaussian-mixture model and a non-parametric mixture distribution. The first model assumes Gaussian distributed porosity and Ip values, thus neglecting their facies-dependent behaviour caused by different lithologic and saturation conditions. Differently, the other two statistical models relate each component of the mixture to a specific litho-fluid facies, so that the facies-dependency of porosity and Ip values is taken into account. Blind well tests are used to validate the final predictions, whereas the analysis of the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) solutions, the coverage ratio and the contingency analysis tools are used to quantitatively compare the inversion outcomes. This work points out that the correct choice of the statistical petrophysical model could be crucial in reservoir characterization studies. Indeed, for the investigated zone it turns out that the simple Gaussian model constitutes an oversimplified assumption, while the two mixture models provide more accurate results, although the non-parametric one yields slightly superior predictions with respect to the Gaussian-mixture assumption.

Maximally similar sets (MSS) are sets of elements that share a neighborhood in a high-dimensional space defined by symmetric, reflexive similarity relation. Each element of the universe is employed as the kernel of a neighborhood of a given size (number of members), and elements are added to the neighborhood in order of similarity to the current members of the set until the desired neighborhood size is achieved. The set of neighborhoods is then reduced to the set of unique maximally similar sets by eliminating all sets that are permutations of an existing set. Subsequently, the within-MSS variability of attributes associated with the elements is compared to random sets of the same size to estimate the probability of obtaining variability as low as observed. Individual attributes can be compared for effect size by the ratio of within-MSS variability to random set variability, correcting for statistical power as necessary. The analyses performed identify constraints, as opposed to determinants, in the triangular distribution of pair-wise element similarity. In the example given here, the variability in spring temperature, summer temperature, and growing degree days of forest vegetation samples shows the greatest constraint on forest composition of a large set of candidate environmental variables

Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of droughts with the hydrology in alpine systems being largely determined by snow dynamics. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts taking into account the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). We will also analyse the correlation between these types of droughts. We have generated ensembles of local climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCMs) representative of potential future conditions. We have considered several sources of uncertainty: different historical climate databases, simulations obtained with several RCMs, and some statistical downscaling techniques. We then used a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to generate multiple climatic series preserving the characteristics of the ensemble scenario. These were simulated within a cellular automata (CA) model to generate multiple SCA future series. They were used to calculate multiple series of meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and a novel hydrological drought index (Standardized Snow Cover Index (SSCI)). A linear correlation analysis was applied to both types of drought to analyse how they propagate and the time delay between them. We applied the proposed methodology to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain) where we estimated a general increase in meteorological and hydrological drought magnitude and duration for the horizon 2071-2100 under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The SCA droughts also revealed a significant increase in drought intensity. The meteorological drought propagation to SCA droughts is reflected in an immediate or short time (1 month), obtaining significant correlations in lower accumulation periods of drought indices (3 and 6 months). This will allow us to obtain information about meteorological drought from SCA deficits and vice versa.

Nickel superalloys occupy a reasonably broad niche in the industry. One of this group's most common and well-known alloys is Inconel 718. Parts from Inconel 718 are used in aerospace, energy, automotive, and some other vital industries, which creates a demand for research and improvement of the machining conditions of this alloy. This article is devoted to the systematization and generalization of the accumulated experience of machining of Inconel 718 at turning operation. The research methodology is based on the Pareto distribution. In the study, more than 50 articles devoted to turning Inconel 718 were analyzed. The tool materials, methods, and types of coating used in turning Inconel 718 were analyzed. Finite element method modeling of processing processes has been considered. The trends in the selection of cutting parameters and the geometry of the cutting tool and finite element method modeling of processing processes have been considered. Lacuna for promising future research was formulated.

The statistical properties of a good estimator include robustness, unbiasedness, efficiency, and consistency. However, the commonly used estimators of dispersion have lack or are weak in one or more of these properties. In this paper, I proposed statistical mirroring as a good alternative estimator of dispersion around defined location estimates or points. In the main part of the paper, attention is restricted to Gaussian distribution and only estimators of dispersion around the mean that functionalize with all the observations of a dataset were considered at this time. The different estimators were compared with the proposed estimators in terms of alternativeness, scale and sample size robustness, outlier biasedness, and efficiency. Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate artificial datasets for application. The proposed estimators (of statistical meanic mirroring) turn out to be suitable alternative estimators of dispersion that is less biased (more resistant) to contaminations, robust to scale and sample size, and more efficient to a random distribution of variable than the standard deviation, variance, and coefficient of variation. However, statistical meanic mirroring is not suitable with a mean (of a normal distribution) close to zero, and on a scale below ratio level.

The purposes of this study are to analyze the groundwater quality of Ogallala Aquifer and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the southern High Plains region of the Permian Basin, Texas. Levels of chloride, fluoride, nitrate, pH, selenium, and total dissolved solids (TDS) were analyzed through the years 1990-2016. A total of 133 wells were collected from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) which is an open database by the US government. Statistical analysis was utilized to evaluate the groundwater quality and propose trends. The average levels of the contaminants were compared to their respective Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Potential human health risks that each contaminant possesses were described. Possible sources of each contaminant were discussed with oil/gas activities, agricultural practices, and other human actions impact its conditions. This research provides important information for groundwater quality of Ogallala aquifer and contributes on understanding the response to development in the Permian Basin, Texas.

In this study, experimental work was carried out on reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) plates. This study aims to examine the effect of the reinforcement ratio on the flexural behavior of these beams and propose a new model for predicting the debonding moment. Six RC beams consisting of three control beams and three beams strengthened with CFRP plates were tested. The beams were simply supported and loaded with four-point bending. The test variable was the tensile reinforcement ratio (1%, 1.5%, and 2.5%). Analytical prediction using the fiber element method was also carried out to obtain the complete theoretical response of the beam due to flexural loads. The test results show that the reinforcement ratio affected the bending performance of RC beams with CFRP plates. Following this, the experimental data from 60 beam test results from published literature and this study were analyzed. From these data, it was found that the ratio of tensile reinforcement, the ratio of modulus of elasticity of concrete, the modulus of elasticity of the plate, and plate thickness all affect the value of debonding moment. A parametric study using fiber element and two-dimensional finite element method was also carried out to confirm the effect of these parameters on debonding failure. These parameters were then used to develop an equation to predict the debonding moment of RC beams strengthened with CFRP plates using simple statistical analysis. This analysis resulted in a simple model for predicting the debonding moment. Then the model is entered into a computer program, and the complete response of the cross-section due to debonding failure can be obtained.

The paper presents the identification and classification of steel cord failures in the conveyor belt core based on an analysis of a two-dimensional image of magnetic field changes recorded using the Diagbelt system around scanned failures in the test belt. The obtained set of identified changes in images obtained for numerous devices parameters settings were the base for statistical analysis. It makes it possible to determine the Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient between the parameters being changed and the image of the failures. In the second stage of the research, artificial intelligence methods were applied to construct a multilayer neural network (MLP) and to teach its appropriate identification of damage. In both methods were used the same data sets, which made it possible to compare methods.

We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.

Accurate prediction of the self-propulsion performance is one of the most important factors for energy-efficient design of a ship. In general, the hydrodynamic performance of a full-scale ship could be achieved by model-scale simulation or towing tank test with extrapolations. With the development of CFD methods and computing power, directly predict ship performance with full-scale CFD is an important approach. In this article, a numerical study on the full-scale self-propulsion performance with propeller operating behind ship at model- and full-scale is presented. The study includes numerical simulations using RANS method with double-model and VOF model respectively and scale effect analysis based on overall performance, local flow fields and detailed vortex identification. Verification study on grid convergence is also performed for full-scale simulation with global and local mesh refinements. And a series of sea trail tests were performed to collect reliable data for the validation of CFD predictions. The analysis of scale effect on hull-propeller interaction shows that the difference on hull boundary layer and flow separation is the main source of scale effect on ship wake. And the results of the fluctuations of propeller thrust and torque along with circulation distribution and local flow field show that propeller’s loading is significantly higher for model-scale ship. It is suggested that the difference on vortex evolution and interaction is more pronounced and have larger effects on ship’s powering performance at model-scale than full-scale according to the simulation results. From the study on self-propulsion prediction, it could be concluded that the simplification on free surface treatment does not only affect the wave-making resistance for bare hull but also the propeller performance and propeller induced ship resistance which can produced up to 5% uncertainty to the power prediction. Roughness is another important factor in full-scale simulation because it has up to approximately 7% effect on the delivery power. As a result of validation study, the numerical simulations of full-scale ship self-propulsion shows good agreement with the sea trail data especially for cases that have considered both roughness and free surface effects. This result will largely enhance our confidence to apply full-scale simulation in the prediction of ship’s self-propulsion performance in the future ship designs.

In this paper, we introduce the notions of nearly Sasakian and nearly Kähler statistical structures with a non-trivial example. The conditions for a real hypersurface in a nearly Kähler statistical manifold to admit a nearly Sasakian statistical structure are given. We also study Invariant and anti-invariant statistical submanifolds of nearly Sasakian statistical manifolds. At the end, some conditions under which such a submanifold of a nearly Sasakian statistical manifold is itself a nearly Sasakian statistical manifold are given.

Musculoskeletal models (MSKMs) are used to estimate the muscle and joint forces involved in human locomotion, often associated with the onset of degenerative musculoskeletal pathologies (e.g. osteoarthritis). Subject-specific MSKMs offer more accurate predictions than their scaled-generic counterparts. This accuracy is achieved through time-consuming personalisation of models and manual tuning procedures that suffers from potential repeatability errors, hence limiting the wider application of this modelling approach. In this work we have developed a methodology for identifying and ranking the muscles that are more important to the determination of the joint forces, thus producing reduced but still accurate representation of the musculoskeletal system in shorter timeframes. The methodology hinges on Sobol's sensitivity analysis (SSA) for ranking the muscle importance. The thousands of data points required for SSA are generated using Gaussian Process emulators, a Bayesian technique to infer the input-output relationship between nonlinear models from a limited number of observations. Results show that there is a pool of muscles whose personalisation has little effects on the model predictions. Furthermore, joint forces in subject generic and subject generic models are influenced by different set of muscles, suggesting the existence of a model specific component of the sensitivity analysis.

We examine how observations can be used to evaluate an air quality analysis by verifying against passive observations (i.e. cross-validation) that are not used to create the analysis and we compare these verifications to those made against the same set of (active) observations that were used to generate the analysis. The results show that both active and passive observations can be used to evaluate of first moment metrics (e.g. bias) but only passive observations are useful to evaluate second moment metrics such as variance of observed-minus-analysis and correlation between observations and analysis. We derive a set of diagnostics based on passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and we show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on any statistical optimality assumption. This diagnostic is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the analysis error using several different methods. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth Lonnberg, Desroziers, a diagnostic we introduce, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that as long as the analysis is optimal, all estimates agrees within a certain error margin. The analysis error variance at passive observation sites is also obtained.

We attempt to re-express Nernst law in terms of a suitable information measure (IM). This is done on the basis of adapting the idea of purity to a thermal Gibbs environment, which yields what we might call a ``purity'' (and symbolize it by the symbol $D$). We further apply the properly generalization of this $D$-IM to a classical scenario. This generalization turns our to have interesting consequences, when used in conjunction with the classical Shannon entropy $S$. These consequences are related to Nernst law.

Academic failure, low attendance, financial difficulties, and mental illness are some of the major reasons most students drop out of high schools. We investigated how high school dropout risk is affected by socioeconomic, demographic, and institutional characteristics. Therefore, research design is composed of a literature review, Questionnaire surveys by interviewing each student. Besides, the analysis and statistical modelling, the Logistic Regression method was used. The results show that academic performance, job, lack of interest and low learning ability were the significant individual characteristics that affect the high school dropout. Moreover, parental characteristics, including financial condition, lack of awareness, and education, are significant factors associated with high school dropout rates. Some other related factors, such as adaptability and influence of the peer groups, abandoning school by siblings, and extra responsibility at home and a joint family system, are also some notable factors that significantly affect the dropout rate in schools Malakand District of KP province. This research study delivered the results that contribute to the literature in education to identify different factors like student's own, parental, institutional, and household characteristics, which affect a student being a dropout from high school in Malakand district Pakistan.

Breast cancer is the second cause of fatality among all cancers for women. Automatic classification of breast cancer lesions in mammograms is a challenging task due to the irregularity and complexity of the location, size, shape, and texture of these lesions. The intensity dissimilarity has been found between breast cancer tissues and normal tissues, when a multi-spectral anatomical mammographic screening scans have been done. In this work, two approaches have been evaluated to classify the breast tumor lesions. The first one is through Gabor wavelet features and the second one is Statistical features. Subsequently, support vector machine, Multilayer Perceptron and KNN classifiers have been used with computer based method for breast tumor classification.

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been subject of numerous studies due to its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are suitably rescaled. In this work we aim to find out if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5 respectively and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.

This paper establishes methods that quantify the structure of statistical interactions within a given data set using the characterization of information theory in cohomology by finite methods, and provides their expression in terms of statistical physic and machine learning. Following [1–3], we show directly that k multivariate mutual-informations (I_k) are k-coboundaries. The k-cocycles are given by I_k = 0, which generalize statistical independence to arbitrary dimension k. The topological approach allows to investigate Shannon’s information in the multivariate case without the assumptions of independent identically distributed variables. We develop the computationally tractable subcase of simplicial information cohomology represented by entropy H_k and information I_k landscapes. The I₁ component defines a self-internal energy functional U_k, and (−1)^k I_k,k≥2 components define the contribution to a free energy functional G_k of the k-body interactions. The set of information paths in simplicial structures is in bijection with the symmetric group and random processes, provides a topological expression of the 2nd law and points toward a discrete Noether theorem (1st law). The local minima of free-energy, related to conditional information negativity and the non-Shannonian cone of Yeung [4], characterize a minimum free energy complex. This complex formalizes the minimum free-energy principle in topology, provides a definition of a complex system, and characterizes a multiplicity of local minima that quantifies the diversity observed in biology. Finite data size effects and estimation bias severely constrain the effective computation of the information topology on data, and we provide simple statistical tests for the undersampling bias and for the k-dependences following [5]. We give an example of application of these methods to genetic expression and cell-type classification. The maximal positive I_k identifies the variables that co-vary the most in the population, whereas the minimal negative I_k identifies clusters and the variables that differentiate-segregate the most. The methods unravel biologically relevant I₁₀ with a sample size of 41. It establishes generic methods to quantify the epigenetic information storage and a unified epigenetic unsupervised learning formalism.

This paper presents work done as part of a transformation effort towards a greener and more sustainable Aluminium manufacturing plant. The effort includes reducing the carbon footprint by minimising waste and increasing operational efficiency. The contribution of this work includes the reduction of waste through the implementation of autonomous, real-time quality measurement and classification at an Aluminium casthouse. Data is collected from the MV20/20 which uses ultrasound pulses to detect molten Aluminium inclusions, which degrade the quality of the metal and cause subsequent metal waste. The sensor measures cleanliness, inclusion counts and distributions from 20 - 160 microns. The contribution of this work is in the development of business analytics to implement condition-based monitoring through anomaly detection, and to classify inclusion types for samples that failed. For anomaly detection, multivariate K-Means and DBSCAN algorithms are compared as they have been proven to work in a wide range of datasets. For classification, a two-stage classifier is implemented. The first stage classifies the success or failure of the sample, while the second stage classifies the inclusion responsible for the failed sample. The algorithms considered include logistic regression, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function network. The multi-layer perceptron offers the best performance using k-fold cross-validation, and is further tuned using grid search to explore the possibility of an even better performance. The results reveal that the model has achieved a global maximum in performance. Recommendations include the integration of additional sensor systems and the improvements in quality assurance practices.

The utilization for water resource has been of great concern to human life. To assess the natural water system in Kangding County, the integrated methods of hydrochemcial analysis, multivariate statistics and geochemical modelling were conducted on surface water, groundwater and thermal water samples. Surface water and groundwater were dominated by Ca-HCO₃ type, while thermal water belonged to Ca-HCO₃ and Na-Cl type. The analyzing results concluded the driving factors that affect hydrochemical components. Following the results of the combined assessments, hydrochemcial process was controlled by the dissolution of carbonate and silicate minerals with slight influence from anthropogenic activity. The mixing model of groundwater and thermal water was calculated using silica-enthalpy method, yielding cold-water fraction of 0.56-0.79 and estimated reservoir temperature of 130-199 ^oC, respectively. δD and δ¹⁸O isotopes suggested surface water, groundwater and thermal springs were of meteoric origin. Thermal water should have deep circulation through the Xianshuihe fault zone, while groundwater flows through secondary fractures where it recharges with thermal water. Those analytical results were used to construct a hydrological conceptual model, providing a better understanding of the natural water system in Kangding County.

We investigate the physics of a medium-size quantum particle' gases, of the order of hundreds or thousands of fermions/bosons (far below the thermodynamic limit $N \, \rightarrow \, 10^{24}$). Appeal to microcanonical ensemble becomes then unavoidable. The so-called statistical complexity is our protagonist. Interesting facts are uncovered, both for fermions and bosons, yielded by statistical quantifiers.

NS-3 is one of the most used Network Simulators because it includes different modules, applications and protocols to simulate a wide range of network. Since new proposals usually involve a large number of simulations, a procedure to automatize the simulation process and extract statistics is very useful. "Statistical Framework" (SF) is an important module of NS-3 because it fulfills this need. SF allows us to collect simulation data and obtain statistical reports for NS-3. In this report, we present a detailed description of statistical framework module and two useful examples of its configuration.

The statistical bundle is the set of couples $(Q,W)$ of a probability density Q and a random variable W such that $\mathbb{E}$_Q [W] = 0. On a finite state space, we assume Q to be a probability density with respect to the uniform probability and give an affine atlas of charts such that the resulting manifold is a model for Information Geometry. Velocity and accelleration of a one-dimensional statistical model are computed in this set up. The Euler-Lagrange equations are derived from the Lagrange action integral. An example of Lagrangian using minus the entropy as potential energy is briefly discussed.

Electrification coverage in Sarawak is the lowest at 78.74%, compared to Peninsular Malaysia at 99.62% and Sabah at 82.51%. Kapit, Sarawak with its 88.4% populations located in rural areas and mostly situated along the main riverbanks has great potential to generate electrical energy by hydrokinetic system. Yearly water velocity data is the most significant parameter to perform hydrokinetic analysis study. Nevertheless, the data retrieved from local river databases are inadequate for river energy analysis, thus hindering its progression. Instead, flow rates and rainfall data had been utilised to estimate the water velocity data. This signifies no estimation of water velocity in an unregulated river by using water level data had been made. Therefore, a novel technique of estimating the daily average water velocity data in unregulated rivers is proposed. The modelling of regression equation for water velocity estimation was performed and two regression model equations were generated to estimate both water level and water velocity on-site and proven to be valid as the coefficient of determination values had been R² = 87.4% and R²=87.9%, respectively. The combination of both regression model equations can be used to estimate long-term time series water velocity data for type-C unregulated river in remote areas.

This paper describes a memory model with 3 levels of information. The lower-level stores source data, is Markov-like and unweighted. Then a middle-level ontology is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information, by transposing from an ensemble to a hierarchy at each level. The ontology is useful for search processes and the aggregating process transposes the information from horizontal set-based sequences to more vertical typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be sent by the calling module. This therefore allows different weight sets to be imposed on the same linking structure. The success of the ontology typing is open to interpretation, but the author would suggest that when clustering text, the result was types based more on use and context, for example, 'linking' with 'structure' or 'provide' with 'web,' for a document describing distributed service-based networks. This allows the system to economise over symbol use, where links to related symbols will be clustered together. The author then conjectures that a third memory substrate would be more neural in nature and would include functions or operations to be performed on the data, along with related memory information.

The paper addresses the problem of a statistically significant numerical evaluation of the biomechanics of respiration using the motion of the ribcage through the identification of the kinematics of the sixth rib. We report the results of an experimental campaign conducted using a RESPIRholter device prototype for efficient, comfortable, and numerical monitoring on two groups of volunteers, namely with healthy people and with chest operated patients. The results are reported in terms of statistical processing of the data extracted from the monitoring which are represented in plots of acquired motion characteristics with movement graphs in terms of angles and accelerations. This experimental campaign can be considered a first result for the construction of a database useful for a reference of diagnostics as reported by the discussed example case study.

Using a database of 378 hail days between 20981 and 2020, the climatic characteristics of 23 convective parameters from sounding data and ERA5 data were statistically analyzed. The goal of this work is to evaluate the usefulness and representativeness of convective parameters derived from sounding data and reanalysis data for the operational forecast of the hail phenomenon. As a result, average values from 12:00 UTC were 433J / Kg for CAPE in the case of data from ERA5 and 505 J/kg from rawinsonde respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficients matrix between the values of the parameters indicates high correlations between the parameters calculated based on the parcel theory, the humidity indices, and the complex indices. The probability for large hail maximizes with high low level and boundary layer moisture, high CAPE, and a high lifted condensation level height.

The development of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs) unveiled the sky in the teraelectronvolt regime, initiating the so-called “TeV revolution” at the beginning of the new millennium. This revolution was also facilitated by the implementation and adaptation of statistical tools for analyzing the shower images collected by these telescopes and inferring the properties of the astrophysical sources that produce such events. The image reconstruction techniques, the background discrimination and the signal-detection analyses are just a few of the pioneering studies applied in the last decades in the analysis of IACTs data. This (succinct) review has the intent of summarizing the most common statistical tools that are used for analyzing data collected with IACTs, focusing on their application in the full analysis chain, giving references to the past literature for a deepened examination.

The earlier analytical analysis (part A) of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemics model for a constant ratio k of infection to recovery rates is extended here to the semi-time case which is particularly appropriate for modeling the temporal evolution of later (than the first) pandemic waves when a greater population fraction from the first wave has been infected. In the semi-time case the SIR model does not describe the quantities in the past; instead they only hold for times later than the initial time t=0 of the newly occurring wave. Simple exact and approximative expressions are derived for the final and maximum values of the infected, susceptible and revovered/removed population fractions as well the daily rate and cumulative number of new infections. It is demonstrated that two types of temporal evolution of the daily rate of new infections j(tau) occur depending on the values of k and the initial value of the infected fraction I(0)=eta: in the decay case for k > 1-2 eta the daily rate monotonically decreases at all positive times from its initial maximum value j(0)=eta (1-eta). Alternatively, in the peak case for k<1-2 eta the daily rate attains a maximum at a finite positive time. By comparing the approximated analytical solutions for j(tau) and J(tau) with the exact ones obtained by numerical integration, it is shown that the analytical approximations are accurate within at most only 2.5 percent. It is found that the initial fraction of infected persons sensitively influences the late time dependence of the epidemics, the maximum daily rate and its peak time. Such dependencies do not exist in the earlier investigated all-time case.

We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (hereinafter Covid-19) epidemics, which is particularly invasive in Italy. We show that the high apparent mortality (or Case Fatality Ratio, CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of infected cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the mortality of Covid-19, we use the most recent estimates of the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) of epidemic, based on the minimum observed CFR, and furthermore analyse data obtained from the ship Diamond Princess, a good representation of a ‘laboratory’ case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses we derive more realistic estimates of the real extension of the infection, as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then point out from the various explanations proposed, the dominant factors causing such an abnormal seriousness of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the deceased data, the only ones estimated to be reliable enough, to predict the total number of infected people and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could stop.

The launch of the RadioAstron space radio telescope provides a unique opportunity to study the extreme high brightness temperature of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) with unprecedented long baselines of up to 28 Earth diameters. A coordinated ground-based flux density monitoring of RadioAstron targets is essential to determine the effect of interstellar scintillation (ISS) on the Space Very Long Baseline Interferometry (SVLBI) visibilities. Moreover, a combination/comparison of scintillation with SVLBI observations is expected to reveal the relative influence of source brightness temperature, compactness, and properties of the interstellar medium on the observed variability at centimeter wavelengths. In 2014 we started a RadioAstron target triggered flux monitoring with the Effelsberg 100-m radio telescope in support of this SVLBI mission. A total of 112 targets were observed during the five-session monitoring performed so far. In this paper we present a statistical study on the short-term flux density variability of the sample, which is focused on the variability characteristics and derived physical properties of the observed sources.

In this paper, we study the black hole solution of self-similar gravitational collapse in the Einstein-axion-dilaton system for the elliptic class in four dimensions. The solution is invariant under space-time dilation, which is combined with internal SL(2,R) transformations. Due to the complex and highly nonlinear pattern of the equations of motion in the physics of black holes, researchers typically have to use various numerical techniques to make the equations tractable to estimate the parameters and the critical solutions. To this end, they have to ignore the numerical measurement errors in estimating the parameters. To our knowledge, for the first time in the literature on axion-dilation systems, we propose to estimate the critical collapse functions in a Bayesian framework. We develop a novel methodology to translate the modelling of the complexity of the elliptic black hole to a sampling problem using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with stacked neural networks. Unlike methods in the literature, this probabilistic approach enables us not only to recover the available deterministic solution but also to explore possibly all physically distinguishable self-similar solutions that may occur due to numerical measurement errors.

Recently, 3D printing techniques gained much attention in solid dosage form production. Even though the methods are increasingly studied, there are still many challenges in establishing an accurate content of active ingredients in the final products. In the present study, new experimental design techniques and statistical software were developed to identify and optimize a formula to predict the mass of the tablet to be 3D printed before it actually is. The first step was to develop a virtual 3D object in the FreeCad Software, then, using a CURA slicer software, the G-code Format was obtained. The tablets were printed using a Cartesian 3D printer based on the generated data. Finally, adapting the object sequencing mode, a predicted drug mass value was obtained. As expected, the oblong tablet's scaling directly influences its mass. The software generates a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84, confirming the directly proportional relationship between scaling and tablet weight. However, the r values progressively decreased, indicating a poor correlation between tablet weight and other factors: infill density percent (r = 0.403) and wall thickness (r = 0.185). After repeating the 3D printing with the values ​​suggested by the software, tablets with a practical value of 1066 mg were obtained. Considering that the confidence interval calculated is [834.95—1165.05] and the experimental value is 1066 mg, it can be certified that the proposed model is valid.

Monitored infection and vaccination rates during past past Corona waves are used to infer a posteriori two key parameter of the SIRV-epidemic model, namely the real time variation of the (i) ratio of recovery to infection rate and (ii) ratio of vaccination to infection rate. We demonstrate that using the classical SIR model the ratio between recovery and infection rates tends to overestimate the true ratio, that is of relevance in predicting the dynamics of an epidemics in the presence of vaccinations.

Monitored differential infection rates of past Corona waves are used to infer, a posteriori, the real time variation of the ratio of recovery to infection rate as key parameter of the SIR-epidemic model. From monitored Corona waves in five different countries it is found that this ratio exhibits a linear increase at early times below the first maximum of the differential infection rate before the ratios approach a nearly constant value close to unity at the time of the first maximum with small amplitude oscillations at later times. The observed time dependencies at early times and at times near the first maximum agree favorably well with the behavior of the calculated ratio for the Gaussian temporal evolution of the rate of new infections, although the predicted linear increase of the Gauss ratio at late times is not observed.

AbstractPurpose: This study aimed to perform a psychometric evaluation of the preliminary preterm birth risk assessment scale (PBRAS-K) of 32-item. Method(s): There were 299 subjects, 167 in the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) group and 132 in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) group, who delivered before 37⁺⁰ weeks after having preterm symptoms and were admitted to high-risk pregnancy maternal-fetal intensive care units (MFICU). After an item reduction process in EFA, the psychometric property scales were assessed using SPSS 26, and CFA was accomplished using AMOS 27. Results: The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure (KMO) and Bartlett’s χ² test of sphericity confirmed the adequacy of the sample for factor analysis (KMO = .81 (> .80), χ² = 1841.38, p < .001). The final version of the PBRAS-K was comprised of 23 items within seven dimensions. Factor analysis identified items explaining 65.9% of the total variance. The PBRAS-K had a mean score of 35.58 (±10.35) and showed a high internal consistency and satisfactory reliability with a Cronbach’s alpha of .85. The PBRAS-K had a low correlation with risk scoring of preterm delivery (RPD) for discriminant validity (r = .45, p < .001), a positive, high correlation with the Somatic Awareness Scale with Spontaneous Preterm Labor (SPL-SAS) for criterion validity (r = .65, p < .001), and with pregnant stress for convergent validity (r = .57, p < .001). RPD and SPL-SAS were moderately correlated (r = .53, p < .001). Conclusion(s): The PBRAS-23-K is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing pregnant women’s risk of preterm birth. Clinical nurses are encouraged to apply and obtain information for effective interventions in MFICU. This scale has meaningful results and reflects the voices of women who had a preterm birth. The scale should be evaluated for standardization and cut-off scores using larger subject sizes in the future.

In this paper we investigate the geometric structure and control of exponential families depending on additional parameters, called external parameters. These generalized exponential families emerges naturally when one applies the maximum entropy formalism to derive the equilibrium statistical mechanics framework. We study the associated statistical model, compute the Fisher metric and introduce a natural fibration of the parameter space over the external parameter space. The Fisher Riemannian metric allows to endow this fibration with an Ehresmann connection and to study the geometry and control of these statistical models. As an example, we show that horizontal lift of paths in the external parameter space corresponds to an isentropic evolution of the system. We apply the theory to the example of a ideal gas in a rotating rigid container. Most of the results are expressed in local coordinates; in the appendices we hint at possible global extensions of the theory.

With the now available vaccination against Covid-19 it is quantitatively explored how vaccination campaigns influence the mathematical modeling of epidemics. The standard susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic model is extended to the fourth compartment V of vaccinated persons and the vaccination rate v(t) that regulates the relation between susceptible and vaccinated persons. The vaccination rate v(t) competes with the infection (a(t)) and recovery (\mu(t)) rates in determining the time evolution of epidemics. In order for a pandemic outburst with rising rates of new infections it is required that k+b<1-2\eta, where k=\mu_0/a_0 and b=v_0/a_0 denote the initial ratios of the three rates, respectively, and \eta << 1 is the initial fraction of infected persons. Exact analytical inverse solutions t(Q) for all relevant quantities Q=[S,I,R,V] of the resulting SIRV-model in terms of Lambert functions are derived for the semi-time case with time-independent ratios k and b between the recovery and vaccination rates to the infection rate, respectively. These inverse solutions can be approximated with high accuracy yielding the explicit time-dependences Q(t) by inverting the Lambert functions. The values of the three parameters k, b and \eta completely determine the reduced time evolution the SIRV-quantities Q(\tau). The influence of vaccinations on the total cumulative number and the maximum rate of new infections in different countries is calculated by comparing with monitored real time Covid-19 data. The reduction in the final cumulative fraction of infected persons and in the maximum daily rate of new infections is quantitatively determined by using the actual pandemic parameters in different countries. Moreover, a new criterion is developed that decides on the occurrence of future Covid-19 waves in these countries. Apart from Israel this can happen in all countries considered.

This paper proposes a forecast-centric adaptive learning model that engages with the past studies on the order book and high-frequency data, with applications to hypothesis testing. In line with the past literature, we produce brackets of summaries of statistics from the high-frequency bid and ask data in the CSI 300 Index Futures market and aim to forecast the one-step-ahead prices. Traditional time series issues, e.g. ARIMA order selection, stationarity, together with potential financial applications are covered in the exploratory data analysis, which pave paths to the adaptive learning model. By designing and running the learning model, we found it to perform well compared to the top fixed models, and some could improve the forecasting accuracy by being more stable and resilient to non-stationarity. Applications to hypothesis testing are shown with a rolling window, and further potential applications to finance and statistics are outlined.

We start out by deriving simple analytic expressions for all measurable amounts of cases and fatalities during a pandemic evolution exhibiting multiple waves, described by the semi-time SIR model. The approximant shares all relevant features with the exact solution, including time and position of the peak of daily new infections, as well as the asymptotic behaviors at small and large times. We derive exact analytic expressions for the early doubling time, late half decay time, and a half-early peak law, characterizing the dynamical evolution. We show, in particular, how the asymmetry of the first epidemic wave and its exponential tails are affected by the initial conditions; a feature that has no analogue in the all-time SIR model. We apply the approach to available data from different continents. Our analysis reveals that the immunity is very strongly increasing during the 2nd wave, while it was still at a very moderate level of a few percent in several countries at the end of the first wave. The wave-specific SIR parameters describing the infection and recovery rates we find to behave in a similar fashion, while their ratio k was decreasing only by a about 5% for most countries. Still, an apparently moderate change of k can have significant consequences for the relevant numbers like the final amount of infected or deceased population. As we show, the probability for an additional wave is however low in several countries due to the fraction of immune inhabitants at the end of the 2nd wave, irrespective the currently ongoing vaccination efforts. We compare with alternate approaches.

Currently, natural philosophy (Physics) lacks the most fundamental model and a complete set of self-consistent explanations. This article attempts to address several issues to fill in the gaps. Starting from the most basic philosophical paradoxes, I deduce a physical model (the natural philosophical outlook) to describe the laws governing the operation of the universe. Based on this model, a mathematical model is established to describe the generalized diffusion behavior of a moving particle swarm, and its simple verification is carried out. In this article, the gravitational force and relativistic effects are interpreted for the first time as a statistical effect of randomly moving particles. Thus, the gravitational force and special relativistic effects are integrated into a single equation (achieved by selecting an initial wave function with a specific norm when solving it), and the cause of stable particle formation is also revealed. The derived equation and the method of acquiring the initial wave function are fully self-consistent with the hypotheses stated in the physical model, thereby also proving the reliability of the physical model to some extent. Some of these ideas may have potential value as a basis for understanding the essence of quantum mechanics, relativity and superstring theory, as well as for gaining a further understanding of nature and the manufacture of quantum computers.

The concept of out-of-time-ordered correlation (OTOC) function is treated as a very strong theoretical probe of quantum randomness, using which one can study both chaotic and non-chaotic phenomena in the context of quantum statistical mechanics. In this paper, we define a general class of OTOC, which can perfectly capture quantum randomness phenomena in a better way. Further we demonstrate an equivalent formalism of computation using a general time independent Hamiltonian having well defined eigenstate representation for integrable supersymmetric quantum systems. We found that one needs to consider two new correlators apart from the usual one to have a complete quantum description. To visualize the impact of the given formalism we consider the two well known models viz. Harmonic Oscillator and one dimensional potential well within the framework of supersymmetry. For the Harmonic Oscillator case we obtain similar periodic time dependence but dissimilar parameter dependences compared to the results obtained from both microcanonical and canonical ensembles in quantum mechanics without supersymmetry. On the other hand, for one dimensional potential well problem we found significantly different time scale and the other parameter dependence compared to the results obtained from non-supersymmetric quantum mechanics. Finally, to establish the consistency of the prescribed formalism in the classical limit, we demonstrate the phase space averaged version of the classical version of OTOCs from a model independent Hamiltonian along with the previously mentioned these well cited models.

This paper presents a novel statistical model i.e. the Laplace-Rician distribution, for the characterisation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Since accurate statistical models lead to better results in applications such as target tracking, classification, or despeckling, characterising SAR images of various scenes including urban, sea surface, or agricultural, is essential. The proposed Laplace-Rician model is investigated for SAR images of several frequency bands and various scenes in comparison to state-of-the-art statistical models that include K, Weibull, and Lognormal. The results demonstrate the superior performance and flexibility of the proposed model for all frequency bands and scenes.

We revisit the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SIR) model which is one of the simplest compartmental models. Many epidemological models are derivatives of this basic form. While an analytic solution to the SIR model is known in parametric form for the case of a time-independent infection rate, we derive an analytic solution for the more general case of a time-dependent infection rate, that is not limited to a certain range of parameter values. Our approach allows us to derive several exact analytic results characterizing all quantities, and moreover explicit, non-parametric, and accurate analytic approximants for the solution of the SIR model for time-independent infection rates. We relate all parameters of the SIR model to a measurable, usually reported quantity, namely the cumulated number of infected population and its first and second derivatives at an initial time t=0, where data is assumed to be available. We address the question on how well the differential rate of infections is captured by the Gauss model (GM). To this end we calculate the peak height, width, and position of the bell-shaped rate analytically. We find that the SIR is captured by the GM within a range of times, which we discuss in detail. We prove that the SIR model exhibits an asymptotic behavior at large times that is different from the logistic model, while the difference between the two models still decreases with increasing reproduction factor. This part A of our work treats the original SIR model to hold at all times, while this assumption will be released in part B. Releasing this assumption allows to formulate initial conditions incompatible with the original SIR model.

The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors such as doubling times and reproduction factors currently in use to judge about lock-downs and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact, and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), and the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors including basic reproduction numbers.

The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave allows to draw conclusions on the dark number of infections, the amount of heard immunization, the used maximum capacity of breathing apparati and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in different countries. In Germany, Switzerland and Sweden the dark numbers are 7.4 +/- 6.1, 11.1 +/- 8.5 and 25 +/- 25, respectively. Our method of estimating dark numbers from modeling both, infection and death rates simultaneously spares these countries the laborious, time-consuming and costly medical testing for antibodies of large portions of the population. In Germany the total number of infected persons, including the dark number of infections by the first wave is estimated to be 1.06 +/- 0.60 million, corresponding to 1.28 +/- 0.72 percent of the German population. We work out direct implications from these predictions for managing the 2nd and further corona waves.

In the current pandemic of COVID-19, students and faculty are subject to social distancing and online learning. How to test students in this unprecedented environment is a new educational challenge with immediate and global impacts. The main contribution of this paper is to establish the feasibility that by a clever design we can control the average gain (which is referred to as the g-factor) from cheating behaviors to a degree as small as pre-specified so that accurate and reliable online exams can be administered. It is underlined that even after the pandemic the methods and systems in the spirit of our proposal are still valuable for cost-effective exams to promote open courses and internet-based education.

The second law of thermodynamics states the increase of entropy, ΔS > 0, for real processes from state A to state B at constant energy from chemistry over biological life and engines to cosmic events. The connection of entropy to information, phase-space and heat is helpful, but does not immediately convince observers of the validity and basis of the second law. This gave grounds for finding a rigorous, but more easily acceptable reformulation. Here we show using statistical mechanics that this principle is equivalent to a force law ⟨⟨f⟩⟩> 0 in systems where mass centres and forces can be identified. The sign of this net force - the average mean force along a path from A to B - determines the direction of the process. The force law applies to a wide range of processes from machines to chemical reactions. The explanation of irreversibility by a driving force appears more plausible than the traditional formulation as it emphasizes the cause instead of the effect of motions.

Many species of plants are found in regions to which they are alien. Their global distributions are characterised by a family of exponential functions of the kind that arise in elementary statistical mechanics (an example in ecology is MacArthur's broken stick). We show here that all these functions are quantitatively reproduced by a model containing a single parameter – some global resource partitioned at random on the two axes of species number and site number. A dynamical model generating this equilibrium is a two fold stochastic process and suggests a curious and interesting biological interpretation in terms of niche structures fluctuating with time and productivity; with sites and species highly idiosyncratic. Idiosyncrasy implies that attempts to identify a priori those species likely to become naturalized are unlikely to be successful. Although this paper is primarily concerned with a particular problem in population biology, the two fold stochastic process may be of more general interest.

: Flotation performance in plants can significantly be affected by seasonal variations in different parts of the world. This is generally attributed to the changes in water temperature and pulp temperature in flotation plants, type and concentration of dissolved ions in process water. Extreme temperature conditions may be the major factor affecting flotation performance and mask the influence of water chemistry. Therefore, the interactive effects of the temperature and water chemistry should be taken into consideration, particularly for mine sites experiencing extreme temperature conditions. In this paper, effects of temperature, sulphate (SO42-), thiosulphate (S2O32-) and calcium (Ca2+) ions on the flotation performance of a Cu-Pb-Zn complex sulfide ore were investigated using a statistical experimental design and modelling approach. Batch scale kinetic flotation tests were conducted using the sequential flotation flowsheet of a bulk Cu-Pb flotation stage followed by a zinc rougher flotation stage. The results of the zinc flotation section were used for the statistical evaluation since the zinc concentrate was the product with an economic value for the mine. The results were evaluated using ANOVA analysis and regression analysis to determine the significant parameters and derive individual regression models for each flotation response with Design Expert software version 6.0.8. Individual regression models were developed using the significant main effects and their interactions for each flotation response. Then, the models were used to determine the concentration of the dissolved ions and pulp temperature required to achieve the maximum zinc recovery, maximum zinc grade or the optimum zinc grade and recovery. The details of statistical experimental design, discussions on the effects of the experimental factors and their interactions on the flotation performance and development of regression models are discussed in this paper.

Drought events are evident effects of climate change around the globe and yield several socio-economic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, like agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydro-logical droughts occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections with the Quantile Delta Mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increase in duration and severity of events over all of SA and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by deci-sion-makers and energy planners.

The major industrial cities of Bangladesh are heavily experiencing air pollution-related problems due to the increased trend of Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and other pollutants. This paper aimed to investigate and understand the relationship between PM2.5 and land use and climatic variables and to identify the riskiest area and population groups using a Geographic information system and regression analysis. The results show that about 41% of PM2.5 concentration increased within 19 years (2002-2021) in the study area, while the highest concentration of PM2.5 was found from 2012 to 2021. The concentrations of PM2.5 were higher over barren lands, forests, croplands, and urban areas. About 64%, 62.7%, 57%, and 55% concentrations were increased annually over barren lands, forests, cropland, and urban regions, respectively, from 2002-2021. The highest concentration level of PM2.5 (84 mg m-3) among other land use classes was found in urban areas in 2021. The regression analysis shows that air pressure (r2= - 0.26), evaporation (r2= - 0.01), humidity (r2= - 0.22), rainfall (r2= - 0.20), and water vapor (r2= - 0.03) were negatively correlated with PM2.5. On the other hand, air temperature (r2= 0.24), ground heat (r2= 0.60), and wind speed (r2= 0.34) were positively correlated with PM2.5. More than 60 Upazilas were the most polluted areas, with 1,948,029 populations (ages 0-5), 485,407 (ages 50-69), and a total population of 11,260,162 were in the high-risk/hotspot zone. The government line department may use the main results paper's key results, policymakers, stainable development practitioners, academicians, and others for integrated air pollution mitigation and management in Bangladesh and other geographical settings worldwide.

The thermocontextual interpretation (TCI) establishes a system’s exergy, entropic energy, and thermal entropy as thermocontextual properties of state, defined with respect to its positive temperature surroundings. This work extends previous applications of the TCI to irreversible and statistical transitions. The TCI defines statistical entropy as a transactional process of derandomization and transition to a negative-entropy state. Statistical measurements of a confined quantum particle’s position are detailed in terms of reversible processes of instantiation and actualization. The TCI then formalizes the MaxEnt as a fundamental physical principle. We apply MaxEnt and statistical entropy measurements to the double-slit experiment. Particles passing through parallel slits record a wave interference pattern, but a “which-slit” detector eliminates wave interference. Richard Feynman called the double-slit experiment the only mystery, at the heart of quantum mechanics. The TCI offers a simple explanation. The which-slit detector breaks the system’s symmetry, enabling particles to pass through one slit or the other, and MaxEnt selects the asymmetrical transition, which has no wave interference and a higher statistical entropy.

A significant number of research studies have focused on determining whether BMI influences various types of cancer. The findings of these studies showed that people have to manage their BMIs to decrease their risk of developing various types of cancer, one of which is ovarian cancer. A PRISMA guideline for systematic review and meta-analysis was used to identify 20 research studies related to the topic to establish the truth or falsity of the findings. Later, their findings were synthesized. The synthesis of the findings of such research articles suggests that overweight and obesity increase an individual’s risk of developing ovarian cancer and experiencing severe symptoms of the disease. In such a manner, the current research study can conclude that effective management of BMI is necessary for decreasing the prevalence and mortality rates associated with ovarian cancer.

We present a method to study the interannual variability of the annual cycle. The method consists of first determining the amplitude and phase of segments of 12 monthly means at all spatial points, resulting in one complex number per grid point and per year. The complex fields, once per year, are then subject to a complex EOF (CEOF) analysis. We consider as an example the barotropic stream function in the South China Sea as simulated with an ocean general circulation model across 6 decades of years, driven my realistic (NCEP) weather forcing. We find 3 to 4 to “significant” CEOFs, which account for about 53 to 62% of variance. These CEOFs go with large-scale patterns. Their time coefficients are mostly stationary, but point to some inhomogeneities related to instationarities in the forcing. In particular, the simulation since 1950-1958 deviates from the remainder of the simulation. The first CEOF describes variations in the center of the South China Sea. Its principal component describes a systematic, albeit noisy shift by almost 180o from 1960 to about the year 2000. When overlaid the long-term mean annual mean, the overall change consists of an amplification of the annual cycle in the 1960s and 1990s, whereas In the 1970s, the amplitude was reduced. Phase shifts in the anomaly (given by the CEOFs) have a small effect, because of the dominance of the mean annual cycle. These variations are not related to ENSO variability but may origin in variations of the Southeast monsoon. The second EOF represents strong changes, both in terms of intensity and phase, in the Luzon strait.

We study the deterministic dynamics of N point particles moving at constant speed in a 2D table made of two polygonal urns connected by an active rectangular channel, which applies a feedback-control on the particles, inverting the horizontal component of their velocities, when their number in the channel exceeds a fixed threshold. Such a bounce--back mechanism is non-dissipative: it preserves volumes in phase space. An additional passive channel closes the billiard table forming a circuit in which a stationary current may flow. Under specific constraints on the geometry and on the initial conditions, the large N limit allows nonequilibrium phase transitions between homogeneous and inhomogeneous phases. The role of ergodicity in making a probabilistic theory applicable is discussed both for rational and irrational urns. The theoretical predictions are compared with the numerical simulation results. Connections with the dynamics of feedback-controlled biological systems are highlighted.

Multicellular life forms have evolved many times in our planet, suggesting that this is a common evolutionary innovation. Multiple advantages have been proposed for multicellularity (MC) to emerge. In this paper we address the problem of how the first precondition for multicellularity, namely "stay together" might have occurred under spatially limited resources exploited by a population of unicellular agents. Using a minimal model of evolved cell-cell adhesion among growing and dividing cells that exploit a localised resource with a given size, we show that a transition occurs at a critical resource size separating a phase of evolved multicellular aggregates from a phase where unicellularity (UC) is favoured. The two phases are separated by an intermediate domain where where both UC and MC can be selected by evolution. This model provides a minimal approach to the early stages that were required to transition from Darwinian individuality to cohesive groups of cells associated with a physical cooperative effect: when resources are present only in a localised portion of the habitat, MC is a desirable property as it helps cells to keep close to the available local nutrients.

When participants in a statistical learning paradigm are asked to learn from two incompatible or competing inputs, they often fail to learn from one or both inputs. This study presents the results of two experiments that were both completed by one group of typically developing four-year-old children. One experiment targeted word-medial consonant patterns (phonotactics), whereas the other targeted strong-weak and weak-strong stress patterns (prosody). The order of the experiments was critical for learning outcomes in the phonotactics experiment: When children learned phonotactics first, their production accuracy increased following exposure to a high frequency input. When children learned phonotactics second, however, their production accuracy dropped when they were exposed to the high frequency input. Results from the prosody experiment were inconclusive, with limited evidence of any learning effect. Overall, the results suggest that children may conflate learning experiences, and patterns learned from an initial experimental input compete with patterns in a subsequent experiment. When considering natural language acquisition, the results suggest that an isolated episode of learning may lead to generalizations that are incompatible with later input, and possibly, with larger patterns in the language.

Statistical management policy and system plays significant role in development of any nation as it guides the planner to analyze the gaps, design programs and allocate budget in efficient manner. Globally, design and usage of statistical management system varies relying on country specific ability and resources availability. Government of Nepal has been managing database in individual as well as thematic manner. Policy wise, thematic database is in operation based on Statistics Act 1958 and individual database is in operation based on Birth, Death and Other Personal Related Events Registration Act 1976. Though civil registration related policies have been either updated or newly formed, sectoral statistic management related policy has not been updated since its first promulgation period (1958). With no policy supporting the consolidated statistical management system, government as well as non-government agencies has been investing millions of dollars annually to collect, compile and analyze individual related data and fulfill their respective objectives. It has forced the government services and performance to be paper-based, time-consuming and tedious thus creating dis-trust among citizen each passing day. Though, formulation of legal instrument promoted digital movement and mandated shift towards e-government modality, the process has been low. Theoretically, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) state the need of having advanced and efficient technology to be in place in current setting to improve governance, efficiency, accountability, transparency and trust. Also, the same theory state the requirement of strong willingness and motivation from the users (government, non-government and citizen) to adopt the technology based policy and system. As the integrated statistical management policy emphasizes on technology-based system or digital system, the perspectives of Technology Acceptance Model also termed as Information System Theory aid in understanding the context, conceptualizing and addressing the needs with an establishment and implementation of digital system or technology based system. This policy paper applied the Technology Acceptance Model (TAP) to examine the underlying opportunities and challenges associated with an integrated statistical management policy. With existing gaps in existing policy, system and practice alongside an overview of opportunities and challenges, this paper recommends the need of stand-alone integrated statistical management policy to consolidate sectoral as well as civil related information through single system based on recommended policy.

Occasionally, officials of the world’s regulatory agencies embark upon attempts at bringing previously unregulated physical systems under regulation by them. Each such attempt raises an epistemological issue. At issue is whether enough information about the outcomes of the events of the future, given the outcomes of the events of the present, will be in the hands of a would-be regulator for this regulator to regulate effectually. If present, this information is provided by runs of a model of the physical system that is slated for regulation. Ideally, this model makes an argument that draws its conclusion from the evidence presented to it. If so, this argument is of the form of a predictive inference. However, the process by which an argument draws its conclusion from the evidence may go awry. This happens, for example, when the axiom of probability theory called unit measure is falsified by a conclusion that is drawn from the evidence by this argument.A method is derived from first principles for determination of whether unit measure is satisfied or falsified by an argument made by a model, given that this argument may attach unusual meanings to statistical terms. This method is used in a study of whether unit measure is satisfied or falsified by the arguments that are made by a pair of models. Both models are in active use by regulatory agencies around the world. Under neither argument do runs of the model provide an official of a regulatory agency with the information gain aka mutual information that he or she would need to regulate effectually. Under both arguments, attachment of unusual meanings to statistical terms creates the illusion that such an official can and does regulate effectually.

What are relevant levels of description when investigating human language? How are these levels connected to each other? Does one description yield smoothly into the next one such that different models lie naturally along a hierarchy containing each other? Or, instead, are there sharp transitions between one description and the next, such that to gain a little bit accuracy it is necessary to change our framework radically? Do different levels describe the same linguistic aspects with increasing (or decreasing) accuracy? Historically, answers to these questions were guided by intuition and resulted in subfields of study, from phonetics to syntax and semantics. Need for research at each level is acknowledged, but seldom are these different aspects brought together (with notable exceptions). Here we propose a methodology to inspect empirical corpora systematically, and to extract from them, blindly, relevant phenomenological scales and interactions between them. Our methodology is rigorously grounded in information theory, multi-objective optimization, and statistical physics. Salient levels of linguistic description are readily interpretable in terms of energies, entropies, phase transitions, or criticality. Our results suggest a critical point in the description of human language, indicating that several complementary models are simultaneously necessary (and unavoidable) to describe it.

Statistical inferences is regarded as the general criteria for statistical conclusion and drawing generalizations. However, most of the inferential statistical tools are based on strong assumptions which create a strict limitations on their use and application. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is one of such statistics. In this article, eight (8) new ANOVA-like methodologies were proposed, in alternative to one-way ANOVA, based on the assumptions of statistical mirroring. Methods validation in comparison with one-way ANOVA was designed to assess the suitability and statistical power of the new proposals as an alternative methods, using different sets of logically generated multivariate datasets with different problems and statistical complications. The results of comparisons validate that the eight (8) proposed ANOVA-like methodologies were suitable alternatives to ANOVA, in the sense that they require no normality assumption to be meet, used different ways to compare the data with different statistical elements rather than depending on only variance, efficient with negative values, and results interpretation is easier.

In crystal periodic structure prediction, a general equation is needed to determine the period vectors (cell edge vectors), especially when crystals are under arbitrary external stress. It has been derived in Newtonian dynamics years ago, which can be combined with quantum mechanics by further modeling. Here we derived such an equation in statistical physics, applicable to both classical physics and quantum physics by itself.

Power Electronic development determines introduction of nonlinear devices in Electric Power Systems. Introduction of nonlinear devices increase current harmonics in Transmission and Distribution Power Systems. Distribution transformers and feeders increase power losses and their nominal parameters are reduced. Present work introduces a procedure to evaluate maximum permissible load in single phase distribution transformers with massive introduction of a new type of nonlinear load which changes daily demand graphs.

Longitudinal dispersion coefficient (LDC) plays an essential role in modeling the transport of pollution and sediment in the natural rivers. As a result of transportation processes, the concentration of pollution changes along the river. Different studies have been conducted to provide simple equations for estimating LDC. In this study, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), M5P and Random Forest (RF) examined to predict the LDC in the natural streams. The hydraulic and geometric features of different rivers gathered for developing the mentioned models for LDC estimation and various statistical criteria were utilized to scrutinize of the models. Furthermore, the Taylor chart was used to evaluate the models and achieved results showed that among machine learning models, M5P displayed the superior performance with CC of 0.823, SI of 0.812, NS of 0.577 and WI of 0.879. As well, S-D model with CC of 0.795 SI of 0.827, NS of 0.558 and WI of 0.890 had more precise results than other empirical models. The results indicates that the developed M5P model with simple formulations was superior to other machine learning models and empirical models and therefore, it can be used as a proper tool for estimating LDC in natural rivers.

Environmental accounting should be performed by both private companies and local governments. However, it may be difficult for government agencies to objectively measure their current environmental impact, and there is currently no internationally standardized methodology of environmental accounting for local governments. This study therefore attempts to incorporate life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) into the calculation of environmental loads for administrative divisions. In LCIA, environmental loads for several impact categories, such as “Climate change” and “Land use,” are integrated into a simple indicator expressed in terms of monetary units. This study leverages the LIME-3 assessment theory, one of the endpoint-type and global-scale LCIA methods. Annual environmental loads for administrative divisions in 42 countries were measured in a tentative assessment. Results showed that the annual damages for the 42 countries to be USD 10.5 trillion. Assessment results are shown on the world map to highlight the regionality of the damages in the 42 countries’ administrative divisions. This study seeks to provide new knowledge that local governments around the world can use in environmental accounting.

We report the application of a recently proposed approach for modeling biological systems using a maximum entropy production rate principle in lieu of having in vivo rate constants. The method is applied in four steps: (1) a new ODE-based optimization approach based on Marcelin’s 1910 mass action equation is used to obtain the maximum entropy distribution, (2) the predicted metabolite concentrations are compared to those generally expected from experiment using a loss function from which post-translational regulation of enzymes is inferred, (3) the system is re-optimized with the inferred regulation from which rate constants are determined from the metabolite concentrations and reaction fluxes, and finally (4) a full ODE-based, mass action simulation with rate parameters and allosteric regulation is obtained. From the last step, the power characteristics and resistance of each reaction can be determined. The method is applied to the central metabolism of Neurospora crassa and the flow of material through the three competing pathways of upper glycolysis, the non-oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway are evaluated as a function of the NADP/NADPH ratio. It is predicted that regulation of phosphofructokinase (PFK) and flow through the pentose phosphate pathway are essential for preventing an extreme level of fructose 1, 6-bisphophate accumulation. Such an extreme level of fructose 1,6-bisphophate would otherwise result in a glassy cytoplasm with limited diffusion, dramatically decreasing the entropy and energy production rate and, consequently, biological competitiveness.

Kinetic parameters of SO2 adsorption on unburned carbons from lignite fly ash and activated carbons based on hard coal dust were determined. The model studies were performed using the linear and non-linear regression method for the following models: pseudo first and second-order, intraparticle diffusion, and chemisorption on a heterogeneous surface. The quality of the fitting of a given model to empirical data was assessed based on: R2, R, Δq, SSE, ARE, χ2, HYBRID, MPSD, EABS, and SNE. It was clearly shown that it is the linear regression that more accurately reflects the behaviour of the adsorption system, which is consistent with the first-order kinetic reaction – for activated carbons (SO2+Ar) or chemisorption on a heterogeneous surface – for unburned carbons (SO2+Ar and SO2+Ar+H2O(g)+O2) and activated carbons (SO2+Ar+H2O(g)+O2). Importantly, usually, each of the approaches (linear/non-linear) indicated a different mechanism of the studied phenomenon. A certain universality of the χ2 and HYBRID functions has been proved, the minimization of which repeatedly led to the lowest SNE values for the indicated models. Fitting data by any of the non-linear equations based on the R or R2 functions only, cannot be treated as evidence/prerequisite of the existence of a given adsorption mechanism.

While the language model using the stop sign as an independent token has been widely used to decide when the model should stop, it may lead to the growth of vocabulary dimensions and further problems. Similarly, present research on game algorithms usually estimate stopping point related problems based on the evaluation of the winning rate. However, information redundancy may also exist in such models, thus increasing the training difficulty. Above two types of tasks (and similar autoregressive tasks) show a common problem of stopping point prediction. In this paper, we describe a design of separated model, trying to separate the complexity of stopping point prediction from the main task model, so that the information used for estimating stopping point can be reduced. On this basis, in order to verify the rationality of using separated model, we propose a model-free test method. It judges the separability of transformed data based on point difference and sequence difference metrics. In this way, it can predict the credibility of the separated model inference.

A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, P-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, statistically significant results have overestimated effect sizes, a bias declining with increasing statistical power. Third, statistically non-significant results have underestimated effect sizes, and this bias gets stronger with higher statistical power. Fourth, the tested statistical hypotheses usually lack biological justification and are often uninformative. Despite these problems, a screen of 48 papers from the 2020 volume of the Journal of Evolutionary Biology exemplifies that significance testing is still used almost universally in evolutionary biology. All screened studies tested default null hypotheses of zero effect with the default significance threshold of p = 0.05, none presented a pre-specified alternative hypothesis, pre-study power calculation, and the probability of ‘false negatives’(beta error). The results sections of the papers presented 49 significance tests on average (median 23, range 0–390). Of 41 studies that contained verbal descriptions of a ‘statistically non-significant’ result, 26 (63%) falsely claimed the absence of an effect. We conclude that studies in ecology and evolutionary biology are mostly exploratory and descriptive. We should thus shift from claiming to ‘test’ specific hypotheses statistically to describing and discussing many hypotheses (possible true effect sizes) that are most compatible with our data, given our statistical model. We already have the means for doing so, because we routinely present compatibility (‘confidence’) intervals covering these hypotheses.

The temporal evolution of pandemics described by the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR)-compartment model is sensitively determined by the time dependence of the infection (a(t)) and recovery (u(t)) rates regulating the transitions from the susceptible to the infected and from the infected to the recovered compartment, respectively. Here approximated SIR-solutions for different time dependencies of the infection and recovery rates are derived which are based on the adiabatic approximation assuming time-dependent ratios k(t)=u(t)/a(t) varying slowly in comparison to the typical time characteristics of the pandemic wave. For such slow variations the available analytical approximations from the KSSIR-model, valid for a stationary value of the ratio k, are used to insert a-posteriori the adopted time-dependent ratio of the two rates. Instead of investigating endless different combinations of the time dependencies of the two rates a(t) and u(t) a suitably parameterized reduced time dependence of the ratio k(tau) is adopted. Together with the definition of the reduced time this parameterized ratio k(tau) allows us to cover a great variety of different time dependencies of the infection and recovery rates. The agreement between the solutions from the adiabatic approximation in its four different studied variants and the exact numerical solutions of the SIR-equations is remarkably good providing strong confidence in the accuracy of the proposed adiabatic approximation.

A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at discussing how the debate is perceived by the agricultural economics community and implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. We start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate and the replication crisis, and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of a survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. We conclude that beyond short-term measures like changing rules of reporting in publications, a cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices is needed that stretches across all our roles in the scientific process. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.

For the majority of the contractual arrangements used in construction projects, the owner is not responsible for the cost deviations due to the variability of labor productivity or material price, amongst many other aspects. Consequently, the cost performance of a project may be entirely distinct for the owner and the contractor. Since the majority of the quantitative research on cost estimation and deviation found in the literature adopts the owners’ perspective, this research provides a contribution towards modelling costs and cost deviation from a contractors’ perspective. From an initial sample of 13 residential building and 10 office building projects, it was possible to develop models for cost estimation at the early stage of development including both endogenous and exogenous variables. Although the sample is relatively small, the authors were able to fully analyze all the cost data, using no secondary sources of data (very frequent in cost modelling studies). The statistically significant variables in the cost estimation models were the areas above and below ground and the years following the 2008 financial crisis, including the international bailout (2011-2014) period. For estimating the unit cost, a nonlinear model was obtained with the number of underground and total floor, the floor ratio and the years following the 2008 financial crisis, including the international bailout (2011-2014) period as predictors. For the office buildings, it was also found a statistically significant correlation between the cost deviation and the number of underground floors.

Statistical significance measures the reliability of a result obtained from a random experiment. We investigate the number of repetitions needed for a statistical result to have a certain significance. In the first step, we consider binomially distributed variables in the example of medication testing with fixed placebo efficacy, asking how many experiments are needed in order to achieve a significance of 95 %. In the next step, we take the probability distribution of the placebo efficacy into account, which to the best of our knowledge has not been done so far. Depending on the specifics, we show that in order to obtain identical significance, it may be necessary to perform twice as many experiments than in a setting where the placebo distribution is neglected. We proceed by considering more general probability distributions and close with comments on some erroneous assumptions on probability distributions which lead, for instance, to a trivial explanation of the fat tail.

El Niño is warming of the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Extreme flooding, drought, lack of potable water for livestock and domestic use, food insecurity and market imbalance are associated with El Niño and La Niña in Ethiopia. Drought following El Niño caused 50 to 90% crop failure, in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. El Niño episodes are detected using different statistical indices such as Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), with magnitude ranging from weak to strong. Identifying the El Niño and La Niña seasons it is very important to adopt suitable adaptation strategies, which can resolve and/or reduce the negative impacts. Early warning and immediate support to the impacted areas have been carried out to minimize risks from El Niño animal feed for livestock from other areas has been transported to the vulnerable areas. Planting early maturing and drought resistant crops, supplementary irrigation, early waning information on weather and climate have been exercised as climate change adaptation strategies, early warning mechanisms by the government of Ethiopia. El Niño and La Niña are natural phenomena; however, it is necessary to study the occurrence and distribution of El Niño and La Niña episodes to enable early warning and identify suitable adaptation strategies and policy implications in the country.

A premise of statistical learning research is that learners attend to and learn the frequencies of repeating or co-occurring elements in the input. When the input is a series of words, participants readily learn the frequencies of phoneme sequences, that is, to learn phonotactic frequencies. Inherent to the concepts of both frequency and phonotactics is order, or the temporal structure of the input. Order is similarly inherent to statistical learning, yet the effect of order on statistical learning is not well understood. In the present study, adult participants learned the relative frequencies of eight item-medial consonant sequences, for example, the /mk/ in /nʌmkət/. Across five ordering conditions, both familiarization and test stimuli were independently ordered and randomized, thus allowing for a relatively broad search for order effects in an established statistical learning paradigm. Participants learned the target frequencies equivalently across the five ordering conditions, indicating no modulating effect of order. Nevertheless, participants also approached the task by applying idiosyncratic, structured orders to their responses. The result is an unexpected but robust effect of order. Both the results and the design of the study also allow for increased integration of statistical learning with memory and other aspects of cognition.

Statistical mechanics investigates how emergent properties of macroscopic systems (such as temperature and pressure) relate to microscopic state fluctuations. The underlying idea is that global statistical descriptors of order and variability can monitor the relevant dynamics of the whole system at hand. Here we test the possibility of extending such an approach to psychotherapy research investigating the possibility of predicting the outcome of psychotherapy on the sole basis of coarse-grained empirical macro-parameters. Four good-outcome and four poor-outcome brief psychotherapies were recorded, and their transcripts coded in terms of standard psychological categories (abstract, positive emotional and negative emotional language pertaining to patient and therapist). Each patient-therapist interaction is considered as a discrete multivariate time series made of subsequent word-blocks of 150-word length, defined in terms of the above categories. Static analysis (Principal Component Analysis) highlighted a substantial difference between good-outcome and poor-outcome cases in terms of mutual correlations among those descriptors. In the former, the patient’s use of abstract language correlated with therapist’s emotional negative language, while in the latter it co-varied with therapist’s emotional positive language, thus showing the different judgment of the therapists regarding the same variable (abstract language) in poor and good outcome cases. On the other hand, the dynamic analysis, based on five coarse-grained descriptors related to variability, degree of order and complexity of the series, demonstrated a relevant case-specific effect, pointing to the possibility of deriving a consistent picture of any single psychotherapeutic process. Overall, the results showed that the systemic approach to psychotherapy (an old tenet of psychology) is mature to shift from a metaphorical to a fully quantitative status.

In this paper, we introduce and study the notion of rough I₂-lacunary statistical convergence of double sequences in normed linear spaces. We also introduce the notion of rough I₂-lacunary statistical limit set of a double sequence and discuss about some properties of this set.

Studies on the structure of economic systems are, most frequently, carried out by the methods of informational statistics. These methods, often accompanied by a wide range of indicators (Shannon entropy, Balassa coefficient, Herfindahl specialty index, Gini coefficient, Theil index etc.) around which a wide literature has been created over time, have a major disadvantage. Such weakness is related to the imposition of the system condition, therefore the need to know all the components of the system (as absolute values or as weights). This restriction is difficult to accomplish in some situations, and in others, this knowledge may be irrelevant, especially when there is an interest in structural changes only in some of the components of the economic system (either we refer to the typology of economic activities - NACE or of territorial units – NUTS). This article presents a procedure for characterizing the structure of a system and for comparing its evolution over time, in the case of incomplete information, thus eliminating the restriction existent in the classical methods. The proposed methodological alternative uses a parametric distribution, with subunit values for the variable. The application refers to Gross Domestic Product values for five of the 28 European Union countries, with annual values of over 1,000 billion Euros (Germany, Spain, France, Italy and United Kingdom) for the years 2003 and 2015. A form of the Wald sequential test is applied to measure changes in the structure of this group of countries, between the years compared. The results of this application validate the proposed method.

Daily maximum surface air temperature (Tamax) is a crucial factor for understanding complex land surface processes under rapid climate change. Remote detection of Tamax has widely relied on the empirical relationship between air temperature and land surface temperature (LST), a product derived from remote sensing. However, little is known about how such a relationship is affected by the high heterogeneity in landscapes and dynamics in seasonality. This study aims to advance our understanding of the roles of land cover and seasonal variation in the estimation of Tamax using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST product. We developed statistical models to link Tamax and LST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China for five major land-cover types (i.e., forest, shrub, water, impervious surface, cropland, and grassland) and two seasons (i.e., growing season and non-growing season). Results show that the performance of modeling the Tamax-LST relationship was highly dependent on land cover and seasonal variation. Estimating Tamax over grasslands and water bodies achieved superior performance; while uncertainties were high over forested lands that contained extensive heterogeneity in species types, plant structure, and topography. We further found that all the land-cover specific models developed for the plant non-growing season outperformed the corresponding models developed for the growing season. Discrepancies in model performance mainly occurred in the vegetated areas (forest, cropland, and shrub), suggesting an important role of plant phenology in defining the statistical relationship between Tamax and LST. For impervious surfaces, the challenge of capturing the high spatial heterogeneity in urban settings using the low-resolution MODIS data made Tamax estimation a difficult task, which was especially true in the growing season.

Distributions with bounded support show considerable sparsity over those with unbounded support, despite the fact that there are a number of real-world contexts where observations take values from a bounded range (proportions, percentages, and fractions are typical examples). For proportion modelling, a flexible family of two-parameter distribution functions associated with the exponential distribution is proposed here. Mathematical and statistical properties of the novel distribution are examined, including quantiles, mode, moments, hazard rate function, and its characterization. The parameter estimation procedure using the maximum likelihood method was carried out, and applications to environmental and engineering data were also considered. To this end, various statistical tests are used, along with some other information criterion indicators to determine how well the model fits the data. The proposed model is found to be the most efficient plan in most cases for the datasets considered.

With the rapid development of urbanization, the chemical evolution of groundwater is significantly affected by human activities. However, the driving mechanisms of groundwater chemical evolution at different stages of urbanization remain unclear, severely impacting the implementation of groundwater protection. This study investigated the driving mechanisms of groundwater chemical evolution based on the long-term series (from 1985 to 2015) of hydrochemical data from 19 groundwater monitoring sites in rapidly urbanizing areas (Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China). The results show that the concentrations of various chemical components in groundwater gradually increase with the acceleration of urbanization process, especially NO3-, which has increased from 13.7 mg/L in the primary stage of urbanization (PSU) to 65.1mg/L in the advanced stage of urbanization (ASU), exceeding the WHO drinking water standard (50mg/L), indicating that the groundwater chemistry has been significantly affected by human activities. It is interesting to find that the main hydrochemical types have changed from HCO3•SO4-Ca•Mg type water in the PSU to SO4•HCO3-Ca•Mg type water in the ASU. It is worth noting that there were obvious differences in driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution at different urbanization stages. In the PSU, the driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution were carbonate and rock salt dissolution, cation exchange, and industrial activities. However, in the intermediate stage and advanced stage, the driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution were changed to carbonate and gypsum dissolution, groundwater over-exploitation, agricultural fertilization, and domestic sewage. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that future groundwater management should control the amount of agricultural fertilizers, apply scientific fertilization, and prohibit the discharge of various types of non-compliant sewage, while strengthening the supervision of groundwater extraction to reduce the impact of urbanization development on the groundwater chemical evolution process.

Predictive processes and numerous cognitive, motor, and social skills depend heavily on sequence and statistical learning. The visuomotor Serial Reaction Time Task (SRTT) can measure these fundamental cognitive processes. In this review, we sought to answer whether repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is suitable for modulating visuomotor sequence learning and which factors mediate its efficacy. We systematically analyzed the eligible records (n = 17) that attempted to modulate the performance of the SRTT with rTMS. The purpose of the analysis was to determine how the following factors affected SRTT performance: (1) stimulated brain areas, (2) rTMS protocols, (3) stimulated hemisphere, (4) timing of the stimulation, (5) SRTT sequence properties, and (6) other methodological features. The primary motor cortex (M1) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) were found to be the most promising stimulation targets. Low-frequency protocols over the M1 usually weaken performance, but the results are less consistent for the DLPFC. These inconsistencies (at least in part) may be due to the current frequency-based heuristics of rTMS effects developed for explaining local stimulation effects in the motor cortex. Although this review cannot provide an ultimate answer about the optimal stimulation and task parameters, it comprehensively discusses the behavioral effects of six factors that are crucial for designing future studies to modulate sequence learning with rTMS. Moreover, we conclude that synergistically combining functional neuroimaging with rTMS could adequately link the rTMS-induced network effects with the behavioral findings that are crucial to develop a unified cognitive model of visuomotor sequence learning.

Human motor planning combines such interesting aspects as modular organization in motor primitives and characteristics of stochastic optimality. Motor primitives aided in the description of motor skill learning. In this study, for the first time, an interpretation is proposed to explain how motor primitives are shaped in a stochastic optimality process.To this end, sensory information is assumed to be random variables at each moment. Theoretically, the results confirmed that the variability of a movement increased with passing time. As a result, motor planning should be performed in shorter durations to achieve an accurate movement. It means that a task should be divided into several subtasks at various stages of time. Moreover, theoretically, the results confirmed that motor planning is statistically optimal if the movement is planned in minimum jerk space, which is in accordance with what is reported in the literature. Comparing the proposed mathematical model with the results of experimental data in two different types of motor action (i.e., arm reaching movement and sit-to-stand transfer from a chair) confirmed that the proposed model can be considered a framework to investigate the effect of bottom-up information on human motor planning level. Further experiments need to investigate it more deeply.

Purpose: The use of smart devices has increased greatly in the last ten years with users reaching out to the possibility to do more with them especially in the networking front. In this context there is a need to understand the connection between users’ social demographic factors and their way to related to their smart devices. Objective: This study was designed to evaluate the senso of belonging of a community in order to evaluate intangible benefits that employees may gain from a more immerse relationship with their devices. Method: We used a dataset of 586 anonymous respondent of an existing survey designed for capturing the relationships that humans develop with their smart devices. In particular, we investigate the relationships with smart device and particular background variables of the respondents using a chi-square test. Results: The study showed that there is a significant relationship between users’ sex and smart device type and their dependency on smart device. Male tends to think that smart device (in general) enables them to connect with a larger community. At the same time, female using smart phones feels more connected more to large community than when using other smart devices. Conclusion: This study provided several significant findings that confirm and strength previous literature works on the subject. In addition, socio demographics variables (like gender) as well as the type of smart device present a correlation between the smart device users and their tendency to stay in touch with a larger community.

We show that the van der Waals gas does not exhibit just the celebrated liquid-gas 1 transition but also a quantum-classical one. We study the issue with reference to the LMC statistical 2 complexity and in relation to the order-disorder contrast.

In the article a statistical approach to the assessment of the emission rates discharged by the road traffic in a spatial context is proposed. It exploits an indicator, the Yearly Average Vehicle, representing the pollutant emission rate of the average vehicle belonging to a specific category, and considers the statistical variability of most of the involved traffic parameters: vehicle speed and mileage travelled in the considered time period. Finally, indicators, assessing both the most probable value among the possible emission rates and the extent of their variability range, are proposed. They may also be used to underpin decision making-processes, when the effects of different policies addressing air pollution issues, are to be evaluated. Therefore, they are suitable for the analysis supporting urban planning activities, with a view to addressing and mitigating the effects and the consequences of pollution due to the transportation sector of the urban context.

The world of science is drowned in a wealth of information. How to make sense of this wealth of published articles, blog posts and abstracts has become an important challenge given the importance of science to different aspects of societal function. At the crux of the issue lies the increasing trend where scientific discovery informs decision making at the societal level. One example, is the elucidation of the ozone hole to the promulgation of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, and documenting increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration led to climate action and signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Hence, understanding a research field becomes an important need for many decision makers across different sectors of society. But, the scientific literature is cryptic and esoteric, and presents a significant barrier to comprehension. One approach to ameliorate the problem is statistical machine reading, which provides the critical capability of identifying key concepts that underpins a research field. Such important concepts help provide an incision point to gain further understanding of the field and initiating further conversation about the field. This work sought to validate the concept of whether applying statistical machine reading to a body of literature comprising short blog posts and abstracts of published articles help in understanding the field of metabolic engineering. One important angle pursued in this research is whether the tabulated list of terms and phrases identified by statistical machine reading could be creatively analyzed to gain a deeper understanding of the research field. For example, the most frequently occurring terms and phrases could describe key concepts of the research field. Moving down in frequency occurrence would be terms and phrases that describe methodologies and approaches of the field. Finally, less frequently occurring terms and phrases may be tools and resources used in the research field. Results validated the utility of statistical machine reading in identifying important terms and phrases associated with the research field. But the small dataset of blog posts and abstracts used in this study severely hampered the identification of most of the key concepts of metabolic engineering, which is a fairly broad field of research. Overall, statistical machine reading shows utility in identifying terms and phrases that could describe a field. However, the level of understanding is closely tied in to the breadth and depth of reading material available, which meant that the methodology is data intensive in nature. Future use of supercomputing or quantum computing could help alleviate constraints of computational capacity, and help tackle the exponential rise in computational complexity as the size of the reading material for machine reading expands.

Seven agronomic factors (crop season, farming system, harvest date, moisture, county, oat variety, and previous crop) were recorded for 202 oat crops grown across Ireland, and samples were analysed by LC-MS/MS for four major Fusarium mycotoxins: deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEN), T-2 toxin and HT-2 toxin. Type A trichothecenes were present in 62% of crops, with 7.4% exceeding European regulatory limits. DON (6.4%) and ZEN (9.9%) occurrences were rela-tively infrequent, though one and three samples were measured over their set limits respectively. Overall, the type of farming system and the previous crop were the main factors identified to significantly influence mycotoxin prevalence or concentration. Particularly, adherence to an organic farming system and growing oats after a previous crop of grass were found to decrease contamination by type A trichothecenes. These are important findings and may provide valuable insights for many other types of cereals crops as Europe moves towards a much greater organic based food system.

Agile methods promise to achieve high productivity and provide high-quality software. Agile software development is the most important approach that has spread through the world of software development over the past decade. Software team productivity measurement is essential in agile teams to increase the performance of software development. Due to the prevalence of agile methodologies and increasing competition of software development companies, software team productivity has become one of the crucial challenges for agile software companies and teams. Awareness of the level of team productivity can help them to achieve better estimation results on the time and cost of the projects. However, to measure software productivity, there is no definitive solution or approach whether in traditional and agile software development teams that lead to the occurrence of many problems in achieving a reliable definition of software productivity. Hence, this study aims to propose a statistical model to assess the team’s productivity in agile teams. A survey was conducted with forty software companies and measured the impact of six factors of the team on productivity in these companies. The results show that team effectiveness factors including inter-team relationship, quality conformance by the team, team vision, team leader, and requirements handled by the team had a significant impact on the team’s productivity. Moreover, the results also state that inter-team relations affect the most on software teams’ productivity. Finally, the model fit test showed that 80% of productivity depends on team effectiveness factors.

Statistical data on officially registered cases of health care-associated infections (HCAIs) in Ukraine in the period 2009-2019 have been analysed. On average, 5089±756 cases of HCAIs were registered annually. Odessa region of Ukraine is the leading country in the number of reported cases. The majority of HCAIs cases involve surgical and therapeutic invasive interventions and perinatal HCAIs. On average, 78.0±5.8 % of HCAIs cases involved adults. The estimated minimum number of HCAIs in Ukraine was expected to be about 1 million per year. Official statistics on registered cases of HCAIs in Ukraine do not reflect reality, so the system of registration and investigation of HCAIs in Ukraine needs to be reformed.