Article
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Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease
Version 1
: Received: 12 May 2020 / Approved: 13 May 2020 / Online: 13 May 2020 (03:40:22 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Abstract
The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors such as doubling times and reproduction factors currently in use to judge about lock-downs and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact, and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), and the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors including basic reproduction numbers.
Supplementary and Associated Material
http://www.complexfluids.ethz.ch/corona: COVID-19 real time statistics & extrapolation using the Gauss model (GM)
Keywords
coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Subject
Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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