Preprint Communication Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Clues from the First Covid-19 Wave and Recommendations for Social Measures in the Future

Version 1 : Received: 20 April 2020 / Approved: 21 April 2020 / Online: 21 April 2020 (08:14:23 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.


The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave allows to draw conclusions on the dark number of infections, the amount of heard immunization, the used maximum capacity of breathing apparati and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in different countries. In Germany, Switzerland and Sweden the dark numbers are 7.4 +/- 6.1, 11.1 +/- 8.5 and 25 +/- 25, respectively. Our method of estimating dark numbers from modeling both, infection and death rates simultaneously spares these countries the laborious, time-consuming and costly medical testing for antibodies of large portions of the population. In Germany the total number of infected persons, including the dark number of infections by the first wave is estimated to be 1.06 +/- 0.60 million, corresponding to 1.28 +/- 0.72 percent of the German population. We work out direct implications from these predictions for managing the 2nd and further corona waves.

Supplementary and Associated Material COVID-19 real time statistics & extrapolation using the Gauss model (GM)


coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading


Medicine and Pharmacology, Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

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