ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0078.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Obstetrics & Gynaecology Keywords: Africa; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; mortality; trends.
Online: 7 October 2022 (10:30:10 CEST)
Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the UNICE data bank from 2000 to 2017, being 2017 the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -3.0% (95% CI -2.9;-3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South Africa region. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0353.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Obstetrics & Gynaecology Keywords: Africa; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; mortality; trends
Online: 23 September 2022 (03:06:07 CEST)
Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database from 1990-2015. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -2.6%. All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in East Africa. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in East Africa. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0321.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: CoViD-19; Mortality; Weekly Cycle; Weekly Mortality Cycle; Pandemic
Online: 17 December 2020 (11:40:15 CET)
Background. The Weekly Mortality Cycle among CoViD-19 patients has been studied.Methods. Mortality data obtained from the 'Worldometer' website were analyzed with a comparison of absolute values, percentages, and p-value. Results. For patients suffering from CoViD-19, the most favorable or the safest days of the week were Sundays and Mondays. Conclusion. The weekly cycle with decreased mortality on Sundays and Mondays is a unique phenomenon observed among victims of CoViD-19. Presumably the decreased mortality on certain days of the week related to the optimized therapeutic protocols used on the "safest days".
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0382.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: alcohol, tobacco, mortality, mortality as health indicator, health inequality
Online: 13 November 2020 (13:35:27 CET)
Background: Drinking and smoking have economic consequences and are the main risk factors of mortality and morbidity. Disease-specific deaths attributable to using substances present the primary health indicator in this study. This analysis focuses on mortality in productive age, 15 to 64 years since those deaths are considered the highest economic burden. Method: In the analytical part, data from the Registry of deaths of the Czech Republic for 1994 to 2017 were used. The number of deaths attributable to smoking and drinking was calculated using attributable fractions, based on literature review. This research aimed to reveal the gender differences in deaths attributable to drinking and smoking, according to age, and the differences in deaths regarding smoking or drinking. Results: The mortality attributable to smoking and drinking differs across age groups and genders. The highest median share of tobacco-related deaths is in the age group, 60—64 years. The highest median share of alcoholic deaths is in the age group of 50—54 years. Conclusions: There are significant differences between genders in both, smoking and drinking. A prevention program should be targeted to different age groups.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pediatrics Keywords: infant; newborn; Cambodia; child mortality; perinatal mortality; health services
Online: 22 May 2019 (08:44:44 CEST)
Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe potential factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Takeo, Cambodia through assessment of verbal autopsies collected following newborn deaths in the community. The mortality review was nested within a trial of a behavioral intervention to improve newborn survival, and was conducted after the close of the trial, within the study setting. The World Health Organization standardized definition of neonatal mortality was employed, and two pediatricians independently reviewed data collected from each event to assign a cause of death. Results: Thirteen newborn deaths of infants born in health facilities participating in a community based, behavioral intervention were reported during February 2015–November 2016. Ten deaths (76.92%) were early neonatal deaths, two (15.38%) were late neonatal deaths, and one was a stillbirth. Five out of 13 deaths (38.46%) occurred within the first day of life. The largest single contributor to mortality was neonatal sepsis; six of 13 deaths (46.15%) were attributed to some form of sepsis. Twenty-three percent of deaths were attributed to asphyxia. The study highlights the continuing need to improve quality of care and infection prevention and control, and to fully address causes of sepsis, in order to effectively reduce mortality in the newborn period.: The study highlights the continuing need to improve both intrapartum and postnatal quality of care and infection prevention and control, and to fully address causes of sepsis, in order to effectively reduce mortality in the newborn period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0153.v2
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: winter mortality; trends; season; estimated influenza mortality; pandemic influenza; aging
Online: 25 February 2022 (14:24:30 CET)
Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1970’s to 1980’s. There is evidence that this decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter, and that the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900’s to around March since 1967. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM was examined using a large international data set. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity – all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0198.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: quantile regression; quantile time series; demographics; mortality; longevity; modelling mortality projection
Online: 12 June 2018 (15:05:09 CEST)
This paper has three objectives, the first is to present a detailed overview in the form of a tutorial for the developments of several key quantile time series modelling approaches. The second objective is to develop a general framework to represent such quantile models in a unifying manner in order to easily develop extensions and connections between existing models that can then be developed to further extend these models in practice. In this regard, the core theme of the paper is to provide perspectives to a general audience of core components that go into construction of a quantile time series model and then to explore each of these core components in detail. The paper is not addressing the concerns of estimation of these models, as there is existing literature on these aspects in many settings, we provide references to relevant works on these aspects in several classes of model. Instead, the focus is rather to provide a unified framework to construct such models for practitioners, therefore the focus is instead on the properties of the models and links between such models from a constructive perspective. The third objective is to compare and discuss the application of the different quantile time series models on several sets of interesting demographic and mortality based time series data sets of relevance to life insurance analysis. The exploration included detailed mortality, fertility, births and morbidity data in several countries with more detailed analysis of regional data in England, Wales and Scotland.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0718.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Temperature; Mortality; Heatwave; Epidemiology
Online: 30 November 2020 (11:08:26 CET)
There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, it compares excess mortality during the 2019 heatwaves to excess mortality during the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Lastly, it compares the excess mortality in the 2017-2019 heatwaves to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring Reports. The cumulative number of excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1,700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1,489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the summer period of 2019, 2018 and 2017 respectively using provisional death registrations. Issues have been identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the ONS daily death occurrence database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0392.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: albumin; mortality; necrotizing fasciitis
Online: 17 October 2018 (17:18:59 CEST)
Background: Hypoalbuminemia is known to be associated with adverse outcome in critical illness. In this study, we attempted to identify if hypoalbuminemia on emergency department (ED) arrival a reliable predictor for in-hospital mortality in necrotizing fasciitis (NF). patients. Method: A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan between March 2010 and March 2018. Blood samples were collected in the ED upon arrival, and serum albumin levels were determined. we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. All collected data were statistically analyzed. Result: Of the 707 NF patients, 40 (5.66%) died in the hospital. The mean serum albumin level was 3.1 ± 0.9 g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (2.8± 0.7 g/dL vs. 3.5 ± 0.8 g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (odds ratio[OR] 0.92, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.88–0.96, P <0.001). The area under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) for in-hospital survival was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 66%, 74%, 33%, 88%, 2.25 and 0.48, respectively. High sensitivity (96%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0 g/dL and high specificity (91%) was shown at level of 2.5 g/dL. Conclusion: Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients with necrotizing fasciitis and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. NF patients with hypoalbuminemia on ED arrival should be closely monitored for signs of deterioration and consider early and aggressive intervention to prevent mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0433.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; Cohort; Mortality; Mexico
Online: 24 January 2023 (13:21:09 CET)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high prevalence of comorbidities in Mexico, as well as the disparities between public and private health subsystems, substantially contributed to the severe impact it had in the country. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare risk factors present at admission for mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A 2-year retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 was conducted at a private tertiary care center. The study population consisted of 1,258 patients with a median age of 56 ± 16.5 years, of whom 1,093 recovered (86.8%) and 165 died (13.1%). In the univariate analysis, older age (p <0.001), comorbidities such as hypertension (p <0.001) and diabetes (p <0.001), signs and symptoms of respiratory distress, and markers of acute inflammatory response were significantly more frequent in non-survivors. The multivariate analysis showed that older age (p <0.001), the presence of cyanosis (p 0.005) and previous myocardial infarction (p 0.032) were independent predictors for mortality. In the studied cohort, risk factors present at admission associated with an increased risk of death were older age, cyanosis and a previous myocardial infarction, which can be used as valuable predictors for patients’ outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients attended on a private tertiary hospital in Mexico.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0222.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Tuberculosis; Mortality; Indigenous; Logistic Regression
Online: 11 August 2022 (12:00:20 CEST)
Aim. To identify factors associated with mortality with tuberculosis diagnosis in the indigenous population in Peru 2015-2019. Methods. Case-control study nested in a retrospective cohort, using the registry of persons belonging to indigenous peoples of the National Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Strategy of the Ministry of Health of Peru. A descriptive analysis was applied, and then bivariate and multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between the variables and the outcome (live-deceased), the results were presented as OR with their respective 95% confidence intervals. Results. The mortality rate of the total indigenous population of Peru was 1.75 deaths per 100,000 indigenous people diagnosed with TB. The community of Kukama kukamiria - Yagua reported 505 (28.48%) individuals. The final logistic model showed that indigenous men (OR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.001-3.7), with a history of HIV prior to TB (OR=16.7; 95% CI: 4.7-58.7) and indigenous people in old age (OR=2.95; 95% CI: 1.5-5.7), are factors associated with a greater chance of dying from TB. Conclusions. It is important to reorient health services among indigenous populations, especially those related to improving the timely diagnosis and early treatment of TB-HIV co-infection, to ensure comprehensive care for this population, considering that they are vulnerable groups.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0617.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: COVID-19; India; mortality data
Online: 25 May 2021 (15:06:40 CEST)
The harrowing second wave of COVID-19 in India has led to much discussion over the quality and timeliness of reporting of deaths attributed to the pandemic. In this brief report, we aim to present the existing evidence, as well as the broader complexities surrounding the mortality burden of COVID-19 in India. This article sheds light on the following epidemiological issues: (1) general and India-specific challenges to COVID-19 death reporting, (2) latest COVID-19 mortality estimates in India as of May 16, 2021, (3) the apparent scale of uncaptured COVID-19 deaths, and (4) the role of disaggregated historic mortality trends in quantification of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. We conclude with a set of high-level policy recommendations for improving the vital surveillance system and tracking of causes of death in India. We encourage direct efforts to integrate health data and indirect strategies for cross-validation of registered deaths. Such system-wide advances would drastically aid epidemiological research efforts and strengthen India’s position to overcome future public health crises.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0114.v2
Subject: Keywords: Pancreaticoduodenectomy; feeding jejunostomy; morbidity; mortality
Online: 5 September 2020 (06:33:29 CEST)
Aims and objectives: The primary aim of our study was to evaluate morbidity and mortality following feeding jejunostomy in pancreaticoduodenectomy compared to the control group. We also evaluated individual complications like delayed gastric emptying; post operative pancreatic fistula, superficial and deep surgical site infection. Material and Methods: The study was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement and MOOSE guidelines. Heterogeneity was measured using Q tests and I2.the random-effects model was used. Results: Four studies including Total of 1639 patients were included in the analysis. Total 843 patients were included in Feeding jejunostomy group and 796 patients included in control group without feeding jejunostomy. Over all morbidity was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. (P = 0.001). There was no significant difference between both the groups. (P=0.07). Delayed gastric emptying was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. [P=0.021]. There was no significant difference in development of pancreatic fistula between the two groups. Deep surgical site infection was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. (P=0.013). Hospital stay was significantly more in feeding jejunostomy group (p<0.0001). There was no significant difference between readmission; TPN requirement and time to start oral feed. Conclusion: Feeding jejunostomy seems to be associated with increased morbidity and increased length of stay.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0068.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Climate; Elderly; Mortality; Meteorological Variables
Online: 3 August 2020 (09:56:17 CEST)
With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0672.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: aging; telomeres; senescence; mortality; disease
Online: 28 July 2020 (10:07:22 CEST)
The last 20 years have seen a surge in scientific activity and promising results in the study of aging and longevity. Many researchers have focused on telomeres, which are composed of a series of TTAGGG repeat nucleotide sequences at the ends of each chromosome. Measurements of the length of these telomere strands show that they decrease in length with increasing age, leading many authors to propose that when the length of these telomere strands decreases sufficiently, the cells enter into a state of replicative senescence, eventually leading to disease and death. These ideas are supported by evidence that short telomere length is correlated with increased mortality. In this paper, we extend this idea to make an actual calculation of the predicted mortality rate caused by short telomere length induced senescence (STLIS). We derive a simple equation for the mathematical relationship between telomere length and mortality rate. Using only 3 parameters based on telomere length measurement data of Canadians, we have calculated both the magnitude and the age dependence of the mortality rate, for both men and women. We show that these calculated data are in good quantitative agreement with the actual number of Canadians that die. This agreement provides strong evidence (but not proof) that the mechanism of STLIS plays an important role in the major diseases of aging (e.g., cardiovascular disease, many cancers, and diabetes mellitus) which dominate human mortality. This result represents significant progress in our understanding the factors behind the cause of aging.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0280.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: coffee; stomach neoplasms; incidence; mortality
Online: 17 May 2020 (03:18:01 CEST)
Background: Coffee is the second most popular drink in the worldwide, and it has different components with antioxidant and antitumor properties. The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between coffee consumption and the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in the main consuming countries. Methods: An observational study was performed. Dataset of coffee consumption was obtained from WorldAtlas, and incidence and mortality rates from GLOBOCAN database. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated. All statistical analysis were performed using STATA software. Results: A total of 25 countries were included in the study. There was a significant linear correlation between coffee consumption kg per person per year and an estimated age-adjusted incidence (r=0.5984, p=0.0016) and mortality (r=0.5877, p=0.0020). Conclusion: Coffee consumption could potentially have beneficial effects on incidence and mortality by stomach cancer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0161.v1
Online: 9 May 2020 (10:08:24 CEST)
Background: Corona virus disease was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China. Soon the corona virus disease has spread to many countries. World health organization has described the situation as Pandemic. By 12 March 2020, corona virus disease has affected 125 countries around the world. Corona virus was first confirmed in Iran on 19 February 2020. Objective: The aim of writing this small article is to determine the mortality rate of corona virus disease in different cities of Iran. This article will give readers an idea of different ways to control spread of corona virus disease in Iran. Methods: Author has collected the data of daily confirmed cases from different diagnostic centers and hospitals across the country from 19 February 2020 to 1 April 2020. Results: Mortality rate of corona virus disease is roughly 4%. Conclusions: Mortality rate could rise if COVID 19 infection is not controlled.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0350.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination; all-cause mortality; excess mortality; causal inferences; ecological fallacy; individualistic fallacy
Online: 21 February 2023 (03:49:52 CET)
We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality, i.e., mortality higher than before the pandemic. Analyses of 31 countries weighted by population size show that all-cause mortality during the first nine months of 2022 increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake; a one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105 percent (95% CI, 0.075-0.134). When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy. Also, the study shows that 2021 all-cause mortality was lower the higher the vaccination uptake, but this association became non-significant when controlling for alternative explanations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0281.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: IMR( Infant Mortality rate), MMR( Maternal Mortality rate), Equity, Social Empowerment, Marginalized , Social exclusion
Online: 21 June 2020 (16:39:41 CEST)
Introduction and Background: Bangladesh as a country could prove its development potential over the past several years with its thriving economic growth and also with a significant level of positive changes made possible in its significantly important health and social indicators including MMR, IMR, Child nutrition, fertility regulation, child survival and Infectious disease prevalence. 1,2,3 The country could make a commendable contribution in achieving Global development goal (MDG) at a significant level and also aiming to continue its effort to sustain that status quo and also making progressive changes consistently to be contributory to SDG goals and indicators towards positive development.2,3 Purpose: This lyrical critic is an attempt to uphold the facts and evidences embedded in social development reality where the implementations are in constant challenge with urgency, need and continuity. Methodology: A quick and intensive desk review and web search made to capture the insights from secondary data facts, stories, evidences, news features and the findings blended with personal insights and experiences. Finally, compilation of insights and views through a laid over narrative analytics and described in a descriptive lyrical format. Purposefully ignored the figure and quantity data reflection in the write up as this write up is considered more as a social development lyric rather than a scientific write up. Conclusion: Our diversified marginalized community people are of vital importance from a social inclusion and exclusion point of view, to look into this more deeply whether they are socially, epidemiologically, statistically, economic indicator wise fall into the embracing practice of our democracy and inclusion culture of addressing the marginalized. This posed our country in a very challenging situation, a dilemma in between morality vs reality, emotion vs equity, social response vs political standpoint and so on. With a long end history of community responsive and socially sensitive works within /among our generalized poor, poverty stricken and marginalized people group, where the sustainable and ethically driven, gender sensitive social empowerment is still a far cry! The diversity in nature always claims to add on beauty, tranquility and completeness towards the sense of Equity management, but it’s very true that this diversity word has a very opposite and different connotation while it is relevant to diversity in marginalization and appears in a more critical and complex dynamics to seek solution. Therefore, the ultimate empowerment of community specially the marginalized people remain entrapped into the social development process of enduring response in embracing urgency in community care where the right response may not get right weightage into the community development priority response and also the development actors priority agenda.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0226.v1
Subject: Biology, Other Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; nursing home; mortality
Online: 17 May 2022 (08:57:44 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been challenging for society, especially for those residing in long-term care facilities (LTCF). This study aimed to describe rates of infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 among older people and staff of LTCF in Minas Gerais (Brazil) and identify strategies to prevent and control the disease spread. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 164 LTCF (6,017 older people). Among the studied LTCF, 48.7% confirmed COVID-19 infection in older people, resulting in 39.6% hospitalization and 32.3% death among infected. Moreover, 68.9% of LTCF confirmed COVID-19 infection in the staff, with 7.3% hospitalization and 1.2% death. Preventive measures were identified and classified as organizational, infrastructure, hygiene items and personal protective equipment, and staff training against COVID-19. These measures showed strategies and barriers experienced in the daily routine of LTCF during the pandemic. LTCF in Brazil experienced challenges similar to observed worldwide. Results highlighted the importance of continuity and improvement of protective measures for older people in LTCF, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0108.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: comorbidity; sequence; all-cause mortality; medication
Online: 9 May 2022 (07:36:42 CEST)
Introduction: The presence of multiple comorbidities increases the risk of all-cause mortality, but the effects of the comorbidity sequence before the baseline date on mortality remained unexplored. This study investigated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) sequence on all-cause mortality risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This study included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications in public hospitals of Hong Kong between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2009 with follow-up until death or December 31st, 2019. Cox regression was used to identify comorbidity sequences predicting all-cause mortality in patients with different medication subgroups. Results: A total of 249291 patients (age: 66.0±12.4 years, 47.4% male) were included. At baseline, 7564, 10900 and 25589 patients had AF, HF and CHD, respectively. Over follow-up (3524±1218 days), 85870 patients died (mortality rate: 35.7 per 1000 person-years). Sulphonylurea users with CHD developed later, but insulin users with CHD developing earlier, in the disease course had lower mortality risks. Amongst insulin users with two of the three comorbidities, CHD with preceding AF (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.06, 95% CI: [2.60-3.61], p<0.001) or HF (HR: 3.84 [3.47- 4.24], p<0.001) had a higher mortality. In users of lipid-lowering agents with all three comorbidities, those with preceding AF had higher risk of mortality (AF-CHD-HF: HR: 3.22, [2.24-4.61], p<0.001; AF-HF-CHD: HR: 3.71, [2.66-5.16], p<0.001). Conclusion: The sequence of comorbidity development affects the risk of all-cause mortality to varying degrees in diabetic patients on different antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0292.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: Breakfast consumption; mortality; coronary diseases; obesity
Online: 29 April 2022 (08:20:22 CEST)
Epidemiological studies indicate that skipping breakfast as a universal behavior, may have adverse effects on cardiovascular diseases [CVDs}and metabolic diseases. However, eating breakfast regularly, may increase satiety, thereby reducing overeating later in the day which prevents weight gain. Recent studies indicate that skipping breakfast increases the risk of obesity, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary artery disease (CAD), and cardiovascular mortality as well as all-cause mortality. However, many studies also reported that regular taking of breakfast decreases the risk of CVDs and T2DM and all-cause mortality. Previous studies reported that heavy breakfast, in particular eating western diet may increase circadian rhythm of CVDs and sudden cardiac death. It seems that those who do not eat breakfast, they tend to eat refined and sweetened products, possibly, more in the night resulting in to greater risk of CVDs and T2DM. Breakfast skipping and eating in the night, may be associated with circadian misalignment in the central and peripheral clocks, leading to oxidative stress and inflammation. Increased systemic inflammation damages the adipocytes, beta cells of pancreas, endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells as well as neurons, which may produce dysfunction in these cells resulting in to related diseases. The beneficial effects of breakfast, may also be, at least in part, due to nutrient dense foods rather than time of eating. Eating regular breakfast, in particular rich in Indo-Mediterranean foods; vegetables, whole grains, fruits, spices and nuts may be protective against circadian increase in oxidative stress in the morning, resulting in to significant decline in the risk of CVDs and T2DM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0759.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: adherence; alcohol; morbidities; mortality; data linkage
Online: 31 March 2021 (11:23:38 CEST)
Objectives We tested the hypothesis that poor adherence is associated with a greater risk of alcohol-caused mortality and morbidities within the first year of discontinuing this medication. Materials and Methods Retrospective cohort study of 3319 individuals who received Acamprosate® in the East of Scotland in a 10-year period using a health informatics approach with record linkage of dispensing data, hospital utilization (SMR) and General Register Office of Scotland (GROS) data. Primary outcome was adherence between one to six months of initiating Acamprosate® medication. Secondary outcome was all cause morbidities and mortality. Results Of the total 3319 individuals identified, good adherence index of >80% was found in 59% of those prescribed Acamprosate® after three months and 6% after six months. There were significant linear trends of poorer adherence with increased risk of alcohol-caused mortality (HR1.2), medical morbidities especially neoplasm (HR 4.1|) and poisoning (HR 1.4) and psychiatric morbidities especially stress (HR 35.1), psychotic (HR 5.6) and neurotic disorders and directly alcohol induced conditions (7.4 HR) after adjustment for other factors within a one-year period of initiation of Acamprosate® treatment. Discussion and Conclusions Further exploratory studies using this digitalized approach should be encouraged in order to capture role of compliance to Acamprosate® and other types of medication that are known to reduce relapse into alcohol dependence and its direct relationship to mortality and morbidities in this population.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: htlv-1; mortality, ham/tsp; Brazil
Online: 13 November 2019 (10:40:50 CET)
BACKGROUND: During the natural history, the incidence HTLV-1 related diseases were 0.5% until 10% after decades of infection. Despite relative low lethality, previous study observed that HTLV-1 infection is associated with significantly increased mortality. For example, the incidence of ATLL and HAM/TSP, co-infections with HIV and HCV, parasitic co-infection with Strongyloides stercoralis may increase morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: Determine the mortality rate and its major variables as possible risk factors, analyzing the HTLV Clinic at Emilio Ribas Institute, a continuous open cohort of HTLV patients since 1997. METHODS: This cohort open cohort possesses new patients added at a rate of approximately 50 patients/year. There were 1100 HTLV-infected subjects identified by September 30th 2018. All clinical data including clinical and laboratory data, which have been updated on a regular basis over the last 22 years, were entered into a specific REDCap database. The Ethical Board of the IIER approved the protocol. RESULTS: Along 22 years of clinical care in the HTLV-out clinic, 727 HTLV-1-infected subjects and 248 HAM/TSP cases. Four-hundred sixty-eight patients of whom remaining under active follow up. The mean follow-up time of the cohort was 12 years. Twenty-seven patients died (median age of 51,5 years old). From this total, 13 was asymptomatic carriers and 14 HAM/TSP subjects, 12 of asymptomatic and seven HAM/TSP possess co-infected with HIV or/and HCV. Other seven presented HAM/TSP without co-infection, and all was female, and sepsis was the majority cases the majority of cases of sepsis were related to infection of the urinary tract (p=0.058) and to ulcers of decubitus (p=0.021), and it was associated with risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mortality rate for HAM-TSP patients was six percent. The mean life expectancy in Brazil is about 78 years in 2018, twenty-two years higher than HAM/TSP patients without any other coinfection. This study highlights the possibility of higher death risk among HTLV-1-infected patients and HAM/TSP subjects in Brazil, and identified some risk factors for this outcome. Also, these patients may possess higher risk for morbidity, usually urinary tract infections and decubitus scars, which could increase risk for death.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0188.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; HIV; Mortality; cytokine release syndrome
Online: 13 May 2022 (09:47:23 CEST)
Introduction: Established predictors for COVID-19 related mortalities are diverse, with cytokine release syndrome (CRS), a key intermediator to the case fatalities being dominant and multi-faceted. The impact of these several risk factors on coronavirus mortality have been previously reported in several meta‐analyses limited by small sample sizes and premature data, and CRS not fully being accounted for. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the evidence on the risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality with HIV serostatus using published data, and a meta-regression to account for possible covariates. Method: Electronic databases including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, COVID-19 Research Database, and Scopus, were systematically searched till 30th February, 2022. All human studies were included irrespective of publication date or region. Twenty-two studies with a total of 19,783,097 patients detailing COVID-related mortality and eleven with a total of 2,005,274 were included. To pool the estimate, a random-effects model with risk ration as the effect measure was used. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated followed by meta-regression. The trial was registered (CRD42021264761) on the PROSPERO register. Results: The findings were consistent in stating the contribution of HIV infection for COVID-19 related CRS and mortality. The cumulative COVID-19 related mortality and CRS was 110270 (0.6%) and 48863 (2.4%) with total events of 2010 (3.6%), 108260 (0.5%) and 837(4.6%), 48026 (2.4%) among HIV-positive and negative persons respectively. HIV infection showed an increased risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality [RR= 1.48, 95% CI (1.16, 1.88) (P=0.002)] and [RR =1.19, 95% CI (1.02 -1.39) (P=0.00001)] respectively, both with substantial heterogeneity (I2 > 80%). The true effects size in 95% of all the comparable populations fell between 0.64 to 2.22 and 0.67 to 3.29 for mortality and CRS respectively. MC studies and COVID-19 mortality with HIV infection showed a significant association [RR = 1.305, 95% CI (1.092 -1.559) (P = 0.003)], similar to studies conducted in America (RR = 1.422, 95% CI 1.233–1.639) and South Africa (RR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.052–1.198). HIV infection showed a risk for ICU admission [(P=0.00001) (I² = 0%)] and mechanical ventilation [(P=0.04) (I² = 0%)] as parameters of CRS. Furthermore, risk of COVID-19 related CRS is influenced by the year a study was conducted (R² = 0.55) and the region (R² = 0.11) same for mortality (R² = 0.60). The variance proportion explained by covariates was significant for CRS (I² = 86.5%, Q = 73.99, df = 10, P = 0.0000) (R² = 0.78) and mortality (I² = 87.5%, Q = 168.02, df = 21, p = 0.0000) (R² = 0.67). Conclusion: Our updated meta-analysis indicated that HIV infection was significantly associated with an increased risk for both COVID-19 – CRS and mortality, which might be modulated by regions, study setting and year. Risk for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation are the key indicators of CRS. We believe the updated data further anchoring CRS will contribute to more substantiation of the findings reported by similar earlier studies (Dong et al., 2021; K. W. Lee et al., 2021; Massarvva, 2021; Mellor et al., 2021; Ssentongo et al., 2021)
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: Aged; Alanine Transaminase; Brain infarction; Frailty; Mortality
Online: 19 March 2021 (08:09:52 CET)
(1) Background: Extremely low alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels are be-ing recognized as a risk factor of increasing mortality in the elderly in relation to frailty. In the elderly, both frailty and ischemic stroke are not only common, but also associated with mortality. This study aimed to investigate whether extremely low ALT levels increase the all-cause mortality rate in the elderly after ischemic stroke. (2) Methods: A retrospective review was performed on 901 patients with ischemic stroke admitted to a university-affiliated hospital between February 2014 and April 2019. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to determine whether extremely low ALT lev-els are an independent risk factor of mortality in elderly patients after ischem-ic stroke. (3) Results: This study enrolled 323 older adults (age ≥65 years) who were first diagnosed with ischemic stroke. The mean age of the participants was 76.5 ± 6.6 years, mean survival time was 37.1 ± 20.4 months, and the num-ber of deaths was 96 (29.7%). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analy-sis revealed that the risk factors for all-cause mortality in the elderly after is-chemic stroke were age, initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, serum creatinine, and extremely low ALT level (<10 U/L) at the time of diag-nosis (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.243, 95% confidence interval: 1.945–5.408; P < 0.001) (4) Conclusions: Extremely low ALT level at the time of diagnosis (<10 U/L) is an independent risk factor that increases the mortality rate in the el-derly after ischemic stroke.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Breastfeeding; Infants; Bangladesh; Morbidity; Adolescent mothers; Mortality
Online: 25 January 2021 (10:04:09 CET)
Optimal breastfeeding practices among mothers have been proven to have health and economic benefits, but evidence on breastfeeding practices among adolescent mothers in Bangladesh is limited. Hence, this study aims to estimate breastfeeding indicators and factors associated with selected feeding practices. The sample included 2554 children aged 0-23 months of adolescent mothers aged 12-19 years from four Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys collected between 2004 and 2014. Breastfeeding indicators were estimated using World Health Organization indicators. Selected feeding indicators were examined against potential confounding factors using univariate and multivariate analyses. Only 42.2% of adolescent mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour of birth, 53% exclusively breastfed their infants, predominant breastfeeding was 17.3%, and 15.7% bottle-fed their children. Parity (2-3 children), older infants and adolescent mothers who made postnatal check-up after two days were associated with increased exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) rates. Adolescent mothers aged 12-18 years and who watched television were less likely to delay breastfeeding initiation within the first hour of birth. Adolescent mothers who delivered at home (adjusted OR=2.63, 95% CI:1.86, 3.74) and made postnatal check-up after two days (adjusted OR=1.67, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.30) were significantly more likely to delay initiation breastfeeding within the first hour of birth. Younger infants, adolescent mothers living in Barisal region and who listened to radio reported increased odds of predominant breastfeeding and increased odds for bottle-feeding included male infants, an infant aged 0-5 months, Adolescent mothers who had eight or more antenatal clinic visits and richest wealth quintiles. In order for Bangladesh to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 and 3 by 2030, breastfeeding promotion programmes should discourage bottle-feeding among adolescent mothers from richest households and promote early initiation of breastfeeding especially among adolescent mothers who delivered at home and had late postnatal check-up after delivery
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v2
Subject: Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups
Online: 15 January 2021 (12:09:12 CET)
Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0218.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; spatial analysis; hexbin map
Online: 12 January 2021 (11:07:47 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused ~ 2 million fatalities. Significant progress has been made in advancing our understanding of the disease process, one of the unanswered questions, however, is the anomaly in the case/mortality ratio with Mexico as a clear example. Herein, this anomaly is explored by spatial analysis and whether mortality varies locally according to local factors. To address this, hexagonal cartogram maps (hexbin) used to spatially map COVID-19 mortality and visualise association with patient-level data on demographics and pre-existing health conditions. This was further interrogated at local Mexico City level by choropleth mapping. Our data show that the use of hexagonal cartograms is a better approach for spatial mapping of COVID-19 data in Mexico as it addresses bias in area size and population. We report sex/age-related spatial relationship with mortality amongst the Mexican states and a trend between health conditions and mortality at the state level. Within Mexico City, there is a clear south, north divide with higher mortality in the northern municipalities. Deceased patients in these northern municipalities have the highest pre-existing health conditions. Taken together, this study provides an improved presentation of COVID-19 mapping in Mexico and demonstrates spatial divergence of the mortality in Mexico.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0003.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Heart Failure; Acute Kidney Injury; Prognosis; Mortality.
Online: 2 November 2020 (08:09:49 CET)
Introduction: Decompensated heart failure (HF) is a complex and debilitating syndrome, which constitutes a severe emergency condition with high morbidity and mortality. The kidneys play fundamental roles in the pathophysiology of HF and, in the context of decompensations, acute kidney injury (AKI) has a bilateral cause-and-effect relationship, which can significantly worsen prognosis. However, the interaction between AKI and decompensated HF is poorly understood. Objective: This study aimed to assess the occurrence of AKI in patients hospitalized due to decompensated HF and to analyze its prognostic impact during hospitalization. Methods: Prospective single-center observational study that included patients hospitalized due to decompensated HF in a tertiary-level teaching hospital, conducted between July 2017 and January 2020. Patients who developed AKI during hospitalization were compared with those who did not develop it, until hospital discharge or death. AKI was defined as a serum creatinine increase greater than or equal to 0.3 mg/dl in 48 hours, a 1.5-fold increase in baseline creatinine in seven days or urinary volume <0.5 ml/kg/h during six hours, according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria. The endpoints analyzed were death, need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and length of hospital stay. The Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney and unpaired student t tests were used. Results: Ninety-nine patients were included, with a mean age of 65.4 ± 14 years, of which 47 (47.5%) were male and 52 (52.5%) were female. Reduced ejection fraction was observed in 77.8% of patients, whilst 22.2% had a diagnosis of HF with preserved EF. The decompensation clinical classifications were: dry and warm = 7 (7.1%), wet and warm = 72 (72.7%), wet and cold = 15 (15.1%) and dry and cold = 5 (5.1%). The average left ventricular ejection fraction was 38.3% ± 15. AKI ocurred in 22 patients (22.2%). Comparison between patients who evolved with and without AKI showed higher mortality (36.4% vs 10.4%, p = 0.004) and the need for IMV (54.5% vs 13%, p = 0.0001) in the first group. There was no significant difference regarding the length of in-hospital stay (22.9 ± 19 vs 18.8 ± 16 days, p = 0.26). Conclusions: The occurrence of AKI was frequent in patients with decompensated HF requiring hospitalization, affecting approximately one out of five patients. This complication was significantly associated with increased mortality and the need for IMV during hospitalization.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0021.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Pioglitazone; DPP4-inhibitor; ESRD; Cardiovascular outcome; Mortality
Online: 1 October 2020 (15:41:50 CEST)
While pioglitazone reduces insulin resistance and hepatic gluconeogenesis effectively in patients with T2DM, these benefits remained controversial in patients with ESRD. We compared MACCEs and mortality (overall, infection-related, and MACCE-related) of pioglitazone to that of DPP4-inhibitors in patients with T2DM and ESRD. From Taiwan’s national health insurance database, 647 pioglitazone users and 6080 DPP4-inhibitors users between April 1st, 2006 and December 31th, 2016 were followed from the 91th date after the ESRD certification till study outcomes, independently; withdraw from the NHI program, death, or Dec. 31th, 2017. After weighting, risks of MACCEs (10.48% vs 12.62% per person-years, [HR]: 0.85, 95% [CI]: 0.729–0.985) and all-cause mortality (12.86% vs 13.22% per person-years, [HR]: 0.88, 95% [CI]: 0.771–0.995) are significantly lower in pioglitazone group. Subgroup analysis found lower MACCEs risk in the pioglitazone users without insulin therapy (6.44% vs 10.04% [HR]: 0.59, 95% [CI]: 0.42–0.82) and lower MACCEs related death (2.76% vs 3.84% [HR]: 0.61, 95% [CI]: 0.40–0.95) in the pioglitazone group with dyslipidemia, when comparing with DPP4-inhibitors users. Pioglitazone is associated with lower all-cause mortality and MACCEs in diabetic patients with ESRD, compared to DPP4-inhibitors. These benefits were further significant in the non-insulin users and patients with dyslipidemia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0487.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Phylogenetics; mortality
Online: 21 September 2020 (03:35:15 CEST)
The age-related mortality and morbidity risk of COVID-19 has been considered speculative without enough scientific evidence. This study aimed to collect more evidence on the association between patient age and risk of severe disease state and/or mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Genomic dataset along with metadata (3608 samples) retrieved from GISAID from different geographical regions were grouped into 10 age groups (0-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, 81-90, 91-100 years) as well as high-risk or low-risk according to patient clinical status. Genomic sequences were aligned and analyzed using MAFFT and FASTTREE to build a phylogenetic tree in order to identify age-risk associations based on phylogenetic clustering. Case fatality rates (CFR), as well as the Odds ratio (OR) for high-risk outcomes, were calculated for different age groups. Results revealed that individuals aged between 25-50 years have the best immune response to the infection. On the other hand, disease fatality was higher in patients aging above 50 years. We created an application to calculate the OR of being at high risk given a certain age threshold from GISAID datasets. OR values increased between ages 1-10 years (1.271) and 11-20 years (1.313) but reduced at age range 21-30 years (1.290) and increased again for 61-70 years (2.465). CFR calculated for each of the age groups had peak values at 90-100 years (26.8%) and the lowest at 0-10 years (0%). The CFR for ages above 50 years was about twice greater (11.6%-26.8%) than that for ages below (0-6.6%). The phylogenetic analysis revealed that the majority of samples obtained from India showed low-risk among different age groups and were defined as clade GH. Another cluster from Singapore visualization showed unfavorable patient outcome across several age groups and were classified under clade O. To conclude, this study analyses showed a variety of age-risk associations. As scientists from different countries upload more genomes to globally shared databases, more evidence will reinforce mortality risk associations in COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0356.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Gastroenterology Keywords: SSI; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; GASTROINTESTINAL; HPB; HOSPITAL STAY
Online: 16 September 2020 (08:38:38 CEST)
Aims: Primary AIM of the study was to evaluate effect of prolonged hospital stay on Surgical site infections We also evaluated effect of prolonged hospital stay on overall morbidity in Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery as secondary outcome. Methods: We retrospectively analysed all the patients who underwent gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary surgery between April 2017 to March 2020. On our analysis we found mean hospital stay in patient who did not develop SSI and/or morbidity was 4 days (Total hospital stay) vs 6 days who developed morbidity (hospital stay before diagnosis of SSI or diagnosis or morbid event). Based on this to avoid selection bias, we did 1:1 propensity score analysis between patients who had 4 or less than hospital stay vs patients who had 5 or more hospital stay before diagnosis of surgical site infection and/or morbid event. We took all the preoperative and intraoperative factors like Age, sex, malignant disease, ASA score, CDC grade of surgery, open or laparoscopic surgery, HPB surgeries, colorectal surgeries, Upper Gastrointestinal surgeries and small intestinal surgeries as covariates. We used nearest neighbor matching protocol with a calipher of 0.2. Cases were not reusable after matching. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 23. Results: We included 348 patients operated between April 2017 and March 2020 in our analysis. After 1:1 propensity score matching 58 patients included in study arm (prevent hospital stay more than 4 days) and 56 patients in control arm. Both groups were comparable with regard to Age, Sex, Surgery for malignant disease, ASA score, CDC grade of surgery, HPB surgeries, Small intestinal surgeries, Colorectal surgeries, upper gastrointestinal surgeries, intraoperative blood product requirement, intraoperative hypotension or any other event, operative time. Prolonged hospital stay (> 4 days) was significantly associated with surgical site infections (p<0.0001), morbidity (p=0.001). Open surgeries were associated with prolonged hospital stay. (p=0.032). Conclusion: Prolonged Hospital stay is associated with increase surgical site infection and morbidity in Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0143.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: chronic kidney disease; low socioeconomic status; mortality
Online: 6 August 2020 (09:46:30 CEST)
Background: To examine the association between income levels and mortality rates in patients with chronic kidney disease. Methods: We analyzed data obtained from 3,172 patients with chronic kidney disease obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance claims database (2003–2009). Each patient was monitored until December 2010 or until death, whichever came first. Individual income was estimated from the national health insurance premium. Information on mortality was obtained from the Korean National Statistical Office. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare mortality rates between different income groups after adjusting for possible confounding risk factors. Results: A low income was significantly associated with a high mortality rate after adjusting for covariates (adjusted HR 1.298 [1.082–1.556]). In addition, dialysis patients who had low incomes were more likely to have higher mortality rates compared to those in dialysis patients who had high incomes (adjusted HR 1.528 [1.122–2.082]). Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that chronic kidney disease patients with low incomes have the highest mortality risk. Promotion of targeted policies and priority health services for patients with low incomes may help reduce the mortality rate in this vulnerable group.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0061.v1
Subject: Keywords: Mortality; Hepatobiliary: Surgery; Surgical critical care; Complications
Online: 3 August 2020 (01:04:55 CEST)
Aims and Objectives: Our primary aim was to study association between nonsurgical techniques related complications and mortality and our secondary aim was to determine factors responsible for non surgical technique related complications. Material and Methods: All gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary procedures performed in last 3 years have been evaluated retrospectively. Nonsurgical procedure related postoperative complications were defined as perioperative complications nonrelated to surgical procedures or techniques and related to patients’ physiological health or comorbidities. To avoid selection bias in attempt to evaluate effect of non-surgical procedural related complication on mortality, we did 1:1 propensity score matching analysis with nonsurgical technique related complications as dependent factor. Propensity scores were calculated using logistic regression. Pre operative confounding factors like age, sex, American society of Anesthesia score (ASA), emergency surgery, type of surgeries like HPB surgeries, Upper gastrointestinal surgeries, small bowel surgeries, colorectal surgeries, hernia surgeries, open or laparoscopic surgeries were entered in model as covariates. We used nearest neighbor matching protocol with a calipher of 0.2. Cases were not reusable after matching. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 23. Results: Total 348 patients underwent various abdominal surgeries (gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary) in our department from April 2017 to March 2020. Total 24 patients developed nonsurgical technique related complications. Before Propensity score matching nonsurgical technique related complications were significantly higher in Upper Gastrointestinal surgeries (gastric and esophageal), emergency surgeries, Open surgeries, in patients who developed intraoperative hypotension, patients operated for malignancies, patients with higher ASA grades, patients in whom more blood products were used and patient who had more operative time. ASA scores independently predicted nonsurgical technique related complications. [P=0.001. Odds Ratio 3.955 (95% C.I.) 1.774-8.813)]. After Matching 24 patients patients were included in nonsurgical complication related complication group and they were compared with 23 matched controls. After matching also nonsurgical procedural related complications were significantly associated with mortality. (p< 0.0001). No intraoperative factors like intraoperative hypotension, blood product requirement, operative time predicted non-surgical technique related complication. Surgery related complications were not associated with mortality after matching. Conclusion: Nonsurgical technique related complications are associated with significant increase risk of mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0308.v5
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: Covid-19; SARS-Cov-2; Mortality rate; Cancer; Cardiovascular disease; Respiratory disease; Diabetes; Kidney diseases; April; May
Online: 3 June 2020 (05:49:12 CEST)
Covid-19 has given a halt to all the activities in the world. Europe was most affected, followed by the United States of America. It has taken more than 350000 lives until now. In this study, we have assessed the severity of Covid-19 by analyzing the mortality rate of Covid-19 and other chronic diseases. The Covid-19 data and “death rate” data caused by other diseases were downloaded from the world health organization (WHO) website. A normalized method was used to see the mortality rate of Covid-19 in comparison to other diseases. The deaths caused by Covid-19 in April 2020 have overtaken the average number of deaths caused by Cancer, Cardiovascular diseases, and other diseases in Belgium, the United Kingdom (UK), Spain, France, and Ireland. Covid-19 was found to be strongly correlated with non-communicable respiratory diseases and Cancer with correlation coefficients 0.73 and 0.67 respectively. The severity of Covid-19 in the United States of America (USA) was moderate. The severity of Covid-19 in Asian countries was found to be low. Europe showed the highest diversity in the mortality rate of Covid-19. On average, except for a few European countries, Cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and non-communicable respiratory diseases were still more lethal and caused more deaths than Covid-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0154.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pediatrics Keywords: pediatric drug poisoning; emergency department; corrosive; mortality
Online: 11 February 2020 (15:57:47 CET)
Background: Poisoning constitutes an important part of morbidity and mortality among environmental emergencies that can be prevented, frequent in childhood, requiring rapid diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed was to examine the epidemiological, clinical and therapeutic characteristics of drug and corrosive poisonings in terms of children. Materials and Methods: Between January 2010 and December 2018, 1678 patients between the ages of 1-16 who applied to the emergency department with drug and corrosive poisoning were included in the study. The patients were divided into three groups as 1-5, 6-11 and over 12 years of age, and the substances with known pharmacological agents were divided into 10 groups. The Zargar Classification (7) was used to determine the degree of damage caused by corrosive substances in the esophagus. Results: The mean age of the patients was 8.32 ± 3.23 years (1-15 years). The girl/boy ratio of the cases was 1.18 / 1 and 54.3% were girls. 18.9% of the cases were under five years of age, 61% were between 6-11 years and 20% were older than 12 years. 94.6% of the patients were poisoned by drugs and 5.4% of them were poisoned due to non-drug reasons. Accidental poisoning was most commonly seen in children aged 6-11 and suicides were seen in children older than 12 years. It was found that 62.2% of the poisonings were accidental and 37.8% were suicidal. The most common causes of poisoning were analgesics and paracetamol exposure as a pharmacological agent. Mortality was found to be most common in 1-5 years age group and accidental poisonings. Accidental poisoning was common in girls and suicidal poisoning was common in boys. Grade 3 damage was found endoscopically in all of the mortalities due to corrosive substances. Conclusion: It was found that accidental poisoning was observed in children under five years of age, suicides were observed in children older than 12 years and the most important cause of mortality was due to corrosive substances. Cause-specific rapid diagnosis and treatment will contribute to the reduction of morbidity and mortality.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0381.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Epidemiology; melioidosis; infectious disease; mortality; risk factors; transmission
Online: 21 December 2022 (03:42:32 CET)
Melioidosis, or Whitmore's disease, is an infectious disease initiated by a bacteria known as Burkholderia pseudomallei. This bacteria is commonly found in contaminated soil and water. In Malaysia, the mortality from melioidosis infection was reported to be higher than in other infectious diseases. The research on melioidosis is still limited in Malaysia but slightly increasing. The article's objective was to seek all the melioidosis research related to mortality in Malaysia. The information from the selected papers was then abstracted into two sections; Section 1: Review of literature and Section 2: Findings on mortality from melioidosis in Malaysia. In Section 1, the information on transmission and clinical features of melioidosis, demographic, severity of melioidosis, a clinical signs of melioidosis, diagnosis of melioidosis, management of melioidosis, the economic burden of melioidosis, and incidence of mortality from melioidosis were discussed in this paper. Meanwhile, in Section 2, the findings on mortality of melioidosis in Malaysia were discussed according to eight published articles. It is important to manage patients with melioidosis with appropriate treatment and management to reduce severe complications, high fatality rate, and relapse. More published research on melioidosis will provide input to the clinicians on a more detailed understanding of how to improve the diagnosis of melioidosis and the prognosis factors of this disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0321.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; nursing home; geriatric; incidence; mortality; epidemiology
Online: 21 October 2022 (07:16:52 CEST)
Objectives: To analyze cumulative incidence and mortality by COVID-19 in the different types of nursing homes, in the first and second wave.Methods: Data source: Transparency portal of the Generalitat de Catalunya, official COVID-19 register of all Catalan nursing homes (from March to December 10, 2020). Variables: Affectation of disease and mortality by COVID-19 in geriatric centers in Catalonia, stratified by size of center and type of management. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, IBMTMSPSS® v.20.Results:N = 1,057 residences (63,682 beds, average = 60.48). 52% have <50 beds, 42.8% between 50-150 beds, and 5%> 150 beds. COVID-19: Cumulative incidence: 21,370 (confirmed + suspicious); mortality: 5,010 (confirmed + suspicious).233 residences did not register COVID-19 patients (22%) and 636 did not register COVID-19 deaths (60.2%).According to the type of supplier, the lowest incidence of COVID-19 was in non-accredited (36.2% without cases), then concerted / collaborators (19.3%) and own of the Generalitat de Catalunya (7.9 %, p = 0.000). The centers with the fewest deaths were the non-accredited (78% without deaths), followed by contracted / collaborators (56.8%) and those of the Generalitat de Catalunya (41.3%, p = 0.000).Depending on the size, no COVID-19 patients were registered: 168 centers <50 beds (30.5%); 64 of the 50-150 beds (14.2%); and 1 of the> 150 beds (1.9%) (p = 0.000). 395 of the <50 beds did not register deaths due to COVID-19 (71.8%), 232 of the 50-150 beds (51.3%), and 9 of the> 150 beds (17%) (p = 0.000).Discussion:Of the 1,057 centers analyzed, 22% did not register cases and in 60% there were no deaths from COVID-19.Residences without concert / collaboration with the Generalitat and with fewer beds showed a lower cumulative incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 during the first wave.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0582.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: under-five; mortality; demographic health survey data; Ethiopia
Online: 24 May 2021 (15:12:13 CEST)
Introduction: Over decades, much have been said and done regarding under-five mortality in Ethiopia. The country has been following the lead of sustainable development goals and UNICEF with its transformation plan targets. However, unless the efforts supported by status assessing studies, it might be difficult for the country to progress. Thus, the current study was directed to identify the prevalence and associated factors of under-five mortality in 2019. Methods: According to the study criteria, we extract and cleaned data in STATA v. 15.0. The data then weighted as per the sampling weight, primary sampling unit, and strata before analyzing in STATA 15.0. Data management consisted of descriptive (mean, standard deviation, and proportion or percent) and association statistics. We deliberated binary logistic regression for this analysis and we checked each variable at 0.25 p-values to include in the model. The final p-value to declare association was p <0.05 and AOR with 95% CI was also applied to describe the results. The data source was the Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey (EMDHS) 2019. EMDHS collected the data from 8,885 in a face-to-face manner with a 99% response rate. Results: From 5,527 numbers of weighted women with under-five analysed in this study, the proportion of under-five mortality was 277.23(5.02%). Factors like 2nd birth order 0.52(0.35, 0.79), 3rd-4th 0.49(0.28, 0.84), 1-2 ANC visits 0.24(0.12, 0.49, ANC visit three’ 0.14(0.07, 0.28), ANC visit four and above 0.22(0.14, 0.36), in marriage mother 0.43(0.19, 0.96), ‘1-2 under-five children 0.02(0.011, 0.03), and greater than three under-five children 0.007(0.0007, 0.004) were all negatively associated with under-five mortality rate. Conclusion: To obtain the exalted outcome out of this study, the government might need to increase antenatal care, women education, institutional delivery, and the modern contraceptive methods use through enhanced community mobilization, health education using community health workers, increasing access to essential cares of mothers and children, and the policy commitment for the issues related to family size, birth order, and birth interval.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0040.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Nursing Treatments; Nursing Collaboration; Postpartum Hemorrhage; Maternal Mortality
Online: 2 April 2021 (14:36:31 CEST)
Postpartum hemorrhage is a complication during the puerperium that requires serious management, because it risks on threatening the mother's death. Currently, postpartum hemorrhage is still the main cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in the world. There is a need for a fast, precise and comprehensive handling effort involving all elements, such as the entire health team including doctors-nurses and families. The form of nursing intervention in postpartum hemorrhage patients can be in the form of nursing treatment or collaboration. The purpose of this review literature is to identify nursing treatment and nursing collaboration in postpartum hemorrhage patients as an effort to prevent maternal death. The writing method uses literature reviews by summarizing 10 articles publicated in 2019, 2020 and 2021 in 4 search data bases including Sciencedirect, Scopus, Proquest and Thompson. The review guidelines used are based on Prisma and the Joanna Briggs Institutute. The level of eligibility is identified through the title, abstract, research methodology and full text. The results of the reviews found are presented in a narrative form. The results of the review study found that there were 10 articles on postpartum hemorrhage management measures both in the effort of snoring treatment and collaboration including: optimizing the competence of service providers based on E_Learning , foot reflexology since the 4th stage of labor, 800 mcg sublingual Misoprostol, the use of the Digital Postpartum Hemorrhage Management Device ( DPHMD), bilateral-contralateral cervical clamps, suction tube uterine tampons, bilateral hypogastric artery (BHAL), evaluation of Shock Index, Carbetocin drugs and administration of Tranexamic acid 1 gram IV within 10 minutes of vaginal delivery. The conclusion of this review literature is that nursing treatment and nursing collaboration are proven to have a positive impact as an effort to prevent death in postpartum hemorrhage patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0128.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: atypical presentation; COVID-19; frailty; mortality; older patients
Online: 6 January 2021 (15:30:48 CET)
Introduction: We describe the clinical features and inpatient trajectories of older adults hospitalized with COVID-19, and explore relationships with frailty. Methods: This retrospective observational study included older adults admitted as an emergency to a University Hospital who were diagnosed with COVID-19. Patient characteristics and hospital outcomes, primarily inpatient death or death within 14 days of discharge, were described for the whole cohort and by frailty status. Associations with mortality were further evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression (Hazard Ratio [HR], 95% Confidence Interval). Results: 214 patients (94 women) were included of whom 142 (66.4%) were frail with a median Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score of 6. Frail compared to non-frail patients were more likely to present with atypical symptoms including new or worsening confusion (45.1% vs 20.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to die (66% vs 16%, p=0.001). Older age, being male, presenting with high illness acuity and high frailty were independent predictors of death and a dose-response association between frailty and mortality was observed (CFS 1-4: reference; CFS 5-6: HR 1.78, 95% CI 0.90, 3.53; CFS 7-8: HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26, 5.24). Conclusions: Clinicians should have a low threshold for testing for COVID-19 in older and frail patients during periods of community viral transmission and diagnosis should prompt early advanced care planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0117.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: prostatic neoplasms/mortality; prostatic neoplasms/epidemiology; SEER program
Online: 5 August 2020 (09:46:50 CEST)
The real-world outcomes of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) are largely unexplored. We investigated the improvements in overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with de novo mPCa in latest years. The USA SEER Research Data (2000-2017) were analyzed using the SEER*Stat software. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were used. Patients with de novo mPCa were allocated to 3 cohorts based on year of diagnosis: A (2000-2003), B (2004-2010), C (2011-2014). Maximum follow-up was fixed to 5 years. Overall, 26434 patients were included. Age, race and metastatic stage significantly affected OS and CSS. After adjustment for age and race, patients in cohort C showed 9% reduced risk of death (HR:0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95], p<0.001) and 8% reduced risk of cancer-specific death (HR:0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95], p<0.001) compared to those in cohort A. After adjustment for age, race and metastatic stage, patients in cohort C showed an improvement in OS and CSS compared to cohort B (HR:0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.97], p=0.001 and HR:0.89 [95% CI, 0.85-0.92], p<0.001). Patients with M1c disease had a more pronounced improvement in OS and CSS compared with the other stages. No differences were found between cohort B and C. In conclusion, the prognosis of de novo mPCa remains poor with a median OS of 30 months and a median CSS of 35 months. Limited OS and CSS improvements were observed in latest years.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0662.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Sport Sciences & Therapy Keywords: sport; health; body mass index; obesity; morbidity; mortality
Online: 28 July 2020 (04:21:17 CEST)
The classic Body Mass Index, (BMI), developed in the 19th century by the Belgian mathematician Adolphe Quetelet  is an important indicator of the risk of death, of obesity, of negative health consequences, body fat percentage and of the shape of the body. While he BMI is assumed to indicate obesity in sedentary people and in people who do not practice sports, it is undisputed and a consensus among researchers  that Body Mass Index (BMI) is not a good indicator for obesity in people who developed their body through heavy physical work or sport but also in other segments of population such as those who appear to have a normal weight but in fact have a high body fat percentage and obese methabolism. The BMI also does not include all the variables essential for a health predictor. The BMI is not always a good predictor of metabolic disease, people who appear of healthy weight according to BMI have in some cases an obese metabolic syndrome. The BMI was developed as a law of natural sciences and “social physics” , as it was called then, before the middle of the 19th century, and it had been used from the 70s for medical purposes, to detect obesity and the risk of mortality . The BMI has a huge importance for modern society, affected by an obesity epidemic . BMI has applications in medicine, sport medicine, sport, fitness, bodybuilding, insurance, nutrition, pharmacology. The main limitation of the BMI is that it does not account for body composition including non fat body mass such as muscles, joints, body frame and makes no difference between fat and non fat components of the body weight. The body composition and the proportion of fat and muscles make a difference in health outcomes  …. Body composition makes a difference also in the level of sport performance for athletes of every level. In nearly two centuries since the Body Mass Index was developed, no formula had been successfully developed to account for body composition and make the difference between muscle and fat in a consistent way. This can be considered a longstanding open problem of major importance for society. The objective of this analysis is to develop new formulae taking into account the health implication of body composition measured through indirect, simple indicators and making the difference between muscles and fat, healthy and non healthy metabolism. The formulae developed in this article are the only formula to successfully generalize BMI and make this difference. I develop a direct generalization of BMI, in the mathematical and physiological sense to account for fat and fat free mass and muscles, small and large body frames. It is the first such generalization because the classic BMI can be determined as a particular case of my formulae in the strict mathematical and practical physiologic sense. No other formula generalized the BMI to make the difference between fat and a large frame and muscles has ever been published in nearly two centuries since the BMI formula had been developed. The formulae I developed explain and generalize the conclusions of a large number of highly cited empirical experiments cited in the reference section.  .. Most of the experimental proof I bring in support of my formulae and bodyweight quantification theory comes from many highly cited experimental research publications in medicine, sports medicine, sport science and physiology. My formulae explain also performance in decades of competitive sports and athletics
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0017.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: breast cancer; relative survival; excess hazard; excess mortality
Online: 3 June 2019 (10:08:23 CEST)
Measurement of breast cancer burden and identification of its influencing factors help in the development of public health policy and strategy against the disease. This study aimed to examine the variability of the excess mortality of female breast cancer patients in the North East Region of Peninsular Malaysia. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using breast cancer data from the Kelantan Cancer Registry between 2007 and 2011, and Kelantan general population mortality data. The breast cancer cases were followed up for five years until 2016. Out of 598 cases, 549 cases met the study criteria and were included in the analysis. Modelling of excess mortality was conducted using Poisson regression. Excess mortality of breast cancer varied according to age group (50 years old and below vs above 50 years old, Adj. EHR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.31, 4.09; P=0.004), ethnicity (Malay vs non-Malay, Adj. EHR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.96; P=0.008), and stage (stage III and IV vs. stage I and II, Adj. EHR: 5.75; 95% CI: 4.24, 7.81; P<0.001). In conclusion, public health policy and strategy aim to improve cancer survival should focus more on patients presented at age below 50 years old, Malay ethnicity, and at a later stage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0311.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: mini nutritional assessment; acute myocardial infarction; mortality; elderly
Online: 13 November 2018 (10:56:25 CET)
Background: Malnutrition is a frequent condition in the elderly and is associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. However, the impact of malnutrition among elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction has not been clarified yet. Methods and Results: We have enrolled 174 patients aged 65 years and over, admitted with the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who underwent to the evaluation of nutritional status by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and of mortality risk by Grace score 2.0. All-cause mortality was the outcome considered for this study. Over a mean follow-up of 24.5 ± 18.2 months, 43 deaths have been registered (24.3%). Non-survivors were more likely to be older, with worse GFR, lower SBP, lower albumin and MNA score, higher prevalence of Killip classification III-IV grade, and higher Troponin I levels. Multivariate Cox proportional analysis revealed that Grace score and MNA showed a significant and independent impact on mortality, (HR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.34–2.32 and HR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.42–0.73, respectively). Moreover, the clinical decision curve revealed a higher clinical net benefit when the MNA was included compared to the partial models without MNA. Conclusions: Nutritional status is an independent predictor of long-term mortality among elderly patients with AMI. MNA score in elderly patients with AMI may help prognostic stratification and identification of patients with/at risk of malnutrition in order to apply interventions to improve nutritional status and maybe survival in this population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0017.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: morbidity; mortality; network analysis; victims of internal conflict
Online: 2 November 2018 (05:11:13 CET)
Health differences across socioeconomic strata have always pointed out that poorer and minorities have higher mortality and morbidity than richer and majorities. This difference is exacerbated for particular populations such as the victims of ongoing armed conflicts, who are also much harder to quantify due to the conflict itself. This study applies network analysis to a combination of three large administrative records for the health system and mortality records in the province of Risaralda (Colombia) between 2011 and 2016. It produces the most common causes of morbi-mortality for both victims of violence and the poorest inhabitants of Risaralda, defined as those who qualify as recipients of subsidies from the Colombian welfare program called SISBEN in the categories of highest need. Both populations show high morbidity frequencies for non-communicable diseases such as Type II diabetes, hypertension, and hyperglyceridaemia, mostly associated with exposure to unhealthy lifestyles. Additionally, the mortality outcomes reflect the different lifestyles and medical treatments of both subpopulations. While the poorest replicate the same causes identified for morbidity, the victims of armed conflict die of additional causes including Type II diabetes, which reflects the even worse conditions they face.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0147.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Applied Physics Keywords: Intensive care unit, early cardiopulmonary rehabilitation, mortality, readmission
Online: 7 August 2018 (15:33:49 CEST)
Background: This study aims to compare the impact of early and late post-discharge cardiopulmonary rehabilitation on the outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) survivors. Methods: The retrospective, cohort study used a sub-database of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) that contains information of all patients had ICU admission between 2000 and 2012. Early group was defined if patients had received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation within 30 days after ICU discharge, and late group was define as if patients had received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation between 30 days and one year after ICU discharge. The end points were mortality and re-admission during the 3-year follow-up. Results: Among 2136 patients received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation after ICU discharge, 994 was classified early group and other 1142 patients were classified as late group. Overall, early group had a lower mortality rate (6.64% vs 10.86%, p = 0.0006), and a lower ICU readmission rate (47.8% vs 57.97%, p < 0.0001) than late group after 3-year follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that early group had significantly lower mortality (p=0.0009) and readmission rate (p<0.0001) than late group. In multivariate analysis, the risk of ICU readmission was found to be independently associated with late group (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.13-1.47). Conclusions: Early post-discharge cardiopulmonary rehabilitation among ICU survivors has the long-term survival benefit and significantly decreases the readmission rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0368.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Obstetrics & Gynaecology Keywords: proportion; near-misses; morbidity; mortality; public health institution
Online: 28 April 2018 (11:56:04 CEST)
Background: Maternal near-miss refers to a situation where a woman who nearly died but survived from severe life-threatening obstetric complications that occurred during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. It has been estimated that up to 9 million women survive obstetric complications every year. According to studies done around the world most mothers suffer from Near Miss due to the factors which includes, low socioeconomic status, patient related, health provider related, and health related and health institution related issues. Objectives: The objective of the study was to determine the proportion of maternal near misses and its associated factors in Selected Public Health Institutions of Keffa, Bench-Maji and Sheka Zones of South Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional state, South West Ethiopia, 2017. Methodology: Hospital based cross-sectional study design was employed and simple random sampling techniques (Lottery Method) was used to select the study institution and Systematic sampling technique was used to select 845 study participants every 5th interval. Information was collected by using pre-tested and structured interviewer administered questioner. Using SPSS version 21 software, descriptive statistics and bivariate logistic regression analysis was done and variables with p-value <0.2 were transferred to multivariate analysis and during Multivariate logistic regression analysis Variables with P-value < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant and AOR with 95% CI were used to control for possible confounders and to interpret the result. The results were summarized by tables, graphs and charts. Result: There were 5530 Live Births, 227 Sever Acute Maternal Morbidity cases of this 210 were Maternal Near-Misses cases and 17 were maternal deaths, 364 Maternal Near-Misses Events. The overall Maternal Near-Misses Proportion is 24.85%. The maternal Near-Misses outcome ratio was 41 cases/1,000 live births (LB); mortality ratio was 12.35cases/1 maternal death and 74.8/1000LB of mortality index. Parity, residence, distance of living place from hospital, ANC Follow up, duration of labor, and administrative related problems were found to have statistically significant associations. Conclusion: The proportion of Maternal Near-Misses is relatively high when compared to other regional studies and efforts should be done to lower the near-misses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0065.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: lee-carter; cairns-blake-dowd; mortality models; backtesting
Online: 8 May 2017 (07:38:50 CEST)
The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0047.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: SAINT model; SiZer; local linear fitting; mortality data
Online: 18 July 2016 (10:35:40 CEST)
The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0491.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: Cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Artificial Intelligence; Machine learning; Neural network
Online: 28 March 2023 (14:10:14 CEST)
Cancer is a major concern for people, and accurately predicting the probability of cancer incidence and mortality is an important research topic. With the development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, a new machine learning model has emerged. Using 72,591 pieces of data, including age, case count, population size, race, gender, site of onset, and year of discovery, we built a machine learning model. Through calculations, we found that the decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, and neural network achieved testing accuracies of 62.11%, 61.68%, 54.53%, 55.72%, and 63.10%, respectively. With the help of this model, scientists and policymakers can accurately predict future cancer incidence and mortality rates through databases, allowing them to make relevant policies (such as timely allocating doctors and medical resources) to better serve the people.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0134.v1
Subject: Biology, Forestry Keywords: planting depth; drought; freeze injury; herbivory; mortality; survival; insects
Online: 7 February 2023 (14:01:52 CET)
Artificial regeneration is successful when high performing seedlings are transported with care to the planting site, stored for a short period in an environment without desiccation or fungal growth, and are planted in a deep hole so roots are in contact with moist soil. One of the requirements for success is the ability to avoid common planting mistakes. Due, in part, to use of container stock plus an increase in rainfall, average 1st year survival of pine seedlings (89%) in the southern United States is about 15% greater now than 45 years ago. However, when survival is less than 50% six months after planting, some landowners seek reimbursement for their loss. Some assume poor seedling quality was the cause without realizing that anaerobic soils or sudden freeze events or shallow planting holes or pruning roots, a lack of rain, or underground insects can kill pines. With a focus on pines planted in the southern United States, we list non-nursery factors that have killed seedlings in North America, Africa and Europe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0365.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: SOFA; Impedance ratio; mortality; emergency department; Critical care; prediction
Online: 28 March 2022 (14:01:05 CEST)
Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 hours after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate mortality risk of initial SOFA score plus Imp-R. Harrell's C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84) respectively. The DCA showed that combining SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusion: The addition of Imp-R to baseline SOFA score at admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0434.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Ovarian Cancer; Epidemiology; Risk Factors; Screening; Diagnosis, Mortality; Incidence
Online: 28 October 2021 (11:41:05 CEST)
Abstract – Objective: Ovarian cancer, although not possessing a high incidence, is still the most common cancer-related deaths among women diagnosed with a gynecologic malignancy. The present study aims to highlight the epidemiology, risk factors of this disease and the significance of development of improved early detection strategies. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted using current published English studies by searching PubMed and Google Scholar. The search strategy included the keywords “ovarian cancer”, “diagnosis”, “risk factors”, “screening”, “epidemiology”. Studies on incidence and mortality were also considered. Case reports were excluded.Results: The highest incidence and mortality rates are observed in Central and Eastern Europe, while rates are relatively low in Asia and Africa. These rates are highest among the white population (14.3 per 100,000) and lowest among blacks (10 per 100,000) and Asians (9.7 per 100,000). The risk factors for this disease includes a family history, hormonal factors, nutrition and diet and physical activity, with some of them playing protective roles in reducing risk of ovarian cancers. There are no reliable screening methods for ovarian cancers. The most common diagnosis methods include a transvaginal ultrasound and a blood test to detect CA125 markers.Conclusions: The mortality rate of ovarian cancer is gradually increasing; thus, preventative measures are required to reduce lifetime risk of ovarian cancers and improve mortality rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0109.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: coagulation impairment; international normalised ratio; mortality; pulmonary embolism; thrombosis
Online: 5 July 2021 (15:36:32 CEST)
Pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality, therefore new parameters regarding risk stratification are sought after. In patients admitted for acute PE we investigated associations between the initial coagulation impairment, expressed by prothrombin time international normalised ratio (INR), and parameters reflecting PE severity. Furthermore, in-hospital, 30-day and long-term mortality were also evaluated. The analysis included 848 patients who were divided into two groups: with normal INR≤1.2, and elevated INR>1.2 (252 patients, 29.7%). The group with elevated INR presented higher incidence of tachycardia and lower systolic blood pressure, higher CRP, d-dimer, and NT-proBNP. This group presented higher estimated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (49 IQR39-62mmHg vs 43 IQR32-53mmHg, p<0.001) and shorter pulmonary artery acceleration time (65 IQR55-85ms vs 81 IQR63-102ms; p<0.001). Patients with elevated INR had more often a sPESI of 1 or higher (78%vs60%, p=0.003). Cox regression model revealed that age, leukocyte level, SBP, neoplasm, and INR are associated with higher risk of death (p<0.001). Finally, elevated INR was associated with higher in-hospital (13%vs3%; p<0.001), 30-day (19%vs6%; p<0.001), and long-term mortality (p<0.001). Summing up, elevated INR on admission is frequent in patients with PE, reflects worse clinical condition and is related to PE severity and prognosis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0258.v1
Subject: Biology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; interventions; growth curve; recovery; mortality; protective immunity
Online: 12 July 2020 (14:33:56 CEST)
COVID-19 is fast spreading around the globe in a highly contagious manner. The results from our study showed that after intervention with successive Lockdowns, there was marked decrease in the rate of COVID-19 cases, though there was sporadic volatility in number of COVID-19 cases due to some extrinsic factors. Concomitant with reduction in rate of COVID-19 there was gradual increase in doubling time of COVID-19, steady increase in number of discharged/recovered patients from COVID-19 reaching to ≥ 58% taking the entire Indian population into consideration. Another important aspect was consistent low mortality rate was accompanied by gradual increase in recovery rate of COVID-19 in the population. The possible implication of these results in the development of protective immunity in the population has been discussed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0376.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Clinical Neurology Keywords: urinary tract infection; multiple sclerosis; hospitalization and mortality rate
Online: 21 April 2020 (06:03:22 CEST)
Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating, chronic, inflammatory and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) with axonal degeneration, presenting a progressive and variable course. MS patients usually have complications, such as bladder dysfunction, presence of urinary symptoms and Urinary Tract infection (UTI), which is one of the three most common non-neurological complications in MS patients. Objective: Analyze the most diverse aspects of UTI in MS patients, focusing on risk factors, prevalence, hospitalization and mortality rates of UTIs in this group. Methods: A non-systematic review of articles published on PubMed in the last 10 years with the search terms "Urinary Tract Infection" AND "Multiple Sclerosis". Discussion: MS patients have a high UTI prevalence, mainly due to the occurrence of urinary disorders in these patients. The most common symptoms of UTI in MS patients are urinary urgency, polyuria, nocturia, urinary retention, and incontinence. Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae were the most found organisms and treatment is based on antibiotic therapy. Moreover, UTIs can precipitate outbreaks, worsen the disease, causing more damage and a severe neurological condition deterioration. Therefore, UTIs in this group are associated with a high hospitalizations rate and a high mortality rate. Conclusion: UTI represents a great risk and concern in MS patients. The high prevalence, hospitalization rate and mortality rate of UTI in MS is worrying, such as the cause-consequence relationship between UTIs and the use of corticosteroids in outbreaks. Therefore, it is important to be aware of a UTI in this group to make early diagnoses, adequate management, and new infections prevention. Thus, further studies are needed to thoroughly analyze each nuance of this important comorbidity for MS patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0345.v1
Subject: Keywords: mortality; Alzheimer's; education; life expectancy; mentality; level of development
Online: 29 May 2019 (08:39:53 CEST)
Study nature of epidemiological risk factors and patterns of distribution of mortality from Alzheimer's (DA) in 160 countries. An exponential Malthus model was used to construct adequate approximations of statistical data. Proportionality of average lifetime after 55 years (Δt) to education index (Ψ) was established. Ranking of countries by increasing value of ΨΔt showed that DA depends exponentially on ΨΔt and all countries can be divided into three groups in accordance with level of their economic development. In series of countries of low, medium and highly developed, their average values of DA increase exponentially. Growth of DA in developed countries in post-industrial epoch was explained by emergence of a new risk factor Alzheimer's of a mental nature. A mismatch of complexity or, on contrary, primitiveness of profession with level of mental development of worker, provokes development of chronic stress in him, fraught with pathologies of cognitive function metabolism in elderly. The geography of Alzheimer's disease was explained by the dependence of the human mentality on latitudinal climate change and on the chiral factor of a solar nature acting at night on a sleeping person.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0178.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: breastfeeding; mortality; obesity; overweight; stunting; wasting; education; life expectancy
Online: 20 March 2018 (10:29:32 CET)
Background: The preexistence of obesity with nutritional anaemia is becoming an increasing problem in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Much controversy exists around the role of continued breastfeeding in alleviating the health and survival consequences of these problems in the region. Aim: To examine trends and relationships of nutritional anaemia (NA) in women and children under-five years of age (CU5) with obesity and breastfeeding practices in the EMR. Methods: Data from regional database banks of WHO and UNICEF for anaemia in pregnant and non-pregnant women and CU5 from 22 countries in EMR were retrieved, compiled, and statistically analyzed. Breastfeeding indicators for timely first suckle (TFS), exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and continued breastfeeding for 12 (BFC12) and 24 months (BFC24), low-birth-weight (LBW), stunting, overweight, total fertility rates (TFR) and mortality rates (MR) were correlated with nutritional anaemia and analyzed by income groups into 5 low income countries (LIC), 11 middle income countries (MIC) and 6 high income countries (HIC). Results: Trends in mean prevalence of anaemia in women showed a concave curve increasing after a short decrease in the early 2000 in all income groups (P > 0.05). Trends in anaemia in the CU5 exhibited a steep decrease from a mean of 52.59 ± 16.4 in 2000 to 37.3 ± 14.9 in 2016 at P < 0.002, the steep decline was significant in HIC (P < 0.01) and MIC (P < 0.02), but not for LIC (P > 0.05). Anaemia prevalence in women and CU5 was significantly correlated to LBW, stunting, and with overweight and obesity in adults but negatively in CU5. All age specific MRs were highly correlated with anaemia in pregnant, non-pregnant and CU5 at P < 0.001 and TFR at P < 0.05. BFC for shorter durations was negatively correlated with anaemia in pregnant women (r-0.5) at P < 0.05 and was positively correlated in MIC and HIC. In non-pregnant women, BFC12 and BFC 24 correlated positively with anaemia prevalence in all three income groups at P < 0.01. Conclusions: Completing optimal breastfeeding for two years should be promoted to protect women and CU5 from anemia and obesity. Nutritional anemia during pregnancy increases regional rates of LBW, stunting and mortality. Spacing out births by encouraging longer duration of breastfeeding, to replenish iron stores, can help alleviate many of the health and nutritional problems in the region.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0414.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 vaccinations; all-cause mortality; relative risk
Online: 24 February 2023 (02:03:36 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemics has had an unprecedented global impact, and the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign has been commonly regarded as crucial to overcome the pandemics. Since all-cause mortality is the best way to measure the consequences of a health intervention, the present study was devised to analyze the all-cause mortality data of the United Kingdom (UK), which are made publicly available broken down by vaccination status. Data from January to May 2022 were retrospectively collected and analyzed according to age groups and vaccination status and the relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality was calculated in comparison to the corresponding unvaccinated groups. All-cause mortality RR was also calculated from January to May 2021 for vaccinated people. Results show that the all-cause mortality RR was higher in people who received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccines throughout the whole period and in any of the age groups considered. People vaccinated with three doses more than 21 days earlier had RRs lower than unvaccinated people, which however linearly increased over time. RR in vaccinated people of all ages in comparison to unvaccinated people were lower in January-May 2021, however they steadily grew over time. The finding that all-cause mortality RR in vaccinated in comparison to unvaccinated people increases over time requires careful examination to understand the underlying factors. Meanwhile, all the other major countries should undertake a systematic collection of all-causes mortality broken down by vaccination status, and mass vaccination campaigns should be suspended.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0066.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pathology & Pathobiology Keywords: COVID-19; endothelial dysfunction; glycocalyx degradation; sydencan-1; and mortality
Online: 9 January 2023 (03:21:59 CET)
Background: Endotheliopathy is common pathologic findings in patients with acute and long COVID-19. It may be associated with disease severity and predispose to long-term complications. Plasma levels of a proteoglycan syndecan-1 are found to be significantly elevated in patients with COVID-19, but its roles in assessing the disease severity and predicting long-term outcome are not fully understood. Methods: 124 consecutive hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection were prospectively enrolled and blood samples were collected on admission (T1), 3-4 days following treatment (T2), and 1-2 days prior to discharge or death (T3). Plasma levels of syndecan-1 were determined using an immunosorbent assay; various statistical analyses were performed to determine the association between plasma syndecan-1 levels and disease severity or the 60-day mortality rate. Results: Compared with those in the healthy controls, plasma levels of syndecan-1 in patients with critical COVID-19 were significantly higher (p<0.0001). However, there was no statistically significant difference among patients with different disease severity (p>0.05), resulting from large individual variability. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated that while the levels fluctuated during hospitalization in all patients, plasma syndecan-1 levels were persistently elevated from baseline in critical COVID19 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed that elevated plasma levels of syndecan-1 (>260 ng/mL at T1, >1018 ng/mL at T2, and >461 ng/mL at T3) were significantly associated with the 60-day mortality rate. Conclusions: Endotheliopathy, marked by glycocalyx degradation and elevated plasma syndecan-1, occurs in nearly all hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection; the elevated plasma syndecan-1 is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0068.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: prostate cancer; Warburg effect; prognosis; radical prostatectomy; lipidic; metabolism; mortality
Online: 5 December 2022 (08:50:39 CET)
Prostate Cancer (PCa) is still ranked as the first cancer in male population and evidences have suggested an alteration of glycemic and lipidic metabolism that are related to its progression and prognosis. Aim of the study is to investigate associations between enzymes’ expression, especially involved in the lipidic pathway, and PCa aggressiveness. We retrospectively analyzed data from 390 patients with PCa or benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) at the Department of Urology, University of Catania. Immunohistochemical slides were evaluated for the expression of proteins related to glucose and lipidic metabolism. A total of 286 were affected by PCa while 104 by BPH. We demonstrated that ATP-lyase (odds ratio [OR]: 1.71; p<0.01), fatty acide sinthase (OR: 4.82; p<0.01), carnitine palmitoyl transferase-1a (OR: 2.27; p<0.05) were associated with androgen receptor (AR) expression. We found that steaoryl Co-A desaturase expression in PCa patients with total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dl was independently associated with ISUP ≥4 (OR: 4.22; p=0.049). We found that CPT-1a+ was associated with biochemical recurrence (hazard ratio: 1.94; p=0.03]). Our results support the evidences that the manipulation of lipidic metabolism could serve in the future to contrast PCa progression.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0192.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Obstetrics & Gynaecology Keywords: uterine cervical neoplasms; mortality; age-period-cohort analysis; forecasting; Brazil
Online: 16 February 2022 (05:03:16 CET)
Cervical cancer is a public health issue with high disease burden and mortality in Brazil. The objectives of the present study were analyzing age, period, and cohort effects on cervical cancer mortality in women 20 years old or older from 1980 to 2019 in the North, South, and Southeast Regions of Brazil; and evaluating whether the implementation of a national screening program and the expansion of access to public health services caused impacts over the examined period and reduced the risk of death over the past years and among younger cohorts. The effects were estimated by applying Poisson regression models with estimable functions. The highest mortality rate by 100,000 women was found in Amazonas (24.13), and the lowest in São Paulo (10.56). A positive gradient was obtained for death rates as women’s age increased. The states in the most developed regions (South and Southeast) showed a reduction in the risk of death in the period that followed the implementation of the screening program and in cohort from the 1960s onwards. The North Region showed a decreased risk of death only in Amapá (2000–2004) and Tocantins (1995–2004; 2010–2019). The findings indicated that health inequities remain in Brazil and suggested that the health system has limitations regarding decreasing mortality associated with this type of cancer in regions with lower socioeconomic development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0165.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: HIV/TB co-infected Mortality; Residential Variations; Multilevel Logistic Regression
Online: 12 January 2022 (13:34:06 CET)
The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that affect the mortality among adult HIV/TB co-infected patients and to see the nutritional difference among mortality in residence level. Retrospective cohort studies of 417 patients which fulfill our criteria were included. Multilevel logistic regression models were used. MLwiN and SPSS software are used to estimate the parameter. The variance of the random factor in the empty model was significant which indicates that there were residential differences in TB-HIV co-infected mortality and it shows multilevel analysis was an appropriate approach for further analysis. The prevalence of HIV/TB co-infected patients' death was 12.9% in study time. Functional status, age of patients, WHO clinical stages, nutritional status, CD4 counts, regimen, and BMI were found to be significant determinants of HIV/TB co-infected mortality. In our study, patients with the bedridden category of functional status, the fourth stages of WHO clinical stages (stage IV), patients with higher age, patients whose treatments were second-line regimen and low CD4 cell counts were more at risk of death. The study also revealed that; poor nutritional status increased the risk of mortality among HIV/TB co-infected patients and it varies among the residence of the patients (rural area were more at risk).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0490.v1
Subject: Engineering, General Engineering Keywords: Accident traffic; app store; mobile app; mortality; notifications; scrum methodology.
Online: 30 December 2021 (16:20:03 CET)
This research work deals with traffic accidents that are very concurrent in several countries, which in turn contribute to the mortality rate from 19 to 25 years of age and up. In the research work, immediate notifications for traffic accidents were carried out through a mobile application (app) where it will have an emergency button which will help the injured a lot, since the nearest help centers such as the police, fire brigades and the nearest hospitals, so that they can provide support to the people who suffered the accident. In the project, the implementation of Scrum Methodology was used since it served us an amount for the development of the prototypes of the App, and in turn with their roles it did not serve much help for the project, however, passers-by are of vital importance already that they will be the ones to make said report when observing a traffic accident and thus notify the nearest aid centers. As data collection for the creation of the software functions, a survey was carried out with more than 30 people, the functions applied in the application were programmed with the Dart language and generated under the flutter tool in order to be able to distribute it on different platforms such as Play Store and AppStore. The results obtained were the most anticipated since the application fulfills its function, thus reducing deaths and improving the speed of attention to traffic accidents and thus saving a life that is in danger.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0267.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; intensive care; trends; United Kingdom; mortality; mechanical ventilation
Online: 9 September 2020 (09:28:49 CEST)
Rationale: Examining trends in patient characteristics, processes of care and outcomes, across an epidemic, provides important opportunities for learning. Objectives: To report and explore changes in admission rates, patient characteristics, processes of care and outcomes for all patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Methods: Population cohort of 10,287 patients with COVID-19 in the Case Mix Programme national clinical audit from 1 February to 2 July, 2020. Analyses were stratified by time period (pre-peak, peak, post-peak) and geographical region. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate differences in 28-day mortality, adjusting for patient characteristics over time. Main results: Admissions to ICU peaked simultaneously across regions on 1 April, with ongoing admissions peaking ten days later. Compared with pre- and post-peak periods, patients admitted during the peak were slightly younger but had greater respiratory and renal dysfunction. Use of invasive ventilation and renal replacement reduced over time. Twenty-eight-day mortality reduced from 43.5% (95% CI 41.6% to 45.5%) pre-peak to 34.3% (95% CI 32.3% to 36.2%) post-peak; a difference of −8.8% (95% CI: −5.2%, −12.3%) after adjusting for patient characteristics. London experienced the highest admission rate and had higher mortality during the peak period but a greater reduction in post-peak mortality. Conclusion: This study highlights changes in patient characteristics, processes of care and outcomes, during the UK COVID-19 epidemic. After adjusting for the changes in patient characteristics and first 24-hour physiology, there was substantial improvement in 28-day mortality over the course of the epidemic.
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; ambient temperature; risk level; mortality
Online: 6 July 2020 (10:25:09 CEST)
COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through affecting microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Ambient temperature (AT) has been roughly associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To translate into a feasible practice in controlling COVID-19 pandemic, in-depth and implementable knowledge of AT role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be unveiled. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 30, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 26.89 ºC (25.18 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.81. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 5.05 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June, respectively. MDPM low-risk rates (<2) in countries with AT >25 ºC were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 52.46%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Ventilation and sanitizing the air with ultraviolet light in nonbusiness hours may be additionally effective. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0345.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; venous thrombosis; pulmonary embolism; venous thromboembolism; anticoagulants; mortality
Online: 19 April 2020 (13:08:16 CEST)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to systemic coagulation activation and thrombotic complications. We investigated the incidence of objectively confirmed venous thromboembolism (VTE) in 198 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a single-center cohort study. Seventy-four patients (37%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). At time of data collection, 58 (29%) were still hospitalized and 14% had died. During a median follow-up of 5 days (IQR, 3-9), 33 patients (17%) were diagnosed with VTE of whom 22 (11%) had symptomatic VTE, despite routine thrombosis prophylaxis. The cumulative incidences of VTE at 7 and 14 days were 15% (95% CI, 9.3-22) and 34% (95% CI, 23-46), respectively. For symptomatic VTE, these were 11% (95% CI, 5.8-17) and 23% (95% CI, 14-33). VTE appeared to be associated with death (adjusted HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.02-8.0). The cumulative incidence of VTE was higher in the ICU (25% at 7 days 95% CI, 15-36, and 48% at 14 days, 95% CI, 33-61) than on the wards (any VTE and symptomatic VTE 6.5 % at 7 days (95% CI, 1.5-17) and 10% at 14 days (95% CI, 2.9-24)).The observed risk for VTE in COVID-19 is high, particularly in ICU patients, which should lead to a high level of clinical suspicion and low threshold for diagnostic imaging for DVT or PE. Future research should focus on optimal diagnostic and prophylactic strategies to prevent VTE and potentially improve survival.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0352.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pediatrics Keywords: vaginal; cesarean section; African American women; infant mortality; race/ethnicity
Online: 23 March 2020 (11:21:46 CET)
Objective: Racial/ethnic disparities in infant mortality (IM) continue to persist in the United States, with Black/African Americans (AA) being disproportionally affected with threefold increase in mortality compared to Whites. Epidemiologic data have identified maternal characteristics as risk IM such as eclampsia, maternal education, smoking, maternal weight, maternal SES, and family structure. Understanding the cause of causes including the method of labor and delivery and the racial heterogeneity may facilitate intervention mapping in narrowing the Black White IM risk differences. We aimed to assess the temporal/racial trends and the methods of delivery, mainly vaginal versus cesarean section (C-section) as exposure function of IM. Methods: The United States linked Birth/Infant Death records (2007-2016) were used with a cross-sectional ecologic design. The analysis involved chi squared statistic, incidence rate estimation, and period percent change. Results: Of the 40,445,070 births between 2007 and 2016, cumulative mortality incidence was 249,135 (1.16 per 1000). The IM rate was highest among Black/AA (11.41 per 1000), intermediate among Whites (5.19 per 1000), and lowest among Asian /Pacific Islanders (4.24 per 1000). The cumulative incidence rate difference, comparing vaginal to cesarean procedure was 1.73 per 1000 infants, implying excess IM with C-section. Compared to C-section, there was a 31% decreased risk of IM among mothers with vaginal delivery, rate ratio (RR) = 0.69, 95% CI 0.64-0.74. Racial disparities was observed in the method of delivery associated with IM. Black/AA mothers with vaginal delivery had a 6% decreased risk of IM compared to C-section, RR = 0.94, 95%CI 0.92-0.95, while Whites with vaginal delivery had a 38% decrease risk of IM relative to C-section, RR= 0.68, 95%CI 0.67-0.69, p<0.001. Conclusion: Infant mortality varied by race, with Black/AA disproportionally affected which is explained in part by labor and delivery procedures, suggesting reliable and equitable intrapartum assessment of Black/AA mothers during labor.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0213.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: short stature; type 2 diabetes; end-stage renal disease; mortality
Online: 16 December 2019 (11:12:15 CET)
Short stature has been associated with increased various disease and all-cause death, but no reliable data exist the association between height and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in diabetic patients. We investigated the relationship between short stature, development of ESRD, and mortality in type 2 diabetes. This study analyzed clinical data using the National Health Insurance Database in Korea. Height was stratified by five groups according to age and sex. Risk of ESRD and all-cause mortality was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models. During a 6.9-year follow-up period, 220,457 subjects (8.4%) died and 28,704 subjects (1.1%) started dialysis. Short stature significantly increased the incidence of ESRD and all-cause mortality in the overall cohort analysis. In multivariable analysis, hazard ratios (HR) for development of ESRD comparing the highest versus lowest quartiles of adult height were 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.83–0.89). All-cause mortality also decreased with highest height compared to patients with lowest height after fully adjusting for confounding variables (HR 0.79, 95% CI, 0.78–0.81). Adult height had an inverse relationship with newly diagnosed ESRD and all-cause in both males and females. Short stature is strongly associated with an increased risk of ESRD and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0133.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: malnutrition; disease related malnutrition; risk factors; nutrition care; mortality; recommendations
Online: 12 November 2019 (16:46:08 CET)
Disease related malnutrition (DRM) is prevalent in hospitals and is associated with increased care needs, prolonged hospital stay, delayed rehabilitation and death. Nutrition care process related activities such as screening, assessment and treatment has been advocated by scientific societies and patient organizations but implementation is variable. We analyzed the cross-sectional nutritionDay database for prevalence of nutrition risk factors, care processes and outcome for medical patients. In 59126 medical patients included between 2006-2015 the prevalence of recent weight loss (45%), history of decreased eating (48%) and low actual eating (53%) was more prevalent than low BMI (8%). Each of these risk factors was associated with a large increase in 30 days hospital mortality. Nutrition care processes increases slightly with presence of risk factors but never done in more than 50% of patients. Only a third of patients not eating in hospital receive oral nutritional supplements or artificial nutrition. We suggest that political action should be taken to raise awareness and formal education on all aspects related to DRM for all stakeholders, to create and support responsibilities within hospitals, and to create adequate reimbursement schemes. Collection of routine and benchmarking data is crucial to tackle DRM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0276.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Oceanography Keywords: copepoda; secondary production; mortality rates; Baltic sea; gulf of Gdańsk
Online: 25 April 2019 (08:05:58 CEST)
The main objective of this paper was description of seasonal and interannual trends in secondary production and mortality rates of the three most important Copepoda taxa in the Gulf of Gdańsk (southern Baltic Sea). Samples were collected monthly from 6 stations located in the western part of the Gulf of Gdańsk during three research periods: 1998-2000, 2006-2007 and 2010-2012. Production was computed basing on copepod biomass and mortality rates estimated according to vertical life table approach. Redundancy analysis was used to investigate relationship between secondary production and environmental conditions. Considering the entire research period there was significant interannual and seasonal variability of secondary production, mortality rate as well as abundance and biomass anomalies. Conducted analysis revealed correlation between increasing temperature and production of Acartia spp. and T.longicornis developmental stages, while older copepodites of P.acuspes showed almost negative correlation with temperature. The mortality rate estimations obtained for Acartia spp. Were highest in summer, while for T.longicornis peak was usually noted in spring-summer period. Lowest mortality rate estimations were noted in autumn and winter for almost all stages of investigated taxa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0066.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: malnutrition; nutritional assessment; hospital mortality; length of stay; critical illness
Online: 10 November 2017 (06:29:59 CET)
There is limited evidence for the association between malnutrition and hospital mortality as well as Intensive Care Unit length-of-stay (ICU-LOS) in critically ill patients. We aimed to examine the aforementioned associations by conducting a prospective cohort study in an ICU of a Singapore tertiary hospital. Between August 2015 and October 2016, all adult patients with ≥24 h of ICU-LOS were included. The 7-point Subjective Global Assessment (7-point SGA) was used to determine patients’ nutritional status within 48 hours of ICU admission. Multivariate analyses were conducted in two ways: 1) presence versus absence of malnutrition, and 2) dose-dependent association for each 1-point decrease in the 7-point SGA. There were 439 patients of which 28.0% were malnourished, and 29.6% died before hospital discharge. Malnutrition was associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality [adjusted-RR 1.39 (95%CI: 1.10–1.76)], and this risk increased with a greater degree of malnutrition [adjusted-RR 1.09 (95%CI: 1.01–1.18) for each 1-point decrease in the 7-point SGA]. No significant association was found between malnutrition and ICU-LOS. Conclusion: There was a clear association between malnutrition and higher hospital mortality in critically ill patients. The association between malnutrition and ICU-LOS could not be replicated and hence requires further evaluation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0265.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; Italy; mortality; public health; risk factors; seasonality; temperature
Online: 15 March 2023 (01:55:15 CET)
(1) Background: This paper investigates the epidemiological risk related to temperature before and during COVID-19 in Italy; (2) Methods: Deaths in 2015-2019 and temperatures were correlated. Excess and COVID-19 deaths were examined to estimate the relationships with temperatures; (3) Results: Annual deaths were higher during the cold months (+45,000, SD = 4,700, S = 21). The scenario worsened during COVID-19. Mortality was higher during minimum temperature periods, although the curve moderately rose in the warmest months (r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths showed a decreasing seasonality. Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were high (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], S = 28) with a doubt of seasonality. COVID-19 mortality was correlated with regional latitude (r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths were found. The exposed population was subject to aging; (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological risk in Italy is seasonal and geographically dependent. Low and very high temperatures can lead to mortality peaks. Therefore, COVID-19 and any other epidemiological risk must be evaluated in light of this evidence. Health systems need to be strengthened during cold and extremely hot periods. Future research should investigate these phenomena at the causal level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0406.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: Atrial Arrhythmia; ACHD; Congenital Heart Disease; AP-ACHD classification; Mortality; Morbidity
Online: 27 January 2022 (03:22:27 CET)
The implications of the adult congenital heart disease anatomic and physiological classification (AP-ACHD) for risk assessment have not been adequately studied. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from an ongoing national, multicentre registry of patients with ACHD and atrial arrhythmias (AA) receiving apixaban (PROTECT-AR study, NCT03854149). At enrollment, patients were stratified according to Anatomic class (AnatC, range I to III) and physiological stage (PhyS, range B to D). Follow-up was conducted between May 2019 and September 2021. The primary outcome was a composite of death from any cause, any major thromboembolic event, major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding, or hospitalization. Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling was used to evaluate the risks for the outcome among AP-ACHD classes. Over a median 20-month follow-up period, 47 of 157 (29.9%) ACHD patients with AA experienced the composite outcome. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals [CI] for the outcome in PhyS C and PhyS D were 1.84 (95% CI 0.73 to 4.61) and 7.88 (95% CI 1.54 to 40.41) respectively, as compared with PhyS B. The corresponding aHRs in AnatC II and AnatC III were 1.10 (95% CI 0.39 to 3.06) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.24 to 4.10) respectively, as compared with AnatC I. In conclusion, the PhyS component of the AP-ACHD classification was an independent predictor of net adverse clinical events among ACHD patients with AA receiving apixaban.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0237.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: Colorectal cancer; Cerebrovascular-specific mortality; Cerebrovascular-specific diseases; Incidence; Risk factors
Online: 12 November 2021 (16:47:45 CET)
Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent diseases and the second leading cause of death worldwide. However, the relationship between CRC and cerebrovascular-specific mortality (CVSM) remains elusive and less is known about the influencing factors associated with CVSM in CRC. Here, we aimed to analyze the incidence as well as the risk factors of CVSM in CRC. Methods: Patients with a primary CRC diagnosed between 1973 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database with follow-up data available until 31 December 2016. Conditional standardized mortality ratios were calculated to compare the incidence of CVSM between CRC patients and the general US population. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses with a competing risk model were used to interrogate the risk factors for CVSM. Results: A total of 563298 CRC individuals were included. The CVSM in CRC patients was significantly higher than the general population in all age subgroups. Among competing causes of death in patients, the cumulative mortality caused by cerebrovascular-specific diseases steadily increased during study period. While age and surgery positively influenced CVSM on both univariate and multivariate analyses, male patients and those who had radiotherapy, chemotherapy, more recent year (2001-2015) of diagnosis as well as multiple primary or distant tumors experienced a lower risk of CVSM. Interpretation: Our data suggest a potential role for CRC in the incidence of CVSM and also identify several significant predictors of CVSM, which may be helpful for risk stratification and therapeutic optimization of cerebrovascular-specific diseases in CRC patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0339.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Anesthesiology Keywords: Drosophila melanogaster; TBI; obesity; volatile anesthetics; isoflurane; sevoflurane; preconditioning; mortality; toxicity
Online: 25 October 2021 (10:28:33 CEST)
We tested the hypothesis that obesity influences the pharmacodynamics of volatile general anesthetics (VGAs) by comparing effects of anesthetic exposure on mortality from traumatic brain injury (TBI) in lean and obese Drosophila melanogaster. We induced TBI with a High-Impact Trauma device. Starvation-selection over multiple generations resulted in an obese phenotype (SS flies). Fed flies served as lean controls (FC flies). Adult (1-7 day old) SS and FC flies were exposed to equianesthetic doses of isoflurane or sevoflurane either before or after TBI. The principal outcome was percent mortality 24 hours after injury, expressed as the Mortality Index at 24 hours (MI24). TBI resulted in lower MI24 in FC than in SS flies (21 (2.35) and 57.8 (2.14), respectively n= 12, p=0.0001). Preexposure to isoflurane or sevoflurane preconditioned FC flies to TBI reducing the risk of death to 0.53 [0.25 to 1.13] and 0.82 [0.43 to 1.58], respectively, but had no preconditioning effect in SS flies. Postexposure to isoflurane or sevoflurane increased the risk of death in SS flies. Only postexposure to isoflurane increased the risk in FC flies (1.39 [0.81 to 2.38]). Thus, obesity affects the pharmacodynamics of VGAs, thwarting the preconditioning effect of isoflurane and sevoflurane in TBI.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0668.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: prolonged infusion; ß-lactams; septic shock; mortality; antibiotic therapy; critical care
Online: 27 May 2021 (13:13:52 CEST)
Septic shock substantially alters the pharmacokinetic properties of ß-lactams with a subsequently high risk of insufficiently low serum concentrations and treatment failure. Considering their pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) index, prolonged infusions (PI) of ß-lactams extend the time that the unbound fraction of the drug remains above the minimal inhibitory concentration MIC (ft >MIC) and may improve patient survival. The present study is a monocentric, retrospective before-and-after analysis of septic shock patients treated with ß-lactams. Patients of the years 2015-2017 received intermittent bolus application whereas patients of 2017-2020 received PI of ß-lactams. The primary outcome was mortality at day 30 and 90 after diagnosis of septic shock. Mortality rates in the PI group were significantly lower on day 30 (PI: 41%, n=119/290 vs. IB: 54.8%, n=68/114; p=0.0097) and day 90 (PI: 47.9%, n=139/290 vs. IB: 62.9%, n=78/124; p=0.005). After propensity-score matching, 30- and 90-day mortality remained lower for the PI group (-10%). PI further reduced duration of invasive ventilation. PI of β-lactam antibiotics led to a stronger decrease in SOFA scores within a 14d-observation period. PI of ß-lactams significantly reduces mortality in patients with septic shock and may have beneficial effects on invasive ventilation and recovery from sepsis-related organ failure.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0621.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; mortality; epidemiology; risk factors; Nigeria; Africa
Online: 25 July 2020 (18:20:23 CEST)
Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 states in Nigeria. We analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 states, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 states: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) per million population also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP and to a lesser extent with TB and population density. On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP states had a greater CMR. This study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain states in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0354.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Obstetrics & Gynaecology Keywords: maternal mortality; Pakistan; Millenium development goals; sustainable development goals; antenatal care
Online: 30 June 2020 (07:15:28 CEST)
Background: Maternal mortality (MM) is a matter of serious concern in low income developing countries (LDCs). Perspective: A great reduction has been observed regarding the maternal deaths globally after huge efforts since 1990 todate. However, the situation continues to be either stagnant or worsening in developing countries, suggesting that the efforts to cope with this issue are either insufficient or not properly implemented. We need to first diagnose the problem areas that are a great hurdle in the road to success towards the reduction of MM. Postpartum haemorrhage and preeclampsia are one of the most common causes of MM. Malnutrition, neurological dysfunction and cancer are among the non-obstetric causes. Trained medical and paramedical staff can be of great help in this regard by increasing awareness among masses at grass root level. Target set by Millennium Development goal has minimized the MM by 44%. But it has not met the target set by Millenium Development Goals 5 and a lot of measures need to be taken in this regard. Conclusions: Majority of the MDs are preventable and can be avoided by adopting appropriate frameworks, linked data sets, surveillance, birth attendants training, preparation for births, etc. Delay in decision to get healthcare, access to healthcare center and receiving these facilities are the main factors in MM.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0449.v2
Subject: Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Covid-19; pandemic; primer; India; mortality rate; evolution; updated primer; evolving pandemic
Online: 1 June 2020 (11:08:03 CEST)
In this paper we first provide a primer on SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 delineating the etiopathogenesis, epidemiology, clinical manifestations and the natural history of the disease. We then trace the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic highlighting the characteristics of the epidemic in China where the pandemic originated, select countries of Europe which peaked during April, and Brazil, US and India where the pandemic has taken serious turns recently. We also project some possible trajectories for the mega cities of India based on the demographic characteristics of these cities in comparison to New York city. This is an updated version of the article from mid-April published online.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0244.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: Chagas disease; cost of illness; mortality premature; efficiency; organizational; life expectancy
Online: 15 April 2020 (10:18:15 CEST)
Economic burden due to premature mortality has a negative impact not only in health system even though in the society. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential years of work tenure lost (PYWL) due to Chagas disease in Colombia from 2010-2017. National data on mortality by sex and ages between 15 and 62 dues to Chagas from 2010 to 2017. The PYWL methodology was applied to assess the impact of Chagas disease in workers who suffer from them. In total, 1,261 deaths were analyzed in the study, of which 60% corresponded to males. The loss of labor productivity caused by Chagas disease was estimated at $29 million. Overall, 48,621 PYWL were lost, and there was an average of 21 years for all subjects with Chagas. Throughout the analyzed period, PYWL increased substantially, and it is necessary to continue with early detection programs to avoid premature death in working age population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201704.0102.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pathology & Pathobiology Keywords: aging; age-related disease; mortality rate; positive feedback loop; vicious cycle
Online: 18 April 2017 (02:45:04 CEST)
Age-related diseases (ARDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide, and contribute to 90% of mortality in developed countries. Interestingly, the mortality rates of individual ARDs increase exponentially with age. Processes described by the exponential growth function typically involve a branching chain reaction or, more generally, a positive feedback loop. Here I propose that each ARD is mediated by one or several positive feedback loops (vicious cycles). I then identify critical vicious cycles in five major ARDs: atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. I also propose that the progression of ARDs can be halted by selectively interrupting the vicious cycles and suggest the most promising targets. An evolutionary perspective is also offered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0079.v1
Subject: Keywords: adult mortality; disparity; political instability; universal health coverage; cross-country study
Online: 8 August 2016 (12:01:28 CEST)
Background: Disparity in adult mortality (AM) with reference to social dynamics and health care has not been sufficiently examined. This study aimed to identify the gap in the understanding of AM in relation to religion, political stability, economic level, and universal health coverage (UHC). Methods: A cross-national study was performed with different sources of data, using the administrative record linkage theory. We created a new data set using data from the 2013 World Bank data catalogue by region, The Economist (Political instability index 2013), Stuckler David et al. (Universal health coverage, 2010), and religious categories of all UN country members. Descriptive statistics, a t-test, an ANOVA followed by a post hoc test, and a linear regression were used where applicable. Result: The average AM rate for males and females was 0.20 ± 0.10 and 0.14 ± 0.10, respectively. AM was significantly higher in economically weak countries, countries with political instability, countries with traditional religion, without achievement of UHC, and Sub-Saharan Africa (p<0.01). There was high disparity of AM between countries with and without UHC (F = male: 61.89, female: 51.85, p<0.001) and between groups with low and high income (F = male: 36.33, female: 42.39, p<0.001). UHC and political stability would significantly reduce AMR by > 0.41 in both sexes and high economic status would reduce male AMR by 0.44, and female AMR by 0.70, in relation to countries without UHC, with political instability, and low economic status. Conclusions: Disparities in AM can be reduced after the achievement of UHC and economically productive activities for those adults affected by conflict and political unrest.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0078.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: alanine aminotransferase; aspartate aminotransferase; AST/ALT ratio; mortality; artificial intelligence; older people
Online: 4 March 2022 (11:17:44 CET)
Low serum alanine aminotransferase activity and high aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/ALT ratio may be associated with high mortality in older people. We aimed to confirm this in an 8-year retrospective cohort study. Clinical data for 5,958 people aged 67–104 years were analyzed for their relationships with all-cause mortality using artificial intelligence (AI; Prediction One [Sony Network Communications Inc.]) and conventional statistical analysis (SAS Enterprise Guide [SAS Institute Inc.]). In total, 1,413 (23.7%) participants died during the study. Auto-AI analysis with five rounds of cross-validation showed that AST/ALT ratio was the third largest contributor to mortality, following age and sex. Serum albumin concentration and body mass index were the fourth and fifth largest contributors, and the individual serum ALT and AST activities were the seventh and tenth largest contributors. Conventional survival analysis showed that ALT, AST, and AST/ALT ratio as continuous variables were all associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 0.98 (0.97–0.99), 1.02 (1.02–1.03), 1.46 (1.32–1.62), respectively; all p <0.0001). In conclusion, both AI and conventional analysis suggest that of the conventional biochemical markers, high AST/ALT ratio is most closely associated with all-cause mortality in older people.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0185.v4
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; Phases of the pandemic; Mortality rate; Case fatality ratio; Infection fatality ratio
Online: 25 January 2022 (10:03:09 CET)
Background: Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. Objective: To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. Results: The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the second phase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. Conclusions: Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0374.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; infectious disease; infection management; PCR test; mortality; kinetic analysis
Online: 3 June 2020 (05:10:05 CEST)
Global differences in changes in the numbers of population-adjusted daily test-positive cases (NPDP) and deaths (NPDD) by COVID-19 were analyzed for 49 countries, including developed and developing countries. The changes as a proportion of national population were compared, adjusting by the beginning of test-positive cases increase (BPI) or deaths increase (BDI). Remarkable regional differences of more than 100 fold in NPDP and NPDD were observed. The trajectories of NPDD after BDI increased exponentially within 20 days in most countries. Machine learning analysis suggested that NPDD on 30 days after BDI was the highest in developed Western countries (1180 persons per hundred million), followed by countries in the Middle East (128), Latin America (97), and Asia (7). Furthermore, in Western countries with positive rates of the PCR test of less than 7.0%, the increase in NPDP was slowing-down two weeks after BPI, and subsequent NPDD was only 15% compared with those with higher positive rates, which suggested that the situation of testing might have affected the velocity of COVID-19 spread. The causes behind remarkable differences between regions possibly include genetic factors of inhabitants because distributions of the race and of the observed infection increasing rates were in good agreement globally.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0470.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: non-pharmacological interventions; COVID 19; health policy; mortality; economic; intensive care unit
Online: 20 May 2020 (04:38:52 CEST)
Non-pharmacological interventions in the fight against COVID 19 include: a) suppression, which facilitates its extinction; and b) mitigation, which reduces its speed of spread. Left unmitigated, the intensive care unit bed capacity (ICU) is exceeded over its maximum supply, resulting in increased deaths. Suppression has shown in simulation models the potential for decreasing ICU occupation below its surge limit, effectively decreasing mortality. However, for avoiding a rebound in transmission, suppression must be maintained intermittently until a vaccine is available (which may take up to 2 years). The objective of this paper was to describe the mortality patterns observed in Spain, Italy and South Korea for discussing a hypothetical combined public health policy and socioeconomic model that could potentially reduce mortality while reducing the economic impact of this pandemic in Spain. The plan is based on a progressive-voluntary reinstatement to work of the population exposed to the lowest risks (healthy non-immune family units <50 y/o and immune population) and it depends on having sufficiently available ICU beds for providing adequate support. This model, if proven correct for Spain, could eventually be followed by other countries facing a similar impact of the present pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0200.v1
Subject: Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19 mortality rate; testing intensity; epidemiology; Europe; Asia
Online: 11 May 2020 (13:23:19 CEST)
It is unclear why European countries have been more severely affected by COVID-19 than East Asian countries. In this ecological study we compared the COVID-19 epidemics (cumulative incidence and mortality rates), host genetic susceptibility and national responses (testing intensity) in all European versus all Western Pacific/East Asian countries reporting cases in the first month of the epidemic. The host-genetic-susceptibility assessment was limited to the frequency of the D-allele of the angiotensin converting enzyme-1 (ACE-1) which has been found to be positively associated with COVID-19 incidence within European countries. Despite earlier epidemics, countries from the Western Pacific reported lower cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases/100 000 inhabitants than European countries (P=0.0002). The Western Pacific countries also reported fewer cumulative COVID-19 deaths/100 000 (P=0.0024). Whilst there was little difference in the cumulative number of tests conducted/100 000, the percent of COVID-19 tests reported positive was higher in Europe than the Western Pacific (P=0.0076). The frequency of the ACE-1 D-allele was lower in the Western Pacific than European countries (P=0.0007). Our results suggest that a combination of different testing strategies and host genetic susceptibility contribute to difference in severity of the COVID-19 epidemics in the Western Pacific/East Asia and Europe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0046.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: women household decision making; maternal mortality; sustainable development goals; developing countries; Nigeria
Online: 4 October 2019 (10:39:02 CEST)
High maternal mortality in the developing countries, particularly in Nigeria, poses serious challenge to achieving the maternal mortality target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the countries. Hence, there is need for multifaceted approach to curtailing the scourge. Women being the victims of maternal mortality, this study finds the effect of their household decision making power in reducing maternal mortality. The study used data from the 2013 Nigeria Health and Demographic Survey (NDHS) and logistic regression model to explore the relationship between women household decision making power and maternal mortality in Nigeria. The finding shows that women who decide and participate in household decision on own health, major purchases and visit to family and relatives were 35% (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.83), 27% (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.92), and 37% (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.80) less likely to experience maternal mortality, respectively, compared to those whose husbands alone decide. Women household decision making power is therefore instrumental to reducing maternal mortality. It is thus important for policy makers, particularly in Nigeria, to pay more attention to social and cultural factors that surround women household decision making ability for speedy reduction in maternal deaths.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0552.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Liver; biochemistry tests; function; COVID-19; injury; SARS-CoV-2; infection; severity; mortality
Online: 24 May 2021 (10:14:53 CEST)
Globally, over the past several months millions of persons contracted the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulting in significant mortality. Health care systems are negatively impacted including the care of individuals with cancers and other chronic diseases such as chronic active hepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. There are various probable pathogenic mechanisms that have been presented to account for liver injury in COVID-19 patients such as hepatotoxicity cause by therapeutic drugs, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection of the bile duct cells and hepatocytes, hypoxia and systemic inflammatory response. Liver biochemistry tests such as AST, ALT, GGT and ALP are deranged in COVID-19 patients with liver injury. Hepatocellular damage results in the elevation of serum AST and ALT levels in early onset disease while a cholestatic pattern that develops as the disease progress causes higher levels of ALP, GGT, direct and total bilirubin. These liver biochemistry tests are prognostic markers of disease severity and should be carefully monitored in COVID-19 patients. We conducted a systematic review of abnormal liver biochemistry tests in COVID-19 and the possible pathogenesis involved. Significant findings regarding the severity, hepatocellular pattern, incidence and related clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients are highlighted.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0381.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: cancer; mortality; electromagnetic fields; breast neoplasms; lung neoplasms; esophageal neoplasms; uterine cervical neoplasms
Online: 15 December 2020 (12:47:54 CET)
Background. This study aims to estimate the rate of death by cancer, according to Radio Base Stations (RBS) radiofrequency exposure, especially for the types of breast, cervix, lung and esophagus cancer. Methods. We collected information about the number of deaths by cancer, gender, age group, Gross Domestic Product per capita, death year and the amount of exposure over the lifetime. We investigated all cancer types and some specific types (breast, cervix, lung and esophagus cancers). Results. In capitals where RBS radiofrequency exposure was higher than 2,000/antennas-year, the average mortality rate was 112/100,000 for all cancers. The adjusted analysis showed that the higher the exposure to RBS radiofrequency, the higher cancer mortality. The highest adjusted risk was observed for cervix cancer (Rate Ratio = 2.18). The spatial analysis showed that the highest RBS radiofrequency exposure was observed in a city in southern Brazil, which also showed the highest mortality rate for all types of cancer and specifically for lung and breast cancer. Conclusion. The balance of our results indicates that the exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from RBS increases the rate of death by all types of cancer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0293.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: MRSA, MSSA, Staphylococcus aureus, mortality, gender, Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, infectious disease, prevention
Online: 15 October 2018 (09:35:59 CEST)
Average of 41,900 patients are diagnosed annually with staphylococcus bacterial infection in California, 24,089 patients have Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) and 17,810 patients have Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus (MSSA). This paper demonstrates that there is a difference in mortality rate due to staphylococcus infection between males and females (P-value<0.05, CI 95%). Male patient diagnosed with S. aureus has 1.3 chance of mortality incidence than female patient. In addition, MRSA infection rate is 1.4 times MSSA infection (P-value<0.05, CI 95%), but the gap of infection is decreasing; however, mortality of both infections combined are more than threefold greater compared to three decades ago.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0233.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: chronic kidney disease; gene polymorphism; angiotensin-converting enzyme; cardiovascular disease; cardiovascular mortality risk; genotype
Online: 26 April 2022 (10:05:25 CEST)
The association between angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion (ACE I/D) polymorphisms and plasma ACE levels may allow for the optimization of a preventive intervention to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. In this study, we aimed to analyze the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and cardiovascular mortality risk among non-hemodialyzed chronic kidney disease patients. This cross-sectional study examined 70 patients of Javanese ethnic origin with stable CKD who did not receive hemodialysis. ACE I/D polymorphisms, plasma ACE levels, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, and cardiovascular mortality risk were investigated. As per our findings, the I allele was found to be more frequent (78.6) than the D allele (21.4), and the DD genotype was less frequent than the II genotype (4.3 vs. 61.4). The ACE I/D polymorphism had a significant direct positive effect on plasma ACE levels (path coefficient = 0.302, p = 0.021). Similarly, plasma ACE levels had a direct and significant positive effect on the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (path coefficient = 0.410, p = 0.000). Moreover, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk had a significant positive effect on cardiovascular mortality risk (path coefficient = 0.918, p = 0.000). The ACE I/D polymorphism had no direct effect on ASCVD and cardiovascular mortality risk. However, our findings show that the indirect effects of high plasma ACE levels may be a factor in the increased risk of ASCVD and cardiovascular mortality in Javanese CKD patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0084.v1
Subject: Biology, Plant Sciences Keywords: drought tolerance; roadside woody vegetation; Simpson diversity; site conditions; tree mortality; tree planting initiatives
Online: 4 March 2022 (17:04:27 CET)
Long-term, multi-decade research on planted tree survival in urban settings is sparse. One understudied urban environment is highway rights-of-way (ROW), lands adjacent to high-speed, unsignalized roadways. We conducted a re-inventory of tree planting cohort in northern Illinois, U.S. on a 48 km-long highway near Chicago which were 10-, 21-, and 30-years old to evaluate long-term patterns of survival and diversity. Using each randomly selected planting site along the highway as a unit of observation and analysis, we compared the number of trees documented in record drawing to the number of trees currently alive to determine percent survival. We evaluated 224 planting sites which originally contained 2,944 trees and collected data about the planting site location. For the oldest cohort, 26% of trees were still alive in 2018 (median survival by species = 16%, Q1 = 0%, Q3 = 48%), while 31% of the 21-year-old cohort (med. = 6%, Q1 = 0%, Q3 = 47%) and 86% of the 10-year-old cohort were still alive (med. = 85%, Q1 = 74%, Q3 = 96%). The survival of the 21- and 30-year-old cohort matches urban tree survival estimates by other researchers, while the 10-year-old survival is higher than expected. The only planting location characteristic that significantly affected survival was traffic islands (areas between the highway and entrance/exit ramps). Species with low drought tolerance were less likely to be alive for the 10-year-old cohort. Waterlogging tolerant species were more likely to be alive in the 10-year-old cohort. Since some species in the 21- and 30-year-old cohorts had very low survival, the tree species richness and diversity s in study areas declined between the initial record drawings and reinventory. This study demonstrates the challenges of maintaining long-term survival and diversity in the highway ROW and emphasizes the importance of species selection.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0211.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Occupational Accidents; Weather Circumstances; Heat Stress; Precipitation; Accident Mortality; time-series analyses
Online: 5 November 2020 (12:26:54 CET)
In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0271.v1
Subject: Biology, Anatomy & Morphology Keywords: 2019-nCoV; COVID-19; excess mortality; all-cause deaths; case fatality ratio; CFR; epidemiology
Online: 13 October 2020 (10:27:10 CEST)
Since identified as the pathogen responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory distress in Wuhan, China, the 2019-nCoV coronavirus has caused over 30M cases and 1M deaths globally. Sporadic cases were identified in several states in the US from early January, and large-scale community transmission is believed to have started in late February, leading to a first spike in COVID-19 deaths and overall mortality in late April, and a second spike later in the summer. I show here that the dynamics of the pandemic were different in different regions of the US, showing a north-south pattern, with a first pandemic wave mainly in northern regions, followed by a second wave mainly in southern regions. Analysis of overall mortality data shows that the increase in mortality correlates well with COVID-19 incidence in most regions, and that from April through August COVID-19 deaths accounted for a substantial proportion of all deaths in all parts of the US.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0246.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19 mortality rate; testing intensity; epidemiology; Europe; Asia; obesity; elderly
Online: 21 June 2020 (10:01:26 CEST)
Background: It is unclear why certain countries have been more severely affected by COVID-19 than other countries. Methods: In this ecological study we compared COVID-19 mortality and incidence/100,000 as well as 4 putative explanatory factors by WHO world region. Linear regression was then used to assess the country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality/100,000 and incidence/100,000 in 204 countries with available data. Results: COVID-19 incidence and mortality/capita were greater in Europe than other regions. This was despite a higher testing rate in Europe than other regions. Europe had an older population than all other regions and a higher prevalence of obesity than Africa, South East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. Country level multiple linear regression revealed positive associations between mortality/capita and testing rate, percent of the population 65 years or older, and Europe compared to Western Pacific and South East Asia (all P<0.005). Results for the analyses with cases/100,000 as outcome variable were similar. Conclusion: Our results suggest that older populations as well as other undefined regional and national factors, possibly related to efficacy of control efforts, are responsible for differences in national severity COVID-19 epidemics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0289.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: reef fish, age, growth, mortality, Great Barrier Reef, Pomacentridae, cross-shelf, MPA, latitudinal gradients.
Online: 24 December 2018 (15:36:19 CET)
Patterns of age and growth of a sedentary damsel fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus were tested over a latitudinal range of approximately 10 degrees (1,200 km) on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Within latitudes these patterns were also compared on reefs across a continental shelf that ranged in width from 52 to 128 km. Although variation in length-max, growth, age-max and the von-Bertalanffy metrics of L, and K were found within and among latitudes, greatest variation in some demographic characteristics were found across the shelf regardless of latitude. Fish were always smaller at inner shelf reefs and grew more slowly when compared to mid and outer shelf reefs. The oldest fish collected was 11 years old and, there were no consistent variation in age-max among distances from shore. On outer reefs, there was a linear relationship with age-max and latitude. This ‘tropical gradient’ of age only explained 34% of the variation, further this was not found when the oldest 10% of fish were considered. Fish only reached an age-max of 6 years on the southern-most reefs. There was a trend for a smaller L with latitude but, it was not significant and L did not vary predictably with water temperature. The sampling of MPAs did not confound the resultant patterns. Instantaneous mortality rates were 0.245-0.685, highest at inner reefs and showed no consistent MPA-related patterns. Our study suggested that the mid and outer shelf waters of the GBR appeared best suited for growth of A. polyacanthus. In conclusion, position on continental shelves and related local environmental conditions needs to be considered in spatial models of growth.