We study the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and inapt for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models with fewest possible hyperparameters. We analyse the regret bound of the proposed algorithms and examine their performance using experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets

This article presents an estimation of the hypertension risk based on a dataset on 1007 individuals. The application of a Tobit Model shows that “Hypertension” is positively associated to “Age”, “BMI-Body Mass Index”, and “Heart Rate”. The data show that the element that has the greatest impact in determining inflation risk is “BMI-Body Mass Index”. An analysis was then carried out using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the use of the Silhouette coefficient. The result shows that the optimal number of clusters is 9. A comparison was then made between eight different machine-learning algorithms for predicting the value of the Hypertension Risk. The best performing algorithm is the Gradient Boosted Trees Regression according to the analyzed dataset. The results show that there are 37 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value greater than 0.75, 35 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value between 0.5 and 0.75, while 227 individuals have a hypertension value between 0.0 and 0.5 units.

Natural disasters are showing an increase in the magnitude, frequency, and geographic distribution. Studies have shown that individuals’ self-sufficiency, which largely depends on household preparedness, is very important for hazard mitigation in at least the first 72 hours following a disaster. However, for factors that influence a household’s disaster preparedness, though there are many studies trying to identify from different aspects, we still lack an integrative analysis on how these factors contribute to a household’s preparation. This paper aims to build a classification model to predict whether a household has prepared for a potential disaster based on their personal characteristics and the environment they located. We collect data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Household Survey in 2018 and train four classification models - logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and multi-layer perceptron classifier models- to predict the impact of personal characteristics and the environment they located on household prepare for the potential natural disaster. Results show that the multi-layer perceptron classifier model outperforms others with the highest scoring on both recall (0.8531) and f1 measure (0.7386). In addition, feature selection results also show that among other factors, a household’s accessibility to disaster-related information is the most critical factor that impacts household disaster preparation. Though there is still room for further parameter optimization, the model gives a clue that we could support disaster management by gathering publicly accessible data.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models need to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak.

Thorough and precise gene structure annotations are essential for maximizing the benefits of genomic data and unveiling valuable genetic insights. The cucumber genome was first released in 2009 and updated in 2019. To increase the accuracy of predicted gene models, 64 published RNA-seq data and 9 new strand-specific RNA-seq data from multiple tissues were used for manual comparison with the gene models. The updated annotation file (version 2.0) contains increased 24,145 predicted genes from previous version (24317 genes) with a higher BUSCO value of 96.9%. 6231 and 1490 transcripts were adjusted and newly added, respectively, accounting for 31.99% of the overall gene tally. These newly added and adjust genes were renamed (CsaV3.1_XGXXXXX), while genes remaining unaltered preserve their original des ignations. A random selection of 21 modified/added genes were validated using RT-PCR analyses. Additionally, tissue-specific patterns of gene expression were examined using newly obtained transcriptome data with the revised gene prediction model. This improved annotation of cucumber genome will provide essential and accurate resources for studies in cucumber.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

Breast Cancer diagnosis is one of the most studied problems in the medical domain. In the medical domain, cancer diagnosis has been studied extensively which instantiates the need of early prediction of cancer disease. For obtaining advance prediction, health records are exploited and given as input to an automated system. This paper focuses on constructing an automated system by employing deep learning based recurrent neural network models. A stacked GRU-LSTM-BRNN is proposed in this paper that accepts health records of a patient for determining possibility of being affected by breast cancer. Proposed model is compared against other baseline classifiers such as stacked Simple-RNN model, stacked LSTM-RNN model, stacked GRU-RNN model. Comparative results obtained in this study indicate that stacked GRU-LSTM-BRNN yield better classification performance for predictions related to breast cancer disease.

The strategy of any organization is based on the growth of its customer base, and one of 5 its principles is that selling a product to an existing customer is much more profitable than acquiring 6 a new customer. However, this approach has several opportunities for improvement, since it usu- 7 ally has a totally reactive approach, which does not give opportunity to the areas specialized in 8 customer experience and recovery, to give an effective response for that moment, since the customer 9 is gone at the time of the intervention. This happens because usually a diagnostic analysis of cus- 10 tomers who have stopped buying products or services in a defined period, commonly three (3) pe- 11 riods or months, is performed. This paper challenges the way to face this problem, and proposes 12 the development of a complete solution, which does not focus exclusively on the prediction of 13 churn, as is usually done in the state of the art research, but to intervene in different interactions 14 that can be carried out with customers. The above focused not only to prevent customer churn, but 15 to generate an added value of continuous improvement in sales processes, increase customer pene- 16 tration, leading to an improvement in customer experience and consequently, an increase in cus- 17 tomer loyalty.

Background: The key objective of this research was to identify the dominant parameters and determine the patient status of pediatric patients with congenital heart disease in the ICU. The data we collected from the Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) Surgery Unit (ICU) in the National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data from 300 ICU patients was collected and analyzed. We choose patients who are less than 12 years old at the time of ICU admission and whose ICU stay is longer than 24 hours. (2) Methods: According to the doctor’s advice, the dependent and independent variables are selected. The relationship between these parameters in the ICU was selected by linear modeling, which is associated with mortality risk. These parameters are used in the linear regression model and the ARIMA model for prediction. The prediction model is used for pediatric congenital heart disease patients in the ICU. (3) Results: The relation between CVP and BP (95% CI=0.2113,0.353 r=0.2841249), PEEP, and FiO2 (95% CI=0.6992,0.770 r=0.7367744) is statistically significant (p value<0.001). pH and PO2 were statistically significant, but there were correlations (95% CI=0.161,0.308 r=0.2362575). The statistically significant (p < 0.001) parameters were selected for prediction. In this study, BP, FiO2, and PO2 parameters were used in the linear regression model and the ARIMA model for prediction. We predict the next-hour patient’s status. The ARIMA model was found to have less error than the linear regression model. (4) Conclusions: This study helps identify the important parameters that are measured in the ICU to monitor patient status and predict the future value of those parameters, with the ultimate goal of providing physicians with an early signal of future patient conditions.

The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model for low-carbon bainitic steel utilising the P and λ parameters. The tempering activation energy of the steel was calculated through statistical methods. Kinetic curves for the hardness equivalents and a nomograph for tempering process parameters were plotted. The error analysis indicates that the predicted values based on the λ and P parameters had errors within 15% and 10%, respectively. The model can be effectively utilised to predict mechanical properties and optimise parameters during the tempering process.

While the language model using the stop sign as an independent token has been widely used to decide when the model should stop, it may lead to the growth of vocabulary dimensions and further problems. Similarly, present research on game algorithms usually estimate stopping point related problems based on the evaluation of the winning rate. However, information redundancy may also exist in such models, thus increasing the training difficulty. Above two types of tasks (and similar autoregressive tasks) show a common problem of stopping point prediction. In this paper, we describe a design of separated model, trying to separate the complexity of stopping point prediction from the main task model, so that the information used for estimating stopping point can be reduced. On this basis, in order to verify the rationality of using separated model, we propose a model-free test method. It judges the separability of transformed data based on point difference and sequence difference metrics. In this way, it can predict the credibility of the separated model inference.

Fitts' law predicts the human movement response time for a specific task by a simple linear formulation, in which the intercept and the slope are estimated from the task's empirical data. This research was motivated by our pilot study, which found that the linear regression's essential assumptions are not satisfied in the literature. Furthermore, the keystone hypothesis in Fitts' law, that the movement time per response will be directly proportional to the minimum average amount of information per response demanded by the particular amplitude and target width, has never been formally tested. Therefore, this study developed an optional formulation derived from fusing the findings in psychology, physics, and physiology for fulfilling the statistical assumptions. An experiment was designed to test the hypothesis in Fitts' law and validate the proposed model. To conclude, our results indicated that movement time could be related to the index of difficulty underlying the same constant amplitude. The optional formulation accompanies the index of difficulty in Shannon form robustly performs the prediction better than the traditional model across studies. Finally, a new approach to modeling movement time prediction is deduced from our research results

In order to master the structure state of subway shield tunnel, reduce the diseases and avoid the potential safety hazards, the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnels should be predicted. For the non-stationarity small sample size of subway shield tunnel lateral convergence deformation value, the existing prediction models have poor performance in terms of accuracy and stability. In this paper, a lateral convergence model of subway shield tunnel based on Kalman algorithm is constructed based on Kalman filtering theory. The model is efficient, adaptive and robust, and can accurately predict the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnel. Taking the horizontal diameter of 200 rings shield segment in the interval section of a subway tunnel as an example, it is proved that the residuals of the Kalman prediction model are small, the residual distribution conforms to the normal distribution, and the prediction effect is great. The model is suitable for the prediction of more than 5 periods of data, and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved with the increase of the number of data periods. In addition, the Kalman model is compared with GM(1,1) model and GM-Markov model, and RMSE and MAPE are introduced as evaluation indexes. The results show that the Kalman model has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for predicting the lateral convergence deformation of subway shield tunnel.

Globally, seagrass meadows provide critical ecosystem services. However, seagrasses are globally degraded at an accelerated rate. The lack of information on seagrass spatial distribution and seagrass health status seriously hinders seagrass conservation and management. Therefore, this study proposes to combine remote sensing big data with a new hybrid machine learning model (RF-SWOA) to predict potential seagrass habitats. The multivariate remote sensing data is used to train the machine learning model, which can improve the prediction accuracy of the model. This study shows that a hybrid machine learning model (RF-SWOA) can predict potential seagrass habitats more accurately and effectively than traditional models. At the same time, it has been shown that the most important factors influencing the potential habitat of seagrass in the Hainan region were the distance from land (38.2%) and the depth of the ocean (25.9%). This paper provides a more accurate machine learning model approach for predicting the distribution of marine species, which can help develop seagrass conservation strategies to restore healthy seagrass ecosystems.

Sea surface wind forecasts in the Adriatic Sea often suffer for unadequate modelling, especially for the wind speed. This has detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. We present a numerical method to reduce the bias between the sea surface wind observed by the scatterometers and that supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric model, for storm surge forecasting applications. The method, called “wind bias mitigation”, relies on scatterometer observations to determine a multiplicative factor ∆ws which modulates the standard model wind in order to decrease the bias between scatterometer and model. We compare four different mathematical approaches to this method, for a total of eight different formulations of the multiplicative factor ∆ws. Four datasets are used for the assessment of the eight different bias mitigation methods: a collection of 29 Storm Surge Events (SEVs) cases in the years 2004-2014, a collection of 48 SEVs in the years 2013-2016, a collection of 364 cases of random sea level conditions in the same period, and a collection of the seven SEVs in 2012-2016 that were worst predicted by the Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, Comune di Venezia (Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality - CPSM). The statistical analysis shows that the bias mitigation procedures supplies a mean wind speed more accurate than the standard forecast, when compared with scatterometer observations, in more than 70% of the analyzed cases.

Effectively avoiding gas accident is vital to the security of mineral manufacture, and the coal mine gas accident is often caused by gas concentration overrun. The prediction accuracy of gas emission quantity in coal mine is the key to solve this problem. To maintain concentration of gas in a secure range，grey theory and neural network model increasingly diffusely used in forecasting gas emission quantity in coal mine critically. Nevertheless, the limitation of the grey neural network model is that researchers merely bonded the conventional neural network and grey theory. To enhance accuracy of prediction, a modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model is proposed combined amended grey GM(1,1) model and RBF neural network model. Then the proposed model was put into simulation experiment which is built based on Matlab software. Ultimately, conclusion of the simulation experiment verified that the modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model not only boosts the precision of prediction, but also restricts relative error in a minimum range. This showed that the modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model achieves effectiveness in precision of prediction much better than grey GM(1,1) model and RBF neural network model.

The sudden pervasive of severe acute respiratory syndrome Covid-19 has been leading the universe into a prominent crisis. It has influenced each zone, for example, industrial area, horticultural zone, Public transportation, economic zone, and so on. So as to see how Covid-19 affected the globe, we conducted an investigation characterizing the effects of the pandemic over the world using Machine Learning (ML) method. Prediction is a typical data science exercise that helps the administration with function planning, objective setting, and anomaly detection. We propose an additive regression model with interpretable parameters that can be naturally balanced by experts with domain intuition about the time series. We focus on global data beginning from 22^nd January 2020, till 26^th April 2020 and performed dynamic map visualization of Covid-19 expansion globally by date wise and predicting the spread of virus on all countries and continents. The major advantages of this work include accurate analysis of country-wise as well as province/state-wise confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, prediction of pandemic viral attack and how far it is expanding globally.

Magnesium matrix composites have attracted significant attention due to their lightweight nature and impressive mechanical properties. However, the fabrication process for these alloy compo-sites is often time-consuming, expensive, and labor-intensive. To overcome these challenges, this study employed machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the mechanical properties of magnesium matrix composites. Regression models were utilized to forecast the yield strength of magnesium alloy composites reinforced with various materials. The study incorporated previous research on matrix type, reinforcement type, heat treatment, and mechanical working. The re-gression models employed in this study included decision tree regression, random forest re-gression, extra tree regression, and XGBoost regression. Model performance was assessed using metrics such as RMSE and R2. The XGBoost Regression model out-performed others, exhibiting an R2 value of 0.94 and the lowest error rate. Feature importance analysis indicated that the rein-forcement particle form had the greatest influence on the mechanical properties. The study iden-tified the optimized parameters for achieving the highest yield strength, which was 186.99 MPa. Overall, this study successfully demonstrates the effectiveness of ML as a valuable tool for opti-mizing the production parameters of magnesium matrix composites.

Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

A mathematical model of energy metabolism in erythrocyte-bioreactors loaded with alcohol dehydrogenase and acetaldehyde dehydrogenase was constructed and analyzed. Such erythrocytes can convert ethanol to acetate using intracellular NAD and, thus, can be used to treat an alcohol intoxication. Analysis of the model reveals that the rate of ethanol consumption by the erythrocyte-bioreactors increases proportionally to activity of incorporated ethanol-consuming enzymes until their activity reaches a specific threshold level. When the ethanol-consuming enzyme activity exceeds this threshold, the steady state in the model becomes unstable and the model switches to an oscillation mode caused by a competition of glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase and ethanol-consuming enzymes for NAD. An amplitude and period of metabolite oscillations first increase with the increase in the activity of e encapsulated enzymes. A further increase in these activities leads to a loss of the glycolysis steady state, and a permanent accumulation of glycolytic intermediates. The oscillation mode and the loss of the steady state can lead to osmotic destruction of erythrocyte-bioreactors due to an accumulation of intracellular metabolites. Our results demonstrate that the interaction of enzymes encapsulated into erythrocyte-bioreactors with erythrocyte metabolism should be taken into account in order to obtain an optimal efficacy of these bioreactors.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

The intense motion of a ship can greatly impacts the comfort of crew members and the safety of the vessel. Therefore, accurately estimating and predicting ship attitudes has become an important issue. This paper introduces the latest development in functional deep learning model called DeepOnet. It takes wave height as input and ship motion as output, using a cause-to-result prediction approach. The modeling data used in this study is sourced from publicly available experimental data from the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Firstly, parameters system tuning was conducted for the neural network's hyperparameters to determine the appropriate combination of parameters. Secondly, the DeepOnet model for wave height and multi-degree-of-freedom motion was established, and the influence of increasing time steps on prediction accuracy was examined. Finally, a comparison was made between the DeepOnet model and the classical time series model LSTM. It was found that the DeepOnet model had a 10-fold improvement in accuracy for roll and heave attitudes. Moreover, as the forecast duration increased, the advantage of DeepOnet showed a trend of strengthening. As a functional prediction model, DeepOnet provides a new promising tool for very short-term prediction of ship motion.

Artificial intelligence algorithms have gained widespread adoption in the field of air conditioning load prediction. However, their prediction accuracy is substantially influenced by the quality of training samples. Training samples that lack relevance to the predicted moments can introduce interference into the neural network's learning process, potentially leading to a state of local convergence during its iterative process. This, in turn, diminishes the robustness and generalization capabilities of the prediction model. To enhance the prediction accuracy of air conditioning load prediction models based on artificial intelligence algorithms, this study presents an artificial intelligence algorithm prediction model based on the method of sample similarity sample screening. Initially, the comprehensive similarity coefficient between samples is computed using the gray correlation analysis method, enriched with enhancements in information entropy. Subsequently, a subset of closely related samples is extracted from the original dataset and employed as the training dataset for the artificial intelligence prediction model. Finally, the trained artificial intelligence algorithm prediction model is deployed for air conditioning load prediction. The results illustrate that the method of screening training samples based on sample similarity effectively improves the prediction accuracy of BP neural network (BPNN) and extreme learning machine (ELM) prediction models. However, it is important to note that this approach may not be suitable for genetic algorithm BPNN (GABPNN) and support vector regression (SVR) models.

The mutual information between the state of a neural network and the state of the external world represents the amount of information stored in the neural network that is associated with the external world. In contrast, the surprise of the sensory input indicates the unpredictability of the current input. In other words, this is a measure of inference ability, and an upper bound of the surprise is known as the variational free energy. According to the free-energy principle (FEP), a neural network continuously minimizes the free energy to perceive the external world. For the survival of animals, inference ability is considered to be more important than simply memorized information. In this study, the free energy is shown to represent the gap between the amount of information stored in the neural network and that available for inference. This concept involves both the FEP and the infomax principle, and will be a useful measure for quantifying the amount of information available for inference.

The increase in population and the challenges caused by it are always among the concerns of decision-makers and policymakers in large countries. One of the most serious concerns is in the field of energy consumption. Optimizing energy use is one of the most effective ways to manage limited resources and energy. Energy consumption in residential houses constitutes a significant percentage of the total energy consumption worldwide; therefore, current research focusing on mathematical models aims to provide a predictive multi-objective linear mathematical model for residential house consumption. For this purpose, the consumption of water, electricity, and gas for 80 residential houses, including 10 household appliances and equipment on a weekly basis, has been considered. The results showed that the mixed-integer multi-objective predictor model is able to optimize household consumption plans compared to the actual state of household energy consumption. Since the goals of household satisfaction and energy consumption costs in the model conflict with each other, the influence coefficient was calculated to demonstrate the simultaneous achievement of these goals. The optimal value achievable with the default model for the model's purposes is 69%.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

Deep coal beds have been suggested as possible usable underground geological locations for carbon dioxide storage. Furthermore, injecting carbon dioxide into coal beds can improve the methane recovery. Due to importance of this issue, a novel investigation has been done on adsorption of carbon dioxide on various types of coal seam. This study has proposed four types of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approaches with different kernel functions to estimate excess adsorption of carbon dioxide in terms of temperature, pressure and composition of coal seams. The comparison of GPR outputs and actual excess adsorption expresses that proposed models have interesting accuracy and also the Exponential GPR approach has better performance than other ones. For this structure, R2=1, MRE=0.01542, MSE=0, RMSE=0.00019 and STD=0.00014 have been determined. Additionally, the impacts of effective parameters on excess adsorption capacity have been studied for the first time in literature. According to these results, the present work has valuable and useful tools for petroleum and chemical engineers who dealing with enhancement of recovery and environment protection.

Several epidemiological models are being used around the world to project the number of infected individuals and the mortality rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. Advancing accurate prediction models is of utmost importance to take proper actions. Due to a high level of uncertainty or even lack of essential data, the standard epidemiological models have been challenged regarding the delivery of higher accuracy for long-term prediction. As an alternative to the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR)-based models, this study proposes a hybrid machine learning approach to predict the COVID-19 and we exemplify its potential using data from Hungary. The hybrid machine learning methods of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multi-layered perceptron-imperialist competitive algorithm (MLP-ICA) are used to predict time series of infected individuals and mortality rate. The models predict that by late May, the outbreak and the total morality will drop substantially. The validation is performed for nine days with promising results, which confirms the model accuracy. It is expected that the model maintains its accuracy as long as no significant interruption occurs. Based on the results reported here, and due to the complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research.

For an enterprise, the most critical aspect of development is resource management, which has a significant impact on all aspects of the enterprise. Therefore, enterprises must pay attention to resource management allocation, which can better promote the sustainable development of the enterprise and obtain optimal benefits. In the production and development of modern enterprises, the acquisition of benefits also involves the allocation of resources in enterprise management. This paper proposed a benefit optimization scheduling algorithm based on a macroeconomic prediction model under auction mechanism and a grid resource scheduling algorithm driven by a benefit function to allocate resources reasonably. This article used macroeconomic forecasting models to fully understand the resource needs of various departments and the resources held by enterprises, and rationally allocate various resources in various departments. This can improve the work efficiency of various departments, thereby reducing the cost of the enterprise, and achieving optimal benefits for the enterprise. The experimental results in this paper showed that the cost of resource management allocation for the benefit optimization scheduling algorithm and the grid resource scheduling algorithm based on the benefit function driven under the auction mechanism was 105.6 yuan and 46.8 yuan respectively when the task volume was 125 under the multi user environment. The time allocated for resource management was 36.6s and 18.9s respectively. It can be seen that the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm had a lower cost and time for resource management allocation, so the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm can achieve enterprise efficiency optimization.

The accuracy of sales prediction models based on the big data of online word-of-mouth (eWOM) is still not satisfied. We argue that eWOM contains heat and sentiments of different product dimensions, which can improve the accuracy of these models. In this paper, we propose a dynamic topic analysis (DTA) framework in order to extract heat and sentiments of product dimensions from the big data of eWOM. Finally, we propose an autoregressive-heat-sentiment (ARHS) model, which integrates heat and sentiments of dimensions into the baseline predictive model. The empirical study in movie industry confirms that heat and sentiments of dimensions can improve the accuracy of sales prediction model. ARHS model is better for movie box-office revenue prediction than other models.

The article is focused mainly on verifying the suitability of data from experimental milling heat-treated beech wood and on investigation of the effect of technical and technological parameters of milling on the energy consumption of this process. The independent parameters of machining process are cutting speed, feed speed, rake angle, and hydrothermal modification of experimental wood material. Based on analysis of variance it can be argued that the greatest statistically significant effect on energy consumption have cutting speed and rake angle of the tool while the feed speed had the least influence. The measured data of cutting power during milling were used to build a regression model and validate it, while the most suitable type of model with correlation of 87 % is Classification and Regression Tree followed by model created by Random Forests method.

In a super-aged society, maintaining healthy aging, preventing death, and enabling a continua-tion of economic activities are crucial. This study sought to develop a model for predicting the survival time in community-dwelling older individuals by using a deep learning method, and to identify the level of influence of various risk factors on the survival period, so that older in-dividuals can manage their own health. This study used the Korean National Health Insurance Service claims data. We observed community-dwelling older people, aged 66 years, for 11 years and developed a survival time prediction model. Of the 189,697 individuals enrolled at baseline, 180,235 (95.0%) survived from 2009 to 2019, while 9,462 (5.0%) died. Using deep learning based models (C statistics = 0.7011), we identified Charlson’s comorbidity index; the frailty index; long-term care benefit grade; disability grade; income level; a combination of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia; sex; smoking status; and alcohol consumption habit as factors impacting survival. In particular, Charlson’s comorbidity index (SHAP value: 0.0445) and frailty index (SHAP value: 0.0443) were strong predictors of survival time. Older individuals should rec-ognize modifiable risk factors that affect survival period in order to manage their own health.

To assess the impact of tourism on the incidence of HIV and AIDS using Malaysian epidemiological data over the period of 1986-2011 with additional consideration for newborns infected with HIV. A population-level mathematical model was used to investigate: i) the role of tourism in the spread of HIV and measures used to reduce HIV spread in Malaysia; ii) whether the stability of infectious disease transmission is dependent on the flow of visiting tourists. We first derived an equation for the reproduction number (R0) threshold to quantify the contagiousness of HIV in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the effect of various parameters on HIV transmission with respect to the increase in tourism. Our findings suggest that a stable disease-free state is sustainable based on the low value of R0 was 0.0017. This result is encouraging from a public health perspective. Approximately 14% of outbound tourists who leave the country return infected with HIV and the difference between the rate at which tourists move to the susceptible category and the rate at which tourists leave the susceptible is category is 12%. Estimated parameters for the influx of tourist rates, δ=1.1540x10-3[1.1477x10-3 - 1.15954x10-3], δ1=7.7901x10-4[7.7867x10-4 - 7.79418x10-4], and δ2=1.4030x10-8[-7.2287x10-7-7.5096x10-7], significantly impacted the spread of HIV in Malaysia. Some significant adjustments were made to the expected parameters. The methods used are helpful to public health analyses and provide a framework for epidemiological modeling of HIV spread among tourists. The trend and magnitude of tourist inflows may be determinants in the incidence of HIV and AIDS in Malaysia.

The prediction of an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) is one of the challenging issues due to increasing intensity and its life period. In this study, an ESCS Fani that developed over Bay of Bengal region during 27 April - 4May, 2019 and made landfall over Odisha coast of India is investigated to forecast the storm track, intensity and structure. Two numerical experiments (changing two air-sea flux parameterization schemes; namely FLUX-1 and FLUX-2) are conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model by using a moving nest with fine horizontal resolution about 3 km. The high resolution (25 km) NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast datasets are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, the ARW model initialized at 00 UTC 29 April 2019 and forecasted for 108 hours. The forecasted track and intensity of Fani is validated with available India Meteorological Department (IMD) best-fit track datasets. Result shows that the track, landfall (position and time) and intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum surface wind (MSW) of the storm is well predicted in the moving nested domain of the WRF model using FLUX-1 experiment. The track forecast errors on day-1 to day-4 are ~ 47 km, 123 km, 96 km, and 27 km in FLUX-1 and ~54 km, 142 km, 152 km and 166 km in Flux-2 respectively. The intensity is better predicted in FLUX-1 during the first 60 h followed by FLUX -2 for the remaining period. The structure in terms of relative humidity, water vapor, maximum reflectivity and temperature anomaly of the storm is also discussed and compared with available satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations.

The integration of deep learning models into financial risk prediction and analysis has significantly transformed traditional approaches. While conventional quantitative methods often rely on simplistic metrics like maximum drawdown, the advent of deep learning necessitates a more nuanced evaluation, emphasizing the model's generalization ability, especially during market crises such as stock market crashes. This paper explores the critical aspects of evaluating deep learning models' risk control capabilities in finance, underscoring the importance of understanding both statistical metrics and generalization abilities, particularly in adverse market conditions. By examining deep learning models' performance in scenarios like stock market crashes and highlighting the significance of cross-validation techniques, this study aims to offer practitioners insights into constructing robust risk management systems. It advocates for a comprehensive approach integrating quantitative analysis with macroeconomic factors to enhance financial risk prediction and analysis in volatile markets. The experimentation reveals that different deep generative models excel in various aspects of financial time series analysis, with generative adversarial networks (GANs) demonstrating superior performance in predicting Value at Risk (VaR) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) excelling in return rate prediction. Moreover, integrating multiple models further enhances predictive performance, leveraging the strengths of each model to compensate for individual weaknesses. Overall, this paper underscores the potential and significance of deep generative models in financial time series analysis, offering a roadmap for improved risk management and decision-making in financial markets.

This study introduces a novel predictive model for atomization droplet size, developed through comprehensive data collected under elevated temperature and pressure conditions using a twin swirl airblast nozzle. The model, grounded in flow instability theory, has been meticulously parameterized using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Through rigorous analysis, including analysis of variance (ANOVA), the model has demonstrated robust reliability and precision, with a maximum relative error of 19.3% and an average relative error of 6.8%. Compared to the classical atomization model by Rizkalla and Lefebvre, this model leverages theoretical insights and incorporates a range of interacting variables, enhancing its applicability and accuracy. Spearman correlation analysis reveals that air pressure and the air pressure drop ratio significantly negatively impact droplet size, whereas the fuel-air ratio (FAR) shows a positive correlation. Experimental validation at ambient conditions shows that the model is applicable with a reliability threshold of ≥0.13 and highlight the predominance of the pressure swirl mechanism over aerodynamic atomization at higher fuel flow rates (q > 1.25 kg/h). This research effectively bridges theoretical and practical perspectives, offering critical insights for the optimization of airblast nozzle design.

Fracture density, a critical parameter of unconventional reservoirs, can be used to evaluate potential of unconventional reservoirs and location of production wells. Many technologies, such as amplitude variation with offset and azimuth (AVOA) technology, vertical seismic profiling (VSP) technology, and multicomponent seismic technology, are generally used to predict fracture of reservoirs. they can qualitatively predict fracture by analyzing seismic attributes, including seismic wave amplitudes, seismic wave velocities, which are sensitive to fracture. However, it is important to quantitatively describe fracture of reservoirs. In this study, based on a double-layer model, the relationships between fracture density and the double-layer model’s physical parameters, such as velocity of fast shear-wave, velocity of slow shear-wave, and density, were established, and then a powerful quantitative prediction method for fracture density was proposed dramatically. Afterwards, the Hudson model for crack was used to test the applicability of the method. The result shown that the quantitative prediction method for fracture density can be applied suitable to the Hudson model for crack. Finally, the result of validation models indicated that the method can predict fracture density effective, in which absolute relative deviation (ARD) were less than 5% and root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.88×10-3.

Determining accurate PM2.5 pollution concentrations and understanding their dynamic patterns is crucial for scientifically informed air pollution control strategies. Traditional reliance on linear correlation coefficients for ascertaining PM2.5 related factors only uncovers superficial relationships. Moreover, the invariance of conventional prediction models restricts their accuracy. To enhance the precision of PM2.5 concentration prediction, this study introduces a novel integrated model that leverages feature selection and a clustering algorithm. Comprising three components - feature selection, clustering, and integrated prediction, the model first employs the non-dominated sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-III) to identify the most impactful features affecting PM2.5 concentration within air pollutants and meteorological factors. This step offers more valuable feature data for subsequent modules. The model then adopts a two-layer clustering method (SOM+K-means) to analyze the multifaceted irregularity within the dataset. Finally, the model establishes the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) weak learner for each classification, integrating multiple weak learners using the Adaboost algorithm to obtain a comprehensive prediction model. Through feature correlation enhancement, data irregularity exploration, and model adaptability improvement, the proposed model significantly enhances the overall prediction performance. Data sourced from 12 Beijing-based monitoring sites in 2016 were utilized for an empirical study, and the model's results compared with five other predictive models. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed model significantly heightens prediction accuracy, offering useful insights and potential for broadened application to multifactor correlation concentration prediction methodologies for other pollutants.

The core of eLoran ground-based timing navigation system is the accurate measurement of groundwave propagation delay. However, meteorological changes will disturb the conductive characteristic factors along the groundwave propagation path, especially for complex terrestrial propagation environment, and may even lead to microsecond-level propagation delay fluctuation, seriously affecting the timing accuracy of the system. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes a propagation delay prediction model based on Back-Propagation neural network (BPNN) for complex meteorological environment, which realizes the function of directly mapping propaga-tion delay fluctuation through meteorological factors. Firstly, the theoretical influence of meteoro-logical factors on each component of propagation delay is analyzed based on calculation parame-ters. Then, through the correlation analysis of the measured data, the complex relationship be-tween the seven main meteorological factors and the propagation delay, as well as their regional differences are demonstrated. Finally, a BPNN prediction model considering regional changes of multiple meteorological factors is proposed, and the validity of the model is verified by long-term collected data. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively predict the propagation delay fluctuation in the next few days, and its overall performance is significantly improved compared with the existing linear model and simple neural network model. eLoran; meteorological factor; propagation delay prediction model; Back-Propagation neural network;

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of constitutive equations on the prediction accuracy for springback in cold stamping with various deformation modes. In this study, two types of yield functions—Hill’48 and Yld2000-2d—were considered to describe yield behavior. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models based on the Yoshida–Uemori model were also adopted to describe hardening behavior. Various material tests (such as uniaxial tension, tension- compression, loading-unloading, and hydraulic bulging tests) were carried out to determine the material parameters of the models. The obtained parameters were implemented in the finite element (FE) simulation to predict springback, and the results were compared with experimental data. U-bending and T-shape drawing were employed to evaluate the springback prediction accuracy. Obviously, the springback prediction accuracy was greatly influenced by constitutive equations. Therefore, it is important to choose appropriate constitutive equations for accurate description of material behaviors in FE simulation.

This study explores the application of numerical analysis and material models to predict ice impact loads on ships and offshore structures operating in polar regions. An explicit finite element analysis (FEA) approach was employed to simulate an ice and steel plate collision experiment conducted in a cold chamber. The pressure and strain history during the ice collision were calculated and compared with the experimental results. Various material model configurations were applied to the FEA to account for the versatile behavior of ice—whether ductile or brittle—its elastic-plastic yield criteria, and its dynamic strain rate dependency. In addition to the standard linear elastic perfectly plastic and linear elastic-plastic relationships, this study incorporated the crushable foam and Drucker-Prager models, based on the specific ice yield criteria. Considering the ice’s strain rate dependency, collision simulations were conducted for each yield criteria model to compute the strain and reaction force of the plate specimens. By comparing the predicted pressures for each material model combination with the pressures from ice collision experiments, our study proposes material models that consider the yielding, damage, and behavioral characteristics of ice. Lastly, our study proposes a combination of ice material properties that can accurately predict collision force.

Transportation authorities aim to boost road safety by identifying risky locations and applying suitable safety measures. The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is a vital resource for US transportation professionals, aiding in the creation of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), which are predictive models for crashes. These models rely on Negative Binomial distribution-based regression and misinterpreting them due to unmet statistical assumptions can lead to erroneous conclusions, including inaccurately assessing crash rates or missing high-risk sites. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) has introduced context classifications to HSM SPFs, complicating assumption violation identification. This study, part of an FDOT-sponsored project, investigates established statistical diagnostic tests to identify model violations and proposes a novel approach to determine optimal spatial regions for Empirical Bayes adjustment. This adjustment aligns HSM-SPFs with regression assumptions. The study employs a case study involving Florida roads. Results indicate that a 20-mile radius offers an optimal spatial sample size for modeling crashes of all injury levels, ensuring accurate assumptions. For severe injury crashes, which are less frequent and harder to predict, a 60-mile radius is suggested to fulfill statistical modeling assumptions. This methodology guides FDOT practitioners in assessing the conformity of HSM-SPFs with intended assumptions and determining appropriate region sizes.

Many agonists for the estrogen receptor are known to disrupt endocrine functioning. We have developed a computational model that predicts agonists for the estrogen receptor ligand-binding domain in an assay system. Our model was entered into the Tox21 Data Challenge 2014, a computational toxicology competition organized by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences. This competition aims to find high-performance predictive models for various adverse-outcome pathways, including the estrogen receptor. Our predictive model, which is based on the random forest method, delivered the best performance in its competition category. In the current study, the predictive performance of the random forest models was improved by strictly adjusting the hyperparameters to avoid overfitting. The random forest models were optimized from 4,000 descriptors simultaneously applied to 10,000 activity assay results for the estrogen receptor ligand-binding domain, which have been measured and compiled by Tox21. At this time, our model delivers the highest predictive power on estrogen receptor agonists in the world. Furthermore, analysis of the optimized model revealed some important features of the agonists, such as the number of hydroxyl groups in the molecules.

Global warming has recently intensified research interest in renewable polymer chemistry, with significant attention directed towards lignin nanoparticle (LNPs) synthesis. Despite progress, LNPs industrial application faces challenges: (1) reliance on kraft lignin from declining raw biomass processes, (2) sulfur-rich, and condensed lignin use, (3) complex lignin macroparticles to LNPs conversion, using harmful and toxic solvents, and above all (4) lack of control over the LNPs production process (i.e., anti-solvent precipitation parameters), resulting in excessive variability in properties. In this work, eco-friendly LNPs with tailored properties were produced from a semi-industrial organosolv process by studying anti-solvent precipitation variables. Using first a parametric and then a Fractional Factorial Design, predictions of LNPs size and size distribution as well as zeta-potential were derived from a model over beech by-products organosolv lignin, depending on initial lignin concentration (x1, g/L), solvent flow rate (x2, ml/min), antisolvent composition (x3, H2O/EtOH v/v), antisolvent ratio (x4, solvent/antisolvent v/v) and antisolvent stirring speed (x5, rpm). This novel chemical engineering approach holds promise for overcoming the challenges inherent in industrial lignin nanoparticle production, thereby accelerating the valorization of lignin biopolymers for high value-added applications such as cosmetics (sunscreen or emulsion) and medicine (encapsulation, nanocarriers), a process currently constrained by significant limitations.

For a fiber optic gyroscope, thermal deformation of the fiber coil can introduce additional ther-mal-induced phase errors, commonly referred to as thermal errors. Thermal error compensation techniques are effective means of addressing this issue. The principle behind these techniques involves real-time sensing of thermal errors and correcting them within the output signal. Since it is challenging to directly separate thermal errors from the output signal of the fiber optic gyro-scope, it is necessary to predict thermal errors based on temperature. To establish a mathematical model between temperature and thermal errors, this paper measured synchronized data of phase errors and angular velocity for the fiber coil under different temperature conditions and aimed to model it using data-driven methods. Due to the difficulty of conducting tests and the limited number of data samples, an algorithm called TD-model modeling is proposed to address the issue of overfitting, which can reduce the model's generalization ability. First, a theoretical analysis of the phase errors caused by thermal deformation of the fiber coil is performed. Subsequently, the critical parameters, such as the thermal expansion coefficient, are determined, and a theoretical model is established. Finally, the theoretical analysis model is incorporated as a regularization term and combined with the test data to jointly participate in the regression of model coefficients. Through experimental comparative analysis, it is shown that, relative to ordinary regression models, the TD-model effectively mitigates overfitting caused by the limited number of samples, leading to a 58% improvement in predictive accuracy.

Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control the renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. Capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI and KGE parameters. It was concluded that WOA optimization algorithm can improve prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.

To improve the accuracy of short-term multi-energy load prediction models for integrated energy systems, the historical development law of the multi-energy loads must be considered. Moreover, understanding the complex coupling correlation of the different loads in the multi-energy systems and accounting for other load-influencing factors, such as weather, may further improve the forecasting performance of such models. In this study, a two-stage fuzzy optimization method is proposed for the feature selection and identification of the multi-energy loads. To enrich the information content of the prediction input feature, we introduced a copula correlation feature analysis in the proposed framework, which extracts the complex dynamic coupling correlation of multi-energy loads and applies Akaike information criterion (AIC) to evaluate the adaptability of the different copula models presented. Furthermore, we combined a NARX neural network with Bayesian optimization and an extreme learning machine model optimized using a genetic algorithm to effectively improve the feature fusion performances of the proposed multi-energy load prediction model. The effectiveness of the proposed short-term prediction model was confirmed by the experimental results obtained using the multi-energy load time-series data of an actual integrated energy system.

A novel strategy is presented for reliable diagnosis and progression prediction of diseases with special attention to COVID-19 pandemy. A plan is presented for how the model can be implemented worldwide in healthcare and how novel treatments and targets can be detected. The idea is based on poikilosis, pervasive heterogeneity and variation at all levels, systems and mechanisms. Poikilosis in diseases can be taken account in pathogenicity model, which is based on distribution of three independent condition measures – extent, modulation and severity. Pathogenicity model is a population or cohort-based description of disease components. Evidence-based thresholds can be applied to the pathogenicity model and used for diagnosis as well as for early detection of patients in risk of developing the most severe forms of the disease. Analysis of patients with differential course of disease can help in detecting biomarkers of diagnostic and prognostic significance. A practical and feasible plan is presented how the concepts can be implemented in practice. Collaboration of many actors, including the World Health Organization and national health authorities, will be essential for success.

Soil temperature is a fundamental parameter in water resources and engineering. A cost-effective model which can forecast soil temperature accurately is extensively needed. Recently, many studies have applied artificial intelligence (AI) at both surface and underground levels for soil temperature prediction. However, there is no comprehensive and detailed assessment of the performance of different AI approaches in soil temperature estimation, and primarily limited atmospheric variables are used as input data for AI models. In the present study, great varieties of various land and atmospheric variables are applied to evaluate the performance of a wide range of AI methods on soil temperature prediction. Herein, thirteen approaches, from classic regressions to well-established methods of random forest and gradient boosting to advanced AI techniques like multi-layer perceptron and deep learning are taken into account. The results show that AI is a promising approach in climate parameter forecast and deep learning demonstrates the best performance among other models. It has the highest R-squared ranging from 0.957 to 0.980, the lowest NRMSE ranging from 2.237% to 3.287% and the lowest MAE, ranging from 0.510 to 0.743 in predicting soil temperature. The prediction is repeated for different sizes of data, and prediction outcomes confirm the conclusion mentioned above.

Looking at different operating climatic conditions, the electrical behavior predicting photovoltaic modules gets very important. For the estimation of output power from photovoltaic (PV) plants this is a very essential and basic aspect. In this paper, the relationship between the I-V curve and the irradiation spectrum is discussed by combining the single diode model. An explicit elementary analytical model with two defined shape parameters is discussed and improved with three approximations and second order Taylor expansion. Then, the explicit elementary analytical model is investigated under varying conditions leveraging the four parameters I_ph, I₀, R_s and R_sh from the single diode model. The relationship between the physical parameters and the condition parameters are discussed and applied to extract the shape parameters at different scenarios. Considering the aging effect, the process of calculation to predict the I-V curve under different splitting spectra is simplified as follow: (1) two shape parameters are gotten from the I-V data at measurement reference conditions (MRC); (2) the short circuit current, open circuit voltage and shape parameters under any splitting spectrum can be calculated based on the relationship provided in article; (3) the performance of PV panel can be predicted with parameters. The validation of this model was experimentally proven leveraging monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic module with different splitting films. Results showed that the model accurately predicts the I-V characteristics for the examined PV modules at different irradiance spectra and cell temperatures. Moreover, the presented model performs superior compared to other investigated models when looking at accuracy and simplicity.

Hypergravity accelerators are a type of large machinery used for gravity training or medical research. A failure of such large equipment can be a serious problem in terms of safety or costs. This paper proposes a prediction model that can proactively prevent failures that may occur in a hy-pergravity accelerator. The method proposed in this paper was to convert vibration signals to spectograms and perform classification training using a deep learning model. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance of the method proposed in this paper. A 4-channel accel-erometer was attached to the bearing housing, which is a rotor, and time-amplitude data were obtained from the measured values by sampling. The data were converted to a two-dimensional spectrogram, and classification training was performed using a deep learning model for four conditions of the equipment: Unbalance, Misalignment, Shaft Rubbing, and Normal. The ex-perimental results showed that the proposed method had a 99.5% F1-Score, which was up to 23% higher than the 76.25% for existing feature-based learning models.

This research centres on advancing the utilisation of a novel Deep Ensemble model called RicEns-Net for predicting crop yields through sophisticated multi-modal data engineering. Initially, data for the study were acquired from Ernst \& Young (EY), a prominent global technology and management consulting firm, as part of their annual data science challenge (EY Open Science Challenge 2023). The predictive models leverage multi-modal data by integrating radar and optical-type remote sensing data alongside meteorological data to create supplementary features essential for predicting crop yield. The primary data features are derived from spectral indices extracted from Sentinel 2 satellites, while more advanced features are generated through combinations and interactions of these fundamental features. Furthermore, data from Sentinel 1 and 3, along with meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall, account for the intricate natural factors influencing crop yield, creating a comprehensive set of data features based on existing research. To tackle the complexity introduced by numerous data features, extensive data engineering was conducted to identify the most predictive features among 100+ and mitigate the "curse of dimensionality," resulting in 15 features from 5 different modalities. The proposed RicEns-Net comprises multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble approach to leverage the best features of each of these techniques, achieving optimal performance. The proposed model achieves an MAE value of 341 kg/Ha for prediction, surpassing the performance of the EY Open Science Challenge 2023 winner models and state-of-the-art deep/machine learning approaches.

This study explores the comparative performance of FinBERT, GPT-4, and Logistic Regression for sentiment analysis and stock index prediction using the NGX All-Share Index dataset. By leveraging advanced language models like GPT-4 and FinBERT, alongside a traditional machine learning model, Logistic Regression, we aim to classify market sentiment, generate sentiment score, and predict market price movements. The models were assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC. Results indicate that Logistic Regression outperformed both FinBERT and GPT-4, with an accuracy of 81.83% and a ROC AUC of 89.76%. GPT-4 predefined approach exhibited a lower accuracy of 54.19% but demonstrated strong potential in handling complex data. FinBERT, while offering more sophisticated analysis, was computationally demanding and yielded a moderate performance. Hyperparameter optimization using Optuna and cross-validation techniques ensured the robustness of the models. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of these approaches in stock market prediction and presents Logistic Regression as the most efficient model for this task, with FinBERT and GPT-4 showing promise for future exploration.

Entangled metallic wire material (EMWM) can be utilized as a novel elastic element in vibration isolation devices for mechanical actuators. This paper presents a vibration experiment aimed at investigating the degradation behavior of mechanical performance in EMWM under cyclic compressive environment. An electric vibration testing system, coupled with an isolation structure, is employed to apply compressive loads to the EMWM specimens. Through visual observations and quasi-static compression tests, the variations in geometric morphology and mechanical properties are studied, considering different relative densities and stress amplitudes. The results incidate a significant reduction in the compressed dimension of the specimens as the number of cycles increases, without any wire fractures or wear. Moreover, the mechanical properties exhibit an increasing secant modulus and a decreasing loss factor. These variations ultimately lead to a gradual deviation of the vibration characteristics of the isolation structure from its design state. To predict the mechanical property degradation of EMWM, prediction models are proposed, incorporating dimension, modulus and damping by fitting the obtained results. This research provides valuable experimental data and presents an effective method to determine the operational lifetime of vibration isolators utilizing EMWM.

The passenger prediction flow is very significant to transportation sustainability. This is due to some chaos of traffic jams encountered by the road users during their movement to the offices, schools, or markets at earlier of the days and during closing periods. This problem is peculiar to the transportation system of the Federal University of Technology Minna, Nigeria. However, the prevailing technique of passenger flow estimation is non-parametric which depends on the fixed planning and is easily affected by noise. In this research, we proposed the development of a hybrid intelligent passenger frequency prediction model using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) linear model, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Kalman Filter Algorithm (KFA). The passengers’ frequency of arrival at the bus terminals is obtained and enumerated through the closed-circuit television (CCTV) and demonstrated using the Markovian Queueing Systems Model (MQSM). The ARIMA model was used for learning and prediction and compared the result with the combined techniques of using CNN-KFA. The autocorrelation coefficient functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation coefficient functions (PACF) are used to examine the stationary data with different features. The performance of the models was analyzed and evaluated in describing the short-term passenger flow frequency at each terminal using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) values. The CNN-Kalman-filter model was fitted into the short-term series and the MAPE values are below 10%. The Mean Square Error (MSE) shows that the CNN-Kalman Filter model has the overall best performance with 83.33% of the time better than the ARIMA model and provides high accuracy in forecasting.

This study proposed a regression model for predicting fatigue properties based on crucial weld geometry factors in lap-welded joints with gaps using statistical analysis. Welding conditions were varied to build various weld geometries in joints configured in a lap from with gaps of 0, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 mm, and 87 S-N curves for the lap-welded joints were derived. As input variables, 17 weld geometry factors (7 lengths, 7 angles, and 3 area factors) were selected. The slope of the S-N curve using Basquin model from the S-N curve and the safe fatigue strength were selected as output variables for prediction to develop the regression model. Multiple linear regression models, multiple non-linear regression models, and second-order polynomial regression models were proposed to predict fatigue properties. Backward elimination was applied to simplify the models and reduce overfitting. Among the three proposed regression models, the multiple non-linear regression model had a coefficient of determination greater than 0.86. In lap-welded joints with gaps, the weld geometry factors representing fatigue properties were identified through standardized regression coefficients, and four weld geometry factors related to stress concentration were proposed.

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

Predictions of crop production in the Chi basin are of major importance for decision support tools in countries such as Thailand, which aim to increase domestic income and global food security by implementing the appropriate policies. This research aims to establish a predictive model for predicting crop production for an internal crop growth season prior of harvest at the province scale for fourteen provinces in Thailand's Chi basin between 2011 and 2019. We provide approaches for reducing redundant variables and multicollinearity in remotely sensed (RS) and meteorological data to avoid overfitting models using correlation analysis (CA) and variance inflation factor (VIF). Temperature condition index (TCI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LSTnight), and mean temperature (Tmean) were the resulting variables in the prediction model with a p-value < 0.05 and a VIF < 5. The baseline data (2011–2017: June to November) were used to train four regression models, which revealed that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and XGBoost achieved R2 values of 0.95, 0.94, and 0.93, respectively. In addition, the testing dataset (2018–2019) displayed a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.18 ton/ha for the optimal solution by integrating variables and applying the XGBoost model. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022, the total crop production in the Chi basin region would be 7.88, 7.64, and 7.72 million tons, respectively. The results demonstrated that the proposed model is proficient at greatly improving crop yield prediction accuracy when compared to a conventional regression method and that it may be deployed in different regions to assist farmers and policymakers in making more informed decisions about agricultural practices and resource allocation.

As development progresses, when the bottom hole flowing pressure or formation pressure is less than the saturation pressure of crude oil in the reservoir, oil and gas two-phase seepage occurs in the reservoir. Due to the characteristics of oil and gas two-phase seepage, after the oil and gas two-phase seepage occurs in the reservoir, the well production will be reduced, or even greatly reduced. Therefore, how to predict the horizontal well capacity better in this case is an important problem that needs to be solved urgently. In this paper, the method and process of establishing the transient calculation model of two-phase flow in horizontal wells are introduced in detail from three aspects: fluid physical properties, reservoir oil-gas two-phase seepage, and the coupling model of Inflow Performance and Flow in Wellbore. The model is more reliable through the verification of production data from five wells in two oilfields.

Drainage systems are usually dimensioned for design storms based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of extreme precipitation. For each location, different IDF curves are established based on local hydrological conditions. Recent research shows that these curves also vary with time, and should be updated with recent data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate IDF curves obtained from precipitation simulations from the Eta RCM, comparing them with IDF curves obtained from data of a rainfall station. Climate models can be a useful tool for assessing the impacts of climate changes on drainage systems, referring precipitation forecasts. In this study, the Eta RCM was forced by two global climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. The bias of the precipitation data, generated by RCM models, was corrected using a Gamma distribution. The Juqueriquerê River Basin, in the cities of Caraguatatuba and São Sebastião, São Paulo State, Brazil, was chosen as a case study. The results show a good correlation between the IDF curves of simulated and observed rainfall for the control period (1960-2005), indicating the strong possibility of using the Eta RCM precipitation forecasts for 2007 - 2099 to establish future IDFs thereby, taking into account climate changes in urban drainage design.

Aiming at the development of the application of massive and heterogeneous LEO constellations, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction of LEO satellites at different altitudes is analyzed. Firstly, the main perturbation force model of LEO satellites is introduced. Then experiments for analyzing the influence of orbit prediction on LEO satellites at different altitudes are designed. Finally, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction under different prediction durations by numerical analysis is assessed systematically, and the orbit prediction of LEO satellites with different non-spherical gravitational field orders, ocean tide orders and atmospheric density models were compared and calculated. The research results show that different orders of non-spherical gravitational fields should be considered when the altitude of satellites is different, the reasonable gravitational field orders for LEO satellites at 500km, 1000km, 1500km and 2000km under 1-hour forecast time are 140x140, 80x80, 60x60 and 40x40 orders, the reasonable orders of ocean tide perturbation for 1500km and 2000km satellites are 20x20 orders. Under the 24-hour forecast time, atmospheric resistance has a great influence on the precision of LEO satellites at orbit altitude below 1,000km. The forecast deviation of the LEO satellites orbit at 500km reaches 8751.576m. The difference of orbit precision between different atmospheric density models is in the meter level. The orbit deviation by the Standard Atmosphere 1976 and NRLMSISE 2000 atmospheric models respectively reaches 25.494m. Relevant conclusions provide support for the optimization and selection of dynamical models in high precision orbit determination and fast orbit prediction of LEO satellites.

This study aims to address the inefficiencies and time-consuming nature of traditional hot-air anti-icing system designs by introducing reduced order models (ROM) and machine learning techniques to predict anti-icing surface temperature distributions. This study compares several classic neural networks, ultimately proposing two models: POD-AlexNet and multi-CNNs with GRU (MCG). Design variables of the hot-air anti-icing cavity are used as inputs, and the corresponding surface temperature distribution data serve as outputs. The performance of these models is evaluated on the test set. The POD-AlexNet model achieves a mean prediction accuracy of over 95%, while the MCG model reaches 96.97%. Both models significantly outperform traditional numerical simulation methods, delivering faster predictions. The proposed models achieve fast prediction of anti-icing surface temperature distribution while ensuring acceptable prediction accuracy. These models greatly enhance the prediction efficiency over existing numerical simulation approaches, contributing to the design of aircraft hot-air anti-icing systems based on optimization methods such as genetic algorithms.

The solar energy can mitigate the power supply shortage in remote regions for portable irrigation systems. The accurate prediction of solar irradiance is crucial for determining the quantity of solar panels and the power capacity of photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) systems for mobile sprinkler machines. In this study, a prediction method is proposed to forecast the solar irradiance of typical irrigation areas. The impact of the meteorological parameters on the solar irradiance is studied, and four different parameter combinations are formed and considered as input to the prediction model. Based on meteorological data provided by ten typical radiation stations uniformly distributed nationwide, an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model optimized using the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is developed to predict the solar radiation. The prediction accuracy and stability of the proposed method are then evaluated for different input parameters through training and testing. The differences between the prediction performances of models trained based on single-station data and mixed data from multiple stations are also compared. The obtained results show that the proposed model achieves the highest prediction accuracy when the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours ratio, relative humidity, wind speed, and extraterrestrial radiation are used as the input parameters. The prediction effectiveness is also verified based on measured data. The WOA-XGBoost model has higher prediction accuracy than the XGBoost model, with predicted values falling within acceptable ranges. The model developed using mixed data of multiple stations can be applied for forecasting solar irradiance in different regions. This study provides a foundation for the optimization of the configuration of PVPG systems for mobile sprinkler machines.

Based on the land use data of Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Nature Reserve in Sanya, China, in 2009, 2015 and 2022, this paper utilizes the PLUS model to predict the land use changes in the region in 2035 under three development scenarios, namely natural development, urban construction and ecological protection. The results of the study show that the area of building land in this region increased rapidly from 2009-2015, and the corresponding cropland, parkland and arbor forest land as a whole showed a different degree of decline, while the expansion of the area of manmade land, such as building land, basically came to a standstill after 2015. However, the mangrove area in this region has maintained a stable growth trend from 2009-2022. The results of multi-scenario modeling of land in this region showed that the area of building land, unutilized land, and artificial land such as parkland and grassland increased the most under the urban development scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of ecological land, such as arbor forest land and river and lagoon, increases significantly. However, there is no significant increase in the area of mangrove forests under any of the three development scenarios. At present, the task of “returning ponds to wetlands” has been basically completed in this area, and the space for large-scale expansion of mangrove forests in Qingmei Harbor is limited in the future, and the focus of subsequent work should be shifted to the enhancement of the quality and function of mangrove ecosystems.

Agricultural land fires have been linked to various and adverse impacts on ecosystems, food security and the agriculture sector. Understanding the patterns and drivers of agricultural land fires is essential for effective agricultural land fire management. The key objectives of this study were to (1) analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural land fires using satellite remote sensed data, (2) assess a range of environmental conditions that could drive the occurrence of agricultural land fires, (3) determine the best model for predicting agricultural land fires and (4) determine the relative contribution of each environmental condition variable on the best predictive model. We used both univariate and multivariate regressions for the fire prediction capability of four independent environmental conditions (fuel, weather, topographic and anthropogenic). Analysis of historical satellite data revealed that agricultural land fires were more frequent than forested land fires. Our analyses also revealed that fuel condition was the most important variable for predicting agricultural land fires followed by weather, topographic and anthropogenic conditions. This study provides a novel multivariate model for predicting agricultural land fires that harbors the potential to improve agricultural land fire management and reduce fire risk within the agricultural sector.

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to enhancing submersible safety through mathematical modeling and decision-making frameworks. We develop models for submersible location prediction, emergency preparedness, and scenario extrapolation, including a Seawater Density Model, Submersible Mechanical Model, Bayesian Searching Model, and Extended Kalman Filter. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of these models under varying conditions, making them adaptable for different marine environments.In the first section, we focus on accurately locating a submersible after communication loss. The Seawater Density Model employs a hyperbolic tangent function to model depth-dependent density in the Ionian Sea, while the Submersible Mechanical Model simulates underwater dynamics using the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. Uncertainties are addressed using an Extended Kalman Filter, enhancing accuracy, as shown by trajectory and Mean Squared Error (MSE) comparisons.In the second section, we develop a Bayesian Searching Model to efficiently locate a missing submersible. This model iteratively updates location probabilities using a bimodal Gaussian distribution. The search zone is discretized into grids, and simulations demonstrate the model's ability to effectively narrow down the search area and improve detection success.In the third section, we adapt the models to different environments, such as the Caribbean Sea. A warning and obstacle avoidance system is introduced to manage multiple submersibles in close proximity, dynamically adjusting their paths to avoid collisions.Reliability analysis demonstrates the robustness of the models against changes in density and sudden environmental shifts, showing minimal deviation from neutral buoyancy. These results confirm the reliability and adaptability of the models for enhancing submersible safety across various marine settings.

Building fires are preventable incidents that have proven to be both deadly and costly. Addressing their root causes will lead to safer neighbourhoods for families and businesses to live and operate in. Multiple studies have established the effect of residents’ socioeconomic compositions on an area’s building fire rates; however, the existing model based on the classical stepwise regression procedure has several limitations. This paper aims to construct a more accurate predictive model of building fire rates based on a set of explanatory socioeconomic variables. In building the socioeconomic model, a backward elimination by Robust Final Predictor Error (RFPE) criterion is proposed to enhance the forecasting capability of the model. The proposed method has been implemented on the census data and the fire incident data of the South East Queensland region in Australia. A cross-validation was then conducted to assess the model’s accuracy. In addition, comparative analyses of other elimination criteria, such as p-value, adjusted R-squared, Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and predicted residual error sum of squared (PRESS), were conducted. The cross-validation analyses demonstrate that the proposed criterion is a more accurate predictive model based on a couple of goodness-of-fit measures. All in all, the RFPE equation was found to be a suitable criterion for the backward elimination procedure in the socioeconomic modelling of building fires.

In response to increasing urbanization and the need for infrastructure resilient to natural hazards, this study introduces an AI-driven predictive model designed to assess the risk of soil liquefaction. Utilizing advanced ensemble machine learning techniques, the model integrates geotechnical and geographical data to accurately predict the potential for soil liquefaction in urban areas, with a specific focus on Yokohama, Japan. This methodology leverages comprehensive datasets from geological surveys and seismic activity to enhance urban planning and infrastructure development in smart cities. The primary outputs include detailed soil liquefaction risk maps that are essential for effective urban risk management. These maps support urban planners and engineers in making informed decisions, prioritizing safety, and promoting sustainability. The model employs a robust combination of neural networks and gradient boosting decision trees to analyze and predict data points, assessing soil susceptibility to liquefaction during seismic events. Notably, the model achieves high accuracy in predicting soil classifications and N-values, which are critical for evaluating soil liquefaction risk. Validation against an extensive dataset from geotechnical surveys confirms the model’s practical effectiveness. Moreover, the results highlight the transformative potential of AI in enhancing geotechnical risk assessments and improving the resilience of urban areas against natural hazards.

Predicting ground reaction forces (GRFs) and ground reaction moments (GRMs) through a biomechanical model-based approach offers advantages for biomechanical analysis, particularly in situations where the application of a statistical model is limited by insufficient training data. However, the current prediction method is unsuitable for clinical applications due to its long computational time. The present study developed a new optical motion capture (OMC)-based method to predict GRFs, GRMs, and joint torques. The proposed approach performed the estimation process by distributing external forces, as determined by the equation of motion, between the left and right feet based on foot deformations, thereby predicting the GRFs and GRMs without relying on machine learning or optimization techniques. We investigated the prediction accuracy during walking by comparing a conventional analysis using a force plate with the OMC results. The comparison revealed excellent or strong correlations between the prediction and measurement for all GRFs, GRMs, and lower limb joint torques. The proposed method, which provides practical estimation with low computational cost, facilitates efficient biomechanical analysis and rapid feedback of analysis results, thereby increasing its applicability for kinetics estimation in clinical settings.

Dioscorea composita is a plant native to México and Central America with a high concentration of diosgenin precursors. Currently, México is one of the two most important countries producers of this yam; however, climate change is altering the environmental conditions of its natural habits, threatening its preservation and productivity. This is why this research was focused to characterize the eco-geography of D. composita and predict its potential geographic distribution under climate change scenarios in México-Central America. A collection of 408 geo-referenced accessions was used to determine its climatic adaptation, ecological descriptors, and the current and future potential geographic distribution, which was modeled with MaxEnt model through the Kuenm R-package. For future climate scenarios, an ensemble of the GCMs HadGEM-ES and CCSM4 was used. Results showed that D. composita adapts to warm humid and very humid agro-climates and that the most contributing variables for its presence are annual and seasonal moisture availability indices, seasonal photoperiod, annual thermal range, Bio14 and Bio11. The year 2050 RCP 4.5 climate scenario would contract the potential distribution of D. composita, whilst the 2050 RCP 8.5 scenario would expand it, indicating that this species could be a good crop option under this scenario of emissions.

Aim: This study was to evaluate the predictive value of tumor marker (TM) score in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) as a first-line chemotherapy. Materials/Methods: From September 2020 to December 2022, 371 HCC patients treated with Atez/Bev, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), fucosylated AFP (AFP-L3) and des gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were measured at introducing Atez/Bev. Elevations of AFP (≥100 ng/ml), AFP-L3 (≥10%), and DCP (≥100 mAU/ml) were treated as positive, and the number of positive tumor marker was summed up and used as the previously proposed TM score. Hepatic reserve function was assessed with modified albumin-bilirubin grade (mALBI). Predictive values for prognosis were evaluated, retrospectively. Results: TM score 0 was in 81 (21.8%), score 1 in 110 (29.6%), score 2 in 112 (29.9%), and score 3 in 68 (18.3%), respectively. Median overall survival (OS) was not applicable [NA] (95% CI NA-NA), 24.0 months (95% CI 17.8-NA), 16.7 months (95% CI 17.8-NA) and NA (95%CI 8.3-NA) for TM scores 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively (p<0.001). Median progression free survival (PFS) was also 16.5 months (95% CI 8.0-not applicable [NA]), 13.8 months (95% CI 10.6-21.3) and 7.7 months (95% CI 5.3-8.9), 5.8 months (95%CI 3.0-7.6), respectively (p<0.001). OS was stratified well in mALBI 1/2a as well as in mALBI 2a/2b. Whereas, PFS was well stratified in mALBI 2a/2b, while not in mALBI 1/2a. Conclusion: The TM score was a simple and useful prognostic marker in HCC patients treated with Atez/Bev.

In this paper, we propose an adaptive duty-cycled hybrid X-MAC (ADX-MAC) protocol for energy-efficient forest fire prediction. The X-MAC protocol acquires the additional environmental status collected by each forest fire monitoring sensor for a certain period. And, based on these values, the length of sleep interval of duty-cycle is changed to efficiently calculate the risk of occurrence of forest fire according to the mountain environment. The performance of the proposed ADX-MAC protocol was verified through experiments the proposed ADX-MAC protocol improves throughput by 19% and was more energy-efficient by 24% compared to X-MAC protocol. As the probability of forest fires increases, the length of the duty cycle is shortened, confirming that the forest fires are detected at a faster cycle.

Prunus armeniaca L. is the native species of cultivated apricot, which is important information for studying the origin, succession pattern, pest control, sustainable development of biodiversity of economic tree species of the genus Apricot, etc. However, with global climate change and increasingly intense human activities, the survival environment of Prunus armeniaca L. is under serious stress, and exploring the potential survival space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the health and development of Prunus armeniaca L.. Exploring the potential living space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the healthy development of Prunus armeniaca L. The Yili River Valley is a typical distribution area of Prunus armeniaca L. . Exploring the potential distribution suitable area of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley and analyzing its future change trend can provide scientific guidance for the protection, development, and utilization of Prunus armeniaca L.. Based on the Geographic Information System software platform combined with the MaxEnt Model, we simulated the potential distribution areas and the degree of adaptation of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley, and predicted the potential distribution changes of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future under different situations. Based on the above methods, the following results were obtained: (1) The MaxEnt Model simulated the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. with high accuracy and an AUC value of 0.969, and the area of the currently suitable area for Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley was about 10407.77 km2, accounting for about 18.45% of the overall land area of the Yili River Valley; the area of the highly suitable area was about 1380.9 km², accounting for about 13.26%, the area of the medium suitable zone is about 2830.15km², and the area of low suitable zone is about 6196.05km². (2) The maximum increase in the total area of the suitable zone under the future low-radiation forcing scenario is 11.49%, and the minimum increase under the future medium-high forcing scenario is 4.94%. (3) The overall migration was in the southwest direction, with the largest migration angle under the SSP245 scenario and the largest migration distance under the SSP585 scenario. Under the background of future climate change, there is a tendency for the potential habitat of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley to expand from low altitude to high altitude, and altitude is the dominant geographic factor influencing the distribution of Prunus armeniaca L.. By simulating and studying the potential geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley under the background of climate change, we can reveal the response mechanism between the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. and the natural environment, which can provide scientific guidance and data support for the exploitation and protection of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future.

During the last years, the increasing evidence of dietary antioxidant compounds and reducing chronic diseases and the relationship between diet and health have promoted an important innovation on the baked product sector, aiming at healthier formulations. This study aims to develop a tool based on mathematical models to predict baked goods total antioxidant capacity (TAC). The high variability of antioxidant properties of flours based on the aspects related to type of grains, varieties, proximal composition and processing, among others, makes very difficult to innovate on food product development without specific analysis. Using Total phenol content (TP), Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) and Ferric reducing antioxidant power assay (FRAP) as proxies of antioxidant capacity. Three Bayesian-type models are proposed based on a double exponential parameterised curve that reflects the initial decrease and subsequent increase as a consequence of the observed processes of degradation and generation, respectively, of the antioxidant compounds. Once the values of the main parameters of each curve have been determined, support vector machines (SVR) with exponential kernel were used to predict, based on the temperature and duration of baking as well as the values of proteins and fibers of each native grain, the values of TAC during the baking time.

As the educational landscape evolves, understanding and fostering student adaptability has become increasingly critical. This study presents a comparative analysis of (XAI) techniques to interpret machine learning models aimed at classifying student adaptability levels. Leveraging a robust dataset, we employed several machine learning algorithms with a particular focus on Random Forest, which demonstrated a 91% accuracy. Our study utilizes (SHAP), (LIME), Anchors, (ALE), and counterfactual explanations to reveal the specific contributions of various features impacting adaptability predictions. Consistently, 'Class Duration' and 'Financial Condition' emerge as key factors, while the study also underscores the subtle effects of 'Institution Type' and 'Load-shedding'. This multi-faceted interpretability approach bridges the gap between machine learning performance and educational relevance, presenting a model that not only predicts but also explains the dynamic factors influencing student adaptability. The synthesized insights advocate for educational policies accommodating socioeconomic factors, instructional time, and infrastructure stability to enhance student adaptability. The implications extend to informed and personalized educational interventions, fostering an adaptable learning environment. This methodical research contributes to responsible AI application in education, promoting predictive and interpretable models for equitable and effective educational strategies.

To enable purposeful design and implementation of automated concrete technologies, precise assessment and prediction of the complex material flow at various stages of the process chain are necessary. This paper investigates the intermediate stage of the extrusion and deposition processes in extrusion-based 3D-concrete-printing, using a numerical model based on the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM). In PFEM, due to the Lagrangian description of motion, remeshing algorithms and the alpha shape method are used to track the free surface during large deformation scenarios. The Bingham constitutive model was used for describing the rheological behaviour of fresh concrete. This model is validated by comparing the numerically predicted layer geometries with those obtained from laboratory 3D printing experiments. Extensive parametric studies were then conducted using the numerical simulation, delineating the influence of process and material parameters on the layer geometries, the dynamic surface forces generated under the extrusion nozzle and the inter-layer interactions.

This research is focused on two key areas. The first is mapping the 2022 flood in the Red River of the North near Grafton, North Dakota, US, and the second is evaluating the scour potential of the Grafton Bridge. Local scour of bridge piers can cause hydraulic structures such as bridge piers and abutments to fail during floods, making it a crucial area of investigation. To collect bathymetry and discharge data during low and high flow conditions, including a flood event with a 16.5-year return period in 2022, an Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV) incorporated with LiDAR DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Map was used. Flood mapping and evaluation of local scour around the bridge pier were conducted using the HEC-RAS 6.0.0 software, which utilizes the Colorado State University method as a default equation. This research demonstrates the potential of ASVs in collecting critical data and LiDAR DEM data is an efficient method for flood mapping and determining scour potential, as it integrates bathymetry, flow velocity, and flood prediction.

A groundbreaking integrated predictive model, termed Cyber Forensics Behavioral Analysis (CFBA), has been developed in an environment characterized by rapidly evolving and increasingly sophisticated cyber threats. This model merges Cyber Behavioral Sciences with Digital Forensics to enhance the prediction accuracy and effectiveness of cyber threats originating from specific Autonomous System Numbers (ASNs). It has been observed that traditional cybersecurity strategies, predominantly focused on technical aspects, must be improved in addressing the complex landscape of cyber threats. Consequently, a novel approach has been proposed in this research, combining technical expertise with insights into the behavior of cybercriminals, thereby addressing a significant gap in existing methodologies. A mixed-methods approach has been employed in the study, integrating quantitative and qualitative research methods. This approach has created a comprehensive framework incorporating digital forensics, cybersecurity, computer science, forensic psychology, and the cyber behavioral sciences which incorporates disciplines scuch as cyberpsychology and forensic cyberpsychology. The study is anchored around four key concepts: (1) Forensic Cyberpsychology, which focuses on understanding psychological aspects of cybercriminal behavior; (2) Digital Forensics, involving the collection and analysis of digital evidence from cyber incidents; (3) Predictive Modeling, which utilizes historical data and patterns to anticipate potential cyber threats; and (4) the Cyber Behavioral Analysis Metric (CBAM) and Cyber Behavioral Score (CBS), tools designed for evaluating and scoring ASNs based on their behavior in terms of cybersecurity threat risks. Challenges encountered in the development of this integration have been significant. Initial setbacks included the misalignment of traditional cyber defense methods with the evolving nature of cyber threats and the absence of a holistic approach in pre-existing models. Through the narrative of these challenges and the subsequent development of the CFBA model, the research highlights the necessity for an interdisciplinary approach to cybersecurity. The outcomes of this study are not merely theoretical but provide practical, actionable tools and frameworks that markedly improve the precision of predicting cyber threats, especially from ASNs. The CFBA model represents a significant shift in cybersecurity strategies, highlighting the importance of integrating behavioral insights with technical knowledge. The study emphasizes the need for ongoing research and collaboration in cybersecurity, advocating for an approach that is as comprehensive and multifaceted as the cyber threats it seeks to mitigate. This research has been conducted to contribute significantly to cybersecurity, offering new perspectives and methodologies in a rapidly changing domain.

In the dynamic realm of agribusiness construction, firms are striving to bolster their operational efficiency and profitability amidst the global shift from traditional farming to commercial agriculture. This transition has intensified the demand for sophisticated infrastructure development, presenting new challenges for commercial managers. A critical hurdle is the accurate estimation of profitability for prospective contracts, a task often reliant on intuition rather than data-driven methods. To address this, we propose the development of a mathematical model utilising machine learning techniques to predict contract profitability and identify influential factors. This model aims to aid in bid decision-making, financial forecasting, and enhancing competitiveness in the marketplace. Furthermore, it would provide valuable insights into how altering specific contract attributes might affect predicted profitability. The implementation of such a system necessitates close collaboration between IT professionals and construction executives. This study delineates the development of this predictive model, outlining the data analysis process and the application of machine learning algorithms to tackle this complex commercial challenge. The ultimate goal is to bridge the gap between intuitive estimation and data-driven prediction, thereby enhancing the financial performance and strategic decision-making capabilities of firms in the agribusiness construction sector.

The deformation monitoring information of concrete dams contains some high-frequency com-ponents, and the high-frequency components are strongly nonlinear, which reduces the accuracy of dam deformation prediction. In order to solve such problems, this paper proposes a concrete dam deformation monitoring model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with wavelet threshold noise reduction and sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimization of long short-term memory network (LSTM). The model uses EMD combined with wavelet threshold to decompose and denoise the measured deformation data. On this basis, the LSTM model based on SSA optimization is used to mine the nonlinear function relationship between the reconstructed monitoring data and various influencing factors. The example analysis shows that the model has good calculation speed, fitting and prediction accuracy and it can effectively mine the date char-acteristics inherent in the measured deformation, and reduce the influence of noise components on the modeling accuracy.

Conducted within the scope of geochemical exploration in Eastern Thailand, this study aims to detect geochemical anomalies and potential mineral deposits. The objective was to interpret intricate spatial dispersion patterns and concentration levels of deposit pathfinder elements, specifically arsenic (As), copper (Cu), and zinc (Zn), using a comprehensive array of stream sediment geochemistry data. Methodologies involved integrating multifractal properties and traditional statistics, facilitated by the GeoDAS and ArcGIS platforms as instrumental analytical tools. In total, 5,376 stream sediment samples were collected and evaluated, leading to the development of an in-depth geochemical map. The results indicated distinct geological units marked by substantially elevated average values of the aforementioned elements. Identification of geochemical anomalies was achieved through the spatial distribution method and the subsequent application of the Spectrum-Area (S-A) multifractal model. An intriguing link was found between high As concentrations and gold deposits in the area, suggesting As as a viable pathfinder element for gold mineralization. The anomaly maps, generated from the stream sediment data, spotlighted potential zones of interest, offering valuable guidance for future mineral exploration and geological inquiries. Nonetheless, it is vital to recognize that the increased values noted in these maps may be influenced by regional geological factors, emphasizing the necessity for a diverse set of analytical methods for accurate interpretation. The study's significance lies in its pioneering use of the S-A multifractal model in geochemical data analysis. This innovative approach has deepened our comprehension of geochemical dispersion patterns and improved the precision of mineral exploration.

Background: Accurate prediction of patients’ response to therapy is clinically indispensable, howbeit challenging. With increased understanding of the human genome and malignancies, there is the renaissance of in silico pharmacogenomics with renewed interest in drug response predictability based on gene-drug interaction. Objective: Evidence-based transcript-proteome profiling is essential for synthesizing clinically applicable algorithms for predicting response to anticancer therapy, including immune checkpoint blockade (ICBT); thus, saving physicians’ time, reducing polypharmacy, and curtailing unnecessary treatment expense. In this study, we tested and validated the hypothesis that a selected proteomic signature in ICBT-naïve patients is sufficient for the prediction of response to ICBT. Methods: Using a multimodal approach consisting of computational pharmacogenomics, transcript-proteome analytics, mathematical modeling, and machine learning systems; we delineated therapy-sensitivity and stratified patients into graduated response groups based on their proteomic profile. Protein expression levels in our cohort tissue specimens were evaluated based on T cell- and non-T cell- inflamed phenotypes by immunohistochemistry. Results: We established β-catenin, PDL1, CD3 and CD8 expression-based ICBT response model. Statistical regression models validated the predictive association between our predefined algorithms and therapeutic outcome. Interestingly, our 4-gene prediction classifier was constitutively independent of tumor tissue origin, correctly stratified patients into high-, low-, and non- responders pre-treatment, with high prediction accuracy, and exhibited good association with patients’ performance status and prognosis (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the possibility of accurate proteomics based ICBT response prediction and provide a putative basis for drug response prediction based on selective proteome profile in untreated cancer patients.

Color change is the most obvious characteristic of tomato ripening stage and an important indicator of tomato ripening condition, which directly affects the commodity value of tomato. To visualize the color change of tomato fruit in mature stage, a gated recurrent unit network with an encoder-decoder structure that dynamically simulates tomato growth and development with time-dependent lines using tomato color and shape as real-time data was proposed in this paper. Firstly, the .json file was converted into a mask.png file, the tomato mask was extracted, and the tomato was separated from the complex background environment, and the tomato growth and development data set was successfully constructed. Then, a network of gated recurrent units with encoder-decoder structure was constructed to predict the future growth trend of tomato under different greenhouse temperatures. The experimental results showed that for the gated recurrent unit network of encoder-decoder structure proposed, when the hidden layer number was 1 and hidden layer number was 512, a high consistency and similarity between the model predicted image sequence and the actual growth and development image sequence would be realized, and the structural similarity index measure was 0.746. It was proved that when the average temperature was 24.93℃, the average soil temperature was 24.06℃, and the average light intensity was 11.26 Klux, the environment was the most suitable for tomato growth. The environmental data-driven tomato growth model was constructed to explore the growth status of tomato under different environmental conditions, thus to understand the growth status of tomato in time. The statement provided a theoretical foundation for determining the optimal greenhouse environmental conditions to achieve tomato maturity. And it offered recommendations for investigating the growth cycle of tomatoes, as well as technical assistance for standardized cultivation in solar greenhouses.

The present work evaluates the food effect on the absorption of rivaroxaban (Riva), a BCS II drug, from the orally administered commercial immediate-release tablet (Xarelto IR) using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and conventional in vitro- in vivo correlation (IVIVC) models. The bioavailability of Riva upon oral administration of Xarelto IR tablet is reported to exhibit a positive food effect. The PBPK model for Riva was developed and verified using the previously reported in vivo data for oral solution (5 and 10 mg) and Xarelto IR tablet (5 and 10 mg dose strength). Once the PBPK model was established, the in vivo performance of the tablet formulation with the higher dose strength (Xarelto IR tablet 20 mg in fasted and fed state) was predicted using the experimentally obtained data of in vitro permeability, biorelevant solubility and in vitro dynamic dissolution data using United States Pharmacopeia (USP) IV flow-through cell apparatus. In addition, the mathematical IVIVC model was developed using the in vitro dissolution and in vivo profile of 20 mg strength Xarelto IR tablet in fasted condition. Using the developed IVIVC model, the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile of the Xarelto IR tablet in fed condition was predicted and compared with the PK parameters obtained via the PBPK model. A virtual in vivo PK study was designed using a single-dose, 3-treatment cross-over trial in 50 subjects to predict the PK profile of the Xarelto® IR tablet in the fed state. Overall, the results obtained from the IVIVC model were found to be comparable with that from the PBPK model. The outcome from both the model pointed to the positive food effect on the in vivo profile of the Riva. The developed models thus can be effectively extended to establish bioequivalence for the marketed and novel complex formulations of Riva such as amorphous solid dispersions.

Water resource is considered as a significant factor in development of regional environment and society. Water consumption prediction can provide important decision basis for the regional water supply scheduling optimisations. According to the periodicity and randomness nature of the daily water consumption data, a Markov modified autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed in this study. The proposed model, combined with the Markov chain, can correct the prediction error, reduce the continuous superposition of prediction error, and improve the prediction accuracy of future daily water consumption data. The daily water consumption data of different monitoring points are used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the future water consumption is predicted, in the study area. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the prediction error compared to the ARIMA.

Skin melanoma presents increasing prevalence and poor outcomes. Progression to aggressive stages is characterized by overexpression of the transcription factor E2F1 and activation of downstream prometastatic gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Appropriate therapeutic manipulation of the E2F1-governed GRNs holds the potential to prevent metastasis however, these networks entail complex feedback and feedforward regulatory motifs among various regulatory layers, which make it difficult to identify druggable components. To this end, computational approaches such as mathematical modeling and virtual screening are important tools to unveil the dynamics of these signaling networks and identify critical components that could be further explored as therapeutic targets. Herein, we integrated a well-established E2F1-mediated epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) map with transcriptomics data from E2F1-expressing melanoma cells to reconstruct a core regulatory network underlying aggressive melanoma. Using logic-based in silico perturbation experiments of a core regulatory network, we identified that simultaneous perturbation of Protein kinase B (AKT1) and oncoprotein murine double minute 2 (MDM2) drastically reduces EMT in melanoma. Using the structures of the two protein signatures, virtual screening strategies were performed with the FDA-approved drug library. Thus, by combining drug repurposing and computer-aided drug design techniques, followed by molecular dynamics simulation analysis identified two potent drugs (Cialis and Finasteride) that can efficiently inhibit AKT1 and MDM2 protein signatures respectively, and with better therapeutic properties. We proposed that these two drugs could be considered for the development of therapeutic strategies for the management of aggressive melanoma.

Prediction models in mobility and transportation maintenance systems have been dramatically improved through using machine learning methods. This paper proposes novel machine learning models for an intelligent road inspection. The traditional road inspection systems based on the pavement condition index (PCI) are often associated with the critical safety, energy and cost issues. Alternatively, the proposed models utilize surface deflection data from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) tests to predict the PCI. Machine learning methods are the single multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks as well their hybrids, i.e., Levenberg-Marquardt (MLP-LM), scaled conjugate gradient (MLP-SCG), imperialist competitive (RBF-ICA), and genetic algorithms (RBF-GA). Furthermore, the committee machine intelligent systems (CMIS) method was adopted to combine the results and improve the accuracy of the modeling. The results of the analysis have been verified through using four criteria of average percent relative error (APRE), average absolute percent relative error (AAPRE), root mean square error (RMSE), and standard error (SD). The CMIS model outperforms other models with the promising results of APRE=2.3303, AAPRE=11.6768, RMSE=12.0056, and SD=0.0210.

This paper describes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model used to simulate the dynamics of the OC3 reference design of a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Spar unit. It crafts an advanced neural network with an encoder-decoder architecture capable of predicting the Spar’s motion and fairlead tensions time series. These predictions are based on wind and wave excitations across various operational and extreme conditions. The LSTM network, trained on an extensive dataset from over 300 fully coupled simulation scenarios using OpenFAST, ensures a robust framework that captures the complex dynamics of floating platform under diverse environmental scenarios. This framework’s effectiveness is further verified by thoroughly evaluating the model’s performance, leveraging comparative statistics and accuracy assessments to highlight its reliability. This methodology contributes to substantial reductions in computational time. This research aims to provide critical insights that facilitate the optimization of offshore wind turbines, marking a step forward in the quest for more efficient and dependable renewable energy solutions.

Appropriate estimation of soil settlement is of significant importance since it directly influences the performance of building and infrastructures that are built on soil. In particular, the settlement of fine-grained soils is critical because of low permeability and continuous settlement with time. Coefficient of consolidation (C_c) is a key parameter to estimate settlement of fine-grained soil layers. However, estimation of this parameter is time consuming, needs skilled technicians, and specific equipment. In this study, C_c was estimated using several soil parameters such as liquid limit (LL), plastic limit (PL), and initial void ratio (e₀). Estimating such parameters in laboratory is straight forward and needs substantially less time and cost compared to conventional tests to estimate C_c such as oedometer test. This study presents a novel prediction model for C_c of fine-grained soils using gene-expression programming (GEP). GEP is a biologically inspired technique capable of offering closed-form solution for the optimal solution. A database consisted of 108 different data points was used to develop the model. A closed-form equation solution was derived to estimate C_c based on LL, PL, and e₀. The performance of developed GEP-based model was evaluated through coefficient of determination (R²), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean average error (MAE). High R² and low error values indicated the descent performance of the model. Furthermore, the model was evaluated using the additional performance measures and met all the suggested criteria. Furthermore, the model had a better performance in terms of R², RMSE, and MAE compared to most of existing models. It is expected that the developed model will decrease the time and cost associate with determining C_c of fine-grained soils.Keywords: evolutionary model, gene-expression programming (GEP), prediction, soil compression index, estimation, soil engineering, soil informatics, civil engineering, machine learning, data science, big data, soft computing, deep learning, forecasting, subject classification codes, construction informatics, computational intelligence (CI), artificial intelligence (AI), estimation

Short-circuit blowing is an important technical means to ensure the rapid surfacing of submersible. In order to study the impact of seven multiple manipulation factors of three levels on blowing, a proportional short-circuit blowing model test bench had been built and L18(37) orthogonal experiments were carried out; then, using Back propagation neural network and Pearson correlation analysis, the experimental data were trained and predicted, correlation between individual factor and blowing was further studied as supplement of orthogonal experiments. It had been proved that both multi-factor combination and individual including blowing duration, sea tank back pressure, the gas blowing pressure of the cylinder group, and sea valve flowing area had larger influence, whose correlation coefficients were 0.6535, 0.8105, 0.5569, 0.5373, of which the F-ratio of blowing duration is over critical value 3.24. And statistical evaluation indicators of Back propagation neural network were between 10e-2 and 10e-13, relative error was less than 3%, and prediction error accuracy was 100%. Based on the results above, a reasonable prediction method for submersible short-circuit blowing had been formed and suggestions on engineering design and operations were proposed, including advantage of short-circuit blowing method, initial condition settings and manipulation strategy.

The combination of artificial intelligence algorithms and numerical methods has recently become popular in the prediction of macroscopic and microscopic hydrodynamics parameters of bubble column reactors. The multi inputs and outputs machine learning can cover small phase interactions or large fluid behavior in industrial domains. This numerical combination can develop the smart multiphase bubble column reactor with the ability of low-cost computational time. It can also decrease case studies for the optimization process when big data is appropriately used during learning. There are still many model parameters that need to be optimized for a very accurate artificial algorithm, including data processing and initialization, the combination of inputs and outputs, number of inputs and model tuning parameters. For this study, we aim to train four inputs big data during learning process by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system or adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method, and we consider the superficial gas velocity as one of the input variables, while for the first time, one of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) outputs named gas velocity is used as an output of the artificial algorithm. The results show that the increasing number of input variables improves the intelligence of the ANFIS method up to , and the number of rules during learning process has a significant effect on the accuracy of this type of modeling. The results also show that propper selection of model parameters results in more accuracy in prediction of the flow characteristics in the column structure.

Time-series analysis is a widely used technique across various fields and industries, as it helps in understanding, predicting, and forecasting the behavior of data points over time. These fields include but are not limited to finance, economics, healthcare, transportation, etc. In the case of this paper, we have focused on finance. Predicting future values of financial time series offers several benefits. Accurate forecasts can help investors make better decisions about their investments. To predict future values, deep learning algorithms are commonly used since it is an effective method with complex data. In this study, we conduct a study that investigates the use of different data pre-processing techniques on deep learning algorithms in predicting the time series values. To conduct this experimental study, we utilize an open source software, which using long short-term memory technique as the representative deep learning technique, published in github software code repository platform. With this study, we investigate the effects of autoencoder and discrete wavelet transform data pre-processing techniques in time-series prediction. We discuss the details of the experimental study and report our results. The results show that time series prediction (using backtesting methodology) without any data pre-processing leads to 12.6% for mean absolute percentage error. The results also show that, time series prediction with the data preprocessing techniques (Wavelet Transform and Stacked Autoencoder) lead to 3.4%

Remaining service life (RSL) of pavement, as a sign of future pavement performance, has always received growing attention from pavement engineers. The RSL describes the time from the moment of pavement inspection until such a time when a major repair or reconstruction is required. The conventional approach to determining RSL involves using non-destructive tests. These tests, in addition to being costly, interfere with traffic flow and compromise users' safety. In this paper, surface distresses of pavement have been used to estimate the pavement’s RSL in order to eliminate the aforementioned problems and challenges. To implement the proposed theory, 105 flexible pavement segments were taken from Shahrood-Damghan Highway (Highway 44) in Iran. For each pavement segment, the type, severity, and extent of surface damage and pavement condition index (PCI) were determined. The pavement RSL was then estimated using non-destructive tests include Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). After completing the dataset, the modeling was conducted to predict RSL using three techniques include Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Regression Optimized by Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (SVR-FOA), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). All three techniques estimated the RSL of the pavement by selecting the PCI as input. The Correlation Coefficient (CC), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Scattered Index (SI), and Willmott’s Index of agreement (WI) criteria were used to examine the performance of the three techniques adopted in this study. In the end, it was found that GEP with values of 0.874, 0.598, 0.601, and 0.807 for CC, SI, NSE, and WI criteria, respectively, had the highest accuracy in predicting the RSL of pavement.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

This paper describes the E-Sense Artificial Intelligence system. It comprises of a memory model with 2 levels of information and then a more neural layer above that. The lower memory level stores source data in a Markov (n-gram) structure that is unweighted. Then a middle ontology level is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information. Each phase re-structures from an ensemble to a tree, where the information transposition may be from horizontal set-based sequences into more vertical, typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be stored in the calling module. The success of the ontology typing is open to question, but results produced answers based more on use and context. The third level is more functional, where each function can represent a subset of the base data and learn how to transpose across it. The functional structures are shown to be quite orthogonal, or separate and are made from nodes with a progressive type of capability, including unordered to ordered. Comparisons with the columnar structure of the neural cortex can be made and the idea of ordinal learning, or just learning relative positions, is introduced. While this is still a work in progress, it offers a different architecture to the current favourites and may be able to give different views of the data from what they can provide.

Machine unlearning is a critical process designed to allow machine learning models to forget or remove specific data upon request, particularly for privacy protection. While the primary objective of unlearning is to safeguard sensitive information, it introduces substantial privacy and security risks. This paper explores the two major categories of threats to machine unlearning: privacy attacks and security attacks. Privacy attacks, such as membership inference and model inversion, exploit residual information to infer or reconstruct sensitive data that should have been erased. Security attacks, particularly specific data poisoning, involve the injection of malicious data into the training process, which may leave lingering effects even after the unlearning process. In this paper, we provide an in-depth examination of these threats and propose several defense mechanisms. Differential privacy, adversarial training, and query limitations are highlighted as key defenses against privacy attacks, while data validation, adversarial examples, and post-unlearning audits are critical in mitigating security risks. Additionally, we discuss emerging methodologies like data provenance tracking and fine-tuning as crucial for ensuring unlearning processes are thorough and effective. Through these analyses, we aim to provide a comprehensive framework for strengthening the security and privacy of machine unlearning systems, enabling their broader adoption across industries such as healthcare, finance, and AI-driven technologies.

In this paper, we integrate the Finite Element Method (FEM) with orthogonal polynomial approximation in high-dimensional spaces to innovatively model the Moon’s surface gravity anomaly. Our aim is to approximate solutions to Laplace’s classical differential equations of gravity, employing classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions. Using classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions, the least-squares approximation was used to approximate discrete samples of the approximation function. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. The first application of this project is to substitute the globally-valid classical spherical harmonic series of approximations with locally-valid series of orthogonal polynomial approximations (i.e. using the FEM approach). With an error tolerance set at 10−9ms−2, we use this method to adapt the gravity model radially upwards from the lunar surface. The results showcase a need for a higher degree of approximation on and near the lunar surface, with the necessity decreasing as the radius increases. Notably, this method achieves a computational speedup of five orders of magnitude when applying the method to radial adaptation. More intrinsically, our second application involves using the methodology as an effective tool in solving boundary value problems. Specifically, we implement this approach to solve classical differential equations involved with high precision, long-term orbit propagation. This application provides a four-order of magnitude speedup in computational time while maintaining an error within the 10−10ms−2 error range for various orbit propagation tests. Alongside the advancements in orthogonal approximation theory, the FEM enables revolutionary speedups in orbit propagation without compromising accuracy.

This study systematically addresses the challenge of accurately modeling memristors, focusing on four distinct types doped with tungsten, tin, chromium, and carbon, fabricated by Known Inc. A comprehensive characterization was performed by subjecting the devices to sinusoidal excitations with varying frequencies and amplitudes, followed by data averaging and high-frequency filtering. The resulting measurements were fitted using three prominent memristor models: VTEAM, MMS, and Yakopcic, with additional bespoke modifications assessed. These models, typically formulated as coupled algebraic-differential equations integrating electrical quantities (voltage and current) with internal state variables governing device dynamics, were optimized using two robust approaches: (1) interior-point optimization with gradient-based search, and (2) Nelder-Mead gradient-free optimization, both with box constraints applied. A thorough comparison and discussion of the optimized model parameters ensued, accompanied by an examination of sensitivity to diverse frequency and amplitude ranges. The findings inform conclusions and provide a foundation for future refinements, underscoring the importance of multi-model evaluation and advanced optimization strategies in precise memristor modeling. The presented methodology offers a valuable framework for elucidating optimal modeling paradigms tailored to specific memristor architectures and operating regimes, ultimately enhancing their integration in emerging neuromorphic and computational applications.