Version 1
: Received: 3 April 2018 / Approved: 4 April 2018 / Online: 4 April 2018 (08:26:21 CEST)
How to cite:
Martins, D.; Kruk, N.S.; Queiroz, P.I.B.D.; Souza Júnior, W.C.D.; Tschöke, G.V. Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County. Preprints2018, 2018040055. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Martins, D.; Kruk, N.S.; Queiroz, P.I.B.D.; Souza Júnior, W.C.D.; Tschöke, G.V. Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County. Preprints 2018, 2018040055. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Martins, D.; Kruk, N.S.; Queiroz, P.I.B.D.; Souza Júnior, W.C.D.; Tschöke, G.V. Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County. Preprints2018, 2018040055. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
APA Style
Martins, D., Kruk, N.S., Queiroz, P.I.B.D., Souza Júnior, W.C.D., & Tschöke, G.V. (2018). Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Martins, D., Wilson Cabral de Souza Júnior and Gabriele Vanessa Tschöke. 2018 "Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Abstract
Drainage systems are usually dimensioned for design storms based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of extreme precipitation. For each location, different IDF curves are established based on local hydrological conditions. Recent research shows that these curves also vary with time, and should be updated with recent data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate IDF curves obtained from precipitation simulations from the Eta RCM, comparing them with IDF curves obtained from data of a rainfall station. Climate models can be a useful tool for assessing the impacts of climate changes on drainage systems, referring precipitation forecasts. In this study, the Eta RCM was forced by two global climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. The bias of the precipitation data, generated by RCM models, was corrected using a Gamma distribution. The Juqueriquerê River Basin, in the cities of Caraguatatuba and São Sebastião, São Paulo State, Brazil, was chosen as a case study. The results show a good correlation between the IDF curves of simulated and observed rainfall for the control period (1960-2005), indicating the strong possibility of using the Eta RCM precipitation forecasts for 2007 - 2099 to establish future IDFs thereby, taking into account climate changes in urban drainage design.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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