Version 1
: Received: 17 August 2023 / Approved: 18 August 2023 / Online: 21 August 2023 (02:30:00 CEST)
How to cite:
Apenteng, O.O.; Rasmussen, P.; Conrady, B. Prediction Model for the Effects of Tourism on the Spread of HIV and AIDS. Preprints2023, 2023081372. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1372.v1
Apenteng, O.O.; Rasmussen, P.; Conrady, B. Prediction Model for the Effects of Tourism on the Spread of HIV and AIDS. Preprints 2023, 2023081372. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1372.v1
Apenteng, O.O.; Rasmussen, P.; Conrady, B. Prediction Model for the Effects of Tourism on the Spread of HIV and AIDS. Preprints2023, 2023081372. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1372.v1
APA Style
Apenteng, O.O., Rasmussen, P., & Conrady, B. (2023). Prediction Model for the Effects of Tourism on the Spread of HIV and AIDS. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1372.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Apenteng, O.O., Philip Rasmussen and Beate Conrady. 2023 "Prediction Model for the Effects of Tourism on the Spread of HIV and AIDS" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1372.v1
Abstract
To assess the impact of tourism on the incidence of HIV and AIDS using Malaysian epidemiological data over the period of 1986-2011 with additional consideration for newborns infected with HIV. A population-level mathematical model was used to investigate: i) the role of tourism in the spread of HIV and measures used to reduce HIV spread in Malaysia; ii) whether the stability of infectious disease transmission is dependent on the flow of visiting tourists. We first derived an equation for the reproduction number (R0) threshold to quantify the contagiousness of HIV in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the effect of various parameters on HIV transmission with respect to the increase in tourism. Our findings suggest that a stable disease-free state is sustainable based on the low value of R0 was 0.0017. This result is encouraging from a public health perspective. Approximately 14% of outbound tourists who leave the country return infected with HIV and the difference between the rate at which tourists move to the susceptible category and the rate at which tourists leave the susceptible is category is 12%. Estimated parameters for the influx of tourist rates, δ=1.1540x10-3[1.1477x10-3 - 1.15954x10-3], δ1=7.7901x10-4[7.7867x10-4 - 7.79418x10-4], and δ2=1.4030x10-8[-7.2287x10-7-7.5096x10-7], significantly impacted the spread of HIV in Malaysia. Some significant adjustments were made to the expected parameters. The methods used are helpful to public health analyses and provide a framework for epidemiological modeling of HIV spread among tourists. The trend and magnitude of tourist inflows may be determinants in the incidence of HIV and AIDS in Malaysia.
Keywords
Tourism; HIV; AIDS; Malaysia, mathematical model; reproduction number; sensitivity analysis
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Computational Mathematics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
