Although the European reports highlight an increase in community-acquired Legionnaires’ disease cases, the risk of Legionella spp. in private houses is underestimated. In Pisa (Italy) we performed a three-year survey on Legionella presence in 121 buildings with an independent hot water production (IB); 64 buildings with a central hot water production (CB); and 35 buildings with a solar thermal system for hot water production (TB). From all the 220 buildings Legionella spp. was researched in two hot water samples collected either at the recirculation point or at on the first floor and on the last floor, while the potable water quality was analyzed in three cold water samples collected at the inlet from the aqueduct network, at the exit from the autoclave, and at the most remove remote? tap. Legionella pneumophila sg1, Legionella pneumophila sg2-16 and not-pneumophila Legionella species were detected in 26% of the hot water networks, mostly in CB and TB. In these buildings we detected correlations between the presence of Legionella and the total chlorine concentration decrease or/and the increase of the temperature. Cold water resulted free from microbiological hazards, with the exception of Serratia liquefaciens and Enterobacter cloacae isolated at the exit from two different autoclaves. We observed an increase in total microbial counts at 22 and 37°C between the samples collected at the most remote taps compared to the ones collected at the inlet from the aqueduct. The study highlights a condition of potential risk for susceptible categories of population and supports the need for measures of risk assessment and control.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with high risk of malnutrition, primarily in elderly people; assessing nutritional risk using appropriate screening tools is critical. This systematic review identified applicable tools and assessed their measurement properties. Literature was searched in the MEDLINE, Embase, and LILACS databases. Four studies conducted in China met the eligibility criteria. Sample sizes ranged from six to 182, and participants’ ages from 65 to 87 years. Seven nutritional screening and assessment tools were used: the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), MNA-short form (MNA-sf), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric NRI (GNRI), and modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC) score. Nutritional risk was identified in 27.5% to 100% of participants. The NRS-2002, MNA, MNA-sf, NRI, and MUST demonstrated high sensitivity; the MUST had better specificity. The MNA and MUST demonstrated better criterion validity. The MNA-sf demonstrated better predictive validity for poor appetite and weight loss; the NRS-2002 demonstrated better predictive validity for prolonged hospitalization. mNUTRIC score demonstrated good predictive validity for hospital mortality. Most instruments demonstrate high sensitivity for identifying nutritional risk, but none are acknowledged as the best for nutritional screening in elderly COVID-19 patients.

All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020. For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis. Maximum number of day’s data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.

Background: Appendicular skeletal muscle (or lean) mass (ALM) estimated using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is considered to be a preferred method for sarcopenia studies. However, DXA is expensive, has limited portability, and requires radiation exposure. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is inexpensive, easy to use, and portable; thus BIA might be useful in sarcopenia investigations. However, a large variety of models have been commercially supplied by different companies, and for most consumer products, the equations estimating ALM are not disclosed. It is therefore difficult to use these equations for research purposes. In particular, the BIA equation is often age-dependent, which leads to fundamental difficulty in examining age-related ALM loss. The aims of the current study were as follows: (1) to develop and validate an equation to estimate ALM using multi-frequency BIA (MF-BIA) based on theoretical models, and (2) to establish sarcopenia cutoff values using the equation for the Japanese population. Methods: We measured height (Ht), weight, and ALM obtained using DXA and a standing-posture 8-electrode MF-BIA (5, 50, 250 kHz) in 756 Japanese individuals aged 18 to 86-years-old (222 men and 301 women as developing equation group and 97 men and 136 women as a cross validation group). The traditional impedance index (Ht²/Z₅₀) and impedance ratio of high and low frequency (Z₂₅₀/Z₅) of hand to foot values were calculated. Multiple regression analyses were conducted with ALM as dependent variable in men and women separately. Results: We created the following equations: ALM = (0.6947 × (Ht²/Z₅₀)) + (−55.24 × (Z₂₅₀/Z₅)) + (−10,940 × (1/Z₅₀)) + 51.33 for men, and ALM = (0.6144 × (Ht²/Z₅₀)) + (−36.61 × (Z₂₅₀/Z₅)) + (−9332 × (1/Z₅₀)) + 37.91 for women. Additionally, we conducted measurements in 1624 men and 1368 women aged 18 to 40 years to establish sarcopenia cutoff values in the Japanese population. The mean values minus 2 standard deviations of the skeletal muscle mass index (ALM/Ht²) in these participants were 6.8 and 5.7 kg/m² in men and women, respectively. Conclusion: The current study established and validated a theoretical and age-independent equation using MF-BIA to estimate ALM and provided reasonable sarcopenia cutoff values.

Purpose: Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) affects patients’ quality of life and health. Magnesium (Mg) is an essential mineral and a potent antioxidant. Mg deficiency can worsen oxidative stress caused by sleep deprivation or disorders. The impact of OSA on serum Mg levels and its health consequences remain unclear. Methods: This study systematically reviewed clinical studies investigating the serum Mg levels of OSA patients and the potential relationships with other biomarkers.Results: Six articles were included for qualitative synthesis; five were used in quantitative analysis. Two out of four studies that compared OSA patients to healthy controls found them to have significantly lower serum Mg levels. Our meta-analysis with three studies shows that patients with OSA had significantly lower serum Mg with an effect size of -1.22 (95% CI: -2.24, -0.21). However, the mean serum Mg level of OSA patients (n=251) pooled from five studies (1.90 mg/dL, 95% CI: 1.77, 2.04) does not differ significantly from the normal range. OSA severity appears to affect serum Mg negatively. Serum Mg levels generally improve after treatment, coincide with the improvement of OSA severity. Low serum Mg levels correlate with worsening of cardiovascular risk biomarkers of C-reactive protein, ischaemia-modified albumin, and carotid intima-media thickness. The serum Mg levels also potentially correlate with biomarkers for lipid profile, glucose metabolism, calcium and heavy metals. Conclusions: Sleep deprivation appears to deplete Mg levels of OSA patients, making them at risk of Mg deficiency, which potentially increases systemic inflammation and the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

This paper relies on accounting-based measures of country risk to investigate U.S. global banks' exposure to foreign country risk over the 2017 fiscal year as measured by the sum of cross-border risk, foreign office risk, and derivative risk claims. We achieve this using panel linear modeling methods with country level heterogeneity and time fixed effects, along with a constructed panel data of 284 observations on 71 countries distributed across 6 world regional blocks, and observed over 4 consecutive quarters starting from 4th quarter 2016 and ending with 3rd quarter 2017. The results show that on average, over the four quarters, a 1% increase in foreign banking sector's claims significantly increases U.S. global banks cross border risk exposure by 0.34%, while reducing derivative risk exposure by 0.22%, but have no significant impact on foreign office risk exposure. Similar results are observed with public sector claims which significantly increase banks' exposure to cross border risk by 0.21%, while reducing derivative risk exposure by 0.19%. Conversely however, non-bank financial sector claims are found to have no significant affect on cross-border risk exposure, but significantly reduce foreign office risk exposure by 0.09%, while increasing derivative risk exposure by 0.06%. These results indicate the presence of sectoral heterogeneities in U.S. banks' exposure to foreign counterparties' risk, and also that overall, over the course of 2017 the level of U.S. global banks' cross-border risk exposure increased, while their level of derivative risk exposure decreased, and the level of foreign office risk exposure remained relatively unchanged.

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Background: Handover is a critical process for ensuring quality and safety in healthcare. Considerable research suggests that poor handover results in significant morbidity, mortality, dissatisfaction, and excess financial costs. Despite this, little formal attention, education, and evaluation has been given to handover. There is also paucity of data on the opinions of practitioners on the safety of handover.Objectives: The aim of this study was to measure the perceived risk, degree of patient harm and the systems used to support handover, and to understand how this varied by care setting, type of clinical practice, location, or level of experience. Methods: An open, anonymous and confidential online questionnaire covering: (a) respondent characteristics; (b) peer-to-peer handover; (c) internal referrals; (d) discharges and transfers between organisations; and (e) leading and improving handover was conducted with healthcare practitioners and managers from various settings. Results: We gathered a total of 432 completed responses from 26 countries. The average reported performance of handover was rated as 3.9 out of 5.For each type of handover, 12 - 14% reported errors occurring more than weekly. Of those that knew the outcome of such errors, between 29% and 34% reported that they had witnessed moderate or severe harm. 12% and 17% of respondents believed that handover was high or very high risk (See table 4). These respondents were more likely to have witnessed moderate or severe harm, or to be more senior.A wide combination of handover systems was utilised by respondents. 28% - 32% relied exclusively on EPRs (with or without face-to-face contact). 21% used Office documents such as Word and Excel for peer-to-peer handover, and over 30% used hand-written or manual systems. Conclusions: This study suggests the need to do more — and go further — to improve communication and reduce risk during all types of handovers. Clinical leaders should find ways to train and support handover with effective systems, with less experienced staff being the primary focus. More research is needed to demonstrate the interventions that improve the safety of handover.

Background/Purpose: Over the last two decades, malaria has remained a major worldwide public health concern, especially in the developing countries leading to high morbidity and mortality among children. Nigeria is the world most burdened malaria endemic nation, contributing more than a quarter of global malaria cases. This study determined the prevalence of malaria among children 6-59 months in Nigeria, and the effects of individual and contextual factors. Methods: The study utilized data from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) involving a weighted sample size of 10,185 children who were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Given the hierarchical structure of the data set, such that children at level-1 are nested in community at level-2, and nested in states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) at level-3, multilevel mixed effect logistic regression models were used for the analysis. Results: The proportion of children 6-59 months of age in Nigeria that had malaria fever positive as assessed by RDTs was 35.5% (3,418/10185), (CI: 33.9-37.1). Kebbi State had the highest proportion of children 6-59 months who were malaria positive, 77.6%, (CI: 70.2-83.5), followed by Katsina State, 55.5%, (CI: 47.7-63.1). The Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja had the proportion of 29.6%, (CI: 21.6-39.0), malaria positive children of 6-59 months of age. Children between the age of 48 and 59 months were 2.68 times more likely to have malaria fever than children 6-11 months of age (AOR=2.68, 95% CI: 2.03-3.54). Also, children from the rural area (AOR= 2.12, 95% CI: 1.75-2.57), were more likely to suffer from malaria infection compare with children from urban area. Conclusion: The study identified some individual and contextual predictors of malaria among children in Nigeria. These factors are areas that need to be considered for policy designs and implementations toward control and total elimination of malaria-related morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria.

Background: Dental professions are at high risk of contracting novel corona virus (COVID-19) infections during the dental procedure due to the droplets and aerosols generated during various dental procedures on infected patients. To prevent and avoid the cross-infection of the infection to dental professionals or the patients attending the dental clinic, good knowledge of the infection and its prevention mechanisms is mandatory among the professionals. Until to date, there is no pooled estimate on the knowledge,attitude and practice (KAP) of dental professionals to COVID-19 in the globe. Hence, this study aimed to determine the pooled estimate of KAP of dental professionals in this pandemic disease. Methods: Article search was done electronically using Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE, SciELO and Google Scholar from June 1, 2020 to August 20, 2020. All studies that assessed the KAP of dental professionals to COVID-19 were searched and included in this review after passing the inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis of their knowledge (sign and symptom, mode of transmission and prevention mechanisms), attitude (their concern, intention to treat suspected patients) and practice (face mask usage, hand washing and alcohol based hand rub usage, handshaking practice, deferred procedures and checkup of patients temperature) was computed using RevMan 5.3 and random effect model was used. The presence of publication bias was assessed using the funnel plot. Results: Twelve articles with a total of 5,362 study participants were included in this study. The pooled estimate revealed that 59.91% of the dental professionals had good knowledge of the signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Two-third of dental professionals know the prevention mechanisms of the infection, and 70.13% had enough knowledge of the transmission modalities of the infection. The professional attitude revealed that only 36.43% of the participants had intention to treat a patient with cough or suspected COVID-19 (36.43%, 95%CI: 8.57, 64.29). Moreover, 47.85% of the dentists were concerned about their life, and the fate of their profession due to this pandemic disease (47.85%, 95%CI: 26.74, 68.97). The pooled analysis showed only 50.86% (95%CI: 18.64, 83.09) of the study participants worn face mask and 52.63% (95%CI: 10.54, 94.71) had avoided handshaking practice during this pandemic period. Non-emergency dental procedures were canceled by 83.98%. Conclusion: The dental professional KAP is not optimal. Thus, dental professionals should be aware of the recently updated knowledge about COVID-19 and practice according to the standards of treatment guidelines, and the recommended infection control measures in dental settings. Moreover, as saliva and droplets are the major sources of infection, dentists should follow essential protocols to regulate droplet and aerosol contamination in the dental practice

Persistent cervical infection with high-risk Human papillomaviruses (hrHPVs) is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the development of cervical cancer. Therefore, there are other co-factors facilitating the hrHPV carcinogenic process, one of which is smoking. In order to assess the effect of smoking on high-risk (hr) HPV DNA positivity and on the expression of HPV E7 oncoprotein, as a surrogate of persistent hrHPV infection, we used data from women recruited for the PIPAVIR project, which examined the role of E7 protein detection in cervical cancer screening. Women were tested for hrHPV DNA, using Multiplex Genotyping and E7 protein, using a novel sandwich ELISA method, and gave information on their smoking habits. Among 1473 women, hrHPV prevalence was 19.1%. The odds ratio (OR) for hrHPV positivity of smokers compared to non-smokers was 1.785 (95%CI: 1.365-2.332, p<0.001). The ORs for E7 positivity, concerning hrHPV positive women, ranged from 0.720 to 1.360 depending on the E7 detection assay used, but this was not statistically significant. Smoking increases the probability of hrHPV infection, and smoking intensity is positively associated to this increase. Smoking is not related to an increased probability of E7 protein positivity for hrHPV positive women.

This paper models and estimates the volatility of nonfinancial, innovative and hi-tech focused stock index, the Nasdaq-100, using univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We employ GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH using daily data over the period January 4, 2000 through March 19, 2019. We find that the volatility shocks on the index returns are quite persistent. Furthermore, our findings show that the index has leverage effect, and the impact of shocks is asymmetric, whereby the impacts of negative shocks on volatility are higher than those of positive shocks of the same magnitude.

COVID-19 is an infectious disease spreading through human touch. This study explored the risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19 infection among Bangladeshi adult participants. Two self-administered online surveys were administered at two different time points from 26-31 March 2020 (Early lockdown) and 11-16 May 2020 (Late lockdown) through social media on 1005 respondents (322 and 683 participants, respectively) during COVID-19 lockdown period in Bangladesh. Univariate and multiple linear regression models were used to examine factors associated with risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19. The mean knowledge (8.4 vs. 8.1, P=0.022) and risk perception (11.2 vs. 10.6, P < 0.001) scores differ significantly between early and late lockdown. Compared to the early lockdown period, the scores for perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 decreased significantly while public knowledge about COVID-19 was lower but not statistically significant. Female participants who practiced high quarantine particularly those who did so at the public health order during the lockdown reported increased knowledge towards the spread of COVID-19 and perceived high risk of contracting COVID-19. Education intervention using awareness to increase public knowledge and perception towards COVID-19 in Bangladesh should target male participants who practiced low quarantine and are less worried about the spread of such novel coronavirus even as the physical distancing persists.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.

Bonfire night is a worldwide phenomenon given to numerous annual celebrations characterised by bonfires and fireworks. Since Thailand has no national ambient air quality standards for metal particulates, it is important to investigate the impacts of particulate injections on elevations of air pollutants and ecological health impacts resulting from firework displays. In this investigation, Pb and Ba were considered potential firework tracers because their concentrations were significantly higher during the episode and lower than/comparable with minimum detection limits during other periods, indicating that their elevated concentrations were principally due to pyrotechnic displays. Pb/Ca, Pb/Al, Pb/Mg, and Pb/Cu can be used to pin-point emissions from firework displays. Air mass backward trajectories (72 h) from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model indicated that areas east and north-east of the study site were the main sources for the air transportation. Although the combined risk associated with levels of Pb, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, V, and Mn was far below the standards mentioned in international guidelines, the lifetime cancer risks associated with As and Cr levels exceeded US-EPA guidelines, and may expose inhabitants of surrounding areas of Bangkok to elevated cancer risk.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a critical factor for enhancing the soil erosion risk and land degradation process in the Wabi Shebelle Basin. Up-to-date spatial and statistical data on basin-wide erosion rates can provide an important basis for planning and conservation of soil and water ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to examine the magnitude of LULCC and consequent changes in the spatial extent of soil erosion risk, and identify priority areas for Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) in the Erer Sub-Basin, Wabi Shebelle Basin, Ethiopia. The soil loss rates were estimated using an empirical prediction model of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) outlined in the ArcGIS environment. The estimated total annual actual soil loss at the sub-basin level was 1.01 million tons in 2000 and 1.52 million tons in 2018 with a mean erosion rate of 75.85 t ha^–1 y^–1 and 107.07 t ha^–1 y^–1, respectively. The most extensive soil loss rates were estimated in croplands and bare land cover, with a mean soil loss rate of 37.60 t ha^–1 y^–1 and 15.78 t ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, respectively. The soil erosion risk has increased by 18.28% of the total area, and decreased by 15.93%, showing that the overall soil erosion situation is worsening in the study area. We determined SWC priority areas using the Multi-Criteria Decision Rule (MCDR) approach, indicates that the top three levels identified for intense SWC account for about 2.50%, 2.38%, and 2.14%, respectively. These priority levels are typically situated along the steep slopes in Babile, Fedis, Fik, Gursum, Gola Oda, Haramaya, Jarso, and Kombolcha districts that need emergency SWC measures.

Purpose: Expanded carrier screening (ECS) informs couples of their risk of having offspring affected by certain genetic conditions. Limited data exists assessing the actions and reproductive outcomes of at-risk couples (ARCs). We describe the impact of ECS on planned and actual pregnancy management in the largest sample of ARCs studied to date. Methods: Couples who elected ECS and were found to be at high risk of having a pregnancy affected by at least one of 176 genetic conditions were invited to complete a survey about their actions and pregnancy management. Results: Three hundred ninety-one ARCs completed the survey. Among those screened before becoming pregnant, 77% planned or pursued actions to avoid having affected offspring. Among those screened during pregnancy, 37% elected prenatal diagnostic testing (PNDx) for that pregnancy. In subsequent pregnancies that occurred in both the preconception and prenatal screening groups, PNDx was pursued in 29%. The decision to decline PNDx was most frequently based on the fear of procedure-related miscarriage, as well as the belief that termination would not be pursued in the event of a positive diagnosis. Conclusions: ECS results impacted couples’ reproductive decision-making and led to altered pregnancy management that effectively eliminates the risk of having affected offspring.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

Recent wastewater testing suggests the poliovirus is reemerging, raising questions about the efficacy of the current inactivated polio vaccine and mass vaccination to eradicate poliomyelitis. The present study reassessed reported outcomes from the placebo-control study of the 1954 Salk inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine field trial, which studied a population of 1,829,916 U.S. school children from the first three grades. The placebo-control study of the trial reported that the polio vaccine was 80% to 90% effective in reducing cases of laboratory confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis, 60% to 70% effective against type 1 of the virus, and greater than 90% effective against types 2 and 3 of the poliovirus. However, these outcomes are reported as relative risk reductions, and the absolute risk reductions of the 1954 polio vaccine field trial were never reported to the public. The present paper’s analysis reveals to the public for the first time that the inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine's absolute risk reduction of laboratory confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis in the placebo-control study is 0.01% to 0.02%, an extraordinarily low clinical effect that impugns the Salk polio vaccine’s reported effectiveness. Furthermore, absolute risk reductions for the three poliovirus types are 0.01%, 0.00%, and 0.01%, respectively. Outcome reporting bias in the 1954 inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine field trial casts doubt on eradication of the poliovirus through mass vaccination.

In this paper we analyze the relationship between bankruptcy risk and the corporate life cycle in Pakistan from 2005 to 2014. For this purpose, we run a Hierarchical Linear Mixed Model (HLM) for a sample of 301 non-financial listed firms in 12 different sectors. The empirical outcomes reveal that firms during introduction, growth and, decline stages (mature stage) of life-cycle experience higher (lower) bankruptcy risk. Moreover, in juxtaposition with growth stage, bankruptcy risk is higher at the introduction stage of life-cycle. These findings suggest that financial managers should be cautious about the financial fragility of the firm at each stage of corporate life-cycle. The results also entail that Pakistani firms do not follow a sequential pattern in their life-cycle rather they have the tendency to revert to a previous stage or jump to the next stage of life-cycle. This is the first study that empirically examines the association between firm life-cycle stage and corresponding bankruptcy risk and asserts that managers must incorporate the life-cycle effects into their financial planning and decision making for sustainable working of an enterprise.

Yogyakarta City is one of the big city which is located in Java Island, Indonesia. Yogyakarta City, including study area (Pleret Sub District), are very prone to earthquake hazards, because close to several active earthquake sources. For example, Sunda Megathrust which often generates a big earthquake which can affect the study area. The Sunda Megathrust extends from north to south and west to east along the Sumatra and Java Islands. Furthermore, an active normal fault called as Opak Fault pass through right in the middle of Study area and divides the study area into east and west zone. Recently, after the devastating earthquake in 2006, the population of the study area increases significantly. As a result, the housing demand is also increasing. However, due to the absence of earthquake building code in the study area, locals tend to build improper new houses. Furthermore, in some part of the mountainous area in the study area, there are some building found in unstable slopes area. Due to this condition, the multi-hazard and risk study needs to be done in Pleret. The increasing of population and improper houses in Pleret Sub-District can lead to amplify the impact. Thus, the main objective of this study is to assess the multi-hazards and risk of earthquake and other related secondary hazards such as ground amplification, liquefaction, and coseismic landslide. The method mainly utilised the geographic information system, remote sensing and was fit up by the outcrop study. The results show that the middle part of the study area has a complex geological structure. It was indicated by a lot of unchartered faults was found in the outcrops. Furthermore, the relatively prone areas to earthquake can be determined. In term of the coseismic landslide, the prone area to the coseismic landslide is located in the east part of the study area in the middle slope of Baturagung Escarpment. The highly potential area of liquefaction is dominated in the central part of the study area. In term of building collapsed probability, the result shows that the safest house based on statistical analysis is the residential house with the building attribute of wood structure, roof cast material, distance more than 15 km from the earthquake source, and located above the Nglanggran Formation. Finally, the multi-hazard and risk analysis show that the middle part of the study area is more vulnerable than the other part of Pleret Sub-District.

Framed in a context with an emerging economy and with a high percentage of school failure, this study aimed to identify the factors that turn students with socioeconomic disadvantages into resilient students. Two questions guided the research: Can resilience be supported in students in adverse socioeconomic situations? What factors influence building resilient students? A cross-sectional study was carried out from 2011 to 2015 in Chile, using a multilevel logistic regression model with three levels, considering the hierarchical data structure. The behavior of 63100 to 76400 sampled students was analyzed. Results show five relevant factors in building resilience: self-efficacy in language, minor aggressions and violence perceived by students, norms and values of the establishment, interest in study, and self-efficacy. Some risk factors identified were an atmosphere of less respect and trust, engagement in physical education activities and good performance in carrying them out. These results could orient educational leaders interested in supporting the educational community in order to improve the academic success of disadvantaged students.

Data relating to the rate at which pesticide active substances dissipate on or within various plant matrices are important for a range of different risk assessments; however, despite the importance of this data, dissipation rates are not included in the most common online data resources. Databases have been collated in the past, but these tend not to be maintained or regularly updated. The purpose of the exercise described herein was to collate a new database in a format compatible with the main online pesticide database resource (the Pesticide Properties Database, PPDB), to validate this database in line with the Pesticide Properties Database protocols and thus ensure that the data is maintained and updated in future. Data was collated using a systematic review approach using several scientific databases. Collated literature was subjected to a quality assessment, and then data was extracted into an MS Excel spreadsheet. The outcome of the study is a database based on data collated from 1390 published articles covering over 400 pesticides and over 200 crops across a wide variety of different matrices (leaves, fruits, seeds etc.) for pesticide residues on the crop surface, as well as residues absorbed within the plant material. This data is now fully incorporated into the PPDB.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.

The basic principles of geological risk calculation through Probability of Success (PoS) are mostly applied for numerical estimation of additional hydrocarbon existence in proven reservoirs or potential hydrocarbon discoveries in selected geological regional subsurface volume. It can be tailored and validated for a comprehensive input dataset collected in the selected petroleum province, adapted by dividing up geological events into several probability categories and classes. The most applied categories are (existence of) reservoir rocks, traps and isolators, source rocks, migration pathways and preservation conditions for hydrocarbons The methodology results in unique probability values as multiplication of independent statistical events, which can also be applied in the assessment of a potential hydrocarbon discovery of desired minimal volume and its value in any virtual currency like risk-neutral dollars. Such methodology has been extensively developed in the last decades in the Croatian subsurface, mostly in the Croatian part of the Pannonian Basin System (CPBS). Through the adaptation of geological categories, it was also applied in hybrid, i.e., stochastical, models developed in the CPBS (Drava Depression). Stochastically estimation of porosity was already applied. As the robustness of this methodology is very high, it was also modified to estimate the influence of water-flooding in increasing oil recovery in some proven Neogene sandstone reservoirs in the CPBS (Sava Depression). This new modification is being presented to be applied to geological risk calculation, intending to assess the safety of geological environment in deep wells, where depleted radioactive fuel would be disposed, a subject of great importance. The case study encompassed the magmatic and metamorphic rocks in the pre-Neogene basement of the CPBS. For disposal purpose, these are regionally lithologies considered as to be the safest ones considering petrophysical values, water saturation, recent weathering and tectonic activity.

Over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infections among dogs are more common than previously thought. In this study, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was investigated in two dog population. The first group was comprised of 1069 dogs admitted to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital for any given reason. The second group included dogs that shared households with confirmed COVID-19 cases in humans. This study group numbered 78 dogs. In COVID-19 infected households, 43.9% tested ELISA positive, and neutralisation antibodies were detected in 25.64% of dogs. Those data are comparable with the secondary attack rate in the human population. With 14.69% of dogs in the general population testing ELISA positive, there was a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections within the dog population amid the second wave of the pandemic. Noticeably seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the dog and the human population did not differ at the end of the study period. Male sex, breed and age were identified as significant risk factors. This study gives strong evidence that while acute dog infections are mostly asymptomatic, they can pose a significant risk to dog health. Seropositive dogs had a 1.97 times greater risk for developing central nervous symptoms.

Introduction: Ambient air pollution is major global health problem and commercial drivers are particularly exposed to it. No systematic assessment of the health risks associated with occupational exposure to ambient air pollution in this population has been carried out. Methods: We conducted a systematic review using a protocol-driven strategy. Papers published from inception to 20th April 2018 in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, African journals online, Cochrane library, ISRCTN and WHO ICTRP databases were screened for inclusion by two independent reviewers. Original articles with at least an available abstract in English or French were included. Results: The initial search retrieved 1454 published articles of which 20 articles were included. 3 Studies reported a significant difference in white blood cells (106/L) among commercial motorcyclists compared to rural inhabitants (5.041±1.209 vs 5.900±1.213,p=0.001), an increased risk of lung cancer (RR=1.6, 95%CI 1.5-1.8) in bus drivers and an increased standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in bus drivers from Hodgkin’s lymphoma (SMR 2.17, 95%CI 1.19-3.87) compared to white collar workers. Other studies also found that drivers had more oxidative DNA damage and chromosome breaks. 4 papers failed to demonstrate that the drivers were more exposed to air pollution than the controls. 3 other studies also reported no significant difference in lung function parameters and respiratory symptoms. The genetic polymorphisms of detoxifying enzymes were not also homogeneously distributed compared to the controls. Conclusion: There is some evidence that occupational exposure to ambient air pollution among commercial drivers is associated with adverse health outcomes but the existing literature is limited with few studies of small sample size, methodological weaknesses and contradictory findings. Further research is recommended.

A copula is a useful tool for constructing bivariate and/or multivariate distributions. In this article, we consider a new modified class of (Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern) FGM bivariate copula for constructing several dierent bivariate Kumaraswamy type copulas and discuss their structural properties, including dependence structures. It is established that construction of bivariate distributions by this method allows for greater flexibility in the values of Spearman's correlation coefficient rho,  and Kendall's tau . For illustrative purposes, one representative data set is utilized to exhibit the applicability of these proposed bivariate copula models.

The management of existing water distribution system (WDS) is challenged by ageing of infrastructure, population growth, increasing of urbanization, climate change impacts and environmental pollution. Therefore, there is a need for integrated solutions that support decision makers to plan today, while taking into account the effect of these factors in the mid and long term. The paper is part of a more comprehensive project, where advanced hydraulic analysis for WDS is coupled with a dynamic resources input-output analysis model. The proposed modeling solution can be used to optimize the performance of a water supply system while considering also the energy consumption and consequently the environmental impacts. Therefore, as a support tool in the management of a water supply system also in the intervention planning. Here a possible application is presented for rehabilitation/replacement planning while maximizing the network mechanical reliability and minimizing risk of unsupplied demand and pressure deficit, under given economic constraints.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.

A recent survey that determined heavy metal concentrations in an abandoned Hg mine in Palawan, Philippines, found the occurrence of Hg with As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Tl, V, and Zn. While the Hg originated from the mine waste calcines as supported by previous studies, the critical knowledge about the origin of the other heavy metals remains to be unknown. Our study investigated the sources of heavy metal pollution surrounding the abandoned Hg mine; and assessed the soil and sediment quality, ecological risks, and health risks associated with these toxic metals. Multivariate analyses, such as hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), principal component analysis (PCA), and Pearson correlation analysis, were used to identify the heavy metal sources from the results of a previous paper. Our results showed that Fe, Ni, Cr, Co, and Mn are associated with the ultramafic geology of the study, whereas As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Pb, Sb, Tl, V, and Zn are likely due to historical mining and processing of cinnabar from 1953-1976. The mine waste calcines were used as construction material for the wharf and as land filler for the adjacent communities. The modified contamination factor (mCdeg) showed that the coast of Honda Bay is highly contaminated, while the inland areas, including the rivers, are very- to ultra-highly contaminated. There is a considerable ecological risk associated with the heavy metals, wherein Ni, Hg, Cr, and Mn contribute an average of 46.3 %, 26.3 %, 11.2 %, and 9.3 % to the potential ecological risk index (RI), respectively. The overall mean hazard index (HI) for both adults (1.4) and children (12.1) exceeded 1, implying the probability of non-carcinogenic adverse effects. The mean total cancer risk over a lifetime (LCR) for both adults (1.19×10-3) and children (2.89×10-3) exceeded the tolerable threshold of 10-4, suggesting a potentially high risk for developing cancer mainly by Ni, Co, and Cr exposure.

The current discussion about a “risk culture” in financial services was triggered by the recent series of crisis (from the US subprime mortgage crisis to the lock-in trap of central banks in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis). The last decade saw a long list of hybris, misconduct and criminal activities by human beings on a single or even a collective basis in banks, in the industry or in the whole economy. As a counter-reaction, financial authorities called for a guidance by a “new” risk culture in financial institutions based on a set of abstract, formal and normative governance processes. In the humanities, culture is a paraphrase for the behaviour in collectives and dynamics of organization found in human societies. Therefore, a “risk culture” should be a link between those normative guidelines and the positive “real-world” decision-making in financial services. This paper will focus on “risk culture” from the perspective of human beings interacting in dynamical and intertemporal commercial relations. In this context, “risk” is perceived by economic agents ex-ante as the consequence of the time-lag between the present and the uncertain future development (compared to a probability distribution calculated by observers ex-post). For all those individual decisions – to be made under uncertainty – future “risk” includes the so-called “normal accidents”, i.e. failures that will happen at some uncertain point in time but inevitable, and it is only the questions, when failure will happen and how to maintain function in the first line of defence. Finally, the sum of all decisions with individual responsibility for things to come is the positive economical context of a “risk culture” in the sense of the (rational) behaviour of an honourable merchant in long-term and repeated commercial relations in a merchant community, as this is a heritage of European business culture.

The purpose of the present study was to determine the relationship between healthy lifestyle behaviors, physical fitness and coronary risk factors in university students. 320 male and female (n_m:171; n_f:149) students from a university participated in this study voluntarily. For the determination of body composition and Body Mass Indexes (BMI), subjects’ height, body weight, and skinfold thickness were taken and body fat percentage (%Fat) was determined. Healthy lifestyle behaviors were determined using the healthy lifestyle behaviors questionnaire. Indicators of physical fitness included flexibility (sit-up) (F), muscle strength and endurance (isometric knee (KS), back strength (BS) and a total of shuttle (TS), sprint performance, BMI, and body fat percentage (%fat). Coronary heart disease risk factors included mean arterial blood pressure (systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP)), fasting blood levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), hematocrit (HT), and hemoglobin (HM). Results indicated subjects have normal body mass index, body fat percentage, SBP, DBP, TG, TCF, BS, KS. The results of the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Analysis, indicated that SBP, DBP, TG, TCF, BS, KS for male and female was significantly correlated with flexibility (sit-up) (F), muscle strength and endurance (isometric knee (KS), back strength (BS) and total of shuttle (TS)), sprint performance. (p<0.01; p<0.05), In conclusion, the findings of the present study indicated that physical fitness and healthy lifestyle behaviors play a determinant role in coronary heart disease risk factors for male and female students from a university.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.

The paper presents the results of the theoretical and practical research on developing the infrastructure for assessment of overall risk (explosion / occupational / terrorist attack) associated with unwanted events such as major accidents that can occur at explosive storehouses for civilian use. The scientific research outlined in this article was carried out within the Nucleu Project PN 16 43 02 15 - “Research on increasing safety levels at technical facilities for storage of explosives for civil use”.

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the predictive model of citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Republic of Serbia legal system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the legal system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, marital, education, income, and age. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variables citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system of Serbia. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of the death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing the death penalty in the legal system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings.

Diversification is an important strategy for managing risk in agricultural systems. Risk analysis can help to support farmers’ diversification strategies, but existing analytical methods are complicated and little used. The minimum regret model helps to fill this gap. It provides a simple, transparent calculation procedure that can be executed with existing spreadsheet software. Regret is an important heuristic in the behavioural sciences and regret-based models are used in finance. The article presents the model with a numerical example. It also presents a framework to compare minimum regret portfolios with two limit cases (maximum utility and minimax regret). A case study illustrates the use of the model and the comparative framework.

Disposable absorbent hygiene products have evolved for superior performance, enhancing the convenience of daily lives. Yet the use of disposable hygiene pads has brought safety concerns on chemical exposure, and significant efforts have been made to assess the potential risks associated with use of hygiene pads. This article intends to overview the safety assessment framework of diapers and feminine pads, which includes hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and postmarket risk management. Risk assessment of various constituents are reviewed for quantification methods and conservative estimation of exposure parameters. By reviewing the up-to-date considerations in risk assessment, we aim to provide insightful discussion on safety evaluation of current versions of disposable absorbent products. More clinical testing and postmarket surveillance are needed for continuous monitoring of potential health impacts of advanced products and constituents.

In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.

Decision-making is a complex process of selecting an option from the given choices by analyzing the background information like risk, loss, and gain within the alternative options presented. It has been observed in earlier studies that people are prompt to make less rational decisions when choices are given in a language less known to them. Therefore, to understand the effect of languages on decision-making, we have questioned native Hindi speakers in French and English. French being the foreign language, and English as their second language. Thus, this effect of a non-native language brings to light the important role that the native language plays routinely in judgment and decision-making. In this paper, we developed a Neuropsychological assessment to decipher the effects on decision-making between choices when given in foreign language and second language in comparison with the native language of an individual, which is termed as foreign language effect(Fle). We have explored various possible situations to understand the foreign language effect(Fle) in decision-making and does this change translates when the decision is to be made in the second language. Our study concludes that the Foreign language is least affected by the intuitive biases, followed by the second language, and the native language is most affected by it.

The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.

This research aimed to figure out the applications of HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene as the prognostic biomarkers for assessing the risks of different cancers among male T2D patients in Bangladesh considering their serological and oncoinformatic parameters. Depending on the concentrations of HbA1c (%) of the T2D patients (n=300), their individual FBS (mmol/L); THABF (mmol/L); creatinine (mg/dl); SC (mg/dl); STGs (mg/dl); HDLC (mg/dl); and LDLC (mg/dl) were estimated. The values of the patients were compared with the control (n=60) group as the serological analysis. Besides, HbA1 gene (encoding hBA1c protein) overexpression and promotor methylation responsible for BLCA, BRCA, CHOL, COAD, LUAD, LUSC, PAAD, and PRAD cancers in the male T2D patients were profiled as the oncoinformatic parameters based on the sample types; caner stages; racial footprints; gender; age; nodal metastasis; p53 methylations; pancreatitis; diabetes status; smoking behaviors; and overall/disease-free survivability. Finally, the ‘HbA1 gene strings’ responsible for genetic coexpression; endophytic vesicle regulation; antioxidant regulation; oxygen species metabolic regulation; and gene-mediated response to the reactive oxygen molecules were studied comprehensively. A strong correlation between BMI and FBS was observed in both the patients and the control (P<0.0001). Similarly, the values of FBS, THABF, and creatinine resulted in equal significance (P<0.0001) as compared to the HbA1c concentrations of all the T2D and control individuals. The SC, STGs, HDLC, and LDLC concentrations regulated ardently in both the control (P<0.0001), and patients group (P<0.0001), while HbA1c ranged from 3.8-5.8%, and 5.11-15.8% respectively. HbA1 gene is found downregulating with cancer progressed in most of the oncoinformatic parameters. According to the DA, CS, EI, CE, PC, NC, GF, H, and AT profiles; the HbA1 gene interacts with 8 other genes responsible for creating a protein cluster comprising- AHSP, HBA1, HBA2, HBB, HBD, HBE1, HBG2, RPS12, and RPS19 proteins for cancer formation. To recapitulate, HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene can be used as the prognostic serological and molecular biomarkers respectively for determining the risks of cancers among male chronic T2D patients.

In order to summarized the polygenic background of psychiatric diseases, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been developed. Recently, PRS have been use to predict patients with higher comorbidities in psychiatric diseases, like dual diagnosis. PRS are principally derived in analysis of Caucasian and Asian populations, we are not aware of how this PRS could be applied in populations with high admixture. In order to explored this, the present work has the aim to analyzed if previous calculated PRS for psychiatric diseases could predict dual diagnosis in Mexican population, and also, if PRS calculation could be influenced by Mexican Amerindian (MA) global ancestry. We performed PRS calculation, using PRSice, with summary genome-wide association statistics previously published for psychiatric diseases, and also, performed Nagelkerke correlation test in order to established if PRS are correlated with dual diagnosis. We found that dual diagnosis could be predicted by major depressive disorder polygenic risk score. Nevertheless, schizophrenia polygenic risk score is highly correlated with global MA ancestry, independently of the schizophrenia diagnosis. Our results reinforced the notion that PRS calculation could be deviated by the MA global ancestry, nevertheless analysis on larger sample sizes are required in order to clarified this issue.

There is high prevalence of hypertension and is rapidly increasing around the world, despite the intervention programme implemented, this study aimed at estimating the prevalence rate, test of association between hypertension and risk factors and model hypertension rate. Data used was obtained from the health record of Federal Medical Centre, Keffi from January 2016 – January 2019. Ordinal logistic regression model was used; Model Fitting Information, Goodness-of-Fit, Pseudo R-Square and Test of Parallel Lines are fitted to the data sets to test the accuracy and correctness of the model. The results indicated that the overall prevalence of hypertension rate is high at 36.4%, among the adult population, body mass index and gender are statistically significant, and Age is not significant in the study. Individuals that are overweight are more likely to be hypertensive compare to other weights. At age 40 – 49 years which have the highest rate of 26.5% and the odd ratio is 0.75 compared to others. One year increase in age 30 – 39, the cumulative odd of being hypertensive is 0.91 while other independent variables are held constant. The odd ratio of female being hypertensive is 0.85, therefore the females are more likely to be hypertensive with 54.4% compared to the males at 45.6% . There is no presence of multicolinearity among the variables and Logit models were formulated to calculate probabilities of the various possible outcomes.

Groundwater plays a pivotal role as the largest potable water sources in Bangladesh. However, the quality of the groundwater faces challenges due to xenobiotic compounds in it. Excess amount of arsenic (As) has already been found in groundwater in many parts of Bangladesh. Thus, this study was conducted to assess the water quality and associated human health risk in central Bangladesh. A total of 99 groundwater samples from the central part of Bangladesh were analyzed to assess human health risk due to high level of nitrate (NO3-) and other trace elements i.e. arsenic (As), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn). It was found that NO3- concentration (253.17 mg/L) in the groundwater samples exceeds the recommended guideline value by the WHO (50 mg/L). Moreover, this study area also characterized with elevated concentration of As (19.44 µg/L), Fe (811.35 µg/L), and Mn (455.18 µg/L) in the groundwater. Non-carcinogenic human health risk was calculated by justifying HQ (Hazard Quotient) and HI (Hazard Index) and attributed potential conjunctive human health risks due to NO3-, As, Fe and Mn in the study area. Moreover, high carcinogenic risk was found due to As contamination in the groundwater samples in the study area.

The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.

Today project management in every field of life is prerequisite for the success of project by increasing quality reduces cost and schedule. But selecting tools and techniques to achieve our objectives and implement our plan fully is very difficult task because choice creates complexity. So, we discuss AHP to make decision simple. Ranking critical success factor, cloud computing services, risk prioritization, selection of right ETL software and many other systems AHP plays its important role. For the improvement of today’s complex systems it is very important to prioritize and select projects to remove the root cause of the problem. To attain the right selection of construction equipment for carrying out schedule tasks with high efficiency, production and financial capability is the main purpose of procurement of construction equipment process. Certain conflicts can occur due to the construction of UML models in a collaborative way. AHP is used to remove these conflicts and for establishing and evaluating modelers judgments. Nowadays it is very important and critical decision to choose the best option from multiple alternatives for a successful career after passing 12th standard and also it affects our future. “AHP and TOPSIS” methods are used for this purpose. In this paper, an “AHP and Fuzzy AHP” based hierarchical trust model has been used to rate the service providers and their various plans for infrastructure as a service.

Throughout the world, disabilities people have worse health prospects, lower education levels, lower economic participation, and higher poverty rate in comparative terms to people without disabilities. For disabilities people achieve better, more long-lasting prospects, we must empower these people and remove barriers that restrict them from participating in the community have access to quality education, to find decent work and have their voices heard. In statistical terms, a very useful alternative that can provide support and monitoring of public policies in this area is proposing to be used continuously. A risk index called risk index disabled person who is to assess which factors are associated to this risk, as well as the intensity and direction of each of these factors, yielding a final score that can be sorted or classified according to the probability of people acquire a certain disability. In the Brazilian case, we propose the use of techniques such as binary and ordinal logistic regression to select the most significant factors using criteria such as AIC, BIC and DIC. Calculate the risk probability for different disabilities (see, hear, move and intellectual) and number of disabilities to the dataset Sample of respondents for Full Questionnaire at IBGE 2010 Census. In this work, by using stereotype ordinal logistic model with ordinal response, it was possible to improve the fit quality, to be compared with binary response logistic model. By using ordinal response merged the disability risk for different severity degree and amount of deficiencies. Mains conclusions were: i)the model required a smaller number of explanatory variables was intellectual or mental and greater number was disabilities; ii) the most sensitive adjust was using stereotype ordinal logistic; iii) different disabilities aren´t homogenous as the different predictor variables, and finally; iv) higher incidence of risks were noted visual disability, living in the northeast, female, age 80, yellow race, instruction level until incomplete fundamental, works production form their own consumption and high number of children.

Retrogressive breach failures or coastal flow slides occur naturally in the shoreface in fine sands near dynamic tidal channels or rivers. They sometimes retrogress into beaches, shoal margins and river banks where they can threaten infrastructure and cause severe coastal erosion and flood risk. Ever since the first reports were published in the Netherlands over a century ago, attempts have been made to understand the geo-mechanical mechanism of flow slides. In this paper we have established that events, observed during the active phase, are characterized by a slow and steady retrogression into the shoreline, often continuing for many hours. This can be explained by the breaching mechanism, as elaborated in this paper. Recently, further evidence has become available in the form of video footage of active events in Australia and elsewhere, often publicly posted on the internet. All these observations justify the new term ‘retrogressive breach failure’ (RBF event). The mechanism has been confirmed in small-scale flume tests and in a large-scale field experiment. With a better understanding of the geo-mechanical mechanism, current protection methods can be better understood and new defense strategies can be envisaged. In writing this paper, we hope that the coastal science and engineering communities will better recognize and understand these intriguing natural events.

Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.

In South Western Indian ocean (IO), Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL) are a main public health issue. In livestock, ESBL burden was unknown. The aim of this study was estimating the prevalence of ESBL on commercial farms in Reunion, Mayotte and Madagascar and genes involved. Secondly, risk factors of ESBL occurrence in broiler, beef cattle and pig farms were explored. In 2016-2017, commercial farms were sampled using boot swabs and samples stored at 4°C before microbiological analysis for phenotypical ESBL and gene characterization. A semi-directive questionnaire was performed. Prevalences observed in all production types and territories were elevated, except for beef cattle in Reunion which differed significantly. The most common ESBL gene was the CTX-M-1 subtype. Generalized linear models explaining ESBL occurrence varied between livestock production sectors and allowed identifying main protective (e.g., water quality control and detergent use for cleaning) and risk factors (e.g., recent antibiotic use, other farmers visiting the exploitation, pet presence). This study is the first to explore tools for antibiotic resistance management in IO farms. It provides interesting hypothesis to explore about antibiotic use in IO and ESBL transmission between pig, beef cattle and humans in Madagascar.

Flash flood is one of the most significant natural disasters in China, particularly in mountainous area, causing heavy economic damage and casualties of life. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient flash flood management. There are more than 530,000 small watersheds in 2058 counties in China where flash flood should be prevented. In practice, with limited fund and different risk levels, the priorities of each small watershed for flash flood prevention and control are also needed for an efficient flash flood management. This paper, take Licheng county in China as an example, aims to give out these priorities for management. First, sensitive indexes are identified among index system, which includes 9 indexes based on underlying surface characteristics of small watershed in hilly region. Second, the range of each index and the rank division of each index for evaluation are determined. Based on the rank divisions for evaluation, the flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) is calculated by Variable Fuzzy Method (VFM ) using 1000 samplings generated by Latin hypercube sampling method. Third, the key sensitivity factors that affect flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) are assessed by two different global sensitivity analysis methods -- stepwise regression analysis and mutual entropy. Both results indicate that watershed slope (S) is the most sensitive factor; the second is antecedent precipitation index (CN); while other factors are slightly different sensitive in sequence. This study shows that stepwise regression analysis and mutual information analysis are appropriate for the sensitivity analysis of mountain flash flood risk. Finally, based on watershed slope (S), the priorities of flash flood prevention and control of 119 small watersheds in Licheng county are given out.

High fructose and sugar-sweetened soft drink (SSSD) intakes are associated with elevated blood uric acid concentrations and increased risk of gout and cardiovascular disease. Fruits are naturally high in fructose but their effect on cardiometabolic risk is unknown. We examined the effect on serum uric acid and cardiometabolic risk factors of consuming fructose from either fruit or SSSD in overweight adults. 48 healthy, overweight (BMI≥ 28 kg/m²) men (n=21) and women (n=20) were randomised to either a fruit (n = 19) or SSSSD (n = 22) intervention for 4 weeks. The fruit group received 6 items of fresh and dried fruit per day and the SSSD group received 955ml of SSSD per day with treatments matched for energy and fructose content. Serum uric acid concentrations were significantly reduced in men in the fruit group compared to the SSSD group (difference 57.2 μmol/L [95% CI: 16.4, 98.0], p= 0.008) but there was no difference amongst women (1.3 μmol/L [95%CI: -9.5, 6.9], p= 0.295). There differences in weight change or other cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings suggest no need to restrict fruit intake in individuals with elevated serum uric acid concentrations, such as those with gout.

World statistics demonstrate that around 970 million people around the globe suffer from mental health problems (Ritchie & Roser, 2019), a major proportion of which comprised of adolescents and young adults (UNODC, 2018). Also, because of increased mental health issues the problems like substance use, suicide, depression, anxiety, and stress are also increasing (Armstrong, 2019; Bandelow & Michaelis, 2015; Ritchie & Roser, 2018; United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [UNODC], 2019). It is thus a dire need to address the issue. The present coneptual paper proposed the role of transpersonal gratitude, emotional intelligence, and life contentment for reducing mental health risk among the adolescents and young adults.

Cold brew coffee is a new trend in coffee industry. This paper presents pilot studies into several aspect of this beverage. Using an online survey, the current practices of cold brew coffee preparation were investigated identifying a rather large variability with a preference for extraction of medium roasted Arabica coffee using 50-100 g/l at 8°C for about 1 day. Sensory testing using ranking and triangle tests showed that cold brew may be preferred over iced coffee (cooled down hot extracted coffee). Extraction experiments at different conditions combined with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis showed that the usual extraction time may be longer than necessary as most compounds are extracted within only a few hours, while increasing turbulence (e.g. using ultrasonication) and temperature may additional increase the speed of extraction. NMR analysis also revealed a possible chemical differentiation between cold brew and hot brew using multivariate data analysis. Decreased extraction time and reduced storage times could be beneficial for cold brew product quality as microbiological analysis of commercial samples detected samples with spoilage organisms and contamination with Bacillus cereus.

This study aims to evaluate the patient’s dose exposure from Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography (CTPA) examination and to estimates the cancer risk induced from the examinations based on the patient’s size. One hundred patients were recruited, and data information was collected retrospectively. A multi-detector (MDCT) (Philips Brilliance 128, USA) scanner were utilized for the CTPA examination, and dose data were obtained from the system. The effective diameter of each subjects’ image was measured for the Size-specific dose estimates (SSDEs). All subjects divided into Group 1 (19 – 25 cm), Group 2 (25-28 cm) and Group 3 (28-38 cm), where the association between gender were analysed. Effective dose (E), SSDE, organ dose and cancer risk of each group were evaluated and compared statistically using independent t-test and one-way ANOVA. The range of mean CTDI_vol, DLP and E values were (6.44 – 17.42 mGy), (239 – 631 mGy), (5.19 – 13.90 mSv), respectively. In respective with the patient’s effective diameter, the mean SSDE value for Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 were 9.93 ± 3.89 mGy, 13.70 ± 9.04 mGy and 22.29 ± 7.35 mGy. The organ dose and cancer risk attained for breast, lung and liver were 17.05 ± 10.40 mGy (194 per one million procedure), 17.55 ± 10.86 mGy (192 per one million procedure) and 15.04 ± 9.75 mGy (53 per one million procedure), respectively. Lung and breast with more massive patient’s effective diameter received the highest dose exposure which increases the probability of the cancer risk. CTDI_vol was found to be underestimated, and SSDE provides more accurate in describing the radiation dose and cancer risk. Body effective diameter found to be significant on the estimation except for gender. Therefore, it is essential to apply optimised protocols in order to reduce patient’s exposure during CTPA examination.

LoRa and its upper layers definition LoRaWAN is one of the most promising LPWAN technologies for implementing the Internet of Things (IoT). Although being a popular technology, several works in the literature have revealed various weaknesses regarding the security of LoRaWAN v1.0 (the official 1st draft). By using all these recommendations from the academia and industry, the LoRa-Alliance has worked on the v1.0 to develop an enhanced version and provide more secure and trustable architecture. The result of these efforts ended-up with LoRaWAN v1.1, which was released on Oct 11, 2017. This manuscript aims at demystifying the security aspects and provide a comprehensive Security Risk Analysis related to latest version of LoRaWAN. Besides, it provides several remedies to the recognized vulnerabilities. To the best of authors’ knowledge, this work is one of its first kind by providing a detailed security analysis related to latest version of LoRaWAN. According to our analysis, end-device physical capture, rogue gateway and replay attacks are found to be threating for safety operation of the network. Eventually, v1.1 of LoRaWAN is found to be less vulnerable to attacks compared to v1.0, yet possesses several security implications that need to be addressed and fixed for the upcoming releases.

The three heat-induced coffee contaminants acrylamide, furfuryl alcohol (FA) and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) were analyzed in a collective of commercial samples as well as in Coffea arabica seeds roasted under controlled conditions from very light Scandinavian style to very dark Neapolitan style profiles. Regarding acrylamide, average contents in commercial samples were lower than in a previous study in 2002 (196 compared to 303 µg/kg). The roasting experiment confirmed the inverse relationship between roasting degree and acrylamide content, i.e. the lighter the coffee the higher the acrylamide content. However, FA and HMF were inversely related to acrylamide and found in higher contents in darker roasts. Therefore, mitigation measures must consider all contaminants and not be focused isolatedly on acrylamide, specifically since FA and HMF are contained in much higher contents with lower margins of exposure compared to acrylamide.

Background: Twitter is a major tool for communication in emergencies such as natural disasters. This online social network allows the user to produce content, and it is not designed exclusively for news releases, as opposed to other service providers. Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate Twitter uses in natural disasters and pandemics. Methods: The included studies reported the role of Twitter in natural disasters. The studies that report in settings other than the natural disasters (such as man-made disasters) and other social media were excluded. Electronic databases for a comprehensive literature search including MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and EMBASE were used to identify the records that match the mentioned inclusion criteria published till May 2020. The study characteristics were extracted from the qualified studies including year of publication, findings, and geographical location of the study conduct. A narrative synthesis for this literature review was used. Results: The search identified 822 articles of which 780 articles were removed, 256 were not available, 311 papers were not relevant, 16 were duplicated articles, and 197 were non-related to the emergencies. 45 articles met the selection criteria and were included in the review. eleven themes were found in the narrative synthesis including early warning, disseminating information and misinformation, advocacy, personal gains, assessment, various roles of organizations, public mood, geographical analysis, charity, using influencers, and trust. Conclusions: It is recommended that influential individuals be identified in each country and community before disasters occur so that the necessary information can be disseminated in response to disasters. Preventing the spread of misinformation is one of the most important issues in times of disaster, especially pandemics. Disseminating accurate, transparent, and prompt information from relief organizations and governments can help. Also, analyzing Twitter data can be a good source for understanding the mental state of the community, estimating the number of injured people, estimating the points affected by natural disasters, and modeling the prevalence of epidemics. Therefore, various groups such as politicians, the government, non-governmental organizations, aid workers, and the health system can use this information to plan and implement interventions.

Several factors enhance the possibility of vertical HIV transmission in the pediatric population. Unfortunately, the data of the prevalence of HIV and associated risk factors in these populations remain limited in Rwanda. The study aimed to assess HIV prevalence and risk factors for infants born to mothers on ARV treatment at CHUB/Rwanda. MethodsA cross-sectional study was carried out on infants who were born to mothers under ARV treatment at CHUB. The associated risk factors were retrospectively assessed using prevention vertical HIV transmission records, and Dried Blood spots (DBS) were prospectively tested using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Data were analyzed by logistic regression. Ethical clearance (Ref: CMHS/IRB/198/2017) was issued by University of Rwanda to fulfill research ethical consideration.ResultsAmong 185(100%) infants born to HIV-positive mothers under ARV treatment, 5(2.7%) were HIV positive. The most associated risk factors were increased to over 1log copies/ml mother’s viral load (OR 9.3, 95% CI 1.01-85.45, P= 0.04) and mother’s CD4 count lower than 350 cells/µl (OR 6.4, 95% CI 1.03-40.06, P=0.04). The factors found to reduce the rate of vertical transmission of HIV were health facility as a delivery place (P=0.03), exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months (P= 0.006), and attending the antenatal care (P=0.01) while feeding children and vaginal delivery were associated risks but not statistically significant.ConclusionThe current study supports that the more mothers’ viral load and CD4 count decrease, so does the risk of HIV to their infants. A fact which indicates that both prevalence and risk factors remain an alarming issue. Much effort and multi-disciplinary approach are highly recommended.

Assessing the economic supply of biomass in a geospatial context while accounting for risk from natural disasters was studied. Risk levels were estimated from a component of factors which included: population density, road density, federal ownership, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions, and Presidential Disaster Declarations. The Presidential Disaster Declarations included risks due to: coastal storm, drought, fire, flood, freezing, hurricane, mud land slide, severe ices, severe storms, snow, tornado, and tropical storm. Presidential Disaster Declarations included summaries based on a short-term time period from 2000-2011, and on a long-term time period from 1964-2011. Risk categories were developed as a function of the number of disaster declarations, agricultural-to-forest land ratio, average road density, and average population density. A significant contribution of the research was the allocation of spatially explicit data using GIS technology at the 5-digit zip code tabulation area. The average area for 5-digit ZCTAs in the Eastern U.S. study region was approximately 169 kilometers². Long-term risk (1964-2011) from disaster declarations had a greater impact on the economic availability of biomass supply relative to short-term declarations (2000-2011). The greatest risk to biomass supply came from population density relative to the other risk factors studies. Of the 25,044 total ZCTAs, 12,256 ZCTAs were in locations that did not include population density ≥ 150/km², road density ≥ 14 km/km², federal ownership, and US Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecoregions. Of the remaining 12,256 ZCTAs, 26.8% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on short-term declarations (2000-2011) and 29.4% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on long-term declarations (1964-2011). Lower risk locations for procuring biomass supply for both short-term and long-term declarations, across all risk factors, were in southern Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.

This systematic review followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement to synthesizes the existing literature with a goal to review current conceptual frameworks of mental health of forced migrants for further practice research priorities in social work. The search was done between January 2015 to January 2021. As a result, 29 studies met inclusion criteria. Medicalizing mental health issues by relying solely on the effectiveness of medicine was a controversial risk factor that negatively affected the daily life activities of refugees and reduced their willingness for seeking professional mental health services. Empowering vulnerable minorities by giving them back their power and agency to be able to speak for themselves and raise voices of trauma and recovery was the missing protective factor for sustainable mental health practice. The benefits of group-based interventions are highlighted in which communities and individuals address mental health issues as well as isolation through building collective identities and support networks. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) can add more strength to any kind of mental health intervention. Finally, the benefits of applying ecological perspective for the mental health of refugees, and its implications for a sustainable intercultural practice are discussed. Social workers in this model are the representatives of at-risk groups, thus need more agency and creativity in reflecting client’s concrete needs.

Improving the efficiency of the supply process in prefabricated components is challenging and requires accounting for a variety of risks involved in the management of the suppliers. The purpose of this study is to present a method to account for the systematic trade-offs between several supplier alternatives. A novel framework is presented for the whole assessment of supplier alternatives by taking advantage of the information extracted from customized building information modeling (BIM) and a database required for assessment of impacts. A data library related to assessment criteria for supply alternatives is built to facilitate the storage and sharing of information. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to select the optimal supplier that is able to provide the most satisfaction for the determined criteria. The proposed framework was also illustrated by the implementation in a mega project. The study implication is that BIM-enabled supplier selection can indeed lead to more benefits and higher values for all stakeholders.

Objective:The application of information technology (IT( is fundamental in the hospitals to stay competitive.In this regard, recognizing the main risks to the implementation of IT in hospitals can provide vastopportunities to improve its efficiency and help to make strategic decisions. This study aimed tosearch for the main risks of implementation of IT projects in the hospitals of Tehran. Methods: This was a practical and cross-sectional study which was conducted in the 18 hospitals of Tehran,Iran, 2018; in which a sample of 65 members were studied. The required data were collected using a questionnaire to examine seven main risks, including market, project management, human resources, technical, organizational, financial, strategic risks. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. Additionally, the method used to test the risks in this study was structural equation modeling, which was ran using LISREL 9.30. Results: The results showed that among the seven main risks of to the implementation of IT in hospitals, the highest and lowest means were related to the human resource risks and the market risks, respectively. Also, according to the SEM, human resource risks and market risks had the highest and lowest effects, respectively. Conclusion: Announcing the use of IT in the hospitals, holding conferences about new IT developments with employees, suitable training, encouraging them to use IT tools, providing a motivating atmosphere to use IT tools for employees, are a few effective ways of overcoming the human resource risks.

Very little is known about laboratory confirmed blood stream infections (LCBIs) in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in resource-limited settings. The aim of this cohort study was to determine the incidence, risk factors, and causative agents of LCBIs in a level-2 NICU in India. The diagnosis of LCBIs was established using the Centre for Disease Control, USA criteria. A predesigned questionnaire containing risk factors associated with LCBIs was filled-in. A total of 150 neonates (43% preterm) were included in the study. The overall incidence of LCBIs was 31%. The independent risk factors for LCBIs were: preterm neonates (relative risk (RR) 2.23), duration of NICU stay more than 14 days (RR 1.75), chorioamnionitis in the mother (RR 3.18), premature rupture of membrane in mothers (RR 2.32), neonate born through meconium-stained amniotic fluid (RR 2.32), malpresentation (RR 3.05), endotracheal intubation (RR 3.41), umbilical catheterization (RR 4.18), and ventilator-associated pneumonia (RR 3.17). The initiation of minimal enteral nutrition was protective from LCBIs (RR 0.22). The predominant causative organisms were gram-negative pathogens (58%). The results of the present study can be used to design antibiotic interventions to reduce LCBIs in resource-limited settings.

The movement toward prevention trials in people at-risk for Parkinson’s is rapidly becoming a reality. The authors of this article include a genetically at-risk advocate with the LRRK2 G2019S variant and two patients with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD), one of whom has now been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease (PD). These authors participated as speakers, panelists, and moderators in the “Planning for Prevention of Parkinson’s: A Trial Design Forum” hosted by Massachusetts General Hospital in 2021 and 2022. Other authors include a young onset person with Parkinson’s (PwP) and retired family physician, an expert in patient engagement in Parkinson’s, and early career and veteran movement disorders clinician researchers. Several themes emerged from the at-risk participant voice concerning the importance of early intervention, the legitimacy of their input in decision-making, and the desire for transparent communication and feedback throughout the entire research study process. Challenges and opportunities in the current environment include lack of awareness among primary care physicians and general neurologists about PD risk, legal and psychological implications of risk disclosure, limited return of individual research study results, and undefined engagement and integration of individuals at-risk into the broader Parkinson’s community. Incorporating the perspectives of individuals at-risk as well as those living with PD at this early stage of prevention trial development is crucial to success.

A reliability-based criterion to estimate strength amplification factors for buildings with asymmetric yielding located within a seismic region presenting different soil conditions is proposed and applied. The approach involves the calculation of the mean annual rate of exceedance of structural demands of systems with different levels of asymmetric yielding. Two simplified mathematical expressions are developed considering different soil conditions of the valley of Mexico. The mathematical expressions depend on the ductility of the structural systems, their level of asymmetric yielding, their fundamental vibration period and the dominant period of the soil. In addition, the proposed expressions are compared with that recommended by the current Mexico City Building Code (MCBC). Since the expressions are developed with the help of simplified structural systems, the validity of such expressions is corroborated by comparing the expected ductility demand of multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) structural systems with respect to that of their equivalent simplified systems. Both structural representations are associated with a given annual rate of exceedance value of an engineering demand parameter. The expressions proposed in this study will be incorporated in the new version of the MCBC.

The number of individuals meeting criteria for genetic counseling and testing for hereditary cancer syndromes (HCS) is far less than the number that actually receive it. To facilitate identification of patients at risk for HCS, Counsyl developed a digital identification tool (digital ID tool) to match personal and family cancer history to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) BRCA-related Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC), Lynch syndrome, and polyposis testing criteria in one-to-one, automated fashion. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of the digital ID tool to accurately identify histories that do and do not meet NCCN testing criteria. Methods: Third-party recorded three-generation pedigrees were retrospectively reviewed by a certified genetic counselor (CGC) to determine if independent events included in pedigree histories met NCCN guidelines, and were then sorted into groups: high risk events (meets criteria) and low risk events (does not meet criteria). Events were entered into the digital ID tool to determine the extent of its concordance with events sorted by CGC review. Statistical tests of accuracy were calculated at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: 197 pedigrees were reviewed consecutively representing 765 independent events for analysis across groups. 382/382 (100%) high risk events identified by the digital ID tool and 381/383 (99.47%) low risk events identified by the digital ID tool were concordant with CGC sorting. The digital ID tool had a sensitivity of 100% (99.04-100% CI) and specificity of 99.48% (98.13-99.94% CI). The overall accuracy of the digital ID tool was estimated to be 99.74% (99.06-99.97% CI), reflecting the rate at which the digital ID tool reached the same conclusion as that of CGC review of pedigree events for the recommendation of genetic testing for individuals at risk for HCS. Conclusions: The digital ID tool accurately matches NCCN criteria in one-to-one fashion to identify at-risk individuals for HCS and may be useful in clinical practice, specifically for BRCA-related HBOC and Lynch Syndrome.

Eating Disorders (ED) constitute a serious public health issue affecting predominantly women and appearing typically in adolescence or early adulthood. EDs are extremely difficult to treat as these disorders are ego-syntonic and many patients do not seek treatment. It is vital to focus on the development of successful early-intervention programs for individuals presenting at-risk and are on a trajectory towards developing EDs. This study is a randomized controlled trial evalu-ating an innovative digital gamified Acceptance and Commitment early-intervention program (AcceptME) for young females showing signs and symptoms of an ED and at high-risk for an ED. Participants (N=92; Mage=15.30 years, SD=2.15) received either AcceptME (N=62) or a waitlist control (N=30). Analyses indicated that the AcceptME program effectively reduced weight and shape concerns, with large effects when compared to waitlist controls. Most participants scored below the at-risk cut-off (WCS score<52) in the AcceptME at end-of-intervention (57.1%) com-pared to controls (7.1%) with odds of falling into the at-risk group being 14.5 times higher for participants in the control group. At follow-up, 72% of completers reported scores below the at-risk cut-off in the AcceptME group. The intervention also resulted in a decrease in ED symp-tomatology and increased body image flexibility. Overall, results suggest that the AcceptME program holds promise for early-intervention of young women at-risk for developing an ED.

In recent years, rainfall-induced waterlogging has become a common hazard in the highly urbanized coastal city of Chattogram, Bangladesh resulting in high magnitude of property damage and economic loss. Therefore, the primary objective of this research is to prepare a waterlogging inventory map and understand the spatial variation of the risk by means of hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability of waterlogging. In this research, the inventory map and factors influencing waterlogging hazard were determined from a participatory survey and other spatial data including land elevation, population, and structural data were collected from secondary sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process was applied to measure the hazard intensity and the exposure and vulnerability were estimated by overlaying the spatial data onto the hazard intensity map. A total of 58 locations in 22 wards have been identified as waterlogging affected, which covers ~8.42% of the city area. Obtained waterlogging vulnerability index map suggests that ward no. 5, 6, 16, 17, and 33 are greatly vulnerable to waterlogging in terms of their social, infrastructure, critical facilities, economic and environmental vulnerability. We show that ~2.71% of the study area is at very high risk, while the risk score is considerably higher for ward no. 5, 8, 17, 19, and 33.

This research investigates the relationship among human knowledge, behavior, and risk as they relate to urban chicken husbandry in the U.S. Concern over zoonotic diseases has been on the rise, especially with increasing contact. In particular, avian influenza, or bird flu, Salmonella enterica (salmonella), and Escherichia coli (E. coli), can all cross species lines between people and poultry. This study analyzed knowledge and practices in urban chicken husbandry to assess how they relate to risk of disease acquisition, hypothesizing that certain practices associated with a lessened knowledge base may heighten the risk. This study used social surveys to examine the self-reported knowledge base of individuals involved in chicken husbandry as they relate to beliefs and behaviors associated with the care of these animals. These results identify key factors that may heighten the risk of disease transmission, and demonstrate that an increased knowledge base could act to lessen this risk.

This study analyses the short-run hydro generation scheduling for the wind power differences from the contracted schedule. The approach for construction of the joint short-run marginal cost curve for the hydro-wind coordinated generation is proposed and applied on the real example. This joint short-run marginal cost (SRMC) curve is important for its participation in the energy markets and for economic feasibility assessment of such coordination. The approach credibly describes the short-run marginal costs which this coordination bears in “real life”. The approach is based on the duality framework of a convex programming and as a novelty combines the shadow price of risk mitigation capability and the water shadow price. The proposed approach is formulated as a stochastic linear program and tested on the case of the Vinodol hydropower system and the wind farm Vrataruša in Croatia. The result of the case study is a family of 24 joint short-run marginal cost curves.

This study employed a deductive research approach and a survey strategy to assess risk perception and its influencing factors among construction workers in Malawi. Three specific construction hazards and their associated risks were selected. The hazards were ‘working at height (WAH) ‘manual handling of loads (MHL)’ and ‘heavy workload or intense pressure to be more productive (HWP)’. The study engaged multistage sampling of 376 subjects. Univariate analysis, factor analysis and multiple linear regressions were performed in order to determine the main influencing factors among the independent variables. The study established that workers were aware of risks posed by their work. They perceived the risk associated with WAH, MHL and HWP as very high (62.7%, = 8.80 ± 1.95); (48.5%, = 8.10 ± 2.38); (57.9%, = 8.49 ± 2.22) respectively. The study identified six factors as variables that showed significant effect on workers’ perception of risk (p < 0.05). These factors were “dreaded factor”, “avoidability and controllability”, “expert knowledge”, “personal knowledge”, education level and age. It is concluded that contractors in the Malawian construction industry should integrate analysis of behaviors and risk perception of the workers and other players to guide the identification of better health and safety interventions at their worksites.

Electricity distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system is modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the energy not supplied are complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.

In recent years, there is a growing concern about the alarming spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in different environments. Increasingly, many species of bacteria, fungi and viruses are becoming immune to the most commonly used pharmaceuticals. One of the causes of the development of the resistance is the persistence of these drugs, excreted by humans, in municipal and hospital wastewater (WW). Consequently, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are a primary source of antimicrobial resistance genes as novel pollutants. This systematic review sought to examine the relevant literature on pharmaceutical residues (PRs) responsible for AMR in municipal and hospital WW in order to propose a classification of the PRs of greatest concern and provide an updated source for AMR management in WWTPs. Among 546 studies collected from four databases, 18 were included in the present review. The internal and external validity of each study was assessed, and the risk of bias was evaluated on a 20-parameter basis. Results were combined in a narrative synthesis discussing influents and effluents PR concentrations at 88 WWTPs, seasonal variations, differences between hospital and municipal WW, environmental risk assessment values of antimicrobial substances and treatment facilities removal efficiencies. Among the 45 PRs responsible for AMR evaluated in this study, the antibiotics ciprofloxacin, clarithromycin, erythromycin, metronidazole, ofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim constitute a considerable risk in terms of ubiquitous distribution, worrying concentrations, risk quotients values, and resistance to removal treatments. Gaps in knowledge, data and information reported in this review provide a valuable source for managing AMR in WWTPs.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is characterized by motor deficits and a wide variety of non-motor symptoms. The age of onset, rate of disease progression and the precise profile of motor and non-motor symptoms display considerable individual variation. Neuropathologically, the loss of substantia nigra dopaminergic neurons is a key feature of PD. The vast majority of PD patients exhibit alpha-synuclein aggregates in several brain regions, but there is also great variability in the neuropathology between individuals. While the dopamine replacement therapies can reduce motor symptoms, current therapies do not modify the disease progression. Numerous clinical trials using a wide variety of approaches have failed to achieve disease modification. It has been suggested that the heterogeneity of PD is a major contributing factor to the failure of disease modification trials, and that it is unlikely that a single treatment will be effective in all patients. Precision medicine, using drugs designed to target the pathophysiology in a manner that is specific to each individual with PD, has been suggested as a way forward. PD patients can be stratified according to whether they carry one of the risk variants associated with elevated PD risk. In this review we assess current clinical trials targeting two enzymes, leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) and glucocerebrosidase (GBA), which are encoded by two most common PD risk genes. Because the details of the pathogenic processes coupled to the different LRRK2and GBA risk variants are not fully understood, we ask if these precision medicine-based intervention strategies will prove “precise“ or “personalized“ enough to modify the disease process in PD patients. We also consider at what phases of the disease that such strategies might be effective, in light of the genes being primarily associated with the risk of developing disease in the first place, and less clearly linked to the rate of disease progression. Finally, we critically evaluate the notion that therapies targeting LRRK2 and GBA might be relevant to a wider segment of PD patients, beyond those that actually carry risk variants of these genes.

Screen viewing time is the total time spent by a child on any digital/electronic device. The objective of the present study was to determine the incidence and predictors of excessive screen viewing time in children in Ujjain, India. This cross-sectional, community-based study was conducted through house-to-house survey by using the three-stage cluster sampling method in 36 urban wards and 36 villages of Ujjain district, India. Excessive screen viewing time was defined as screen viewing for &gt; 2 h/day. The prevalence of excessive screen viewing time was 17.83%. Risk factors identified using the multivariate logistic regression model were: age (OR: 1.5, P &lt; 0.001); mobile phone use before bedtime (OR: 3.17, P = 0.008); parents’ perception about the child habituated to screen (OR: 14.03, P &lt; 0.001); television in bedroom (OR: 48.69, P &lt; 0.001); morning mobile screen viewing time (OR: 9.27, P &lt; 0.001); not reading books other than textbooks (OR: 9.71, P &lt; 0.001); and lack of outdoor play for &gt;2 h (OR: 4.20, P &lt; 0.001). Presence of eye pain was a protective factor for excessive screen viewing time (OR: 0.12, P = 0.011). The study identified multiple modifiable risk factors for excessive screen viewing time.

The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, hygiene behaviors such as keeping distance, avoid-ing masses, wearing face masks and adhering to hand hygiene recommendations became impera-tive. The current study aims to determine factors interrelating with hygiene behaviors. Methods: 4,049 individuals (1,305 male, 2,709 female, aged 18-80 years) were recruited from rehabilitation clinics or freely on the internet and surveyed via online questionnaire between May 2020 and August 2021. Socio-demographics, hygiene behaviors, emotions (fear), life-satisfaction, risk factors and disability as well as communication were assessed. Results: Prevalence for hygiene behaviors was: keeping the distance 84.9%, avoiding mass gatherings 84.6%, wearing face masks 96.5% and hand hygiene 80.7%. Hygiene behaviors were significantly related to fear with linear and quad-ratic associations. Conclusion: Individuals with disabilities, risk factors and psychological symp-toms are more compliant. Especially hand hygiene should be targeted to achieve higher compli-ance rates. A medium level of fear is more functional than too elevated fear. Behavioral interven-tions and targeted communication aiming at improving different behaviors in orchestration can help individuals to remain healthy and maintain a high life-satisfaction. Thereby, communication in the healthcare setting is imperative and all involved individuals should become more aware of this to ensure high hygiene standards and patient safety.

Objectives: A wealth of literature has established risk factors for social isolation among older people, however much of this research has focused on community-dwelling populations. Relatively little is known about how risk of social isolation is experienced among those living in long-term care (LTC) homes. We conducted a scoping review to identify possible risk factors for social isolation among older adults living in LTC homes. Methods: A systematic search of five online databases retrieved 1535 unique articles. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: Thematic analyses revealed that possible risk factors exist at three levels: individual (e.g., communication barriers), systems (e.g., location of LTC facility), and structural factors (e.g., discrimination). Discussion: Our review identified several risk factors for social isolation that have been previously documented in literature, in addition to several risks that may be unique to those living in LTC homes. Results highlight several scholarly and practical implications.

This review aimed to update the main aspects of aflatoxin production, occurrence and incidence in selected countries, and associated aflatoxicosis outbreaks. Means to reduce aflatoxin incidence in crops were also presented with an emphasis on the environment-friendly technology using atoxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus. Aflatoxins are unavoidable widespread natural contaminants of foods and feeds with serious impact on health, agricultural and livestock productivity, and food safety. They are secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus species distributed on three main sections of the genus (section Flavi, section Ochraceorosei, and section Nidulantes). Poor economic status of a country exacerbates the risk and the extent of crop contamination due to faulty storage conditions that are usually suitable for mold growth and mycotoxin production: temperature of 22 to 29°C and water activity of 0.90 to 0.99. This situation paralleled the prevalence of high liver cancer and the occasional acute aflatoxicosis episodes that have been associated with these regions. Risk assessment studies revealed that Southeast Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries remain at high risk and that, apart from the regulatory standards revision to be more restrictive, other actions to prevent or decontaminate crops are to be taken for adequate public health protection. Indeed, a review of publications on the incidence of aflatoxins in selected foods and feeds from countries whose crops are classically known for their highest contamination with aflatoxins, reveals that despite the intensive efforts made to reduce such an incidence, there has been no clear tendency, with the possible exception of South Africa, towards sustained improvements. Nonetheless, a global risk assessment of the new situation regarding crop contamination with aflatoxins by international organizations with the required expertise is suggested to appraise where we stand presently.

There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests to use terms that appear to be the more logic and explicit as possible, and describes methods to derive some of the main hazard and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized hazards and diffused hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the propagation probability and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (reach frequency) can be derived. However, when the element at risk is not replaced or repaired, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall must be considered.

This work analyzes the severity and risk associated with Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) message drop out in Detect and Avoid (DAA) function of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). Performance assessment of the Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) ADS-B message implies that in some cases ADS-B fails to update within a specified update interval, which is referred to as drop out in this work. ADS-B is a fundamental surveillance sensor for both class 1 and class 2 DAA systems. Message loss or drop out has been found as one of the common limitations of the ADS-B system. The key feature of this study is incorporating the update rate of real ADS-B data transmitted from the manned aircraft. The data were received from the Grand Forks International Airport, North Dakota. Monte Carlo method has been adopted to resolve encounter scenarios in the presence of drop out. The change in the alert triggered by the UAS DAA in the presence of ADS-B drop out has been investigated. Furthermore, the risk matrices are created to quantify the associated risk with drop out affected alerts. Simulation results depict that both the duration of drop out and DAA look-ahead time affect the alert-triggering function of UAS. With a small look- ahead window and longer duration of drop out, the number of warning alerts increases. Also, alerts are affected more during an overtaking encounter than that of a head-to-head encounter. A system-level analysis is also carried out to recognize the potential reasons behind the ADS-B drop out.

Methanol is a natural ingredient with major occurrence in fruit spirits, such as apple, pear, plum or cherry spirits, but also in spirits made from coffee pulp. The compound is formed during fermentation and the following mash storage by enzymatic hydrolysis of naturally present pectins. Methanol is toxic above certain threshold levels and legal limits have been set in most jurisdictions. Therefore, the methanol content needs to be mitigated and its level must be controlled. This article will review the several factors that influence the methanol content including the pH value of the mash, the addition of various yeast and enzyme preparations, fermentation temperature, mash storage, and most importantly the raw material quality and hygiene. From all these mitigation possibilities, lowering the pH value and the use of cultured yeasts when mashing fruit substances is already common as best practice today. Also a controlled yeast fermentation at acidic pH facilitates not only reduced methanol formation, but ultimately also leads to quality benefits of the distillate. Special care has to be observed in the case of spirits made from coffee by-products which are prone to spoilage with very high methanol contents reported in past studies.

The data for the study on the epidemiology of bovine mastitis were collected fromNovember 2015 to February 2016 to investigate the prevalence of mastitis in administrative towns of three selected districts of Arsi zone, Oromia Regional State, namely Iteya, Sagure, and Asella, Ethiopia; and to analyze the association between the risk factors and mastitis occurrence. Sample cows were selected and examined for clinical mastitis and at the same time, milk samples were evaluated both clinically and using the California Mastitis Test (CMT). Some parameters of the cows which have biological relation with this disease together with other potential risk factors were collected along with primary data collection. The analysis of the primary data showed that overall mastitis prevalence in the locations covered by the study was 28.6% of which 83.3% was subclinical, while 16.7% were clinical mastitis cases. Analysis related to the investigation of the existence of an association between risk factors and mastitis revealed that there was a significant association between the occurrence of mastitis and two of the risk factors evaluated, breed and age of the cow. The other risk factors investigated (i.e. parity, location, and lactation stage had no significant association with mastitis occurrence). Since mastitis is a complex disease that results from the interaction of different factors, it may be difficult to limit it to only some given factors. Environment and management factors and their combination may also have an additional impact on the epidemiology of the disease. A prevalence with the indicated magnitude together with the added effect of a lower level of awareness of the society about milk-associated zoonoses implies that this disease causes significant public health problems. In addition, mastitis may cause silent economic loss through unnoticed production loss along with reduced milk yield from subclinical and clinical (e.g. blind teats) cases. Due to a lack of awareness about mastitis and/or negligence, farmers in all corners of the country are suffering from economic and public health problems imposed by mastitis. This lack of awareness about mastitis-associated problems and/or negligence could be a possible reason for the use of raw milk which is a common scenario particularly in pastoral areas and the selling of adulterated milk which is becoming increasingly practiced in Ethiopia which is also true in these specific localities.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

The long-term laboratory aspects of the effects of COVID-19 on liver function are still not well understood. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the hepatic clinical-laboratory profile of patients with up to 20 months of long-term COVID-19. A total of 243 patients of both sexes aged 18 years or older hospitalised in the acute phase of COVID-19 were included in this study. Liver function analysis was performed. Changes were identified in the mean levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and ferritin. Inflammatory markers such as ferritin > 300 U/L were observed in the group that presented more changes in liver function markers (ALT, AST, and GGT). Age ≥ 60 years, male sex, AST > 25 U/L, and GGT ≥ 50 or 32 U/L were associated with ALT > 29 U/L. There was a correlation between ALT and AST, LDH, GGT, and ferritin. Our findings suggest that ALT and AST levels may be elevated in patients with long-term COVID, especially in those hospitalised in the acute phase. In addition, ALT > 29 U/L was associated with other markers of liver injury, such as LDH, GGT, and ferritin.

Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.

Introduction and objectives: a close association between metabolic syndrome among subjects with erectile dysfunction has been addressed, since mechanisms underlying metabolic syndrome compromise the blood flow to the penis in numerous ways. This study aims to analyze the relationship between erectile dysfunction and metabolic syndrome in a group of Mexican patients, to study the influence of other morbidity factors on erectile dysfunction, and to define the specific metabolic syndrome components most associated with erectile dysfunction severity. Methods: a descriptive and cross-sectional study was completed in a group of 86 adult Mexican patients with previous diagnosis of erectile dysfunction. Participants were classified as with or without metabolic syndrome. Erectile dysfunction severity, alcohol or tobacco consumption, and depressive behavior were identified through validated questionnaires and compared between both groups, as well as anthropometric, biochemical, and clinical parameters. Results: anthropometric measures, laboratory values, clinical characteristics and the Beck Depression Inventory score were significantly different among both groups. Additionally, more patients affected by severe and moderate erectile dysfunction were identified in the group with metabolic syndrome. Among the metabolic syndrome components, HbA1c >5.7% and fasting glucose >110 mg/dl were significantly associated to the development of erectile dysfunction (p = 0.004 and 0.04, respectively). Conclusions: metabolic syndrome components aggravate erectile dysfunction, particularly the lack of glycemic control manifested by Hb1Ac >5.7% and/or fasting glucose >110 mg/dL. The inclusion of fasting glucose and HbA1c as a complementary biochemical screening among patients with erectile dysfunction should be assessed.

The introduction of the Internet of Things (IoT), i.e. the interconnection of embedded devices over the Internet, has changed the world we live in from the way we measure, make calls, print information and even the way we get energy in our offices or homes. The convenience of IoT products, like CCTV cameras, IP phones, and oscilloscopes, is overwhelming for end-users. In parallel, however, security issues have emerged and it is essential for infrastructure providers to assess the associated security risks. In this paper, we propose a novel method to detect IoT devices and identify the manufacturer, device model, and the firmware version currently running on the device using the page source from the web user interface. We performed automatic scans of the large-scale network at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) to evaluate our approach. Our tools identified 233 IoT devices that fell into eleven distinct device categories and included 49 device models manufactured by 26 vendors from across the world.

In this study, we described the most critical risk factors for different malignancies including: breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal carcinoma among others, with an emphasis on modifiable risk factors. We revised the literature review about risk factors involved in the genesis of cancer in various databases, including articles indexed in PUBMED, SCOPUS, PMC, and Google Scholar. Awareness of risk factors enables conscious decisions to be made in an effort to combat malignancies. Knowing risk factors is a mode of fighting malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, practises, and laboratory/clinical interventions were among risk factors of diverse malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, laboratory/clinical interventions all contribute to the genesis and prognosis in a variety of malignancies. We concluded that abstaining from risk factors can prevent the development of many malignancies in a century where this conundrum is raising disproportionately. By informing the public about modifiable risk factors cancer mortality rates can be reduced. It is treated here is to make the public aware of the modifiable risks of cancers.

A new model for risk assessment of urban rainstorm disasters, based on information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-VFS) was proposed. In addition, an integrated index system of urban rainstorm risk was established. In the proposed model, IDM was employed to calculate the classification standards of urban rainstorm risk levels, then the VFS was adopted to assess the dangerousness, sensitivity, vulnerability and comprehensive risk of urban rainstorm disasters. In the present study, the urban rainstorm risk of Jiangsu province was evaluated with the proposed model. The results show that Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou have higher dangerousness, due to sustained rainfall and strong rainfall intensity in short duration; Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing have higher sensitivity because of lower disaster resistance ability; and Wuxi and Suzhou have higher vulnerability because these cities have higher potential losses in face of urban rainstorm disasters. The comprehensive risk zoning map of urban rainstorm shows apparent regional characteristics: the northwestern cities have lower risk than the southern cities. Moreover, most cities of the Jiangsu province are of the moderate urban rainstorm risk level. The results are consistent with the actual situation of Jiangsu province, and the study can provide some decision-making references for the urban rainstorm management.

Flood is identified as one of the major disasters in the world; it destroys both human and properties across the world, where lives are lost, properties, public infrastructure, farmlands and agricultural produce with farm crops carted away as a result of flood disaster. Studies revealed that the flood in itself is not the danger, but the level of human vulnerability to flooding disaster risk, which enhances its destructive capabilities. However, based on the challenges poses by flood disaster risk, this research identifies Ala river in Akure as a potential cause of flood, considering its location and other human activities around the river. Therefore, the research used Ala-river a case study to identify and mapped out areas susceptible to flood disaster risk. The research made use of both literature review and conducted goe-data gathering with the application GIS-computer database to retrieve georeferencing relevant data from the fieldwork in the study area of Ala-river basin to mapped out locations vulnerable to achieve the research aim. The research adopted a Geo-mapping of the vulnerable area to Ala-River basin using arc-GIS tool in combination with other software such as IKONAS and OLI (Operation Land Imager) for the production of the study area imagery, ER-ITERIM was used for the collection of rainfall data and FAO was applied for digital soil mapping. These applications produced; the land use/land cover map, digital elevation map, buffer map using 30 meters setback, annual rainfall map, soil types map, vulnerability map and soil textural table for the study area. Analysis of the produced and generated maps shows 316 buildings vulnerability to flood disaster risk; the soil texture and types, and alternative use to which the soil types can be useful. The research recommends that demolition of the identified 316 buildings prone to flood disaster and compliance of building construction to 30 meters setback by developers. Others are the conversion of the future land setback for urban agricultural purposes and preservation of water retention areas for agricultural activities during the dry season among others. The study concludes that relevant government agencies in the State and in particular in Akure South Local Government should ensure prompt compliance and implementation of the recommendations to avoid potential flood disaster risks.

COVID-19 appeared as an infectious disease of global health emergency and the highest public health concern of 21st century for this world due to its high-speed of spread across the globe. The disease started as one single case to a cluster of cases in Wuhan, China (Dec 2019) and within few months with its continuous upsurge of cases spreading globally which has created enormous threat and tension across the global Public health care field. Most significantly to share the fact that, this disease caused high level of Risk Group mortality, high morbidity, health care services burden, panic anxiety, mental trauma and tension, social and economic insecurity, which also collectively surfaced by diverse range of social reaction and political pressure across the world. Also with the appearance of new and unknown pathogenesis of the disease has created the most and significant attention and concern for the scientific community and political leaders as well. The disease also varies much with its pattern of virus, sign, symptoms, characteristics including its epidemiological and public health response (like prevention strategy, diagnoses, case management, treatment pattern) across the countries. However, this variance is comparatively less rather even more in commonality while it comes to basic public health prevention interventions like frequent hand washing, wearing face mask, maintaining social/physical distancing (2 - 6 meter in between), individual isolation and community quarantine for suspected exposure and lockdown in community areas where cases are identified. These are with the most commonly practiced public health interventions to deal with this disease in majority of the epicenters across countries. Also with the progress of the disease with its diverse categorical appearance of sign symptoms which are uniquely portraying this disease is more of a kind of COVID-19 syndrome than as COVID-19. Moreover, various factors including socio economic status, health status, population dynamics, health system and infrastructure, health behavioral pattern, nutrition and food habit and access to information and knowledge made this viral disease one of the historically counted on expensive disease of the modern world to fight for. Specially to mention here, the case fatality rate distinctively vary with the population dynamics and the health system infrastructure and ability factors which have already created clear evidence as explained in this paper how these factors are uniquely distinguished and different from country to country. Apart from the contextual differences, the various kind of ongoing preventive measures (like prevention, diagnosis and treatment) learnt every day from the emerging characteristics and pattern of this viral disease which are most commonly practiced across countries with a variance. According to the Public health prevention practice and interventions, the total world is connected and learning from each other’s public health experiences to fight for the virus. However, the world communities are eagerly waiting to see the result and outcome of the ongoing therapeutics and vaccine trial initiated in several countries, the people of the world are quite optimistic and hopeful that, global scientific community will be able to invent some miraculous and magic solution in upcoming months which ultimately will free the world from this most terrifying COVID-19 pandemic of 21st century.

Risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are not well-defined in resident physicians and fellows (trainees). We aimed to identify sociodemographic, occupational and community factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among trainees during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in New York City (NYC). In this retrospective cohort study, we administered an electronic survey between June 26 and August 31, 2020 to trainees at the Mount Sinai Health System in NYC to assess risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection between February 1 and June 30, 2020. We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect regression and structural equation models to examine associations. SAR-CoV-2 infection was determined by self-reported IgG antibody and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction results and confirmed with laboratory results. Among 2354 trainees invited to participate, 328 (14%) completed the survey and reported test results. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 20.1%. Assignment to medical-surgical units (odds ratio [OR], 2.51; 95% CI, 1.18-5.34), and training in emergency medicine, critical care and anesthesiology (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.24-6.92) were independently associated with infection. Deployment to care for unfamiliar patient populations was protective against infection (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.73). Community factors were not significantly associated with infection after adjustment for occupational factors. Our findings may inform tailored infection prevention strategies for trainees responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this study, we examine the relationship of bank level lending and borrowing decisions and the risk preferences on the dynamics of the interbank lending We develop an agent-based model that incorporates individual bank decisions using the temporal difference reinforcement learning algorithm with empirical data of 6600 S. banks. The model can successfully replicate the key characteristics of interbank lending and borrowing relationships documented in the recent literatur A key finding of this study is that risk preferences at individual bank level can lead to unique interbank market structures which are suggestive of the capacity that the market responds to surprising