Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Geological Risk Calculation through Probability of Success (PoS), Applied to Radioactive Waste Disposal in Deep Wells: A Case Study in the Pre-neogene Basement in the Northern Croatia

Version 1 : Received: 25 May 2020 / Approved: 26 May 2020 / Online: 26 May 2020 (04:11:18 CEST)

How to cite: Malvić, T.; Pimenta Dinis, M.A.; Velić, J.; Sremac, J.; Ivšinović, J.; Bošnjak, M.; Barudžija, U.; Veinović, Ž.; Pedrosa e Sousa, H.F. Geological Risk Calculation through Probability of Success (PoS), Applied to Radioactive Waste Disposal in Deep Wells: A Case Study in the Pre-neogene Basement in the Northern Croatia. Preprints 2020, 2020050418 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0418.v1). Malvić, T.; Pimenta Dinis, M.A.; Velić, J.; Sremac, J.; Ivšinović, J.; Bošnjak, M.; Barudžija, U.; Veinović, Ž.; Pedrosa e Sousa, H.F. Geological Risk Calculation through Probability of Success (PoS), Applied to Radioactive Waste Disposal in Deep Wells: A Case Study in the Pre-neogene Basement in the Northern Croatia. Preprints 2020, 2020050418 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0418.v1).

Abstract

The basic principles of geological risk calculation through Probability of Success (PoS) are mostly applied for numerical estimation of additional hydrocarbon existence in proven reservoirs or potential hydrocarbon discoveries in selected geological regional subsurface volume. It can be tailored and validated for a comprehensive input dataset collected in the selected petroleum province, adapted by dividing up geological events into several probability categories and classes. The most applied categories are (existence of) reservoir rocks, traps and isolators, source rocks, migration pathways and preservation conditions for hydrocarbons The methodology results in unique probability values as multiplication of independent statistical events, which can also be applied in the assessment of a potential hydrocarbon discovery of desired minimal volume and its value in any virtual currency like risk-neutral dollars. Such methodology has been extensively developed in the last decades in the Croatian subsurface, mostly in the Croatian part of the Pannonian Basin System (CPBS). Through the adaptation of geological categories, it was also applied in hybrid, i.e., stochastical, models developed in the CPBS (Drava Depression). Stochastically estimation of porosity was already applied. As the robustness of this methodology is very high, it was also modified to estimate the influence of water-flooding in increasing oil recovery in some proven Neogene sandstone reservoirs in the CPBS (Sava Depression). This new modification is being presented to be applied to geological risk calculation, intending to assess the safety of geological environment in deep wells, where depleted radioactive fuel would be disposed, a subject of great importance. The case study encompassed the magmatic and metamorphic rocks in the pre-Neogene basement of the CPBS. For disposal purpose, these are regionally lithologies considered as to be the safest ones considering petrophysical values, water saturation, recent weathering and tectonic activity.

Subject Areas

geological risk; pre-Neogene basement; radioactive waste; waste disposal; Northern Croatia; Probability of Success (PoS)

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