IDENTIFICATION OF RISK AND SEVERITY OF COVID-19 SPREAD IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE

Corona virus disease (COVID-19) Pandemic outbreak is increasing day by day since it started and has reached to all the corners of the world. In last few months, it has covered all countries/regions and almost entire population in the world in under the threat of COVID 19. Spread of COVID 19 is not only important in terms of the number of people getting infected but also important that how a government is managing to control the disease. So, present manuscript is integrating the concept of classification by segregating the daily cases COVID 19 cases in different risk zones. We have also analysed COVID 19 cases reported with reference to area and population and then identified the countries which are severely affected continuously and those which are the under zero impact groups.


Introduction:
SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome emerged in Wuhan, China in mid-December 2019 [1]. Despite of the best of the efforts by China to contain the disease, it quickly spread to other regions of China and also to the other countries across the world. CoV-2 is very similar to the previous two coronaviruses which lead to epidemics in 2002-2003 and 2012-2014, in terms of viral structure but too fast as compared to the previous two similar epidemics. SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was declared as global health emergency on 30 January 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [2]. Within three months it infected more than 4.5 million people throughout both northern and southern hemispheres with three lakhs deaths. After China, other countries which were severely hit are Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Germany and USA.
Other countries of Europe and UK also were badly affected as the time progressed. For the pandemics, it is very important to monitor the timeline of spread and trace the progress of disease event with time. In case of highly transmissible disease like influenza [3,4] and, previous and ongoing SARS-CoV epidemic [5] and, real time tracking of disease spread and using population travel data for prediction of spread risk [6] are becoming necessary for timely understanding of the new origin source or hotspots of disease, epidemiology and dynamics, and in guiding our effective response to it. Mapping the disease spread acts as critical means for tracking and managing contagious diseases. Many pandemics in the past, including Plague in Italy in 17th century [7] followed by cholera, yellow fever and Influenza pandemic in 1918 worldwide had been tackled by means of mapping the cases at any place. According to a report published on 2014 about health information system, twenty eight percent focused on mapping of infectious disease [8].
There is a dramatic advancement in geographical mapping applied to health through web-based tools [9,10]. In the pandemic situations like COVID-19, it is very important to monitor the spread of disease and keep informing both the government and, public and health professionals. It helps in decision and policy making by government of different countries. It also helps to understand the issues like source of outbreak, Public events, hotspots identification, supply chain etc. Effective information system along with the use of big data from different sources and display results in interactive and real-time platforms have become a main information source during the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
In the study of infectious disease, unexpected shifts or trends can be detected through quality control limits. [11] Discussed a general trend for serology testing in centralized laboratories based on quality control (QC) principles. They analyzed 103 QC data sets and obtained six different infectious diseases for establishing statistical control limits. [12] used robust statistical methods for analyzing surveillance data and compared through contrast statistical process control (SPC) charts with Twitter's anomaly and breakout detection algorithms. Similar study can be seen by [13, 14. 15]. This paper offers mapping the spread of disease with total cases to understand the risk of COVID 19 in various regions of the world. The risk of COVID 19 spreading is more if infected person is moving which can be stopped majorly by social distancing. We have studied the cumulative cases of COVID 19 and identified the regions which are severely affected. Its applications will help for tracking the coronavirus epidemic and events associated with it as they come forward to the world.
Receiving data updates in real-time from different sources and collecting at one place in a single, easy to understand visual form, can support to contain infectious COVID-19 disease and other outbreaks and epidemics. This was a new disease and recorded first time, so no idea was available about the complexity and behavior of its spread. Present era is globally open for economy as well as knowledge due to which there is regular movement of people between the province and countries. Government may try their level best and try various measures to contain the disease in country or at province, but due to unknown behavior of disease, it efforts may succeed or fail. This analysis can be done based of daily recorded CIVID19 infection and analyzing with respect to area as well as population. The data regarding number of COVID-19 patients, human population of a particular geographical location was collected from various sources listed below: As per the distribution theory, a variable follows specific distribution functions. Considering the limitation of study, we have taken minimum 25 participating countries for the analysis and assumed that COVID 19 cases are following normal distribution and then identified the list of the countries falling in above eight zones. For data handling and processing purposes, R and MS Excel were used.

S. No. Information Source
Maps and visualizations were generated using Tableau.

Results and Discussion
First case of COVID 19 came in picture on December 31, 2019 and within few months it reached all over the world. The infectious disease usually expands in exponential manner across the population as well as area through the medium/ opportunity. The Social distancing has also became a proven mechanism to slow down the growth of present pandemic So, we have analysed the total COVID 19 cases recorded from the first day of infection and segregated the countries assuming the normal distribution of positive cases from various countries in all eight regions.

3.1: COVID 19 Infection Severity:
All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020.
For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis.
Maximum number of day's data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.

3.2: COVID 19 till May 10, 2020:
For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. So, we have continued the analysis and segregated it for every ten days starting from March 31, 2020 till May 10, 2020. We have identified the severity of COVID 19 cases in various infected countries. As the infectious disease always depends on opportunity of spreading and transporter, so we identified the severity level with respect to population and area.

3.2.1: Number of COVID 19 till May 10, 2020
Present section dealt with the COVID19 cases recorded in various countries till the May 10, 2020.
The Figure-1  In the segregation of HRZ, it is also important to know, which countries are in normal situation named ARZ. Third figure of Figure-1 gives us idea about the percentage of its total days (after first case) for which a certain country has gone through average risk. Mexico has increased its days in There are only a few countries falling in SRZ, Gibraltar (65.38%), Monaco (90.28%↑) and Vatican City (53.85%↑) have also this zone to be its dominant zone with a huge percentage of days. Though Singapore (23%)↓ and Bahrain (5.19%↓) have been in this zone for a very less percentage of days, but this doesn't mean that these will be out of this zone further. These countries must take quick actions to curb the spread of COVID-19 because they can come under this zone in upcoming days.

3.2.3: Number of COVID 19 per million populations till May 10, 2020:
Health is not for total area under threat but also depends on the number of carriers. In COVID 19, all humans can become the carrier for COVID transmission. So, we have analysed the total number of COVID 19 cases till May 10, 2020. Here, we have analysed total confirmed COVID 19 cases per 1 million populations to get more generalized idea for comparing the countries across the world. This will give idea about the shifting of risk zone due to population. Figure 3 showing the countries falling on various risk zone. As there are different number of days of infections of various countries so we have recorded the in