Objectives: To develop and validate the Communities Geriatric Mild Cognitive Impairment Risk Calculator (CGMCI-Risk), aimed at aiding community healthcare workers in the early identification of individuals at high risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI); Methods: Based on nationally representative community survey data, backward stepwise regression was employed to screen the variables, and logistic regression was utilized to construct the CGMCI-Risk. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrap resampling, while external validation was performed using temporal validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to evaluate the CGMCI-Risk in terms of discrimination, calibration, and net benefit, respectively; Results: The CGMCI-Risk model included variables such as age, educational level, sex, exercise, garden work, TV watching or radio listening, Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL), hearing, and masticatory function. The AUROC was 0.781 (95% CI = 0.766 to 0.796). Calibration curve showed strong agreement, and the DCA suggested substantial clinical utility. In external validation, the CGMCI-Risk model maintained similar performance with an AUROC of 0.782 (95% CI = 0.763 to 0.801); Conclusions: CGMCI-Risk is an effective tool for assessing cognitive function risk within the community. It uses readily predictor variables, allowing community healthcare workers to identify the risk of MCI in older adults over a three-year span.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

By reinterpreting the calibration of structural models, a reassessment of the importance of the input variables is undertaken. The analysis shows that volatility is the key parameter to any calibration exercise by several orders of magnitude. In order to maximize the sensitivity to volatility, a simple formulation of Merton’s model is proposed that employs deep out-of-the-money option implied volatilities. The methodology also eliminates the use of historic data to specify the default barrier thereby leading to a full risk neutral calibration. Subsequently, a new technique for identifying and hedging capital structure arbitrage opportunities is illustrated. The approach seeks to hedge the volatility risk, or vega, as opposed to the exposure from the underlying equity itself, or delta. The results question the efficacy of the common arbitrage strategy of only executing the delta hedge.

The volatility of global energy markets, particularly electricity prices, plays a crucial role in influencing international economic activities. With the ongoing global energy transition and the push for low-carbon development, predicting electricity prices has become increasingly important for policymakers and market participants. This paper explores the forecasting capabilities of the ARIMA and LSTM models in analyzing electricity prices in the United States, drawing from data spanning 2001 to 2024.ARIMA, a traditional time series model, is valued for its simplicity and effectiveness in capturing linear trends, while LSTM, a deep learning-based model, excels at handling long-term dependencies in complex datasets. This study reveals that while both models offer valuable insights, each exhibits limitations. ARIMA struggles with non-linear patterns and volatility, whereas LSTM tends to underestimate extreme price values. The findings highlight the potential of hybrid models that combine traditional and machine learning approaches to enhance forecasting accuracy in the increasingly dynamic energy market. This research provides essential guidance for improving decision-making processes in the context of the global shift towards clean energy.

This article presents an estimation of the hypertension risk based on a dataset on 1007 individuals. The application of a Tobit Model shows that “Hypertension” is positively associated to “Age”, “BMI-Body Mass Index”, and “Heart Rate”. The data show that the element that has the greatest impact in determining inflation risk is “BMI-Body Mass Index”. An analysis was then carried out using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the use of the Silhouette coefficient. The result shows that the optimal number of clusters is 9. A comparison was then made between eight different machine-learning algorithms for predicting the value of the Hypertension Risk. The best performing algorithm is the Gradient Boosted Trees Regression according to the analyzed dataset. The results show that there are 37 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value greater than 0.75, 35 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value between 0.5 and 0.75, while 227 individuals have a hypertension value between 0.0 and 0.5 units.

Background Pregnancy is a process of maturity for women that requires adaptation to the changes in their new roles. Adjustment to a new role is not easy, especially if the pregnancy is accompanied by risks, so it is necessary to get treatment to minimize complications. Dyad models that optimize husband or family support are very important to prevent the risk of complications and adapt mothers to their new roles. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the dyad model on high-risk pregnancies. The method used with a literature review is through the collection of articles from Scopus, ebsco, ProQuest and PubMed. The results obtained were articles from Scopus 9, Ebsco 107, PubMed 214 and ProQuest 85 which carried out identification, screening and eligibility for 25 articles. Overall results mention. Journals are categorized into 4 groups, Dyad Model and social support, high-risk pregnancy, maternal role and Self Efficacy. Conclusion, there is an effect of the dyad model on care for high-risk pregnancies.

The integration of deep learning models into financial risk prediction and analysis has significantly transformed traditional approaches. While conventional quantitative methods often rely on simplistic metrics like maximum drawdown, the advent of deep learning necessitates a more nuanced evaluation, emphasizing the model's generalization ability, especially during market crises such as stock market crashes. This paper explores the critical aspects of evaluating deep learning models' risk control capabilities in finance, underscoring the importance of understanding both statistical metrics and generalization abilities, particularly in adverse market conditions. By examining deep learning models' performance in scenarios like stock market crashes and highlighting the significance of cross-validation techniques, this study aims to offer practitioners insights into constructing robust risk management systems. It advocates for a comprehensive approach integrating quantitative analysis with macroeconomic factors to enhance financial risk prediction and analysis in volatile markets. The experimentation reveals that different deep generative models excel in various aspects of financial time series analysis, with generative adversarial networks (GANs) demonstrating superior performance in predicting Value at Risk (VaR) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) excelling in return rate prediction. Moreover, integrating multiple models further enhances predictive performance, leveraging the strengths of each model to compensate for individual weaknesses. Overall, this paper underscores the potential and significance of deep generative models in financial time series analysis, offering a roadmap for improved risk management and decision-making in financial markets.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global health concern driven by factors such as obesity, sedentary behavior, and poor diet. This study uses data from the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) to analyze regional and individual predictors of diabetes and predi-abetes. Employing a Bayesian multinomial mixed-effects model, we account for regional varia-bility and individual factors like age, gender, BMI, residence, wealth, education, employment, and hypertension. Our results indicate significant regional differences and associations between de-mographic and health-related factors with diabetes risk. Younger individuals and those with higher BMI are more likely to be diabetic, while hypertension significantly increases diabetes risk. We applied machine learning (ML) models, including logistic regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis, and random forest, to classify diabetic status using these predictors, assessing their accuracy through 10-fold cross-validation. Logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis demonstrated robust performance across various response distributions. Simulation studies further examined the impact of different response distributions on model performance, revealing significant differences in classification accuracies. This approach of esti-mating parameters with a Bayesian model, applying ML for prediction, and conducting simulation studies to explore various scenarios highlights the importance of integrating these methodologies for effective diabetes prediction, providing insights for public health strategies to mitigate T2DM's impact.

Background: The first few minutes after birth are the most dangerous for the survival of an infant. Babies in neonatal intensive care units are either under heated or overheated, and hypothermic infants remain hypothermic or develop a fever. As a result, special attention must be paid to monitoring and maintaining the time of recovery from hypothermia states. Despite numerous studies, only a few have examined the transition from neonatal hypothermia and associated risk factors in depth. Method: A retrospective observational study was conducted to track axillary temperatures taken at the time of neonatal intensive care unit admission, which were then tracked every 30 minutes until the newborn's temperature stabilized. All hypothermic neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between January 2018 and December 2020 was included in the study. Temperature data were available at birth and within the first three hours of admission for 391 eligible hypothermic neonates. The effect of factors on the transition rate in different states of hypothermia was estimated using a multi-state Markov model. Result: The likelihood of progressing from mild to severe hypothermia was 5%, while the likelihood of progressing to normal was 34%. The average time spent in a severe hypothermia state was 48, 35, and 24 minutes for three different levels of birth weight, and 53, 41, and 31 minutes for low, moderate, and normal Apgar scores, respectively. Furthermore, the mean sojourn time in a severe hypothermia state was 48, 39, and 31 minutes for three different levels of high, normal, and low pulse rate, respectively. Conclusion: For hypothermic survivors within the first three hours of life, very low birth weight, low Apgar, and high pulse rate had the strongest association with hypothermia and took the longest time to improve/recover. As a result, there is an urgent need to train all levels of staff dealing with maintaining the time of recovery from neonatal hypothermia.

Various sudden shifts in financial market conditions over the past decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms' credit behavior. To characterize such effect quantitatively, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms' credit rating transitions with the possibility of market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms' observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms' credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms' credit rating transitions.

This article considers the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development in relation to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. We conceptualize sustainability from a social systemic perspective, that is, from a perspective that encompasses the multiple functionalities of a social system and their interrelationships in particular environmental contexts. The systems perspective is applied in our consideration and analysis of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development (SD). Section 1 introduces briefly sustainability and sustainable development, followed by a brief presentation of the theory of complex social systems (Section 2). The theory conceptualizes interdependent subsystems, their multiple functionalities, and the agential and systemic responses to internal and external stressors on a social system. Section 3 considers disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), emerging in response to one or more systemic stressors. It illustrates these with disaster risk reduction in the cases of food and chemical security regulation in the EU. CCA is illustrated by initiatives and developments on the island of Gotland, Sweden and in the Gothenburg Metropolitan area, which go beyond a limited CCA perspective, taking into account long-term sustainability issues. Section 4 discusses the limitations of DRR and CCA, not only their technical limitations but economic, socio-cultural, and political limitations, as informed from a sustainability perspective. It is argued that DRRs are only partial subsystems and must be considered and assessed in the context of a more encompassing systemic perspective. Part of the discussion is focused on the distinction between sustainable and non-sustainable DRRs and CCAs. Section 5 presents a few concluding remarks about the importance of a systemic perspective in analyzing DRR and CCA as well as other similar subsystems in terms of sustainable development.

This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.

In the rapidly evolving field of insurance, accurate risk measurement is crucial for effective claims management and financial stability. Therefore, this research presented a systematic literature review (SLR) on insurance claims risk measurement using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Bibliometric analysis was conducted using VOSviewer and ResearchRabbit software to map research trends and collaboration networks in this topic. The review explored the implementation of HMM in predicting the frequency and magnitude of insurance claims, with a focus on the statistical distribution methods used. In addition, the research emphasized the influence of the number of hidden states in HMM on claims behavior, both in terms of frequency and magnitude, and provided interpretations of these hidden dynamics. Data sources for the review comprised three databases, namely Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Dimensions. The article selection process followed PRISMA guidelines, resulting in five key articles relevant to the topic. The results offered insights into the application of HMM for forecasting the frequency and severity of insurance claims and opened avenues for further investigation on distribution models and hidden state modeling.

We examine the profitability of the momentum and contrarian strategies in three South Asian markets i.e. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. We also analyze, whether credit risk influences momentum and contrarian return for these markets from 2008 to 2014. We use Distance-to-default (DD) of Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek (KMV) model as a measure of credit risk. We calculate the credit risk and form the momentum and contrarian strategies of the firms on the basis of high, medium and low risk. We find that in all three markets, the momentum and contrarian returns are significant for medium and high credit risk portfolios and no momentum and contrarian returns for low credit risk portfolios.

Survival models have become popular for credit risk estimation. Most current credit risk survival models use an underlying linear model. This is beneficial in terms of interpretability but is restrictive for real-life applications since it cannot discover hidden nonlinearities and interactions within the data. This study uses discrete time survival models with embedded neural networks as estimators of time to default. This provides flexibility to express nonlinearities and interactions between variables, and hence allows for models with better overall model fit. Additionally, the neural networks are used to estimate Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models so that default risk can be decomposed into time components for loan age (maturity), origination (vintage) and environment (e.g., economic, operational and social effects). These can be built as general models, or as local APC models for specific customer segments. The local APC models reveal special conditions for different customer groups. The corresponding APC identification problem is solved by a combination of regularization and fitting the decomposed environment time risk component to macroeconomic data, since the environmental risk is expected to have a strong relationship with macroeconomic conditions. Our approach is shown to be effective when tested on a large publicly available US mortgage data set. This novel framework can be adapted by practitioners in the financial industry to improve modelling, estimation and assessment of credit risk.

Understanding the strength of the associations between perceived risk and individuals’ behavioral intentions to protect their health is important for determining appropriate risk communication strategies in communities impacted by lead contamination. We conducted a survey within communities of northern Idaho, USA (n = 306) near a Superfund megasite with legacy mining contamination. We empirically test a theoretical model based on the Health Belief Model. Survey respondents had higher intentions to practice health protective behaviors when they perceived the risk of lead contamination as severe, recognized the benefits of health protective behaviors, and considered the risks of lead contamination. Women reported higher behavioral intentions than men, but age and mining affiliation did not have an association. Survey comments indicated that perceptions about the long-term environmental remediation in the region influenced risk perceptions. Understanding risk perceptions, behavioral intentions, and related factors can aid public health agencies in tailoring risk communication for increasing protective behaviors in mining-impacted communities internationally.

Herein, we examined the effects of weather parameters and individual clinicodemographic risk factors on hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence, severity on admission, and disability at discharge in a harsh desert climate. In a retrospective design we studied patients admitted to a stroke unit in Arab Emirates in 2016-2019. With a distributed lag nonlinear model we explored immediate and delayed effects of weather on stroke incidence. Supervised machine learning was used to build models predictive of scores in NIHSS and mRS scales. We assessed model performance by calculating ROC AUC, F1 scores, specificity, and sensitivity. HS risk increased after a significant change in any weather parameter. The risk was reduced below baseline after 1-week adjustment to environmental changes. Climate input from the previous 3 days yielded reliable classification models. Humidex was a better predictor of severity than air temperature, whereas body mass index, age, and time of day at stroke onset were the strongest clinical predictors. Weather parameters before admission were stronger predictors of disease severity than individual clinical factors. We addressed limitations of previous studies by analyzing a full set of climate parameters: ambient temperature, relative humidity, humidex, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Predictive models may help to optimize patient management and develop preventative strategies.

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.

In many countries, governments have implemented non-pharmaceutical techniques to limit COVID-19 transmission. Restricting human mobility is one of the most common interventions, including lockdown, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. However, due to the strong transmission ability of the virus variants, further rounds of interventions, including a strict lockdown, are not considered as effective as expected. The paper aims to understand how the lockdown policy and pandemics changed human mobility in the real scenario. Here we focus on understanding the mobility changes caused by compliance with restrictions and risk perceptions, using the mobility index from the Google report during three strict lockdown periods in Leeds, the largest city in the county of West Yorkshire, England from March 2020 to March 2021. The research proposed the time-varying z-scores and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simulate how local people dynamically process and perceive health risk based on multi-dimensional daily COVID-19 reports first. Further modelling highlights exponentially increasing policy non-compliance through the duration of lockdown, probably attributable to factors such as mental anxiety and economic pressures. Finally, the proposed nonlinear regression model examines the mobility changes caused by the population's dynamic risk perceptions and lockdown duration. The case study at Leeds fits data well and shows that the third lockdown policy took effect much slower than the first. At the same time, the negative impact of the epidemic on population mobility decayed 40% in the third lockdown period in contrast with the first lockdown. The risk perception estimation methods could reflect that the local population became increasingly accustomed to the COVID-19 situation, and local people rationally evaluated the risks of COVID in the third lockdown period. The results prove that simulated risk perceptions and policy decay could explain urban mobility behaviour during the mobility well during lockdown periods, which could be a reference for future decision-making processes.

Subway construction is often in a complex natural and human-machine operating environment, and that complicated setting leads to subway construction more prone to safety accidents, which can cause substantial casualties and monetary losses. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the safety risks of subway construction. The existing literature on the identification and assessment of subway construction safety risks(SCSR) is susceptible to the influence of subjective factors. Moreover, although existing studies have explored the interrelationships between different risks, these studies usually analyze the interrelationships of single risks, lack the study of risk chain transfer relationships, and fail to find out the key path of risk transfer. Therefore, this paper innovatively combines text mining, association rules and complex networks to deep mine subway construction safety incident reports and explore risk transfer process. Firstly, it uses text mining technology to identify subway construction safety risk; Then, association rules are introduced to explore the causal relationships among safety risk; Finally, the key safety risk and important transfer paths of subway construction safety accidents (SCSA) are obtained based on the complex network model. Research results show that (a) improper safety management, unimplemented safety subject responsibilities, violation of operation rules, non-perfect safety responsibilities system and insufficient safety education and training are the key safety risk in SCSA; (b) two shorter key risk transfer paths in the subway construction safety network can be obtained: insufficient safety education and training→lower safety awareness→violation of operation rules→safety accidents; insufficient safety checks or hidden trouble investigations→violation of operation rules→safety accidents; (c) in the process of risk transfer, the risk can be controlled by controlling the key nodes or cutting off the transfer path. The results of the study provide new ideas and methods for SCSR identification and influence element mining, which help safety managers propose accurate subway construction safety risk control measures.

A novel strategy is presented for reliable diagnosis and progression prediction of diseases with special attention to COVID-19 pandemy. A plan is presented for how the model can be implemented worldwide in healthcare and how novel treatments and targets can be detected. The idea is based on poikilosis, pervasive heterogeneity and variation at all levels, systems and mechanisms. Poikilosis in diseases can be taken account in pathogenicity model, which is based on distribution of three independent condition measures – extent, modulation and severity. Pathogenicity model is a population or cohort-based description of disease components. Evidence-based thresholds can be applied to the pathogenicity model and used for diagnosis as well as for early detection of patients in risk of developing the most severe forms of the disease. Analysis of patients with differential course of disease can help in detecting biomarkers of diagnostic and prognostic significance. A practical and feasible plan is presented how the concepts can be implemented in practice. Collaboration of many actors, including the World Health Organization and national health authorities, will be essential for success.

Some of the recent large-scale national projects in South Korea are delayed or suspended due to belated responses to risk occurring on site. Currently, the Far East District (FED) project is being implemented to relocate the US Army bases from Yongsan to Pyeongtaek. Because of lack of experience and understanding about the characteristics of such a project, the deadline of taking over to the US Army Korea has been missed. This study identifies problems of each participant in the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) of the US Army Korea with respect to construction project management and establishes a risk management strategy reflecting characteristics of FED project. To derive significant risk factors influencing YRP, various field data like weekly and monthly reports and other reports on construction condition are analyzed, and experts’ advices are collected and a survey is conducted. Mediators and latent variables are ultimately obtained. Furthermore, a structural equation model is used to both analyze and evaluate complex causal relations among many variables of YRP. The impact of risk factors on the schedule, quality and cost of the project is analyzed. In particular, the case of Site A is examined to see how the project is affected by those risk factors.

The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

Digital technologies have changed the way supply chain operations are structured. In this article, we conduct systematic syntheses of literature on the impact of new technologies on supply chains and the related cyber risks. A taxonomic/cladistic approach is used for the evaluations of progress in the area of supply chain integration in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, with a specific focus on the mitigation of cyber risks. An analytical framework is presented, based on a critical assessment with respect to issues related to new types of cyber risk and the integration of supply chains with new technologies. This paper identifies a dynamic and self-adapting supply chain system supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) and real-time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. The system is integrated into a cognition engine that enables predictive cyber risk analytics with real-time intelligence from IoT networks at the edge. This enhances capacities and assist in the creation of a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when AI/ML technologies are migrated to the periphery of IoT networks.

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state-of-the-art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Background: In Switzerland, Aedes albopictus is well established in Ticino, south of the Alps, where surveillance and control are implemented. The mosquito has also been observed in Swiss cities north of the Alps. Decision-making tools are urgently needed by the local authorities in order to optimize surveillance and control. Methods: A regularized logistic regression was used to link the long-term dataset of Ae. albopictus occurrence in Ticino with socio-environmental predictors. The probability of establishment of Ae. albopictus was extrapolated to Switzerland and more finely to the cities of Basel and Zurich. Results: The model performed well, with an AUC of 0.86. Ten so-cio-environmental predictors were selected as informative, including the road-based distance in minutes of travel by car from the nearest cell established in the previous year. The risk maps showed high suitability for Ae. albopictus establishment in the Central Plateau, the area of Basel and the lower Rhone Valley in the Canton of Valais. Conclusions: The areas identified as suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment are consistent with the actual current findings of tiger mosquito. Our approach provides a useful tool to prompt authorities’ intervention in the areas where there is higher risk of introduction and establishment of Ae. albopictus.

The city administration of China planned numerous metro projects and more metros can hardly avoid undercrossing a bridge. While metro shield construction when undercrossing a bridge (MSCUB) is frequently located in complicated natural and social context, which made the construction process more susceptible to safety accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to look into safety risk of MSCUB. The paper identified the safety risk factors during SSCUR by using literature review and experts’ evaluation, proposed a novel safety risk assessment model by integrating CFA and FER, and then selected a project case to test the validity of the suggested model. Research results show that (a) a safety risk factors list of MSCUB was identified, including 4 first-level safety risks and 37 second-level safety risk factors; (b) the proposed safety risk assessment model can be used to measure the risk values of the overall worksite safety risk, the first-level safety risks and the safety risk factors of MSCUB; (c) environment-type safety risk and personnel-type safety risk have higher risk values when shield construction undercrossing a bridge; (d) when compared to worker-type safety risk, manager-type safety risk is the higher risk value. The research can enrich the theoretic knowledge of MSCUB safety risk assessment and provide references to safety managers for conducting scientific and effective safety management on the construction site when subway undercrossing a river.

Plantation-based farmer cooperatives play an important role in promoting agricultural modernization and increasing farmer income, and the management of business risks of such cooperatives not only influences the development of the cooperatives themselves, but also concerns the interests of farmers. Based on the survey data of 226 sample cooperatives from Guizhou province, this article uses factor analysis to measure business risks of plantation-based farmer cooperatives and carries out empirical tests on influence factors of business risks through structural equation model. According to the research results, the ordering of business risks of plantation-based farmer cooperative based on their significance is as follows: market risk > policy risk > natural risk > technical risk > management risk. Influence factors including policy environment, economic environment, social service environment, technical environment, resource endowment of the cooperative and manager characteristics have significant positive influence on the cooperative, with economic environment and manager characteristics generating relatively stronger influence and social service environment generating relatively weaker influence. Through this research, several policy implications on driving high-quality development of plantation-based farmer cooperative are made, including specifying supportive policies of plantation-based farmer cooperative, improving economic environment of agricultural market, upgrading agricultural infrastructure, depending reform of land transfer system, and enhancing internal management of the cooperative.

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) enables enterprises to obtain profits from data but triggers data protection questions and new types of cyber risk. Cyber risk regulations for the IoT however do not exist. The IoT risk is not included in the cyber security assessment standards, hence, often not visible to cyber security experts. This is concerning, because companies integrating IoT devices and services need to perform a self-assessment of its IoT cyber security posture. The outcome of such self-assessment needs to define a current and target state, prior to creating a transformation roadmap outlining tasks to achieve the stated target state. In this article, a comparative empirical analysis is performed of multiple cyber risk assessment approaches, to define a high-level potential target state for company integrating IoT devices and/or services. Defining a high-level potential target state represent is followed by a high-level transformation roadmap, describing how company can achieve their target state, based on their current state. The transformation roadmap is used to adapt IoT risk impact assessment with a Goal-Oriented Approach and the Internet of Things Micro Mart model.

The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.

The famous Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) takes into account only business risk. In practice, companies use debt financing and operate at non–zero levels of leverage. This means that it is necessary to take into account the financial risk associated with the use of debt financing along with business one. The purpose of this paper is to simultaneously take into account the business and financial risk. A new approach to CAPM has been developed that takes into account both business and financial risk. We combine the theory of CAPM and the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory. The first is based on portfolio analysis and accounting for business risks in relation to the market (or industry). The second one (the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory) describes a specific company and takes into account the financial risks associated with the use of debt financing. The combination of these two different approaches makes it possible to take into account both types of risks: business and financial ones. We combine these two approaches analytically, while Hamada did it phenomenologically. Using the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory, it is shown that the Hamada’s model, first model, used for this purpose half a century ago, is incorrect. In addition to the renormalization of the beta–coefficient, obtained in the Hamada model, two additional terms are found: the renormalized risk–free return and the term dependent on the cost of debt kd. A critical analysis of the Hamada model was carried out. The vast majority of listing companies use debt financing and are levered, and the Hamada model is not applicable to them in contrast to a new approach applicable to leveraged companies. Implemented a new approach to specific companies. A comparison of the results of the new approach with the results of the conventional CAPM is shown. Two versions of CAPM (market or industry) are considered.

Mobile devices (MD) are used by mobile cloud computing (MCC) customers users because of their 11 portability and robust connectivity and the ability to house and operate third-party applications 12 (apps). However, the apps installed on a MD may pose data security risks to the MD owner and to 13 other MCC users, especially when the requested permissions include access to sensitive data (e.g., 14 user’s location and contacts). Calculating the risk score of an app or quantifying its potential 15 harmfulness based on user input or on data gathered while the app is actually running may not 16 provide reliable and sufficiently accurate results to avoid harmful consequences. This study 17 develops and evaluates a risk assessment framework for Android-based MDs that does not depend 18 on user input or on actual app behaviour. Rather, an app risk evaluator assigns a risk category to 19 reach resident app based on the app’s classification (benign or malicious) and the app’s risk score. 20 The app classifier (a trained machine learning model) considers the permissions and the intents 21 requested by the app. The apps risk score is calculated by a probabilistic function based on the 22 app’s use of a set of selected dangerous permissions. The results from the testing of an instance of 23 the framework on a MD with real-life resident apps indicated that the proposed security solution 24 was effective and feasible.

To proactively manage information security, enterprises often employ information security risk assessment techniques. Asset value - which is used to calculate the financial impact of possible threats - is one of the key parameters of information security risk. However, assets in a system are rarely independent, and their values are typically interdependent. Asset owners and IT teams may hold different views as regards these values, and there is thus the need to reduce subjectivity in a qualitative risk assessment. The research entails the development of a conceptual framework derived from the literature to minimize subjectivity, and the design of a system based on those concepts. The study uses the Unified Modeling Language as a design tool and puts forward an object-oriented model for defining asset values, in which the relationships between assets, vulnerabilities and related threats are identified. A “segregation of duties” approach is integrated into the risk management system to mitigate against subjectivity and better determine asset values. Survey responses from 16 practitioners working in the private and public sectors confirm the validity of the approach, but suggest it may be more workable in larger organisations where resources allow dedicated risk professionals to operate.

Coal combustion in thermal power plants releases ash. Ash is reported to cause different adverse health hazards in humans and other organisms. Owing to the presence of radionuclides, it is also considered as a potential radiation hazard. In this study, based on the surface radiation measurements and relevant ancillary data, expected radiation risk zones were identified with regard to the human population residing near the Thermal Power Plant. With population density as the risk determining criteria, about 20% of the study area was at ‘High’ risk and another 20% of the study area was at ‘Low’ risk zone. The remaining 60% was under medium risk zone. Based on the findings remedial measures which may be adopted have been suggested.

At least one ultrasound is recommended to predict fetal growth restriction and low birthweight earlier in pregnancy. However, in low-income countries imaging equipment and trained manpower are scarce. Hence, we developed and validated a model and risk score to predict low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy, for use in resource limited settings. We conducted a prospective cohort study among 379 pregnant women in South Ethiopia. A step-wise multivariable analysis was done to develop the prediction model. To improve clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify pregnant women at high- or low-risk of low birthweight. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and calibration plot. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities. Age at pregnancy, underweight, anemia, height, gravidity, and presence of comorbidity remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 0.88). The decision curve analysis shows the model provides a higher net benefit across ranges of threshold probabilities. In general, this study showed the possibility of predicting low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. The model could help to identify those at higher risk of having a low birthweight baby. This feasible prediction model would offer an opportunity to reduce obstetric-related complications and thus improving the overall maternal and child healthcare in low- and middle-income countries.

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban areas has led to changes in land use, a reduction in pervious surfaces, and a disturbance in the balance between surface waters and groundwater. These urban changes, combined with inadequate drainage systems and misdirection of runoff, have resulted in severe urban floods, causing numerous fatalities and damage to urban areas. As a result, investigating the effects of flood occurrences and determining proper mitigation measures to reduce flood damage is essential. This paper aims to establish a novel economic-hydrologic model to evaluate the efficacy of Low-impact Development (LID) measures in urban Bronx River catchment, NYC. The model examines reduced peak discharge of flood and imposed damage. Initially, the EPA’s SWMM is used to simulate urban flooding based on recent extreme events. LID scenarios are then implemented, including individual and combined scenarios, to mitigate the adverse impacts of flood occurrences of high to low frequency. By means of the HEC-GeoRAS tool, highly detailed flood inundation maps are generated and seamlessly incorporated into the flood damage estimation model, namely HAZUS, to obtain estimates of the potential damage caused by floods. Using the reduced monetary damages and the implementation cost of LID measures, the benefit-to-cost (BC) ratio is then calculated. Findings indicated that the combined LID scenario is the most effective approach in peak flow reduction. Moreover, Permeable pavement outperforms infiltration trench, bio retention cell, and rain barrel in terms of benefit-to-cost ratio, with rain barrel showing the lowest ratio. The proposed evaluation system for LID measures, with a focus on flood damage reduction as a key benefit, provides valuable insights for identifying optimal scenarios and facilitating informed decision-making.

The Estimation of systemic risk in India is still in its infancy stage. There are several methods which are available but none of the methods are fully compatible to forecast the systemic risk since under different circumstances the factors responsible for the risk differs. In this paper the systemic risk estimation in India being carried out based on spread in daily stock market price(Difference between the bid and ask price of a share) of the top 100 firms in India according to market capitalization for the period of July2007 to March 2016. The results were compared with the Financial Stability Report published by Reserve Bank Of India for the period of March 2010 to June 2016.The results clearly indicates that there exits relationship between market illiquidity represented by spread and risks associated with the Financial System. In most of the cases the Z score (deviation from the mean/Standard Deviation) of the spread has become negative which provides the spread which is farther from the mean, also a good indicator of volatility in market and risk to financial system. It is also seen that the Systemic Risk Survey conducted by Reserve Bank of India which started during October 2011 has supported the results.

In recent years, the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in accounting has grown in many domains, including auditing. AI permits auditors to evaluate large data sets and rapidly identify discrepancies and sequences in audit. This means auditors can review all of a client's transactions via a low time and effort. This entails auditing firms investing heavily in technological infrastructure as well as training their human resources to use cutting-edge AI technologies. Thus, this research sought to investigate the impact of the use of AI techniques by Jordanian external auditors in fraud risk assessment, the moderating effect of auditor size. The descriptive analytical method was used by distributing 280 questionnaires electronically to auditors employed in auditing firms operating in Jordan, The result reveals that AI techniques are extremely beneficial in fraud risk assessment at all levels, and the relationship between the use of AI techniques and the assessment of fraud risk has improved as auditor size has increased.

Background: Atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor (AT/RT) is an uncommon and aggressive pediatric central nervous system neoplasm. However, a universal clinical consensus or reliable prognostic evaluation system for this malignancy is lacking. Our study aimed to develop a risk model based on comprehensive clinical data to assist in clinical decision-making. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study by examining data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) repository, spanning 2000 to 2019. The external validation cohort was sourced from the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Chongqing Medical University, China. To discern independent factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), we applied Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Random Forest (RF) regression analyses. Based on these factors, we structured nomogram survival predictions and initiated a dynamic online risk-evaluation system. To contrast survival outcomes among diverse treatments, we used propensity score matching (PSM) methodology. Molecular data with the most common mutations in AT/RT were extracted from the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC) database. Results: The annual incidence of AT/RT showed an increasing trend (APC, 2.86%; 95% CI:0.75-5.01). Our prognostic study included 316 SEER database participants and 27 external validation patients. The entire group had a median OS of 18 months (range 11.5 to 24 months) and median CSS of 21 months (range 11.7 to 29.2). Evaluations involving C-statistics, DCA, and ROC analysis underscored the distinctive capabilities of our prediction model. An analysis via PSM highlighted that individuals undergoing triple therapy (integrating surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy) had discernibly enhanced OS and CSS. The most common mutations of AT/RT identified in the COSMIC database were SMARCB1, BRAF, SMARCA4, NF2, and NRAS. Conclusions: In this study, we devised a predictive model that effectively gauges the prognosis of AT/RT and briefly analyzed its genomic features, which might offer a valuable tool to address existing clinical challenges.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models (PBPK) are mechanistical tools generally employed in the pharmaceutical industry and environmental health risk assessment. These models are recognised by regulatory authorities for predicting organ concentration-time profile, pharmacokinetic and daily intake dose of xenobiotics. Extension of PBPK models to capture sensitive populations like pediatric, geriatric, pregnant females, fetus etc. and diseased population like renal impairment, liver cirrhosis etc. is a must. However, the current modelling practice and existing models are not mature enough to confidently predict the risk in these populations. A multidisciplinary collaboration between clinicians, experimental and modeler scientist is vital to improve the physiology, and calculation of biochemical parameters for integrating the knowledge and refining existing PBPK models. Specific PBPK covering compartments like cerebrospinal fluid, and hippocampus are required to gain mechanistic understanding about xenobiotic disposition in these sub-parts. The PBPK model assists in building quantitative adverse outcome pathways (qAOPs) for several endpoints like developmental neurotoxicity (DNT), hepatotoxicity and cardiotoxicity. Machine learning algorithms can predict physicochemical parameters required to develop in-silico models where experimental data is unavailable. Integrating machine learning with PBPK carries the potential to revolutionize the field of drug discovery and development and environmental risk. Overall, this review tried to summarize the recent developments in the in-silico models, building qAOPs, use of machine learning for improving existing models along with a regulatory perspective. This review can act as a guide for toxicologists who wish to build their careers in kinetic modeling.

Red cabbage (RC), a cruciferous vegetable rich in various bioactive substances, can significantly reduce the risk factors of several chronic metabolic diseases, but its mechanism remains clear. Given that the relationship between diet, gut microbiota and health, a diet -induced mice obesity model was used to elucidate the effects of RC on gut microbial composition and interactions in mice. After 24-hour dietary intervention, high-fat (HF) diet and intake of RC led to increased Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes (F/B) ratios in the feces of mice. RC also reduced the relative abundance of Bifidobacteria, Lactobacillus and Akkermansia muciniphila in mice fed low fat (LF) diet. After 8-weeks dietary intervention, RC significantly changed the structure and the ecological network of gut microbial community. Particularly, RC inhibited an HF-diet induced increase of AF12 in mice, and this genus was positively correlated with body weight, low-density lipoprotein level and fecal bile acid of mice. Unclassified Clostridiales, specifically increased by RC consumption, was also found to negatively correlate with hepatic free cholesterol levels in mice. Overall, our results demonstrated that RC modulation of gut microbial composition and interactions is associated with the attenuation of HF diet-induced body weight gain and altered cholesterol metabolism of mice.

In order to establish a new discipline specializing in accident science from the perspective of safety science. Under the guidance of the current research theories and methods of safety science, combined with the research paradigm of humanities and social medicine, this paper puts forward new viewpoints, new theories and new models about accident research. First of all, through literature retrieval, this paper analyzes the relevant research results of accidents at home and abroad, and expounds the existing problems and the basic trend of accident science research. Secondly, it puts forward eight kinds of attribute relations of the accident, and makes clear the characteristics and connotation of the accident. In the study of accident types, a hierarchical classification model based on accident cognition is created for the first time. It also points out the logical relevance of five levels of accident science research and the realistic relevance of three levels. At the same time, according to the thought of science of science, this paper puts forward a new definition of safety under the thinking of accident science and other basic concepts related to safety science, and explains the connotation. In addition, it creates and constructs the basic concept of accident science, establishes the conceptual model of accident science, and points out the “3-4-5” model of accident science research and its connotation. Thirdly, draw lessons from the interdisciplinary paradigm to study the relevant theoretical basis and discipline classification relationship of accident science, and construct the tree of accident science. Finally, the research contents of three main aspects of accident science are summarized. The results show that the research results in this paper not only play a fundamental role in the basic construction of accident science, but also further enrich and perfect the discipline system of safety science, which has a certain theoretical significance.

Sudden water pollution accident is a tough environmental challenge to solve due to its uncertainty, unpredictability and destructiveness. Therein, the dangerous goods transportation accidents on the cross-tributary bridges are increasing worldwide with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, posing threats to the water ecological environment and human health. To prevent and control the risk, this study evaluated the risk of sudden water pollution accidents associated with dangerous goods transportation on the cross-tributary bridges by using the expert judgment fuzzy language method and Bayesian network model. Baiyangdian lake as the largest freshwater shallow lake in North China was chosen as a study case. Different accident scenarios were simulated to put forward risk prevention and control measures. The results showed that the primary risk factors were divided into five categories: personnel factors, vehicle factors, tank factors, weather factors, and road environment factors. The probability of dangerous goods transportation accidents was a possible event (P=0.115), with a high risk level. Furthermore, the Baiyangdian lake would suffer from serious environmental pollution and water quality degradation without prevention and control measures by simulating the oil leakage accident. Therefore, emergency prevention and control measures are expected to be formulated and implemented before and after the occurrence of the sudden water pollution accidents. This study provides useful insights into risk prevention and control strategies for sudden water pollution accidents, and the framework can be made applicable to other rivers facing similar risk challenges worldwide.

It was found that patients with comorbidities of obesity and diabetes have a high risk of breast cancer occurrence and face worse breast cancer outcomes. Though several reports showed the reinforced link between obesity, diabetes, and prediabetes with breast cancer, the underlying molecular mechanism is still unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the underlying molecular link between increased risks of breast cancer due to coincident diabetes or obesity using a spontaneous obese rat model with impaired glucose tolerance (WNIN/GR-Ob rat). A single dose of solubilized DMBA suspension (40 mg/kg body weight) was orally administered to the animals at the age of 60 days to induce breast tumors. The tumor incidence, latency period, tumor frequency, and tumor volume were measured. Histology, immunohistochemistry, and immunoblotting were performed to evaluate the tumor morphology and expression levels of signal molecules. It was observed that the onset of breast tumor and latency period per tumor development were early in GR-Ob rats compared to respective lean rats. It was found that 62% of obese rats were bearing tumors, and in comparison, only 21% of the lean animals developed breast tumors. Overexpression of ER, PR, Ki67, and p53 markers was observed in tumor tissues of obese rats in comparison with lean rats. The levels of the hallmarks of cell proliferation and angiogenesis involved in IGF-1/PI3K/Akt/GSK3β/β-catenin signaling pathway molecules were upregulated in obese rat breast tumors compared to lean rats. Furthermore, obesity with prediabetes is associated with changes in IGF-1 signaling and acts on PI3K/Akt/GSK3β/β-catenin signaling, which results in quick cell proliferation and development of breast tumors in obese rats than the lean rats. These results indicate that the onset of the tumor and its development was faster in a spontaneous obese rat model with impaired glucose tolerance than their lean counterparts, with a higher percentage of tumor incidence.

Digital technologies have changed the way supply chain operations are structured. In this article, we conduct systematic syntheses of literature on the impact of new technologies on supply chains and the related cyber risks. A taxonomic/cladistic approach is used for the evaluations of progress in the area of supply chain integration in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, with a specific focus on the mitigation of cyber risks. An analytical framework is presented, based on a critical assessment with respect to issues related to new types of cyber risk and the integration of supply chains with new technologies. This paper identifies a dynamic and self-adapting supply chain system supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) and real-time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. The system is integrated into a cognition engine that enables predictive cyber risk analytics with real-time intelligence from IoT networks at the edge. This enhances capacities and assist in the creation of a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when AI/ML technologies are migrated to the periphery of IoT networks.

This paper presents a limited scope dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (D-PRA) on the survivability of commercial of the shelf (COTS) drones tasked with surveilling areas with varying radiation levels after a nuclear accident. The D-PRA is based on a discrete-dynamic event tree (D-DET) approach, which couples with the OpenEPL error propagation framework to model sequences leading to Loss of Mission (LOM) scenarios due to component failures in the drone’s navigation system. Radiation effects are simulated by calculating the total ionizing dose (TID) against the permissible limit per component, and errors are propagated within the electronic hardware and software blocks to quantify navigation system availability per radiation zone. The proposed methods are integrated into the traditional event tree/fault tree approach and the most vulnerable components are radiation-hardened (RAD-HARD) to the extent specified by a predefined mission success criterion. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in performing trade studies for incorporating COTS components into RAD-HARD drone designs.

Air pollution includes particle-bound Polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) which eventually reach the placenta triggering adverse perinatal outcomes by long-term exposure. Late-ly, air pollution has increased over the Metropolitan Area of Medellin-Colombia (MAMC) but its effects on pregnancy are still unknown. In this research, we made a real-time analysis of airborne total PAHs using a photoelectric sensor for residential places influenced by industrial and traffic sources contrasting southern and northern MAMC during the second peak of the bimodal ten-dency for PM2.5 emissions in this region. Additionally, we analyzed individual PAHs by GC/MS coupled to pressurized hot water extraction methodology. Data was applied in an Inhalation In-take Model to assess pregnancy exposure. The average concentration of PAHs over southern MAMC was three times higher than over northern MAMC where the abortion rate has been 1.4 times higher presented in database. Previous research found that PAHs act as an Endo-crine-Disrupting Chemical (EDC) during pregnancy and even heavy congeners could reside in umbilical cord blood. Finally, the annual series of abortion rates in the MAMC showed a signifi-cant correlation with the annual average levels of PM2.5 which are associate to PAHs. Although this significant correlation does not imply causality, our results suggest an important connection between both variables. This latter finding opens a gap in deeply understanding how regions with high PAHs-convergence influences abortion rates in MAMC.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and late-onset Alzheimer’s disease-dementia (LOAD) are increasing in global prevalence and current predictions indicate they will only increase over the coming decades. These increases may be a result of the concurrent increases of obesity and aging. T2DM is associated with cognitive impairments associated with metabolic factors and increases the cellular vulnerability to develop the age-related increased risk of LOAD. This review addresses possible mechanisms due to obesity, aging, multiple intersections between T2DM and LOAD and mechanisms for the continuum of progression. Multiple ultrastructural images in female diabetic db/db models are utilized to demonstrate marked cellular remodeling changes of mural and glia cells and provide for the discussion of functional changes in T2DM. Throughout this review multiple endeavors to demonstrate how T2DM increases the vulnerability of the brain’s neurovascular unit (NVU), neuroglia and neurons are presented. Five major intersecting links are considered: i. aging (chronic age-related diseases); ii. metabolic (hyperglycemia - advanced glycation end-products and its receptor (AGE/RAGE) interactions and hyperinsulinemia – insulin resistance (a linking linchpin); iii. oxidative stress (reactive oxygen-nitrogen species); iv. inflammation (peripheral macrophage and central brain microglia); v. vascular (macrovascular accelerated atherosclerosis - vascular stiffening and microvascular NVU/neuroglial remodeling) with resulting impaired cerebral blood flow.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

This paper describes the E-Sense Artificial Intelligence system. It comprises of a memory model with 2 levels of information and then a more neural layer above that. The lower memory level stores source data in a Markov (n-gram) structure that is unweighted. Then a middle ontology level is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information. Each phase re-structures from an ensemble to a tree, where the information transposition may be from horizontal set-based sequences into more vertical, typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be stored in the calling module. The success of the ontology typing is open to question, but results produced answers based more on use and context. The third level is more functional, where each function can represent a subset of the base data and learn how to transpose across it. The functional structures are shown to be quite orthogonal, or separate and are made from nodes with a progressive type of capability, including unordered to ordered. Comparisons with the columnar structure of the neural cortex can be made and the idea of ordinal learning, or just learning relative positions, is introduced. While this is still a work in progress, it offers a different architecture to the current favourites and may be able to give different views of the data from what they can provide.

Machine unlearning is a critical process designed to allow machine learning models to forget or remove specific data upon request, particularly for privacy protection. While the primary objective of unlearning is to safeguard sensitive information, it introduces substantial privacy and security risks. This paper explores the two major categories of threats to machine unlearning: privacy attacks and security attacks. Privacy attacks, such as membership inference and model inversion, exploit residual information to infer or reconstruct sensitive data that should have been erased. Security attacks, particularly specific data poisoning, involve the injection of malicious data into the training process, which may leave lingering effects even after the unlearning process. In this paper, we provide an in-depth examination of these threats and propose several defense mechanisms. Differential privacy, adversarial training, and query limitations are highlighted as key defenses against privacy attacks, while data validation, adversarial examples, and post-unlearning audits are critical in mitigating security risks. Additionally, we discuss emerging methodologies like data provenance tracking and fine-tuning as crucial for ensuring unlearning processes are thorough and effective. Through these analyses, we aim to provide a comprehensive framework for strengthening the security and privacy of machine unlearning systems, enabling their broader adoption across industries such as healthcare, finance, and AI-driven technologies.

In this paper, we integrate the Finite Element Method (FEM) with orthogonal polynomial approximation in high-dimensional spaces to innovatively model the Moon’s surface gravity anomaly. Our aim is to approximate solutions to Laplace’s classical differential equations of gravity, employing classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions. Using classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions, the least-squares approximation was used to approximate discrete samples of the approximation function. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. The first application of this project is to substitute the globally-valid classical spherical harmonic series of approximations with locally-valid series of orthogonal polynomial approximations (i.e. using the FEM approach). With an error tolerance set at 10−9ms−2, we use this method to adapt the gravity model radially upwards from the lunar surface. The results showcase a need for a higher degree of approximation on and near the lunar surface, with the necessity decreasing as the radius increases. Notably, this method achieves a computational speedup of five orders of magnitude when applying the method to radial adaptation. More intrinsically, our second application involves using the methodology as an effective tool in solving boundary value problems. Specifically, we implement this approach to solve classical differential equations involved with high precision, long-term orbit propagation. This application provides a four-order of magnitude speedup in computational time while maintaining an error within the 10−10ms−2 error range for various orbit propagation tests. Alongside the advancements in orthogonal approximation theory, the FEM enables revolutionary speedups in orbit propagation without compromising accuracy.

This study systematically addresses the challenge of accurately modeling memristors, focusing on four distinct types doped with tungsten, tin, chromium, and carbon, fabricated by Known Inc. A comprehensive characterization was performed by subjecting the devices to sinusoidal excitations with varying frequencies and amplitudes, followed by data averaging and high-frequency filtering. The resulting measurements were fitted using three prominent memristor models: VTEAM, MMS, and Yakopcic, with additional bespoke modifications assessed. These models, typically formulated as coupled algebraic-differential equations integrating electrical quantities (voltage and current) with internal state variables governing device dynamics, were optimized using two robust approaches: (1) interior-point optimization with gradient-based search, and (2) Nelder-Mead gradient-free optimization, both with box constraints applied. A thorough comparison and discussion of the optimized model parameters ensued, accompanied by an examination of sensitivity to diverse frequency and amplitude ranges. The findings inform conclusions and provide a foundation for future refinements, underscoring the importance of multi-model evaluation and advanced optimization strategies in precise memristor modeling. The presented methodology offers a valuable framework for elucidating optimal modeling paradigms tailored to specific memristor architectures and operating regimes, ultimately enhancing their integration in emerging neuromorphic and computational applications.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Hydroelectric power is one of the most essential renewable energy sources in the world. In addition to generating electricity, hydropower offers other benefits such as flood control, irrigation assistance, and clean drinking water. In this study, we examine the evolution of hydropower in the context of energy transition with a forecasting analysis. We analyze time series data of hydropower generation from 1965 to 2023 and apply Innovation Diffusion Models as well as other models such as Prophet and ARIMA for comparison. The models are evaluated for different geographical regions, namely the North, South, and Central American countries, the European countries, and the Middle East with Asian countries, to determine their effectiveness in predicting trends in hydropower generation. The models' accuracy is assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Through this analysis, we find that, on average, the GGM model outperforms the Prophet and ARIMA models, and is more accurate than the Bass Model. This analysis underscores the critical role of precise forecasting in energy planning and suggests further research to validate these results and explore other factors influencing the development of hydroelectric generation.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

Deep-learning-based convection schemes receive wide attention due to its impressive im-provement on precipitation distribution and tropical convections of earth system simulation. But they cannot represent the stochasticity of moist physics, which will degrade the simulation of large-scale circulations, climate mean, and variability. To solve this problem, a stochastic pa-rameterization scheme based on probabilistic diffusion model named DIFF-MP is developed. The cloud-resolving data from GRIST model is coarse-grained into resolved-scale variables and sub-grid contributions due to moist physics to form the training data. DIFF-MP’s performance is compared against generative adversarial network and variational autoencoder. Results show that DIFF-MP is consistently better than the other two models on prediction error, coverage ratio, and spread-skill correlation. The standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of subgrid contributions generated by DIFF-MP is also closer to the testing data than the others. Interpretability experiment shows that DIFF-MP’s parameterization of moist physics is physically reasonable.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

Nowadays, network simulators are very useful to model a communications system. In this technical note we will focus in the creation of a new error model in NS-3 network simulator. This note describes the main steps to create or modify an Wi-Fi error model in this network simulator. In our case, we have created a new error model to included the approach of [1] to compute PER (Packet Error Rate) for vehicular environments.

Aiming at the defects of low precision and time cumulative error, an external wireless signal weighted centroid localization algorithm aided inertial positioning method is designed in this paper. According to the signal strength of each anchor node received at the test point, the distance between the anchor node and the anchor node is obtained by using the attenuation model of the wireless signal. Three anchor nodes are used to measure the distance between the anchor node and the measured point. We can obtain the area to be measured according to the actual situation, the position of the measured point is obtained by the weighted centroid localization algorithm and a combined model of wireless signal aided inertial navigation system is established. The simulation results show that the method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and restrain the divergence of the longitude error and latitude error.

A new two-dimensional nanomaterial – Titanium Carbide MXene (Ti₃C₂-MXene) – was reported in 2011. In this work, the microscale models of Ti₃C₂-MXene nanomaterial are considered with polymer matrix. The nanocomposites are modeled using nacre-mimetic brick-and-mortar assembly configurations due to enhanced mechanical properties and interlocking mechanism between the Ti₃C₂-MXene (brick) and polymer matrices (mortar). The polymer matrix material (Epoxy-resin) is modeled with elastic and viscoelastic behavior (Kelvin-Voigt Model). The Finite Element Method is used for numerical analysis of the microscale models with the multi-point constraint method to include Ti₃C₂-MXene fillers in the polymer matrix. Ti₃C₂-MXenes are considered as thick plate elements with transverse shear effects. The response of elastic and viscoelastic models of polymer matrix are studied. Finally, a tensile and compressive load is applied at the microscale and the effective load transfer due to nacre-mimetic configuration is discussed. This paper provides nacre-mimetic models to pre-design the nanocomposite for optimal performance with damage resistance and enhanced strength.

For over a decade, endoscopic hemostatic powders have been used to manage upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Various preclinical benchtop and animal models have been developed to evaluate these devices. Multiple companies have released hemostatic powders to market, assessing their safety and efficacy using an established porcine gastric vessel bleed model. This model simulates an aggressive arterial bleed, allowing prototypes to be tested under challenging conditions. It requires a surgeon to insert an artery segment into the gastric lumen and puncture it to produce a bleed. In our study, we tested a control group not included in prior research. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between intragastric pressure and bleed severity by injecting gas used to deliver hemostatic powder to the bleed site, without administering hemostatic powder. Our results indicate that elevated intragastric pressures alone can cause bleed cessation. Additional findings suggest that other factors in the model can lead to false positive hemostasis. This study highlights flaws in the porcine gastric vessel bleed model and underscores the need to develop more robust models for testing hemostatic devices, as no valid endoscopic bleed model currently exists. These experiments stress the importance of vetting preclinical models before acquiring efficacy data.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

Constructing the fundamental principles of intelligence and consciousness has become a significant scientific challenge. The literature indicates that current theories of intelligence and consciousness have yet to provide comprehensive answers regarding the unified structure, objectives, and significance of the entities generating intelligence and consciousness, the driving forces, the relationship between intelligence and consciousness, and the distinctions between different types of consciousness.This study extends von Neumann architecture to establish Standard Agent Model as an axiom, proposing that any system (agent) possesses five essential capabilities: Information input, output, storage, creation, and control over the use of these capabilities. By taking the maximum and minimum values for each of these five capabilities, two extreme states and two types of intelligence forces of the agent are derived. Inspired by the principles of flight, the above elements are combined to establish the “Flight Model (FM)” of intelligence and consciousness. Intelligence is defined as the agent’s ability to utilize the five capabilities comprehensively to evolve between the two extreme states under the influence of intelligence forces. Consciousness is defined as the agent’s ability to control the use of intelligence under the influence of the two types of intelligence forces. Based on the relationship between control and being controlled, consciousness is further subdivided into self-consciousness, other-consciousness, mix consciousness, and unconsciousness.This study evaluates the intelligence levels and self-awareness of various agents based on the FM theoretical framework through designed experiments. The results show that current artificial intelligence systems exhibit intelligence close to adult human levels but have not yet demonstrated self-consciousness. This study constructs a theoretical system of intelligence and consciousness, providing a theoretical basis for determining the timeline for achieving AGI and addressing AI self-consciousness issues.

EIMIs face the challenge of adapting to the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal to achieve carbon neutrality. This change is being driven by consumer interest in low-carbon products, regulatory requirements from climate agreements and investors prioritizing sustainability. This pressure is pushing companies to go beyond short-term financial gains and integrate sustainability into their business. The growing awareness of the environmental impact of business models (BM) has fueled the development of Sustainable Business Models (SBMs). This study aims to link the discussion on the role of SBMs in the drivers of decarbonization, to improve the understanding of how the drivers can be integrated and enable new BMs for EIMIs. Based on a structured literature review, semi-structured interviews were conducted in the EIMIs. The study identifies BM-components that are influenced by these drivers and require sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). The results show that decarbonization drivers have a significant impact on all BM components. Experts emphasize the importance of collaborative approaches and cooperation throughout the value chain. This research elaborates on the importance of systematic analysis to understand how companies can effectively manage decarbonization drivers and suggests in-depth exploration within BM-research to uncover potential SBM design options.

River flood routing computes changes in shape of a flood wave over time as it travels downstream along a river. Conventional flood routing models, especially hydrodynamic models require high quality and quantity of input data such as measured hydrologic time series, geometric data, hydraulic structures and hydrological parameters. Unlike physically based models, machine learning algorithms, which are data driven models, do not require much knowledge about underlying physical processes and can identify complex nonlinearity between inputs and outputs. Due to the higher performance, less complexity, and low computation cost, novel machine learning methods as a single application or hybrid application were introduced by researchers to achieve more accurate and efficient flood routing. This paper reviews the recent application of machine learning methods in river flood routing.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

In this work, we study the dynamical behaviors of the electromagnetic fields and material responses in the hyperbolic metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged metallic and dielectric layers. The thickness of each unit cell is assumed to be much smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves, so the effective medium concept can be applied. When electromagnetic (EM) fields are present, the responses of the medium in the directions parallel to and perpendicular to the layers are like that of Drude and Lorentz media, respectively. We derive the energy density of the EM fields and the power loss in the effective medium based on Poynting theorem and the dynamical equations of the polarization field. We also show that the Lagrangian density of the system can be constructed. The Euler-Lagrangian equations yield the correct dynamical equations of the electromagnetic fields and the polarization field in the medium. The canonical momentum conjugates to every dynamical field can be derived from the Lagrangian density via differentiation or variation with respect to that field. We apply Legendre transformation to this system, and find that the resultant Hamitonian density is identical to the energy density, up to an irrelevant divergence term.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

In this paper we will present a simplified approach for extracting the ground level – a digital terrain model (DTM) – from the surface provided in a digital surface model (DSM). Most existing algorithms try to find the ground values in a digital surface model. Our approach works the opposite direction by detecting probable above ground areas. The main advantage of our approach is the possibility to use it with incomplete DSMs containing much no data values which can be e.g. occlusions in the calculated DSM. A smoothing or filling of such original derived DSMs will destroy much information which is very useful for deriving a ground surface from the DSM. Since the presented approach needs steep edges to detect potential high objects it will fail on smoothed and filled DSMs. After presenting the algorithm it will be applied to a test area in Salzburg and compared to a terrain model freely available from the Austrian government.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

This paper reviews recent works related to applications of reinforcement learning in power system optimal control problems. Based on an extensive analysis of works in the recent literature, we attempt to better understand what is the gap between reinforcement learning methods that rely on complete or incomplete information about the model dynamics, and data-driven reinforcement learning approaches. More specifically we ask how such models change based on the application or the algorithm, what are the currently open theoretical and numerical challenges in each of the leading applications, and which reinforcement-based control strategies will rise in the following years. The reviewed research works are divided to ``model-based'' methods and ``model-free'' methods, in order to highlight the current developments and trends within each of these two groups. The optimal control problems reviewed are energy markets, grid stability and control, energy management in buildings, electrical vehicles and energy storage.

The emphasis in the automotive industry towards sustainable mobility has led to a significant interest in hybrid-electric propulsion systems with high energy density batteries. Addressing the needs of this strategy, the battery market is exploring new technologies to improve the safety and lifespan of electric vehicles. To this end, there is a focus on the all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology for its cycle capabilities. Filling the current void in the literature pertaining to accurate ageing models for ASSBs, in this work, we present an enhanced version of the numerical ageing model, originally developed for liquid electrolyte based batteries, to forecast the development of the solid electrolyte interface layer that is the major cause of battery capacity fading. The model has been tested on prototype batteries and reveals an accuracy of 99%. The capacity fade in ASSBs has been investigated under different conditions, and the enhanced ageing model has been validated using experimental data from these batteries. The findings suggest that there is potential for solid-state batteries to be commercialized, although significant work is needed to match the manufacturing level of lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes.

In order to study the adsorption process and adsorption characteristics of shale oil at the macro scale, the isothermal adsorption experiments of illite and kerogen on heptadecane (oil phase) solution were carried out by infrared spectrophotometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The reaction mechanism of alkane solution concentration and temperature in the adsorption process was investigated. The adsorption characteristics of heptadecane on the surface and pores of illite and kerogen were elucidated by adsorption isotherm model and adsorption thermodynamic model. The results show that: The concentration of alkane solution contributes to the adsorption of illite and kerogen. As the concentration of the solution continues to increase, the adsorption rate gradually slows down. However, the temperature hardly affects the adsorption rate. At 25℃, 50℃ and 60℃, the adsorption process of illite on alkane solution is more consistent with Langmuir model and Freundlich model, respectively. The difference is that Langmuir model is suitable for describing the whole adsorption process of kerogen on alkane solution. 3) The adsorption process of illite and kerogen to heptadecane solution is an endothermic reaction. Heating helps to accelerate the migration rate of alkanes, which is conducive to the adsorption reaction. The research results clarify the adsorption characteristics of shale oil heavy components from the macro level, and fill the research gap in the application of solid-liquid isothermal adsorption physical experiments to the adsorption and occurrence of shale oil.

Colleges and universities play a crucial role in fostering innovation, making it essential to explore effective strategies for promoting innovation at the institutional policy level. This paper focuses on the establishment of intellectual property (IP) model cities as a starting point and conducts an empirical analysis using innovation data from 234 cities and 942 colleges and universities between 2007 and 2017. By constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model, this study reveals that the establishment of IP model cities effectively fosters innovation in colleges and universities. Further analysis demonstrates that this promotion effect is particularly significant in the western region, key cities, key colleges and universities, as well as in the fields of invention and utility model patents. These conclusions withstand a series of robustness tests, confirming their validity. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, it is found that the national IP pilot city policy has a substantial impact on university innovation by promoting research and development (R&D) investment and strengthening innovation cooperation. The insights provided by this study offer valuable policy recommendations for leveraging the innovation potential of the IP model city policy, thereby driving economic transformation, upgrading, and fostering innovation development in China.

While considering the sensitivity over the parameter optimization, it is essential to determine which parameters have the most significant implications on model performance. This study focuses on the baseflow recession constant as one of the independent basin parameters to forecast low flows, perform hydrograph analysis, and calibrate rainfall-runoff models for significant improvement. Prior studies examined that the optimization of data adjustment parameters can improve the hydrological model performance and determine the minimum acceptable data length for data scarce regions using the Xinanjaing model. However, it is essential to pay special attention to the sensitivity of the recession constant, which can also impact the model performance during the data scarcity. Therefore, this study extends the research to comprehend the recession constant sensitivity over data adjustment parameters in the shorter datasets leading to more reliable parameter estimation. In terms of that, this study explores how recession constant affects hydrological parameter estimation on annual scale while keeping data adjustment parameters constant in continuous hydrological modeling, employing the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model as a case study. This study considered two approaches of recession constant (cg); (i) assessing the relationship between cg and the data adjustment parameter (Cep), for the 28-year datasets, (ii) investigating the significant impacts of the sensitivity of cg over Cep in shorter datasets which can affect the estimation of the acceptable minimum data length in the data scarce basins. The study underscores the importance of the recession constant sensitivity for reliable continuous hydrological model predictions, especially in data-scared areas. The study’s outcomes enhance the understanding of the importance of parameter sensitivity and its relationship in conceptual hydrological modeling during the data limitations.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

In this paper, a novel strategy is adopted in a degradation model to affect the implied lifetime distribution. The multiplicative degradation model is utilized as a postulate in the model. It will be established that the implied lifetime distribution forms a classical mixture model. In this mixture model, time-to-failure is lying with some probabilities between two first passage times of the degradation process to reach two specified levels. Stochastic comparisons in the model under a change in the probabilities are studied. Several examples are provided to highlight the applicability of the results in the cases when typical degradation models are candidate.

During the dry season, glaciers contribute significantly to the water supply downstream, especially in areas with seasonal rainfall. It is important to have physical-based glacier models, which are more advanced in quantifying the future dynamics of glaciers and melt distribution. Toward this purpose, an investigation of different numerical modeling tools and their approach is conducted and planned further to incorporate a glacier module into a spatially distributed model called mHM (Mesoscale Hydrological Model, mhm-ufz.org). An open-source tool called MATILDA (Modeling Water Resources in Glacierized Catchments) is used beforehand to implement the glacier entities to the application catchment Maipo Basin in Chile. Due to limited time availability and source of data, the glacier melt of the MATILDA model is integrated into the mHM model to see what the implications would be if the glacier module was implemented from scratch in mHM. The analysis of the glacier hydrology resulting from the Maipo-Glacier model was carried out by comparing the modeled glacier flows with the total observed flows. To assess the credibility of the models, the results are compared based on three goodness-fit measures, specifically r^2Coefficient of Determination), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), and KGE (Kling-Gupta Efficiency). Application of the mHM model in the Maipo basin in Central Chile is performed by using prepared input datasets, showing that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.80 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70 from the starting periods of 1950 to 2020. Overestimation by the mHM model occurs during the late summer season, particularly when temperature decreases. The MATILDA model is used on glacier melt distribution, forcing data is prepared from regional datasets, and a glacier profile is constructed from ice thickness datasets. According to the model, the average KGE result for the years 2012–14 and 2015–18 was respectively 0.44 and 0.41. Glacier melt produced by Matilda is in the range of 58-68 % of the total runoff and the glacier area decreased by 22-23% during the simulation period from 2012-14 and 2016-2018. A pilot sub-basin Olivares is used in the coupling mHM model with initializing MATILDA glacier melt. The new model is underestimated during the seasonal transition in the initial days of the simulation. A considerable portion of the ablation period might be missed as a result of the initial storage quality, true glacier extent, and height distribution being understated. As a conclusion, the mHM Model was capable of predicting runoff well in a mountainous region and could also serve as a monitoring tool for watershed management. There are differences in results between the two models because of the different spatial resolutions and methodologies. MATILDA have a glacier retreat routine that gives better result for the glacier characteristics such as. A new glacier dynamics model needs to be implemented in the future to develop intermediate complexity, bridge catchment, and glacier scales after using the mHM, MATILDA, and mHM with MATIDLA model for analysis of glacier and highlighting the model's deficiencies in the initial period of simulative assessments.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of the development of an over-the-counter (OTC) screening model using machine learning for breast cancer screening in the Asian women population. Data were retrospectively collected from women who came to the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia. Five screening models were developed based on machine learning methods; random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), elastic-net logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features used for the development of the screening models were limited to information from the patients’ registration form. The model performance was assessed across the dense and non-dense groups. SVM had the best sensitivity while elastic-net logistic regression had the best specificity. In terms of precision, both random forest elastic-net logistic regression had the best performance, while, in terms of PR-AUC, XGBoost had the best performance. Additionally, SVM had a more balanced performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity across the mammographic density groups. The three most important features were age at examination, weight and number of children. In conclusion, OTC models developed from machine learning methods can improve the prognostic process of breast cancer in Asian women.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.